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$13B Mega-Deal Creates Advertising Giant & Google’s Staggering Quantum Computer
00:30:34
A mega-merger to create the world’s biggest ad giant & Google unleashes a state-of-the-art quantum chip
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- [00:01]
Neal Freyman
Ryan Reynolds here for I guess my hundredth mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, don't. No, no, no. I mean honestly when I started this I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean it's unlimited to Premium Wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much? I'm sorry, I shouldn't be victim blaming. Here, give it a try@mintmobile.com save whenever you're ready. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only. Taxes and fees, extra speed slower above 40 gigabyte CD tails. Good morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
- [00:35]
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
- [00:36]
Neal Freyman
Today the ad companies behind Got Milk and think different are combining to upend the marketing industry. Is it because they're worth it then?
- [00:44]
Toby Howell
Google has made a quantum leap in quantum computing. It's Tuesday, December 10th. Let's ride. A suspect in the killing of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson was taken into custody yesterday in Altoona, Pennsylvania. Luigi Mangione, a 26 year old former high school valedictorian from Maryland was arrested after being recognized at a McDonald's 280 miles away from the initial crime scene. They found Mangione in possession of a gun similar to the one used in the shooting. Multiple fake driver's license as well as a three page handwritten manifesto. According to online court records, Mangione has been charged with murder hours after he was apprehended. He was also charged with three gun related charges and forgery. So Neil, finally a suspect in custody. What do we know about Luigi Mangione as of now?
- [01:36]
Neal Freyman
Well, we know quite a bit. He had a very extensive digital footprint that people were combing yesterday. He did come from a prominent and influential real estate family in Baltimore. Went to a prestigious prep school there named Gilman. Then went to UPENN for engineering. Got a bachelor's and a master's there. It seemed like he was very interested in technology, computer gaming. He even built a mobile app before college. And from his Goodreads it seems like he was is very interested and is from his Twitter profile very interested in things like self improvement, healthy eating. Also veered into criticism of capitalism. And then feels like a few months ago he kind of went off the map after back surgery. And his manifesto he railed against health insurance companies and corporate America saying they were seeking profits over putting customers and Americans for so still a long way to go to understand what, what really motivated him. But quite a digital footprint that left a lot of people, you know, amateur sleuths researching what this guy was all about. He's now being held without bail in Pennsylvania and at some point will be extradited to New York.
- [02:45]
Toby Howell
Yeah. And we'll keep you updated as we learn more about this story. Now a word from our sponsor, Sage. Neal, can I hit you with some stats early this morning?
- [02:53]
Neal Freyman
Do it.
- [02:54]
Toby Howell
If you ever wonder if all this AI hype actually leads to real business impact, just listen to the finance pros Sage talked to. They found that 87% of CFOs who have incorporated AI report a significant effect on their businesses. And 88% that use machine learning also see a strong influence on business outcomes.
- [03:13]
Neal Freyman
And these are the movers and shakers at their companies to top CFOs, saying overwhelmingly that they are using the power of AI and automation to transform their roles.
- [03:21]
Toby Howell
So if you are a financial decision maker, consider trying out Sage. Its outlier detection capabilities and capacity to optimize decision making will turn you into a growth driver at your company.
- [03:32]
Neal Freyman
Sage lets movers and shakers like you move and shake. Visit sage.com for more information. That's sage.com it was merger Monday on Madison Avenue as advertising giant Omnicom agreed to buy another advertising giant, Inter Public Group, to create, you guessed it, the largest advertising company in the world. The tie up is legacy marketing's response to AI and big tech firms like Facebook and Google revolutionizing the way advertising works at their expense. You may not have heard of Omnicom, an interpublic group before, but their vast network of agencies are behind many of the TV commercials you mute and the online ads you scroll quickly past. Their client rosters include AT&T, Amazon, Pepsi, Unilever and Geico. While they're responsible for some of the most iconic ad campaigns in history, such as Apple's think different, L'Oreal's because I'm worth it and Got Milk. Together the combined company will be worth more than $30 billion.
