Shameful Secret Heart

Summary

Money Stuff: The Podcast

Episode: Shameful Secret Heart
Date: May 29, 2026
Host: Matt Levine
Co-host: Katie Greifeld

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Overview

In this engaging episode of Money Stuff, Matt Levine and Katie Greifeld reunite after some personal adventures—Katie’s trip to Ireland and Matt’s minor home disaster—to dissect the latest in Wall Street, finance, and the myriad oddities at their intersection. The centerpiece: a deep dive into the anticipated SpaceX IPO, the "Elon Musk premium," and the unusual governance of Musk-led companies. The conversation segues into Robinhood’s new AI-enabled trading bots, fanciful agentic finance, and wraps with spirited takes on the "enhanced" (doping-allowed) sports games as well as creative athlete financing in baseball.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Personal Catch-Up and Banter

• Birthday talk: Katie just celebrated hers, with Matt’s birthday upcoming.
  • "It's weird." (Matt, 02:13)
• The dynamic between sharing personal milestones and privacy, in a winking reference to social security numbers and the “shame” of birthdays.
  • "Some people are so cagey about their birthdays." (Katie, 02:18)

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2. SpaceX IPO: Hype, Musk Premium, and Index Inclusion

[03:29 – 16:55]

SpaceX IPO Filing & Valuation

• SpaceX has filed for IPO, expected to go public mid-June.
• Financials:
  • Around $18B annual revenue, currently unprofitable.
  • Target valuation discussed: $1–2 trillion (a staggering “Elon Musk premium”).

AI vs. Space: Confusing Projections

• The prospectus is heavy on space imagery but most revenue projections pivot to enterprise AI.
  • "The prospectus begins with 12 pages of photos and illustrations of rocket launches and Mars colonies. And then it's like we're going to do enterprise AI." (Matt, 05:06)
  • Company’s narrative: immediate (space services), medium-term (enterprise AI), and future (Mars colonies).

The "Elon Musk Premium"

• Investors price Musk companies far above traditional metrics.
  • "That's a hundred times revenue for a money losing company. I think that's an Elon Musk premium." (Matt, 06:22)
• Track record: Early SpaceX investors have seen significant valuation gains despite scant profits.
  • "If you put money into SpaceX, you have more money now." (Matt, 06:47)

Index Fund Dilemma

• Inclusion of SpaceX in major indexes (S&P 500, Russell 3000, Nasdaq 100) is controversial.
• Debate over rule-bending to fast-track inclusion due to low initial free-float (many shares locked up).
• Many passive investors feel forced into risking exposure to Musk’s volatile creations.
  • "If you are a passive index investor, you can't have standards. You can't be like, oh, but this company is bad. Right? That's not how it works." (Matt, 08:41)
• Idea floated: create indexes specifically excluding Musk companies (“S&P 500 ex-Elon Musk”).
  • "Give it to them...it would sell like hotcakes." (Matt, 09:05)

Governance and “Unchecked Musk”

• SpaceX will be structured for extreme Musk autonomy: supervoting stock, freedom to allocate corporate opportunities, and stringent barriers to litigation.
  • "The governance of this company is Elon Musk can do whatever he wants. Right. He has 85% voting control. He's supervoting stock." (Matt, 14:33)
  • "There’s no checks on him whatsoever." (Matt, 15:17)
• This is seen as a reaction to the legal challenges Musk faced with Tesla’s pay package in Delaware.

Risk for Index Fund Investors

• Many index investors are uncomfortable with these governance risks.
  • "Index funds...they don't get what they want, they get what the market wants." (Matt, 16:55)
• Speculation: If the Musk model succeeds, other tech CEOs may demand similar unchecked power.

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3. The Future of Agentic Finance – Robinhood & AI Bots

[19:47 – 27:12]

Robinhood’s New Feature: User AI Agents

• Robinhood to allow users to connect AI “agents” to accounts, with supervised sandbox limits.
  • Example: automated mean reversion trades or “buy the dip” strategies.

Theoretical vs. Practical Agent Trading

• Matt posits that the future of trade execution isn’t new ETFs but user-controlled AI agents.
  • "Agents will be the universal wrapper because...you’ll just type the idea and then your agent will do the laborious piecing together." (Matt, 20:23)
• Potential: users can program trades, credit card purchases (buy sneakers if on sale), or even sports bets.

Risks and User Behavior

• Free trading enables more frequent (and possibly reckless) strategies.
  • "If you're doing those a hundred trades a day, like, what are the odds that you and your bot have come up with a trade idea that not only beats the market on a backtest, but that beats the market after the actual transaction costs of trading on Robinhood?" (Matt, 25:03)
• Expect emergent, possibly herd-like, retail behavior as bots let users automate trending strategies.

Human Psychology & The “Shameful Secret Heart”

• Matt highlights that with AI agents, users can pursue odd or “shameful” strategies without embarrassment.
  • "If in your shameful secret heart...you want to do a trade, like, buy every stock whose ticker begins with C...you'd be too embarrassed to ask. I love thinking about, like, the human psychology element." (Katie, 26:22)
• Notable, quotable line:
  • "If in your shameful secret heart...you want to do a trade...you'd be too embarrassed to ask." (Matt, 26:22)

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4. Enhanced Olympics & Human Limits

[30:35 – 34:46]

The "Enhanced Games" – Doping Allowed

• Katie recaps the first Enhanced Games (Las Vegas), which allow performance-enhancing drugs.
  • Despite hype and financial backing, only one world record was set (in swimming), and technical glitches marred the broadcast.
  • "There were some technical glitches...The bigger thing was that you had three athletes who were described by the organizers as clean. They didn't take any drugs. They won their events." (Katie, 31:52)

Was It a Success?

