Money Stuff: The Podcast
Episode: Man Not Bird
Date: March 13, 2026
Hosts: Matt Levine & Katie Greifeld
Episode Overview
In this episode, Matt Levine and Katie Greifeld dive into the recent financial maneuvers of Bill Ackman, particularly the simultaneous IPOs of Pershing Square USA (a closed-end fund) and Pershing Square Inc. (the hedge fund management company)—a rare bundling technique. The conversation expands to private credit market turbulence, liquidity issues, redemption "gates," valuation concerns, and the charged topic of private credit in retirement funds. The hosts also dissect a legal dispute involving Kalshi’s prediction market over Khamenei’s departure from office, analyze the ethics of war-related event betting, and reflect on regulation versus innovation.
This episode blends deadpan wit with sharp financial analysis, keeping the tone both irreverent and deeply informed.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Bill Ackman’s Double IPO Move
[03:44–13:04]
- Background: Bill Ackman returns to attempt the IPO of Pershing Square USA (closed-end fund), coupled with Pershing Square Inc. (management company).
- Previous attempt in 2024 failed due to lack of investor appetite.
- This time, investors in the closed-end fund get bonus shares in the management company as a sweetener.
- Quote:
"If you buy 100 shares of Pershing Square USA, you get 20 shares of the management company. So you get one fifth as many shares... But like, shares are a meaningless concept. You can divide a company into as many shares as you want."
—Matt Levine [04:41]
- Economic math: Estimated "bonus" value is $5–10 per $50 share, reflecting the potential value of management company shares.
- The goal is to offset the typical discount at which closed-end funds trade.
- Quote:
"They hope [the bonus is] enough to overcome the tradition that closed-end funds trade at a discount."
—Matt Levine [05:48]
- Market skepticism:
- The closed-end fund is likely to trade at a discount regardless, hence the incentive.
- Stigma and practical impediments around trading below IPO price, especially different from company IPOs.
- Portfolio focus:
- Unlike "shiny" venture funds, Ackman’s fund holds large-cap public stocks, betting on Ackman’s skill and persona more than unique assets.
- Quote:
"The thing you're selling is one, Bill Ackman's future ability to pick good investments and then two, just like his Persona... The way that Tesla is the way to access Elon Musk. This is a way to access like his brand."
—Matt Levine [10:00]
- Unique structure:
- Deep dive on Pershing Square’s fee structure: preferred performance fee allocates the first 5% of returns to shareholders, the rest to employees.
- Quote:
"They’re like carving up the fees in a nice way where shareholders place a high value on the low part of the fees... and employees place a high value on the upside lottery tickets."
—Matt Levine [12:33]
2. Private Credit Market: Liquidity, Redemption "Gates," and Vibes
[13:04–21:56]
- Industry mood:
- "Vibes are atrocious" in private credit, with headlines worsened by prominent redemption limits ("gates").
- Quote:
"Vibes are atrocious."
—Katie Greifeld [13:04]
- Recent events:
- Example of HPS/BlackRock BDC gating redemption requests above the 5% cap.
- Employees at rival firms (e.g., Blackstone) pitching in funds to meet redemptions.
- Feedback loop: Each new round of redemption requests is higher than the last—market nerves escalate.
- Rationales and criticisms:
- Gates seen by insiders as protective, despite negative headlines.
- Psychological redemptions: Uncertainty around fundamentals vs. herd mentality.
- Push for transparency:
- Apollo aims to conduct more frequent, third-party portfolio marks (daily instead of quarterly), both for investor reassurance and as a business differentiator.
- Quote:
"If Apollo is really confident in its marks, then doesn't have to worry about a run on the bank because it can pay people at what it thinks is at the right value."
—Matt Levine [18:01]
- Potential consequences:
- Illiquidity risk: Structural arguments favoring private credit in retirement funds, but practical investor behavior (desiring more liquidity) undermines this logic.
- Bipartisan political warnings (Elizabeth Warren, Treasury Secretary) against increasing retirement fund exposure to private credit.