- [04:29]
Toby Howell
But times are a change in and this isn't Don Draper's ad industry anymore. The days of asking Peggy and Michael to whip up some copy and present it to your client on an easel are over. Artificial intelligence has dramatically lowered the cost to create and serve ads, while big tech is eating a growing share of the marketing pie. Neil, is it too late for Madison Avenue to compete with Silicon Valley?
- [04:51]
Neal Freyman
We're going to find out. I mean, these companies are trying to refashion themselves more as digital technology companies than classic media agencies. They've been on a buying spree, acquiring smaller companies over the past decade that you would think has nothing to do with classic advertising. These are digital brokers, these are influencer marketing platforms. These are E commerce, E commerce companies that help you sell on Amazon. The entire industry has shifted under their feet and they think they need to build scale now to compete against AI which lowers costs and renders a lot of their services obsolete. You know, say I want to, I would typically go to a, an agency to whip up some ad creative for me. Now I can just use maybe an AI generator that Adobe makes and create something on my own for a fraction of the cost. Maybe I would go to an ad agency to help me plan my media buying. Where should I buy ads? Should I buy this billboard? Should I buy a TV commercial? Now I can just go to Facebook or Google and they'll all do it for me and have all of these personalized services where I can target people in a way that I never could before. So this is a rapidly changing industry and the big four, there's big four companies need are buying all of these other smaller companies to keep up.
- [06:04]
Toby Howell
So clearly these agencies are scrambling trying to say that no, we're at the cutting edge, we're at the forefront of the AI boom to try to attract those clients. But another aspect of this, that even though that they're parading around AI is the reason for this merger. I do think scale is very important in the advertising business because there's this thing called principle based media buying where agencies go around and just snap up all this ad inventory in advance, then sell that in packages back to companies. This is definitely a little controversial because they don't tell the companies what they initially bought, the media inventory, the price that they bought it at. But that is something that scale definitely lends itself to. If you can be the biggest player in the advertising industry, that means you can buy more of the ad inventory space. And that's where these are the companies bread and butter, which is media buying, which is managing media spend for big companies. So even though you hear this AI as the thing that they're saying, and this is why we're combining under the table, the scale is very helpful in just the good old fashioned meat and potatoes, the ad industry as well.
- [07:02]
Neal Freyman
And scale could be a problem. As I mentioned, these are the third and fourth largest advertising companies in the world. And combining they would be the number one eclipsing publicist group and wpp which are the are one and two right now. That could raise antitrust concerns. Yes, we are moving away from the Biden administration's very harsh antitrust stance. But the incoming Trump administration. Trump nominated Gail Slater, who's a pretty tough competition enforcer, to run the DOJ's antitrust division. So this combined company could get a look from regulators. She is known. Slater is known for going after big tech companies pretty hard. But we'll see. This is, you know, these companies want to fashion themselves as, as tech companies now. So we'll see what happens in the, in the antitrust realm.
- [07:48]
Toby Howell
China and in video are beefing over suspicions that the second biggest company in the world may have been skirting anti monopoly law in the country. China's state administration for Market Regulation said yesterday that it had opened a probe into the company specifically looking at a 2020 acquisition of an Israeli chip designer called Mellanox Technology. Beijing did give approval for the deal four years ago, but it came with certain conditions like in video was not allowed to discriminate against Chinese companies. Now of course, this comes at a time when trade tensions between the US And China are higher than ever. Washington has barred Nvidia from selling its most advanced semiconductors to China while also pressuring international companies like ASML to do the same with their chipmaking machines. China has fired back with export bans on key earth minerals used for semiconductor manufacturing. But in Video is its biggest target yet. In the tit for tat tech trade war, the market reaction to this move was relatively muted. Nvidia finished the day down about 3% yesterday, but still China accounts for about 15% of its revenue. So antitrust scrutiny there is certainly not ideal.
- [08:55]
Neal Freyman
No, no, this is a big deal. I mean the temperature in the trade war between the US and China is absolutely heated up just in the last two weeks. And China is not revealing what Nvidia may have violated over this agreement that they made a few years ago. But this is absolutely sending a message to the United States that China will respond and will flex its government powers to put American companies in video being perhaps the most prominent and the most important of any company in the world under the microscope. So we're seeing a rapid increase and rapid escalation in, in the supply chain warfare between the US and China. And right now both countries are just laying their chips on the table perhaps to pursue a grand bargain, a big deal coming up in the next few months. But this is a, this is a.
