Toby Howell (2:28)

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Neal Freyman (2:40)

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Toby Howell (2:48)

Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free $250 credit for the next one. Just go to LinkedIn.com/MBD. That's LinkedIn.com/MBD. Terms and conditions may apply if you're considering traveling via planes, trains or automobiles this week, maybe opt for the latter two for a third straight day, US Air traffic controller shortages brought on by the federal government shutdown list led to some delays at major hubs D.C. newark, O' Hare and Nashville airports have been facing the most delays, so apologies of any bachelorette plans have been disrupted. In Philadelphia, which is not a great bachelorette destination, 50 out of 225 TSA officers reportedly showed up late or not at all on Monday. But even that was better than California's Hollywood Burbank Airport, which went dark for several hours on Monday morning when no controllers were available, a situation known as ATC0. Remember, air traffic controllers are considered essential workers and are still expected to show up to work even though they aren't being paid while the shutdown continues. But should they start to call in sick in greater numbers, airline delays would pile up, exerting more and more pressure on lawmakers as one of the most visible and immediately felt consequences of a government shutdown. When airports grind to a halt, political pressure gets dialed up to 11. Look no further than the 20182019 shutdown, when a coordinated controller and TSA sick outs helped break the standoff. Neil, the FAA was already dealing with air traffic controller shortages before the shutdown. Any further absences could be too much.

Neal Freyman (4:22)

For it to handle and it does not take a lot to send the aviation system to its knees. Back in 2019, during that shutdown, there were just 10 air traffic controllers who called out sec. During that coordinated sick out that you mentioned, six from Northern Virginia and four Florida. And that small work stoppage was enough to cause delays at several hubs and shut down travel completely for several hours at LaGuardia Airport in New York. You know what? The shutdown ended later that day. So it does not take a lot of these sick outs from air traffic controllers. Like you said, there's already a huge shortage. About 77% of key air traffic control facilities are already understaffed. That's According to a 2024 DOT Inspector General report so the longer this goes on, the more stickouts we may see because these guys and gals are not taking, are not getting a paycheck. And when that comes, they're probably going to say, well, I need to feed my family. And you heard Sean Duffy, the Secretary of Transportation, say we're already seeing air traffic controllers starting to take second jobs like working for Uber and other things to actually pay themselves and feed their families during these times.

Toby Howell (5:27)

Yeah, air travel is just a massive pressure point in the entire American political and commercial apparatus. Controllers are actually prohibited for, strike, for, from striking precisely because it's such an essential part of just the American infrastructure. Yet they here they are being told to keep the system going even though they are not being paid. So they are doing required labor, but they are doing unpaid labor at the same time. So it makes it such a uniquely volatile industry during a shutdown. So it is just putting an immense strain on a lot of people as well. These people, I mean, we've joked about 996 working nine from 9am to 9pm Six days a week. That's basically what air traffic controllers are already doing. They're working these very long shifts six days a week to cover up from the lack of controllers in the pipeline. There's not many young people who are entering this industry. There's not a lot of trainees that are entering. So right now the system was already strained even more so. Right.

Neal Freyman (6:22)

And what are the air traffic controller organizations saying? Like, what are they saying from their side about what's going on? Well, the organization that represents more than 20,000 air traffic controllers, the National Air Traffic Controllers association, said that its members are already working so much, they're already under strain 10 hours a day, six days a week. And so they urge the federal government, without pointing any particular fingers, to bring a shutdown to a close so that they can continue doing this work that they're already under a lot of pressure to do. But they also added that they formally discourage these sick out, saying that it's against their policy and also illegal to call in sick when you are not. So they kind of try to play at both sides saying we need to bring this shutdown to an end so we can do our jobs and actually get paid for it, while also doing, not condoning what's going on.

Toby Howell (7:08)

Also, the government shutdown is now rippling beyond just air travel. In as it's entering its second week, more than 250,000 federal employees have missed their scheduled paychecks. If it extends into a third week, that number could rise above 2 million federal employees. So when you start to talk about the economy being impacted, that's when government shutdowns become especially vulnerable or damaging because 2 million people not getting their paycheck, that affects consumer spending, that will knock on gdp. All these, you know, big headline numbers that we've kind of hinted at happening if the shutdown continues. That will happen as it grows longer and longer because of just the way that paychecks are doled out in the government. They're not all doled out on the first Friday of every month. It's kind of multiple payroll providers in multiple industries are spreading out those paychecks. Third week, though, is when things really start to escalate.

