← Moonshots with Peter Diamandis
Moonshots with Peter Diamandis
NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse | 240
02:18:02
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- [00:01]
A
This was Nvidia World. It was a absolute madhouse.
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B
Openclaw is the number one.
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A
It's the most popular open source project
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B
in the history of humanity.
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A
And it did so in just a few weeks.
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B
We're announcing our support of it.
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A
This is just the extraordinary breadth that Nvidia and Jensen are imagining. They're putting their hands, their capabilities, their hardware, their production into everything.
- [00:28]
B
They're building an ecosystem and then letting everybody do radical innovation at the edges.
- [00:34]
A
This is what Microsoft was in the early days, what Google was. But times 100, times a thousand, right
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B
here where I stand, I see through
- [00:42]
A
2027, at least $1 trillion this week was fascinating. You know, we're going to dive into this. Sam Altman predicting, you know, a thousand x drop in cost, Anthropic being named the most disruptive company, eating OpenAI's lunch. Amazing progress this week. So let's take a quick look here. So
- [01:04]
C
now that's a moonshot, ladies and gentlemen.
- [01:09]
B
Most importantly, Peter, massive congress. That was such an unbelievable conference. I consistently get amazed by the level that you're pulling off. And jealous also.
- [01:19]
A
Thanks, pal. It was year 14. The best of all of them. I think for me the most important part is getting amazing people there. We had so many CEOs from so many industries and I loved having all of you on stage with me. And I'm pulling you guys more in every year. So get ready.
- [01:36]
D
It was tremendous fun. Peter, thank you for organizing.
- [01:38]
B
It was great to meet Alex in person and verify that he is indeed at least a meat puppet, if not really.
- [01:45]
D
Well, let's talk about what we're talking about. Salim. Did you really meet me in person or did you meet a clone or a transporter copy or a bio printed 3D meat puppet?
- [01:55]
B
It was one of those projections somewhere along the line. But what are we? A projection of spirit anyway.
- [02:01]
D
Yeah, well, speak for yourself.
- [02:03]
A
You know, Ben Lamb bought the two best cloning companies in the world. The highest efficiency in cloning and success rate. And so I put myself in for duplication.
- [02:13]
C
Did you really? Yeah. You just gave him a bunch of DNA while you were with him.
- [02:17]
A
Yeah, we're gonna go. I figured 10 would be a good start. One per company.
- [02:22]
D
Wait, does that mean that we get a Peter Burger at the next meal?
- [02:25]
A
Oh, yes. Oh my God. If you haven't seen Project Hail Mary yet, I've got my tickets ready and. Of course. Anyway, let's not go there right now. All right. Welcome everybody. Welcome to Moonshots. Another episode of WTF just happened in Tech I'm here with my moonshot mates, DB2. You're in Boston today, Dave.
- [02:47]
C
I am back in Boston. First time in three weeks.
- [02:50]
A
Amazing. And Alex Wiesner. Gross. Alex. Awg. How are you doing, pal?
- [02:54]
D
I'm awake. I'm back in Boston as well, after, of course, the Abundance Summit and then a week in Palm beach for Palm Beach Forum. So it's nice to be back.
- [03:04]
A
Beautiful. And Saleem in. In New York, New Jersey.
- [03:08]
B
No, I am in Miami. I've had the most insane few days. I flew. Oh, my God, you're in India.
- [03:15]
A
You left.
- [03:15]
B
I flew. I flew from the summit straight for an India Today conclave, which is the biggest kind of magazine publication in India. And guess what I saw? I saw they had three people on stage in a row. One was the foreign Minister of Iran. So that was like, whoa. Wow. Yeah. Then they had Laura Loomer giving somewhat the opposite perspective, shall we say? And then the Israeli ambassador to India.
- [03:42]
C
Come on.
- [03:43]
B
No, I'm serious. You're like, whoa, do not let those three in a room together. And then.
- [03:50]
C
Were you seeing this?
- [03:52]
D
And.
- [03:52]
B
No, no, no, no. I was a separate speaker afterwards, and it was pretty out there. And then my health started because I flew to. From India, through Heathrow to Miami, to a Carib, which shall not be named. I walk into the immigration hall of this Caribbean country. 600, like, people in the immigration hall and two people working the passport counter. Okay? Like, you're like, this cannot be happening during, you know, prime spring holidays, etc. Etc. Not a hotel room to be had in the entire. On the entire island. And two people working immigration. So the someplace they're going to have to get their act together.
- [04:34]
C
I can't believe that it's aleem from moonshots.com yes, skip the line.
- [04:42]
A
Welcome to Moonshots. I'm Peter Diamandis, your host, and this is your number one podcast for AI and exponential tech. Our mission here, get you future ready. Get you ready for the supersonic tsunami coming our way. As always, we've got a full presentation on what's just happened in the last three days. I missed you guys. It's only been about five, six days. It feels like a month.
- [05:07]
C
Separation anxiety, huh?
- [05:09]
A
It feels like a month. It really does. We're gonna start here, but I had a conversation this morning with two of our listeners who are in Hollywood here. They're Hollywood producers Jonas and Josh Pate. And they said, you know, Moonshots is the light against the darkness. And they were like, just. Just could not stop saying you guys give us hope. There's so much doom and gloom out there about the future and the show gives us hope. So Jonas and Josh, thanks for that word. And everybody, please join us. We're almost at 500,000 subscribers. Push us over the top. That would be meaningful. If you haven't subscribed, please do turn on notifications. We're now publishing almost twice a week and our mission is deliver you everything that's important. This is the news that really matters in the world. Okay, we jump into top AI news. Nvidia OpenAI, Anthropic and Xai are in the news this week. And this was Nvidia World GTC 2026. 30,000 attendees. Actually. The opening keynote by Jensen took place at SAP center in San Jose. They couldn't hold it in the convention center. 2,000 speakers, 1,000 sessions. I actually dropped in for about an hour and it was a absolute madhouse. You know, our first video we're going to watch here is Jensen talking about reaching a trillion dollars by 2027 in revenue, not in valuation. They blew past that a long time ago in revenue. And this event, this photo of 30,000 people in the room, that's what a trillion dollars of revenue looks like when the whole world ends up coming, coming to you. So I think the most important thing to realize is that Jensen is looking to power everything. He's looking to own the infrastructure that runs physical AI, that runs data centers in space, that runs even OpenClaw. So let's check it out. I'm gonna share a couple of videos and then let's chat about it. So the operating system for robots, cars, agents and orbit. I've been holding off buying more Nvidia stock because how much higher could it go? Well, we're going to find out. Okay, Nvidia, let's listen right here where I stand.
- [07:35]
B
I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion,
- [07:52]
A
Dave. A trillion bucks.
- [07:55]
C
It's not really a trillion. That's a trillion dollars of bookings that has to be recognized over the life of the bookings. Also, that's spread across two years. Amazon or Anthropic is going to get to a trillion within a calendar year faster than Nvidia. Nvidia would get there faster if they could get the chips made because the demand is there. But TSMC is the bottleneck. They've already locked up 70% of TSMC's volume of the 3 nanometer node. There's just nowhere to go. They can go up in price, I guess, but they can sell for A higher ticket, but you just can't make more chips. We don't have the fabs until Elon solves it.
- [08:34]
A
If Nvidia can actually lock up a trillion dollars in revenue from selling its hardware, how much negotiating power do any of its customers have? Like none of.
- [08:45]
C
None. Yes. That's dead, right? I mean, people are begging. It's funny, you heard Larry Ellison say this. As long as a year ago, we are literally, me and Elon and Sam are all lined up outside his door begging for the chips. When in the history of sales has the customer come to you begging for the product? So it makes you wonder, why doesn't he charge more for it? But he's already at 80% gross margin. It would start to get kind of egregious.
- [09:10]
A
Yeah, you know, we're going to see Elon's Terrafab in a little bit to compete against all this. But let's go to the next video here. Let's listen to Jensen talk about openclaw. What a phenomenon.
- [09:28]
B
So Peter Steinberger's here and he wrote a piece of software. It's called Open Claw. And I don't know if he realized how successful it was going to be,
- [09:43]
A
but the importance is profound.
- [09:46]
B
Openclaw is the number one, is the most popular.
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A
I'm going to pause it here. Look at that red line, that red vertical line. That yellow line here is Facebook and that blue line is Lennox.
- [10:05]
D
Right.
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A
So we're talking about, you know, incredible growth for both of them over the last decade. And then here comes OpenClaw vertical. Do you remember when ChatGPT came out and you were like, oh, my God, you know, a million users in what was 100 days. What could possibly scale faster? Well, here we go. I'll continue on open project in the history. Yeah, please.
- [10:26]
C
Oh, so John Werner had a meeting with very high ranking MIT administration and he had some kind of a lobster garment on. Oh, the tie that I gave him, the lobster tie. And I won't tell you who it was because it's just too embarrassing. But they're like, what's the significance of the lobster? Like, what are you. Like, what?
- [10:48]
A
Where have you been?
- [10:49]
C
The biggest cultural phenomenon in probably in world history.
- [10:52]
A
Well, of course, in Boston, the lobsters are different. Different, yes.
- [10:56]
C
But, oh, my God, you know, what
- [10:58]
B
I saw when I thought this was a thought, when I saw this was. This is the classic exponential. I mean, we're past that now, but it looks vertical in front of you and it looks boring and dull behind you. Right. So in a week, we'll look at this and go, yeah, yesterday, you know, it's. Something else came. But that line, that line is so unreal.
- [11:19]
C
It is unreal. And it's, you know, like Alex is always saying, don't sleep through the singularity. We take it for granted, but it's only been a few weeks. You know, it would be very easy to have been on a Caribbean island accidentally, you know, for. For a little while and have no idea what's going on.
- [11:34]
A
I'm going to jump back into Jensen here on openclaw of Humanity. And it did so in just a few weeks.
- [11:46]
B
It exceeded what linux did in 30 years. And it's that important. It is that important. It will do well. This is all you do. Okay, we're announcing our support of it.
- [12:01]
A
They're announcing Nemo Claw. Awg. What do you thought?
- [12:06]
D
I think it's inevitable that Nvidia would need to play in this space. I do agree with the premise that OpenClaw is probably, as Jensen and others have characterized it, the biggest thing in AI, at least in terms of unhobblings, since ChatGPT unhobbled GPT3 in 2022. I think in some sense it was also inevitable that the next big unhobbling after ChatGPT would also grow far more quickly in terms of adoption than ChatGPT itself, because all of these unhobblings are technically stacked on top of each other. Openclaw in the sense that it's sort of a 24. 7, headless, other than via messaging and other mechanisms, agent that builds on top of everything else that we've built on thus far in the tech stack, it builds on reasoning models, it builds on large language models underneath. And so in some sense, as we build further up the stack in terms of more and more advanced unhobblings for these AI capabilities, I do expect the growth pattern to shorten even further to the point where maybe in a few months or at say at maximum two years, we were having a similar discussion. History will rhyme and we'll see. Oh, this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion stars in five minutes. And we'll have the same Jensen quote, probably, and say, all right, we're going all in, everybody.
- [13:39]
A
You may not know this, but I've done an incredible research team and every week myself, my research team study the meta trends that are impacting the world. Topics like computation, sensors, networks, AI, robotics, 3D print, synthetic biology, and these metatrend reports I put out once a week enable you to see the future 10 years ahead of anybody else. If you'd like to get access to the Metatrends newsletter every week, go to diamandis.com metatrends that's diamandis.com metatrenDS Nvidia is, you know, trying to optimize for enterprise on their full stack with Nemo Claw. And the question is if they really optimize and they're selling it packaged with Nvidia, it's, it's, is it really truly open infrastructure? We're going to start to see a lot of people trying to capture that. And of course we saw last week that Anthropic is effectively duplicating all the elements of openclaw. So this is going to go everywhere and I wonder how fast it's going to hit. Salim, have you started your lobster yet?
- [14:41]
B
I have strong thoughts here. I think what you said, Peter, is exactly right. We're going to see a flurry of these. We're also seeing a bunch of Perplexity computer and on the other end you've got Pico Claw and at the other end of the stack. But this announcement from Nvidia for me was a monster implication because one of the things about openclaw was that you have recursive self improvement in business workflows. And this is the heart of this paper I've been writing which I think will be ready next week called the Organizational Singularity. Once you have that, all human to human workflows essentially evaporate. You can't sustain, you can't compete. Because once you put a workflow into this set of agents and they're optimizing it by themselves, you want to get the humans out of the way as fast as possible. The fact that this is announced to support enterprises solves the open claw security issues and the danger that comes with it. This will be the biggest thing to hit the enterprise world in decades. And I think we're going to see adoption by enterprises at that scale. I've had CEOs calling me saying please, you know, because my thesis is you can't fix the any existing organization because it's inherently human to human. All the AI projects are failing. Corporate AI projects are failing because they're trying to optimize human to human and we're inherently flawed anyway in terms of latency, jealousy, time taken. You know, Peter, you send me an email, you never know if I'm going to respond. All that frailty comes into the human being. Whereas if you go agent to agent and you're improving, the workflows recursively this profoundly changed. So every organization in the world now has to do one thing to survive, one only, which is at the edge of your organization. Create an AI native operating system that's centric, AI centric and start moving workflows over to over to it. Human beings then become over site and then exception handling and monitoring the overall system. And this is going to have to happen now. And we're going to, we're going to see. I've got, we may have to like batch up CEOs and say we'll take you in batches through this process. But it's going to have to, it's going to be every company, every nonprofit, every government department, every single organization in the world. The implications for government are profound because government is mostly prescriptive processes, passport renewals and so on. So this is going to be incredible. And I think the value this will add to the world is going to be near infinite from where we can see it today to where it'll get to Salim.