- [09:44]
Toby Howell
Big, it is confusing though if you are an investor in Nvidia, is this going to impact Nvidia's march towards being the biggest company in the world. And you can look at multiple data points that say yes it is or maybe no it isn't. Nvidia used to dominate China's AI chip market. They had a 90% market share before some of these curbs started being put on the books. However, now China has been telling Chinese companies to buy chips from domestic companies like Huawei being the main one there. China did account for about 15%, 12 to 15% of Nvidia's revenue in the last year, but that is down from 26% two years earlier. So clearly that position is sliding downward. So it is one of those things where again probably the moneymakers for Nvidia are going to be like the big tech companies based in the United States, like the metals, the Googles of the world. But China still has a significant slice of the revenue. So that is why you might see a little bit of apprehension around the stock in like the next few weeks.
- [10:41]
Neal Freyman
And Nvidia is being squeezed on both sides, not just in China, but in the United States. The United States has barred Nvidia from selling its most advanced chips to China which are probably the most expensive. And then at the same time, the US is also investigating Nvidia for antitrust concerns because no one makes the chips that it does as well as it does. So it has a 90% market share of this AI advanced AI chip market. So it is being investigated for whether it did, you know, did so. It acquired this dominance illegally. So Nvidia's is becoming one of the biggest political football balls in this. In this trade war between the United States and China. Google just unveiled a revolutionary new quantum computer. And let's just say you won't have any buffering issues watching Netflix on it. This quantum computer took just five minutes to solve a problem that take the best supercomputers around 10, septillion years. 10 with 30 zeros. In a blog post Google wrote this mind boggling number exceeds known timescales in physics and vastly exceeds the age of the universe. It leads credence to the notion that quantum computing occurs in many parallel universes. In line with the idea that we live in a multiverse. Okay. This breakthrough is made possible by a new chip. Google calls Willow which has cracked a three decade old problem keeping quantum computers from making it to the big time. Experts compared Google's technological milestone to the first man made nuclear chain reaction in 1942. It's that huge. You're probably rolling your eyes and thinking, come on Neil, I've heard this before. Quantum computing seems like They've been trying this forever and nothing really has come of it. And you know what? You are right. The concept of quantum computing dates back to the 1980s and has despite and despite billions and billions poured into the field by companies and governments, these insanely powerful computers have yet to offer any useful applications to get something done. Practically, you're better off with a TI89. But that could change thanks to Google's achievement. Toby, what was the key breakthrough here?
- [12:47]
Toby Howell
Well, I just want to take a step back first and explain what the heck the difference difference is between a quantum computer and a regular.
- [12:52]
Neal Freyman
I would very much appreciate that.
- [12:53]
Toby Howell
I'll put on my technology hat here. So traditional computer, like your laptop or the smartphone you have in your pocket, it uses binary bits. It stores zeros and ones in those silicon chips, performs calculation by processing those bits of information. The key to remember though, is each bit can only ever be a zero or a one. A quantum computer, on the other hand, very hard to wrap your mind around. They use something called quantum bits, AKA qubits. Qubits can hold a combination of ones and zeros. I think of it as Schrodinger's qubit. So one qubit can hold two values simultaneously, two qubits can hold four values, so on and so forth. As the number of qubits grows, the compute power grows exponentially alongside it. More qubits equals a more compute equals an infinitely more powerful computer. Now the problem, and you said that practically speaking, we haven't found any real uses for quantum computing. That's been true because one of the issues is that there are. As the amount of compute increases, the number of errors usually also increases with it. Google said that its machine, its Willow chip that it created, has surpassed the error correction threshold, which means that it allows one of these machines to reach its potential because errors aren't going up in exponential fashion at the same pace that quibbits are. So that has been something that scientists have been after for decades and it looks like they finally exceeded that.
