
Black Friday reaches new highs & Australia passes first-ever social media ban
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Neal Freyman
Good Morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
Neal Freyman
Today, what are BRICS countries and why do they want to move off the US Dollar?
Toby Howell
Then Black Friday shopping numbers are in and it looks like we all needed a little retail therapy this year. It's Monday, December 2nd. Let's ride.
Neal Freyman
We are so back. Welcome everyone to the best stretch of the year. That time between Thanksgiving and Christmas with all the lights, holiday markets, nutmeg smells and music. And speaking of music, I just want to say good luck to everyone participating in Whammageddon. If you haven't heard of this, it's an annual challenge in which players try to avoid hearing Last Christmas by Wham from December 1st yesterday through Christmas Eve. Toby, this seems impossible.
Toby Howell
It seems impossible, but let's get into some specifics. There is an official Whammageddon site and it lays out some rules you need to follow. The first two are just the objective of the game and then to the timeframe of the game. As you mentioned, December 1st through the 24th. But the third rule is the most important. You are allowed to listen to covers and remixes. So it only applies to the original version of Last Christmas by Wham. That will make you lose. And Neil, I know you have done some digging into the best covers of this song. What are some different versions people could listen to to get their last Christmas fix without losing the game?
Neal Freyman
Yeah, to be honest, they don't hold a candle to the original. But if you need to listen to this, so. But still want to compete in the challenge? There are plenty of covers out there by Jimmy Eat World, Hilary Duff, Carly Rae Jepsen and the cast of Glee. There's also one by Taylor Swift.
Toby Howell
Oh my gosh, I already lost this challenge by just going to a department store. So definitely avoid the Nordstrom's in the Macy's of the World if you want to win. Now a word from our sponsor, Yahoo Finance. Neil, how was the long weekend?
Neal Freyman
Oh, you know, full of interesting side dishes, some family time, and some good dinner table conversations.
Toby Howell
Same here. But those those dinner table Converse can get a little dicey around this time of year. Luckily, I have a pretty finance focused family, so a lot of our conversations revolved around the market.
Neal Freyman
I'd love to hear a Howell family market breakdown.
Toby Howell
Honestly, it was mostly just so is Nvidia going to go up forever? But while I'm not the guy to give financial advice, I did recommend that they all check out Yahoo Finance. It's got way more information than I could ever dole out over a side of mashed potatoes. Plus it has this awesome research tab where you can go deep on advanced charts or reports from experts talking about.
Neal Freyman
Yahoo Finance over Thanksgiving meals. Now that is a company man right there.
Toby Howell
Hey, Yahoo is what I use. So I want the fam to be armed with the best data possible as well. That's just being considerate if you want.
Neal Freyman
To be like Toby's family, which who wouldn't head to yahoo finance.com today well.
Toby Howell
Hope your long weekend was restful and not too stressful. Since we were off for a few days, we're going to move our headline roundup segment up to the top of the show and run down some of the stories you might have missed while you were off in a leftover inspired food coma. Up first Black Friday numbers are in and air fryers, giant TVs, makeup kits. Oh my. Shoppers did their best supermarket sweep impressions and loaded up their shopping carts at record pace this year. Online shopping on Black Friday set a new all time high, reaching almost $11 billion according to Adobe Analytics. And that's on top of the $6 billion consumers shelled out on Thanksgiving Day itself. The items that drove most of the spending were your usual suspects. Sales of jewelry were up 651% compared to an average day earlier this fall as shoppers took advantage of discounts. Appliance sales jumped 476% while apparel and electronics were both up over 330%. A surprise winner was toys. Overall toy sales were up 622% as Harry Potter, Lego sets, wicked plush dolls and board games were flying off shelves. Whatever you decided to buy, you probably did buy it online. Online retail sales were up 15% this year, according to MasterCard, compared to just a 0.7% rise in in store sales. So now this was always going to be a bit of an apprehensive time for retailers because a lot of consumers have shown themselves to be more price sensitive this year. After months and months of high Inflation. But clearly the discounts were tasty enough to drive some pretty gaudy numbers. Did you do any shopping? This?
Neal Freyman
I did a little shopping. I bought a new backpack. I bought some sneakers because these are absolutely beat up. Then the most important thing, I walked into the Verizon store and I switched from Android to an iPhone. So those are the, those are the three big purchases that I made. And I wonder if anyone else saw this but there was some interesting marketing this year. Some retailers decided to say that they decided to promote their sales ahead of tariffs and we know that President Trump floated tariffs on literally every good coming into this country and higher ones on, on Chinese goods which many, you know, Christmas and holiday gifts are a few, a few companies said you better lock in your prices now and they called it a pre tariff sale. Now I think that is walking a bit of a tightrope to say how, you know, to see how consumers would respond to that. But that was a new added flavor this year for, for people's holiday shopping.
