Morning Brew Daily
Episode: A New Southwest Air Arrives & US Dollar Dips to 4-Yr Low
Date: January 30, 2026
Hosts: Neal Freyman & Toby Howell
Episode Overview
This episode of Morning Brew Daily dives into a whirlwind of business headlines: the rumored nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair and ensuing market response, Apple's surprising blowout earnings and stealthy AI move, Amazon's record-breaking investment in the "Melania" documentary, seismic changes to Southwest Airlines’ iconic business model, and the US dollar’s dramatic slide to a four-year low. The hosts round out the week with their “Stock of the Week/Dog of the Week,” a looming government shutdown, and a rare moment of good news in US life expectancy.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Fed Chair Shakeup: Kevin Warsh as Trump’s Pick
(00:25 – 01:54)
- President Trump is set to announce Kevin Warsh as his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair.
- Warsh is known for historic hawkishness on inflation, but recently called for lower rates—a shift that may have secured Trump’s support.
- Market reaction: stocks fell, treasury yields and the dollar rose.
- Uncertainty swirls: is Warsh’s policy stance driven by data or politics?
- Quote:
- Toby Howell [01:29]: “If you change your tune after many years of being hawkish on monetary policy to suddenly being dovish and much more amenable to rate cuts, then you're saying, what do you actually stand for, dude?”
2. Apple’s Record-Breaking Quarter & Move into AI
(02:25 – 06:01)
- Apple posts its biggest sales jump in four years:
- Revenue: $143 billion, up 16% year-over-year.
- Net income: $42 billion—the most ever in a public company quarter.
- iPhone 17 drives a 23% revenue surge, bucking the trend as competitors pour resources into AI.
- Before earnings, Apple quietly acquires Q.AI, a startup specializing in whispered speech and audio-in-noise solutions, for $2 billion.
- This hints at possible new AirPods or wearable tech leveraging advanced voice AI.
- Apple’s product growth (16%) even topped its service growth (14%)—defying analyst projections.
- Quotes:
- Neal Freyman [03:56]: “Tim Cook just bought himself a lot of time... Siri is still a debacle. And so the pressure was on Tim Cook to deliver a very solid quarter and he did.”
- Mark Gurman via Toby Howell [04:51]: “The iPhone absolutely crushed it. The new designs worked, the new colors work. But this shouldn't change the overall need to have a reckoning to ensure they are a key part of future in AI hardware, software and services.”
3. Big Tech Earnings Recap: Winners and Losers
(06:13 – 07:34)
- Meta emerges as the big winner:
- Shares surge 10% on a robust ad business, with less investor anxiety over AI spend.
- Microsoft and software sector rocked:
- Microsoft shares plummet 10%—its biggest drop since March 2020 and a historic $357 billion market cap loss.
- 73% of public software companies fell, including Atlassian (-12.2%) and ServiceNow (-12%).
- Apple’s minimal AI spend now seems wise versus rivals hemorrhaging cash.
4. Amazon’s Lavish $75 Million “Melania” Bet
(07:34 – 11:35)
- Amazon spends $40 million for rights and another $35 million to market "Melania", a documentary chronicling Melania Trump ahead of the second inauguration.
- Unprecedented for a documentary—Amazon’s biggest single-film spend.
- Critics question whether this is a genuine bet on consumer interest or political PR to curry White House favor.
- Opening weekend projections: just $2–5 million at the box office.
- The documentary breaks tradition; First Ladies usually tell their stories post-White House, mainly via books.
- Brett Ratner, a director previously accused of sexual misconduct, helms the film—sparking further controversy.
- Debate over the film’s documentary status, given Melania’s own creative control and producer credits.
- Only five documentaries have ever grossed as much as Amazon paid for Melania (“Fahrenheit 9/11,” “March of the Penguins,” several music docs).
- Quotes:
- Neal Freyman [09:54]: “Melania herself is pocketing $30 million from Amazon's purchase of the rights.”
- Toby Howell [08:43]: “What is the role of the first lady in modern society? All those questions are being brought up because Amazon is just spending so much money on this thing.”
5. Southwest Airlines’ Radical Overhaul
(11:35 – 14:34)
- Southwest ditches its egalitarian open-seating and free-checked-bags policy.
- After years of lagging profits (just $512 million in 2025 vs Delta’s $4 billion), the airline pivots to drive profit and competitiveness.
- Stock soars 19%—largest jump since 1978.
- CEO Bob Jordan forecasts quadrupled earnings and industry-topping margins for 2026.
- Critics heap skepticism:
- Aviation analyst Gary Left notes the irony in Southwest abandoning its legacy for incremental upgrades, without adding amenities like seatback screens or lounges.
- Neal observes: Delta and United—those with all the frills—are thriving, not companies making “modest” upgrades.
- Internal debate: is the customer’s top priority frills or reliability?
