Podcast
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Hosted by Chuck Jaffe · EN
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe is leading the way in business and financial radio. The Money Life Podcast is a daily personal finance talk show, Monday through Friday sorting through the financial clutter every day to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
71episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
SLC's Mullarkey: Market needs war resolution, or an inflection point is coming
3d ago00:56:39Tap to summarizeDec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation at SLC Management, says that earnings are strong and should keep the stock market rolling, but that signs of weakness shown by the bond market and concerns about how the war in Iran is impacting oil are going to be limiting factors. Mullarkey worries that a longer conflict could turn oil into a global crisis, where rationing and other measures could create more severe and long-lasting economic troubles. If, however, the situation can be resolved quickly, Mullarkey says the shadows over hanging the market should clear quickly, providing a real boost going forward. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, looks at the bond market's sell-off from the end of last week, and while investors can cheer bond yields reaching their year-to-date high, he notes that higher rates could stunt economic growth and hurt the stock market's trajectory. The big thing he expects to impact markets in the week ahead, however, is Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, where he is expecting gonzo numbers but a disappointed market response, simply because investor expectations are sky high. Plus, he discusses community protests over data centers, noting that there are economic consequences buried under the headlines, as limiting data center growth could curtail capital expenditures by tech companies and limit the speed with which artificial intelligence can reach its potential. Plus, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs puts Shake Shack back in the Danger Zone, noting that the stock — which currently trades in the $60 range after being as high as $144 in the last year — has a negative book value, and is using accounting measures that are clear signs of trouble.
Transcribe →DeCarley's Garner: Market is 'starting to get wildly overdone'
6d ago00:57:49Tap to summarizeCarley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, says the stock market looks unbalanced to her, with the current rally built around mechanical issues, like an explosion of option sales that impact market performance. She is expecting a pullback, and says things could get ugly — with the Standard & Poor's potentially losing at least 1,500 points, — about 2,000 points — which is why she has moved an overweight part of her own portfolio into Treasuries. She sounds a note for caution during the conversation, noting that "Markets are unforgiving in the short run, but in the long run they are very forgiving. Almost always, you will get an opportunity — it might be months or years down the road — to get back at a price that is reasonable and something you are comfortable with, as opposed to chasing it." Veteran market observer Nick Sargen, a regular contributor to The Hill, returns to The Big Interview to discuss the updated version of his book, "Global Shocks: An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets." Sargen says the market is going through a lot of events — from the war in Iran to the fighting in ukraine, and more, but these events haven't had the historical impact on the market expected by these shocking events because artificial-intelligence spending has been so big that it just keeps the market powering along. "The optimism over A.I. in the stock market is having more impact on investors than the pessimism that consumers are currently feeling." John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors and the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, returns to the show to discuss how recent troubles in business-development companies created a haves and have nots" among BDCs, with the ones that have exposure to software loans suffering and struggling while the ones that aren't in software represent a strong opportunity to get double-digit yields and solid returns on equity.
Transcribe →Baird's Mayfield: The Fed is done cutting; market's not done rising
1w ago00:57:43Tap to summarizeRoss Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird, says that the Federal Reserve "is going to be very hard pressed to find a reason to cut [rates] here," and he thinks that if the central bank does have to make rate reductions down the road, "it won't be for reasons investors would be excited about." Mayfield says he remains bullish, noting that "a consolidation period is probably in order," setting up a volatile summer setting up a continuation of the bull market later in the year, barring any sort of exogenous shock. And speaking of shocks, Mayfield addresses what he sees as building signs of a market bubble, and while he says they bear watching, he is not expecting that kind of action to result from current conditions. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes Roundhill Memory — a brand-new fund that has raked in billions of dollars in assets in just weeks since it opened — his "ETF of the Week," noting that the fund has gotten off to a gangbusters start but that the fund's focus on just a few hot stocks should have investors concerned about whether it's a flash in the pan or here to last. Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares, returns to the Market Call, and focuses largely on business-development companies, which got hammered due to software lending in March, rebounded sharply in April but remain unloved by the market today. GraniteShares' HIPS U.S. High Income ETF invests largely in BDCs and closed-end funds; Rhind outlines the current yield outlook in that space and for master limited partnerships.
