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Americans Won’t Quit... Their Jobs & Spotify Has First Profitable Year, Ever
00:31:30
US workers stay put at their jobs & Spotify finally makes profit
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- [00:00]
Toby Howell
Hey, Fidelity. How can I remember to invest every month? With the Fidelity app, you can choose a schedule and set up recurring investments in stocks and ETFs. Huh, that sounds easier than I thought. You got this?
- [00:15]
Neal Freyman
Yeah, I do.
- [00:17]
Toby Howell
Now, where did I put my keys? You will find them where you left them. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member nyse, SIPC.
- [00:31]
Neal Freyman
Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
- [00:34]
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
- [00:35]
Neal Freyman
Today, the U.S. china trade war has kicked off and Barbie is caught in the crossfire.
- [00:41]
Toby Howell
Then employment sections on LinkedIn might be looking a little thinner these days as job hopping gets rarer and rarer. It's Wednesday, February 5th. Let's ride. Neil, There's a saying my parents used to tell me, do as I say, not as I do. The AI company Anthropic is telling its prospective employees something similar. According to 404 Media, the company that runs one of the biggest AI assistants in the world is asking potential applicants to agree that they won't use an AI assistant to aid in writing their applications. While we encourage people to use AI systems during the role to help them work faster and more effectively, please do not use AI assistance during the application process. The application says we also want to evaluate your non AI assisted communication skills. Please indicate yes if you have read and agree. Neal Pretty ironic.
- [01:37]
Neal Freyman
Very ironic. Very funny. But what if Claude did write a cover letter for Anthropic? Financial Times asked Claude to do it, and I'm going to read a few excerpts and I want to tell everyone to ask you if you'd hire me. Dear Anthropic Hiring Team, When I first encountered Claude and learned about the philosophy behind its development, something clicked. Here was a company that wasn't just chasing the next big AI breakthrough, but actually stopped to ask, how do we do this right? Yadda yadda yadda. I'd love to join a team where getting it right matters more than getting it. First, let's talk about how I could contribute to Anthropic's mission.
- [02:13]
Toby Howell
I actually didn't hate that whatsoever. And I think you're right. If Anthropic succeeds at its goal of creating, you know, a chat bot that can mimic human that is indistinguishable from the human that it has achieved its goal. So it is like this catch 22 situation that they find itself in.
- [02:29]
Neal Freyman
So that is better than I could do.
- [02:31]
Toby Howell
I know, Neil, you are absolutely hired. I think it was better. You read my cover letter too, so you know that that is Better than whatever I produced. Now a word from our sponsor, Wise Business. All right, Neil, I've got a confession.
- [02:43]
Neal Freyman
Is this about the time you borrowed my charger and it mysteriously never returned?
- [02:47]
Toby Howell
I will plead the fifth on charger gate. This is bigger. I've decided to start a business.
- [02:51]
Neal Freyman
Cool. What's the business?
- [02:53]
Toby Howell
I don't know yet.
- [02:54]
Neal Freyman
What?
- [02:54]
Toby Howell
I haven't figured that part out yet. All I know is it's going global.
- [02:58]
Neal Freyman
Of course it is.
- [02:59]
Toby Howell
Multiple continents, multiple currencies, multiple whatever else is businesses need. But I'm not stressing about it because I've got Wise on my side.
- [03:08]
Neal Freyman
The account for doing business in other currencies.
- [03:10]
Toby Howell
Wise makes it easy to pay suppliers and vendors and multiple currencies. No hidden fees, no inflated exchange rates, no stress.
- [03:18]
Neal Freyman
Perfect for visionaries like yourselves. Now give me back my charger.
- [03:22]
Toby Howell
If you are ready to take your business global or just dream about it like me, visit wise.com/business. That's wise.com/business the US job market is looking a lot like a banyan tree these days because more workers than ever are staying rooted in place. While job hopping was all the rage during the so called great resignation following the pandemic, these days the chance to upgrade to a better role is rare unless you work in the Lakers front office. Americans quit rate is down 11% from last year and 22% from 2022 as more people are opting to keep the job they have instead of venturing out into a tight labor market. It wasn't that long ago that it was just the opposite. The labor market was hot and workers were bopping around in search of better pay and more flexibility. Employers were happy to oblige because as they emerged from the pandemic they needed to hire up. But now the Wall Street Journal reports there are just 1.1 job openings per unemployed worker, down from a Recent high of 2 in March 2022. High paying office jobs have become especially scarce as tech and law have pulled back on hiring. Neal, as we sneak up on Friday's job report, I think it is safe to say that despite 47 consecutive months where the economy added jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate, this is a pretty stuck labor market we are in right now.