- Southwest boasts the lowest cancellation rate among US airlines.
- Quotes:
- Neal Freyman [12:36]: “You would not expect a strategy of taking the most financially successful airline in history… discarding everything unique…and copying financial laggards...to a recipe for success.”
6. Stock of the Week & Dog of the Week
(17:01 – 21:15)
- Stock of the Week: Zoom
- Zoom’s stock jumps 18% as analysts realize it quietly invested about $50 million in Anthropic (the red-hot AI company) in 2023.
- If Anthropic’s $350 billion valuation holds, Zoom’s stake could be worth up to $4 billion—a 78x return.
- Notably, other giants like Amazon, Google, and even FTX invested even earlier and at massive scale.
- Toby Howell [18:24]: “It's never actually a good sign if the biggest thing that makes your stock pop is the fact that you invested in another company. But I think Zoom will take any w that they can at this point.”
- Dog of the Week: US Dollar
- The dollar slides to its lowest point in four years, down nearly 10% in 2026.
- A mixed bag for global trade dynamics; trouble for Americans traveling abroad.
- The slide reflects global markets regaining confidence—and concerns about US economic policy and political instability.
- Quote:
- Neal Freyman [21:15]: “The dollar is the dollar. Strength is tied to American exceptionalism… and it is actually in freefall right now.”
7. US Dollar Slide & Geopolitical Fallout
(20:15 – 23:27)
- Trump administration appears indifferent to the dollar’s slide; Treasury scrambles to reassure markets.
- Analysts fear a gradual erosion (“like termites”) rather than an immediate collapse.
- Reserve currency status no longer feels unshakeable amid global shocks and US policy unpredictability.
- Quote:
- Toby Howell [22:17]: “Like termites eating away at a house’s woodwork, Trump's dysfunctional policies are eating away at its support and rendering the US currency acutely vulnerable to future shocks.”
8. Government Shutdown Looms (23:27 – 25:13)
- Bipartisan deal in Congress could avert a government shutdown, but drama persists over Homeland Security funding, especially after a controversial incident involving ICE.
- Shutdown risk impacts tax season: IRS pledges to maintain 21-day refund window, but uncertainty reigns.
- Trump’s promised tax refunds have election season weight.
9. Upbeat News: US Life Expectancy Surges
(25:13 – 26:37)
- US life expectancy hits a record 79 years—up more than half a year from 2023.
- Key drivers: big drops in COVID-19 and drug overdose deaths.
- Synthetic opioid deaths (mainly fentanyl) fall dramatically, though US still trails peers.
- Gender gap: women live longer (81.4 years) but men (76.5 years) gained more in the past year.
- Quotes:
- Neal Freyman [25:13]: “Covid was the third leading cause of death in the US. Deaths, now it's number 15.”
- Toby Howell [26:06]: “So spend those extra four years wisely. But we're coming, ladies, like we're coming in your rear view mirror.”
Notable Moments & Quotes (with Timestamps)
- Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair discussion:
- “What do you actually stand for, dude?” — Toby Howell [01:29]
- Apple’s cautious but lucrative stance on AI:
- “Tim Cook just bought himself a lot of time.” — Neal Freyman [03:56]
- Amazon’s Melania doc buy sparks controversy:
- “Melania herself is pocketing $30 million from Amazon's purchase…” — Neal Freyman [09:54]
- Southwest’s identity crisis:
- “Discarding everything unique about their business model and copying financial laggards…” — Gary Left via Neal Freyman [12:36]
- US Dollar decline, likened to termites weakening a house:
- “Trump's dysfunctional policies are eating away at its support and rendering the US currency acutely vulnerable to future shocks.” — Financial Times citation via Toby Howell [22:17]
- US Life Expectancy rebounds:
- “Covid was the third leading cause of death in the US. Deaths, now it's number 15.” — Neal Freyman [25:13]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Fed Chair Announcement & Market Reaction: 00:25–01:54
- Apple Earnings & Q.AI Acquisition: 02:25–06:01
- Big Tech Recap: 06:13–07:34
- Amazon’s “Melania” Doc Deep Dive: 07:34–11:35
- Southwest’s Seating Overhaul: 11:35–14:34
- Stock/Dog of the Week: 17:01–21:15
- US Dollar/Early Collapse Warnings: 20:15–23:27
- Government Shutdown Update: 23:27–25:13
- US Life Expectancy Good News: 25:13–26:37
Tone & Style
The episode is breezy, witty, and conversational, peppered with banter and lightly irreverent takes. The hosts balance sharp business analysis with playful ribbing, consistently translating complex economic news into lively, accessible segments.
Useful for:
Anyone needing a fast yet thorough digest on the latest in business, economic policy, corporate intrigue, and the interplay of politics and markets—without having to slog through dry headlines or sift through adverts.