Neal Freyman (7:58)

Moving on, how about this milestone? Renewable energy became the world's leading source of electricity in the first half of the year, overtaking coal for the first time in history. According to a report from the think tank Ember, new solar and wind capacity was enough to meet growing electricity demand around the globe, which even led to a dip in coal and gas use. But clean energy is doing better in some parts of the world than others. China is leading the charge, adding more solar and wind capacity than all other countries combined. Other developing countries like India, Pakistan, and African nations are also beefing up their renewable bona fides and pushing down coal generation in the process. The same can't be said for Europe and the United States. Here, the demand for electricity is growing faster than the clean energy to meet it, While in Europe, bad spells for hydropower and wind have also increased dependencies on fossil fuels. So, Toby, it's a split screen for renewables across the world, but taken in aggregate, this seems like a turning point for the global energy system.

Toby Howell (8:58)

Yeah, it really is a big headline number here. Renewables overtaking coal. That is a big deal in. It does look like a lot of the momentum is coming from emerging markets, though, who are actually building renewables out of necessity. They need more power to, you know, build out the infrastructure in their countries. The easiest and cheapest way to do that now is solar, is sometimes wind, but mostly mostly solar, because, you know, coal power plants are actually more expensive to operate than a solar farm in many parts of the world, especially as China has kind of flooded the world with very, very cheap inputs for, you know, to build solar infrastructure. And it is interesting, too, that we're seeing some geographical nuances between what type of renewable energy certain countries are building. There's almost a sun belt countries like, you know, India, in Africa, that are mostly receiving a lot of direct sunlight. And so they are building solar and then there's wind belt economies, which are actually mostly Europe and North America and, and Sunbelt nations are doing a lot better than wind belt nations are right now because solar is cheaper to build than wind.

Neal Freyman (10:04)

Yeah. There's an astonishing stat that solar has seen prices fall 99.9% since 1975. They're so cheap that a lot of developing economies with not a lot of money to spend can start to do that. Meanwhile, wind costs have just fallen by a third over the last decade. We've seen a lot of problems with the offshore wind industry here in the United States and also in Europe. The infrastructure costs are just so much higher than in solar. So you are seeing those geographical discrepancies between these Sunbelt countries that are deploying a lot more solar capacity compared to the more northern ones that are struggling a little bit with wind. But I think the bottom line here is that China is just leapfrogging the rest of the world. They are adding capacity at a rate that we haven't seen before and they're dwarfing pretty much every other country when it comes to not only putting inputting renewable energy in their own country, but exporting it across the world. Renewable energy exports topped $20 billion from China to the rest of the world just in August alone.

Toby Howell (11:04)

And what the heck is happening in the us? It's ironic that this milestone was achieved right when the International Energy Agency slashed U.S. renewable growth forecasts by nearly 50 by 50% over the next five years. Because we've seen some of these Biden era clean energy incentives be rolled back under the the Trump administration. So as the rest of the world is accelerating towards this renewable future, the US is kind of taking its foot off the gas right now. So it is ironic that we are seeing these crazy headlines, renewables outpacing coal. At the same time, the US is kind of falling behind. Moving on. Game one of this year's WNBA Finals was the Most watched since 1997, the league's first year in existence. Four time MVP Asia Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces are up three on the Phoenix Mercury looking for their third title in four years. And even with Caitlin Clark sidelined with an injury for most of the year, ratings, attendance and interest were all up. So why are the vibes in the league so off right now? Nafisa Collier, an all star on the Minnesota Links, made headlines earlier this month when she said the WNBA has the worst leadership in the world. Her criticism was aimed directly at Commissioner Kathy Engelbert, who she claimed privately told her that Caitlin Clark should be grateful for the WNBA's platform, something Angelbert denied saying. While friction between player and commissioners is nothing new in pro sports, it's created a messy situation during a time that Clark declared straight up the most important moment in the league's history. Clark is referring to the surge in eyeballs and interest that is coinciding with collective bargaining negotiations between player and league. WNBA players and leadership have until October 31st to shake hands on a new CBA with players asking for a bigger cut of the league's growing revenue. Under the current agreement, WNBA players only get 9.3% of league revenue. That means Caitlin Clark's rookie contract was worth just $76,000 a year. A WNBA Max contract is only worth $250,000 a year. WNBA leadership long justified this low pay as a result of low revenue. But now that viewership, ticket sales, brand sponsorships and broadcast partnerships are booming, they want to renegotiate. Neil There is a big disconnect between eyeballs and dollar signs right now.

