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Apple Debuts New iPhone 17 Air & Dairy Milk is So Back
00:28:56
Apple needs the iPhone 17 Air to be a hit and Dairy Milk wants to make a comeback
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- [00:01]
A
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B
Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
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C
And I'm Toby Howell.
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B
Today, oopsie. Turns out the economy added half the amount of jobs last year than we thought.
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C
Then Apple revealed an ultra thin iPhone with a chunky price tag. It's Wednesday, September 10th. Let's ride.
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B
Anyone celebrating a birthday today, September 10th, you might consider yourself as the quintessential Virgo. Practical, analytical, hard working. There's just one problem. The actual constellation behind the sun today is not Virgo. It's Leo. The New York Times explained that your zodiac sign is in fact 2,000 years out of date. The signs were created over two millennia ago by the Babylonians based on their view of the stars. But because of astronomical phenomena like the Earth swabble, our view of the stars has shifted over time. Which means that zodiac signs no longer line up with the constellations that they're named after. Toby, I never saw you as a Pisces.
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C
Anyway, Neil, it is with great sadness, and I must tell you, I'm actually an Aquarius, not a Pisces. I did check for you as well. Technically you're a Leo, but based off the constellation behind the sun, when your birthday is, you're still a Leo. So congratulations. But there's one final reason why the 12 signs don't quite align with these zodiac constellations themselves. There's technically a 13th constellation along the Sun's path that is called. And I'm going to butcher this, but it's called Officious. Which means that there should have been 13 zodiac signs. No one really knows why the Babylonians did my boy of dirty. But yeah. Hope you didn't make your zodiac sign your entire personality because it might be wrong. And now a word from our sponsor. Indeed. Neil, how are job seekers supposed to make a connection with employers?
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B
Well, there's always indeed. They're utilizing AI powered solutions and the scale of their data to to accelerate and simplify both job hunting and hiring.
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C
Now that is something I'd like to hear more about.
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B
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C
To learn more, head to indeed futureworks.com/brew that's indeed futureworks.com/brew Apple held its annual September event yesterday, and the star of the show was the new Ozempic iPhone, otherwise known as the iPhone Air. Apple execs call this device impossibly thin, and they're not far off after unveiling a device that is less than 6 millimeters thick. The crowd seem to agree, giving the loudest reaction of the day. Despite its thin profile, it comes with a couple of bells and whistles, including a single rear camera that still manages to have two times optical zoom, Apple's new A19 chip and an all day battery. But less phone doesn't mean less money. It will start at $999 when it launches later this month, which which is $200 more than the standard iPhone 17 and just $100 less than the Pro version. As for that standard iPhone 17, it didn't get a massive redesign, but its front camera may be the most important update of the entire lineup. Apple gave it the widest field of view ever, nearly doubles last year in a square sensor so you don't have to rotate your iPhone to take a landscape selfie anymore. Believe it or not, that was what got the biggest year when it came to the 17 presentation. Apple also refreshed its watches and AirPods, adding health features like heart rate monitoring from your ears and sleep scores and hypertension detection from your wrists. But one thing was conspicuously absent throughout the event. AI Beyond a translation feature in the new AirPods, there was no major announcement with Apple saying it its rebuilt Siri won't arrive until spring of 2026, so Neil Apple made thinness and selfies the star of the show while leaving AI for another day. Kind of what we expected. But did it meet expectations?
- [04:21]
B
I'm not surprised that the Air did not get the biggest ovation of the because, as Bloomberg's Dave Lee put it, this is one of the stranger products Apple has ever released. What do people want with their phones right now? They want a better camera and they want improved battery life. And what does the AIR sacrifice at the altar of skinniness is those two features. Exactly. So why are they introducing something new that doesn't necessarily align with consumer behavior? Well, CCS Insights Ben would said it's literally just something new, he wrote. It has been a few years since Apple has Had new iPhones that you could put on the table in a coffee shop, meeting room or pub, and people would ask, is that the new iPhone? So maybe it's the reason that it's just something new, A new form factor, a new design is why Apple went ahead with it.
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C
I think the question of whether people will actually shell out the big bucks for a skinny iPhone is exactly right. Brian McCullough, who hosts Tech Brew Ride Home, a great daily morning brew show, if you're interested in tech, gave us his thoughts on if people will make the this upgrade.
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D
There's a concept in technology circles called the Osborne effect, and that is when a company announces a new product, but people don't buy it because they're anticipating the next product. They know that company is going to release next. We know that next year the first ever foldable iPhone is coming. And then in 2027, Apple is going to release some super fancy, redesigned, possibly all glass or curved glass iPhone to mark the 20th anniversary of the iPhone. So do you buy an iPhone now or wait for those fancier new phones you know are coming? Is the iPhone air sexy enough to get you to pull the trigger, or do you sit on your hands and wait for the foldable maybe?