• Matt's take: records will fall if enough elite (but not quite Olympics-bound) athletes compete and prize pools grow.
  • “If taking drugs allows them to break a world record, that's a pretty good case for drugs.” (Matt, 32:36)
• Katie argues true performance requires innate talent and hard work, not just drugs.
  • "You need God given talent. You need to work really hard. You can't just take drugs." (Katie, 34:34)
• Enhanced Games group shares plunge post-event (down ~40%).

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5. Financing Professional Athletes: The Tatis Jr. Case

[35:26 – 40:45]

Big League Advance & Selling Future Earnings

• Story of baseball player Fernando Tatis Jr.:
  • Signed a deal for $2M upfront in exchange for 10% of future MLB earnings during his minor league days.
  • Achieved a $340M contract but sued Big League Advance, calling the agreement predatory/usurious.
  • He lost on procedural grounds: contract stands.

Is It Predatory or Just a Hedge?

• Some argue Tatis didn’t need the money due to his star prospect status and wealthy father.
  • "Anyone with two eyes could see that he would one day become a star and baseball's bloated contracts...10% of his future earnings was going to be much greater than a $2 million upfront payment." (Katie, quoting NY Post, 38:10)
• Matt notes these contracts function like a VC portfolio—many fail, so the winners pay back multiples.
  • "If you are the players and you're the minor league player who takes an advance and then doesn't make it to the majors, that was a good trade for you for sure...If you're Fernando Tatis Jr....you make $340 million." (Matt, 37:43)
• Taking the deal is rational financial hedging, even if it later feels expensive.
  • "When you enter into a hedge and then things work out great, your hedge is a waste. But...sometimes you lose money on a hedge, but that's good." (Matt, 40:18)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On enterprise AI and hype:

  • "The prospectus begins with 12 pages of photos and illustrations of rocket launches and Mars colonies. And then it's like we're going to do enterprise AI." (Matt, 05:06)

• On the Elon Musk premium:

  • "That's a hundred times revenue for a money losing company. I think that's an Elon Musk premium." (Matt, 06:22)

• On index investor reality:

  • "If you are a passive index investor, you can't have standards...you're taking the market's judgment." (Matt, 08:41)

• On unchecked Musk governance:

  • "The governance of this company is Elon Musk can do whatever he wants." (Matt, 14:33)

• On agentic finance and trading psychology:

  • "If in your shameful secret heart...you want to do a trade...you'd be too embarrassed to ask." (Matt, 26:22)
  • "I did love that, though I will say I was sitting on the path this morning, reading that, thinking about my own shameful secret heart." (Katie, 26:53)

• On the Enhanced Games:

  • "There were some technical glitches...The bigger thing was that you had three athletes who were described by the organizers as clean. They didn't take any drugs. They won their events." (Katie, 31:52)
  • "You need God given talent. You need to work really hard. You can't just take drugs." (Katie, 34:34)

• On athlete contracts as hedges:

  • "When you enter into a hedge and then things work out great, your hedge is a waste. But it's like, you know, sometimes you lose money on a hedge, but that's good." (Matt, 40:18)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Birthday & personal banter: 01:48–03:01
• SpaceX IPO, financials & Musk premium: 03:29–09:16
• Index fund dilemmas & governance issues: 09:16–16:55
• Robinhood AI, agentic trading, and trading psychology: 19:47–27:12
• Enhanced Games (doping in sports): 30:35–34:46
• Athlete financing (Tatis Jr. story): 35:26–40:45

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Final Thoughts

This episode is a quintessential Money Stuff mix: sharp, irreverent, and deeply informed. The hosts’ banter makes highly technical subjects (from index rules to financial engineering) both accessible and entertaining. The recurring theme: finance is driven as much by human foibles—our “shameful secret hearts”—as by logic or rules, whether we’re hyping Mars, betting on bots, or hedging our future like major league stars.

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Listen for:

• Matt’s ability to dissect complicated financial structures with wry humor
• Katie’s grounded skepticism and relatable reflections
• The duo's friendly ribbing and tangents, from secret sci-fi novels to the logic of “drug Olympics”

For further reading: Subscribe to Matt Levine's Money Stuff column at Bloomberg Opinion, or watch Katie Greifeld on Bloomberg TV’s "The Close".

Transcript

[Katie Greifeld]

Hi, I'm Kelly Cavagnaro, Managing Director, Head of North America Institutional Distribution at Janice Henderson Investors we believe working together is the way to work better. Like combining your portfolio plans and our in depth strategy. Your valued assets and our valuable insights. Your mission and our vision working in harmony to seek the right investment opportunities. Janice Henderson Investors Investing in a brighter future together.

[Matt Levine]

So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now a Global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions. Resolving 94% of common questions. Not noise proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off. Deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business IBM.

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[Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts, Radio news.

[Katie Greifeld]

Matt, it's nice to be back in studio with you.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah. We've each had a series of adventures.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah.

[Matt Levine]

The car crashed into my house. You went to Ireland.

[Katie Greifeld]

It's insane. Those two events are not related.

[Matt Levine]

No, it'd be weirder if they were.

[Katie Greifeld]

I'm a year older, two weeks older,

[Matt Levine]

but yeah, across the milestone. Happy birthday.

[Katie Greifeld]

Thank you. It was last Monday.

[Matt Levine]

My birthday is.

[Katie Greifeld]

It's around.

[Matt Levine]

It's coming.

[Katie Greifeld]

It's coming.

[Matt Levine]

It's weird.

[Katie Greifeld]

It's fine.

[Matt Levine]

Social Security number is.

[Katie Greifeld]

Some people are so cagey about their birthdays.

[Matt Levine]

I guess I shouldn't be.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah, it's like, don't, don't, like, don't be ashamed.

[Matt Levine]

Happy birthday, Katie.

[Katie Greifeld]

Thank you, everyone.

[Matt Levine]

Send your birthday wishes to Katie.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah, for me and Matt. Just. You can send them to me.

[Matt Levine]

We have a close to overlapping birthday.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah.

[Matt Levine]

You and I had like birthday parties a day apart once, right?