- [04:43]
Neal Freyman
It is a labor market that is bending but not breaking. As you mentioned, the unemployment rate is low. People are still hiring, but the number of job openings is much lower than it was the great resignation of 2021 and 2022 where people were job hopping because they could get bigger salaries at every other Place just seems like very much a distant memory. 1.1 Job openings for every unemployed worker. That is half of, of what it was at its peak. So we're in a cooling labor market now where if you're laid off, which we should mention has stayed steady, it's not. Layoffs are not increasing. That rate has stayed the same at a pretty low level for four months. The thing is, if you are one of those people laid off, finding a new job, especially in professional services in those high wage white collar positions is getting much tougher.
- [05:35]
Toby Howell
And remember, the Fed's, you know, decisions to raise rates definitely has something to do with it. The goal is to, you know, tame down hiring so you can tame down inflation. So that has cooled the race for talent. But then also, you just look around at what's happening in the workforce. Metta plans to cut 5% of its workforce this month. Okta, another tech company, is cutting 3%. Estee Lauder says it's cutting up to 7,000 workers. Salesforce said it is laying off a thousand workers, but then hiring more salesmen to push AI products, which is kind of indicative of what is happening in, in general. And then just look at the federal government right now. They offered, you know, this buyout program to the entire federal government, excluding some, you know, defense employees and others, but 20,000 employees took it. That's just 1% of the federal workforce. And they are saying that they might have to conduct layoffs to get people to leave. So if that doesn't show kind of the mentality of a lot of people in labor market, I think it illustrates it perfectly.
- [06:36]
Neal Freyman
Right. So axios reported that 20,000 federal workers have accepted this deferred. Deferred resignation. The deadline is tomorrow, so we could see whether that number creeps up. The White house was targeting 5 to 10% of the entire federal workforce of 2.3 million. Remember, this is a DOGE program from Elon Musk endorsed by President Trump to reduce substantially the amount of federal workers. It doesn't look like that many people have taken it. 1% of the federal workforce, 20,000 people. So we'll keep an eye on that as this deadline comes up on Thursday. While the U.S. canada and Mexico pulled back from the brink of a trade war on Monday, a trade skirmish has still broken out between America and China. Midnight on Tuesday, the Trump administration slapped 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports. And a sign of its displeasure over fentanyl shipments into the country. China waited all but a few seconds to punch back, hitting US Products like gas, coal and farm machinery with retaliatory tariffs. It also launched an antitrust investigation into Google and banned the export of some key minerals used in high tech products. In all though, it was a carefully calibrated response by Beijing, one designed to gently prod the bear, not poke it. The retaliatory tariffs apply to just $14 billion worth of American products, which is a fraction of the tariffs the US placed on Chinese goods. It appears to be an attempt by Xi Jinping to show he can spar with Trump, while acknowledging this is just the first volley in a much longer negotiation around trade and other disputes the two countries have. Still, while it won't have the impact of a potential North American trade war, China is the US Third largest trading partner and these two way tariffs will have some impacts. For instance, yesterday Mattel said it was considering raising the price of Barbie and Hot Wheels toys to offset the tariffs. 40% of Mattel's products are sourced in China.
- [08:32]
Toby Howell
Right. It does seem like this response was very calculated because, you know, China wants to flex its muscles, say like, hey, we can also retaliate when we need to, but if you look at the goods that they're actually slapped these tariffs on, it does not, it's not going to affect US trade relations with China as much as, you know, a much broader push would be. For instance, I mean, some of these tariffs are go on natural gas exports, but the US exported 2.3% of its total natural gas to China in 2023. And then also some of them affect vehicles, but China imported less than 110,000 vehicles from the US last year. So again, mostly it is to, you know, make headlines, show that they are prepared to retaliate if the U.S. you know, applies tariffs as they have. But they are not something that wants to, you know, totally remake global trade.