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B
So I think Brian actually answered my question of why release an air and that's because of this foldable phone coming next year. One of the biggest challenges with foldables is packing all of this technology into a slim form factor. So maybe this is just Apple trying to prove that they can do this on the journey to a foldable phone coming next year.
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C
But I do think this newness factor that you've highlighted is something that Apple is trying to pursue with their cameras as well. Because one other feature is this dual camera recording, which is the ability to record from both the front and the rear cameras at the same time. That is a feature that you would show your friend. You go like, hey, check this out. I can film you and me at the same time. Or come here, let's take a selfie. I don't even have to move my phone. That is something that has a little bit of wow factor.
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B
And then I go, hey, is that the iPhone 17?
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C
Right? Hopefully. Ideally you say that. And then I do think that that is kind of the path that they're on. They're trying to do this massive three year refresh. Ifs the air the sexiest one of those, as Brian sort of put it. Who knows? But I do think that they've seen a lot of success in the past with this Playbook. They ran it with the MacBook, where they released an air version. Initially, people are like, why do I even want this thing? It seems to be too expensive. It's not as much performance as the pro versions. But then it became its best selling MacBook ever. So perhaps the same thing could happen with the iPhone.
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B
Zooming out to how Apple is doing for the first time this year, it looks like they have a little wind at their back. Shares are up 38% from an April low. It's added $433 billion in market value. Got two big wins recently. One was that Trump backed off tariffs on smartphones in India and in China, where Apple makes most of its phones that are shipped to the United States. And then recently, a judge in that Google antitrust case allowed Google to continue paying app Apple, which $20 billion a year in order to be the default device on iPhone. So there were two big overhangs on the stock that were lifted. Apple has had a big resurgence recently, but the stock fell yesterday, which it almost always does. Investors always sell the news in terms of the iPhone release, so no surprises there. We'll see what happens going forward with Apple and whether people will shell out for this new iPhone in the fall.
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C
Moving on. Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that employers added 911,000 fewer jobs in the last year ending March than initially expected. That means the economy added just 850,000 jobs, roughly half as many as previously reported. So what is going on with the curious case of the vanishing jobs? Every month, the jobs report we all obsess over comes from a big survey of about 100,000 businesses. Those monthly reports are good because they're timely, but bad because due to response rates, they're not always precise. So once a year, the BLS goes back and checks those estimates against a much more accurate count, the unemployment insurance records that companies have to file with the government. It's an annual process called benchmarking, and it's treated as the gold standard. In the past, revisions have been relatively small and don't attract much attention. But this time around, the monthly jobs report overstated job growth by nearly a million jobs. And last year, it was off by around 600,000. That's two years in a row of really big revisions. The revisions are especially contentious, too, after the White House fired the BLS's top official earlier this year following a set of downward revisions. Even more importantly, though, labor market data is really important since the Fed uses it to make decisions about where to set interest rates. So, Neil, if the Strong labor market coming out of COVID was more of a mirage, which these downward revisions are suggesting. They'll put in even more pressure on Jerome Powell and co to cut interest rates going forward.
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B
So what happened? Why did they miss by half? I mean that is huge. We thought that employers added about 147,000 jobs per month in this period, but they ended up adding just 71,000. So it's a huge error, it's a huge miss. And so economists are looking at like, why did this happen? Why is this revision so big? It's actually the biggest on record in terms of percentages. Well, the BLS uses particular models, models based on historical trends for things like the number of businesses that are opening and closing. And these are assumptions that are based on a lot of years of data and decades of data. But coming out of COVID just some weird stuff was happening in terms of people were opening so many new businesses and companies you did yourself. And that was not factored into these particular models. So that is why many economists think that the BLS overstated this particular job growth for this period by so much.
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C
And this is something that we have been hearing certain Fed officials call attention to over the past few months. Christopher Waller, he's a Fed governor that's been floated to potentially take over for Jerome Powell, he actually cited this benchmark revision as a reason to support a rate cut. Earlier he had been talking about this months ago, essentially saying, hey, we know this big revision is coming because of all the wonkiness coming out of COVID Maybe we have been overstating the strength of the job market right now. So that is why when we say that this data is so important because it is what the Fed is operating off of to make decisions about where to set rates. And there has been some contentiousness within the Fed itself about what to do when you know a big revision is coming.
