Podcast
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
Hosted by Jack Farley · EN
Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.
61episodes
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Overvaluation Meets Macro Risk: Why This Massive Asset Manager is Getting Bearish | Jim Masturzo | Research Affiliates
1w ago01:18:45Tap to summarizeLearn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack Farley sits down with Jim Masturzo, Chief Investment Officer at Research Affiliates, to discuss the changing macroeconomic landscape and the underlying flaws of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Masturzo explains that the recent positive correlation between stocks and bonds requires investors to find true diversifiers, though he still sees tactical opportunities in trading range-bound bond yields. The conversation explores the AI-driven market narrative, with Masturzo highlighting that the U.S. market is significantly overvalued at a CAPE ratio of 40 and examining the resulting ripple effects on software stock valuations. Finally, he details his bullish conviction trade on commodities amidst severe geopolitical supply chain risks and introduces his firm's new fundamentally weighted RAFI Growth Index. Follow Research Affiliates on X: https://x.com/RA_Insights Follow Jack Farley on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Market Overvaluation Setup 00:53 Meet Jim Masturzo 01:23 60 40 Under Pressure 02:50 Finding True Diversifiers 06:24 Why Yields Stay Bounded 11:29 Government Backstops And YCC 14:09 Fed Balance Sheet Fears 17:28 Sponsor Break HFGM 19:44 Range Intact Tactical View 25:26 Private Credit Shift Risks 28:36 Stocks Rally And AI Narrative 33:31 CAPE Valuations Explained 36:19 Earnings Growth Skepticism 39:00 AI Adoption Reality Check 45:53 AI Investing Limits 49:26 Why Earnings Forecasts Fail 54:18 SaaSpocalypse and Risk Framework 01:02:37 Valuation Multiples and GAAP Focus 01:06:44 Conviction Trades Commodities and Bonds 01:14:38 Research Affiliates and RAFI Indices 01:16:21 Fundamental Growth Index Explained
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How This Real Estate Investor is Betting on an AI Boom (It’s Not Data Centers) | Tom Shapiro
2w ago01:00:16Tap to summarizeLearn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://fundrise.com/mm In this episode of Other People's Money, GTIS Partners founder and CIO Tom Shapiro breaks down how massive macroeconomic shifts, including AI and inflation, are reshaping the global real estate landscape. He explains why his firm is heavily betting on a San Francisco recovery driven by the booming AI sector, and how they are scooping up properties at steep discounts to replacement costs. Shapiro also details the severe oversupply challenges currently stalling popular Sun Belt cities, alongside the firm's strategic push into industrial logistics to capitalize on domestic reshoring trends. Finally, he shares decades of expertise on navigating the complex Brazilian real estate market, offering a masterclass on global investment strategies in a high-interest-rate environment. Learn more about GTIS Partners: https://www.gtispartners.com/ Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:30 Macro Shocks and Inflation 02:30 AI Disruption Risks 04:27 Tracking Jobs and Households 06:09 Immigration and Rate Politics 08:03 Build to Rent Bill Fallout 11:57 Affordability and Mortgage Rates 14:41 Fundrise Income Fund 16:36 Regional Winners and Losers 17:12 Sun Belt Oversupply Pain 19:57 San Francisco Comeback Thesis 24:35 AI Occupancy and Investment Plays 28:28 Picking Buildings Block by Block 30:02 Picking the Right Building 30:21 Safety and City Recovery 33:39 AI Jobs and Office Demand 35:17 Froth and Real Revenues 37:39 Data Centers NIMBY Debate 39:54 Reshoring and Warehouse Boom 44:09 Real Estate Capital Markets 49:07 Why Brazil Worked 52:46 Brazil Rates and Currency 55:15 Politics and China Pull 58:44 US Outlook and Wrap Up
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Things Are Going to Get Even Crazier: The Macro Regime Shift | Andreas Steno Larsen
2w ago01:08:47Tap to summarizeLearn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm Andreas Steno Larsen, macro researcher from Real Vision, joins Max Wiethe on Other People’s Money to discuss the shifting macro regime where inflation has returned and is pushing US Treasury yields over 5%. They discuss the market’s expectation for interest rate hikes and how the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will react to this environment. They also discuss the other dominant force in markets right now, the AI buildout. Steno Larsen argues that things are going to get crazier before the cycle turns later this year, but in the meantime the shortages in the AI supply chain are creating unappreciated winners in the technology sector. Follow Andreas Steno Larsen on X: https://x.com/AndreasSteno Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:50 Inflation and the Big Macro Shift 01:43 Transitory Inflation Debate 04:19 Bond Trade Timing 06:13 Steep Curve Playbook 09:41 Why Steepening Helps 12:24 Strong Dollar EM Risk 14:35 HFGM Unlimited Funds 16:51 India Data Versus Rupee 18:24 Energy Supply Countdown 21:23 LatAm Underperformance 23:27 AI Inflation Link 26:52 Korea Semis Surge 28:26 Momentum with Earnings 30:39 Quantum Hype Warning 32:24 Semis Cycle Peak Question 34:47 Late Cycle Winners Flip 39:01 IPO Supply and Rotation 43:35 Valuation Metrics Reframed 46:11 Hidden Scarcity Trade 49:21 Goods Inflation Returns 51:15 AI Jobs and Robotics 54:07 White Collar Disruption Map 59:53 LLMs and Bad Facts 01:04:47 Momentum vs. Value Edge 01:06:15 Rapid Fire Outlook and Wrap