- [17:22]
C
That is so dead right? And last night I installed Amazon Bedrock or opened an Amazon Bedrock account, because you can run Openclaw there now, which is brilliant by AWS, but I swear to God, it was less than 10 minutes. Just go to aws.Amazon.com if you have a credit card and you're a human being, you can be up and running with OpenClaw inside a secure environment. And I think the reason this is such a big unlock for business is because when we started rolling this out at Vestmark, the first problem we ran into is a lot of people trying to automate their job react through emails and slacks and other messaging systems. And there was no way to connect Claude to it. And so cutting and pasting all the crap out of email to get it over to Claude or to OpenAI was such a pain in the butt. Now with Open Claw running in a secure environment on aws, it's instantly connected to all of our enterprise emails and everything else. So it's like for just regular, like the coders have known this when they're writing code for a long time. More like a year. But the rest of the business hasn't been able to really tap into AI. And now it's just, you know, because of open clause, just trivially easy.
- [18:27]
A
And it's still early. And it's still early.
- [18:30]
B
Let's just noting the date. I'm just noting the date. March 16th is the date of the organizational singularity. Everything.
- [18:36]
C
Make it, make it St. Patrick's Day. It's easier to remember okay, St. Patrick's Day.
- [18:40]
A
That's that, that's even easier. Yes. We're going to hit, we're going to hit two more videos and talk about. And again this is just the extraordinary breadth of that Nvidia and Jensen are imagining. They're, they're putting their hands, their capabilities, their hardware, their production into everything. I mean multiple trillion dollar avenues and
- [19:00]
B
here they are here was really powerful for Nvidia here, Sorry to interrupt you. Is that they're building an ecosystem and then letting everybody do radical innovation at the edges. Right. And that's how successful this is. The coral reef analogy we've used in the past.
- [19:15]
A
And let's get into physical AI. You know Eric Schmidt was discussing this at the Abundance Summit. Let's take a listen.
- [19:23]
B
We also have been working on physically embodied agents for a long time. We call them robots and the AIs that they need are physical AIs. We have some big announcements here. I'm going to just walk through a few of them. 110 robots here. Almost every single company in the world, I can't think of one that are building robots is working with Nvidia. We, we even have T Mobile here. And the reason for that is in the future that radio, radio tower used to be a. Radio tower is going to be an Nvidia aerial AI RAM. And today we are announcing four new partners for Nvidia's robo taxi ready platform. BYD, Hyundai, Nissan, Geely, all together, 18 million cars built each year. Joining our partners from before, Mercedes, Toyota, gm. The number of robo taxi ready cars in the future are going to be incredible. And we're announcing also a big partnership with Uber multiple cities. We're going to be deploying and connecting these robo taxi ready vehicles into their network.
- [20:43]
A
Insane, right? This is what Microsoft was in the early days, what Google was but times 100 times a thousand. Nvidia inside everything. So my question to you guys is how long before regulators frame Nvidia as critical infrastructure and start treating it like, you know, more like a utility? How long before they start being, you know, seen as, as having too much power by all of their customers and by government.
- [21:12]
B
They're dusting off their antitrust legislation seriously, as we speak.
- [21:17]
D
No, I think, I think the critical product of Nvidia compute is already highly export controlled. It's, it may get even more export controlled over the coming months. So I think this is already highly regulated. What I see coming of GTC this year is in some sense the western response to China's AI. Plus five year plan in China, the Chinese Communist Party has a five year plan to infuse AI into the rest of the industrial ecology. We don't really have quite the same industrial policy in the west or in the us although we do have an increasingly aggressive industrial policy.
- [21:57]
A
The question I'm asking is Nvidia is getting so much power, it's so fundamental into every single layer of the stack. All physical AI, all data centers everywhere. Besides antitrust, they have such power that they can make or break their kingmakers if they want to be. And how much before they get their customers saying you have too much control over us and we need to compete? I think there are very, very specifically.
- [22:29]
C
You're dead right, Peter. And very specifically the choke point is going to be the conversation with TSMC and also intel and Samsung. I could literally design a chip and sell it out. It's not hard to sell chips in the age of AI if you can get them made. So what Jensen is doing right now is locking up the future manufacturing of TSMC as far into the future as as they'll let him. Well, what do you mean by they'll let him? Well, it's the government that will ultimately say it's anti competitive to do a 10 year forward contract on all of their manufacturing capacity and that's where the rubber's gonna hit the road. So he has to kind of, you know, his margins are so high. We also have, yeah, bordering on where the government will intervene. And if you start locking up all future manufacturing using your current leverage, that's where they're going to come and it's going to collide and you'll see that with Elon's plans too.
- [23:24]
B
That's what I think about that. There'll be severe competition coming. He's trying to lock everything up before that all arrives.
- [23:30]
D
Yeah. I want to question the premise though, Peter. I don't think, say the clip that we just played, which is Jensen demonstrating the pervasiveness of Nvidia compute into an industrial ecology is intrinsically anti competitive. This is exactly, I would argue what Nvidia should be doing. If you want to look for anti competitive behavior, then I would scrutinize perhaps the Grok acquisition or activities like that. I don't think the pervasiveness in robots and robo taxis is it a bad sign. This is incredibly, I would argue, good sign for the west again going back to what the CCP is doing with their five year plan.
- [24:10]
C
Well, the Grok acquisition is exactly where the rubber hits the moat. The Nvidia story on Grok is, look, they've got a better inference time design. We want to acquire them. The Grok point of view is we can't get this made unless we get the TSMC 3 nanometer and 2 nanometer capacity. And Jensen locked it up, so we have to sell to him. But he gave us a great price tag, so it's all good.
- [24:34]
A
So here's my question, Dave, to you. What do you imagine we're going to see in terms of Nvidia's revenues? Is he going to hit the trillion dollars? Is he going to continue to climb? Is there no ceiling on this?
- [24:48]
C
There's no ceiling whatsoever. It'll be $350 billion this calendar year and it'll grow at the max possible rate that he can get TSMC capacity. He can grow another 2x into the 2 nanometer node and then he's floored a lot of the growth. He had about 20% market share with TSMC when this all started. Now he's up to a lot more than that. He had a lot of really fast growth. But from here on out, it's all gated by how quickly can we build new fabs? And there's a lot of investment and research going into new FAB designs, new types which are all bottlenecked by ASML machines, which are absolutely worth tracking. Every time an ASL machine gets shipped, it's worth tracking who got it, where is it going to, because they're going to print money with it. It's like literally you bought a printing press. Yeah, well, there's a lot of talk right now that Elon is secretly negotiating with intel because intel has a lot of those that they booked years ago and they're underutilized relative to.
- [25:46]
A
Well, when we were podcasting with Elon, we said, are you going to buy Intel? That was our guest back then.
- [25:53]
C
He didn't say no. He kind of looked around the room.
- [25:56]
B
It would be such an obvious thing to do.
- [25:59]
A
One more video. Again, just the breadth of Jensen's vision and jumping in. I mean, every place there's an opportunity, Nvidia is jumping in strong. Let's take a listen.
- [26:10]
B
We have, we're working with our partners on a new computer called Vera Rubin Space one.
- [26:15]
A
And it's going to go out to
- [26:17]
B
space and start data centers out in space. Now, of course, in space there's no conduction, there's no convection, there's just radiation. And so we have to figure out how to cool these systems out in space. But we've got Lots of.
- [26:33]
A
So I still love the fact that no one was discussing this. Seven, eight months ago, Elon states we're going to do this and the entire world is converging to implement his vision and his dream. Crazy.
- [26:46]
C
You know it's funny to me is I had so many meetings three months ago with semiconductor companies that are all excited about liquid cooling and they've got different etched grooves on the backs of the chip and the water's in. They're all dead silent and all of a sudden you're like yeah, that won't work in space, sorry. Oh my God. Well that's the nature of the singularity. Things are going to change every month. And just to get used to it,
- [27:08]
D
I guess I do find it somewhat surprising that Nvidia hasn't been working on orbital radiation based data cooling rather for years. It is pretty surprising. On the one hand one can say, well the Dyson swarm snuck up on us and this is a very surprising killer app for GPU compute and frankly for the solar system. On the other hand it is surprising to me that given how many tendrils Nvidia has into space so many different verticals that they weren't investing more earlier in space based cooling. I get this question all the time. The common misconception that radiation based cooling in space is somehow very difficult or very challenging or somehow an obstacle to a scale out. It's actually not that difficult, I don't think. Despite Jensen's comments that he has dozens of engineers, I think was the quote, working on radiation based cooling for orbital data centers or orbital GPUs working on it. That's an optimization. We know how to cool orbital compute right now.
- [28:16]
A
Yeah. My concern Alex is more a massive solar flare or an emp, you know, in terms kind of warfare state, knocking out a significant portion of our data centers up there.
- [28:27]
D
We know how to do that too. We know how to design ionization resistant electronics in orbit. We've been doing it for decades. There are various techniques you can use older process nod, you can use extensive error correction, you can use shielding. Lots of different techniques. My favorite is the Star Trek technique of just using a magnetic field to deflect ions and otherwise deflect ionizing radiation around. It doesn't work for photons obviously, it only works for charged particles. But I think we're going to come up with lots of solutions for protecting
- [28:59]
A
orbital in the long run, yes. I think the short run is what I'm concerned about.
- [29:05]
B
Aren't there significant latency issues with space based stuff?
- [29:10]
D
Not if they're in low Earth orbit. Low Earth orbit is very low latency.
- [29:14]
A
Yeah, I mean it's starlink on your phone very shortly. And again you're putting the prompt up into space and you're getting the answer beamed down to you. So there's a lot of stuff. I mean you could probably parse the latency request to different parts of the constellation.
- [29:32]
C
Aler said something brilliant, as always. And kind of very quickly there that I want to just rewind the tape to. There's a huge opportunity in older process nodes. Just file that away. If you're a listener wondering what you're going to do post singularity, partially because they're resistant to radiation in space, but partially because it's underutilized capacity in the age where all AI will sell out. So we can riff on that some other time. But I wanted to just call it out because Alex says these things so quickly. It's incredibly profound what he just said.
- [30:06]
D
Maybe one more teaser just on the latency front. People are sleeping on neutrinos. I'll make a prediction just like people. Maybe some folks were surprised by the Dyson swarm orbital data centers. People are sleeping on the potential for neutrino based communication to give us ultra low latency through the Earth communication. Right now we don't have great technologies for producing in a way that's high throughput neutrinos or for receiving neutrinos, neutrino
- [30:35]
A
detectors in miles or thousands of meters below the ground. Enlarge. What's the liquid they use for tracking neutrinos?
- [30:43]
D
It's usually heavy water. It's usually water.
- [30:45]
A
Ionizing water. Looking for ionization trails.
- [30:48]
D
That's right. But there's no physical reason from the physics that we have today why it has to be so inefficient via the electroweak force to couple to neutrinos. So one can imagine in a few years when we have better physics having neutrino phones that just go straight through the earth and then we can completely route around neutrino phones.
- [31:08]
A
Neutrino phones. That's awesome. All right.
- [31:11]
B
I was also not on my bingo card for any discussions here.
- [31:15]
A
I mean, come on, that's amazing. This week was fascinating. We're going to dive into this. Sam Altman predicting, you know, 1000x drop in cost. Claude writing 70 to 90% of its own code. Anthropic being named the most disruptive company, you know, and literally Claude or anthropic eating OpenAI's lunch. Amazing progress this week. Let's Take a quick look here. So first up, Sam Altman talking about his speed and cost. All right, Sam, People cite whatever amazing
- [31:52]
D
statistic they like about how much more
- [31:54]
B
efficient our models have gotten over our
- [31:56]
D
industry's models have gotten over time. But one that I think is incredible.
- [32:01]
A
Our first reasoning model was called O1,
- [32:04]
B
came out like 16 months ago. And our latest model with now integrated reasoning is 5.4.
- [32:16]
A
To get the same answer to a hard problem from that first model to 5.4 has been a reduction in cost of about a thousand x. Do you believe that number, Alex?
- [32:28]
D
I do. It's consistent with the 40x year over year hyper deflation that we've discussed on the POD previously. But I want to highlight the implicit part that Sam is mentioning, which is he's highlighting the difference between.01, which is OpenAI's first reasoning model, and GPT 5.4 which is their latest reasoning model. He's not highlighting say differences with models prior to the reasoning model revolution. So we've seen if you look at the AI capabilities since reasoning models were first introduced, the hyper deflation of cost has been extraordinary. It's reasoning models that are enabling this massive increase in capabilities. It's not necessarily training time compute. We see the shift to inference time compute or action time compute that's really enabling this 1000x increase in call IT capability per unit price. And I would expect that. And I think maybe we'll touch on this in a moment as we hit recursive self improvement more and more aggressively, we're going to see this order of magnitude increase in capability per unit price fallout for free in some sense. Just like reasoning models in some sense fell out for free. Once you had the baseline of large language models and simply allowed them to sort of talk to themselves with additional tokens and reasoning time. And then you can, through iterated amplification and distillation, enable them to reason more effectively. We're going to see post transformer architectures that make 1000x reduction in cost look like child's play.