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B
Yeah, even Jerome Powell in that big speech in Jackson Hole last month said he expected the level of employment, quote, will be revised down materially in Tuesday's report. So maybe this, this huge revision came as a shock to people like you and me, but the economists in the weeds, like Powell and Waller and other folks who are laser focused on employment records knew that this big revision was coming because of the wonkiness in the historical models that they've been using.
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C
And maybe it wasn't a surprise to people like you and me either, because what did the stock market do and reached another all time high yesterday? So again, people did know this was coming. The size of it may have been a little bit up for debate, but the fact that stocks, you know, reached an all time high once again show that this didn't really shake expectations that much.
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B
And it's an interesting, you know, it's an interesting thought for statisticians trying to balance timeliness and accuracy. When you do a jobs report based on estimates every month, it does give an interesting snapshot as to how things are going. And it's very important for the Fed and other policymakers and businesses to make decisions. But as we're seeing, oftentimes they are not accurate. And you need to wait for years until those more durable employment, state employment records come in so we can actually see what's going on. And the big problem, according, according to economists and BLS officials, they don't say that they are rigging the data like the Trump administration is saying. They're saying that we just don't get as many survey responses as we used to, which means we need to make even more assumptions. Prior to Covid, they were getting 65% response rates on this employment survey, and now that has dropped to 50%. They say that is due to budget cuts under both Democratic and Republican administrations. Nepal is facing its worst unrest in decades as young protesters representing Gen Z lash out against what they consider a corrupt government that denies them jobs and fuels the lavish lifestyles of families with connections dubbed Nepo Kids. So far this week, 22 protesters were left dead in violent clashes. Government buildings were set on fire and the prime minister and other leaders resigned. The protesters say they won't stop until the current government is dissolved, which would result in the 14th government Nepal has had since 2008. The catalyst for the protest was a ban on social media platforms that went into effect last week. On Thursday, 26 platforms, including Meta's, Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram, went dark after they did not sign on to a government order that would empower officials to monitor, quote, undesirable content, a bill critics said would result in censorship and stifle opposition voices. But the social media ban, which was later rolled back, was just the fuse that lit the fire. Young Nepalese have much deeper grievances with the government for failing to provide basic economic opportunities and enriching the few at the expense of the many. They recently started a viral social media trend with the hashtag Nepo Kids to expose the chasm between the luxurious lifestyles of politicians kids and the 20% unemployment rate that Nepal's youth currently face. Toby, they're calling these protests Gen Z versus Nepo Kids.
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C
Yeah, but this has been a slow burn crisis in the making. The official unemployment rate for Nepal sits at just under 13%. That's up more than 5% or 5 points in the last five years. But the stats actually undercount reality a little bit because the majority of Nepalese are working informal jobs. They are mostly farmers. And so most of the unemployment is concentrated in the young people that are on protests right now. And then the other issue too is that a big part of Nepal's economy relies on remittances. These are money that Nepali is working abroad send back to their families that are living domestically. That accounted for a quarter of the entire economy. And so when you ban social media, you sever the communications between a lot of the people, a lot of the migrant workers living abroad, and their families back home. So just a powder keg of a lot of things coming together, which is why we've seen these unprecedented protests breaking out.
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B
Yeah. These young people say there's just no economic opportunity back at home, so they need to leave. There are an estimated 2 million Nepalese working abroad. 741,000 left the country last year alone, which is a big chunk of the population. This is a population of 30 million people living in Nepal, this very mountainous country that's famously home to Mount Everest. Often they go to oil rich countries of the Persian Gulf to work there, or Malaysia, or they also go to India as seasonal migrant laborers. But the key point is that they're leaving. And that's because they just say that there's no opportunity back home. And, and they say that this is because government officials are enriching themselves and their families by embezzling all kinds of things. And there's been a few examples, like, like they just built this new airport and there was this report that $71 million during the construction process was embezzled by officials, which raises outroar, which is why we're seeing the parliament in Nepal burn right now.
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C
All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back and talk about milk. This message is a paid partnership with Apple Card. I'm a person who really appreciates simplicity. And when it comes to credit card rewards, the simpler the better. That's one of the many reasons I have an Apple Card. The rewards are super straightforward. I earn up to 3% daily cash back on my everyday purchases. There are no points to calculate, no limits or deadlines. Plus, it's super easy to access my card and make payments from the wallet app of my iPhone. If that sounds like the kind of simplicity you want in a credit card, Apply for Apple Card in the Wallet app on your iPhone. Subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Brands terms and more@applecard.com you know what today is Toby? Tuesday?
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B
No, it's Indeed Future Works, which you can join virtually right now. Also, it's not Tuesday, buddy.
