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Americans Are Spending Like No Tomorrow & Dell Surge Lifts Trump’s Portfolio
00:28:26
Spend spend spend & Trump and Dell's shared gains
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A
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Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
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And I'm Toby Howell.
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Today, JP Morgan's salami incident is its latest tabloid scandal.
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Then on your left open AI Anthropic now has a bigger valuation than its chief rival. It's Friday, May 29th. Let's ride.
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B
Good morning and Happy Friday. Anyone catch the spelling bee last night? And oh well, it was electric. Trey Parik, a 14 year old 8th grader from California, defeated 12 year old Ishan Gupta of Jersey City in a sudden death spell off to win $50,000 in his final year of eligibility. When the heavyweight battle was deadlocked after the ninth round, the judges declared a spell off, which means these kids had to spell as many incredibly obscure words as they could in 90 seconds. Shrey nailed 32 of them, the most in a spell off ever, while Ishan managed 25. To me, in this age of AI, it's nice to know that the kids are still reading books, even if it's just memorizing the dictionary.
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C
I loved the shootout style finish, which is a little controversial because purists say it rewards speed and memorization rather than, you know, tricky vowel combinations. But since it was a spell off, there's no real one word that won him the title. Scripps has said officially it was bromocriptine that won him the championship, which obviously means, Neil, say it with me. A polypeptide alkaloid that mimics the activity of dopamine. Yeah, of course you knew.
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B
I don't know what it means, but I sure as heck can't spell it either.
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I implore you guys to watch a video of the spell off because Stray is listing out letters faster than I can say any words. The only thing slowing him down was the host trying to pronounce the words that he was giving him. And now, Neil, I am going to put you on the spot. Spell bromocriptine no one wants. I think you can do it. I think you can do more. Kryptein, Bromocryptine.
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B O B R O M O I P T I N E. You nailed it. You actually got that right. Watch out.
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Straight watch out.
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Okay, now a word. I'm feeling good about myself. Now a word from our sponsor LinkedIn Ads Toby how do you generate return on ad spend? Spend a spend easy, tiger. If you don't optimize spend in the right way, it can easily be bull spend. See, impressions, views and reactions don't always lead to return. That's why LinkedIn ads helps you invest in what looks good to your CFO. They generate the highest ROAS 121% of all major networks reach the right buyers
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with LinkedIn ads you can target by company, industry, job title and more. That way you can avoid the not so fun conversations with your CFO.
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Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a $250 credit for the next one. Just go to LinkedIn.com/MBD. That's LinkedIn.com/MBD. Terms and conditions apply. There's only a few things you can count on in life Diners, drive Ins and Dives, reruns and American shopping like their Carrie Bradshaw, retail shares popped off yesterday after reporting that customers continue to spend even as the war in Iran drives gas prices higher and savings get depleted. Dollar Tree up 18%, Best Buy up 16% and Kohl's surged 20% upon revealing the surprising resilience of the American consumer. But resilient in this case also means choosy. Retail execs noted that customers were opting for value and affordability over everything else. So it's no surprise it was the budget retailers like Dollar Tree and Kohl's that are being overrun with shoppers from all income spectrums. Cole's CEO Michael Bender was the most explicit about the conversations going on in American homes. Right now, he said. Right now our customer is sitting around their kitchen table trying to make life work. It's the combination of how do I pay for gas, food, light bill, all the things that are necessities, and with what's left over, which retailer is the one that's going to help me stretch my dollars as far as I possibly can. For more people, it is Kohl's. The company posted its best comparable sales performance in more than four years. But all that spending has taken a bite out of savings and Fresh D data released yesterday. The US personal saving rate dropped to 2.6% in April, down from 3.2% in March, 4.3% in January and 5.6% from a year ago. So now we're at the lowest savings levels since mid-2022. So Toby, it was a real shocker seeing these retailers report booming sales. But they definitely sounded a little anxious that the good times won't last.
