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Americans Have Bad Vibes on Economy & UK Demands Apple’s Encrypted Data
00:30:13
Consumer sentiment falls to a new low & the British government clashes with Apple
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A
Hey, Fidelity.
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How can I remember to invest every month?
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With the Fidelity app, you can choose.
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A schedule and set up recurring investments.
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In stocks and ETFs.
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Huh.
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That sounds easier than I thought. You got this?
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Yeah, I do. Now, where did I put my keys? You will find them where you left them.
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Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, llc. Member NYSE sipc.
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Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
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And I'm Toby Howell.
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Today, consumer sentiment is way down. Inflation expectations are way up. Are Americans souring on the economy then?
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The super bowl was kinda a blowout. But the ads, they were also honestly kind of boring, too. It's Monday, February 10th. Let's ride.
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Well, that was a spanking. The Eagles coasted by The Chiefs foot 40 to 22 to win the super bowl, avenge their loss to Kansas City two years ago and prevent the Chiefs from winning a historic third straight championship. Just utter domination by the Birds. But many of you won't be around to discuss the game and the commercials at the office today. 22.6 million people across the country plan to miss work the day after the super bowl, according to the Harris Poll, which is up 40% from a year ago. Now, whether these numbers are accurate or not, who knows? But here's my question to the NFL. Instead of making everyone have a brutal Monday, why not just move the super bowl to a Saturday?
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Well, Neil, Roger Goodell, the commissioner of the NFL, has answered that very question. It comes down to ratings. According to Goodell, the reason we haven't done it in the past is just from an audience standpoint. The audiences on Sunday night are so much larger. So you got to feed the ratings machine, even if it means giving 22 million Americans a case of a Super bowl flu. Which, by the way, Neil, should you be partying in Philadelphia right now or something?
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My heart is on Broad Street. My body is on 6th Avenue.
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I like that. Married to the game. We will discuss the big game in more depth later in the show, so stick around for that. Now, a word from our sponsor, Wise Business, Neal. During the pandemic, I went through a baking phase. But one time I actually substituted salt for sugar.
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B
That's not a baking phase, Toby. That's a. Oh, shoot. Called poison control phase.
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Hey, I never did it again. But it did show me how one wrong move came can lead to disastrous results. Same goes for managing international payments for your business.
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What they expected and factor in exchange rates, hidden fees, delays. It's like trying to bake without a recipe.
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If you're ready to simplify your international payments, check out wise.com/business. That's wise.com/business Trade War 2.0 between the US and China has officially kicked off starting today. Chinese tariffs on $14 billion worth of American exports go into effect. One of Beijing's responses to President Trump's announcement of 10% tariffs on Chinese goods last week. And then last night, in a surprise move, Trump also said he plans to impose 25% tariffs on on imports of steel and aluminum across the board to every country. The flurry of tariff announcements in the past month, whether they've been delayed or not, like in the case of Canada and Mexico, is starting to have a significant impact on Americans views on the economy. On Friday, reports showed that Americans across the political spectrum have become increasingly pessimistic over the economy and think higher inflation will rear its ugly head yet again. Here's the data. In a closely watched University of Michigan survey, consumer sentiment fell about 5% to its lowest reading since last July. So levels are lower now than they were before the election. At the same time, inflation expectations are surging, with Americans predicting 4.3% inflation in the year ahead, up from 3.3% the month before. That full percentage point jump in inflation expectations is almost unheard of. It's only the fifth time in the in 14 years we've seen such a big one month rise. Now, it's not all bad. The jobs report released on Friday showed strong employment gains in January and an unemployment rate that ticked down to a very low level of 4%. But with all the uncertainty and confusion related to tariffs, Americans are turning increasingly negative on the economy.
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A
Yeah, it seems the Trump bump was short lived. I mean, we have these tariff threats, we have these tariffs that are actually being carried out, these pretty crazy stock market swings as well, as well as a ton of executive orders that, you know, get issued and then immediately rescinded. It's all caused Americans to feel a lot more pessimistic, a lot more uncertain about the economy than before Trump took office. Remember, immediately after Trump's victory, consumer confidence went through the roof because he was going to be this very, you know, market first. He wanted sentiment stayed elevated the entire run up to the election in anticipation of Trump taking office because he won the won the Oval Office by pledging to improve the economy to bring down inflation. Those two things, obviously it's only been a month into his administration, but those two things haven't happened necessarily which is causing, you know, consumer confidence to start to, to appear to be a little.