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What Doomer Narratives Miss About Private Credit | John Cocke of Corbin Capital
2w ago01:12:40Tap to summarizeJohn Cocke, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Corbin Capital, joins Jack to discuss the world of private credit. With so much discussion over the asset class, John provides some much-needed context. While there are some areas of concern, John rejects the doomer narratives commonly seen on social media and sees opportunity on the horizon. Jack and John also discuss data center financing and the important, yet often missed, details of the private credit space. Recorded on May 15th, 2026. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96 Follow John Cocke on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-cocke-8319295/ Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Check Out Jack & Max on the MTS Livestream: https://x.com/MTSlive
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A Basel III Deep Dive | What to Know About How It Will Transform Banking Globally
3w ago01:16:36Tap to summarizeChen Xu, counsel at Debevoise & Plimpton, joins Jack to discuss the Basel III framework and endgame. The Basel III framework is extremely important to the future of banking and credit. Few people are as qualified to explain this complex agreement more than Chen Xu. Chen explains what Basel III is and how it will affect many different areas of the financial world. Recorded on May 1st, 2026. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96 Follow Chen Xu on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/chen-xu-a483b75/ Read Chen’s Publications https://www.debevoise.com/chenxu/?tab=insightsandpublications Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Check Out Jack & Max on the MTS Livestream: https://x.com/MTSlive
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Why Andy Constan Says The AI Bubble is in Earnings, Not Price
3w ago00:33:25Tap to summarizeLearn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm Monetary Matters is now streaming daily as part of Monitoring the Situation. Join us live on X and YouTube from 4 to 5 PM ET Monday through Friday @mtsituation for live interviews and analysis breaking down the market’s most important situations. This is recording of a recent live interview from MTS. Veteran macro trader Andy Constan joins Monetary Matters live on Monitoring the Situation to discuss why he has 100% confidence that AI stocks are in a bubble. The nuance though is that unlike most bubbles, where the bubble is in unsustainable prices with no earnings, this is a bubble in unsustainable earnings that will eventually fall and make the current somewhat reasonable prices look lofty in hindsight. Constan highlights metrics like the $400 billion in S&P 500 earnings expectations and the over 60% of that is supposed to accrue to AI winners, and argues that based on projected GDP growth that their simply “isn’t enough pie for all of the S&P 500 to eat” without it coming other very important areas of the economy. Follow Andy Constan on X: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Jack Farley on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max Wiethe on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Earnings Bubble Thesis 01:22 Defining a Bubble Regime 04:02 Past Bubbles and Patterns 07:57 Why PE Looks Normal 08:57 GDP Pie Math Reality 13:06 Unlimited ETFs HFGM 15:23 AI ROI and Inflation Risks 18:34 Three Cohorts Funding Compute 23:36 What a Real Pop Looks Like 28:22 Timing and Investor Discipline 30:27 Trading It Collars Not Shorts 33:13 Closing and Sign Off
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“You Don’t Sell Blow-offs” | Andrew Perry on Bullish Technicals of U.S. Stock Market, “Dangerous” Period for Global Equities, and Bull Case for Agricultural Commodities
3w ago00:59:13Tap to summarizeSponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack sits down with veteran macro investor Andrew Perry of Macro Pillars. Perry provides a bullish technical outlook for US stocks, offering specific targets for the S&P 500 while warning against shorting the current momentum on a nominal basis. The discussion explores strategic pair trades, specifically being long US equities while shorting energy-dependent nations like Australia and Germany. Perry also explains the macro drivers behind his long positions in agricultural commodities—including corn, wheat, and soybeans—driven by fertilizer stress and geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Listeners will gain deep insights into why the MOVE index and US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements (QRA) are more critical indicators of market liquidity than the traditional VIX. Finally, Perry details the specific yield curve shifts, moving from bear to bull steepeners, that will signal the next major recessionary trade. Recorded May 11, 2026. This episode is sponsored by the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN). Download our free eBook, "Why Investors Are Increasingly Turning to Commodity ETFs," to explore the macro forces shaping commodity markets today. Download the eBook: insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs CORN Fund Page & Prospectus: www.teucrium.com/corn This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. The prospectus is available at https://teucrium.com/corn. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodities and futures generally are volatile, and instruments whose underlying investments include commodities and futures are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For further discussion of these and additional risks associated with an investment in the Funds please read the respective Fund Prospectus before investing. CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT are commodity pools regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Funds do not track the spot price of corn, sugar, soybeans or wheat. These Funds, which are ETPs, are not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and are not subject to regulation thereunder. Teucrium Trading, LLC is the Sponsor for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT. PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT and is not affiliated with Teucrium Investment Advisors, LLC and Teucrium Trading, LLC. Sources • Fertilizer trade through Strait of Hormuz: International Fertilizer Association (IFA), Global Fertilizer Trade Data; USDA ERS, Fertilizer Use and Price reports. • Corn as heaviest nitrogen user: USDA Economic Research Service, Fertilizer Use and Price (most recent edition). • Input cost / margin impact and acreage-switching scenarios: Framing is conditional and analytical; not presented as projections. Consistent with FINRA 2210(d)(1) standards for educational market commentary. • Fund structure: Teucrium Corn Fund Prospectus (most recent effective date). Marketing Agent: PINE Distributors LLC. 5324752 Sourcing Index • Fertilizer trade through Strait of Hormuz: International Fertilizer Association (IFA), Global Fertilizer Trade Data; USDA ERS, Fertilizer Use and Price reports. • Corn as heaviest nitrogen user: USDA Economic Research Service, Fertilizer Use and Price (most recent edition). • Input cost / margin impact and acreage-switching scenarios: Framing is conditional and analytical; not presented as projections. Consistent with FINRA 2210(d)(1) standards for educational market commentary. • Fund structure: Teucrium Corn Fund Prospectus (most recent effective date).
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Lyn Alden on Macro Consequences of AI and The Stolgard Incident (Monitoring The Situation Replay)
3w ago00:50:10Tap to summarizeLearn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm Jack Farley and Max Wiethe host Lyn Alden to explore the profound economic shifts driven by AI and the semiconductor industry. Alden compares the current rise of autonomous AI agents to the blue-collar manufacturing shifts of the 1980s, expressing continued bullishness on semiconductors due to physical bottlenecks and immense compute demand. She cautions that while tech hyperscalers remain dominant, their massive capital expenditure requirements and lower switching costs may lead to lower returns on invested capital than seen in previous decades. Regarding digital assets, Alden remains constructive on Bitcoin and moderately bullish on stablecoins, which she views as a vital tool for providing "offshore" banking utility to global users with smartphones. The conversation also highlights a "two-speed" or "K-shaped" economy where record-high stock prices diverge from record-low consumer sentiment due to stagflationary pressures and heavy fiscal spending. Finally, Alden discusses her science fiction novel, “The Stolgard Incident,” which envisions a semi-dystopian 2070s where society grapples with ubiquitous AI, virtual reality escapism, and widening wealth gaps. This originally aired on Monitoring The Situation in late April, see below to tune in. Follow Lyn Alden on X https://x.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96Follow Monitoring The Situation (MTS) on X https://x.com/MTSlive Lyn Alden’s book, “The Stolguard Incident,” https://www.amazon.com/Stolguard-Incident-Lyn-Alden/dp/B0GNS9MYB5/ref=sr_1_1?adgrpid=193521879551&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.RJbicCTYIekTrz-Xcqzk7A.nC6zf8DffI2xHZBeqYOHUm48fMahUhOyxmiEmcenTBU&dib_tag=se&hvadid=789707336866&hvdev=c&hvexpln=0&hvlocphy=9060354&hvnetw=g&hvocijid=17622433326543445596--&hvqmt=e&hvrand=17622433326543445596&hvtargid=kwd-2473232811348&hydadcr=17070_13576050_1647189&keywords=the+stolguard+incident&mcid=b89d146b19ee37e6bc43fd9ecdb6775a&qid=1778698355&sr=8-1 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
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Lending Where the Banks Won’t Go: What’s Fueling Europe’s Growing Real Estate Private Credit Market?