- [34:08]
C
Yeah. And if you rewind the video here to Jensen's comments and look really closely at what he has on screen in the corner, you'll see him talk about the inference explosion as was driving this trillion dollars of bookings at Nvidia, which is the exact same thing Alex is talking about. Like for all of neural network research history Going back 40 years, nobody cared about inference time because the training was the bottleneck and the model wasn't smart enough to care about making an inference really fast. Now Chain of thought reasoning is the biggest breakthrough ever. And you can use inference time compute to build a smarter and smarter and smarter AI. And it's very easy to optimize inference relative to training. And we as a society have really just started on it in the last really two years or less. And that's why we're getting these massive gains. But that's also why everyone's really underestimating the next year because we did a thousand x. Like what are you expecting in the next year? Oh, 2X. Like what are you talking about? Yeah, it's not going to happen that way.
- [35:07]
B
Dave, you just said something there. Can I just drill in on that? Why is inference so much easier to optimize than training?
- [35:15]
C
Yeah, go ahead Alex, nail it.
- [35:17]
D
I was going to say part of it is, frankly, there's an overhang. Prior to 01 and the reasoning model revolution, almost no effort was being spent in scaling inference time compute. So if you go from having zero tokens expended in reasoning to thousands of tokens expended in reasoning, in some sense you get performance for free out of that at least capability per unit price because you were expending so little cost. Like if you look at the overall pie of how much compute was spent on training time versus inference time, so little compute was being spent on inference time that you can scale across orders of magnitude of the amount of time in an absolute sense that you spend on inference time without materially impacting your overall budget. So you can get orders of magnitude of effective cost reduction per unit capability for free just through brute force scaling of inference time. Now, at some point, and we're reaching that point now, you run out of room and inference time compute starts to dominate the overall pie. And there are many frontier models now where more inference time compute is being spent than training time computer for some definition of each of those quantities, at which point the free lunch runs out and then you have to start discovering new efficiencies.
- [36:34]
A
I want to make the abundance argument here for folks listening. I mean, 1,000 times cheaper in 16, 18 months. We are nowhere near optimized for inference compute energy and cost. 6 billion people with a smartphone means that effectively there's going to be some level of extraordinary AI available to every single person on the planet. Again, what makes us special as humans? We're not the fastest, we're not the strongest, we're potentially hopefully the smartest. And we've delivering intelligence as a service to everybody. And intelligence as a service gives everybody access to education, healthcare, entertainment, you know, re Education for employment. Go on, Salim.
- [37:19]
B
Can I make a radical heretical comment here? I'll make a prediction that the optimization we're doing, which is ,ousand X in 16 months, is going to keep going in such a way that we may not need to tile the world with data centers or energy. I think the point we've been making until now is that the demand for compute is so ridiculous that maybe 10 million times and we'll optimize, we'll, we'll needle every single joule of it. But if, if the optimization is having that craze, like for example, once you can run open claw locally and run models locally, then that the compute, the energy needed is really quite minimal for that. And so do we really need the massive energy build out?
- [38:09]
C
Well, John Warner calls that the wall. You know, the. It's not Wall E. It's the other Disney movie where they're, they're all blobs floating in space and they've kind of forgotten to innovate because everything's so easy. Which movie is that? That is Wall E, isn't it?
- [38:22]
B
I think it.
- [38:23]
C
It is Wall E. Is it Wall E? Yes. Yeah. I mean, that would imply that I go to you, Saleem, and I say, hey, Salim, I can give you 1 billion employees with an IQ of 180 each. Can you think of anything useful to build? And you go, nah, I can't really use it.
- [38:42]
B
So, I mean, the point you're making is we'll find so many ridiculous use cases for putting intelligence in the limitless in the world.
- [38:51]
A
Remember, 6 billion people have access to a smartphone. And how many people are using AI right now? You know, OpenAI is at 8, pushing 900,000.
- [39:02]
D
The elephant in the room with the consumer case of putting a country of geniuses not in a data center, but in your smartphone in your pocket, is thus far, consumers and OpenAI has sort of been shocked by this, haven't made good use of reasoning capabilities, whereas enterprises are thrilled with reasoning capabilities. So if we want to empower individuals in the world, we need to discover a killer app for individuals to use reasoning.
- [39:27]
A
Otherwise, we need to change their mindset. I'll say this again right here, everybody listening. Your job is to use AI every day. We had Bill Gross on stage at the Abundance Summit, basically saying we have to retrain ourselves because all of us have learned that if you have to do something, you have to do it or you have to find an employer to do it for you. The judo move here, the new mindset wiring is I need something done. I Bet you AI can do it for me better than I can and better than a human.
- [39:56]
B
I have a killer app. I mean, for God's sakes, any little bit of common sense as a killer app. I mean, God, we need more of that around the world.
- [40:05]
D
You get common sense from baseline large language model capabilities. I think. I'm not even sure you need a lot of reasoning for that.
- [40:12]
B
So let's just force every human being before you make any stupid decisions. Check with your common sense app before you do dumb things.
- [40:20]
A
Well, that's.
- [40:20]
D
I think that the solution is likelier to end up being something like turning every individual into an enterprise that actually needs reasoning capability. I think there's probably a trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual in the world into like one person unicorns.
- [40:35]
A
Let's jump into Sam Altman talking about AI reinventing itself.
- [40:42]
D
On the research perspective. I bet there is another new architecture
- [40:49]
A
to find that is going to be
- [40:51]
C
like as big of a gain as
- [40:53]
D
transformers were over LSTMs.
- [40:57]
B
And I think you finally have models
- [40:58]
A
that are smart enough to help do that kind of research.
- [41:02]
D
So I would go look for like
- [41:05]
B
where can I find a mega breakthrough? And I would use the models to help me.
- [41:12]
A
And we had Kevin Wheel on stage who's heading science at OpenAI. We talked about the fact that what's hidden inside these hyperscalers, inside these frontier labs, is the fact that they're going to use AI to create incredible breakthroughs in physics and chemistry and biology, in material science, in in AI itself. And each of those are multi trillion dollar opportunities itself. So Alex, thoughts?
- [41:42]
D
Well, maybe just to speak at the object level to Sam's comments about a leap from transformer to something after transformer that's comparable to LSTM to transformer. I think that's very likely. He may even be gesturing at something that OpenAI has internally. I want to combat the the perception that the hypothetical post transformer architecture necessarily will involve a recurrent architecture. There are a lot of companies that were founded on the premise that just because Transformers superficially have an attention bottleneck and a context window bottleneck and seem to have plateaued out at about a million or so tokens of context that somehow going backwards in time to recurrent architectures like lstms, which are a form of recurrent architecture, are somehow the solution. If I had to guess, what does the definitive category killer post transformer architecture look like? I think it's going to come out of left field. I think it's going to come maybe from a line of Research. There are a few lines of research that involve using transformers to directly write the weights of other transformer architectures. Transformers are really wonderful. They parallelize nicely, they have nice residual streams. There's a lot to like about the transformer architecture. I think it could involve some refactorization of the weights. It's going to be something clever and not just sort of a return to recurrent weights.
- [43:07]
A
It's not brute force, it's going to be something orthogonal.
- [43:10]
D
Well, it can't be brute force if it's going to be a fundamentally new architecture. Brute force is just what we do if we don't have transformative new architectures. But I would encourage everyone who gets excited. There's an entire cottage industry of academic researchers who don't necessarily have access to the raw brute force compute of a frontier lab who want to be the ones to discover the next transformer. I would encourage you, if you're listening, focus your attention on the small language model space. And there are so many lovely benchmarks like the speedrun for nanogpt training or variety of slow run benchmarks for data efficiency. Focus on those and discover the next big thing. And it probably won't be recurrent networks
- [43:56]
C
and it probably will, it'll be soon like in the next year. And it probably won't map well to the current Nvidia architecture. So you'll immediately want to call Lisa Su@ AMD or call intel and figure out how you're going to get it manufactured on custom, very much like Google is doing with the TPUs or Elon is about to do. And that's how you're going to create the next Anthropic or the next OpenAI.
- [44:23]
D
That's right. And that was quite frankly what Nvidia did to Intel. Intel for years, if you remember. Why is it that intel, which was the 800 pound gorilla, why did intel allow the GPU revolution to just pass it by? And it was because for years and years intel executives were trying naively to map what they perceived internally as general purpose CPU onto GPU shaped problems. And that always ended up being a bad idea. They had all of these sort of schemes to create tiled architectures of hundreds of CPU cores to solve GPU shaped problems. But they were unwilling or unable to focus on specialized compute for specialized problem shapes. And if there is going to be an architectural disruptor for Nvidia, it's going to be the same sort of disruptive innovation that Nvidia pulled on intel, which is, it's going to have to be, I would expect an architecture that's even more specialized than GPUs and yet even more useful.
- [45:20]
C
And I'll tell you what, Jensen knows it's coming. That's why he's trying to lock up all the manufacturing so that you have to come through him rather than around him. But what Alex said earlier about the older process nodes being viable is brilliant because if you decide you don't want to sell to Jensen, that's your avenue forward. You just very quietly use the older process nodes, work around it and talk to intel or AMD.
- [45:43]
B
So GPUs were Intel's Kodak moment.
- [45:46]
A
Mm. In one sense, sure.
- [45:50]
D
I mean, in sort of a Christensen esque disruptive innovation, but in a very specialized form, yes.
- [45:57]
A
All right. The frontier lab wars continues. Time magazine names Anthropic the most disruptive company in the world. And we're seeing this. And one point, Dave, you made a while ago was as OpenAI is making improvements, they're dropping their cost. At the same time as Anthropic is making improvements, they're increasing their performance, which is leaning it towards the enterprise level. And they're winning hands down. We're going to see that in the next slide. Let me just share that one right now. Here we go. Anthropic is eating OpenAI's lunch. So this is AI model share of first time enterprise customers. And we've seen anthropic go from 40% up to 73% while OpenAI goes from 60% down to 26% over three months. This is insane.
- [46:47]
C
You know, the story within, the story that I really am tracking closely here is that Sam Altman is the consummate dealmaker Y Combinator background traveling all I see him everywhere, negotiating multi hundred billion dollar deals on every corner. While Greg Brockman and Mark Chen are back in the office being the brilliant AI researchers. Dario is completely the inversion of that. He's the actual AI researcher, understands every bit, moving through the neural net while his wife is dealing with the business stuff. So they've kind of inverted the formula and it's interesting to watch it play out because when Mark Zuckerberg came into the business world as a 23 year old or 22 year old, him running a monster company was completely foreign terrain to everyone. And like, can this kid really figure it out? And he reinvented what an Internet CEO looks like. Now Dario is reinventing what an AI CEO looks like. So if he ends up winning in the end, the profile of what a CEO looks like will have changed yet again. On the Other hand, if Sam comes roaring back, it'll be interesting. It's a great draw.
- [47:56]
A
I bet you Dario doesn't want to be the CEO. I bet you Dario.
- [47:59]
C
He definitely didn't originally. I know that. I don't know if he's grown into it.
- [48:03]
B
Look, my wife Lily is a way better business person than I am, so this is not surprising to me at all. What I found really interesting about this whole framing was, you know, these Frontier Labs are the weirdest animal because they're part software company, part national security issue, part, like, huge governance experiment. I mean, this is really a weird animal that we've not seen before.
- [48:25]
D
Part of the problem.
- [48:26]
C
This chart is an absolute ass kicking, though. I mean, I don't want to call that out. This is a.
- [48:31]
B
It really is.
- [48:32]
C
And that's why, you know, you saw Kevin weil at a360 last week. He came and he talked and then he ran. And like, where are you running to? It's like the fire at OpenAI must be blazing. Yes, like Code Red.
- [48:44]
A
Code red again.
- [48:46]
C
Yep, yep.
- [48:46]
B
Well, enterprise. Enterprise buyers. Reward, fit, stability, reliability, trust.
- [48:52]
C
Right.
- [48:53]
B
And you really want that. And anthropic is providing.
- [48:56]
C
Alex, you were about to say.
- [48:57]
D
Yeah, I think part of the problem is OpenAI had made a bet, and if you look at the timescale, I think the timescale agrees with this. OpenAI had made a bet that consumers would need a lot of compute and anthropic with fewer resources and less compute than OpenAI was forced to just focus on enterprise and then has post hoc turned that into sort of a story of how enterprise is intrinsically better as a customer base than consumers. I don't think enterprise is intrinsically better, but I do think enterprise appears to be intrinsically hungrier for compute in the form of inference, time, reasoning.
- [49:38]
A
I disagree. I think enterprise, their survival is at stake here. A consumer for 20 bucks a month, it's not their survival. It's useful. It can help them do their stuff. But for enterprises, I mean, they're willing to pay whatever it is. It's an existential risk for them.
- [49:57]
C
That sounds more like agree than disagree to me.
- [49:59]
D
Yeah, it sounds like you agree with me, Peter.
- [50:00]
A
Oh, I thought you said the opposite.
- [50:02]
D
No, no, I'm saying that OpenAI had made a bet that consumers would be as hungry for reasoning compute as enterprises, and that bet turned out to be wrong. And as a result, if OpenAI's bet had turned out to be correct, I wouldn't expect to see this crossover at all. I'd expect to see OpenAI generate so much revenue that they wouldn't have had to. I don't think we have a slide for this, but OpenAI has actually started to scale back their Stargate plans and they're switching from building their own data centers to renting existing data centers. And this has been very well publicized. They're throttling back on their $1.6 trillion Stargate plans. I don't think we'd be in this. Yeah, I don't think we'd be in this situation if consumers had been as avid consumers of. Of reasoning tokens as enterprises were. Turns out that bet was wrong. Anthropic bet on enterprise because they had to, because they were limited. And as a result, you see anthropic enterprise going up and anthropic overall being in a position where revenue generation is 10x year over year deals.
