Money Stuff: The Podcast

Episode: Loads of Vultures: Funds, Agents, Bets

Hosts: Matt Levine & Katie Greifeld

Date: October 3, 2025

Overview

This episode explores major shifts shaping Wall Street’s hedge fund landscape, focusing on the decline of mid-sized multi-strategy funds, the rise of “agents” for hedge fund talent, and the wild west of prediction markets (especially sports betting) in the US. Matt and Katie use wit and technical insight to discuss industry consolidation, economic realities for fund managers, and legal gray zones in new financial products.

Key Discussion Points

1. The Demise of Eisler Multi-Strategy Hedge Fund

[03:30–11:15]

• Background: Edward Eisler’s multi-strategy hedge fund is winding down. Not part of the “big four” (e.g., Millennium, Citadel), the fund struggled with costs and unremarkable returns amid heightened market efficiency and fierce competition.
• Industry Evolution:
  • "It used to be that if you wanted to start a hedge fund, you started a hedge fund...Now, increasingly the hedge fund business is dominated by these big multi-strategy funds like Millennium and Citadel." — Matt Levine [04:12]
  • Mid-sized funds are squeezed out as top talent and capital consolidate at the major players.
  • Eisler pivoted from single-manager to multi-strategy in 2021, only to face the harsh realities of competition and economics at scale.
• Why the Pivot Failed:
  • "One of my readers emailed to be like, his mistake was pivoting to being a multi-strategy fund." — Matt Levine [05:32]
  • To compete as a multi-strat, you must reach a massive scale, otherwise you'll lose talent and clients to bigger firms.
  • There remains a niche for specialized single-manager funds, but multi-strategy survivors must be enormous.
• Talent Retention & Costs:
  • High “pass through” fees and expenses at Eisler prompted investor and internal anxiety.
  • "The pass-through fees are traditionally a hallmark of modern pod shops...paying performance fees to the individual portfolio managers regardless of the performance of the overall fund." — Matt Levine [07:32]
  • Reports suggest Eisler had “far too many junior people who didn't know how to take risk” as more seasoned talent departed. [09:03]

Notable Quotes:

• “The big funds are pretty good at identifying talent ... and so they end up with a lot of the good portfolio managers. If you're a good portfolio manager, your name's not on the door. You're kind of doing it for the money.” — Matt Levine [09:48]
• “Apparently some insiders noted Eisler's more mediocre portfolio managers will now simply fan out across the industry and dilute returns elsewhere. That's just so brutal.” — Katie Greifeld [10:40]

2. The Era of Hedge Fund “Agents” vs. Recruiters

[14:05–21:43]

• Context: Discussion centers on Ryan Walsh, profiled as the “first” talent agent for hedge fund managers, as described in a Wall Street Journal story.
• Recruiter vs. Agent:
  • Recruiters are traditionally paid by firms, not portfolio managers. Agents, by contrast, represent the talent (the portfolio manager) and take a cut of the deal — structurally more aligned with agents in sports or entertainment.
  • "A traditional headhunter is probably more aligned with the employer, whereas an agent is more aligned with the employee." — Matt Levine [15:02]
  • The distinction is “nuanced,” and both ultimately broker deals motivated by commission.
• Why Agents Now?
  • Top hedge fund PMs, despite business savvy, may lack market transparency or the time to negotiate lucrative terms.
  • "If there's an agent who collates all of that information, he's going to provide value to you." — Matt Levine [17:17]
  • They joke that AI researchers, paid even more and often less worldly, truly need agents.
• Business Model Viability:
  • The agent business is booming as long as multi-manager funds dominate. If the model shifts, agency demand could evaporate.
  • Ryan Walsh, in one year, helped 12 clients land deals worth $180 million. [21:28]
  • "The pitch of 'I will take a single-digit percent when the number is very large' is actually pretty appealing." — Matt Levine [21:11]

Notable Quotes:

