Money Guy Show Podcast Summary

Episode: Vanguard Predicts Market Collapse in 2026 (Are They Right?)
Hosts: Brian Preston and Bo Hanson
Date: February 18, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Brian and Bo dissect Vanguard's 2026 prediction of an impending market collapse and their typically cautious outlook. The hosts critically analyze Vanguard's data, compare historical predictions to actual market outcomes, and provide perspective on how to handle negative headlines. The duo balances humor with actionable advice, urging listeners to focus on sound financial principles rather than fear-driven prognostications. The Q&A segment also covers college savings, ESOP shares, asset allocation, and other listener-submitted money questions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Vanguard’s Market Collapse Prediction

• Recurring Gloom: The hosts note that Vanguard’s annual “Economic and Market Outlook” is a fixture in financial media, consistently casting a cautious—sometimes alarmist—tone (00:11–01:29).
  • Brian: “You can set a clock to it. We'll be covering this probably next year at the same time, same bat place. And, and it, and it will be just as negative as it is currently.” (00:56)
  • Bo: “They released this report. It's called the Economic and Market Outlook. And this year, this is what it said. It says AI exuberance, economic upside, stock market downside. It doesn't sound very good...” (01:29)
• Data Parallels to Dot-Com Bubble: Vanguard compares current five-year equity and real estate gains to those before the 2000 dot-com crash.
  • Bo: “...based on stock market returns, equity wealth increase it's about 44% and real estate is about 28%. So the conclusion that Vanguard drew from this data was it man, it looks like we're a lot closer right now to dot com bubble territory than we are to historical medians.” (03:23)

2. Questioning Projections & Emphasizing Historical Context

• Track Record of Pessimism vs. Reality: The hosts recount how past Vanguard predictions underestimated returns, referencing prior negative headlines and actual market performance.
  • Bo: “2024, the headline was US Equity Valuations need to fall to Return to Fair value... What did the market do in 2024? It actually made 23.3%.” (05:27)
  • Brian: “The market could fall very well. It could fall this year. But... my big takeaway is don't fall prey to the sensational headline.” (06:15)
• No One Knows Short-Term Market Moves: The hosts caution against listening to so-called “market prophets.”
  • Bo: “Be very careful of anyone out there telling you, hey, this is what's going to happen in the next six months... nobody actually knows.” (06:32)

3. Long-Term Investor Perspective

• The Yo-Yo Analogy: Investing is likened to walking up a hill with a yo-yo.
  • Brian: “Even though every time you throw the yo-yo up or down, it's... That’s what day to day volatility in the market feels like.” (07:35)
• Bull vs. Bear Markets (First Trust Data):
  • Bull markets last about 4.3 years (cumulative +150% returns).
  • Bear markets average less than a year (about -32% returns).
• Resilience Over Reaction: The key is to “always be buying” and stick to your plan, knowing that long-term investing historically rewards patience and growth.

4. Practical Advice on Managing Market Anxiety

• Have a Sound Plan: Asset allocation and risk tolerance should be adjusted over time but not in response to headlines.
• “When in Doubt, Zoom Out:” Zooming out on market history reveals more up than down years.
  • Brian: “Bull markets are so much more part of what you can expect than the bear.” (09:00)
• Innovation Grows the Pie: Market growth isn’t a zero-sum game; technology and productivity can result in more widespread wealth.

Listener Q&A Highlights

College Savings: 529 Plan vs. Brokerage

• Flexibility vs. Efficiency:
  • Bo’s Analogy: Saving in a brokerage is like making fire with sticks—possible, but there’s a better way (14:17).
  • Brian: 529s now offer more flexibility (trade schools, K-12, scholarship penalty waivers, even Roth rollovers), plus tax benefits.
  • Bo: “A 529... It’s an incredibly efficient vehicle to save for that goal.” (18:06)
  • Both recommend a mix: Maximize 529 benefits, but use brokerage for additional flexibility if needed.

ESOP Shares & 25% Savings Rate

• Employer equity (like ESOPs) shouldn’t count toward your behavioral savings rate if you’re at $200k+ household income.
  • Brian: “...you're not promised that ESOP will turn into big money for you down the road necessarily, if the company ever runs into any financial issues.” (26:00)
  • Bo: “At a $200,000 income, should that replace or take part in your 25% savings rate?... I think it's a lot like an employer match at that level.” (24:44)

Asset Allocation for Pension Holders

• Q: Should a 33-year-old with a strong pension hold their age in bonds in their Roth IRA?
  • Bo: “That seems like way, way, way overly conservative to me... Your wealth multiplier is not going to be what it could be.” (29:57)
  • Brian: Leverage the pension as the conservative part of your portfolio and maximize tax-free growth in Roth accounts with equities.