- [09:22]
Neal Freyman
Right, because this is part of a much broader negotiation between the two countries. What's happening is basically the US and China are building the most powerful deck of cards that they have so that when they go into the casino to have a card game, they can lay down the best hand possible for whatever concessions they might want from the other country. They can say, okay, well you want TikTok. Well, I want tariffs off of, I want tariffs off of coal or I want, I want export controls off of tech. So there are so many issues going on between these two countries from the Panama Canal, which we talked about yesterday, to TikTok, to working on the Russia, Ukraine war, to trade as well. So this is, they're building the deck of cards so they can go into the negotiating room and just play the best possible hand.
- [10:09]
Toby Howell
I think you're trying to say a Pokemon deck because I don't know any casinos that lets you bring in your own deck of cards. I need to go visit those casinos though. But I think you are right. They're trying to build the best Yu Gi oh deck or you know, magic the Gathering deck, not just 52 cards. But you're right.
- [10:25]
Neal Freyman
I played outside.
- [10:26]
Toby Howell
I know I could. I could tell you did. But you are totally right. One final point on this is that China does have a very export dependent economy. It is kind of dealing with its own issues domestically of a real estate bubble of young people not being hired. So it doesn't want to go full trade war in the US because it still needs us to buy its goods and its Pokemon cards. So usually on Fridays, Neil and I take a look at the market and pick one stock that's done really well and one stock that was a big disappointment. But since the markets have been pretty crazy already, we decided to break the stock of the week Dog of the Week glass in case of emergency early to bring you three stocks of the week on a Wednesday to start. And really the impetus for this whole segment it is Palantir, the stock that just won't quit going up. It finished up 24% yesterday after it reported better than expected earnings for the fourth quarter and raised revenue guidance going forward. CEO Alex Karp attributes the company's hockey stick growth to its use of AI. Our business results continue to astound, demonstrating our deepening position at the center of the AI revolution. Karp said our early insights surrounding the commoditization of large language models have evolved from theory to fact. Most of Palantir's revenue comes from military deals with the U.S. government. But its commercial unit, where it works with normal Fortune 500 businesses, grew 64% from a year ago to bring in $343 million. Neil, it is now the best performing stock in the S&P 500 in the young 2025 year while also being the top performing stock in the index.
- [11:59]
Neal Freyman
Last year investors were pretty hype about what Alex Karp said about his relationship with the Trump administration too. He said that Doge federal budget cuts would actually be good for the company, which I guess is a little confusing because they get a lot of their revenue from government contracts. But he said, quote, disruption at the end of the day exposes things that aren't working. There will be ups and downs. There's a revolution. Some people are going to get Their heads cut off. We're expecting to see really unexpected things and to win. So this guy has always been a bit of an iconoclast in Silicon Valley. They move their company to Colorado from Silicon Valley because he didn't really mesh with the culture there. But he is extremely bullish going forward. Investors are best company in the S&P 500 last year. Already the best company this year. It is a rocket ship. Our next stock of the week is Metta. Yesterday, Zuck's baby closed higher for the 12th consecutive trading session, which is its longest winning streak ever. Over the past two weeks, it's added more than $235 billion to its market cap, catapulting it to a valuation of almost $1.8 trillion. Nothing's a METTA with this company. Right now, it's firing on all cylinders. Last week, Metta reported record fourth quarter revenue jumping 21% from a year earlier, which has allowed it to spend tens of billions of dollars developing AI products. Speaking of, Metta was the rare company to get a boost from Deep Seq's breakthrough because like the Chinese rival, it too has made its AI models open source. So Deep Seek success is seen as a validation of that strategy. Toby, I remember the days everyone was making fun of Metta for trying to make the metaverse happen. Zuck has managed to pivot from that pivot to something that appears to be far more lucrative.