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B
More shaky and uncertainty is manifesting in other ways as well. I don't know if you've visited the bank of England's gold vaults recently trading try to withdraw some gold there. Well, you can't because there is an eight week long line to move gold from the bank of England to the United States. And that is because of this uncertainty around potential tariffs coming on to the EU, the UK and it possibly could hit gold. So right now there's a very interesting arbitrage situation in the gold market where prices in the United States are higher than they are in London. So, so there is very long, as they would say in England, queues to ship these very heavy gold bars from England to the United States. And that is all tied in to this, this general uncertainty that traders have over what's going to happen in the economy moving forward.
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And finally, you mentioned Friday's jobs report. This jobs report was also the one where you do some data adjustments that happens at the start of every year. And what we saw in 2024 was that there were just sight of 2 million jobs added over over 2024. That's around 166,000 jobs per month, which is a pretty solid rate. Actually that is pretty much dead on with what we saw before the pandemic in 2019. As for January's jobs report though, there has been a little bit of a concerning trend. It was solid overall. But you have started to see that some of the churn that the job market needs to, you know, operate in a healthy manner has been slowing down. We've talked about this on the show before because people are not, you know, quitting their jobs. The quit rate is down a lot. So there isn't a lot of movement in the job market even though you are seeing pretty solid growth still. So and there were some external factors as well. You know, a lot of sometimes weather and illness can affect January jobs report as well as some of the natural disasters we saw like the wildfires in California. So it has been a good start to the year. We're still seeing solid jobs numbers. But when you factor in the fact that rates are still elevated, the jobs market isn't, you know, popping off anymore. That Two factors could also contribute to some of these feelings of uncertainty that we've mentioned so far in this story. Security officials from the UK are knocking at Apple's backdoor, asking the privacy focused company to allow them to snoop around encrypted content that users upload to their icloud. According to the Washington Post, the British government issued an order which is called a technical capability notice last month. It's a criminal offense to even reveal that the government has made a demand which has put Apple in a rotten spot. Does it acquiesce and break its privacy promises to its users or does it cease to offer the encryption technology so as not to run afoul of the order? The UK justified serving the notice to Apple by saying that end to end encryption makes it easier for terrorists and child abusers to hide illegal activities from law enforcement. But tech companies have long resisted being used as tools for governments to spy on their users. It's also a slippery slope. If Apple is forced to give in to the UK's demands, then other nations like the US and China will likely make similar asks. So Neil, big privacy showdown brewing here with much larger implications for how tech companies and governments interact totally.
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There is no known precedent in major democracies for a government to go knocking on a tech company's back door like this and saying, hey, we know you have encrypted data on users, let us see them. And the big implication here is it's not just for English people or British people, it's for the entire world. So any Apple user who uses this feature, and we should say it's an opt in feature, you're not, you're not on this by default. If you want to encrypt your icloud, you can, but you do have to go through some steps that Apple can take you through. But the fact that it implies globally is absolutely sending a chill down tech companies spines and, and privacy focused groups as well who say that the government should not be doing this, not be asking tech companies to allow governments to snoop on their users.
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Right? And I said it puts Apple in a rotten spot. That's not just a pun. That is so true because Apple, you know, touts privacy as one of its core values. They literally describe it as a fundamental human right. They've made it such a big selling point for users. So if they have to, you know, give in to this technical notice, it won. It will just shred their reputation because you can't be this privacy focused company, but then also let governments have a backdoor into their users data. So they'll probably just cease to offer this protection. It's called advanced data protection. They've had it around since 2022 to encrypt user data. They'll probably just stop offering that in the UK rather than give in and shred their reputation when it comes to privacy.