Rapid Fire Q&A (Timestamps Refer to MM:SS)

• Roth Overload: Can you have too much Roth? (37:06)
  • Bo: “No such thing as too much Roth, unless you're sacrificing current tax benefits.”
  • Brian: “There is too much Roth if you become so miserly that you miss out on life.”
• Emergency Fund or HSA/Roth First (at age 25)? (38:41)
  • Both: Follow the financial order of operations (“You got to get your highest deductibles covered... then emergency fund before HSA/Roth.”)
• How to Get Over Not Wanting to Spend? (39:26)
  • Bo: Focus on shared experiences/memories or loved ones; Brian: Do a “happiness audit” to align spending with genuine fulfillment.
• Roth Conversions: Where do they fit in the financial order of operations? (41:15)
  • Bo: Backdoor conversions at step 5; regular Roth conversions in steps 7/8.
• Best Olympic Event? (42:27)
  • Brian: Figure skating/ice dancing; Bo: Two-person luge.
• Six Figures in Cash: Overkill? (43:41)
  • Both: It depends on your life stage and risks. Excess cash is justifiable in special circumstances, but most should invest per “financial order of operations.”
• Why Use Pre-Tax or Taxable Accounts When Roth is Good? (44:50)
  • Bo: For lower incomes, Roth focus makes sense; employer pre-tax matches fill in. Higher incomes might still benefit from pre-tax deductions.
• Joint or Separate Finances for Married Couples? (46:02)
  • Both: Prefer joint accounts to avoid “power out of money” issues, but recognize room for nuance with complex situations.
• Down Payment: Is More Than 5% Smart? (47:09)
  • Both: Base on whether you’re ahead or behind the curve and balance with investments/future goals.
• South Dakota Client Inquiry (48:25)
  • The firm welcomes South Dakota residents, offering “personal CFO” guidance.

Notable Quotes

• Brian (on Vanguard predictions):
  “... always end up. Because when things are better, everybody's like, oh, it's okay. Things turned out better than he anticipated...” (00:56)

• Bo (on media negativity):
  “...someone says so and so Market Predictor has predicted 50 of the last three recessions, right? Because they keep saying it's going to be bad...” (06:32)

• Brian (on investing mindset):
  “Investing is like walking up that hill with the yo yo... That’s what day to day volatility in the market feels like.” (07:10)

• Brian (on 529s):
  “...if you did it K through 12 for like private school...was capped at $10,000 a year. They just boosted it to $20,000 a year...now even you can fund Roth IRAs. When they first come out into the workforce with 529s, they've really created a lot of avenues...” (17:02)

• Bo (on assets for low-income workers):
  “A lot of people at lower incomes... will likely build the majority of their assets in Roths...” (45:14)

Key Timestamps

• 00:05–04:18: Overview of Vanguard’s negative outlook and their “dot-com bubble” comparison
• 05:27–07:10: Review of Vanguard’s past inaccurate bearish calls and the danger of listening to alarmist predictions
• 07:10–09:00: Long-term investing mindset (“yo-yo up the hill”), volatility normalcy, and behavioral psychology
• 12:36–18:26: In-depth discussion on 529 plans vs. brokerage accounts for college savings
• 23:44–28:53: Handling ESOP shares in savings rates for high earners
• 29:41–34:28: Asset allocation advice for listeners with strong pensions
• 35:23–54:58: “Rapid fire” Q&A segment covering various financial planning topics

Tone & Takeaways

Tone:

• Candid, conversational, occasionally playful
• Heavy use of analogies, audience engagement, and practical scenarios

Takeaway Messages:

• Ignore sensational headlines—no one can predict short-term market moves reliably.
• Stick to fundamentals: diversified investing, consistent saving, focusing on long-term goals.
• Financial products and strategies (like 529s and Roth conversions) have evolved—leverage them more efficiently for your situation.
• Don’t let fear or excessive caution paralyze you; wealth building requires participating through ups and downs.
• Good planning considers your behavior, risk tolerance, and bigger financial picture—not just numbers on paper.

For Further Information

• Visit moneyguy.com/resources for calculators and financial tools referenced in the show.
• The hosts invite listeners (especially South Dakota residents!) interested in financial planning to reach out via moneyguy.com/become-a-client.
• Check out the show’s new Clips Channel for bite-sized highlights.

Summary prepared for listeners who want the insights, key moments, and practical advice—without the fluff.