Transcribe →ProShares' Hyman: Earnings will keep powering market past headlines
1w ago00:59:36Tap to summarizeSimeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that we have "had the most stunning earnings season in pretty much anybody's recollection," exceeding expectations and making it that the market is more focused on the earnings story than anything else, including bad news about war, inflation and more. He sees that trend continuing, even if inflation rises or stays sticky, until or unless it bumps into a recession, which he sees as unlikely. Hyman also discusses ProShares' new ETF based on the S&P 500 Buyback Aristocrats Index, and how that fund and a sister dividend aristocrats fund can be used to add consistency to a portfolio for investors who fear the bad news. He also discusses why he is overweighting small-cap now, seeing it returning to its historic role of providing above-average market returns. Rachel Perez discusses Choice Mutual's 7th annual Funeral Preferences Survey, which found that nearly one in five Americans have no financial plan whatsoever for their funeral, leaving family or friends to shoulder the burden, which averages in the $8,000 range but which can easily be double or triple that cost. In the Market Call, Wayne Thorp, chief executive officer at BetterInvesting — which is part of the National Association of Investors — brings the well-developed principles of the group's Stock Selection Guide to look for high-quality growth companies that can be held for the long term.
Transcribe →Sanjac Alpha's Wells: Interest rates will rise this year, even if the Fed cuts
1w ago01:01:23Tap to summarizeAndy Wells, chief investment officer at Sanjac Alpha, says he expects the stock market to continue on its positive roll and wouldn't be surprised if it's up by about 6% from current levels over the next six months, but he also says that investors should expect interest rates to go up this year — even as he thinks the Federal Reserve will look to make a cut — because there is so much incoming bond supply driven by the artificial-intelligence boom and the need to fund A.I. projects. Further, Wells says that investors' bond funds are becoming "a tech bet" as the market changes and tries to absorb the massive funding needs behind new technologies. Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says the current trend can drive the market higher, though the trend would need more breadth and participation to generate more optimism. He says investors should be using volatility to their advantage, especially in areas where consumer sentiment is weak, to buy into sectors that are on sale. Specifically, he is looking for alternative ways to play artificial intelligence, such as with energy companies and other adjacent industries. Martha Moore, chief economist for the American Chemistry Council and survey chair for the National Association for Business Economics discusses NABE's latest Business Conditions Survey, released Monday, which showed that corporate economists see shrinking profit margins and, as a result, higher prices being passed along to consumers, which could keep inflation higher for longer. Despite that, the economists remain modestly positive on the next calendar quarter. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to view a portfolio that just set a personal peak, but that is overloaded with growth stock funds.
Transcribe →Does the media's soft vs. hard data coverage mislead investors?
1w ago00:59:45Tap to summarizeVince Duffy, news director, Michigan Public, joined Chuck at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Conference in Philadelphia to discuss how the media handles its coverage of soft versus hard data and whether those stories — and others — are politicized. Duffy also talks about coverage priorities and the difficulties of balancing news that consumers need with the things they most want. Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, joins the optimists in his assessment of last week's jobs data, though he does suggest the numbers have room to flex and will make it hard for the Federal Reserve to cut rates quickly or deeply. He also discusses the wild GameStop bid to buy eBay, and revisits Jane Street Capital, the market maker he discussed a week ago, covering why it has become so important and why foreign regulators believe the company may be gaming the system. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, looks at the cash burning tendencies of some popular stocks — including two members of the Magnificent 7 — and puts them in the Danger Zone, noting that the burn rates suggest that there are potential troubles ahead. Plus Chuck gives his surprising takeaway from the SABEW event, one he says he formed mostly during the long drive home, which he interrupted to fill his gas tank at prive levels that were painful.
Transcribe →Touchstone's Aarts on why oil prices are causing higher bond yields
2w ago00:58:47Tap to summarizeErik Aarts, senior fixed income strategist at Touchstone Investments, says the last few weeks have shown a disconnect between stock and bond markets, with the bond markets getting particularly cautious while stocks have raced back to record highs. What the bond market is worried about, Aarts says, is that higher oil prices will bleed into another round of higher inflation. ... At its base case, that's why yields are up today." Aarts also discusses how high-yield bonds are not living so much up to their label as "junk bonds," and that much of that high-risk exposure has moved to or stayed in private credit markets, changing the risk-reward profile of high-yield bonds and making them more attractive than other categories now. For his ETF of the Week, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes in an unusual direction, picking an emerging markets sovereign debt fund that gets poor grade from Morningstar but that Rosenblth says fits the bill for a growing group of investors looking for overseas bond exposure that's tied to the dollar. Wall Street veteran Anthony Gallea, chief executive at Working Profit and publisher of the Working Profit Investment Letter, adds the twist of finding a catalyst to a Benjamin Graham-Warren Buffett style of value investing. In the Market Call, Gallea discusses how that works and where he sees potential catalysts now.