- [14:17]
Neal Freyman
That was pretty impressive, Toby. Nice job. Yeah, that concept of, of, of something existing in two states of matter at once is called superposition. And definitely look up Schrodinger's cat, which kind of is the most famous example of something existing in two states at one. So say we figure this out. Google said that it reduced the amount of errors that quantum computing is able. Know it's able to handle these errors now and can maybe do these, these do these computations without, you know, many mistakes. What are some potential use cases for this down the line because companies have poured in billions of dollars. Intel, IBM, Google, they're betting on quantum computing to actually be able to be commercially viable one day. So one big use case that experts think could be used by quantum computing is drug discovery and drug design could crack encryption, speed up decision making in financial transactions, improve MA learning, even address climate change through forecasting and weather modeling. So there are do seem to be some ultimate, some ultimate applications. But I think even with Google's breakthrough they're saying like don't expect anything soon. We're not going about to open up our Mac book and it's going to be a quantum computer anytime soon.
- [15:28]
Toby Howell
You mentioned at the beginning of the segment that you can eventually watch Netflix on quantum computer. Can you imagine a world where you're just streaming in like I don't even know 4k 8k, 16k HD because we're all watching on quantum computers. Don't know if we'll ever get to that point but fun to think about. Up next, it ain't Neil's numbers yet, it's Toby's trends.
- [15:50]
Neal Freyman
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- [15:55]
Toby Howell
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- [16:09]
Neal Freyman
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- [16:22]
Toby Howell
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- [16:37]
Neal Freyman
Book now@virgin voyages.com or contact your travel advisor. Pop quiz Toby. What do brands like Aloe, Allbirds and Skims have in common?
- [16:47]
Toby Howell
For one thing, they're all top notch brands that sell directly to consumers.
- [16:51]
Neal Freyman
Bingo. But achieving big name success comes down to more than having a cool brand and brilliant marketing who's behind the scenes powering each and every one of their sales? Shopify.
- [17:00]
Toby Howell
Of course nobody does selling better than Shopify their home to the number one checkout on the planet.
- [17:06]
Neal Freyman
And we've got to mention their not so secret shop pay shop pay boost conversions up to 50%. That means fewer abandoned carts and higher rev numbers.
- [17:16]
Toby Howell
Shopify should be every business's One stop.
- [17:19]
Neal Freyman
Shop to growth, level up your biz and sign up for your $1 per month trial period at shopify.com Morning Brew All Lowercase that's shopify.com Morning Brew all lowercase.
- [17:35]
Toby Howell
If you've got long nails and a massage table laying around, boy, do I have the side hustle for you. Today's Toby's Trends is all about professional back scratchers. It's the hot new field for keratin blessed individuals who are charging over 100 bucks an hour for their services. They're not just targeting annoying inches in between your shoulder blades though. The Wall Street Journal talked to various scratchers who say their primary goal is to help people slip into blissful state of relaxation. Think candlelit rooms and the good kind of goosebumps. Some social media famous scratchers charge as much as 162 bucks for a one hour session. While long manicured nails, often filed to a sharp point, are the primary instrument for most scratchers. Some, like Julie Luther, who runs Soft Touch ASMR Spa in Pasadena, California, also introduce things like makeup brushes or rooster feathers to amp up your sensory experience. The goal is to trigger the release of the holy trinity of chemicals in your brain, endorphins, oxytocin and dopamine to leave clients feeling sleepy and satisfied. Neil, if you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours.
- [18:41]
Neal Freyman
I have never gotten a massage from a professional masseuse, but I would consider getting a back scratch because that sounds absolutely delightful. It's part of this growing ASMR economy. You have these ASMR spas opening up in Los Angeles and New York. There's one right down the road from us in Williamsburg that we'll definitely have to check out. The global wellness industry was worth over $6 trillion last year. This is part of that industry of people really caring about the way they feel in their bodies. So I am bullish on back scratching.
