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- [00:00]
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- [00:32]
Neal Freyman
Good Morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
- [00:34]
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
- [00:36]
Neal Freyman
Today, Target's channeling Fun 101 to turn around a miserable stretch.
- [00:40]
Toby Howell
Then McDonald's and Burger King are beefing over new beefy burgers. It's Wednesday, March 4th. Let's ride.
- [00:52]
Neal Freyman
Coming up this Sunday, Americans will spring our clocks an hour forward for daylight Savings time, knowing full well we'll have to switch them back come November and but in British Columbia they're switching the clocks on Sunday and then never changing them again. The Western Canadian Province home to Vancouver, announced it is adopting year round Daylight Saving Time, citing the need to reduce disruptions for families and provide an extra hour of daylight in the evenings. Premier David Abbey said that the people of British Columbia made it crystal clear that the clock switching wasn't working. In a 2019 report, 93% of participants supported Daylight Savings Time across the year. Here in the US Various bills have been floated to make Daylight Savings Time permanent, but they've gone nowhere. Apparently it doesn't have to be that way.
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Toby Howell
93% of people supported this, but scientists are not part of that 93%. They actually prefer not daylight savings. They prefer permanent standard time. And the American Academy of Sleep Medicine actually called for the abolition of Daylight saving times in 2020 because they are saying that it's less healthier for you, it increases traffic accidents, it increases risk of stroke and cardiovascular events because more sun in the morning and more darkness in the evening actually better reflects sleep cycles. So it is very fascinating though how everyone else is like, nah, I would actually much rather have my afternoons a little bit more sunny than have better sleep hygiene. Where do you fall in this divide? I feel like we've talked about this ad nauseam, but I just want to
- [02:17]
Neal Freyman
hear totally depends on if you're a morning person or an evening person. The evening people want it to be laid out as much as possible so they can do as much stuff in the in the evenings. But if you're a morning person you're up at 6 or 7 or 4 like us then I think you want to optimize for it being as early as possible in the mornings. But I understand that that is not the way most people feel.
- [02:37]
Toby Howell
It just feels dark whenever we're coming to work, leaving work, it's just dark all the time.
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Neal Freyman
Then again, daylight savings time is the best if you want to get as many rounds of golf and in a day as we do.
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Toby Howell
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- [02:56]
Neal Freyman
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- [03:06]
Toby Howell
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- [03:11]
Neal Freyman
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- [03:19]
Toby Howell
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- [03:28]
Neal Freyman
To learn more, head to bland AI/MBD. That's bland AI slash MBD markets for Red but not Deep Red yesterday as Wall street hung on every headline coming out of the Middle east, where a war has been ongoing since the US And Israel attacked Iran on Saturday. Yesterday brought escalating attacks on US Embassies and diplomatic targets, with Iran going after the US Consulate in Dubai and the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's capital earlier in the day. As you heard on Tuesday's nbd, stocks were down real bad, but pared those losses by the afternoon. Oil spiked as much as 8% but also came back down to earth, still climbing more than 4% on the day. Investors breathing a sigh of relief after President Trump made assurances around transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important maritime choke chokepoint that connects Gulf energy with the rest of the world. Trump, sensing he had to do something to calm soaring energy prices, said the US Would provide risk insurance to ships passing through the Gulf and the American military would escort tankers to ensure safe passage. On Monday, an Iranian commander threatened to set fire to any ship that tries to traverse the strait while while basically no ships are currently passing through at the moment. So big picture, where are we? From the past few days of trading, it appears that Wall street views the war as having mostly insignificant impacts on the economy, with some potential for serious damage should the Strait of Hormuz stay closed for much longer, sending an energy shock around the world? Goldman Sachs came out saying that inflation could go substantially higher if the war goes on for longer than expected. But Toby, I want to start not in the Middle east or the US but somewhere very far from both of those places. South Korea.
