B (99:39)
Yeah, I'll probably do this. I'll try to do this. In order of how it's likely to appear in the future, I'll probably get all this wrong, so you can just take it for what it is. AI powered drug discovery began in earnest, full bore earlier this year. The ability of AI to discover new effective drugs to address various disease conditions is for most people who have thought about it a little bit as yet, unfathomable. It's a quality leap. It's nonsense. If you went back to 1985 in a time machine. Forget that. The time machine is also impressive in this case. And you gave someone an iPhone fully charged, and somehow the iPhone worked through the time machine to access the modern Internet, it would be, to the very best engineers, fucking baffling, damn near magic. But now we take it totally for granted. And kids like jump in the pool with their iPhone and they're like, ah, crap, it fried out. I'll just get another one. Who cares? So what I'm about to say all these crazy things. Remember that most humans do linear extrapolation. But the arc of all of history, all of history, including prehistory and biology and physics and chemistry. Chemistry, then physics is exponential in nature. This is not up for debate. It's just. It just is every single human or not human, biological or geological event that you plot on a chart, you need to plot on a log chart. So it gets rid of the exponent, and that's still an exponent. So this is a real thing. And so when we people are like, what is 2035 going to be like? They mostly do a linear approximation extrapolation, but it's also a linear extrapolation with a very low slope. Because most people have an inborn pessimistic bias, which makes sense in the Paleolithic era, in which we evolved because shit sucked. And you expected shit to suck. Like, yeah, your uncle probably got gored by a bison. Every other day, shit was off. So things are going to get much better very quickly and then even faster. Short of machines killing all of us or World War 3, crazy shit's going to happen. Here's roughly how I see the most likely timeline. Again, huge. Just eat the whole salt shaker for this shit. Fuck. A grain of salt, all the salt. But it's not good for longevity. So don't do. As long as your blood pressure is fine, you're good to go. Okay, so probably one of the first things we're going to see is kiboshing entire categories of disease with insanely powerful drugs. We're going to see in the late 2000s, early 2000s. Like, heart disease, gone, cancer gone, Alzheimer's gone. Just gone. Like, don't take my word for it. We already have a category of viral and bacterial diseases that we've combust. Who the fuck has, you know, anyone? Polio, Like, a human. People just don't get polio anymore. Who dies of, like, rickets and like that? Like, it's just. We laugh at it now, but it used to just kill everyone. Can you imagine the 1600s? You're like, dude, scurvy, Not a thing in the future. They're like, you're kidding. Like, no, like, this guy's drinking the Kool Aid. There's no way. Like, also, Kool AIDS in the future. Like, what's Kool Aid? You're like, it's. It's great. It's. It's okay. It's red and it's sweet and it's based on some berry, I'm not sure. So when you combine entire categories of disease like that, you just take morbidity down like crazy. Because living with like chronic cancer or some shit or chronic heart disease condition, it's a different kind of living than living truly health. And in addition to that, it's going to bump up longevity a ton. And like nowadays the average person lives into their late 70s. That might still be true in about eight years or so, but the distribution is going to close substantially. And so the average person might live into their mid-80s, not a ton higher, but like way fewer people are dying. The bottom tail just goes right up. Yep. So that's probably going to be a big thing, probably a little bit later, maybe sooner. Who knows? We're going to get some traction on reverse aging. David Sinclair has spoken about this at length. He was real early to the reverse aging thing. And the way it works in social media and news media is when you have one rat study that does cool shit, people are like, this is it, When's it coming? And it's like, we need some more time to get this going. But there's nothing about aging really that precludes re altering the expression of your own DNA to just do better cleanup and reverse your age as you present biologically, chronologically, no time machine yet. Biologically, it's a tractable problem. There's nothing theoretically about it. That's like, that's just impossible because again, it seems like like the, the genie from Aladdin wouldn't even do, you know, like the. How do you reverse aging? It turns out that your body mostly ages because the ancestral evolutionary pressures to stay alive and healthy and well, for a long time, we were just too r selected for like, you're probably going to die by the time you're 27. So if we put one half of your metabolic pathways into doing constant DNA cleanup, you just suck at everything else and then you die when you're 18. The world is not sufficiently stable for you and there's not enough providence in the world to keep you upright so that you can fuel your body for shit like that. However, if we get age reversal right, both through therapeutics and genetic engineering, we can have a situation where your body's actually like, oh, I'm just never going to like get lazy about these anti aging effects. And you essentially just continue to live in a roughly 22 year old's body. They've already done this in cell cultures. They've already done it in a few small animal models. It is Not a huge leap to do it in grand scale in humans at large with AI power type of shit that 10 years from now might be a legit thing. I did a whole on my other philosophy channel. I've done a whole thing about the implications, philosophically, conceptually, socially of what reverse aging is going to be like. But Chris, can you imagine taking 100 million elderly Americans in 2037, and three months later, they all present as age 22. Physically 22 years old. Cognitively sharp like 22, energy like 22, titties up like 22. What happens to your dick and balls? Something like 22, bro. Nightclub scene. You gotta go back to your old job. Like, holy shit, gold rush. So all this other stuff could very well be on the horizon. There's a chance it just never works out. I would assign. There's a low probability of that. So aging reversal is a big deal. They talk about this thing you brought up earlier, I think off camera, longevity, escape velocity. When true robust aging reversal comes in, that's the spaceship leaving the fucking atmosphere. Because short of getting hit by a bus or getting eaten by a crocodile, you might just never die because you're biologically just always 22.