Neal Freyman (13:16)

The press conference by Collier was truly jaw dropping. She took a piece of paper that she wrote this four and a half minute speech lambasting league leadership and no one saw this coming. And after the game she just lit into Kathy Engelbert, the commissioner of the wnba. She said the real threat to our league isn't money. It isn't ratings or even missed calls or even physical play. It's the lack of accountability from the league office. You saw other stars after this happened say you know what, Collier is kind of right. We don't really like the way this the direction of the leadership of the WNBA right now. So she got a lot of support from other players. However, there is an M. Night Shyamalan level twist here in that Collier is the co founder of a rival league to the WNBA unrivaled. She co founded it with her husband who is now the president and former New York Liberty forward Brianna Stewart, a former WNBA star. This is a three on three league and they pay players six figures to play and it is seen as somewhat of a rival to the wnba. So she is a financial interest in growing unrivaled and she also may have a similar interest in seeing the WNBA lose a little bit compared to unrivaled. So some were questioning perhaps a conflict of interest here. But I think that is getting a little bit buried by the groundswell of support for Collier's comments directed against the leadership of the wnba.

Toby Howell (14:42)

It is just as you said at the beginning the show the best of Times, the worst of times, because again, this was the most viewed final finals game. Again, take Caitlin Clark completely out of the equation. She's not in the Finals, she hasn't been in the playoffs at all. And yet eyeballs are still tuning in to watch the league. And so as this is happening, you have the players kind of at leadership's throat because it is kind of a crux right now in negotiations. Are NBA WNBA players going to start to receive a larger share of revenue? Again, they're not asking for NBA level salaries, they're just asking for NBA level amount of revenue share that that league is getting. So right now this is a very important moment. That's why Caitlin Clark called it the most important for a while. And it would stink if next year's season kind of gets delayed or disrupted, which is a very real possibility right now. If there's no deal by Halloween, technically that could stretch into next year, which would again be a bummer because the league has so much momentum right now. But that is absolutely something we've seen happen in other men's sports leagues. It could very well happen in wnba.

Neal Freyman (15:44)

As we should also ment that Kathy Engelbert, the commissioner of the WNBA, who is a former CEO of Deloitte, did respond to Collier. She said that she denied that. She said that Caitlin Clark should be grateful. She just said that that never happened. She was supposed to meet with Collier a few days after this press conference happened, but after denying that those comments happened, they broke off that meeting. So it looks like that relationship still remains icy. She said that it's clear that I'm not very well liked among the players right now and I'm working to restore that tr. But she also, and along with the NBA commissioner Adam Silver, said that they are confident that they are going to reach a CBA deal. Perhaps not by the end of the month, but at some point.

Toby Howell (16:27)

Meanwhile, the ace is up three zero and kind of rolling to the third championship in four years. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with Neil's numbers.

Neal Freyman (16:38)

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Toby Howell (16:44)

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Neal Freyman (16:58)

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Toby Howell (17:09)

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Neal Freyman (17:22)

Workplace is a digital mess.

Toby Howell (17:24)

Is my laptop dusty again?

Neal Freyman (17:26)

Yes, but that's not what I'm talking about. Teams are scattered across locations using a chaotic mix of apps and devices. It's a logistical nightmare that creates security risks and eats up valuable time.

Toby Howell (17:36)

Well, it's a good thing there's JumpCloud and Air in a Can for that matter. JumpCloud is a unified IT management platform that securely manages all employee identities and devices from a single place, cutting through.

Neal Freyman (17:49)

The chaos by consolidating IT tools. JumpCloud helps businesses save money and avoid the complexity of managing multiple systems. Its AI powered platform helps you protect, manage and monitor your entire workforce so you can stay one step ahead.

Toby Howell (18:02)

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Neal Freyman (18:13)

Toby, you should really keep some screen wipes around. As for the rest of us, clean up the digital mess. Learn more at jumpcloud.com/brew that's jumpcloud.com/brew welcome to Neil's Numbers, the segment where I share three stats from the week's news that will wake you up faster than a Celsius. My first number is for all of you aspiring Carrie Bradshaws. The Economist ranked America's top 100 cities by affordability for people who want to live alone, which it calls the Carrie Bradshaw Index after the Sex and the City character who lived her best solo Manhattan life dubiously. Without further ado, the most affordable city for living alone is Wichita, Kansas, where median wages are 75% higher than what is needed to afford the average studio apartment. Other super affordable cities for solos include Lincoln, Nebraska and Tulsa, Oklahoma, which make up for in cheap what they lack in excitement. On the other end of the spectrum, New York was once again the most unaffordable city for living by yourself, which is why very few people do it here. Outside of TV shows, the median monthly rent for a studio apartment is about $3800, meaning you must earn over $151,000 a year to live there without spending more than 30% of your gross income on rent, a common measure of affordability. Toby the Economist uses the character of Carrie Bradshaw to reveal a deeper truth. Quote if you dream of affording a place to your town you live in is as important as what you earn because rents vary across cities far more than wages do.

