Podcast
More or Less
Hosted by BBC Radio 4 · EN
Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.
85episodes
Episodes
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How much luck do you need to win the World Cup?
2d ago00:08:59Summary readyAs the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance? We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk CONTRIBUTORS: Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University Luis Nunes Vincente, Mathematician at Lehigh University CREDITS: Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O'Neill Editor: Richard Vadon
SummaryDoes playing tennis make you live 9.7 years longer?
1w ago00:08:58Summary readyRecently a post did the rounds on Twitter, claiming that people who play tennis live on average 9.7 years longer than people who play other sports.The figure comes from a recent analysis of people's exercise habits in Denmark. But not everyone on Twitter was convinced. Tennis is a sport that in many countries is expensive to play and so attracts wealthier players. Couldn't it be the players' socio-economic status driving the trend?We speak to medical statistician Adam Jacobs, to understand what the study in question can, and cannot, say for certain. If you see any stats that look too good to be true and want us to check them out, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Siobhan Reed, Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: James BeardImage Credit: Adrian Dennis, Getty Images Sport
SummaryDoes the average teacher really earn £54,000?
2w ago00:28:28Summary readyTim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:32) A government minister has informed the nation that average teacher pay in England is around £54,000. Radio 4 listeners are howling at the radio in disbelief. Surely someone from the IFS would be able to explain all this? We interview someone from the IFS to explain all this.(06:32) A headline in the Independent suggests that Russian soldiers survive an average of 20 minutes when they get to the front line, citing a historian, citing Russian bloggers. Is the number a good one? We take a peek into the murky information ecosystem that surrounds the war in Ukraine.(15:00) A loyal listener has resent a burning question that - mortifyingly - he first asked us nearly three years ago: why is air travel cheaper than rail travel? We push our guilt deep, deep down then make it worse by challenging the premise of the question.(21:18) Is every shuffle of a deck of cards an unprecedented event in the history of the universe? It’s a bold claim, but maths YouTuber and comedian Matt Parker has done his homework. We invite him into the studio to make his case - and show off his shuffling skills.More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Guests: Luke Sibieta - Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Andrey Vladov - BBC Monitoring Mark Galeotti - author of Forged in War - A Military History of Russia from its Beginnings to Today Simon Calder - Travel Correspondent at the Daily Telegraph Matt Parker - Mathematician, comedian and YouTuber (Stand-up Maths)Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Josh McMinn Producers: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele, Siobhan Reed Sound Engineer: James Beard
SummaryDoes a full moon make crime rates go up?
2w ago00:08:58Summary readyThe Moon is one of the most captivating features of our night's sky, and apparently, one of the most suspicious.... For thousands of years, people have blamed the full moon for strange behavior. From ancient myths and the origins of the word lunacy to modern police folklore, the idea that a bright moon can influence human actions is one that many believe. But what does the data tell us? We spoke to Professor Eric Chudler, who has looked at crime rates and lunar cycles to discover whether the moon truly is the ultimate crime puppeteer. If you spot any suspicious numbers in the news or life and want us to investigate, please email in to: moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Mix: James Beard Production coordinator: Siobhan Reed
SummaryExamining the numbers behind Andy Burnham’s ‘Manchester Miracle’
3w ago00:28:29Summary readyTim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:23) Andy Burnham may not be Prime Minister yet, but he’s setting out his economic agenda, and its based on his old stomping ground, Greater Manchester. We ask whether the official figures that seem to show an economic miracle can be fully believed, and how much credit he deserves.(10:09) As our towns and cities get hotter, would turning to air conditioning really drive outside temperatures up by 10 to 12 degrees celcius? We learn about the fascinating world of ‘urban heat islands’.(15:40) We turn to homophones in an attempt to continue a running joke. This week, we follow six items about Wales with an item about whales - are our cetacean friends the carbon sinks of our dreams? Will we ever write a stranger paragraph?(22:10) Cult director and maths fanboy Werner Herzog has been waxing lyrical about the intruiging mysteries of prime numbers. Tim cracks out a surprisingly decent impression and we learn about one of the most inscrutable problems in mathematics - what’s not to like?More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Guests: Paul Swinney - Chief Economist at The Data City Liam Sides - Associate Director at Oxford Economics Dimple Rana - Heat Resilience Leader at Arup Sue Grimmond - Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading Dr Olaf Meynecke - Marine Ecologist, Griffith University James Grime - Mathematician and star of YouTube channel NumberphileSpecial Guest Appearance: The Voice of Werner HerzogPresenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard
SummaryThe messy history behind the modern calendar
3w ago00:08:58Summary readyThis year, the UK has had its hottest May and June days on record, with the mercury hitting the high thirties.But while the markings on a thermometer seem scientific and regular, the way we split up our calendar does not. Why, for instance, does May have 31 days and June have 30?To find out why our calendar has its modern form, we speak to Kristen Lippincott, former director of the Royal Observatory at Greenwich, and author of The Story of Time. If you have seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim Harford Producer: Josh McMinn Series Producer: Tom Colls Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon
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Benefits vs minimum wage: Which pays more?