- [19:15]
Toby Howell
I am bullish too. There's this one company called the Scratcher Girls Spa in Miami. They actually go on tour across the country multiple times a year because a big part of this phenomenon is social media. You watch these videos, you can kind of imagine yourself being in that scenario. You know what having your back scratching feels like. So it's really led to these big accounts blowing up. And the Scratchers Girls Spas in Miami, they're going on a European tour next year because they're like people from all over the world watch our videos. I do think too that a part of it is not just the scratching experience, but some people whisper words of affirmation in their clients ears, saying like, you are safe. You, you tracing a scene on the client's back and narrating what that scene is. So it's definitely a full sensory experience. It's not just a massage from a professional masseuse. It is something far beyond that. And my back is tingling just thinking about it.
- [20:04]
Neal Freyman
And it feels like the only big overhead cost here is making sure your nails are good. Because this, some of these people have three inch nails that they have to keep perfect, you know, to be for, for optimal scratching. So that is just one of the considerations. If you have good nails, maybe grow them out to 3, 3 inches, keep them filed and then open up an ASMR spot. You could be raking in $160 for 50 minutes, which is one of the, which is what one of these people are charging. Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines from the news. Mondelez International is hot for more chocolate. The maker of Oreos is reportedly thinking about buying Hershey and a megadeal that would create the world's largest confectionary company. With sales of nearly $50 billion. Hershey owns more than 90 brands, including Reese's and KitKat. But it's had a rough year to skyrocket in cocoa prices and consumers pulling back on their buying. So shares have fallen 14% in the last three months. That means Mondelez, which owns Chips Ahoy, Ritz, Crackers and Sour Patch Kids, thinks it could snag Hershey at a bargain while boosting its chocolate portfolio. Toby, would this deal spark Almond Joy?
- [21:11]
Toby Howell
First of all, hate Almond Joy. So no, it wouldn't spark Almond Joy for me. But yeah, I do think that there is some potential here because yes, as you said, Hershey's had a little bit of a tough year. Her Hershey Trust owns about 80% of the voting power at the company and they have been slowly selling off a lot of its shares because they've said they want to diversify some of their holdings. So it does look like they are maybe open or amenable to a transaction like this. This would be the biggest merger of the year, actually surpassing Mars's agreement to buy Kalanova. Another big SNAC merger tie up. So if you're in the M and A space, you definitely like all this confectionary action that's going on.
- [21:49]
Neal Freyman
I'm just excited to see what could happen to Hershey Park. A little Sour Patch Kids ride there, we get some portfolio. But besides that, it does seem like chocolate companies are being hurt a lot. Cocoa prices have have more than doubled from the start of the year. And so these, these chocolate companies are maybe looking for a way out. But this is not the first time Mondelez has tried to buy Hershey's tried to do it for $23 billion in 2016. Hershey says. Hershey said no. Now we are eight years later. It's going to be a much higher price. So we'll see if the Hershey Trust is going to accept the deal this time.
- [22:28]
Toby Howell
OPEN I finally released Sora to the world yesterday. Its highly anticipated text to video AI tool as part of its 12 day Shipmas product release series. Chat, GPT plus and Pro subscribers in the US and a few other countries can now create videos up to 20 seconds long at 1080p resolution. Remember, this was the tool that went viral when OpenAI teased it a few months ago in February. That lets you generate videos from text prompts, animate static images, or remix existing videos. NEAL a goal of OpenAI is to advance multi modality, which is combining text, image and video into one big suite of AI models. And this is getting it one step closer to that goal.
- [23:08]
Neal Freyman
Yeah, and they're taking a lot of safety precautions with this release because it's the first time they're releasing it to the wild. And being able to create videos from AI just by typing in a sentence and create a video certainly has raised a lot of concerns. All of these videos will have visible modern watermarks and metadata that show that it was created by AI. You are not allowed. It's not, they're not allowing users to create any photos with or any videos with people now. So it's likely to just be animals and scenes. So it'll be interesting to see what happens with Sora in the meantime. Since it was first introduced and now it's released, a bunch of competitors have stepped in. There's Google, there's Runway, there's a company called Minimax, there's ones from China. So there's been a, you know, everyone was blown away by Sorbet. Now it's certainly not the only player in this field anymore. The stimmies could be coming back, at least for New Yorkers. Governor Kathy Hochul said yesterday that the state brought in more money than expected from sales taxes and plans to send that money back to New York residents in the form of direct payments. Hochul is calling the checks an inflation refund, and her stated goal is to top off the finances of New Yorkers struggling from price hikes over the past few years. If passed by the state legislature in the fall of 2025, New York could send $500 checks to families making up to $300,000 and $300 to individuals earning $150,000 or less. In total, $3 billion could be sent to 8.6 million New Yorkers. Toby, New York isn't the only state that's sent or plans to send surplus money back to residents. Is this endorsed by economists?