Transcribe →Westwood's Sanghani on how war has changed the oil demand outlook for years
2w ago01:01:15Tap to summarizeParag Sanghani of the Westwood Holdings Group, manager of the firm's Enhanced Energy Income and Enhanced Midstream Income ETFs, says that the ongoing war in Iran has pulled volumes from inventories early, creating synthetic demand that will keep prices higher for several years. That benefits the oil companies and stocks that Sangahni likes, but it hurts by creating a tax at the gas pump, which he expects to remain in place longer than most projections. Sanghani says he currently likes the entire spectrum of energy investments, not just oil and gas, noting that power demands are expected to keep growing beyond current capacity constraints for years to come. Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments, says that productivity, GDP growth and earnings are "what matters," and that the headline risks that are driving consumer sentiment are "distractions" from a market backdrop that is solid. He says inflation remains the big risk, but notes that the investor sentiment is creating opportunities, particularly in closed-end funds where they are reflected in discount trends. Plus, Stephen Lubben, a law professor at Seton Hall University, discusses his recent book, "To Protect Their Interests: The Invention and Exploitation of Corporate Bankruptcy," and how the nation's bankruptcy laws have been used in ways that don't protect the broader economy from the failure of big firms but instead protect wealthy power brokers from facing financial consequences of mistakes and misdeeds.
Transcribe →Ocean Park's St. Aubin: Market is overvalued but downside risk isn't too high
2w ago00:58:14Tap to summarizeJames St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, says that the stock market's flirtation with record highs is showing some overvaluation — increasing the potential downside risk — but he only expects that risk to be realized "if the narrative changes, if something comes out of left field that shakes the whole foundation of what is building market optimism today." His most likely candidate for that confidence-breaker is not war or current events, but some change in the artificial-intelligence boom that has been driving spending and earnings growth. St. Aubin says that if negative data on sentiment and feelings winds up showing up in changed habits and spending patterns, it could create economic problems, but until that happens, he says inflation and other concerns are not likely to derail the market's uptrend. Andrew Chanin, chief executive officer at ProcureAM — which runs the Procure Space ETF (ticker symbol: UFO) talks about how space may be the next frontier in investing, particularly in light of the excitement coming off of the recent Artemis moon mission, which highlighted not only the potential investment avenues but the prospects for private companies to drive the future of space exploration. He explains how concepts like "solar space energy" could help to power Earth-bound needs for more energy, and how satellite changes are impacting communications industries and more. Plus, researcher Allison Hadley discusses a study conducted for Partnercentric.com, which focused on Americans' impulse spending, which found that more than four in five consumers have made at least one impulse buy already this year, with an average of seven purchases made in the first quarter alone, and a median spend of $50 per purchase.
Transcribe →Commonwealth's McMillan: Trouble's still coming, but not for a while
2w ago00:57:05Tap to summarizeBrad McMillan, chief economist for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that there's "an enormous feel-bad headline economy," but the underlying fundamentals are solid enough to keep earnings growing, which will make it that the market does well, or at least avoids a protracted, deep downturn. McMillan worries that when the supply-chain breaks for food, for holiday shopping and more several months from now that it could trigger a recession, but he says that, for now, the numbers that normally signal that a grizzly bear market — a combination of a recession and a crashing market — aren't lined up to happen yet. Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, also is staying out of the recession camp, but he does "suspect that we can't just go to the moon right away," and thinks the market could be in for a 5% haircut this month. Newton says that earnings and the economy have been better than expected, which is why he is telling people to "put on the blindfold and put on earphones" to concentrate on strong technical trends and economic data that remain in good shape. Cary Sinnett, senior manager of financial planning at AICPA, discusses the group's survey which showed that while nearly 80% of Americans report having money set aside to cover living expenses and emergencies, the depth of those savings varies dramatically by age and gender, and the even among the savers less than one in five has enough on hand to cover more than a year's costs.
Transcribe →