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C
Yeah, Americans are burning through their curse their cushion at an alarming rate. They are spending faster than income is growing. So when that happens, of course your savings are going to be drawn down. The big story here though is is it good or is it bad that Americans are spending in this way? And Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has argued that low savings rate could actually reflect some good things because that means consumers are confident they're going out, maybe they're putting more money into the stock market. They're not hoarding cash because what do people do during times of recessions? They do hoard cash. And so savings rate goes up. So just because low saving things is out there doesn't mean it's inherently bad. But then you look at what they are spending their money on. It's not like they're going on these luxury vacations. They're not spending on superfluous goods. They are spending on stuff they need necessities, gasoline. All these things that have become more expensive recently. And that's not necessarily good if gasoline is the thing that's bringing down your savings.
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And that was pretty stark in Costco's earnings. They also reported yesterday the CEO said they saw record breaking volumes for gas in the fiscal third quarter. For the final five weeks of the quarter were Costco's top five volume weeks ever. So Costco is known for cheap things as well as cheap gas. When you become a member and people were just flocking to Costco gas stations. Costco also saw 12% sales increase from the past year. Another thing that's guaranteed his life is Costco beating revenue, earnings, revenue expectations. So you're right, there is a debate about whether a low savings rate or a high savings rate is an indication of a healthy consumer. Because during the 20202008 financial crisis, the savings rate was above 8% and now we're at 2.6%. Right now it seems like people are just paying a ton for gasoline.
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C
I do think that Best Buy was the weirdest company during this earnings cycle though, because yes, you can paint the story that Dollar Tree is doing well because people want to save money. Costco is doing well because people want to save money. But Best Buy doing well, that was a little confusing to me because electronics and these, these things are not necessarily necessities, but their kind of take on it was that consumers will spend on discretionary products if they feel necessary. If there's innovation attached to it. So gaming consoles, mobile phones, these are all things that sold well at Best Buy still. And it does, to me, show that the American consumer is relatively strong still, because those are not, you know, your bread and butter necessities. I mean, you could argue in today's day and age that a cell phone is just that. But big picture, it does seem like the consumer is a lot more price sensitive, they're a lot more deal focused, but they are still spending even though that spend is burning through their savings. Moving on, it took a funding round that reached midway through the Alphabet, but Anthropic has officially passed OpenAI as the world's most valuable AI startup. Anthropic raised $65 billion in a Series 8 round at a roughly $965 billion valuation. A few comparisons courtesy of Fortune. To put that number in perspective, that is roughly the GDP of Switzerland, more than the combined market cap of every US airline and more than the entire US defense budget. It's also sort of breaking VC nomenclature. A unicorn is a $1 billion startup. A decacorn is a $10 billion startup. Anthropic is now flirting with a valuation that does not have a name, a megacorn. A trilicorn. Left in the dust is OpenAI, who last raised at a paltry $852 billion valuation as Anthropic's popular coding tool cloud code has spread like wildfire and pushed its competitor off the top of the AI startup heap. Anthropic said its air crossed $47 billion this month. That is up from a reported $4 billion in July of last year. Now, there's been some chatter about how companies like Uber or Microsoft are pulling back on their AI spending as it balloons in costs and hasn't led to sufficient roi. And yet Anthropic investors seem undaunted and almost turned it into our first trillion dollar AI startup. Outside of some weird Elon company combining
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stuff, this is one of the fastest growing startups ever. And it's got to feel good for the Amada siblings. Back in 2021 they were working at OpenAI and Dario and his sister Daniela. Dario is now the CEO of Anthropic and Daniela is the president of anthropic. They left OpenAI because they were worried that OpenAI wasn't concerned about AI safety enough. So they started Anthropic and baked safety into the very core of the company. And their mission continues to be, quote, safely guiding the world through a technological revolution that has the potential to change the course of human history. Now, for many years, OpenAI was the face of an AI startup. They released ChatGPT, they got everything going. But now it feels like Anthropic has surpassed them, not only in valuation, but in just being the reputational and the. Just the public image of. Of AI and just been in headlines everywhere. They've been fighting with the Pentagon. They released Mythos, which was this AI model for cybersecurity they said was too dangerous to release to the public. And then Pope Leo earlier this week issued that encyclical, this big letter that was talked about everywhere. Who was with Pope Leo, but an anthropic executive. So they've sort of taken the mantle from OpenAI in just four years that, you know, OpenAI has been around for a lot longer.