4w ago01:02:34Tap to summarizeLearn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://fundrise.com/mm In this episode of Other People's Money, Thomas Lloyd-Jones, Co-founder and CIO of Zenzic Capital, joins the show to unpack the nuances of the real estate private credit market. He explains how the media often conflates direct lending with the broader asset class, overlooking real estate and asset-backed lending. Lloyd-Jones details how increasing banking regulations are forcing traditional lenders to retreat, creating a widening gap for opportunistic credit funds to step in. This podcast is for informational purposes only and not an inducement to invest with Zenzic Capital. Zenzic Capital’s investment products are limited to professional clients only. The information within this podcast should not be relied upon as tax, legal or investment advice. Learn more about Zenzic Capital: https://zenziccapital.com/ Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:52 Private Credit Breakdown 03:32 BDCs And Redemptions 06:35 Allocation Failure Debate 08:47 Regulation and Fragmentation 12:07 Basel III Shift 14:10 Fundrise Income Fund 15:10 Systemic Risk and Leverage 17:36 Banks’ Retreat is Opportunity 20:56 Good vs. Bad Risk Premia 24:39 Senior Finance 28:44 Downside Protection and Spotting Bad Deals 37:48 Macro Matters for Exits 40:13 Finding Fixable Distress 43:22 Geopolitics and Rate Shock 47:01 Preferred Equity Playbook 51:49 When Development Risk Pays 54:52 Student Housing Reality Check 59:40 Macro Allocation Framework 01:01:59 Conclusion
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Why Generative AI Still Can’t Trade | David Wright on How Quant Alpha Actually Is Done With Machine Learning, Decision Trees, and Gradient Boosting
4w ago00:38:06Tap to summarizeTo learn more about Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF ($PQUS), click here: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/ This interview is brought to you by Pictet Asset Management. To learn more about Pictet AI-Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT), click here: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/ Jack Farley sits down with David Wright, co-head of Quantitative Investments at Pictet Asset Management, to discuss the machine learning techniques his team uses in their $30 billion quant franchise, and the degree to which AI has impacted serious quantitative investing. Wright explains why he prefers to utilize many decision trees and use gradient boosting rather than Generative AI to generate return forecasts, citing the need to avoid "hallucinations" and ensure models remain interpretable. The conversation explores their sophisticated investment process, which analyzes over 400 features, including accounting data, market trends, and analyst sentiment, to predict relative stock performance over 20-day horizons. These strategies, which now are included in new ETFs $PQNT (Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF) and $PQUS (Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF) are designed as "passive replacements," aiming to maintain a Beta of 1.0 while aiming to deliver an additional 1–2% annual outperformance over the relevant benchmarks, S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE indices. Finally, Wright addresses the common "black box" misconception of quantitative finance, advocating instead for a "crystal box" approach that provides full transparency into the economic rationale behind every trade. Recorded April 21, 2026. For important information about the fund, please click: https://etf.am.pictet.com/” Important Information Before investing, carefully consider the fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. This and other information can be found in the fund’s prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus, which may be obtained by calling (855) 994-4778 or visiting www.pictet.com/etf. Read it carefully before investing. (In Italic or Bold) Investing in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The fund's principal investment risks include Artificial Intelligence Models and Data Risk, Non-Diversification Risk, Convertible Securities Risk, Rights and Warrants Risk, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Risk and Sustainability & ESG Data Risk. For additional information about these and other fund risks, please refer to the "Principal Investment Risks" section of the prospectus. ETFs are subject to additional risks that do not apply to conventional mutual funds, including the risks that the market price of an ETF's shares may trade at a premium or discount to its net asset value, an active secondary trading market may not develop or be maintained, or trading may be halted by the exchange in which they trade, which may impact an ETF's ability to sell its shares. Shares of any ETF are bought and sold at market price (not NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the ETF. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. Foreside fund services, LLC, distributor. Definitions of terms used in the interview: 1. S&P 500 Index The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the United States. It is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. Because it is weighted by market value, larger companies have a greater impact on the index's performance than smaller ones. 2. MSCI EAFE Index The MSCI EAFE Index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap securities across developed markets around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The acronym stands for Europe, Australasia, and the Far East. It is commonly used as a benchmark for international equity funds. 3. Alpha Alpha represents the "excess return" of an investment relative to the return of a benchmark index. It is a measure of performance on a risk-adjusted basis. "Positive Alpha: indicates the investment outperformed its benchmark after accounting for risk and "Negative Alpha" indicates the investment underperformed relative to the benchmark. 4. Beta Beta measures the volatility—or systematic risk—of a security or portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole (usually the S&P 500, which has a Beta of 1.0) A Beta > 1.0 indicates the investment is more volatile than the market (e.g., if the market rises 10%, the investment might rise 12%) A Beta < 1.0 indicates the investment is less volatile than the market (e.g., if the market falls 10%, the investment might only fall 8%). 5. Basis Points (bps) A Basis Point is a standard unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%.
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