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Toby Howell
Yeah. South Korea had a rough one in the markets over the past few days. Really? The kospi, which is the kind of their flagship index, had its worst single day decline ever on Wednesday. The Korea exchange had to temporarily halt trading for it multiple times because some of their biggest stocks have been falling precipitously. SK Hynix, Samsung to names that have benefited very well from the AI trade are down double digits. And the reason why South Korea was hit so hard is one, they have very high single name concentration in the index. The two names, SK Hynix and Samsung, constitute almost 50% of the entire index. So two companies have a massive sway over it. And then also Korea is very acutely sensitive to oil price spikes. They are a very major oil importer. They have a manufacturing heavy economy that is very vulnerable when you see crude prices spike like this. So when you take into account the fact that there is an oil crisis seemingly far away in the Middle east, it still definitely trickles down to an economy like South Korea. And we saw it reflected in their market performance.
- [06:12]
Neal Freyman
Most of the oil that comes from the Gulf is going to Asia. It's not going to the United States. Still, we are seeing reactions here in the United States as well in the form of a gas price increase. The average price for a gallon of Gasoline jumped over 11 cents overnight yesterday to about $3.11. That is the largest single day increase since March 4, 2022, right after Russia invaded Ukraine. And this is what happens when oil prices go up. 60% of the price you pay at the pump reflects the price of crude oil. So almost instantaneously you see gas prices go up in reflection of higher oil prices. It does take weeks and months to eventually see all of that filtered through the system. But you're seeing an almost immediate reaction from what we' in the Middle east here at your local gas station.
- [07:00]
Toby Howell
We're also seeing some interesting things happen with safe haven assets throughout the market because we saw stocks, gold and Treasuries, all traditional safe haven assets, kind of falling simultaneously. But one thing is going up right now. That is the US dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has rallied one and a half percent so far this week of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg Only the dollar was a positive. And this was not something that a lot of people expected because we've been hearing all about the debasement trade and how the dollar is at threat of being the world's reserve currency. But right now is what is happening is traders are fearing that inflation could come back because energy prices are going up. That is going to make Treasuries less attractive. Plus the US is a net energy exporter while most economies are net importers. All of these things lead to asymmetry that benefit the dollar. So a surprising winner of this conflict has been the US Greenback.
- [07:57]
Neal Freyman
And one of the maybe surprising losers is luxury stocks. They are among the hardest hit sectors. On Tuesday, shares of lvmh, Kering, Burberry, just all the stuff that we can't afford to buy have been tanking this week. They're down all about 10%. And that's because the Middle east has been one of the main drivers of growth for luxury companies. China demand has been waning. The US demand has been waning. But one place where they can still sell their wares is the Middle East. And there's also something that investors like to say is the feel good factor. And when people feel good and are optimistic and are hyped about the future, that's when they go spend on luxury stocks. And so when there's a war going on, it's sort of has a more negative, outsized impact on these kind of companies.
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Toby Howell
And then finally one storyline to pay attention to. We were actually just scrolling through the New York Times is most read stories about the war and the top story right now is how the wealthy are fleeing the Middle east right now because private jet prices are just astronomically high right now. They're always astronomically high, but they've surged to roughly three times normal. If you want to catch a flight from Riyadh to Europe, that is $350,000 right now. So people are trying to get out. Dubai's airport is largely closed, so how else can you get out? Some people are driving to Oman and flying from the Muscat airport. Some people are driving to Riyadh from Dubai, which is a 10 hour drive alone and then you have to pay for the flight. So one thing to I don't know, keep an eye on is wealthy travelers are scrambling to get out of this region. Moving on, Target reported earnings yesterday and it was unlucky number 13 for the struggling retailer. Its comparable sales fell 2 1/2% in the quarter, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of weak or falling Sales net profit was down 5.1%. Number of shoppers down as well. Everything was falling. Everything except its stock, which rose nearly 7%. Why? Because new CEO Michael Fidelke has a plan. Fidelke took over on February 1st after starting his career as a Target intern back in 2003, and now he's rolling out a $6 billion plan to make Target competitive again. He's allocating 2 billion towards revamping stores, including sprucing up some locations which haven't seen a facelift in 15 years. The in store experience will be guided by the framework of Greet Help thank, which is the LinkedIn version of eat Pray Love. Then he wants to do a category by category overhaul, from home goods to apparel to grocery. For instance, by June, Fidelke hopes to turn over 75% of Target's home decor lines to recapture some of that knickknack magic that it used to channel. In short, Target doesn't want to be known as an everything store anymore, according to Fidelity, but is instead betting on busy families to drive its turnaround. Neal, sort of an odd framing there, but is he on Target?