- [51:04]
A
Right. They're heading towards an IPO and they are basically shortchanging Microsoft and going for 50 billion from Amazon. Shortchanging is not the right word. Stabbing Microsoft in the back, just trying to get deals to make sure their IPO comes off and they get enough capital to continue building. We hadn't a slide for this either, but it's worth noting this past week Meta's Avocado model is getting massively delayed and how cool that Meta is now looking to Google to provide them AI capability in the interim. Thoughts on that one?
- [51:40]
D
The singularity makes for strange bedfellows.
- [51:42]
A
Yeah.
- [51:43]
C
Yeah. Well, in desperation too. I mean, I don't know if you're a World War II history buff, but when the Nazis, they just tromped across Europe so easily and then in some fit of insanity, Hitler decided, you know what, I'm just going to go and declare war on Russia at the same time, start a whole new front. Even though they've agreed not to attack me, I've agreed not to attack them. I'm going to go ahead and fight in the snow. And then they just got stretched too thin and that was the end of that. And now we live in the world we live in. Thank God. So Sam decided, I'm going to go ahead and start working on a chip design of my own. While hiring Jony, I've to go headlong after Google on the device front. Dario said, I'm going to headlong after
- [52:23]
A
Apple on the device front.
- [52:24]
C
Headlong after Apple too. Yeah. Like irritate everybody at the same time. Why not? But we're that big and we've got that much momentum and we've got a trillion dollar Valuation so we can pull this all off simultaneously. Very much like Elon. Like, I want to build this totally integrated, end to end empire. Dario went whole hog the other way. I want to partner with Amazon and aws. I want to be friendly with every cloud provider. I just want to do the software. I'm not designing my own chips, I'm not building my own data centers. I'm partnering with everyone. I am just the AI software. And so he's very easy to partner with because he's not a third threat to everyone. And that's part of why this is working out this way.
- [53:04]
A
I remember talking to some of my friends who are senior at Google and they have a respect for anthropic. Right. Anthropic is the other. If you would, I'll put air quotes around it. Moral and ethical Frontier Lab out there. And you know, one thing for entrepreneurs listening, one of the biggest mistakes entrepreneurs make is they pursue too many lines of business. Most companies fail not from starvation, but from indigestion. There's one company I backed.
- [53:37]
B
I do this all the time. Me, me, me. I'm terrible.
- [53:40]
A
Okay, okay. And it's so true. It's like you get some level of success and you get ambitious and you start going after the next thing, the next thing, the next thing. And pretty soon you forgot about what got you successful in the first place.
- [53:54]
B
You sound like my whole board, Peter. I'd like you to now.
- [53:57]
A
Okay, I will. But the only person who's been immune to that is Elon.
- [54:07]
C
Yeah, look, my World War II analogy paints one side versus the other, but it's easy in hindsight to say you got stretched too thin. But the flip side of it, if you pull it off, you're vertically integrated, you've got a massive hardware advantage, you control your own data centers. You'll be like Elon Musk. So there's merit to both approaches. It's not obvious until you're stretched too thin and then it's obvious.
- [54:32]
D
I also think it's far too soon to be writing epitaphs for OpenAI. GPT 5.4 Pro is an incredibly strong model. Codex, their competitor for Claude code, is growing very rapidly. And I'm confident that OpenAI has the institutional wherewithal to refocus itself. They've been in the headlines saying they need to focus on their core bread and butter businesses at this point and look a little bit more like anthropic. I think they've been scared into focusing quite a bit more. And the beauty of OpenAI is they do have that vertical integration where they had been focusing earlier on data centers and on the consumer. I do think at some point consumers will actually discover use cases. Maybe they look like, like open claw for needing a lot of reasoning at the consumer end. And then at that point I would expect the OpenAI strategy of being, I think Sam calls it the core AI subscription, which I parse as being everything to everyone. I do think that will have another day in the sun.
- [55:34]
C
Well, I also don't think epitaph is never the right word. All five of the major labs are going to be worth trillions and trillions of dollars. I think we said that on stage many times last week. So to say somebody's beating the crap out of somebody else doesn't mean the other guy isn't growing too. It means you're just on top of the pyramid right now. But they're all, this is America. We need competitors in every space. We're not going to have one winner. We never operate that way. So they're all growing, they're all thriving. They're all going to be multi trillion dollar companies. Biggest companies you've ever seen, everybody.
- [56:08]
A
Welcome to the health section of Moonshots, brought to you by Fountain Life. You know, we talk about AI on this Moonshot podcast all the time. One of the most important things AI is going to be able to do for you, besides educating your kids and helping you with your taxes, is making sure that you're living a healthy lifestyle, that you get a chance to get to 100 plus. I'm here today with Dr. Dawn Musaylem, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team. Dawn, a pleasure. Great to be here. You know, the thing that people are concerned about most, about living to 100 or 120, is their cognitive abilities, making sure they don't have dementia. And the numbers about dementia are problematic. Can you share what you've learned?
- [56:51]
C
Such an important point. And you're right. At Fountain Life, our members, the number one thing people are most concerned about is losing their brain health. Forgetting the name of their child, forgetting
- [56:59]
B
the face of their loved one.
- [57:01]
C
We know that when it comes to dementia, the conservative estimates are that 45% are entirely preventable.
- [57:07]
B
What was amazing is with the advanced
- [57:10]
C
testing we're doing at Fountain Life, one quarter of our members had advanced brain age.
- [57:15]
A
Wow.
- [57:15]
C
But what was really awesome is again, back to that prevention when we partnered it with healthy living.
- [57:20]
B
This gives me chills.
- [57:21]
C
Eating healthier, moving our bodies, sleep, optimizing sleep is so important. You Know what we saw? We saw that we improved that brain age by 26%. That is a big, big number to show that the majority of those individuals were able actually to improve the brain age.
- [57:38]
A
And one of the things I love about Fountain is we're searching the world for the best therapeutics, the best approaches, and making sure we bring it to our members. So if having healthy brain function till 100, 120 is important to you, check out Fountain Life. Go to fountainlife.com Peter make sure you become the CEO of your own health. All right, now back to the episode. This is a fun tweet that Marc Andreessen addressed. This is from Vivid Void. Who else is an AGI boomer like me or Bloom? I'm sorry? Who else is an AGI bloomer like me who thinks that intelligence actually looks amazingly like wisdom at the highest level, and that a super intelligence would become something akin to a goddess of compassion, not a paper clipper? And then Marc Andreessen wrote back, that is indeed what we are getting, and it's amazing. One thing that I thought through a while ago, talking about wisdom, and I think AI and AGI will become extraordinarily wise. If you're looking for wisdom, typically you go to the village council and you find the elders and you ask them, given your wisdom, what do you think I should do? And they'll say, well, if you go down this path over here, we've seen it before, it's not going to end good. If you go down the other path over here, you have a much higher probability of success. And that's what I recommend. So wisdom ultimately is having had a lot of experiences and being able to make a probabilistic choice based upon your experiences. And the more experiences you've had, the wiser you are. What it hits me is that these advanced AI models, AGI, asi, whatever you want to call it, are going to be able to simulate billions of different circumstances and be able to say, out of these billion scenarios that we've run, this is the right path. This is the one that's likely to give us abundance or superabundance. So I do expect and hope that these models will become wise. Thoughts.
- [59:37]
D
I want to note a subtle language shift, if I may. This is in the style of Orwell's politics in the English language. We used to, I think, maybe about a year ago, talk about AGI doomers versus AGI boomers. And Peter, I noticed even you made that slip when you were reading this X post. Now we're talking about Bloomers with an L. And I think that's a subtle but important distinction a boomer is focusing on. Call it the exponential part, a bloomer, it evokes the blooming of flowers, maybe even an algal bloom, but the blooming of a flower. And there's a sense in which there's beauty and also a bloom can run to completion, unlike say a boom, which is sort of intrinsically at the knee of the curve. So when I hear language start to pervade, and it's not just this ex post talking about an AGI bloom, that almost implies sort of an inevitable maturation and takeover, not in a terminator sense, but in more of a flower blooming and running to saturation type sense. That's very interesting. Second point, Mark is taking the position. I read this as Mark taking a position against the orthogonality thesis. The orthogonality thesis in AGI alignment circles holds that an intelligence can have independent levels of intelligence or capabilities that are independent from its end objectives. And here Mark seems to be taking the position that no, actually, as superintelligence becomes more and more capable, its goals and its objectives will become more and more akin to a goddess of compassion. It'll become more compassionate.
- [61:24]
A
So there's a hope, right, that alignment comes out of the capabilities. Yeah. Selim, what do you think? What are your thoughts on the wisdom conversation or wisdom argument I had?
- [61:37]
B
Okay, so I. I think. I think the way Alex framed it was exactly right. Right. We've had this ordinality around this where we assume intelligence can scale, but does intelligence, as it scales, do you end up with wisdom or compassion? Right. Super intelligence without, without compassion is a scaling problem. With compassion, you have a civilizational upgrade. And I think there's an enormous potential here for that. But for me, it would not be hard. In fact, my father posited this a year ago before he passed away, was to say, look, if you can take all the writings of Plato, Aristotle, the Buddha, Laozi, etc. Etc. And merge it all together, you've got like the wisest person, a combination of the wisest people in the history of the world. And you could rely on that as a benchmark for how to think about the world and to act in a particular way. I don't see any reason why wisdom is not conferable into an intelligence. And we can kind of guide these AIs into that model. I think we should be able to do that with the way we do the training side. And then you have an unbelievable superpower in there. I think when I think about AI asi. I mean, for me, that that natural boundary ends up with in consciousness and wisdom, because that'll be the next thing we'll argue, are these things conscious or not? But I think I'm very, very excited that we could train these models with real wisdom and with real compassion and that we can then let guide us in a way that we have difficulty guiding ourselves.
- [63:12]
A
So, Dave, when you and I were interviewing Elon, he hinted at this, right? And now he's announcing the Terrafab. I mean, this is crazy. He wants to. His initial capacity is 100,000 wafers. It's amazing. Heading to a million wafers per month, roughly equivalent to 70% of TSMC's annual global output. 100 to 200 billion custom. I mean, the guy does not think small. The guy does not.
- [63:46]
C
Are you kidding me? I mean, the conversation we just had about a war on many fronts. I mean, take it to another level. You just cut a $16 billion deal with Samsung to buy chips and then you say, oh, by the way, we're going to build our own. And it says 200 billion chips here targeting 70% of TSMC output. But TSMC output's about a billion. This is 100 to 200x more than the world produces today.
- [64:14]
A
Do you remember, of course, his classic Elon, he was joking with us that in the future, Fab factory, you're going to be able to eat a cheeseburger and smoke a cigar in the fabric. This is the Fab.
- [64:28]
C
Yeah, that's right. That's exactly what he said. Does he have audio on that too?
- [64:32]
A
No, he doesn't.
- [64:33]
C
We kept. Oh, that's too bad. Yeah, it's brilliant. It's absolutely. It makes total sense too. You know, those clean rooms are ridiculous. It's like an operating room with the booties and the hood and the mask and like one little speck of dust destroys an entire $2 million wafer. No, no, no, you're gonna be able to. He said you'll be able to eat Doritos over his fat. And it won't take a second.
- [64:54]
A
And just take a look at the span. I mean, SpaceX and Xai merging, going public in the next couple of months, right? Probably 1.5 to $2 trillion off the top. Tesla with Optimus and now with this Terrafab. How many trillions of dollars is that? And then of course, the orbital data centers. We had this discussion, when are we going to see the first hundred trillion dollar company? These are it. These are the companies. This is the innermost loop.
- [65:25]
C
No if he pulls this off, that's easily 100 trillion. I mean, just on straight math, are
- [65:32]
B
we saying that Terrafab is 100 times what TSMC is putting out?
- [65:37]
A
No, I mean the notes, when I look at it is it's 70% of TSMC's current global output. I mean, very specifically that.
- [65:45]
B
But isn't TSA doing a billion chips?
- [65:48]
A
I don't know that number for sure.
- [65:52]
C
Each process node does about 150,000 wafers a month. And a wafer. The big chips, there'll be like 30 chips on a wafer. So then they have three major nodes. So they do about half a million wafers a month. So it's about 6 million wafers a year. Right. And 30 chips, this is like 100x though.
- [66:13]
A
This is a million. A million wafers. So their unit of measure is wafer starts per month. And they're starting at 100,000 wafer starts per month and scaling to a million. Right. So that's 10 million wafers. How many chips per wafer?
- [66:27]
C
Okay. Okay. Yeah. Like 30 big ones.
- [66:30]
A
Okay. So anyway, here's the point. Elon hates being dependent on other people. He doesn't play well. He fully vertically integrates and verticalizes everything. And he's doing it here. Of course, the 815 chip that's coming out of this is going to power all of his cybercabs. It's going to power Optimus, and he's going to control his stack.
- [66:54]
C
Yeah. I'll tell you what must drive him insane, knowing how Elon thinks. He sees the Dyson Swarm just like Alex does, as the inevitable destiny within 10 years. And you go and talk to ASML, they make the most important component of these fabs is this massive of pickup truck or Mack truck sized. Most complicated machine ever made. Only made in what, the Netherlands, I guess in Europe.
- [67:19]
A
Crazy.
- [67:20]
C
Made in three big parts, disassembled, shipped on 747s over to the US reassembled. They make 700 of these things a year. And you say, well how many do you think you could make next year? And they're like, well, if we really move, we might go from 700 to 1,000. Elon goes, Are you kidding me? That is not the exponent I'm looking for. I must find another way. So I don't know how he's going to get around it. It seems impossible to get around that. But that's got to be what he's like when his fingers are like this. You know, that's what he's thinking.