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C
This valuation is crazy too, because I mentioned a Series 8 round. You never get to a Series A Tron. That is a very rarefied error. Not necessarily good or bad. It's just very few companies make it that deep in private rounds. Facebook, Slack, Lyft and Discord are a few that you may have heard of. Databricks recently raised a Series I, J and K, but they only hit a $134 billion valuation. So anthropic is an order of magnitude larger than them. And I also talked about the unique moment we're in right now in AI, where a lot of companies are going, is this worth it? They're laying off workers in order to afford their AI spend. So some questions are raising around if this is going to be a profitable endeavor going forward. Axios recently told this anecdote about a client who spent half a billion dollars in one month on Claude code usage after failing to cap that. That is $500 million just going to Anthropics, you know, air right there. And so that's not sustainable. Like, no one can keep that spending up. So maybe some of these revenue figures are inflated by this unique moment in time of token maxing, where these companies are saying, use AI however you want, where a lot of people are just using AI to check the weather. It's like bringing a Ferrari to go pick up your groceries. It's way too much horsepower for what you need. So maybe this is the peak of the hype cycle, or maybe it's just another round on its, you know, quest of world domination. But almost $1 trillion private startup is a moment in time that we have to just like take a minute and say, holy moly, this is quite the moment we're living through. Moving on. It's stock of the week, Dog of the week time, the segment where we pick one stock that immediately unpacked their suitcase after a long trip and one stock that let it sit there for an anxiety inducing amount of time. I won the pre show game of who can pull the perfect espresso shot, so I'm up first and my stock of the week is Dell, which just reported its fastest revenue growth since 2018. Dell is not just a company who makes boring pieces anymore, though they still do that. Their AI server business is flying with revenue jumping 757% since last year. Dell buys GPUs then gussies them up to get ready for Dell buys GPUs, then gussies them up to get them ready for hungry AI companies to use. And that infrastructure business is crushing. Its full year revenue forecast is now $60 billion. Dell also got a major assist from the man in the White House. President Trump became a Dell shareholder earlier this year, buying over $1 million of the stock, according to his personal filings, and piled on the support saying go out and buy a Dell at an event earlier this month. Then the Pentagon signed a five year, nearly $10 billion contract with Dell this week to cap off a whirlwind of support from Uncle Sam. And it all adds up to a great week for the stock with earnings, the Pentagon deal and Trump support powering it to a 75% gain over the last five days.
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Yeah, Michael, Dell and Trump are kind of BFFs and it's paying off for Dell. It seems one of the reasons that Dell and Trump are so close is that last December, remember Michael and his wife Susan appeared alongside Trump and then they, they announced an investment of 6.25 billion to Trump accounts, which are these is this investment program for children that was actually launched yesterday. So everything was coming up Dell yesterday. This is considered the largest ever private commitment devoted to American children. $250 to about 25 million American children just ceding an investment account. So wherever there is Trump, there is Dell and whenever there is Dell, there is Trump. And there are a lot of questions being raised about whether Trump is pumping the stock because of the fact that he now owns over $1 million worth of it as of Q1. And now that 1 million, at least 1 million is worth a lot more after Dell's stunning stock surge.