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah. I went to your birthday party.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah.

[Katie Greifeld]

I was going to say the number.

[Matt Levine]

Leap the number.

[Katie Greifeld]

That was fun. Okay.

[Matt Levine]

I didn't go to yours because it was like in the far reaches of New Jersey. But I heard it was a wild time.

[Katie Greifeld]

You should have gone.

[Matt Levine]

I should have gone.

[Katie Greifeld]

Well, my baby showers there, so you should go to that one.

[Matt Levine]

I hear that.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah, yeah.

[Matt Levine]

Also a wild time. Fire trucks?

[Katie Greifeld]

No. Maybe. I don't know.

[Matt Levine]

Depending on how wild it gets. Hello and welcome to the Money Stuff podcast, your weekly podcast where we talk about stuff related to money. I'm Matt Levine and I write the Money Stuff column for Bloomberg Opinion.

[Katie Greifeld]

And I'm Katie Greifeld, a reporter for Bloomberg News and an anchor for Bloomberg Television.

[Matt Levine]

I got so many emails from people being like, are you on vacation? Because it's like a bit that every time I go on vacation, Elon Musk does some wild thing. And it's not like literally only when I go on vacation. And in fact, I was not on vacation last week. But you were.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah. You were ready and waiting to.

[Matt Levine]

I was primed to write about the SpaceX IPO.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah.

[Matt Levine]

Which they've made the public filing for an IPO that is supposed to go

[Katie Greifeld]

in like a couple weeks, like mid June.

[Matt Levine]

Mid June, yeah.

[Katie Greifeld]

There's a. It was interesting to see all the different numbers. As you said, it seems like the AI is taking up a lot of cash.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah. Right. The basic financial situation here is like they have, you know, a kind of goodish business of flinging satellites into space and more importantly like charging people for satellite service. They have had until recently a sort of money pit for building a frontier AI lab that is not necessarily the most revenue generating frontier AI lab. But now they've sort of switched like, like a little too late for the IPO filing. They're now like a AI infrastructure company that basically rents data centers through anthropic. So, you know, whatever. But yeah, they've spent a lot of money on AI. They've made more of their money on space. But to me, the interesting thing is those sort of projections. They talk about their total market, which is a. It's just a universe number you throw around for. Here's like where we could make money. And you know, they say we've identified the largest TAM in human history or whatever, $28 trillion. But almost all of that is enterprise AI. Right. The prospectus begins with 12 pages of photos and illustrations of rocket launches and Mars colonies. And then it's like we're going to do enterprise AI.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah.

[Matt Levine]

And there's like a near term play of we make money actually sending rockets into space. Then there's like a medium term play of we're going to make trillions of dollars doing enterprise AI, even though we just started that a couple months ago. And then there's like a long term plan of we're going to build Mars colonies. Right. It's like a strange U shaped curve of space and then AI and then more space. There are projections of how we're going to make money. It's like this is an AI company and I don't know if that's the story that investors are hearing or interested in, but it is sort of the, when they look around to be like, how can we justify a $2 trillion valuation? It's we're going to sell a lot of enterprise AI software.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah. This is what we're going to do

[Matt Levine]

in the meantime before the Mars colony becomes viable. That and orbital data centers, which are now like they've gone from like a glimmer in Elon Musk's eye to everyone being like, oh yeah, orbital data centers.

[Katie Greifeld]

Like a thing that you say with a straight face.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah, exactly, exactly. Like I have laughed the first time but now it's like, yeah, of course.

[Katie Greifeld]

Where else would you put them? It makes sense. Yeah, it's going to be interesting. This is also something else we've talked about on the podcast is the Elon Musk premium that Tesla shares enjoy. And I wonder if that's going to transfer to SpaceX.

[Matt Levine]

They have you know, like a 18 billion annual revenue run rate and lose money and like all of the numbers that are being talked about for the IPO are low to mid 1 trillions to like 2 trillions to from there. That's a hundred times revenue for a money losing company. I think that's an Elon Musk premium.

[Katie Greifeld]

It sounds like it quite a large one. Yeah, that's fair.

[Matt Levine]

I make fun of Elon Musk a lot, but if you put money into SpaceX, you have more money now.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yes, that's true.

[Matt Levine]

Not necessarily on a profit basis, but on a valuation basis. People have made a lot of money with Elon Musk and so there's a reason that people keep putting a premium on investing with them. Will that eventually run out? Will people who buy in the IPO be disappointed that it doesn't justify a $2 trillion valuation? Maybe. I don't know. But there's going to be an Elon Musk premium. Even if this is a super disappointing ipo, it'll be an Elon Musk premium

[Katie Greifeld]

and it'll also be in a bunch of indexes.

[Matt Levine]

It'll be in a bunch of indexes.

[Katie Greifeld]

Boy, there's a lot of consternation.

[Matt Levine]

I was thinking about this. I had an email from one person. I'm a regular retail investor. I put money into the S and P. Is there any way for me to short Elon Musk? And the answer is sure. Short SpaceX. If you want to get your. Then it goes up 10x and you lose your shorts. I totally understand and I think I'm more sympathetic than most people to the idea that the big indexes have to include SpaceX on an accelerated basis. Like I think that's right. Like I think when you're like the S and P or the Russell 3000 or even the NASDAQ 100, like you are more or less saying we are the stock market, right? Or like at least we're the large cap companies. Or like in the asset case or like the big tech companies listed on nasdaq. Like it would be a dereliction of their job to not include in their index a gigantic return driving, super high profile company that is a public company. Like they just have to include SpaceX. Like I totally get it. And people are mad because they're like waving their rules. And it's like they're waving their rules really mad. They're really mad and they're waving their rules to include this giant company. And I'm very sympathetic to it. But I will say that so many people are mad about it that there should be a competitor index that's just like the s and P500 without Elon Musk. Right? My general view is like, if you are a passive index investor, you can't have standards. You can't be like, oh, but this company is bad. Right? That's not how it works. You're taking the market's judgment. If the market's judgment is that SpaceX is worth $2 trillion and that's the

[Katie Greifeld]

market, that's what you signed up for.