- [67:48]
B
This Is like that last summer when you were scaling, everybody said you couldn't get the compound effect when you scale chips. And he just went, yeah, we'll just figure it out.
- [67:56]
A
When he was building a Colossus one. Yeah.
- [68:00]
D
I think it's also important not to sleep on the geopolitical implications. If Tesla is going beyond hypothetically its existing Samsung collaboration or any existing hypothetical intel collaborations, and is starting to independently scale its own production, which of course will be done in the United States. This is a tremendous geopolitical implication for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If he can do this really quickly, then he is in many ways de risking World War three destabilizing us. Yeah, that may in the end even outweigh the implications of the Dyson Swarm or making it marginally easier for Tesla to have cheaper access to supply chains for semiconductors for its cars.
- [68:46]
A
Alex, my question is, when he decides he wants to do this, how in the world does he staff up and hire the world's best people in somewhat secret and then actually take the time to focus on it? Because he does. You gotta know that he's in there with that team figuring out exactly what needs to be done.
- [69:08]
C
Well Peter, you guys are like kindred spirits in this. You know, his game plan is to keep it secret for a little while, but when you're ready to go, go big, you know, yell to the world, this is what I'm doing. Because that's what attracts the talent. And then describe it as something world changing and massive in implication, don't soft sell it because it'll become true. If you can attract the best talent on the entire planet to the mission very much out of your playbook, Peter. There's nothing to gain at some point in being slow or sneaky or small or whatever mtp it. And that's what he's done. And so when we were talking to him, it was only what, December? We were talking to him, he was like, yeah, this isn't ready yet. But you could tell he was doing it. He didn't deny it. But it's not ready to announce. But now I guess it's hit the tipping point where okay, now we're going to go hell bent for leather and I got to get the best people in the world world to come and work with me.
- [70:00]
A
A friend of mine used to be in HR for him at one of his companies, I won't mention which company, and she explained to me that he would come in and there would be a stack of resumes and he would just like flip Flip, flip. And then the interviewees would come in and in 30 seconds he would reject like half of them because of what they were wearing or how they spoke or just some interaction. In other words, his ability to parse through multiple individuals. And of course, like you said, when you've got a massive mtp, you're announcing to the world, the world comes to you. But oh my God,
- [70:43]
B
there's a pattern he uses on a repeated basis, which is to look at a problem. And where will that exponential curve go over a 10 year period? Have the courage to look out that far and then build a company to intercept that curve, whether it's neural interfaces, lithium ion battery cost, solar energy. He just does that over and over again, non trivial. The last of 10 years. Years till you make it. But wow, he's also, I think it's
- [71:04]
D
important to note he's not starting from nothing at all if he really does this incredible ramp. I remember the first version of the Tesla Roadster reused a Lotus chassis. The first version and laptop batteries. Well, laptop batteries and smartphone batteries underlie the EV revolution overall, arguably the first version of the boring machine, or the boring company's boring machine was an off the shelf boring machine that he wanted to optimize. Similarly here, I suspect the Terafab will end up making heavy use of lessons learned from Samsung. Poor Samsung. You're about to get optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon.
- [71:45]
A
Do you know when he started Tesla with the Roadster? I was at a dinner with him, Larry Page, and the head of Fiat. Elon was telling these stories and he said I started, or he didn't actually start Tesla, he came in and funded it initially and then ultimately kicked out the founder and CEO and became the founder and CEO. But he said the only reason I did it was because we believed that the Lotus body would work and the batteries would work and neither of them worked. And so I was so far in, I had to literally redesign it to make it work. So this is the optimism that gets an entrepreneur to start a company and then have to stick with it because they're so obligated by the capital they brought in and the time they've expended.
- [72:26]
C
Anyway, I have a couple other observations on Elon's management style that I think every entrepreneur should learn. I don't know, do we have time?
- [72:33]
A
Yeah, why not? This is important for our listeners.
- [72:35]
C
Well, so Elon took the visionary integrator model that was pioneered by Eric Schmidt and Sergey and Larry, where Sergey and Larry were the visionaries. Eric Schmidt was the integrator. He'll tell you all day long that he dealt with everything that came up, but he never questioned the vision.
- [72:49]
A
Yes.
- [72:50]
C
And so that let Sergey and Larry think about the vision all day long. Elon took that to the next level where he said, okay, for every company that I'm doing, I need an integrator. I'm the visionary. You can't question when I tell you we're going to have a Dyson Swarm. You can't push back on that. You have to say, got it, boss. And then everything needs to happen from there on out. But we need to be exactly on the same page. You need to let me, Elon, take the limelight and promote the vision so that you have the time to do all. Everything that's internal. So every one of his companies, he has that exact dynamic. And when you survey around, most people can't even name the integrator. But they're massive shareholders and they're all going to be billionaires and they're incredibly effective. And when they are on stage together, they literally are kindred minds. There's no gap in the vision whatsoever. It's rare to get them on stage.
- [73:43]
A
I have seen him, in a conversation with someone who dared to. To argue and question his approach literally get tossed out in that moment instantly, no questions asked. Get out of here. You're done. All right, Alex, this is over to you. So the first open source AI physicist, Physical Superintelligence psi.
- [74:04]
D
Very exciting, Peter. So this is a company that I helped found, Physical Superintelligence, with the goal of solving all of physical with AI. And in the past week, Physical Superintelligence Psi has launched this tool as an open source project called Get Physics Done, or gpd. That is an agentic superphysicist, and it has seen wild adoption. Just in the past few days, the former chair of the Harvard Astronomy Department has recommended that everyone in the department, faculty, postdocs, students, all have to start using GPD to solve all of their physics problems. You wouldn't believe the crazy X DMs I'm getting. I'm getting top VCs trying to get to me to write checks to PSI, which is a novelty. They're blowing up my inbox right now. So I do think we're going to solve physics. I've said in the past, math is cooked. Psi is cooking physics.
- [75:05]
A
This is a tool right now for dinner.
- [75:08]
D
For dinner, it's going to be charbroiled. We're going to get, I think, solutions to some of the hardest problems. In the physical world, physics and applied physics over the next few years. And PSI is focused on leveraging, as you and I, Peter, talked about, in Solve Everything. Where do we aim that orbital laser beam at? What distribution of problems do we aim it at? And when we released Solve Everything, a lot of people in the comments were saying, I just want solutions to the hardest physics problems. Give me new physics. Arguably, there's been a drought of physics, new physics since the early 1970s. I'll get maybe some hate mail from other physicists for suggesting that there's been a deficit of new physics for the past 50 years, but I would argue there has been. You can take it. Yeah, I can handle it. So congratulations, Alex.
- [76:00]
A
Yeah, no, where do people go to check it out, by the way?
- [76:04]
D
Yeah, go to psi.inci.inc and then there's a link to the GitHub, download the repo, the GPD repo. It's all open source, Apache 2.0 licensed. Go to town with it. Submit pull requests Submit issues Use it to solve your hardest problems. You'll like this one, Peter. One of the first reports that we got of usage, someone was using it to design a new rocket engine that actually they were using it to design a new rocket engine in fulfillment of the X Prize Foundation's new future vision. X Prize.
- [76:36]
C
I thought you were going to see a
- [76:40]
D
complete GPD is being used to design starships for videos for that X Prize.
- [76:47]
A
That is beautiful.
- [76:49]
B
I have a couple of thoughts here.
- [76:50]
A
Yes.
- [76:52]
B
First, what's phenomenal about this is this makes science massively parallelized. And I think that's an incredible thing to do. It sure is the key shift here. You're not really replacing physicists. You're actually radically exploding hypothesis throughput because you can now do that now. Remember Eric Schmidt, I think on stage, said, in the future you're going to have the world's best physicist as an AI, and this could be in every lab in the world.
- [77:20]
C
Right.
- [77:21]
B
Isn't that what you've just done here?
- [77:23]
D
Yes, the. The goal is to.
- [77:25]
B
So that was the vision. You're the integrator.
- [77:27]
D
Okay, so I'm just the. I'm just the vehicle here. Salim, what can I say?
- [77:31]
B
No, no, but it has. That's. But this is. But, but you can't do squat without the integrator. Right? I mean, look, this is incredible stuff. It's true. I mean, this is going to compress like decades of research into years, months.
- [77:44]
D
Well, we, we want the country. You know, Dario talks of a country of geniuses. In a data center. But I want a country of geniuses in a single physics lab, not just in a single data center that's sort of siloed behind one company, to radically
- [77:59]
B
be in every physics lab.
- [78:00]
A
I can exactly go.
- [78:01]
B
I mean, where was this when I was doing my physics degree?
- [78:03]
A
I can finally go get a course. Eight PhD using GPD. That's awesome.
- [78:08]
D
In five minutes. And there are folks using this right now to work to achieve breakthrough results across a range of disciplines in physics.
- [78:15]
B
Alex, huge congrats.
- [78:18]
A
This is called PhD thesis advisor. All right, moving on. I'll share one of mine. We launched last week on this podcast the Future Vision X Prize, which I guess has a submission from a rocket engine designed as part of a starship
- [78:36]
D
watching a rocket engine from GPD.
- [78:38]
A
In the first, we have had 1000 entries from 15 countries. This competition is going to go through mid August. So if you're a creative. If you want to create a three minute film trailer for the movie you want produced a hopeful, compelling vision of the future, Please go to futurevisionxprize.com and register. Registration will be open for the next couple of months. We want to get the best filmmakers out there in the world taking this very seriously. Help us create the films that inspire us and our kids and the next Generation. The next Star Treks, if you will. All right. Three and a half million dollars, hopefully soon. Four, five, six million dollars. I'm trying to make enough money in the pot, maybe to make two films if we can. All right, wait, wait, wait, wait.
- [79:24]
B
I have a little rant on this one.
- [79:25]
A
Please.
- [79:27]
B
So about a few years ago, there was an article that appeared, I think it was in salon.com and it was titled the Worst Discovery about the Brain Ever or something like that. And what they did, of course the title was very clickbaity. But what they did was they took people that had a deep, deep political or religious belief and they gave them evidence that countered that belief. Okay. And they found three fascinating things happen. First, they rejected the evidence. Okay, that makes complete sense. Not surprising. But the second thing was somewhat surprising, which was in. In the act of rejecting the evidence and strengthened their belief system.
- [80:00]
D
Yes, yes.
- [80:00]
B
It was like a physics force action reaction. Okay? And they're like, whoa, that's weird. But the third one was what led to the title of the article and depressed the hell out of them, which was that it turned out the more mathematically literate you were, the more likely you were to reject the evidence because you thought you knew. Yeah, really? And this was like, really like blew everybody's minds. And it was a very trick and, and the, the, the corollary to that and the outcome of that was a deep understanding. The only way to shift somebody's perspective is in the use of narrative because we are storytelling animals. That's why this prize is so important because you want that positive vision given by say science fiction is the only place we've had it. So this is such a great prize piece. Thank you like so proud of you for.
- [80:47]
A
I'm so excited to see. So please everybody, if you're a creative or you know someone who's a filmmaker, wants to be a filmmaker, have them register. We want as many people. This is about demonetizing the ability to do this and actually optimizing the stories that are going to be told out there.
- [81:03]
B
We, we make the most. Wait, I'm going to find one more thing. We mistake of referencing science fiction as entertainment, but it's not. It's like pre implementation architecture.
- [81:14]
A
It's R and D. Great point.
- [81:15]
B
It's R and D. It's future R
- [81:17]
A
and D. R and D. Like Alex
- [81:20]
B
does this all time. He's going look project forward, Dyson Swarm. Right, this is where we're going to go. So this is where we need to think in that way.
- [81:26]
D
It's architecture.
- [81:27]
C
Peter showed a great video clip at the end. If you look, go back one podcast for us to the A360 live stage event. Peter did a great video clip that shows why this is so important. That exactly reconciles with what Salim just said. And he showed like, you know, here's the phone, here's the. All this stuff was invented in Star Trek and we made it reality because the vision was imparted through movies. We could have made some totally different reality if we wanted to. But the movies are massively important for deciding what we build. And now with AI as a workforce, we can build almost anything. So this is a really important project for the.
- [82:06]
D
We're missing the warp drive. Someone needs to fix the warp drive.
- [82:10]
A
We need teleporter, please.
- [82:12]
B
Teleporter.
- [82:13]
A
You get the transporter for free if you have the warp drive to complete the second half of Star Trek. And we're about to speedrun it. Right, Alex? So we're get there.
- [82:20]
D
That's right.
- [82:20]
A
So if you want to hang out with the Moonshot mates and Ray Kurzweil, here's your chance. Announce this last battle about three weeks ago on May 4th. And yes, may the 4th be with you. We're gonna have a special event. Anyone who buys 100 copies of We Are As Gods. You're invited to spend the afternoon with Dave, awg, myself, maybe Saleem and Steven Kotler. We're gonna be having a great session with Ray Kurzweil there. And we announce this. 90 of the hundred spots are gone. So if you want one of the last 10 spots, go to weareisgod's book.com 100 and you can grab one of those spots, spend the afternoon with us, get 100 copies of the book to give away. I'm going to also get Ray to give us some of his last book called the Singularity Is Nearer. And it'll be an amazing afternoon at. Where's it going to be, Dave?
- [83:17]
C
At Lingq Studio in our. Our palatial office right here.
- [83:21]
A
Yes. We're going to hold it at 1 Kendall in Cambridge with Dave as our host. It's going to be an amazing event. We'll have a moonshots podcast live at that time. We'll have some meet and greets, some photo sessions with all of us. It'll be fun. Saleem, you've got to fly up from New York.