- [13:43]
Toby Howell
Yeah, man, I was. It was coming down to the wire yesterday because it needed to post a gain for the 12th consecutive session to set a record. It finished up just 1%, but it did finish up and I do think you're right, that matters. AI strategy is aging very well. You mentioned Deep Seek matters. Open Source model is also open source, which a lot of analysts say they look very competent when compared to the rest of big tech. The rest of the magnificent, magnificent seven who all went closed source, they're all trying to develop their own proprietary models. They think that open source is the way that you can innovate quicker. Plus, also, Met is huge. And that their chat bot is going to be the most widely used chat bot just by virtue of its distribution, just by virtue of the fact that billions of people use Instagram, use Facebook. So it is sitting pretty on the AI race is continuing to plow money. They've earmarked $65 billion towards, you know, investments in 2025 and investors are loving it. Finally, our last midweek stock of the week is Spotify. Spotify is an 18 year old company able to vote and drink in most countries. And yet, despite its age, it had never once reported a profitable year until last year. Spotify posted its first full year Profit ever in 2024, showing that the finance side of the business is finally catching up to its global influence. Spotify made big bet after big bet to build new product features like podcasts and e books, which dragged on its profitability, but set it up for success in the future. Toss in some efforts over the past two years to focus on efficiency and monetization and you have a recipe for profitability that investors have been waiting for since the company went public in 2018. Neil this has been a company that was much maligned for plowing so much money into podcasts and this and that, but now it's all growing up and making money and popped 10% yesterday.
- [15:32]
Neal Freyman
Yeah, just encourage people to think about when they open up Spotify now. Are they listening to music or are they listening to a podcast? Are you listening to an audiobook? There are so many different ways to consume audio in the Spotify app. That is exactly what their strategy was set forth a few years ago and they're executing on it because many years ago people were like, Spotify is just not going to be a good business. Every single time you stream something, they have to pay a royalty to the music business. And that is a bad business model because your costs grow as your users grow. And so, you know, very few people thought that Spotify could square the circle and they absolutely have done. The bad problem for the rest of us is that when this strategy has worked, it means that Spotify is going to raise prices because they did that last year for the first time in a long time, they saw very few defections. Not good to hear that. So that means that we probably will see another price hike in the future.
- [16:32]
Toby Howell
Up next, Neil and I talk eggs.
- [16:36]
Neal Freyman
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- [17:30]
Toby Howell
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- [17:37]
Neal Freyman
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- [17:48]
Toby Howell
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- [17:55]
Neal Freyman
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- [18:02]
Toby Howell
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- [18:14]
Neal Freyman
Mobile For Details Yesterday we led the show by sharing the grim news that Waffle House was adding a 50 cent surcharge for every egg they sell. If only it were that over easy. Eg Slingers everywhere are being stung by record high prices, leading not only to increased costs for consumers, but also shortages and limits on how many cartons can be bought at a time. In Chicago, some grocers like Aldi, have limited purchases to two cartons of eggs. Whole Foods in New York, where prices have reached up to $12 for a dozen cage free eggs, have placed a three carton purchase limit. A Bloomberg reporter that tried to find eggs at a shop right in Brooklyn last weekend found the shelves almost completely bare and the cartons that remained were priced at about $1 per egg. The egg crisis is also forcing restaurants, not just Waffle House, to adapt. The chain Biscuit Belly is planning to swap out carton eggs with liquid eggs for breakfast staples such as omelets and scrambled eggs, but not for sunny side up. That sounds gross and impossible. Toby this is a real shock to the ecosystem. Wholesale prices for a dozen dozen large eggs in the Midwest are now about seven times their price from two years ago.
- [19:26]
Toby Howell
That same reporter went to a nearby Costco too and found that they were out of everything except for quail eggs. So it really is becoming, you know, a shortage across the board. This outbreak hit grocery stores actually the hardest because a lot of the farms impacted by this wave of bird flu supplied the retail sector. So you are seeing it filter down through grocery stores now into restaurants as well. So it is just crazy the prices that we're seeing, I mean, showing up to a Whole foods and seeing $12 for a dozen eggs, it is just very jarring right now. And the issue is that people still love eggs. People are, are absolutely, you know, trying to find a low cost protein source, but their main low cost protein source is now getting more costly than ever, which is leading to just like these bare pictures of, of, of grocery stores that we're seeing kind of flood social media as people try to hoard and stock up on eggs.
