Money Stuff: The Podcast

Episode: "Perhaps a Ballroom"

Date: March 6, 2026
Hosts: Matt Levine (Bloomberg Opinion columnist), Katie Greifeld (Bloomberg News reporter & anchor)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Matt Levine and Katie Greifeld return from a brief hiatus to break down several headline-making Wall Street stories. They dive deep into the high-stakes Warner Brothers acquisition drama, analyze the latest tremors in private credit and liquidity, and dissect the peculiarities of ETFs holding private assets like SpaceX. The conversation, as always, combines wit, skepticism, and sharp analysis of the latest in finance.

Episode Breakdown

1. Return from Hiatus

Timestamps: 02:14–03:28

• The hosts explain their recent absence: vacation schedules and an accidentally unrecorded episode ("the greatest episode...never recorded").
• Matt jokes about releasing just Katie’s side of the lost audio as an avant-garde segment.
• Both prep for upcoming industry conferences (Matt: Tulane M&A in New Orleans; Katie: an ETF conference in Vegas).

Quote:

"We actually had an episode we recorded. Except when I say recorded, I mean we performed, but we accidentally did not record."
— Matt Levine (02:30)

2. The Paramount–Warner Brothers–Netflix Merger Saga

Timestamps: 04:25–14:42

Background and Bidding Drama

• Katie recaps the state of play: "I left for vacation thinking that, okay, Netflix has kind of got this in the bag...and they did not have it in the bag."
• Matt lays out the bid sequence: Paramount bids $30/share, Warner leans towards Netflix’s more complex (but higher-valued) offer, Paramount raises to $31/share, Netflix walks.
• Paramount is set to buy Warner for $31/share; Netflix exits, collecting a breakup fee.

Merger Structure and Its Oddities

• Paramount, much smaller than Warner, is leveraging itself massively for the acquisition—up to 6x its own market cap, with help from Larry Ellison.
• A $3 billion rights offering aims to bolster the equity base and slightly reduce the resulting debt.

Key Insight:

"What doesn't make sense from a corporate finance perspective is Paramount, which is teeny, buying Warner, which is big."
— Matt Levine (06:26)

Deal Risks & Regulatory Wrangling

• Warner’s board worried about the deal’s financing—would be the largest leveraged buyout (LBO) ever, presenting risk.
• Regulatory considerations: Paramount's bid seen as faster/easier in D.C. than Netflix's.
• Alleged influence: "President Trump told Sarandos not to overpay for the company." (Katie, 11:51)

Human Element & Cynicism

• Katie empathizes with Paramount, repeatedly rebuffed: "If I was in Paramount’s shoes, I would just feel really bad all the time." (12:33)
• Matt: The board's job is simply to get the best price; ultimately, "there had to have always been some price" Paramount could pay.

Strategic Take

• Some speculate Netflix could scoop up the merged company in a few years if the debt proves crippling.

3. Private Credit and the BCRED Situation

Timestamps: 16:33–24:24

• Katie and Matt discuss the liquidity crunch in non-traded private credit funds, specifically Blackstone’s BCRED.
• Due to high redemption requests, Blackstone executives (25+ senior leaders) personally funded some investor exits at par value—a show of confidence.

Quote:

"I don't want to... if I think they're worth a hundred cents on the dollar and everyone's panicking, I want to buy at 90 because I should get a discount."
— Matt Levine (19:41)

The Boaz Weinstein Trade

• Boaz Weinstein offers to buy interests in these illiquid vehicles at 75 cents on the dollar—capitalizing on retail investors’ desire for liquidity amid nervousness.
• The hosts debate the tactic: value of immediacy/liquidity, fundamental portfolio quality, and the impact of retail panic.

The Psychology of Retail

• Katie questions if retail confidence in private assets is permanently dented.
• Matt bets on investors’ short memories but notes right now “no one’s doing a retail private credit push.”

4. The Perils of Private Assets in ETFs

Timestamps: 26:03–33:50

XOVR (Crossover ETF) & SpaceX Exposure

• Focus: The ERShares Private Public Crossover ETF (“XOVR”) holds SpaceX via a special purpose vehicle (SPV).
• Problem: ETF’s outflows caused illiquid SpaceX stake to exceed the SEC’s 15% cap (hitting as high as 44%).

Valuation Oddities & Expenses

• Morningstar highlights the ETF’s returns don’t match SpaceX’s valuation boom—performance is almost entirely explained by public holdings.
• Theory floated that SPV expenses/fee structures may dampen the effect.

Quote:

"This is like the opposite of private credit... Everyone's like, those marks should be much higher."
— Matt Levine (27:22)

Regulatory Gaming & Market Structure

• Portfolio managers, not the SEC, classify the liquidity of holdings—creating incentives to stretch definitions (as in the Baron First Principles ETF, “RONB”).
• Matt argues, "SpaceX is more liquid than a lot of public stocks," thanks to secondary markets.

Arbitrage & ETF Mechanics

• Some investors use ETFs to gain specific exposure (e.g., to SpaceX) by buying the ETF and shorting out the public holdings, isolating the private company’s returns.
• ETF’s marketing relies on rare private asset exposure; but if the mark-to-market doesn’t deliver, outflows occur.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the lost episode:
  "We should do a Space Ghost Coast to Coast thing..."
  — Matt Levine (02:44)

• On deal making discipline:
  "Could you pay one more dollar? And you're like, no. It's amazing. It's an amazing display of discipline."
  — Matt Levine (11:10)

• On private credit optics:
  "It's a good story, it's a bad story."
  — Katie Greifeld (18:54)

• On the illiquidity trade:
  "People now want this liquidity. And if people really want liquidity, they should pay for liquidity. And Boaz will be the one to get paid."
  — Matt Levine (22:31)

• On private equity in ETFs:
  "There's a continuum of liquidity, and SpaceX is more liquid than a lot of public stocks."
  — Matt Levine (31:10)

Key Takeaways

• Warner-Paramount Deal: A classic scenario of a smaller company taking on enormous leverage to swallow a larger target, with significant risk for the merged entity—especially when financing is supplied by a deep-pocketed backer (Ellison). Netflix’s walk-away is seen as a move of both financial and negotiating discipline.
• Private Credit Angst: Illiquidity has reared its head in popular credit funds, prompting unorthodox measures to calm rattled retail investors. Opportunists like Boaz Weinstein are trying to exploit the value of liquidity in times of stress.
• Private Assets in Public Wrappers: ETFs that add private stakes (like SpaceX in XOVR) run into both regulatory and valuation headaches—showing how market structure and fund mechanics can create wild imbalances or arbitrage opportunities.
• Market Psychology: Investor memory tends to be short—but headline scares can slow or halt whole sectors’ retail momentum, at least temporarily.

Episode Structure & Timestamps

| Segment | Approx. Timestamp | |--------------------------------------------|----------------------| | Hiatus explanation | 02:14–03:28 | | Warner Bros–Paramount–Netflix saga | 04:25–14:42 | | Private credit & BCRED redemptions | 16:33–24:24 | | Private assets in ETFs (SpaceX, XOVR) | 26:03–33:50 |

Tone & Style

The conversation is equal parts deadpan and incisive, mixing technical clarity with wit. The hosts are self-deprecating and skeptical of industry spin, with a clear focus on demystifying complex financial maneuvers for a broad, finance-savvy audience.

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Contact:

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This summary covers all major topics and notable moments. For full context and flavor, tune in to the episode!