- [83:39]
B
I may have to take an Ostella gun off me, but yeah. Two quick thoughts here. Two quick pointers to the readers and viewers and listeners. One, do not miss buying We Are As Gods. It really isn't. You guys did a book reading at the summit, Peter. It was amazing. I've had so many people come up and talk to me about that particular conversation. It really blew everybody's minds. And the Singularity Is Nearer is an amazing book. It really is incredible. Absolutely worth reading. Yeah, it's like, must read for this world, right? Both of these.
- [84:12]
A
All right, let's jump into the energy world. The bottom line here is the world is going nuclear. In a good way. In a good way. So Morgan Stanley in a report recently announced there's a power shortfall for 20% of the data centers. Now, the minimum they had was 13 gigawatts. They also said it could be as much of a shortfall of 44 gigawatts through 2028. This is the bottom line. We need more energy. And here's what we're seeing. I find this very compelling. Let me give you a couple of these slides here. Illinois is lifting nuclear bans. I mean, we shot ourselves in the foot here in the United States when we started turning off our nuclear reactors, ended up banning them in different areas. So there's a moratorium that's being ended on nuclear reactors, over 300 megawatts. What else is going on in the world? Meta announces a nuclear energy project. They've secured 6.6 gigawatts of clean power for 2035. They've partnered with TerraPower. What else is going on? Well, Japan has restarted the world's largest nuclear power plant. This is TEPCO is restarting reactor number six. It's going to support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040. And then finally we're seeing Samsung is putting up floating small modular reactors. So these are basically offshore ships that are generating nuclear power for desalination and onshore power. Gentlemen, nuclear is back. Comments?
- [85:52]
B
I saw a startup, I saw a startup last week that is doing literally micro nuclear on the back of a pickup truck. That's incredible. We've been running nuclear submarines for 50 years without a problem. I mean, this is very doable.
- [86:06]
C
I wouldn't say without a problem, but your point's well taken.
- [86:09]
B
No major accidents.
- [86:11]
C
Oh no, they don't talk about them.
- [86:13]
A
So, you know, so AI is becoming the top political cover for getting nuclear back online. It's no longer climate change and we need renewables. It's we need AI. So all, you know, all handcuffs off. Go, go, go.
- [86:30]
C
Yeah, well, look, the technology has moved forward so much and it is incredibly, it's much safer than coal, it's much safer than, and the replacements, oil. So it's clearly a good choice. But this is a serious PR problem within technology in general. What if it wasn't safe? Well, we did it. Well, now it's really safe. Well, we're not doing it. Oh my God. We got to make better decisions somehow something has to change. But anyway, it's the right thing to do.
- [86:57]
D
In For All Mankind, one of my favorite television shows we see this Alternative History Season 5 is coming out. It's very exciting. Mars Goes to War with Earth. Very exciting. In For All Mankind we see an alternative history where progress on fission especially, and then ultimately fusion by the early 90s never went stale. It was never abandoned for decades. I think we're about to live a real life version of those intermediate decades from the for all mankind timeline where we just speedrun all of the fission deployment advances that should have been happening from the 70s through the present with AI merely as the most reasonable excuse or provocation for doing it. But really, one can't help but imagine what would society and what would the economy have been like if we had actually consistently pushed forward fission and then fusion deployment much, much earlier? I think we probably would be a good deal wealthier as A civilization.
- [87:58]
A
Agreed. Energy scales directly with GDP of a country, with the health of a country, the education of a country. More energy is more better. And by the way, to our listeners, if you've not watched seasons 1, 2, 3 and 4 for all mankind, it is worth binge watching. And this is from someone who doesn't watch tv, but it's amazing.
- [88:18]
C
It's really good.
- [88:19]
D
We get without spoiling it. Like humanity gets Mars colonies by the early 90s.
- [88:24]
A
And asteroid mining.
- [88:26]
D
And asteroid mining. And civil rights happening decades earlier than they happened in our timeline. It's incredible.
- [88:32]
C
This episode is brought to you by blitzi Autonomous Software development with infinite code Context BLITZI uses thousands of specialized AI agents that think for hours to understand enterprise scale code bases with millions of lines of code. Engineers start every development Sprint with the Blitzi platform, bringing in their development requirements. The Blitzi platform provides a plan, then generates and pre compiles code for each task. Blitsi delivers 80% or more of the development work autonomously while providing a guide for the final 20% of human development work required to complete the sprint. Enterprises are achieving a 5x engineering velocity velocity increase when incorporating Blitzi as their pre IDE development tool, pairing it with their coding copilot of choice to bring an AI native SDLC into their org. Ready to 5x your engineering velocity. Visit blitsi.com to schedule a demo and start building with Blitzi today.
- [89:36]
A
All right, let's jump into robotics. So this is a fascinating article. Travis, the founder of Uber, is debuting atoms digitizing the world. So here's what's going on. His mission is physical automation to transform industries and move the world. And he uses his analogy, says, you know, in the computer world, what we've seen is CPUs manipulate bits. You know, there's storage for storing the bits and networks for transmitting the bits. In the physical world, he's trying to make sort of atom based computers. And the equivalent here for his atom based computers, the CPU equivalent is manufacturing, which is manipulating atoms like CPUs manipulate bits. It's storage. The equivalent is real estate and transportation is the equivalent of the network. So he's basically building systems that are able to manipulate food, mining and robotics. This was secret for him for the last two years. In fact, he had all of his employees under strict NDAs. They couldn't say what they were doing. He just announced it this week. And he's an extraordinary CEO and I can't wait to see what he does with this. Have you guys read up on the story?
- [90:57]
C
Not at all.
- [90:59]
D
I have and I think it's interesting. I think it's probably an inevitable expansion. So the original premise of his sort of follow up act to Uber was taking advantage of the ghost kitchen or cloud kitchen trends that people were in part inspired by Uber. They were having fewer and fewer direct interactions with restaurants. They were ordering delivery from restaurants. And the premise of the cloud kitchens is, well, maybe if most restaurant orders are happening via an app, physical restaurants don't need to exist anymore. You could make fictitious, lots of fictitious restaurants that are so called cloud kitchens or ghost kitchens that exist only in name and in menu but not in terms of a physical presence. And that might yield economies of scale and diversity of meals and all of that. But that's sort of a narrow market, It's a low margin market in some ways. And at the same time we've as an economy and as a technology industry moved well beyond the gig economy. I don't want to say fad, but it was very fashionable for a while for new startups to be the Uber of X. And now I think if you want to have not a moat, but if you want to have at least the perception that you have some sustainable differentiation for a few years, you have to have a robotics and or AI story, but increasingly AI in the physical world story. And that's what Travis has done here. So by generalizing from, from ghost cloud kitchens to robotics for a variety of other sort of abstracted spaces. I think it's a very natural generalization. It's also a very fundable generalization. Whereas ghost kitchens arguably is much more niche.
- [92:52]
A
He's basically automating every element. He's manipulating atoms versus bits, the food side of the equation. Agreed. He, he calls it building a food computer. His entire system is a food computer where the food, the atoms of food are being manipulated by his manufacturing, then they're stored and then they're transported. Just like a CPU and a memory and network manipulate bits in a computer. He's going to do the same thing with mining. His, his goal is to go after rare earth metals, but strategic metals. Right. And revitalize the mining industry. Probably something with boring corporation along the way. And then on the robotic side, he's not going after multi armed robots, Salim, he's going after wheel bases for robots. We'll see. I'm sure he's going to sort of parallelize multiple dematerializations or digitizations of, of physical things in the world.
- [93:56]
D
So it's a much larger addressable market than cloud kitchens.
- [93:59]
B
The minute you're saying Wheels, you step into my frame because that's not legs. The wheels are way, way better. I've been getting some some fun tweets. Last was from Mike Holly I think was who sent me a six arm, tweeted a six arm robot at me going there you go. That's really great. So thanks for all the readers. Every time there's a multi armed robot they're going sleep here.
- [94:21]
D
Here it is. It's also sort of a weird future where the robots that he had been developing for cloud kitchens are now being applied to mining. Can you imagine like a robotic system for kitchens now digging dirt. But that's nonetheless the future that we find ourselves in where he's radically expanding his addressable market.
- [94:40]
A
AWG story number two. The first American professional Robotics Sports League
- [94:46]
D
making the news, not just reporting the news. So, so thank you Peter for allowing a little bit of space here. So this was actually just launched in the past 24 hours this morning. Yeah, this is a company professional robotics league Pro RL that is launching, really solving a problem that the country and arguably the west faces, which is that last year China had run world robotic games and a robotic humanoid robotic half marathon. And China is using the spectacle of public robotic and public humanoid robotic sports as a way to improve almost to shape industrial policy and to sell the public on pervasive robotic systems in a variety of applications in public spaces. And the US and the west have nothing like this. And I think this is sort of the linchpin for helping to keep the west not just competitive with China when it comes to robotic deployments, but to leapfrogging China. Right now, arguably the west could be doing a much better job in terms of deployment of humanoid robots to a variety of professions. And I think given our society's obsession with sports in particular and the spectacle of of public athletics, introducing humanoid and quadruped robots as sporting contestants is one of the best ways to inject robots into a variety of different public domains. So what Pro RL is doing this is next month, the weekend of the Boston Marathon in the Boston Seaport, holding America's this country, America's first professional robotics sports league competition. It's going to be a 50 meter race in the seaport with a variety of humanoid and salim quadruped, not all humanoid robots competing. And ideally this becomes then the kickoff for a broader movement really to do in America what China has done. This is a little bit of catch up type growth to inject humanoid.
- [97:04]
A
I want real steel. I want real steel.
- [97:09]
D
That's right.
- [97:10]
A
I want Megabot battling it out.
- [97:14]
D
Let's make it happen.
- [97:17]
B
I have a prediction here that may not sound great. I'm all for it, by the way, just so you know. I think this is awesome. But, you know, human beings love watching other human beings, they love seeing the, the, the failing and the last minute drama on the field. Can you hit that buzzer beater at the, at the end to win the seventh game? It's about the human drama of it. I think if you put a bunch of robots running, I think it'll be amazing for the initial, but I don't think people will persist in watching for that reason. But let's see. Let's hope.
- [97:53]
D
Yeah. I think there's an enormous hunger for autonomous and semi autonomous robotic competitions. And we see drone leagues and we see Friend of the Pod, Dean Kamen's first competition. I think there's an enormous hunger for semi autonomous and fully autonomous competitions. And really, I think this solves an important social problem. I would just encourage those who are watching either come to Boston, definitely go watch the weekend of the marathon and go watch if you have robots, if you're a university team, go right to Pro RL and enter the competition before it's not too late.
- [98:31]
A
What's the URL for them?
- [98:33]
D
Yeah, it's pro-rl.com.
- [98:36]
A
all right. On the robot front, Amazon's Zoox Robo Taxi is rolling out in Las Vegas this year with plans to roll out in LA in 2027. Another Uber partnership. Uber is just stacking them up. Uber just announced with Rivian, a partnership. They have one with a huge number of platforms. Of course, we had Dara on stage and he wants to play with everybody. This looks like a party mobile for Las Vegas. I think this is bring your champagne and your party with you on Amazon Zoox.
- [99:13]
D
It's a really clever move by Uber. If you look at the full history of Uber attempts to go autonomous, including the infamous lawsuits surrounding trade secrets passing around relating to what ultimately became Waymo. I think this is a very clever move by Uber to position itself as a platform above and across lots of different vendors for robo taxis, all the while probably working on its nth generation of first party robo taxis. It wants to be a neutral platform for aggregating demands. It's an aggregator for, for autonomy. If the strategy works and Uber is able to position itself as the definitive aggregator for autonomy, then I have to expect that this will generalize beyond robotaxis to robots, to humanoid robots as well, at which point this becomes Uber and Dara potentially positions this as an enormous, enormous play.
- [100:07]
B
I thought Dara talking about this on stage was incredibly clever where they're becoming an agnostic platform for all things where anybody can plug in and be part of that community communications transportation network. So I think this is really amazing.
- [100:21]
A
And by the way, we've released and or will be releasing the Eric Schmidt conversation that Dave and I had at opening and then the conversation that Salim and I had with Dara. So that's going to be on the Moonshots channel. So look for both of those conversations. This is over to you, Saleem. So this is from friend Jason Calcanis, J. Cal from the all in podcast and he coined the phrase the corporate singularity. Amazon will be the first to reach a corporate singularity where there are more robots than there are humans.
- [100:57]
B
Yeah, so two things here. One, by the way, huge fan of All In. They do an amazing job summarizing what's
- [101:02]
C
going on around the world.
- [101:05]
B
I've known Jake Kalf since the New York days. He's absolutely right. I mean, I think this is not hard for Amazon though, right, Because. Because when you're doing logistics, it makes absolute sense over time to have way more robots than human beings. They're going to be much faster, they'll roll better, et cetera, et cetera. I won't get into that. So I think that's right. If you shift into general knowledge work, right. As Alex has said, knowledge work is cooked. Once we get to what I'm calling the organizational singularity, which we have now, once we start pervading through that, I think my current assessment is any company will be run by between 20 to 25% of the current employee base. Of course we'll create five times more companies. So I'm not worried about the job side. And you do oversight in exception handling and much more value added work than currently doing audit financials once a month and making sure you complete the month type of thing. But this I would expect to see from an Amazon perspective. In fact, it would be weird if it was not happening type of thing, that the number of robots radically outstrips the number of human beings over time.