• “It's funny to have an agent for a hedge fund manager who... probably does have a pretty good sense of the market for portfolio managers... unlike a quarterback, who's not a business person.” — Matt Levine [16:07]
• “I think there's a range of people...a lot of people who have killer instinct as electronic traders, but don't want to negotiate with their boss for more money.“ — Matt Levine [17:43]

3. Prediction Markets and the Blurring of Sports Betting

[24:43–36:40]

• Kalshi’s Innovation: Kalshi now offers “same game parlays” — combinations of bets on a single sporting event — traditionally the domain of sportsbooks, not prediction markets.
• Regulatory Gray Area:
  • Kalshi bills itself as “the only legal sports gambling in all 50 states” but insists it’s a “prediction market,” not a sportsbook.
  • The distinction: prediction markets match buyers and sellers (peer-to-peer), while sportsbooks set odds and bet against customers directly.
  • "A sports book is on the other side of the bet from you. And a prediction market is just a platform where people can bet against each other." — Matt Levine [28:58]
  • Matt argues in practice, real-world differences are shrinking, especially with approaches like market-making in parlays.
  • "No individual retail gambler is like, I want to predict that one of these six things will not come true...Real retail gambling bet. The person on the other side of the parlay has to be a market maker." — Matt Levine [31:17]
• Market Impact: The move prompted publicly traded sportsbooks’ share prices to drop, even though Kalshi remains small.
• Legal Risk:
  • If Kalshi prevails in court, it could leapfrog DraftKings and FanDuel by being legally available everywhere and enjoy more favorable tax treatment.
  • "I think they're very strongly betting on in Trump's CFTC [Commodity Futures Trading Commission], they can do whatever they want and no one will stop them." — Matt Levine [35:03]
  • DraftKings’ CEO cited Kalshi’s legal troubles as a reason to avoid prediction markets—for now.
  • Matt speculates the next innovation: football ETF-style products. [36:31]

Notable Quotes:

• "Robinhood is like we're democratizing access to an emerging asset class... The emerging asset class here is same game parlays, which is just like a product for gamblers." — Matt Levine [25:54]
• "In either case, you're kind of facing ultimately some algorithmic price setter, some professional who sets the prices and tries to... set the prices so that... the market is just like any other market maker.” — Matt Levine [33:13]

Memorable Moments

• Birds & Vultures Metaphor: Opening banter about Matt's dead backyard possum and local vultures morphs into an extended riff on vultures (as scavengers) as a metaphor for hedge fund “talent sieves” and the industry at large. [02:00–02:43]
• Creative Agent Pitch: Katie and Matt riff about whether they'd want agents, with side jokes about AI researchers needing the most help. [17:52–18:34]
• Kalshi’s Legality Circus: Katie asks if, under truth serum, prediction market founders truly believe there’s a meaningful difference from gambling. "Okay, 1. No. 2." — Matt Levine’s deadpan. [28:51]

Important Timestamps

• 03:30: Intro to Eisler fund’s closure, hedge fund industry consolidation.
• 09:03: Talent drain, insider perspective on Eisler’s decline.
• 14:13: Wall Street's first hedge fund agent – the recruiter/agent debate.
• 17:57: Matt’s take: AI researchers need agents even more than hedge funders.
• 21:28: Agent business by the numbers — $180M in deals in one year.
• 24:43: Explaining Kalshi’s prediction market, sports betting gray area.
• 31:17: Technical explanation of same game parlays and market makers.
• 35:03: Regulatory bets and future landscape for prediction markets and sports betting.

Conclusion

The episode is a wry, deeply informed exploration of how Wall Street’s current structure shapes talent, compensation, and innovation—with multi-strategy hedge funds swallowing the market, agents emerging to help talent navigate the new reality, and legal uncertainty fueling the evolution of betting and prediction markets. The world of finance, as Matt and Katie see it, is as much about vultures and bets as it is about big strategies and bigger players.