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B
Now what's interesting is law enforcement has had a very interesting relationship with encryption. So for the past few years or until recently they were very anti encryption because they want to see certain communications to prevent crimes. And so they were going to war with tech companies and saying let us see this encrypted data users, we do not want you to encrypt things. So we can, we can see it. And Apple had this big showdown with the FBI in 2016 over the San Bernardino shooters phone where Apple actually won in a court case against the FBI. The FBI wanted them to unlock the shooter's phone and they said no. And then they, then Apple won. So law enforcement was very anti encryption until a few years ago when the threat of Chinese hacking operations became a little more prescient than, than this other consideration. So they said, so now the FBI, a bunch of other western countries except the UK said okay, we actually think you should be using encryption because the threat of hacking from Chinese operations is more risky to us than, than what we need from you to, to prevent crime. So that is the way the world apparently has been shifting is toward encryption. The UK has zagged where others have zigged and that's why privacy groups, tech companies, say UK you're becoming a tech pariah rather than a tech leader. A financial earthquake is about to hit the world of medical research. Today the National Institutes of Health will begin implementing sweeping cuts to overhead funding for research grants. The NIH says this will save taxpayers more than $4 billion when it announced the move on Friday. But scientists have pushed back fiercely, saying that slashing the budget will halt progress on life saving medical innovations and threaten jobs. Medical research institutions and regional economies that depend on NIH funding. To understand the controversy, you first need to grasp how NIH funding works. When the agency awards a grant to a scientist, an additional percentage of that award is provided to the scientist institution to pay for infrastructure that supports the research. Think things like lab equipment, utilities, hazardous waste disposal and more. It's a pretty sizable chunk that goes to overhead. Of the $35 billion awarded to grants in fiscal year 2023, 9 billion or 26% went to those so called indirect costs. Sometimes the rate can be much higher, like in the 60s. So the NIH under Trump says the that's wasteful and that rich universities should shoulder more of the burden. They're now capping indirect reimbursements at 15%. Scientists say, okay, maybe Harvard can afford to make up the shortfall, but many, many other institutions can't. And critical research jobs, economic growth will dry up if this funding is cut off. And this is because the NIH is truly an economic force. It is the leading funder of biomedical research in the world and, and supports 412,000 jobs across the country.
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Yeah, there are cascading effects. There's a lot of people will lose their jobs. Clinical trials will start to slow down as well. A lot of research goals will go unmet because researchers have pushed back and say, like, yes, of course you want to support direct science. Those are the direct costs. But you also need to fund the indirect costs to, you know, subsidize the infrastructure necessary to carry out the, those research things. I mean, say you need a really expensive new electron microscope. You can't afford to buy it yourself, so you go to the NIH for a grant for that. But then it's also just really mundane stuff like heating the buildings, you know, paying personnel. So it's not just the fancy stuff, it's just everything you need to support this infrastructure. Also, there is pushback too, against this idea that these very rich institutions, these like Harvard, Yale, these research facilities, can make up the difference with their endowments. School endowments are not just this slush fund that you can go in and out of and pull money from willy nilly. They have pretty intense limitations that make it hard for schools, you know, draw them down too quickly. So you can't just post a graphic saying, look at how big Harvard's endowment is. They can definitely afford this. There are limitations when it comes to how you can use an endowment.
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And indirect costs have been criticized before. The Government accountability office in 2016 said that there were risks, that they present weight and that this was, this was an aspect of government spending that could be brought more into control in the government. The NIH Trump administration, in announcing this move, said, well, private foundations don't do anywhere near these indirect cost reimbursements as the NIH. Many private foundations say, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, 12% goes to indirect costs. Gates Foundation, 10% for indirect costs. So they're pointing to private donors here and saying, well, we're way out of whack with the private sector here, the private philanthropic, philanthropic sector. So that's why other reasons why we need to bring this down. So that's that's their argument. But yes, cascading effects and a disproportionate effect on certain cities and regions that have become so what they call meds and Ed's economic base. So I'm thinking Pittsburgh, Nashville, Chapel Hill area, Research Triangle. These are the areas that will likely see a bigger impact. The University of Pittsburgh for instance is getting 25% of its NIH funding cut, which is $130 million. And I was also in Birmingham, Alabama a few years ago that that city runs on UAB. That is the largest employer in Alabama. The medical research center there is massive. You can't walk a single street without seeing another UAB building. So these are the areas that will be hurt and see what happens going forward. Like many other Trump administration executive orders and actions in the first few weeks there have been legal challenges pushing back. They've been tied up in the courts and you can bet university lawyers everywhere are pushing back on this because they don't want to see all this critical research dry up.
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Up next, we have our winners of the weekend.
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Protein, plus eat smarter and get started@Factor Meals.com Morning Brew 50 off use code Morning Brew 5050 off for 50% off your first box plus free shipping. That's code Morning Brew 50 off@Factor Meals.com Morning brew 50 off for 50% off your 1st box plus free shipping we have a special winners of the Weekend segment coming your way today. Obviously, the super bowl was yesterday, and while the game was about as lopsided as a shopping cart with one wheel, we're going to run through some of the other winners that weren't wearing Kelly Green. Up first, old celebrities Meg Ryan and Billy Crystal recreated their deli scene from When Harry Met Sally, except this time Sally's enthusiasm was for Hellman's mayonnaise. Harrison Ford narrated an ad for Jeep. Martha Stewart dance around for Skechers. Morgan Freeman's dulcet tones grace a homes.com ad. Everywhere you looked, there were celebrities pushing products, and most of those celebs were on the older side. Neil it felt like this year's commercials were characterized by pretty safe nostalgic choices.