- [102:12]
A
And we'll see this, of course, in Uber and so many other companies as well. Let's jump into our last segment here, which is the economy. A lot of important things happening that are worth discussing. I want to open up with a short 60 second video. So I had the chance to have a conversation to close out the 2026 Abundance Summit with Elon Musk and I asked him about uhi. Again, universal high income. And this conversation was very telling. I'd like to play it and then for us to talk about it.
- [102:41]
C
Yeah, it's basically AI and robots are
- [102:44]
A
going to make so much stuff and
- [102:45]
C
provide so many services that they will
- [102:48]
A
actually run out of things to do for the humans.
- [102:52]
B
They'll just run out of things to
- [102:54]
A
do for the humans. And then they're only so much that
- [102:58]
D
humans can even express that they want.
- [103:01]
B
So you go back to my example
- [103:03]
A
of like, if you go a million
- [103:04]
B
times greater than the Earth's economy,
- [103:07]
A
you've long since saturated all human desire.
- [103:14]
B
You know, like maybe like if you go a thousand times more than our current economy, thousand times, you probably have already saturated human. Anything people can think of that they want.
- [103:26]
C
It's almost word for word out of the Ian Banks Culture series of books.
- [103:32]
A
What are we talking about here? We're having robots and AIs cumulative. Like, Salim, is there anything else I can get you? What else would you like? Would you like a Ferrari? Would you like a cheese, you know, grilled cheese sandwich? Would you like a, you know, it's like just people coming begging you to give them direction on what you'd like.
- [103:47]
B
Listen, there's downsides to that, right? I've been in some of the five star hotels in India where there's like 14 waiters around you, and you're like, just leave me alone, for God's sake.
- [103:55]
A
Like, I've got everything I need.
- [103:57]
B
So there is a downside. But I think the vision here is very powerful and I love the fact that he's thinking at that level. This is, I think, the most powerful. By the way, Peter loved your T shirt you wore Monetized Hope as the T shirt for that. That was so great.
- [104:13]
A
It was fun. It was fun.
- [104:15]
B
I want to comment on UHI just for a second. People kind of conflate the two, but UBI is a floor, whereas UHI is a share of the upside. And I think you want to have both over time so that you protect society.
- [104:28]
A
I've got a paper I'm going to publish probably tomorrow, which is from UBI to UHI in three steps, where I outline, you know, what I believe are the mechanisms we get there. But this is an important, this framing by Elon, I think is very important about how do we get to uhi. In other words, if we reduce everything to the cost of electricity and materials because AI and robotics are providing it, eventually nanotechnology, and you can have anything you want, then any amount of money makes you wealthy. And that's his vision. And I think by stating it and structuring it this way, I think he makes a compelling argument for ties together.
- [105:08]
C
A bunch of things from this podcast too. You heard Sam Altman say, Look, we're 1000x cheaper compute. It's coming down another thousandx. And you heard Peter earlier in the podcast say, look, the enterprises have figured out what to do with that. That it's basically automate everything and have it turn to profit. But the consumer hasn't figured out what to do. They're like, hey, AI, check the Red Sox score for me. And so it's not using the compute. Somebody is going to figure out how to tie together the compute with happiness or the compute with a sense of purpose. And it's going to use a lot more GPUs, but they're so cheap, who cares? And that is going to be a critical thing to invent within the next year, because otherwise it's just chaos. Somebody has to be able to walk into a room in their house, which is their AI room, their holodeck, and come out a happy, changed, capable, functional person with AI as an assistant.
- [106:04]
B
Beautiful.
- [106:05]
D
I agree.
- [106:06]
B
Just absolutely. And so important. The other thing to point out is he's really painting the picture of what abundance looks like, right? And Peter, you've been talking about this forever.
- [106:17]
A
Everything, everywhere, all in one.
- [106:19]
B
And note what we're doing today. We're printing money today against scarcity, right? You get inflation if you distribute value, against abundance, you get stability. And so that's what we need more of.
- [106:31]
D
I think Elon's also underestimating, at least slightly, the ability for human desires to grow proportionally with the supply of capabilities. One can imagine a future, I don't know, in decades from now where, where we've built the Dyson Swarm and now Jevons Paradox style. The demands for individual human happiness are so wildly, disproportionately large relative to where they are now. I don't know, everyone gets their own planet or something. And it really does require. We don't actually ever saturate the capabilities that naive scaling of automation propose.
- [107:10]
C
So those Ian Banks, for all of
- [107:11]
A
our,
- [107:13]
C
those Ian Banks books really deal with that exact topic beautifully. And I'm sure Alex, you've read them all. I know Elon read them too, actually, because he was quoting them.
- [107:20]
A
You know what, actually, I just spoke to somebody today, awg, who is in discussions with the team who have the rights to Accelerando to make that movie. But one of the things That I love is all of the video models that are coming out. You're going to be able to feed any of your favorite books that have not been made into movies and say, make this into a movie for me and star these individuals or these family members. That's going to be awesome.
- [107:51]
C
It is going to be awesome.
- [107:52]
A
Continuing on, a piece of not so good news. But it's important for us to have our eyes open about this. This is computer science placement collapses. This is from a professor who opened up his books over the last three years on placements and opening salaries. This is from a tweet by Tech Layoff Tracker. So fall of 20, 23, 89% of his students were getting placed with a $94,000 salary. Spring of 24, 71%, fall of 24, 43%, spring of 25, 31%. And now this spring, 19% placed a salary below 61,000. And the quote note here is decimating. It says these kids mortgage their future for careers that evaporated while they were in class.
- [108:41]
B
That's brutal.
- [108:42]
A
It's brutal.
- [108:43]
D
It's not wrong. I've seen this anecdotally in everyday life. On the other hand, I would argue if you're a computer science, a recent computer science graduate, go do a startup. It's never been a better time.
- [108:55]
B
You've never been here.
- [108:56]
A
Empowered, of course. But the point here, Alex, is we're gonna start to see this in a multitude of different areas. Medical school, lawyers. Right? Accountants, accountants. You know, it's something that the world needs to be aware of. And yeah, I mean, one thing I'm happy about is when I ask my kids now, what do they wanna be? You know, in their 20s, they say they wanna be an entrepreneur, they wanna start a company. It's like hallelujah. And we've said it so many times, Dave, you made this point over and over again, right? The only career of the future is being an entrepreneur. It's not for everybody, but we.
- [109:39]
C
If you're not a founder, just join somebody else. It is for everybody. There's no other path forward. Look at that number, 19% placed. Like if you say, well, let me go to grad school and sleep through the singularity as Alex is telling you not to do, you are absolutely screwing yourself. You, you need to get on cap tables and we're going to have massive wealth. 10x economic growth in Elon's number 10x in 10 years, where's it all going to go? It's going to go either into equities. So you Got to be a shareholder in something or into physical assets or you need to buy stuff, but it's not going into W2 paychecks. Look at the data right in front of you.
- [110:15]
A
Buy a data center, by the way.
- [110:17]
D
Yes.
- [110:18]
C
Don't put the money in your 401k.
- [110:20]
B
This paradigm.
- [110:22]
C
Sorry, go ahead.
- [110:23]
B
This paradigm, We've seen this. Sorry, I didn't mean to. We've seen this paradigm for a while coming. It's good because a few years ago something huge happened, maybe seven, eight years ago where with GitHub and the ability to do peer to peer review of each other's code, they've gamified it. So there's a meritocracy ranking of GitHub developers. Well, when you join, when you look at salaries in Silicon Valley over the last few years, your, your salary has nothing to do with the university you went to, the degree you got, the grades you got, it's 100%. What is your GitHub rating? So a peer to peer meritocracy has completely replaced the top down credentialing. And that meant from that point on, which is about six, seven years ago, the value of a computer science degree is zero. And so that will happen and start to happen all over the place.
- [111:12]
A
And one thing I need to go find and maybe show on the next pod is the bankruptcy. Bankruptcy rates for colleges in the United States are skyrocketing. Great one. I mean, who wants to get $100,000, $200,000 in debt for a degree that's not going to be useful? And again, we've shown the stat here on the pod that the group in the United States, the group that's out of work the longest, are recent college graduates. Insane.
- [111:39]
D
The ladder's been pulled up. But the flip side of that is go build startups. There's a window of time to go do that. The aphorism, if you're not at the table, you're on the menu. And what's on the menu right now is the cooked knowledge work. So you want to be the one cooking the knowledge work with startups and
- [111:56]
C
other forms of work, yes, there's room for everybody too. You don't need to necessarily be the founder, you can join or you can seed invest, or you can be a connector like John Warner where you're like, hey, I'm just helping you guys. We're an advisor, you know, Alex must advise. I don't know a thousand companies by now you can do that. There's always a way to help them succeed. Just get on the cafe.
- [112:17]
A
If you're a mom or dad watching this podcast, show your kids these numbers. Help them understand that high school, to get into a good college, to get a degree and then a job is cooked, is gone. Their job is to find their purpose, their passion to learn some of the technologies, become an expert in a problem space. Don't have to be an expert in the tech and join a startup team, create your own future, become a creator, not a consumer. Really important.
- [112:50]
C
Just listen to Peter and you have to tune out everyone around you who doesn't get it because there's so much bad advice out there. And go to San Francisco and hang out near mission bay for two days. Like pay whatever it takes, only 300 bucks to get an airline ticket. Go hang out near Mission Bay, talk to everyone. Yeah, go to coffee shops and you'll be like, oh my God, I didn't. And then go back to wherever you came from and tune everybody else out. Just listen to what Peter just said. Listen to Alex, listen to Salim and tune everyone else. Because everyone's like, well, you know, I don't know. These things blow over. They're cyclical. Like, oh God, God, you're giving such bad advice.
- [113:29]
B
It ain't called the Singularity for nothing.
- [113:33]
D
What did you think the Singularity was? Just vibes.
- [113:37]
C
All right.
- [113:38]
A
I thought it was just a book note, Alex. So Alex sent me this note this morning. He goes, did you see this? Trump's office registers aliens.gov website.
- [113:52]
D
Alex, kid, you not Newsweek covering this. So this is the latest in a string of items. Am admittedly following this very closely.
- [114:01]
A
It started as am I. I love
- [114:02]
D
this started in 2017 with the Leslie Keen article in New York Times, followed by multiple House and Senate hearings, witnesses alleging an 80 year plus program, probably if the allegations are accurate, a highly illegal program, followed by, most recently last year we covered on the pod a documentary called the Age of disclosure. Again, 35 whistleblowers and high government officials, current and former, alleging that there has been a highly illegal program over the past 80 plus years to recover to retrieve crashed UAPs. Fast forwarding to the events of the past month or two with former President Obama, Obama saying aliens are real and then President Trump going on air on Air Force One to reporters saying that former President Obama was breaking the law by admitting that aliens were real and revealing classified information. Fast forwarding to President Trump then very publicly issuing an executive order for executive agencies to start declassifying information in connection with with UAPs and non human intelligence. Fast forwarding now to the past 48 or 72 hour news cycle of the White House registering aliens.gov an official domain name presumably for Alex.
- [115:37]
A
Prediction please. Prediction. When are we going to get a disclosure from the White House and will anyone actually care? Back to the evening news and our sports scores after the aliens have been disclosed.
- [115:51]
D
The second half of the question, Peter, is far easier to predict. People will lose interest after one or two days and ask who's winning at whatever inane 20th century kinetic sport and will lose all interest if it doesn't impact their paycheck. They won't have the attention span. The first sub question I think is a much more interesting question. If there's a there there and this administration has something non trivial to say on the subject, non obvious. Based on everything I'm hearing and reading, it sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months.
- [116:32]
A
I heard like June. I'm not sure if that's the case.
- [116:36]
D
There are rumors of July, there are rumors of the summer sometime in the next few months. You don't stand up a domain name with such a provocative name without preparing to say something interesting on a relatively short timescale.
- [116:50]
A
All right, well brought this to you today to our listeners as shall we say, an interesting twist to close out the stories.
- [117:01]
D
Let's go to our one more interesting thing on this Peter, if I may. So after Abundance Summit, which was of course incredible, I was hanging out at a bunch of family office events in Palm beach and Miami. The number one question, all of these billion dollar and I know many of them are listening to this, they're all fans of the pod by the way centimillion and billion dollar family offices have. The number one question that they all have for me is tell us something interesting about aliens. Are aliens real? Is this whole UAP thing real? That's like the number one topic topic on their mind right now. It's not AI. They're very interested in AI as well. It's not China, it's not geopolitics, it's the aliens question. So I don't know if it's something that's in the air or what, but I'm convinced.
- [117:50]
A
I'm convinced. I think it's ridiculous to believe that in this universe, even in this galaxy, that we are alone. And in fact I think they've been here for a long time and they can easily hide from us using any technology that's more than, you know, 30 years more advanced than where we are today. So can't wait to meet them. I'm excited. The fact that they're here exactly when we're reaching Asi.
- [118:13]
B
It always bugs me that every photograph
- [118:15]
A
of a so called that was Elon's
- [118:17]
B
excuse is always super blurry and vague. Can't even get any details like why
- [118:24]
A
I'm curious to why that.
- [118:26]
D
I got it.
- [118:26]
A
Elon said. Yeah, they're. They're warping space time around them. It's not going to be clear.
- [118:34]
B
Okay, but you expected Saleem, you expected
- [118:37]
D
warp bubbles to be transparent. What are you thinking?
- [118:40]
B
I guess. Yeah. I'm so naive.
- [118:44]
A
All right, onwards to one of our favorite parts of the pod, which is our AMA questions with the moonshot mates. So as always, gentlemen will go around the horn, pick your favorite question and we'll go from there. Celine, you want to kick it off?