4w ago00:28:29Summary readyTim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it.(09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you).(14:34) In a tournament with so many teams, we’ve had to consult a university professor to understand the mysterious mathematical workings of the World Cup Draw. It’s even more complicated and confusing than VAR! (OK, it’s not that bad.)(19:00) Welsh comedian Elis James has a superpower - finding mutual connections with his fellow countrymen and women. So let’s add to the fun by providing a statistical framework upon which to understand his achievements. That’s how comedy works, right?More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in the news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Guests: Eduin Latimer - Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Dr Chloe Brimicombe - climate scientist and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oxford Dr Kat Phillips - innovation research associate at the University of Warwick and a digital maths communicator under the name ‘KatDoesMaths’ Oliver Johnson - Professor of Information Theory, the University of BristolReturning Special Guest appearance:Elis James: comedian and well-connected WelshmanPresenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard
SummaryIs the US worse than North Korea for malnutrition deaths?
Jun 2000:08:57Summary readyThis surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media: ‘The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’. The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums. The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from Malnutrition than China and North Korea. The rate in the US was 2.8 deaths per 100,000 compared to just 1.7 deaths per 100,000 for North Korea. From what we know about the two countries this seems unlikely, so what’s going on here? We talk to Dr Krstina Newport, Chief Medical officer for the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Care Medicine to find out more.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Duncan Hannant
SummaryDoes Europe suffer more heat deaths than the US?
Jun 1700:28:38Summary readyTim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:31) Claims have circulated on the internet that Europe sees a particularly high number of deaths from heat waves, especially when compared to the US. Can we really compare the statistics, and is air conditioning a silver bullet?(06:59) Sainsbury’s are making the switch from brown to white eggs, on the basis of claims about their carbon footprint - but how do you work this out? We talk to an egg man about eggs. A lot.(13:56) Are Conservative MPs frit? That’s what a Labour MP thinks after a recent PMQs saw no Conservative backbenchers ask a question. Are they really afraid to ask Keir Starmer a question? Or is it just probability?(19:20) In a series full of Welsh twists, another Welsh twist; have we been guilty of drastically underestimating the area of Wales by failing to account for its majestic mountains and plunging valleys? Topography is top of mind for our top team.More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.Guests:Gary Ford - policy advisor at the British Free Range Egg Producers Association Dr Laura Graham - computational and spatial ecologist at the University of Birmingham Dr Jen Visser Rogers - statistician and chief scientific officer at Coronado Research.Special guest appearance:Elis JamesPresenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill
SummaryAndrew Ross Sorkin: What can the Great Crash of 1929 tell us about today?
Jun 1300:08:58Summary readyThe Great Crash of 1929 has faded into history, but financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin argues it holds vital lessons for today. Andrew came into the studio in London to discuss what we can understand about the crash in numbers, from ticker-tape running hours behind plunging stock prices to crucial metrics that sound the alarm bells before a financial crisis. Are they sounding today, in the middle of an AI stockmarket boom?Andrew’s new book is ’1929: Inside the Crash’.Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard
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