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C
That last part is up for debate. But what's not up for debate is what a great opportunity this is and Morning Brew is on the ground covering it right now. Indeed has been reshaping the world of work with AI powered solutions for both job seekers and employers. Combining this with the scale of their data, Indeed is transforming the hiring landscape to simplify and accelerate the job search and hiring. This is why I will be a pretty big topic at Indeed futureworks today and tomorrow.
- [17:34]
B
It's not just inspiration, it's actionable strategies to future proof your workforce. Check it out at indeed futureworks.com/brew that's indeed futureworks.com/brew ready for a blast from the past Got Milk? Ads are going to start popping up in California as the state's Milk Processor Board, which launched the iconic campaign back in 1993, tries to capitalize on momentum for real dairy. In the 90s, the milk processor Board was trying to drum up flailing milk sales at a time when this type of tea totaling get it was was in fashion. But now, according to the Wall Street Journal, it's going on offense, aiming to hit the gas pedal on a car that shifted from reverse to drive. In 2024, US consumption of whole milk rose by 3.2%, only the second time it's increased since the 1970s and sales of milk overall were up 1.9%. Meanwhile, plant based milks flew too close to the sun, and while they don't spoil exactly, sales fell 5.9% last year, according to Circana. Why is dairy the hottest item you need to refrigerate? Analysts point to the 3Ps protein price and Perception. Real milk is high in protein, which is all the rage right now in wellness circles. In terms of price, it's cheaper than plant based milk, a useful thing to be when consumers are worried about inflation. And finally, perception. Food trends have shifted away from more processed foods and toward the natural, clean and simple. The first ingredient on a carton of milk is milk. There's not a lot of confusion about what's in it, Toby. People are starting to come around to the idea that milk is a good choice.
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C
The Got Milk Campaign has so much lore, so much cultural cachet attached to it. But I do want to go back to 1993 when Goodbye Silverstein and Partners actually did the initial campaign. It went super viral, but it didn't actually drive milk sales. That's the ironic part of this entire campaign that despite the fact that everyone knows the milk mustache campaign, everyone knows the Got Milk campaign, but it didn't necessarily lead to sales. So it is interesting that we're going back to a campaign that historically has, you know, a ton of clout, but not necessarily a lot of purchase conversions at a time when the milk is making the comeback. I do want to talk about alt milks a little bit and why they are cooling off. To me it's similar to the streaming wars in the sense that they grew a ton and all these different, you know, options came on the market and fatigue set in. Essentially like when you go to get a coffee now you have it a laundry list of different milks that you can choose from which just, you know, leads to a little too much churn. And then also maybe they double down on the wrong thing. Like calcium rich. Almond milk was a big thing in the 2010s, but now it's all about protein. So nutrition trends shift. As you mentioned the 3Ps. So maybe the nutrition metric du jour of the day is what's going to make the winners and losers.
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B
I think they just leaned into this more processed foods at a time when people are moving to more natural foods. I mentioned the first ingredient in a carton of real milk is milk. The first ingredient on. On oatly. I just looked. It's water. And if you're looking at that and saying, I just want something clean to put in my body, I want fresh produce, I want fresh everything. And you're seeing the long ingredient list on these nut bake nut based milks and you're seeing the very short ingredient list on something like a carton of milk. You know, it's pretty easy to make a decision at least in 2025.
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C
And just look at Oatley's stock. The big oat milk producer is down a 98% below its IPO price in 2021. Its North American revenue fell 10.6% year over year in the first quarter of this year. So maybe almond milk is actually still doing all right. So has over 50% of the oat milk market share. This isn't going away. Milks, alternative milks. It is still a $10 billion market or it's expected to be one over the next five years. Compared to the dairy market though, it's much smaller dairy markets just under $60 billion a year. So I don't know if oat milk just needs its got milk campaign to, you know, bring it back to the hearts and minds and wallets of consumers. But right now it is struggling a little bit.
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B
And it's not just milk itself, it's cow's mills, what they what the industry calls cow's milk based value added dairy products. And that sounds like a mouthful, but what I'm talking about is Greek yogurt, cottage cheese and kefir cultured dairy products. They've seen sales rise 8.2% in the past year. Cottage cheese, look at that. It's been an all star cottage cheese sales were up nearly 70% year over year and 2024 people are finding it a great source of protein. One of the three PS protein is everywhere. And if you can tout your own product as having a lot of protein content, which a lot of these milks do now is a huge part of their marketing campaign, then you will see a lot of success in this current food environment. Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. In a sorry state of affairs, American high school seniors probably can't read what's written on their fake IDs or figure out how old they're supposed to be. Senior scores on major math and reading tests fell to their lowest levels on record, according to data released by the Education Department yesterday. Their average math score was the worst since 2005, when this test began, while reading fell to its lowest point since 1992, when that test began. To give you an example of what this means in reading, two thirds of high school seniors could figure out the purpose of a persuasive essay, but only 20% could draw a conclusion from that essay. The results come from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, which is given to tens of thousands of students and considered the gold standard in benchmarking how students are faring. And it presents a worrying picture. Student performance was declining in the years before the pandemic and it's only accelerated since.