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And the company itself though is doing very well. I mentioned like their PC business, which feels like an afterthought that beat on revenue that rose 17% to 14 and a half billion dollars. But again, that business is Just so far from the main thing that Dell does at this point. Its server business is just crushing it. It jumped 750% year over year. That is insane. They're implying 144% growth going forward. For the year. It now has over 5,000 AI server customers, everyone from just big enterprises to these Neo clouds that want to spend up their own cloud business. Dell is really good at just the nuts and bolts of, of setting up a server farm. You need a lot. You can't just, you know, put a GPU in a room and say, make an AI happen. You have to, you know, wire them together. We've talked about how fiber optics is a big part of it. All the stuff that goes into setting up servers. Dell has been doing long before the AI revolution came, and now it's just finally their moment in time. But yeah, it's, it's fascinating to see. When I think of Dell, I think of just the computer monitor that's sitting on a desk, not doing much now. It's an AI infrastructure.
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Yeah. Trump got up there at the podium a couple of weeks ago, was like, go out and buy a Dell. And Michael Dell is probably sitting there being like, well, that's fine, but actually don't buy our computer. Just buy a bunch of servers from us.
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All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with our dog the week right after this.
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Toby, what if I told you you had to pay me $1,000 right now?
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I'd be in deep trouble.
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B
Well, you would be in the same boat as a lot of employees in the US and that can lead to decreased productivity and distractions. Thankfully, Aflac can help.
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withheld pre tax to just head to aflac.com/morning brew daily. That's a flash.com/morning brew daily.
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C
Neal, I've got something pretty big on the Verizon.
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B
You mean Horizon?
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C
Nope, pretty sure that's not a real word. But the Verizon Visa card helps eligible Verizon customers get more from everyday spending. You can earn 4% rewards on gas, groceries and dining.
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B
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For a limited time, new card holders can get up to $150 cash back. Just head to verizon.com morning brew to learn more. That's verizon.com/morning brew. Neil, have you ever wanted to create a meaningful project beloved by millions of people?
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B
You mean like a daily podcast with your friend?
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No, something way cooler than a podcast with your coworker. For those with real vision to create, there's Minimax. It's a full stack AI Lab building Frontier foundation models across text, voice, video and music.
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From indie developers to global enterprises, Minimax models are available via API and ready to build with today.
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To get started, just head to Minimax IO. That's Mini Max IO
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B
My dog of the week is JP Morgan, because with so many scandals piling up, it's not clear whether this is a bank or a beach house. In the latest addition to J.P. morgan's hot tabloid summer, dubbed the Salami Incident, the largest firm on Wall street was ordered to pay $4.25 million over a Super bowl deli platter that cost just $642.50. Here's what happened. In February 2024, a longtime JP Morgan broker based in L A named Brent Ryan Bodnar expensed a spread from a local deli that included buffalo wings, sandwiches, pickles and some cookies. According to his lawyer, Bodner wanted to turn a watch party for the Chiefs and Niners into a client prospecting shindig at his house, but ultimately, only his cousin, a client and her businessman boyfriend rsvp. Someone at JP Morgan must have flagged the deli platter because the bank investigated the expense report and fired Bodnar, claiming that the report implied the meal was eaten at the deli, not at his home. He both misstated the purpose and location of the gathering, a J.P. morgan spokesperson said. But Bodnar claimed wrongful termination, and last week, an arbitration panel overseen by the Wall street watchdog Finra took his side, awarding him a $4.25 million sum out of JP Morgan's pocket. Toby the Salami incident comes on top of a mega viral story involving an ex JP Morgan banker accusing a colleague of using him as a sex slave. Not exactly the kind of headlines Jamie Dimon wants to be making.
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First of all, I feel bad for Bodnar. Not because he was terminated or wrongfully terminated, but because when you throw a party and you buy a deli platter and only two people show up, that has got to feel awful right there. You really misread the room when it came to how many wanted to come to your super bowl party. But the heart of Bodnar's claim is that JP Morgan had already decided to fire him before the investigation into the Salami incident ever concluded. And he said that bank employees moved, quote, like vultures on a carcass, to design to divide up his client book. So Bonner managed almost $1 billion in client money. And the fact that they already had someone coming in a retention team to split up those clients to, to move to other parts of JP Morgan showed that this was not about a deli platter incident. It was more about, you know, trying to get Bodnar off the payroll and so they could divide up his book right there. But an insane. Like the fact that we're saying salami gate at all in conjunction with the biggest bank in the world, just the fact that we're saying the word salami gate and then the biggest bank in the world is just not a good look for J.P. morgan.