[Matt Levine]

That's what you signed up for. But just empirically a lot of people don't want to sign up for that. And so you should give them the other thing. It doesn't matter. It's aesthetically displeasing to be like, wow, it's an index fund with that Elon Musk. But that's what people want. Give it to them.

[Katie Greifeld]

It's like EMX China.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah, exactly. It's like ESG indexes where it's like most of the s and P500 but not the bad companies. Right? Like you do the same thing with Elon Musk. It would sell like hotcakes well.

[Katie Greifeld]

And if it didn't that also too would be interesting. Like all of this hand wringing. Just that.

[Matt Levine]

Right. Part of the handwriting is people are mad about their index funds being invested in Elon Musk. This drives me a little nuts, but part of it is active managers being like, well we're benchmarked to these indexes and SpaceX is going to be a huge driver of under or over performance. Either it'll go up a lot or it won't. And the only way for us to be safe in keeping our jobs is to kind of hug the index on that one. Right. And if we buy no Space x and at 10x's then we will look terrible against the index that we're benchmarked to. Yeah, your job is to actively manage. You're supposed to get it right, but nonetheless people are really mad about it and it's going to be the most attention getting company in the index until OpenAI goes public.

[Katie Greifeld]

It's interesting to point out that we also saw Russell make the decision to fast track SpaceX.

[Matt Levine]

It's like the Russell 3000. It's every company, they have to fast track every company.

[Katie Greifeld]

It's crazy not to, but it's probably worth pointing out that NASDAQ did win the listing for the SpaceX IPO after they agreed to let SpaceX in early to the Nasdaq 100.

[Matt Levine]

I know, but I don't think that these index providers, I mean maybe past that because playing three dimensional chess or whatever, I don't think these index providers are, oh, we have to kiss up to Elon Musk. I think they are consulting with the users of the indexes, index funds and investors generally. And they're like, is this a public company? Yes. Well then it should be in the list of public companies. I don't know.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah, well the fact that it isn't just NASDAQ does add credence to that.

[Matt Levine]

People are mad about indexes monkeying with their float requirements. And in fact it looks like SpaceX's float will be, it's actually available free of float, will be pretty low for the first six months or so. A lot of shares will be subject to lockup and so only on the order of 5% of shares will trade. And so if you force all the index funds to squeeze into that 5% of shares, they're going to push out the price a lot. I don't know how binding that is. A lot of the indexes have float adjustments where it's not like you have to buy the entire free float. And also the biggest Index of the S and P, which is not going to add it for six months or so. It'll have more free float by then because the lockups will expire. But yeah, day one, there's going to be a lot of index. Day five in the case of the Russell, day 15 in the case of the Nasdaq, which is when it'll be eligible for the index, there'll be a lot of index demand and not a lot of supply. Supply. And that could be have weird dynamics for prices.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah, you pointed this out in one of your columns. But 15 days, I mean, fine, five days does seem a little quick. Like it'll, it feels like it'll still be funky at that point when a

[Matt Levine]

company goes public like s and P500 funds are not buying in the IPO because who knows when it'll be added to the S and P. There's going to be significant like Russell and NASDAQ index demand for this company very predictably within three weeks after, you know, one to three weeks after the ipo. And so, you know, like, will hedge funds be buying in the IPO to deliver in their index arb strategy? Yeah. And so there's going to be essentially index demand for these shares in the ipo. And that's like a little unusual. Right. I don't really know the numbers, but like people have said $75 billion of stock coming in the IPO, which is a giant IPO.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah.

[Matt Levine]

The valuation is one thing, but then the just amount of stock being issued is huge. And some of that is going to go to institutional investors who like the stock and go to meetings and build some valuation model and come to some price and put in an order at a price and get allocated the stock. But some of it is going to come from really like price insensitive demand, which is like, you know, 30% or whatever the deal is going to retail. And retail is like generally in offerings is assumed to be price insensitive. Right. Like the retail just prices at what the institutional price is. And so if you have 30% going to retail, you have a lot of price insensitive demand. And then some of it is going to effectively go to index funds which are like effectively price insensitive.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah. Well, you brought up the $75 billion and definitely the amount of the float that's available is also one of the reasons why people are upset about sort of the rules being bent here because I think that's like 5%. But you think about that absolute number like $75 billion. I feel like the percent becomes a little bit less meaningful.

[Matt Levine]

Well, it depends. If there were $80 billion of index demand, that would be a big deal, but I don't think there will be because it's not the S and P day one. And the indexes all have adjustments. The index inclusion is not based on the entire market cap. It's based on some multiple of the float.

[Katie Greifeld]

Mm. Something I was just thinking about. So this IPO is expected, what, June 11? It's expected on a Thursday. What are we gonna do?

[Matt Levine]

Oh, wow.

[Katie Greifeld]

I don't know. Live podcast. Yeah. We should come out with a really

[Matt Levine]

strong, like, start trading as we, like, walk in here.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah. Geez Louise.

[Matt Levine]

Maybe we can get him to move it up.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah, I mean, just DM him.

[Matt Levine]

He's gonna price on a Thursday.

[Katie Greifeld]

I think so.

[Matt Levine]

And then I'll trade on Friday.

[Katie Greifeld]

So I need to think about this. We were trying to plan it for television.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah. We're having governance a little bit. The governance is crazy. It's not that crazy because, you know, we talk about the Elon Musk premium. It's like the governance of this company is Elon Musk can do whatever he wants. Right. He has 85% voting control. He's super voting stock. He also gets to a point, more than, you know, 51% of the directors, regardless of his voting power, because he has the special stock. He doesn't have to. He has no obligation to, like, give the SpaceX any corporate opportunities. So if he wants to start a new AI company or a new space company, you just do it.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah.