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Totally. And the one I want to focus on is the Michelob commercial that included Catherine O'Hara and Willem Dafoe playing pickleball. That was, I would say, probably the most successful example of a brand utilizing older celebrities because I think they also tapped into, you know, a bigger cultural moment that everyone's having with pickleball. But I don't know if it's good for pickleball to be associated with beer because if they want to take themselves seriously as a sport, you maybe want to be associated with hydration, drinks water, Gatorade instead of beer. So I don't know how, you know, the pickleball community is feeling about this.
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Yeah, you know, that small sport, the NFL never associate itself as beer, so I totally see where you're coming from there. Neil I do think that most of these ads were also in development during the last presidential election, so no one really knew what was going to come later down the pipeline. So they kind of chose safer, less controversial things, which is always what they do for the Super Bowl. But this year especially, I think they're like, let's, let's reference a time in the past, let's reference nostalgia, let's reference these older celebrities because that's about as safe in middle as a road as you can play it. One ad that didn't play it safe though, was Doritos. It was this short ad featuring aliens trying to abduct a Doritos bag. And it was funny. We both chuckled at it when we saw it at our watch party. And it turns out that the part of the reason for its edgier vibe was that it was fan made. Doritos ran a contest where normal people could create a spot for the big game. After a round of fan voting, Abduction, which was the ad's name, won the prize, sending its two directors to the Super bowl and $1 million richer. Neil it did feel like in a year where a lot of brands were playing it safe, Doritos ad stood out because of that.
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It did. It had a very strong narrative arc, which I appreciated. It felt like it was telling a story. And I'm not sure if I'm sitting in working in an ad agency now. I'm not sure that I can, you know, do anything that much better than what these content creators, the people who won this contest, can do. So this user generated is user generated ad. And how much did they get? They got paid like a million bucks.
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A
A million dollars?
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Yeah. Okay, well, that's probably what you're going to pay an ad agency. So maybe crowdsourcing is going to be more prevalent going forward because that was a great ad.
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And it was smart too because they had three finalists and they kind of put them all out on their social media. So they kind of got triple bang for their buck. They got three ads made. They only had to pay $1 million to the eventual creator. And it was just trusting creators always leads to a better product, I think. By the way, these aren't just some no name filmmakers. One of the creators, Nate Norrell, he's got 6.2 million followers on TikTok. He is a filmmaker, so it's not like he just picked up a camera for the first time, you know, one million bucks. Another ad that turned heads this year came from Nike. Nike's been on a rough run recently. Its stock is down about 35% over the last year. It's losing ground to brands like on and Hoka. Desperate times call for desperate measures. So last night was the first time in 27 years that Nike ran a Super bowl ad. It leaned on stars from women's sports to spark a brand revival. Its 62nd spot featured people like Caitlin Clark, Asia Wilson, Sha'Carri Richardson. In an earnings call back in December, Neil Nike said it would be investing more in marketing to try to get some of its swag back, some of its aura Back. That ad last night was a step in the right direction.
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Yeah. In 2021, Nike spent $3.1 billion on marketing. In 2024, they spent $4.3 billion on marketing. That also included a lot around the Olympics. And now they have the super bowl ad, their first since 1998. They're tapping into larger cultural conversations about the rise in women's sports. So I think that was a very well received ad, and maybe Nike is getting its marketing mojo back a little bit.
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And I watched it this morning, and I did get chills. It was Led Zeppelin using the background, too. It just did hit really well. It wasn't just women's sports, too, specifically women's basketball. For women's basketball players featured in it. They think that the meteoric rise of women's basketball, they just want to ride the coattails of it, essentially by elevating, you know, these players and these women. The final ad trend that we have to mention, flying facial hair. Two different brands, Pringles and Little Caesars, came up with essentially the exact same concept. Facial hair of some famous people uproots itself from men's faces and flies around, freaking people out. And Little Caesar's ad actor, Eugene Levy bites into some piece and he likes it so much, his famous eyebrows lift off from his face and fly around like a big hairy insect. Then Pringles follow that up by showing the equally famous mustaches of Nick Offerman, James Harden, and Andy Reid lifting off to fly around as well. The similarities were uncanny. I think it speaks to my earlier point about ads playing it rather safe this year that two ad agencies came up with the same concept for two different brands.
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Do you think this was a coincidence?