- [20:21]
Neal Freyman
And it's leading to people going in search of alternatives, not just restaurants substituting carton eggs with liquid eggs. But you've seen an uptick perhaps in people going to the farmer's market and morning brew slack blows up with people saying, hey, I got $4 from the $4 eggs from the farmer's market. Look at me, I'm so cool. Also, we've seen an uptick and this has been a trend over the past few years. The number of people having a backyard chicken coop as a way to cope with the rising egg costs. We saw that rise during COVID and is still continued. It's very interesting if you are thinking about having an egg coop in your backyard. It's something I would consider, but these startup costs are quite high. Can run you about 20, $500. And make sure to check in with your local zoning board too, because your town may not allow for a chicken cooperation in your backyard. Now, a few years ago, maybe it was a decade ago in my town in western Massachusetts, there was a huge drama about someone trying to put chickens in their backyard, their neighbors saying absolutely no way. It went to the town board. So it can.
- [21:25]
Toby Howell
Who won?
- [21:26]
Neal Freyman
Who won? I don't remember. I hope I'm guessing the chicken person did not win.
- [21:30]
Toby Howell
I absolutely have thought about raising chickens too, because my previous roommates, we had one of those machines that can process food waste and turn it into chicken feed. So we're like, wait, we have chicken feed here now? Should we buy a chicken coop and raise chickens? We did not check with our zoning board, but we looked up the price of like a smart chicken coop. It was $15,000.
- [21:51]
Neal Freyman
It's not worth it.
- [21:52]
Toby Howell
Obviously you can get a cheaper one than that, but it does. I mean, the grand point here is that it's usually even though you think you're saving money by raising chickens, there's a lot of other costs that you're not thinking about and a lot of headaches that you're not thinking about as well. But all the power to you, if you do want to, you know, raise some chickens.
- [22:07]
Neal Freyman
Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. President Trump stunned the world last night when he floated the idea that the US should take long term ownership of the devastated Gaza Strip and turn it into a, quote, riviera of the Middle East. At a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said he'd encourage the 2 million Palestinians who live in Gaza to leave for neighboring countries so the US could rebuild the enclave and create jobs for, quote, the world's people. He did not rule out putting American troops on the ground there. After picking their jaws up off the floor, critics from around the world called this plan ethnic cleansing, incomprehensible, illegal, and indicative of a president who only thinks in real estate deal terms. It was also resoundingly dismissed by Palestinian leaders and major Middle Eastern powers, including Saudi Arabia, an influential force in the region.
- [22:57]
Toby Howell
And if you think about what Trump campaigned on and what the role of Doge is in the government, it is about shrinking America's role abroad. But then you look at this announcement, which shows a worldview much closer to expansionism than to isolationism. It goes against, you know, other words and other actions from the administration as well, because he has talked about a push to own Greenland, he's talked about a push to own the Panama Canal, he's throwing barbs at Canada about making it the 51st state. So even though he campaigned on this idea of isolationism, it does look like expansionism is something that is on his mind as well. Also, it is worth mentioning that there's not a ton of legal standing that would allow the United States to unilaterally take control over someone else's territory. Not even to mention this forcible relocation of entire population, which would be a violation of international as well. Plus, there's, it's just a gargantuan logistical and financial challenge. So these were some of the question marks around this, you know, press conference that he held yesterday. Apple wants you to hang out with people more in a release an app yesterday called Apple Invites, which lets you create and share invitations with your friends. Instead of a chunky text message or a Facebook invite, the idea is you create a quick digital invitation that when it's shared, gives recipients all the info they need about an event, the RSVP button, and adds it to their calendar. Now, obviously, this straightforward and easy to use invitation center fits in nicely to Apple's closed ecosystem. For instance, you can create a photo album for people or add a music playlist that uses Apple photos or music. And Android users who have tested out say it's pretty obvious that you aren't getting the whole experience. But still, Neil, who wants to hang out with Android users anyway?
- [24:43]
Neal Freyman
Wouldn't be me. The one, the one company that got there that was a little rankled by this announcement was a company called Particle. I think a lot of people in New York know part of Full, which is, you know, it's an invite app, very similar to what Apple introduced. They were very angry. They posted on X the developer guide for Apple, saying which which states copycats, come up with your own ideas. We know you have them, so make yours come to life. They were angry that Apple was ripping off their app, which it does seem like Apple was kind of doing.