Toby Howell (19:45)

How is she affording all those shoes on a columnist salary? That's what I want to know. There are certain towns and cities where their star is rising in terms of four, really and term certain towns and cities that are falling in terms of affordability. One of the biggest two that I want to call it are Houston and Dallas, which were comfortably affordable last year. But now this year, they've both fallen into the unaffordable zone as rents have drastically outpaced wages. Austin saw rents jump 25% year over year. The city's median wage is $10,000 less. So that gives it a Bradshaw score of 0.8. Again, above one is what you're looking for. Below one means you're unaffordable. So it is fascinating to see how certain Sunbelt states have just risen and fallen in affordability too. Memphis actually had one of the biggest slides too. They became a lot more unaffordable from just residual migrations as well. So interesting to see which parts of the country are becoming more unaffordable and which, like Wichita, are just like a bastion of affordability.

Neal Freyman (20:46)

And we should put some respect on Wichita's name because, yeah, maybe we said it's not that exciting, but there are some few interesting things about Wichita. First of all, some of the best fast food in the country started their Pizza Hut was launched on May 31, 1958 by two brothers who went to Wichita State University. White Castle is another great chain that started in Wichita. It's also known as the air capital of the world. I'm sure they gave themselves that moniker, but Cessna, there's a guy named Clyde Cessna who started Cessna there. It's become a huge supplier of aircraft parts for Boeing and Airbus. And then finally, we got to talk about the debruce grain elevator that is recognized by the Guinness World Records as the world's largest grain elevator by capacity, as a storage capacity, get this. Of over 2 of over 20 million bushels of wheat. It's a massive structure stretching 2700ft about a half a mile.

Toby Howell (21:43)

We got to talk about the grain elevator. And we have to have another Sex in the City reboot with Kerry heading to Wichita. I mean, something's good is going to happen between that. So hbo, if you're listening, Kerry, in which I think that is magic there.

Neal Freyman (21:56)

All right, for my second number. Cristiano Ronaldo is a billionaire. Not terribly shocking, I know, but for the first time, Bloomberg clock this soccer star's net worth at $1.4 billion, making him the sport's only billionaire. Ronaldo has come a long way from his upbringing in poverty on the Portuguese island of Madeira, where the airport is now literally called Cristiano Ronaldo International Airport. His soccer career began in his native country, then at mega clubs across Europe like Manchester United and Real Madrid. To complement his substantial salary for prolific goal scoring on the pitch, Ronaldo signed more endorsement deals than Sydney Sweeney, earning untold millions from brands like Nike and Armani. We don't know how much he gets paid per sponsored post, but it's probably more than anyone else on this earth because Ronaldo is the most popular person on Instagram with over 660 million followers. But all that didn't add up to $1 billion until Ronaldo made one of the most decisive and controversial moves of his career, leaving Europe to sign with the Saudi Arabian team Al Nasser. To lure Ronaldo, Saudi Arabia offered him more than Mark Zuckerberg offers AI engineers, and his recent deal with the team worth more than $400 million vaulted him into the 3 comma club. Toby Ronaldo is a unique sports billionaire in that most of his money comes from actual income from playing the sport, not equity in an adjacent business. Roger Federer's billionaire status primarily stems from his stake in the shoe brand on running, while Michael Jordan's comes from his long running deal with Nike and his ownership of the Charlotte Hornets. Ronaldo has just played for a really long time as one of the best players in the sport and moved to teams that paid him gobs of money. Pretty simple formula. You should try it.

Toby Howell (23:33)

He's just a W2 guy, you know, collecting a paycheck, becoming a billionaire. His paycheck just looks a little bigger than yours or mine. It is fascinating though David Beckham, who is the call him Cristiano Ronaldo before Cristiano Ronaldo just in terms of global recognizability. His he retired with $100 million in total lifetime earnings. Ronaldo is creeping up on $600 million in a salary, so it is just shows the amount of money. But this Al Nassar contract is just a total outlier in global sports. No one is even clearing close to the amount of money that Ronaldo is bringing in. He also got equity in the team as well. So you said that he's mostly making the money off of salary, but in the future he says he wants to own multiple soccer clubs. He already owns a stake in the very club he's playing for now. So I could see this number start to compound over time as well.

Neal Freyman (24:23)

And here is a very interesting piece of Ronaldo lore. He was named in honor of his dad, Brad's favorite movie actor, who was Ronald Reagan.