- [24:46]
Toby Howell
I mean, it's a little bit controversial because the question is always, are surplus funds better spent this way or that way? Is it better to just write checks directly to citizens or is it better to invest in improving services around the city? There is some pushback saying that one time tax rebates don't have a lot of benefit overall to the economy. They don't really influence incentives around working or they don't influence incentives around investing. They don't have a big long term effect. But if you are a maybe governor who is looking to get reelected, they do have a certain effect because people do like having money given to them supposedly for free. So you can read between the lines here and say like, hey, this comes after a tough election cycle for Democrats. Voters regularly cited the economy. They regularly cited inflation as a big pain point for them. So sending them a 300 or $500 check is a way to get on voter.
- [25:40]
Neal Freyman
I mean, I wouldn't turn it down. This is a playbook used by other states as well. California did the same thing in the name of inflation in 2022. And Alaska, right, has has this fund that since the 70s has sent checks to residents from surplus oil revenues. They, they make, they produce a lot of oil, they put it all into a fund and then every year they send it back back to residents. So this is a playbook that's been done before. You know, some people pointed out that if you're trying to combat inflation, spending, sending more money into the economy for people to spend is not exactly the best way to do that. So we'll see. The state legislature still has to approve it. And if it does, then those checks could be coming in the fall.
- [26:20]
Toby Howell
The nominations for the Golden Globe awards were announced yesterday with the precursor to the Oscars led by the Netflix commission musical Amelia Perez, which received 10 nominations. Following closely behind the Adrian Brody historical drama the Brutalists Snagged Seven Noms, all the Bear and Only. Murders in the Building also saw significant love. The awards ceremony will take place in January and will be hosted by comedian Nikki Glaser. And Neal might just be worth it to turn in for Glazer alone.
- [26:49]
Neal Freyman
She's hilarious. But I love the Golden Globe nomination list primarily because it gives incredible recommendations on what to watch. I thought I had watched watch a lot of movie this year, but apparently I had not because the Tom top film nominees, five of them I have. I've just never seen Emilia Perez, the Brutalist Conclave, a Nora, which people say is incredible. And the substance, I haven't seen any of those. I guess I've just been on the wicked challengers train. Those got four. Those did get some nominations. Dune Part two only got two.
- [27:17]
Toby Howell
I know there's been so much controversy around Dune because especially for the soundtrack because Hans Zimmer, who was my top artist on Spotify, by the way, since Hans Zimmer used so many of the same kind of song basis from the first Dune, the second Dune movie wasn't allowed to be nominated. It didn't meet certain thresholds for that. So there's been a little bit of uproar against that because yeah, if you watched Dune Part 2, the soundtrack was just obviously incredible, but apparently too similar to Dune Part one.
- [27:46]
Neal Freyman
All right, that is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Tuesday. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. And if this podcast scratches your back in all the right places, share it with someone else who's itching for a fun way to get news. I think Toby has a great recommendation for you today, Neil.
- [28:05]
Toby Howell
You already stole my thunder. I want you to share the podcast with someone who you'd want to test out the back scratching spas with, because what's a little scratchy scratch between two media listening friends? And speaking of sharing podcasts, check out the latest episode of the Brews Investing Focus show After Earnings, hosted by our good friend Ann Berry. She interviewed a Salesforce CEO, Marc Benioff, and they chatted all about the AI bubble, return to office policies, and if Mark is down to play ball with Elon Musk and Doge. Great episode. Make sure you give it a listen.
- [28:35]
Neal Freyman
Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Uchenwa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Menino is on audio hair makeup went down a quantum computing rabbit hole and we haven't heard from them since. Devin Emery is our Chief Content officer, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
- [28:54]
Toby Howell
Great show, Danielle. Let's run it back tomorrow.