- [10:50]
Neal Freyman
Well, we won't know for a while. I mean these things take years. It even took a season or two for Mike Frabel to bring the Patriots back to the Super Bowl. Kurt Signetti took three years to take the Hoosiers to the national championship. We have more evidence. There's more stories in the business world of the new Starbucks CEO taking some time to implement their changes. And only one, two, three, four years down the line do you start to see improvements if the plan is working. I think it is smart by Fidelke to say we are not the everything store and focus on what Target has typically done best. He's rolling out this thing called Fun 101, which focuses on trends in sports, gadgets, games and pop culture. And yes, they are targeting this, this population. I was going to say niche population, but it's a large population of busy moms and dads and really leaning into baby care by rolling out these things like baby concierges to help people find stuff for their little kids. So it seems like a smart play overall. But I think the number one thing to pay attention to is just the money. They are spending money to make money. They are going to spend $2 billion this year on store improvements and hiring more staff in order to make these stores some a place that you want to go back into again.
- [11:57]
Toby Howell
But they do recognize that hey, we have missed the mark in almost every category lately, specifically home goods because that is Where Target had a lot of its magic over rivals like Walmart. And right now, their new SVP of home, who joined last fall, said our home business has not delivered to its potential point, Blake. So they want to remodel everything they want. New products coming through. This is also happening in the apparel section as well. They're trying to have trendy clothing hit shelves faster. They're going very heavily into the western look right now with cowboy hats and fringe jackets and embroidered jeans. So if you've been low on embroidered jeans lately, Neal, you can go to Target to pick those up. They are expanding. It's a baby division. And then grocery has been a surprising bright spot amid amid the sea of darkness. It had 8% average annual sales growth since 2019. Half of target shoppers are already going to their stores to shop for groceries. So I think they're going to lean into that more private label. This playbook has been run by others like McDonald's or not McDonald's by Walmart before. So I think they're just saying, hey, why don't we just do the thing that we know works and try to get people to shop for groceries at Target.
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Neal Freyman
I am not low on Western. I am low on western wear, but I'm not low on graphic tees from Target because I think I bought their entire selection production when I was in junior in high school, and it's still somewhere around my house. All right, moving on. Yesterday marked 100 days until the start of the World Cup. But in the lead up to the world's biggest sporting event, the competition on the pitch is the last thing people are talking about. Let's get this part out of the way first. The upcoming World cup hosted in the U.S. mexico and Canada, is guaranteed to break all kinds of records in terms of viewership, attendance, and revenue. FIFA president Gianni Infantino, ever the hype man, predicted it will be, quote, the greatest event that humanity, mankind has ever seen or will ever see. Which maybe doesn't sound so hyperbolic when estimates show that 6 billion people, about 3/4 of the world's population, will tune in in some form. But with outsized interest comes outsized controversy. While the World cup is supposed to be an event that brings the world together, it's arriving at a time of significant geopolitical unrest. President Trump, the winner of the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize, is at war with Iran, which is slated to play in the tournament on American. So in Mexico, cartel violence near Guadalajara, a host city, has officials stressing it's safe to a worried public. Meanwhile, domestic Divisions in the United States are holding up necessary funding for World cup venues which are about to embark on the biggest homeland security operation the country has seen in decades. Toby, I think I could digest all this a lot better if the US team was any good.