- [25:18]
Toby Howell
Absolutely. It was definitely what they were doing. I do think though, that this is something that will probably catch on because everyone's had the problem. I saw some people joking too on saying that this just destroyed the first app idea that every college student has. Like, man, I would love an app that just lets me hang out with my friends. Easier to do an invitation now. It just kind of crushed a lot of those dreams. I think it will be pretty popular. McDonald's is bringing back the Shamrock Shake and it's hoping another freaky little McDonald's Land character will power sales again. After the success of the Grimace shake, McDonald's said that the namesake behind the viral purple milkshake is reuniting with his long lost Irish uncle, Uncle O Grimacey, to promote the newest Shamrock Green dairy treat. Uncle Grimacey was originally used back in 1975 to promote the shake, but hasn't been seen since the mid-80s. The hope is a little magic from the past will be enough to boost traffic to its stores and reverse a sales slump tied to the CDC linking a fatal E. Coli outbreak to its Quarter Pounders back in October. Maybe uncle oh Grimacey is the answer to all of McDonald's problems.
- [26:25]
Neal Freyman
Lots of lore around uncle oh Grimacey. Rumor has, and I should say this is a rumor, Uncle Grimace wasn't used publicly after an actor who played the mascot in Philly made comments in support of the ira. Now, there's no evidence of this, but Grimace has not been seen for many decades. Now he's back to promote the Shamrock Shake. And what is the Shamrock Shake? Well, it is an Irish dessert made with reduced fat vanilla ice cream, light whipped cream, and special Shamrock Shake syrup. Have you had it?
- [26:56]
Toby Howell
I've had it. It is good. It tastes a little bit like mouthwash or like Listerine to me because it's so, you know, that wintry green flavor. But I grew up having it and I probably will have it again.
- [27:07]
Neal Freyman
If the Chiefs beat the Eagles on Sunday, it'd be their third consecutive super bowl win, something no team has done before and fans would expect to able to buy shirts and hats with the term 3 Pete on it, which is a classic phrase used in the sports world for three consecutive trophies. Not so fast. Turns out the Miami Heat team president Pat Riley has owned the trademark to the term three peat since 1988 after the Lakers won their second straight title. Luckily, he's graciously allowed the NFL to use the term three peat if the Chiefs win this Sunday, probably in exchange for a large sum. The man was a visionary.
- [27:44]
Toby Howell
He was a visionary and it is very funny too, because he filed for that trademark. They didn't win, but he did get the trademark. He also had the trademark ready to use on the 2014 Miami Heat jerseys. They lost, actually. So he has been trying to use this phrase for his own team for his own team for years now, but the only time that he's cashed in is when other teams actually use it. He actually told ESPN in 2005 that he made around $300,000 off of the trademark after the first Chicago Bulls 3 Pete. He also cashed in on the second Bulls 3 peat and then when the New York Yankees won three straight World Series from 1998 to 2000, he won. And then he cashed in on the trademark. And then the Lakers as well when they won three consecutive titles, he cashed in on that. So he could stand to win. Or I keep saying he's winning, but he could stand to earn more than $1 million if the Chiefs do win that Super Bowl. But if you are a superstitious chief fan, maybe you're saying, I don't know if I want anything to do with Pat Rally, because clearly his own teams never got over the hump.
- [28:48]
Neal Freyman
Let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Wednesday. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. And if you're enjoying the show, pass it along to a friend, family member or co worker who's trying to make sense of all the news happening right now. For some advice and guidance on who specifically to share with, here's Life coach.
- [29:09]
Toby Howell
Toby I tell you what, let's keep it simple today. Neal, you don't need a fancy app to share me. Just copy and paste the link into a group chat or an email or a smoke signal. Any platform agnostic way. We're okay with no copycat apps from Apple required.
- [29:25]
Neal Freyman
That didn't sound simple to me. Let's run Roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Uchenawa Ogu is our technical director. Scoop Stardaris is on audio, hair and makeup. Would never think about job hopping. Devin Emery is our chief Content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
- [29:45]
Toby Howell
Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.