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I think it is a coincidence because you can go back to Super Bowl's past, and similar things have happened in 2021. Two advertisers, indeed. And Guaranteed Rate actually used the same exact clip of stock footage showing this man carrying a kid on his back. So it just happens. Like these ad agencies, you know, some of the similar people work at both, so I can see how it happens, which I think, again, just props to Doritos, because let the fans make an ad. Let's do something different. You will never end up doing the same ad as another ad agency if you let fans do it. So I thought it was very funny. People were scratching their heads saying, are they related? I think it truly was just a coincidence.
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All right, so overall, the commercials, you at the top of the show, you said they were a down year. But to be honest, I feel like every year we say, this is a little disappointing. So every year we say that the commercials did not live up to the hype. And I think we just have to acknowledge that they're never going to and that 90% of them are going to be commercials. And there's going to be so many celebrities doing things that aren't particularly interesting. There will be a few standouts, there'll be a few duds that everyone is talking about. So I think, I think that's just. We have to arrange our priors to be. This is what the, this is what the commercials are. They're commercials. It's Monday once again, and as per tradition, here are the big events you should know about this week. A massive AI conference begins today in Paris where world leaders and top tech bosses will meet to hammer out the thorny geopolitics of this rapidly advancing technology. The Artificial Intelligence Action Summit is basically the Met gala for tech, and the invite list proves it. OpenAI Sam Altman, Google, Sundar Pichai, Microsoft President Brad Smith and world leaders including Justin Trudeau of Canada, Narendra Modi of India, Jermyn Chancellor olaf Schultz, and U.S. vice President J.D. vance. You can bet discussions will revolve around Deep Sea, China's surprisingly capable AI model and the Trump administration's more lax approach to regulating AI.
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A
Yeah, things will definitely be what do we do with Deep Seek? What do we do about Deep Seek? Also, what's the most effective way to work with the current administration? He wants to, you know, strip some of those regulations away without, you know, sacrificing safety. And I do think that last point will be a big talking point. How do you deal with the risks associated with AI without stunting progress? Apparently Sam Altman is going to give a speech related to that topic as well. So safety, Deep Seek, what to do with Trump. Those seems to be the main themes here.
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B
Wall street has no time to nurse a Super bowl hangover with lots happening on the economic calendar. On Wednesday, we'll get the January inflation report, which will certainly be a big deal given tariffs and eggs and what it means for the Fed's interest rate plans. Plus, lots more earnings are on the way, including McDonald's and Coca Cola, which really should do their report together.
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A
I know they said. I am just curious to see if Uncle Grimace has made a market. He was just rolled out last week, so I don't think the Shamrock Shake is going to impact this quarter reports of earnings. But look forward to, you know, next quarter to see if Uncle Grimace leaves his mark.
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B
All Right. Friday is Valentine's Day, and if you're just learning this information, it might already be too late. But if you're locked out of a dinner reservation, at least there are ways to get back at your ex. Zoos around the country have rolled out fundraisers that let you take revenge on the one who got away. A $10 donation to the San Antonio Zoo will allow you to name a cockroach after your ex before it's served to one of the zoo's animals. For lunch at the Columbus Zoo and Aquarium in Ohio, they'll name a superworm after your ex that will be fed to its sloth bears. And if you get in before Wednesday, they'll even send you a clip of the bear devouring the worm. Toby, I love this tradition.
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A
I love this tradition. But if you're an accent, you get a video of your feeding a superworm to a sloth bear, you're like, I think you feel pretty good. Like, I still live so rent free in your head that you're paying, you know, aquariums and zoos to feed me to their animals. I don't know. I think that makes you feel pretty good as the ex.
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B
I don't think the ex gets it. You get it.
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A
Yeah, but you can get the. Oh, yeah, I guess you wouldn't said it.
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B
You get it. But if you're extremely You. Yes, if. If you get the video and then you send it to your ex and say, this is what I think of you. I think they are living rent free in your head. And maybe, you know, you should do a little self ev valuation there. But I think it's a great tradition that zoos do and they raise a lot of money for upkeep and things like that. Okay, let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful start to the week. For any questions, comments, or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. And if you're enjoying the show, share it with a friend, family member, or coworker. Maybe it's an early valentine. You know what? Don't spend any time thinking about it. Just listen to Toby and do what he instructs.
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A
Neil, you actually read my mind. I want you to share today's pod with someone you want to be your valentine. Yeah, you're a little late. Yes, the podcast is the most romantic thing to ever share, but still sugar shot.
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Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Eugenia Ogu is our technical director. Scoop Star Darius is on audio. Just got an email from hair and makeup. Going to be in at, like, 10 today. All right. Can't blame you. Devin Emery is our chief content officer, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
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A
Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.