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Toby Howell
Save us Wes and McKinney. Let's start with just the geopolitical turmoil. Iran not only is at war with the US but it's also attacked many other World cup participants. Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, these are all countries that are wrapped up in this conflict, but are also playing in the World Cup. FIFA tries to stay politically neutral. Now, you might say, have they done a great job of that lately, giving a made up peace prize to President Donald Trump? Maybe not. But they're in a very difficult position right now. So there's a lot of open questions on this front. Could some of Iran's games be moved to Canada or Mexico if they play in the tournament at all? If Iran does drop out, then who comes in and it takes their spot? There's a whole security threat associated with Iranian games at this point as well. So just a cloud hanging over this tournament that didn't need another, you know, controversy to deal with.
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Neal Freyman
And another controversy besides the geopolitical stuff is what's happening here at venues in the United States that are supposed to host these World cup games. There are 11 or 12 of them. They are waiting for $625 million worth of security funding that was doled out in the one big beautif bill act last summer. They haven't seen a penny of it and they say we absolutely need this. The reason they're not getting it is because, remember, there's a partial government shutdown still occurring and this, this money has not been doled out. The the host of the Miami committee said within the next 30 days is the drop dead date for receiving the funding or else they're going to have to start to cancel some of those fan fest or other events that are happening around the game. He said it would be catastrophic for our planning and coordination for them to not get this money. So they are pleading with the US government to dole out the $625 million. And meanwhile something's happening in Foxborough, Massachusetts, where, where the Gillette Stadium is that is straight out of Veep or Parks and Rec. The local select committee, they're just helmed by regular, regular Boston dudes is holding up, game is holding up, handing out a license for FIFA to play in its stadium because they say they want. They are on the hook for it. $8 million in security funding and they say, we're not paying it, we're just here in Foxborough. Like we allow the Patriots to play. But you didn't come to us and ask for this money. So we are holding up giving you the license. You're not able to play unless someone comes through with $8 million in funding. So you have these local Foxborough guys going against FIFA, over $8 million in
- [16:53]
Toby Howell
funding, Fox holding FIFA hostage right now. It sounds like a horrible, you know, Ben Affleck movie coming down the pipeline. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back and talk about burgers right after this. Cyber attackers these days don't need exploits. They'll just use your allowed tools against you.
- [17:12]
Neal Freyman
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- [17:21]
Toby Howell
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- [17:27]
Neal Freyman
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- [17:39]
Toby Howell
Learn more at threatlocker.com/morning brew daily that's threatlocker.com/morning Brew Daily
- [17:50]
Neal Freyman
Now a word from today's sponsor, Northwestern Mutual. What's on your mind, Toby?
- [17:54]
Toby Howell
Why don't penguins move somewhere warmer?
- [17:58]
Neal Freyman
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- [18:08]
Toby Howell
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- [18:18]
Neal Freyman
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- [18:32]
Toby Howell
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- [18:34]
Neal Freyman
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- [18:41]
Toby Howell
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- [18:52]
Neal Freyman
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- [18:58]
Toby Howell
Try Whoop on for size@join.whoop.com Brew Daily that's join.whoop.com Brew Daily McDonald's has a new burger out, though you might have already known that given a recent viral video posted by its CEO. The Big Arch hit menus yesterday and it is big. Two quarter pound patties, three slices of white cheddar, crispy onions, a new special sauce all sandwiched between a sesame and poppy seed bun. McDonald's CEO Chris Kopinski tried tried to hype people up for the beefy boy with a video posted to his Instagram, but got universally dragged for calling the burger a product in taking what was in his estimation a big bite, but what was determined by literally everyone else to be a comically small nibble. Tik tok recreations of the video have racked up over 20 million views, mostly making fun of him for looking deeply uncomfortable eating his own company's burger. Enter Burger King. Their president, Tom Curtis posted a video on TikTok where he took an actually enormous bite of a Whopper and posted it with the caption thought we'd replay this to help promote their newly updated Whopper recipe. The Tit for Tat exchange is a good window into what's happening across the entire fast food industry. Right now. Every major chain is in an arms race to build the biggest, beefiest, most protein packed burger they can, partly because beef is really expensive right now and they need to justify charging you more for it, and partly because after years of raising prices, chains are trying to give you more beef for your buck. Neil the big burger wars are here and I am freaking hungry.
