Morning Brew Daily: "Apple Debuts New iPhone 17 Air & Dairy Milk is So Back"

Date: September 10, 2025
Hosts: Neal Freyman and Toby Howell

Episode Overview

In this lively and knowledgeable episode, Neal and Toby break down Apple’s much-anticipated September event—focusing on the debut of the ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air—and explore why dairy milk is making a surprising comeback against plant-based alternatives. They also tackle the unexpected downward revision in US job numbers, mass protests shaking Nepal, and consumer culture stories from Cracker Barrel’s backtracking to the Girl Scouts’ new cookie.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Zodiac Signs Aren’t What You Think (00:51–02:16)

• Segment Overview: Neal and Toby open with a fun detour on how today’s star constellations don’t match our zodiac signs.
• Key Insight: The zodiac system is 2,000 years out of date, doesn’t match celestial reality, and technically, there should be thirteen signs.
• Memorable Moment:
  • Toby (01:29): "Hope you didn’t make your zodiac sign your entire personality because it might be wrong."
• Brief Banter: Neal comments on zodiac contradictions, and Toby admits to being an Aquarius, not a Pisces.

2. Apple Event: The New iPhone 17 (Air) and More (02:36–08:13)

The Big Unveiling (02:36–04:20)

• iPhone 17 Air: Ultra-thin (less than 6mm), single rear camera (now two times optical zoom), A19 chip, and all-day battery.
  • Price: $999—$200 more than the basic iPhone 17, $100 less than the Pro.
• Standard iPhone 17: No huge redesign, but revolutionary front camera: much wider field of view, square sensor for "landscape selfies."
• Other Announcements:
  • New AirPods: Translation features, heart rate monitoring from the ear.
  • Updated Apple Watch: Sleep scores and hypertension detection.
• AI Notably Absent: Only minor AI upgrades (AirPods translation); rebuilt Siri postponed to Spring 2026.

Panel Reaction & Analysis (04:20–07:17)

• Neal: Skeptical of Air’s appeal—notes Bloomberg’s Dave Lee called it “one of the stranger products Apple has ever released.”
  • "What do people want with their phones right now? They want a better camera and improved battery life. And what does the Air sacrifice at the altar of skinniness? Those two features, exactly." (04:23)
• Toby: Raises the question—will people pay a premium for thinness?
• Brian McCullough (Tech Brew Ride Home - Guest): Introduces the Osborne effect—consumers hesitant to upgrade now because a foldable iPhone is expected next year, followed by a 20th-anniversary edition in 2027.
  • "Is the iPhone Air sexy enough to get you to pull the trigger, or do you sit on your hands and wait for the foldable maybe?" (05:32)
• Consensus: The Air may simply be a “newness play” and a precursor to future foldable technology.
• Toby: Draws parallel to the MacBook Air—initial skepticism over price and specs, but it became a bestseller.

Apple's Recent Performance (07:17–08:13)

• Stock Surge: Up 38% since April; two big wins—tariffs backed off, and $20B yearly Google deal to be default search engine allowed to continue.
• Stock Drop Post-Event: Typical for iPhone launches; "investors always sell the news."
• Uncertainty: Will consumers actually buy the new Air this fall?

3. The Case of the Vanishing Jobs (08:13–12:04)

BLS Job Growth Revision (08:13–10:37)

• Key News: The US economy added 911,000 fewer jobs last year than reported; only 850,000 jobs added vs. initially reported 1.7 million.
• Annual Benchmarking: BLS’s annual check reveals the jobs report overstated growth for the second year in a row.
• Impact: White House fired BLS top official earlier this year over such revisions.

Why the Miss? (09:39–10:37)

• Challenged Models: BLS models, based on pre-COVID trends, didn’t account for the boom in new business formation and other post-pandemic shifts.
  • "Coming out of COVID, just some weird stuff was happening in terms of people ... opening so many new businesses ... not factored into these particular models." (09:59)

Policy Impact & Fed Response (10:37–12:04)

• Fed Officials Alerted: Christopher Waller (potential next Fed chair) referenced this “benchmark revision” as argument for a rate cut.
• Jerome Powell (Fed Chair): Predicted “level of employment will be revised down materially…” at Jackson Hole last month.
• Market Response: Stocks hit all-time highs despite the news; signaled markets expected the revision.

4. Mass Protests Rock Nepal (12:04–16:16)

• Unrest: Gen Z protesters, frustrated by corruption and nepotism (“Nepo Kids”), set buildings ablaze, 22 killed, and multiple resignations.
• Catalyst: Social media ban (applied, then lifted), sparking broader anger over economic opportunity and government corruption.
• Economic Backdrop: Official youth unemployment ~13% (likely higher due to informal work), remittances = 25% of GDP.
  • Toby (14:21): “Just a powder keg of a lot of things coming together…”
• Mass Migration: 2 million Nepalese abroad, 741,000 left last year alone.
• Corruption Example: $71M embezzled during new airport construction.
  • Neal (15:18): “The key point is that they’re leaving. And...this is because government officials are enriching themselves and their families by embezzling all kinds of things.”