[Matt Levine]

And he can't be sued for, like, breaching his fiduciary duties. He can basically not be sued for securities fraud. If you sue for securities fraud, you have to do it in Texas state court, and there's all this stuff. And you really can't sue for, like, preaching fiduciary duties. You need to have 3% of the stock to do that, which, like, is tens of billions of dollars. And you wouldn't do that if you didn't like Elon Musk. So it's really just. There's no checks on him whatsoever. And I do think that that is how SpaceX has been run up till now.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah.

[Matt Levine]

Has worked out well for shareholders. I think a lot of the shareholders of SpaceX are. There are some quibbles about the X, a high merger or whatever, but for the most part, the shareholders of SpaceX are pretty happy with how Elon Musk is around the place.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah.

[Matt Levine]

And I think that Elon Musk and a lot of investors like, yeah, just letting Elon Musk do whatever he wants is the right way to run this company. And the stuff that happened to Tesla in Delaware where he got sued for getting paid too much, was not the right way for Elon Musk to be governed and he should get to do what he wants. And they are fixing the mistakes of Tesla by going public this way with SpaceX. I think that's a reasonable analysis. But I also think that as we just talked about, a lot of the people who will buy the stock in the near term are index funds.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yes.

[Matt Levine]

And they don't like that. No, that's not their kind of thing.

[Katie Greifeld]

If you don't want SpaceX exposure, just buy an ESG fund. It seems neat.

[Matt Levine]

The ESG and Elon Musk relationship is interesting, right? Because it's like he is in many ways very environmentally friendly and in other ways not so ESG governance, not so much. There's this really bizarre precedent setting management friendly governance of this company. And I wrote like, yeah, that's what people want. You're investing in SpaceX, that's what you want. People like, what about the index funds? Index funds? The deal with index funds is they don't get what they want, they get what the market wants.

[Katie Greifeld]

Right.

[Matt Levine]

So that's the deal they're signing up for. But it is a real new precedent in how public companies are governed. And if it goes well, what we saw with Elon Musk's moonshot pay package is that every other tech CEO is like, I want a trillion dollars if people copy the Elon Musk precedent. Because everyone wants to be Elon Musk. And so I think you'll see other companies go public with no constraints on their CEOs. And like, not all of them will be Elon Musk.

[Katie Greifeld]

Hi, I'm Kelly Cavanaro, Managing Director, Head of North America Institutional Distribution at Janice Henderson Investors. We believe working together is the way to work better. Like combining your portfolio plans and our in depth strategy, your valued assets and our valuable insights, your mission and our vision working in harmony to seek the right investment opportunities. Janice Henderson Investors Investing in a brighter future together.

[Matt Levine]

The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across hr, IT and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's Create Smarter Business.

[Public Investing Announcer]

IBM support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds and crypto. And they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called Generated Assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R and D spend small cap stocks with improving operating margins or the S&P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on Public you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and builds a one of a kind index. You can even backtest it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks, go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market and paid for by

[Matt Levine]

Public Holdings Brokerage Services by public investing

[Public Investing Announcer]

member FINRA SIPC advisory services by public advisors SEC registered advisor crypto services by ZeroHash sample prompts are for illustrative purposes only, not investment advice. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete [e-mail] Disclosures.

[Matt Levine]

So Robinhood like announced, we're going to let you hook up your AI agents to our trading account and you'll have a special sandbox where they can't lose all of your money, but they can lose as much money as you give them. And then you can type in a box like they have some examples. Like an active trader can backtest the mean reversion strategy to see how it performed historically and deploy it to automatically buy oversold stocks and sell when they revert to the mean. So stuff like that, you can like type in a box like, hey, here's a trade idea and then your bot will do it for you. And I read about this this week and I what I said was like, you and I have talked and I have written about how eventually every trade will be an etf.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yes.

[Matt Levine]

And like the ETF will be like the universal wrapper for trade ideas. And now I'm like, no, I'm wrong. No, it's not that. It's agents. Agents will be the universal wrapper because like you'll be able to think of whatever trade idea you want and instead of like laboriously piecing together stocks and options and whatnot to implement it, you'll just type the idea and then your agent will do the laborious piecing Together.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah, I think that makes sense for trades. But again if you're just. You want to buy indexes.

[Matt Levine]

Oh, index is fine. Yeah, yeah. But what has happened in the last few years is that like ETFs have been not just a wrapper for index fund buy and hold ownership, but also long short pair trade strategies, single stock, auto call, all sorts of nonsense. And all that nonsense is going to just be agentic AI and ETFs will be index funds again. And it's a little sad for me.

[Katie Greifeld]

I mean this is in your, this is in your vision of the world. There's a lot of steps to make that happen.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah. We're early days of Robinhood trading. In fact, they don't. They only have stocks right now. Like eventually it will be. Your agent can do options and crypto and prediction markets and then all the real fun will happen.

[Katie Greifeld]

But for now it's stocks and it's also credit cards. Right. Like you can instruct the agent to make purchases.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah. Which is not a thing that only Robinhood has been working on, by the way. Neither is the brokerage stuff. Like public had a big announcement about agentic brokerage stuff. But, but yeah, like the, your, your credit card, you can like type in a box like buy me these sneakers if they get cheap and then it'll do.

[Katie Greifeld]

It's just fun. I, I feel like you can imagine a myriad of ways where this goes wrong, you know?

[Matt Levine]

Yeah, sure.

[Katie Greifeld]

Especially I mean trading. Yes. But also with the credit card.

[Matt Levine]

Sure. Like, I think like you can set like hard limits on how much the bot can spend.

[Katie Greifeld]

That's true. But even still, I could see the bots being like, I don't know, this is a really good deal. Maybe we should just go for it.