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Neal Freyman
Toby I haven't seen someone bullied online like this since you were posting a lot on Twitter. This CEO made two preventable mistakes that opened him up to a lot of bullying and jokes, which is taking a small bite and calling it the product. Something he can't change though, is that he just kind of looks a little dopey overall. But it's because he's a CEO. He's not competitive eating champion. But I think the lesson is don't have your CEO get on camera to eat a burger unless he's going to scarf it down like Joey Chestnut.
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Toby Howell
Right now we are in a protein arms race in the basically every industry but especially fast food. Because I think what fast food execs have figured out that protein has become shorthand for more value and more satisfaction. So if you do a bigger burger, more beef, more cheese, more everything, then you seem like you're providing more value to customers. Wendy's has a limited time Cheesy bacon cheeseburger, Carl's Jr. And Hardee's have so many burgers that I don't even want to name because I feel like I'm burning calories just talking about them. Meanwhile though, you do have some trying to go against zigging while others are zagging. Shake Shack has launched a good fit menu with lettuce wraps but still high protein options. So the main through line here is that we want more beef, we want more protein because it feels like you get more bang for your buck when that is on the menu.
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Neal Freyman
Well, Shake Shack is going the GLP1 route and catering to people who are on those weight loss drugs. This is not a GLP1 play. Let's just roll the tape with this particular Big Arch Burger. 1020 calories, 53 grams of protein. At a South Florida location where Axios tried it, the sandwich weighed 12.7 ounces. It cost more than $8. In comparison, a Big Mac weighs 7.8 ounces, costs a little under $6, and a double quarter pounder with cheese is 740 calories, weighs 10.1 ounces. So this is a huge burger. And the context is over the past few years, there has been a price war Among Burger King, McDonald's, pretty much every fast food company because people are balking at their high prices that they raised in the wake of COVID Now, they can't cut prices forever because they have to protect their margins. So what they're doing here is leaning into premier premiumization and trying to say, yeah, we're going to sell you a $9 burger, but you may not have to eat anything for the rest of the day because it's so big.
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Toby Howell
I do want to take a trip back to 1996 though, because McDonald's is sort of repeating history here. They rolled out the Arch Deluxe back then and they made it a big splash. They spent $200 million on an ad campaign for this. But the issue was most of the ingredients overlapped with the Big Mac and a Quarter Pounder with cheese. So here they were saying that, hey, we have this Big Deluxe new burger, but it's more expensive version of the burgers we already have on their menu. So. So I do wonder if they're going to cannibalize some of their other burger sales. Is this differentiated enough? And I do think the bun goes a long way and do this because it has seeds on it, that is, or poppy seeds as well. And it just looks different than a Big Mac. It looks different than a Quarter Pounder. So similar, similar story to the the plan that they kind of boofed 30 years ago. Maybe the big arts can do what the Arch Deluxe could not.
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Neal Freyman
At least we got the memes. I mean the two burger CEOs eating their burger and they got burger were making great jokes. The burger mogging was very, very high.
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Toby Howell
Now let's bring to the finish with some final headlines. Sam Altman has some regrets. Yesterday, during a company all hands, the head of OpenAI told employees that he wished he hadn't announced a deal with the Pentagon so quickly, according to a Wall Street Journal report. This comes after a spat between the Department of Defense and anthropic that saw OpenAI's chief rival designated a supply chain risk. Altman swooped in mere hours after, and though he doesn't regret signing a deal, he told staff that it looked opportunistic and sloppy. Though the company has since amended its contract to include barring domestic surveillance of US Nationals. He went on to say during the all hands that it had been an unpleasant few days. To try so hard to do the right thing and get so absolutely personally crushed for it is really painful. And it seems he's aware that the Rust job may have tarnished his company's brand. I think this was an example of a complex but the right decision with extremely difficult brand consequences and very negative PR for us in the short term, altman said. Neil it looks like Altman knows that AI users are not looking kindly upon this deal.