- Quote:
"The vibes of doing it that way are bad."
—Matt Levine [20:24]
- JP Morgan’s role:
- Reports of JP Morgan marking down private credit loans, possibly being more conservative than other lenders.
- Quote:
"When you're getting your leverage from JP Morgan, they kind of win the valuation disputes."
—Matt Levine [21:37]
3. Prediction Market Drama: Kalshi & War Bets
[22:43–29:29]
- Kalshi controversy:
- Legal case over Kalshi not paying out full value on bets regarding Ali Khamenei’s departure—due to rules prohibiting payouts if the event is precipitated by death (for legal, ethical reasons regarding assassination markets).
- Quote:
"Prediction markets... specifically do say you can't have bets on war or assassination for pretty good reasons about not wanting to encourage assassinations."
—Matt Levine [24:03]
- User experience vs. fine print:
- Tension between consumer protection (need for clear UI) and financial regulation norms (read the whole contract).
- Quote:
"As a matter of consumer protection and the user interface... that's kind of a reasonable claim. And then as a matter of this is a commodity derivatives exchange. You should be reading the whole contract when you trade..."
—Matt Levine [24:53]
- Comparison to Polymarket:
- Polymarket, less regulated as of now, simply pays out without the same legal hurdles.
- On war betting innovation:
- Discussion around the ethical grayness of markets tied to war/violence. "Innovation" can be a euphemism for risk or questionable motives.
- Quote:
"When you hear innovation, that means, like, scam. Like, if you have something good, you're like, this is good, here's why it's good. But if you have something bad, you're like, it's innovative."
—Matt Levine [28:12]
- Memorable moment:
- Shane Copeland (Polymarket founder) tells a conference that people in the Middle East use Polymarket odds to decide whether to sleep near a bomb shelter, underscoring both the information value and the ethical complexity of such prediction markets.
- Quote:
"We’re looking at polymarket to decide whether we sleep near the bomb shelter. We look at it every day..."
—Shane Copeland, as quoted by Katie Greifeld [28:34] - Matt quips:
"If you're like in the Middle east debating whether to sleep near a bomb shelter and you see the odds going up and you think, well, that's probably an insider trader, then you should sleep in the bomb shelter."
—Matt Levine [29:09] - And the dark reality:
"If it's insider trading, you're making money by dropping bombs."
—Matt Levine [29:28]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Closed-End Fund IPOs:
"You just walked up to a bar when you were 16, 17... and the bartender was like, nobody who's not underage wants a hurricane."
—Matt Levine [02:53] (light anecdote) -
On Private Credit Market Gating:
"It's kind of like a vicious cycle or feedback loop."
—Katie Greifeld [15:58] -
On Marking Assets:
"You kind of want the intermediate moves. And so if you have some person, some outside person saying, yeah, today it's worth 97, that might inspire some confidence among your investors."
—Matt Levine [17:44] -
On Innovation as a Marketing Smokescreen:
"When you hear innovation, that means, like, scam... If you have something bad, you're like, it's innovative."
—Matt Levine [28:12] -
On Prediction Markets and Insider Knowledge:
"It is more informative if there’s insider trading, which has always been the taboo thing that real prediction markets heads will say..."
—Matt Levine [29:17]
Important Timestamps
- Bill Ackman’s IPOs & Strategy: [03:44–13:04]
- Private Credit Market Instability: [13:04–21:56]
- Prediction Market Dispute (Kalshi): [22:43–27:28]
- War Bets, Innovation, & Ethics: [27:28–29:29]
Episode Tone
- Mix of technical insight, dry humor, and candid skepticism.
- Matt’s deadpan delivery is lightened by Katie’s direct questioning and banter.
- Frequent asides, self-awareness, and transparency regarding both market mechanics and media narratives.
This episode is a characteristic snapshot of Money Stuff: a blend of high-level financial critique and daily Wall Street reality, balancing skepticism, market mechanics, and the weird human foibles driving money “stuff.”