[Matt Levine]

Well, I think the idea is that the limits are not internal to the bot. They're on the credit card or on the brokerage account. If you say the bot can have $10,000 in my Robinhood account, then like in theory if your Robinhood, if that, if that pot gets to zero, then the bot has to stop.

[Katie Greifeld]

I do like your, your vision of the world where this replaces all these one click Trade ETFs. It seems like for the time being that Robinhood itself has less ambitious desires here. They think. The write up by Bloomberg's Paige Smith quotes their vice president of product management for brokerage saying that, you know, they're looking forward to learning how different people use the product, which will inform how the team develops it.

[Matt Levine]

So yeah, I'm always exaggerating here. Like, probably like 20, like, really, you know, hardcore sophisticated people will use it to do, like, fairly sophisticated trades, right? And then, like, will someone be like, hey, if there's a dip, buy the dip? Yeah, sure.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah.

[Matt Levine]

Like, one thing that might happen is, like, there might be, like, just sort of like, emergent, like, common behavior that gets codified, right? Like, if everyone sort of wakes up and like, ooh, I have a bot. What should I have it do? I'll have it buy the dip. Or like, whatever. Then, like, you might see, I don't know, you might see, like, different developments in the market where, like, instead of. Instead of like, retail traders all having sort of random reactions to the news, they can all sort of pre program the same reactions and, like, they might have more coordinated behavior. The other thing I want to say is I wrote about this, is this thing only makes sense. It's not just a matter of AI. It only makes sense because Robinhood has offered free trading for a long time, right? I was writing a financial column before free trading was a thing. Free trading is a development of the last seven or eight years. And in a world without free stock trading, the idea that you'd tell your bot automatically buy oversold stocks and sell when they revert to the mean is crazy. It's like $9.95 each time you do that trade. And in a world where there are no visible transaction costs and, like, there are definitely invisible transaction costs, right? Because you're definitely, like, dealing with a market maker and paying a spread each time you trade. But in a world of no visible transaction costs, you can be like, yeah, do like 100 trades a day, no problem, right? So this is like a technology that exists because Robinhood innovated in free trading, but it's also a technology that is very lucrative for Robinhood and for its, like, market maker partners because it'll. If people use this, this is giving you more trades, right? Like, if people use it, they're going to program a bot that will do 100 trades a day to, like, take advantage of some signal that they think of, and then that'll generate a lot of revenue for the market makers who fill orders on Robinhood.

[Katie Greifeld]

Everyone wins, perhaps.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah, I mean, like, right.

[Katie Greifeld]

Like you might lose as the trader, right?

[Matt Levine]

If you're doing those a hundred trades a day, like, what are the odds that you and your bottom have come up with a. With a trade idea that not only beats the market on a backtest, but that beats the market after the actual transaction costs of trading on Robinhood the

[Katie Greifeld]

dozen or so people who take up

[Matt Levine]

this tool, someone's going to do great on it. It's going to be great. Also, it's going to be sports betting, but it's fine.

[Katie Greifeld]

Well, it just feels like, you know, the arc of humanity. It's all sports betting bends towards.

[Matt Levine]

I wrote about this, the credit card, like, the first idea they have for the credit card is like, buy this like, cool sneaker when it goes below whatever price. And it's like Vlad Tanovas talked about democratizing finance by introducing the new asset class, which is sports betting. I mean, sorry, prediction market sports betting. And it's funny to think of Robinhood started as a stock brokerage and there's a world of asset classes out there, some of which are like sneakers and sports vets and asset classes. Collectibles. Yeah, if you want it to be. And between the credit card and the brokerage, soon all of the retail phasing asset classes will be sort of like fungibly tradable. And you can be like, I'm going to trade. You tell your agent, if these sneakers get cheap, buy them. But if the stock gets cheap, buy that. And if the sports bet gets cheap, you just have a sort of like fungible dashboard of bets that you can make.

[Katie Greifeld]

I do want to call out a line in your column about this that I just really loved this sentence that if in your shameful secret heart, what a beautiful phrase, you want to do a trade, like, buy every stock whose ticker begins with C. Sell out of the money. Call options on every stock whose ticker begins with D. Nobody will sell you an ETF like that and you'd be too embarrassed to ask. I love thinking about, like the human psychology element.

[Matt Levine]

Right. I probably could have come up with a more shameful idea, but then I was like, am I really going to spend like 10 minutes sitting here like the most shameful trading.

[Katie Greifeld]

What's the most embarrassing trade I could ask to be packaged into an etf? I did. I did love that, though I will say I was sitting on the path this morning, reading that, thinking about my own shameful secret heart. And like, I don't know, I didn't get very far. I didn't come up with a shameful trade, but it's fun to imagine.

[Matt Levine]

Tell me about your sci fi novel.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah, that's true.

[Matt Levine]

I think we aired it.

[Katie Greifeld]

Well, I don't want anyone to see what I did.

[Matt Levine]

You told me about it extensively on Mike and then we cut it all out.

[Katie Greifeld]

It's all about blood anyway.

[Matt Levine]

That's right.

[Katie Greifeld]

And space and space. But listen, it'll come out by 2030 and then everyone could buy it.

[Matt Levine]

We're going to talk about space on maternity leave.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah. Going to really lock in finally and write this GD book. Hi, I'm Kelly Cavagnaro, Managing Director, Head of North America Institutional Distribution at Janice Henderson Investors. We believe working together is the way to work better. Like combining your portfolio plans and our in depth strategy, your valued assets and our valuable insights, your mission and our vision working in harmony to seek the right investment opportunities. Janice Henderson Investors Investing in a brighter

[Public Investing Announcer]

future Together Support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds and crypto. And they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called Generated Assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R and D spend, small cap stocks with improving operating margins, or the S&P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on Public you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and builds a one of a kind index. You can even backtest it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks, go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by

[Matt Levine]

Public Holdings Brokerage Services by Public Investing

[Public Investing Announcer]

Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors SEC Registered Advisor Crypto Services by ZeroHash Sample prompts are for illustrative purposes

[Matt Levine]

only, not investment advice.