5. Milk Makes a Comeback (17:33–21:43)

“Got Milk?” Revival (17:33–19:08)

• California’s Milk Board relaunches iconic campaign.
• Whole Milk Upswing: 3.2% increase in 2024 (only second uptick since 1970s); dairy milk sales up 1.9%.
• Alt-milk Falters: Plant-based milk sales down 5.9% (22:00).
• The 3 Ps Why Dairy’s Hot Again:
  • Protein – in vogue with wellness crowd.
  • Price – cheaper than alt-milks with consumers price-conscious.
  • Perception – real milk seen as less processed, more “natural.”

Oat & Almond Milk Woes (20:26–20:58)

• Toby: Alt-milk suffered the “streaming wars effect”—too many niches, consumer fatigue.
• Neal: Focus on simplicity—milk ingredient list is just “milk, while Oatly’s is ‘water’.”
  • "If you're looking at that and saying, I just want something clean to put in my body ... it's pretty easy to make a decision, at least in 2025." (20:30)
• Oatly’s Plummet: Stock down 98%, N.A. revenue down 10.6% YoY.

Dairy Category Boom (21:43)

• Value-Added Dairy: Greek yogurt, cottage cheese, kefir—sales up 8.2%.
• Cottage Cheese: “All-star”—up nearly 70% YoY; high protein driving resurgence.

6. Headlines Roundup (21:43–27:23)

US Education Decline (21:43–23:18)

• Senior Math/Reading: Record lows; only 20% could draw a conclusion from an essay.
• “Learning loss” preceded pandemic, worsened since.
  • Toby (23:18): “This so-called learning loss has been pretty broad, it’s been pretty substantial...just a broad-based decline.”

Cracker Barrel Backs Down (23:18–25:48)

• Remodel Pause: Cracker Barrel halts decluttering plans after social media backlash to logo change; plans to retain “old-timey charm.”
• Business Woes: Stock down 63% in 5 years, flat sales in 2024, aging customer base.
  • Neal (24:55): “They need to replenish that with younger customers … but they were beaten into submission.”

Girl Scouts’ New Cookie (25:48–27:23)

• Explore Mores: Rocky Road-inspired cookie replaces s’mores and Toast-Yays in 2026.
• Naming Trend: “Explorer” branding (alongside “Adventureful”).
  • Toby (27:23): “What’s wrong with Thin Mints though? Thin Mints…It’s still the goat, but they’re trying to get all New Age...just give me the old classics.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Toby on Zodiac Signs:
  "Hope you didn’t make your zodiac sign your entire personality because it might be wrong." (01:29)

• Neal on Apple’s iPhone Air:
  "What do people want with their phones right now? They want a better camera and improved battery life. And what does the Air sacrifice at the altar of skinniness? Those two features." (04:23)

• Brian McCullough (Guest) on Apple’s Strategy:
  "Is the iPhone Air sexy enough to get you to pull the trigger, or do you sit on your hands and wait for the foldable maybe?" (05:32)

• Toby on Alt-Milk Market:
  "To me, it's similar to the streaming wars...all these different, you know, options came on the market and fatigue set in." (19:08)

• Neal on Oat Milk Ingredients:
  "The first ingredient on oatly ... it's water. And if you're looking at that and saying, I just want something clean to put in my body...it’s pretty easy to make a decision, at least in 2025." (20:30)

• Neal on Nepal’s Situation:
  "The key point is that they’re leaving. And that's because government officials are enriching themselves and their families by embezzling all kinds of things." (15:18)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Zodiac Signs Reality Check: 00:51–02:16
• Apple iPhone 17 Air Launch and Analysis: 02:36–08:13
• US Job Growth Revision Explained: 08:13–12:04
• Nepal Youth Protests: 12:04–16:16
• Milk Comeback and Dairy Trends: 17:33–21:43
• Education Decline in America: 21:43–23:18
• Cracker Barrel Controversy: 23:18–25:48
• Girl Scouts’ New Cookie: 25:48–27:23

Tone & Style

Witty, friendly, and breezily intelligent—Neal and Toby mix sharp business and economic analysis with pop-culture savvy and fun banter, making even daunting headlines accessible and engaging.

Conclusion

This episode captures the zeitgeist of September 2025: flashy tech launches, economic uncertainty, global youth protest, a surprising return to real dairy, and the battle over nostalgia in American food culture. It's an insightful, fast-moving listen that blends data, expert opinions, and pop culture in classic Morning Brew Daily style.