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No. And it's pushed back on Botner. And it doesn't like this ruling from FINRA as well. It said, in every workplace in America, submitting an inaccurate expense report is grounds for termination. We vehemently disagree with FINRA's decision and are disappointed by this outcome. But they're probably focusing on Bonner a little less than this other thing that is happening, which has been percolating for weeks and months now. We didn't really talk about in the show, but you may have seen it in the New York Post or all over your Twitter feed. Basically, there's a former banker of JP Morgan named Shirayu Rana, and he sued the bank and a former colleague, Lorna Hajj Deeney, accusing her of allegedly drugging and sexually assaulting him over a long period of time. She has countersued. JP Morgan also said that this did not happen. This is a complete fabrication. So this is working its way through the court system. This week brought another twist. When his lawyer ran. His lawyer, Daniel Kaiser, just resigned from his position. He said, I'm gone. We don't know exactly why, but then the judge was like, actually have to stay on till another lawyer comes. So it must have been a little awkward in the courthouse on Tuesday when he had to show up on behalf of his client that he had resigned from. And he's like, okay, I guess I'm just a lame duck lawyer for you now.
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Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon has said JP Morgan is doing really well right now. They have a lot of excess cash on their, on their book right now. And they say, we're maybe looking into an acquisition in the $20 billion range. So you have three headlines going simultaneous right now. Jamie Dimon said, we want to buy something for $20 billion. Then you have this sexual assault case. And then you have the salami plate as well. So just a lot of weird optics around JP Morgan right now.
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B
Maybe you should buy TMZ to get a little pr.
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C
Yeah, exactly.
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B
All right, let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Maybe you didn't have the best day yesterday, but I guarantee it wasn't worse than Jeff Bezos is. The New Glenn rocket from the space company Blue Origin exploded in spectacular fashion while conducting a hot fire test on a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, shaking homes nearby and causing a massive fireball that could be seen as far as Orlando. No one was hurt, and Bezos explained it's too early to know the root cause, but we're already working to find it. Very rough day, but we'll rebuild whatever needs rebuilding and get back to flying. It's worth it. It's another setback for New Glenn, a troubled rocket that's been tapped to play a key role in bringing NASA astronauts back to the moon. But it was kind of an awesome explosion.
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I implore you to watch it. It was the biggest explosion I've ever seen on camera. And people were filming the explosion from their planes landing in Orlando Airport. Imagine looking off to, you know, your right, and you just see this massive fireball in the sky.
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They're like, oh, Nolan's filming Oppenheimer, right?
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It literally was that level. New Glenn is way behind schedule at this point because they were supposed to fly June 4th carrying 48Amazon LEO satellites. Amazon is so far behind in the race to create this Starlink competitor, they need at least 24 Blue Origin launches to get up to the FCC requirement of how many satellites you need in orbit to, you know, offer Internet connection to a lot of people. So that doesn't help with that. But the big thing here is not actually losing the rocket because you can rebuild a rocket relatively quickly in a few months these days. The launch pad, though, is so messed up at this point. One of the towers fell, one of the launch towers fell. The concrete is damaged badly as well, so that you cannot rebuild in months. And that's a very specialized, inexpensive launch paddle that is going to take a lot longer. So now the timelines are all out of whack for their commercial satellite business. But also, as you said, for the Artemis mission, going to the moon.
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B
Moving on. The Trump administration wants to release a $250 bill featuring the face of Donald Trump. Treasury Department officials have mocked up a new bill commemorating the US 250th birthday that would have at its center the president's portrait, which would make him the first living person on US currency in more than 150 years. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant defended the move yesterday, saying, I don't think that there's anything untoward about having the person who is President of the United states on the 250th anniversary. Bill. There's just one problem. It's against the law. Federal law says that only the portrait of a deceased individual can appear on US currency and securities in a measure dating back to 1866. Toby Trump, portrait or not, a $250 bill would be dangerous for me in a casino.