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Neal Freyman
Yeah, he's absolutely right. There is clear evidence that users are defecting from Chat CBT to Claude by anthropic US app. Uninstalls of ChatGPT's mobile app jumped nearly 300% day over day on Saturday, according to Sensor Tower. Now the actual the typical day over day uninstall rate is 9%. So 9% versus 295%. That is a huge difference. And then meanwhile, US downloads for Claude jumped by 37% day over day on Friday, which was the day this deal was made, and 51% on Saturday. Meanwhile, Cloud leapfrog ChatGPT to be the number one app on the App Store. So these are two companies, two bitter rivals going in opposite directions and the
- [25:39]
Toby Howell
direction Anthropic is going is literally to the moon. A new recent report found that anthropological on Track to surpass $19 billion in revenue, up from $14 billion several weeks ago. When you're measuring $5 billion in the span of weeks, that is a company that is firing on all cylinders right now. Back In January of 2025 the annualized revenue for Anthropic was $1 billion. Now it's pushing $20 billion. One of the fastest growing software stocks are not, not even a stock yet software companies ever. It is crushing it right now.
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Neal Freyman
It's amazing. I mean, just go back at any point over the last six months, 12 months, we pro different winner of the AI wars. If you talked, if we probably took a snippet of this show, 12 months ago, we would have said OpenAI is the leader in the field. Six months ago maybe would have said Google and Gemini. And now we're saying that is anthropic. So these things move so fast. All right. Lufthansa is making a tweak to its carry on policies to make traveling a bit easier for one niche community, professional musicians. Starting on Sunday, the German airlines said it would be applying a more generous rule around small instruments like violins and trumpets that can be taken on planes. The change is the result of a months long campaign by one concert violinist, Carolyn Widman, who late last year was told at the Helsinki airport that her violin case was too big to be taken on board. The problem? Her violin is basically priceless, having been crafted in Italy in 1782. She ended up taking the violin out of the case and wrapping it in her sweater for the plane ride, describing it as having a Van Gogh painting in your hands. After her frustrating flight flight, she raised awareness around the instrument issue by pestering airline execs with letters and sharing her progress on social media. Her insistence seemed to strike a chord with other musicians who face similar problems and ultimately Lufthansa relented.
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Toby Howell
I get scared when I take my AirPods out on a plane because I might lose them. Imagine if you had a multimillion dollar delicate instrument. I was diving into the TSA's policy on things like this because this was kind of a European story. Brass instruments must go in checked bags. You can't bring those on because I think they could be potentially used as a weapon. Violins, drumsticks and guitars can be carry ons only after hand inspections though. So it really depends on what part of the band you're in and whether you can bring your instruments on board with you or not.
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Neal Freyman
A trombone is a weapon, but drumsticks are not.
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Toby Howell
I know. Well, I guess that's a wood is a little less dangerous than metal. But yeah, it is interesting. I do feel for the airlines in this instance because they were basically saying we can't do one off exceptions for every single passenger. It is hard to do a blanket policy because maybe my violin that I played in middle school is not quite as valuable. As her violin was. So I do feel for them when they try to do blanket policies like,
- [28:23]
Neal Freyman
yeah, I never got good enough at cello to carry it on a plane. Okay, that is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Wednesday. If you'd like to reach us, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom or DM us on Instagram at me Daily show let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our supervising producer. Raymond Liu is our senior producer. Our producer is Olivia Graham, and our associate producer is Olivia Lake. Hair makeup took too big of a bite of the big arch and is laid up. Devin Emery is our president, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
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Toby Howell
Great show, Danielle. Let's run it back tomorrow.