Toby Howell (24:32)

I genuinely. I mean, I've played soccer my whole life. I've been a Ronaldo fan for a long time. Literally never knew that until researching this story. Ronald Reagan? Are you serious? That is one of the craziest pieces of bar trivia that you'll have in your back pocket.

Neal Freyman (24:44)

Ronaldo was named after Ronald Reagan, and now he's a billionaire. Okay, my final number is 150, which is how many people on average are in your social circle. The number comes from British psychologist Robin Dunbar, who studied more than 30 primate species to come up with a fascinating relationship. The size of the neocortexes in these species brains was directly correlated to the size of their stable social groups. As the Wall Street Journal notes, the neocortex of the brain is responsible for things like language, problem solving, and self awareness, all skills that translate to fostering social relationships that for primates, improve survival rates because when a predator is bearing down, it helps to be able to coordinate escape routes. Humans have an unusually large neocortex, which gives us the cognitive energy to maintain connections with approximately 150 people. According to Dunbar, he found this number consistent through societies and eras, from hunter gatherer kinship networks to morbid Mormon wagon trains in the 1800s. No one has 150 best friends, of course. And Dunbar notes that a human social circle is divided into hierarchies. You've got your inner circle of five people you can find in the most, and 10 additional good friends you see about once a month, which accounts for 60% of your social attention. Then comes what he calls the weekend backyard barbecue party. Group of 50 people, which includes your besties, and then a final outer ring of 100 that would come to your wedding. Toby, what a coincidence. You're planning a wedding. Do you find this 150 rule holds as you're figuring out who to invite?

Toby Howell (26:15)

Yeah, it is interesting that this concentric circle, as you start to expand, when you start start planning your wedding, and you go, man, how long do these circles actually expand into? Like, I haven't talked to this person in a while right now. But as we are in wedding planning, I have exceeded 150 people that maybe could come to the wedding because some Swedish researchers have found that 150 people might be a under prediction. Humans are not like other primates, they argue, because we are no longer living in a survival base environment. So while resource availability or predation are things that monkeys might have to, you know, deal with, humans do not have to deal with it anymore. So there's no limit on foods competitiveness anymore. So even If I have 150 or more people in my group, we're not fighting over the same scraps of food anymore. And so therefore why can't I have 250 people or 350 people in my group?

Neal Freyman (27:10)

So I've seen you at a Chipotle.

Toby Howell (27:12)

I do fight pretty hard over that. All of this to say is that maybe this 150 number that has kind of become the de facto number of how many people you could possibly know is not necessarily a de facto number anymore.

Neal Freyman (27:23)

All right, let's sprint to the finish with a final headline. Dolly Parton posted a video yesterday telling fans, I'm not dying. Which, hey, is great news. But also, why did she feel the need to say that? The day before, the legendary country singer's sister Freda wrote on social media that Dolly, quote, hasn't been feeling her best and she had been up all night praying for my sister who' said she hasn't been feeling her best lately. That sparked a national freakout about her health because we can't lose Dolly. Not right now. Rest assured. Dolly is doing fine, saying, I'm not ready to die yet. I don't think God is through with me and I ain't done working. And her sister also tried to clean up this mess, posting the next day. I didn't mean to scare anyone or make it sound so serious when asking for prayers for Dolly. Toby, it's another reminder to think before you post.

Toby Howell (28:10)

Think before you post. But I do think it showed people's mental states right now, saying, oh my gosh, anybody but Dolly. It is funny that people just have these parasocial relationships too, and that social media can blow things out of proportion. Another kind of funny dying joke that was recently made in Malibu earlier this week as well. Dick Van dyke, who is 99 years old, said that he hopes he makes it to his hundredth birthday because he's on a book tour promoting his book 100 Rules for Living to 100 A Optimist Guide to a Happy Life. But his birthday is in December, so he goes, how funny would it be if I didn't actually make it to that? And here I am promoting this book. So a couple of semi morbid but semi funny celebrity death jokes, if you will. But Dolly, she's doing fine and we're all happy to see it.

Neal Freyman (28:58)

May they live long and prosper. Okay, that is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us. And have a wonderful Thursday. If you have any feedback on today's episode, send a note to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. And if you're coming in to write and saying that I said that Briana Stewart was a former NBA WNBA player, well, I'm correcting myself now. She is currently a player for the New York Liberty, so you can withhold your criticisms there. I apologize for the error. Okay, let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair makeup is the opposite of Locked In. Devin Emery is our president and our shows a production of Boarding Brewing.

Toby Howell (29:39)

Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.