[Public Investing Announcer]

All investing involves risk of loss. See complete [e-mail] disclosures being a small

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[Katie Greifeld]

Do you want to start with baseball or you want to start with drugs?

[Matt Levine]

You're like, raring to go with drugs.

[Katie Greifeld]

I want to talk about drugs because longtime listeners of the Money Stuff podcast will remember me talking about, like, the drug Olympics that I wanted to happen where, like, all the athletes are on drugs and we just let them battle to the death.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah. You're not alone.

[Katie Greifeld]

No.

[Matt Levine]

Many Trump brothers also want that.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah. And Peter Thiel, apparently. Yikes. So the Enhanced Games, that was exactly. That was exactly their idea as well. They had their first event Sunday, this past Sunday in Las Vegas and it was a bit of a bust.

[Matt Levine]

Was it? Dress lodge? We've talked about the Onion story about doping in dressage.

[Katie Greifeld]

Have we?

[Matt Levine]

Have we not?

[Katie Greifeld]

Bring me back up to speed.

[Matt Levine]

There's a truly insanely funny long form Onion story about doping in dressage. That's so funny.

[Katie Greifeld]

I don't think I've read this.

[Matt Levine]

It's one of the funniest Onion things ever. It might be Quick Hole, but it's Onion franchise.

[Katie Greifeld]

What's the thrust of it? That they gave the horses drugs?

[Matt Levine]

Oh, yeah.

[Katie Greifeld]

Oh, well.

[Matt Levine]

Dressage.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah. Well, there is a lot of, you know, athleticism involved.

[Matt Levine]

Sure, sure, sure, sure.

[Katie Greifeld]

Anyway, don't drug your horses.

[Matt Levine]

Don't drug your horses.

[Katie Greifeld]

Okay, so there were some technical glitches in the Enhanced Games. Apparently the livestream froze for more than 10 minutes during the first competition. The bigger thing was that you had three athletes who were described by the organizers as clean. They didn't take any drugs. They won their events. There was only one world record set in the entire Games. I think it was in swimming.

[Matt Levine]

Our world record is pretty good. It's better than nowhere. Like, for your first outing to set a world record is pretty good because, like, you're not getting the.

[Katie Greifeld]

Like I feel like people wanted. And I think the event itself also said that, you know, we're going to see like, we're going to break all the records.

[Matt Levine]

Sure, whatever. I feel like you're not going to get the very top tier of Olympic level athletes to compete in the Drug Games, but you get the next tier or the three tiers down. And then if taking drugs allows them to break a world record, that's a pretty good case for drugs.

[Katie Greifeld]

That's true.

[Matt Levine]

I don't want to be out here being like, kids take drugs. That's Peter Thiel's job. But like, I'm persuaded. I'm going to go take some steroids.

[Katie Greifeld]

Well, you can also sort of take the other side of this trade going on because enhanced group shares fell to an all time low after the event. I didn't know that this was publicly listed. It is.

[Matt Levine]

They're not going to do.

[Katie Greifeld]

Was down like 40%, I think on Tuesday, which is nuts. It is interesting though. I feel like we did prove something, which is that it takes more than drugs.

[Matt Levine]

No, they got a world record in one event. How many did they do?

[Katie Greifeld]

They did a bunch.

[Matt Levine]

Like, how many?

[Katie Greifeld]

Okay, I don't have the number in front of me, but they didn't run

[Matt Levine]

a whole Olympics, did they?

[Katie Greifeld]

They did a lot of different stuff.

[Matt Levine]

Come on.

[Katie Greifeld]

The thing that I care about is of course the sprints. As a runner myself. The 100 meter dash, the winner was Fred Curley. He's an actual Olympian. He was one of the clean ones. And I mean, he won the field clean, sure. Which I don't know, I just, I feel like we proved that you need more than drugs.

[Matt Levine]

You need in the 100 meter dash. It's the first time, like if this thing like were real and 10 years later it has like a big prize pool, then like somebody who's gonna finish seventh in the Olympics will be like, nah, you know what, screw it. I'll set a world record in the enhanced games and win a prize pool. Like, I don't know. This is a good start. I'm bullish on the drug games.

[Katie Greifeld]

The payout does look pretty good. I think the world record that was sent, I think the winner got like a million dollars.

[Matt Levine]

That was pretty good. I mean.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah.

[Matt Levine]

I don't know what the general payouts for like hurdles are.

[Katie Greifeld]

It's not a million dollars. I take the more like human optimist, Ben, which is like you need God given talent. You need to work really hard. You can't just take drugs.

[Matt Levine]

But surely their point is that people who have that plus drugs will do better.

[Katie Greifeld]

You know what?

[Matt Levine]

I guess when I say it like that, it doesn't seem worth it.

[Katie Greifeld]

What we really need is to, as you said, take the absolute best athletes from the Olympics and give them drugs and then we'll really.

[Matt Levine]

The seventh best, that's who they're going for. Right? The person is not going to win a medal. But like with drugs.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah, with drugs you could.

[Matt Levine]

I feel like I've been.

[Katie Greifeld]

No, this is good. Say yes to drugs, kids we really got to look into your shameful secret heart.

[Matt Levine]

Anyway, speaking of people who've taken performance enhancing drugs to play sports. Yes, it's true.

[Katie Greifeld]

So I don't know anything about baseball. So.

[Matt Levine]

Fernando Tatis Jr. Is a guy I've written about a few times because he's involved in a fascinating piece of financial structuring. He was a minor league baseball player in like 2017 who was wined and dined by this company called Big League Advance. And they were like, we'll give you $2 million right now in exchange for 10% of your future earnings in Major League Baseball if you make it to the majors. And if you're a minor league player, you live on peanuts and your chances of making it to the majors are slim. And so he took the money and gave up 10% of his future earnings and then he made it to the majors in fairly short order and did really well fairly quickly. And then pretty quickly signed a 14 year, $340 million contract with the Padres and was like, wait a minute, I'm giving up $34 million, a $2 million advance three years ago or whatever.