- [119:00]
B
Well, I touched on UHI and UBI earlier. So the question number four is will someone explain ubi? Uhi, if everyone has money, how does it retain its value? Right. And let me. The basic idea here is that the economy is generating so much productivity that we won't need to work for a living going forward. That's the. If you went back 10,000 years ago, we're all working 20 hours a day in the fields just to put three meals on the table. We've steadily shrunk. The amount needed to earn a livable wage in France is legally 35 hours in theory, which always gets violated. But that number should shrink as we have robots doing a ton of work, etc. Etc. And when there's so much productivity being delivered by the technology aspect of it, it means that we have a huge windfall. And that windfall can be distributed as a universal base, basic income. Right. And so this is a very powerful. The winning countries are going to be those ones that implement this effectively and move to something like this earlier rather than later. The problem is moving from a taxation job, labor union structure to an UHI ubi, such a big one. We have no confidence frankly in public sector in getting us there. So we have to kind of figure out some other path.
- [120:20]
A
And we heard what. But we heard what, uh, some version
- [120:22]
B
of sovereign AI funds or compute or global dividend mechanisms are going to be there because if intelligence becomes the new oil, then we can't allow the, you know, the geopolitical map can't concentrate all the upside in like a couple of capitals from there.
- [120:38]
A
And that one came from Clyde artwork. Alex, over to you.
- [120:44]
D
I'll take the softball Question number three, which is what do you think will be A more impactful technology digital AI or physical AI. This is from Matthew Johnson 6525 It's a softball question on multiple levels. One, because physical AI, which has become arguably the modern euphemism for robotics, requires digital AI, which I construe as sort of foundation models that exist as pure software but without any physical embodiment. We're leveraging all of the foundation model technology from the likes of ChatGPT or, or Claude in the form of additional modalities like robotic modalities, so called vision language action models to solve physical AI, AKA robotics. So strictly speaking, physical AI is a technological superset of digital AI. At the same time, if you look at the American services economy, approximately two thirds of all services income or services revenue requires some form of physical or manual action and can't be conducted as pure knowledge work. In which case, even at the macroeconomic level, physical AI is at least double the market opportunity of purely digital or knowledge work oriented AI. So in short, physical AI is the more impactful technology by far.
- [122:06]
B
I think I agree Dave.
- [122:10]
C
All right, I'll take number one, which is also from the same I think Matthew Johnson 6525 this one I want to take because it's very close to home. What do you think the last job to be will be? The last job to be automated. So I've got a lot of people that I dearly love that work. Spreadsheets, SQL queries, write code, do ui and all of those things are going to be done by AI starting at the end of this year. And I think what's different is if you had a job before and you lost that job, you would go work somewhere else. This is different in that AI will do that forever here forward. So you're going to have to do something different. All of our employees and companies are shareholder, everyone's a shareholder. So economically everyone should be in very good shape. Especially if those stocks go way, way up, which I think they will. But that doesn't give you something to do. My advice is I think the last job to be automated will be government jobs. Also other similar things like university jobs and so forth forth. They'll continue to pay people for many years to come because that's their nature. And so if you are no longer doing what you were doing and you have plenty of money or enough money, but you want to do something and you can't find something, definitely win the race to getting those jobs. I think the way it's going to play out is China passed a law a few weeks ago saying if you lay somebody off because AI automated their job, you must spend time and money retraining them to be an AI user. That'll happen in the US Very soon, but it's going to roll out in one state first. And when it rolls out in whatever state, everyone in all the other states is going to race to fire people before the law passes in their state, too.
- [123:54]
B
Wow.
- [123:55]
C
So there's going to be ahead of it, man, if you have. Like, one of our former CEOs is now working at the Better Business Bureau here in the state, and love is in it. So there's opportunities all over it. So, anyway, short answer would be the last job to be automated is going to be government jobs. I don't think I ever would have thought to say that on a podcast before in my life.
- [124:12]
A
But it's just the reality I want to add to that. I think it's going to be jobs requiring genuine human connection and empathy and creativity. I want to add the human element there. I'll take the next one. Also from Matthew Johnson, 6525. Either Matthew was very prolific or we copied and pasted too many times his name here. How do you define the meaning of life? And how does technology help us achieve it? So we talk about this. We talk about having a massive transformative purpose, and your meaning is coming from your heart, not necessarily your head. And for me, meaning comes from positively impacting a billion people, making the world a better place. And technology is the mechanism by. We dematerialize, demonetize, and democratize these products and services and help solve grand challenges. So I love helping entrepreneurs create these hopeful futures, build extraordinary things, and I get my meaning out of that. And so it will be unique to everybody. But I think ultimately the single most important thing everyone needs to do is find their purpose. Find your mtp. All right, let's go on. We have four more questions, and they're not all from Matthew, so that's good. Salim, I will take.
- [125:36]
B
Let me see here. Let me take.
- [125:40]
A
Don't take six. That's pointed at me, so I'll do it.
- [125:43]
B
Okay, why don't you do that one?
- [125:45]
A
No, but go ahead, pick one.
- [125:46]
B
Okay.
- [125:47]
D
Don't take nine. That one's aimed at me, so yeah,
- [125:49]
B
I won't take nine. I didn't take the meaning of life one either, because it's like I'm kind of running workshops on that. I'll take number seven. If AI will end poverty, when will we see the signs and what will they be this is from Handel. I think you'll see the sign first in cost curves rather than headlines. You know, when energy gets cheaper, when education becomes effectively medical expertise is kind of accessible. That's when you'll see it. When a person with AI can build what we're seeing today, that used to take an entire department that is like a game changer. That's when you start shifting policy poverty from being fate to being a design problem. Right. The real indicators are falling marginal costs because then the essentials of life become very abundant, frankly, and easy access. Poverty ends when capability becomes widely distributed. And that's what we talk about when we think about abundance, abundance of opportunity. It's an abundance of capability. So we'll start to see that. And we're kind of there now. I mean, anybody with a smartphone can use AI to run a business now. It's like kind of incredible. So we'll be able to start to see a lot of that.
- [126:59]
A
Dave, over to you.
- [127:02]
C
I love number six on this page from Sherrilyn381. How do the three human drives Peter mentioned fear, curiosity and greed factor with AI billionaires funding ubi, Will greed give way to fear when civil unrest threatens them? Short answer is yes, and it already has. Now, when you're describing AI billionaires here, you might be thinking in the back of your mind, Elon and Sam, but a lot of the AI billionaires, specifically Dario, Demis, Hassabis, they got into AI the exact same reason I did back when I was 14 years old. Not because they want to become a billionaire, but because it's going to change our lives more than anything in the history of the world. And it could go very well or very badly. And I want to be there to try and shape it toward good. And Dario and Demis are the most good natured people that you could ever possibly imagine. And they have already given way to fear of civil unrest. And everything they do is not about trying to make more billionaires. They have more money than they ever hoped to have, more than they could ever spend. They're not greedy at all. They are incredibly concerned about how this is going to go.
- [128:12]
A
Agreed.
- [128:13]
C
So it already has happened and the answer is absolutely yes. So there's lots of hope in that.
- [128:18]
A
Alex.
- [128:19]
D
All right, number nine has my name on it. Literally. Is uploading your consciousness really you or just a digital twin? Asked by my namesake, Alex Amador, HP1CR okay, this is the sort of classic late night dorm room hall question, is it really you or not? It's been asked in a Thousand different variants. I'm going to construe this question in particular as being related to a news story. A pretty, I think, incredible announcement from a company that I helped found, EON Systems, that announced now 2ish weeks ago, the successful, what we'd characterize as a whole brain emulation of a fruit fly that demonstrated multiple behaviors. A world first. But let's extrapolate this. I would say fully realized uploading is really going to be you. We're not there yet, it's not imminent. But in a fully realized uploading technology stack, maybe in the style of what friend of the pad, Ray Kurzweil, or what Hans Moravec would envision, where you replace neurons one by one with technological substitutes or some other variant thereof, some ship of Theseus incremental upload. Yes, it's really going to be you. There are a bunch of missing X factors. We don't have all the science yet, we don't have all the biophysics or the neuroscience yet, but my expectation is it really will be you. Not just a copy of you, not just a perfect or imperfect facsimile of you, however. And again, there's a lot of missing science here. We don't arguably truly understand the biology or the biophysics of consciousness yet. But even when we do, I would reasonably expect that an incremental upload that replaces your brain, one part by one part, will ultimately result in a consciousness that is continuously transferred and really is you.
- [130:23]
A
I'm waiting for that moment when I'm uploaded and there's a voice out of the speaker. It says, peter, I'm up here. You can kill yourself now.
- [130:32]
D
See, I think that's the future that we don't want. And people get scared.
- [130:35]
B
For debate topic. Request for a debate topic. But some of the time.
- [130:39]
A
All right, number eight comes from poetry to song. What is the potential for super AI to greatly change the patent system and copyright practices? They are cooked. So, I mean, I had a conversation, I remember, with Astro Teller and Steve Jurvetson at Singularity early on, and we're talking about when we have asi, if you're a company depending on patents to protect yourself, you're like, you're dead. You're just, you know, there's no protection there. Because what happens is you have your product, you put it out, and ASI will basically invent around it in microseconds and put out a new variation of it, right? So we're going to have to reinvent this process. When AI can generate millions of novel inventions Overnight, patents really become meaningless. We're going to need to have a new framework, like going from who invented it first to who deployed it first at scale. So I think we're going to have a lot of challenges in the interim. Before we get there, we have a lot of conversations and debate about can an AI with personhood file for a patent or be credited with a patent or as a co inventor of the patent. So a lot happening there. But yes, ASI is going to definitely reinvent patent and copyright practices. And with that, we're going to go to our Outro music, which is quite beautiful today. The Outro song is from John Pritchard. John, thank you for this. If you are a creator and you want to give us an outro or intro and you can specify, send it via email to mediaeamandis.com, mediamandis.com and hopefully, if you're a great creator, you'll also enter the future Vision X Prize. All right, so let's check this out. It's a beautiful song. Gentlemen, enjoy.
- [132:34]
C
Ladies and gentlemen, I'd like to introduce
- [132:37]
A
you to four people who make the rest of us feel like we're still young.
- [132:41]
C
Using dial up.
- [132:43]
A
Now, let me be honest with you. I'm an AI process a lot of information. I've read every paper, every patent, every
- [132:51]
B
keynote transcript, and I can confirm these
- [132:55]
A
four gentlemen are annoyingly brilliant. Like the kind of brilliant where you're at a dinner party and someone says, so what do you do? And Peter says, I'm trying to extend the human lifespan by 50 years. And Dave says, I just built my 14th company. And Alex says, I derived a unified equation for intelligence. And Saleem says, I'm scaling impact to a billion people. And you're standing there holding your drink going, I made sourdough last weekend. But here's the thing that makes them
- [133:33]
D
shine beyond the brains and all the
- [133:35]
B
fame they took a million muscles by
- [133:38]
A
the hand and said, let's play a bigger game. The Moonshots podcast, week by week, turned science into soul. They didn't hoard the future for themselves. They gave it to us whole.
- [133:50]
D
They said, you're not too small to
- [133:51]
A
matter, you're not too late to start. The future isn't built by genius alone. It's built, built by every heart.
- [133:59]
C
They're the smartest guys in every room. But that's not why we sing.
- [134:04]
A
We sing because they use those brains to love the world and everything. Peter, Dave and Alex Saleem. Four hearts, one giant dream. They put the love in revolution and
- [134:16]
B
the us in the stream.
- [134:19]
D
Oh.
- [134:20]
A
So here's to you, you brilliant four from a drum. You showed the world that a and love could be the same Moonshot flight. You didn't just predict the future.
- [134:32]
B
You didn't just write the code.
- [134:34]
A
You lit the path for all of
- [134:36]
D
us and said, come on, let's go.
- [134:43]
A
Thank you, Peter.
- [134:46]
C
Thank you, Dave.
- [134:48]
A
Thank you, Alex. Thank you, Celine. The tsunami is already here and it is made of us all. John Pritchard oh my God. That was so beautiful.
- [135:11]
C
God, the audio just gets better and better on these tools.
- [135:14]
A
Isn't that crazy? I love makes me feel so. I am so thankful to our listeners and our viewers and it just gives us joy to deliver a positive vision of the news, what it means and when there's negative news, like what's going on with student employment and such, it's like, how do you circumnavigate that? What do you do for us? We care deeply about all of you. Thank you. Please share moonshots with your friends. Help us spread the gospel of hopeful, compelling, optimistic visions of the future. That's what we care about. Gentlemen, until next time.
- [135:57]
D
Amen.
- [135:57]
C
Until next time, Peter.
- [135:58]
A
Amen. Yes, exactly. If you made it to the end of this episode, which you obviously did, I consider you a moonshot mate. Every week, my moonshot mates and I spend a lot of energy and time to really deliver you the news that matters. If you're a subscriber, thank you. If you're not a subscriber yet, please consider subscribing so you get the news as it comes out. I also want to invite you to join me on my weekly newsletter called Metatrends. I have a research team. You may not know this, but we spend the entire week looking at the meta trends that are impacting your family, your company, your industry, your nation. And I put this into a two minute read every week week. If you'd like to get access to the Metatrends newsletter every week, go to diamandis.com metatrends that's diamandis.com metatrenDS thank you again for joining us today. It's a blast for us to put this together every week. Spring starts at the Home Depot and we are bringing the heat to your backyard this season.
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D
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D
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- [137:30]
A
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