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I want to talk about this 1866 rule, though, because it has a very funny origin story. So a Treasury official during that year somehow managed to get his own face on a 5 cent note, by the way, which is crazy. We're already up to $250 notes and since then, no living person has appeared. But I do think it's very funny that this guy was printing money, is like, wait a second, why don't I just put my own self on it? And so that rule was passed down and it has been held very sacred since that moment. But it does speak to, you know, Trump loves to put his name on lots of things. We talked about Trump accounts. Everything is like Trump X and the government at this point. So the money question is, of course, he would try to put his own face on a $250bill.
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And they're trying to get this to actually happen, right? Bills in Congress, in the Senate, to actually move this forward, because that's what needs to happen to turn around this law that our boy, our mid level bureaucrat in 1866. A fast one. Yeah, yeah.
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C
Finally, Virginia losing to UMBC. Mike Tyson losing to Buster Douglas. Michigan losing to Appalachian State. None of those famous upsets can hold a candle to what happened yesterday at the French Open. Jannik Sinner, the number one player in the world, lost to Juan manuel Rundelo, the 56th ranked player in the world. But the details are even worse. Sinner arrived at Roland Garros as the prohibitive favorite to win the tournament after his arch rival, Carlos Alcaraz had to withdraw. But what was supposed to be a cakewalk to the final turned into a code red, not because of his opponent across the net, but because of extreme heat. Sinner won the first two sets easily and was a single game away from winning in the third and final set. But then his body essentially shut down from playing in temperatures that exceeded 90 degrees Fahrenheit I kind of just hit a wall and that's it, sinner said. Neil Odds on Sinner falling this early in the tournament were essentially 0. Pre match. Sinner was a minus 50,000 favorite on DraftKings, which means a $50,000 bet would yield just $100. At one point during the third set, when he was up 5 1, the odds exceeded minus 10,000, a 99% chance of him winning. And yet he lost.
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B
I mean, this is a thing. His chief obstacles have been number one Carlos Alcaraz and number two heat and cramping back in the Australia Open. Sorry, was it this year? Back in the Australian Open earlier this year he lost to djokovic, which was 100 degree heat, and then he also had to retire in China for the Shanghai Masters last year because of soaring heat. So this has been a problem for Sinner. And what's exciting for tennis fans is that you don't have Alcaraz, you don't have Sinner. They've won the last however many majors going back to 2024. So maybe someone else will win for
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C
a this was crazy. I mean you were, we were walking together and you go, Sinner's gonna lose. And then you read the scoreline. I'm like, there's absolutely no way he loses. Essentially he's told reporters that he tanked the fourth set to try to recover. He lost 61 and then he lost the fifth set 61 as well. So he never did quite recover. He said he slept poorly the night before. So whenever you're feeling not good performing at work, remember Yannick Sinner had a much worse day than you on a much worse night night's sleep.
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B
That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Friday and an even better weekend to share your thoughts on the episode or anything else. Send us an email to. More Toby, did you take the elevator to our floor this morning?
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C
I did. You could say I was elevated here.
- [27:31]
B
Ever heard of Elevated Travel Rewards?
- [27:33]
C
Are you talking about the Capital One Venture X business card that offers double miles on every purchase?
- [27:38]
B
You know it. The founders of Unfiltered Hospitality know it too. They use their Capital One Venture X business card to scale their team and their business.
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C
Is it true that you can earn an early spend bonus, a $300 annual travel credit, and a 10,000 mile anniversary bonus?
- [27:55]
B
Yes, it is. You can maximize your rewards potential and get back to the things that matter the most to your business.
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C
Those are pretty sweet perks for just a $395 annual fee.
- [28:05]
B
The sweetest Smart business Better travel terms apply. Go to capital1.com/morning brew.