[Katie Greifeld]

Yeah.

[Matt Levine]

And so he sued. He waited a while to sue, like this will happen. And he signed his deal with the Padres and when he 21 or something. And he sued last year saying this was a usurious loan. You loaned me $2 million and you're charging me 1,000% interest.

[Katie Greifeld]

It's just predatory.

[Matt Levine]

It's predatory. And he's like, I was a naive 17 year old kid. There's some quotes from in those stories, like, I want to protect those young players who don't yet know how to protect themselves from these predatory lenders and illegal financial schemes. Baseball should be about our passion for the game, not dodging shady businesses driven only by profit and greedy. Okay, so he lost last week basically because he didn't object to arbitration soon enough. And so he still has to pay Big League advance their millions of dollars. I have a couple of views on this. One is that I write all the time about businesses that buy equity and people. I'm like, yeah, this is the trade. Sometimes you invest in a minor league player, you give them an advance, they never make the majors and you get $0 back. It's like a venture capital portfolio. Sometimes you invest in a minor league player and you give them $2 million and they sign a gigantic contract and you get 30. You know, it's just, it's a portfolio. And if you are the players and you're the minor league player who Takes an advance and then doesn't make it to the majors. That was a good trade for you for sure. But you're sad because you would have rather made the majors if you're Fernando Tatis Jr. On the one hand, you are paying back a very large multiple of the money you got. On the other hand, you make $340 million.

[Katie Greifeld]

You're going to be okay.

[Matt Levine]

But so I also, every time I write about this, I get several emails from people and they all say the same thing. They say, Fruitano Tatis Jr. Is a junior. His father is Fernando Tatis.

[Katie Greifeld]

That's the thing.

[Matt Levine]

They always say that Fernando Tatis is the only person to hit two grand slams in the same inning of a major league baseball game. This is the most notable fact about the Tatis family, apparently. But they also say, look, he was doing fine. He was a successful major leaguer. His son was, first of all, not like some hopeless prospect. He was like the top prospect in baseball. Like he knew he was gonna have a major league career. And secondly, he wasn't like broke.

[Katie Greifeld]

No. So I went on a real educational journey here because I don't know anything about baseball. But you link to the New York Post story about this, which anytime. I don't think we often discuss, like New York Post stories on this podcast, but I didn't realize who his dad was. $20 million in career earnings. Why on earth would his son Need a 2 million doll million advance? Asked the New York Post. Which is a good question. But they also say, and again, I don't know anything about baseball, so I'm just believing them, that anyone with two eyes could see that he would one day become a star and baseball's bloated contracts. In a league without a salary cap, 10% of his future earnings was going to be much greater than a $2 million upfront payment.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah.

[Katie Greifeld]

So when you lay it out like that.

[Matt Levine]

No, so, so right. Like one thing is maybe it's a valuation play. Maybe he's like, I'm going to suck. Like, like one thing that has happened is he had a great start to. And I think people are a little mad at him now because he stopped hitting home runs. And also.

[Katie Greifeld]

Well, he got his money.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah, he got his money, but also he was suspended for 80 games for performance enhancing drug finding and he was injured. He's been less successful in recent years than in the past. Perhaps you've looked into $340 million contract. But anyway, a lot of people have the same reaction as the Post, which is like, he didn't need this $2 million so much that he was making a good financial decision, signing away. Yeah, it's a good hedge, right? It's, I mean, depending on how much money his father still has, it's a good hedge. Right. You get $2 million now. If it doesn't work out, people get injured. If it doesn't work out and you don't get the $340 million contract, then like you have the money now and like when you enter into a hedge and then things work out great, your hedge is a waste. But it's like, you know, sometimes you

[Katie Greifeld]

lose money on a hedge, but that's good.

[Matt Levine]

Yeah, you want that as opposed to the thing where the hedge pays off because, like the good thing didn't pay off.

[Katie Greifeld]

I hope he's listening. You know, maybe that would make him feel better. Yeah. Me saying, I don't know anything about this, but this guy.

[Matt Levine]

And that was the Money Stuff podcast. I'm Matt Levine.

[Katie Greifeld]

And I'm Katie Greifeld.

[Matt Levine]

You can find my work by subscribing to the Money stuff newsletter on bloomberg.com

[Katie Greifeld]

and you can find me on Bloomberg TV every day on the close between 3 and 5pm Eastern.

[Matt Levine]

We'd love to hear from you. You can send an email to moneypodlumberg.net Ask us a question and we might answer it on the air.

[Katie Greifeld]

You can also subscribe to our show wherever you're listening right now and leave us a review. It helps more people find the show.

[Matt Levine]

The Money Stuff podcast is produced by Anna Mazarakis, Moses Andam and Alexis Haut.

[Katie Greifeld]

Our theme music was composed by Blake Maples.

[Matt Levine]

Amy Keen is our executive producer. Thanks for listening to the Money Stuff podcast. We'll be back next week with more stuff.

[Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer]

If you follow markets, you know the value of long term thinking. You plan, you diversify, you prepare for volatility. But in life, even the best strategies can't prevent every bad day, a fire, a loss, a disruption that demands immediate attention. When that happens, what matters isn't just what you planned. It's who shows up. That's where Cincinnati Insurance comes in. For more than 75 years, they've helped individuals and businesses navigate life's toughest moments with care, expertise and personal attention. Together with independent agents, Cincinnati Insurance focuses on relationships, not transactions. Their approach is grounded in experience, follow through and trust built over time. Bad days happen, and when they do, you deserve an insurance partner who understands risk, respects what you've built, and is ready to help you move forward. The Cincinnati insurance companies let them make your bad day better find an independent agent@cin fin.com A business gift should do

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