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Hi, this is David. We don't have a regular podcast episode this week as I take some time off and I'm also working on my next book and preparing for the live portfolio cohorts we'll be hosting next month. I recently shared my thoughts on the podcast and in our Insider's Guide newsletter about how AI is affecting me and our business. For example, in the past year the number of newly published books increased by 33% more, most of which were self published with heavy assistance from AI. At least that's what I presume. That compares to a 2% decline in the number of books published in 2024. Another statistic, the number of new iOS apps is up 24% in the past year, compared to 6% increase in the year prior. The reality is we are drowning in new content, video shorts, social media, and even longer content such as self published books. Now, given that volume, I want to be more selective in what I release. I'm focused on depth and meaning, not quantity. And that's why we're doing fewer podcast episodes this year and I'm doing more longer form content. Most of us are using AI either regularly or we're experimenting with it. We're navigating brand new terrain and one of those boundaries we're trying to decide on is to what extent do we cognitively offload to AI or surrender to it. Ezra Klein recently wrote about this in the New York Times. Many individuals and he found as he went to San Francisco, they're sharing everything they can about themselves with AI so that the tools become more effective in helping them, being like them, even acting for them in many cases. And they also he mentioned they're doing it to sort of kind of train the next generation of AI. I would consider it oversharing. I'm way more selective in what I share with AI, but I have been using it a lot, especially this week in preparing for these live portfolio cohorts. Here's some examples. When I'm using Claude's cowork, which is run on the desktop, when you evaluate a portfolio, you're analyzing it, you're trying to one of the things you need to do is determine the expected return and the risk. And we have had an asset allocation categorization spreadsheet where you put in dollar amounts and and it spits out the expected return, the range of return and the risk. We've had that as part of PLUS membership for years, but I wanted to enhance it for PLUS members, but also for these portfolio workshops to add some additional asset classes such as non US small cap stocks manage futures like we talked about in the podcast a few weeks ago. And also add more risk statistics including volatility which is calculated at the portfolio level considering correlation. You know, just like modern portfolio theory and I it's not something we had incorporated because we focused on the maximum drawdown, but we have some additional risk statistics and I use Claude Cowork to expand those spreadsheets. It's very good at working with spreadsheets, not not perfect, don't make mistakes, but it certainly saved me time. I've also used Claus or experimented with it this week is to upload a brokerage statement and then it could categorize those holdings using that asset mix template or that categorization spreadsheet. It it was pre darn accurate. Now once we have a portfolio level, expected return, a range of returns, a volatility assumption as measured by standard deviation, it's helpful to do a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the range of expected portfolio values such as like 10 years ahead, what is the portfolio value based on running a scenario returns with a certain level of savings each year. And I've worked with Claude to develop those AI prompts. So now any LLM can run the analysis and they and it does it using Python. These are examples of cognitive offloading. While I use AI as a tool, I'm still in control of the inputs, especially when it comes to expected returns. We put a lot of time into those assumptions based on the underlying drivers of return. So I control the inputs, but I also understand the outputs, such as this money Carlo simulation. I still need to use my judgment and part of that's seeing where, you know, AI might be making a mistake, which it can do. Still, AI has significantly increased my productivity and combining AI with my knowledge, experience, guidance and judgment will, I believe, make these portfolio workshops more helpful. So let me take a moment just to share what we plan to do with this live portfolio cohort. As I mentioned, this is the first time in 12 years that I'll be working with a small group of investors in real time, walking them through the process of building and rebalancing their investment portfolios. So this isn't a course where I'm just sitting and lecturing. I mean, there'll be some discussion or some formal presentation, but most of it will be showing individuals how to use the tools, how to apply them, and how to make that decision framework to figure out whether their portfolio in its current state is sufficient to fund the retirement as they look out 10 years doing some of that classification categorization Monte Carlo work and then deciding, well, what changes might need to be made in terms of rebalancing. Where are there opportunities? Where are there risks? How can it be simplified? What about asset location? We're going through all the steps in real time and I'm there as a help. I'm not providing specific investment advice, but I'm willing to answer any question. I just I won't tell you what to do, but I'm very comfortable explaining holdings, how things work, how to approach things, and try to be a resource there to help you as you make the final decision. Now, this cohort starts May 5th. It will be limited to only 25 investors, and we're focusing on individuals that are planning on retiring in the next 10 years. Later this fall, we hope to do a portfolio cohort for those that are retired. We're still working on the final pieces, but you can be the first to learn more about joining the waitlist@moneyfortherestofus.com cohort C O H O R T if you join the waitlist, you'll get early access to enrollment, $200 off the final price, and we're sending an introductory email series to kind of help you with some of these portfolio building challenges, but also get your feedback on how we can structure this live portfolio cohort to be of the greatest help. So you can check that out at Money for the rest of us.com cohort C O H O R T I'll be back in two weeks with a regular podcast episode. Next week I'm focused on drafting our monthly investment strategy report for PLUS members. It's going to be a doozy of a report given everything that's going on with oil, the energy markets and financial markets overall. Have a great week. Be back here in two weeks.