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C
This so called learning loss has been pretty broad, it's been pretty substantial. And it's happening to people who were already falling behind. They are now falling even further behind. Girls scores on average tended to drop faster than boys as well. And when you see this data, you want to point to a sort of smoking gun as to why is this happening? Is it the pandemic? No, it was happening before the pandemic. Is it social media? Probably can't point to that either There has just been a variety of factors and challenges. High absence rates, misbehavior, teacher turnover, distraction within the classroom from a screens. You can't just look at one particular things. This has just been a broad based decline going forward. But yeah, it is rough that. I mean I'm hoping I could determine the purpose of a persuasive essay as well after reading it, but tough to see this data, especially one that is continuing to head in the wrong direction. Up next, Rejoice Hoarders for Cracker Barrel has halted its remodeling plans that were set to clean up the famously cluttered homespun restaurant decor just weeks after it announced it's keeping its old logo after facing an online firestorm. It also halted any remodeling plans that ditched the old timey charm for cleaner, brighter interiors. In a statement titled we hear you, the company reassured customers that the rocking chairs on the porch are fireplaces and pet games. Unique treasures in our gift shop will be staying the thing the chain most heard, though, was a lack of credit card swipes. Cracker Barrel sales and foot traffic have fallen since the logo change controversy first erupted in August, according to data seen by the Wall Street Journal. Neil Cracker Barrel cracked under the pressure.
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B
They waved the white flag. But I can't help but think back to what Anne Barry, who Coast Brew Markets, said on this particular podcast when talking about this story. She said, well, you're damned if you do and you're damned if don't, because Cracker Barrel was not doing well. Their stock is down 63% in the past five years. Their sales in 2024 were completely flat year over year. They need new customers. Their customer base is getting older. They need to replenish that with younger customers. They were going to do that through this store remodeling, but they were beaten into submission. They did not do this particular change the right way. The unfavorable view of Cracker barrel rose from 10% on August 23 to 25% two days later. So this was a case of just a very mismanaged remodeling or renovation. But still, Cracker Barrel has to do something different because they can't keep doing the same thing, same things that we were doing, or they will just decline into obscurity.
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C
I will say after this controversy broke out, I did open up my Apple maps and say, where's the, where's the nearest Cracker Barrel? We're in a Cracker Barrel desert here right now, so we're not going to help with any of those foot traffic trends, but I have thought about going to Cracker Barrel going forward so maybe sales will bounce back. Finally, Apple wasn't the only one to roll out a new product yesterday. The Girl Scouts of America are also debuting a new cookie for its upcoming season. Get your wallet and your mouth ready for the Explore Mores, a Rocky Road inspired chocolate cookie that has a creamy filling with notes of marshmallow and toasted almond. For Explore Mores to live, other cookies had to die. So you have to say goodbye to s' mores and Toast Jays, which got booted from the lineup. But don't worry, the 2026 season is still packed with favorites like Samoas do si does tag along Trefoils and Thin Mitts, which will go on sale around the new year. Neil I've never been a Rocky Road ice cream kind of guy, but twist my arm. I'll support the local troops and give it a taste test.
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B
Explore More as that's a mouthful in more ways than one. I don't know about you, I'm 100% in chocolate cookie Creamy filling with Chocolate Almond cream marshmallow. This is very much my alley. I do like Rocky Road ice cream and if you just pour that into a cookie, I mean, obviously I'm signing up for that. It looks delicious. Seems like the Girl Scouts are going in this particular Dora the Explorer route with their naming conventions because we got the Explore More now and one of the cookies that is in their lineup is called Adventureful. So if you need a snack for a hike, the Girl Scouts want to be that.
- [27:23]
C
What's wrong with Thin Mints, though? Thin Mints? It just tells you exactly what it is. It's still the goat, but they're trying to get all New Age with the Explorer More. Just give me the old classics.
- [27:32]
B
Well, that is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Wednesday. If you have any thoughts or feedback on today's show, send a note to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. Let's roll the credits. Emily Miligan is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup has got milk. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
- [27:55]
C
Great show, Daniel. Let's run it back tomorrow.
- [28:05]
A
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