Toby Howell
Right. It was certainly a psychological marketing tactic like hey, prices are going to get even more expensive down the line. So let's bring them forward. I do want to talk about how in store traffic did because foot traffic actually fell on Black Friday 3.2% year over year. But a lot of it was due to some regional aberrations because there was as we mentioned right before we left, some pretty bad weather over this Thanksgiving weekend. The Midwest had the sharpest decline because they also had really, really cold weather, very wintry weather. Northeast also had some adverse conditions. So whenever you do look at Black Friday sales numbers you have to zoom out and say like hey, there's a lot more, you know, other factors involved here rather than just consumers appetite for spending. Stuff like weather does affect foot traffic. So that's maybe why we saw a little bit of an impact on shoppers decisions to venture out and go shop in stores while we saw that 15, 16% rise in actual online shopping.
Neal Freyman
Moving on. Australia made history on Friday because becoming the first country in world to ban social media for children under 16. In passing the law overwhelmingly the Australian parliament wanted to send a message to online platforms and the rest of the world that it was serious about protecting kids from the harms they face while scrolling. One thing to know about this law, all the responsibility for enforcement rests on the platforms. If they fail to comply, they could be fined up to $32 million while underage users and their parents will face no penalties. The ban doesn't go into effect for another 12 months. So in the interim, social media companies are going to be scrambling to create tools that block kids under 16 in Australia from accessing their platforms. But critics of the law say those efforts will be futile and kids will find a way to get around it if they want to go on social media. Toby, we've seen crackdowns on social media use for kids in the name of safety, but never something like this.
Toby Howell
Right. A lot of social media companies are pushing back on this, though, because they said the legislation was really rushed, it was introduced and then passed within a week. So even though there's 12 months for them to figure out how to actually enforce this, a lot of companies are in the dark and can't really explain how they're supposed to satisfy the requirements or how it will work in practice. The core focus of the legislation is pretty simple, though. It wants. Australia wants social media companies to take reasonable steps to identify and remove underage users from its platform. So the core idea is there, but the devil is going to be in the details here because companies have brought up things like VPNs and the fact that this will probably drive underage kids to fringe parts of the Internet, the dark web, whatever you want to call it, to access social media sites. So definitely a lot of pushback here, but a pretty bold statement from Australia.
Neal Freyman
It is bold. I mean, certain parts of the United States have tried to move forward with legislation somewhat like this. Not as strict. There was a law in the U.S. state of Utah which was similar to Australia's, that was overturned by a federal judge who found it was unconstitutional. And then earlier this year we talked about Florida. This is currently being challenged in the courts, but they want to ban social media for children under 14. So this one by Australia goes way above and beyond that. I don't know whether there is a legal challenge coming like it does in the United States, but this was certainly controversial. Face pushback from mental health advocates too said you're not looking at the more positive aspects of social media. There are marginalized kids out there who go to places on the Internet on social media platforms as a means of finding community and it can often help their mental health. While this law certainly focuses on the harms and there are many. So now. Yeah. So in the next 12 months, social media companies are absolutely going to be scrambling to find ways to, to block people under 16 from accessing their platforms. And, and in Australia, going on social media now is kind of just like getting a driver's license or waiting to buy alcohol. There's a certain age limit and you have to wait until then to, to go on social media like you would go buy booze at the corner store. And obviously there are ways around that and there might be ways around, and there might be ways around getting on social media underage as well.
Toby Howell
President elect Donald Trump picked a fight with a new bloc of countries, this time going after the so called BRICS nations, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In a sense expanded to include other nations like Egypt, the uae, Ethiopia and Argentina. Over the weekend, Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on the group if they go ahead with trying to pursue using an alternative currency to the US Dollar. The threat comes after some BRICS members have shown interest in de dollarizing the world economy, namely Vladimir Putin, who has called for the nations to create another option to the dollar earlier this year to prevent the US from using it as a political weapon. So this is Trump taking a hard line stance, dissuading anyone from getting any ideas. Neal?
Neal Freyman
Yeah, I mean, Putin does want to move away from the US dollar because after he invaded Ukraine, the US did certainly weaponize the ubiquity of the US dollar to cut Russia off from the global financial system because the US can just do that because the dollar is everywhere. And I think one particular story from that summit in October where Putin said that, that hey everybody, BRICS countries here, we should move away from the dollar. The problem is they told all attendees coming that they couldn't to bring cash, to bring USD or Euros because they're non Russian credit cards that operated on Visa or MasterCard networks would not work in Russia because the US had cut them off. So I think that's a sign of the, you know, just how much the global financial system is underpinned by the US dollar. And it has been very difficult to move away from that ever since World War II. At the end of World War II, the US dollar has dominated trading everywhere in the world. And it will be hard, even if they wanted to, even despite these tariffs, to move away from the dollar.
Toby Howell
But zooming out here, this is another example of Trump's very America first agenda. He wants to recalibrate, you know, the global trade systems to reinforce US economic hegemony, sovereignty, whatever you want to call it, because right now he is threatening to just completely uproot the global trade balance, saying 100% tariffs on BRICS countries, which are this emerging economic force. So still trying to say, like, hey, the US is the, is the boss here. We want to, you know, we're going to charge you 100% tariffs sharply drive up the cost of goods if you do go ahead with this other plan. So it's just another America first kind of idea from Trump.
Neal Freyman
For all my caffeine addicts out there, you're going to want to dust off the French press because buying a coffee every morning is about to get even more expensive. Last Wednesday, coffee futures surged to their highest level since 1977, 47 years ago, which could cause companies to raise prices. Futures for arabica beans, the most popular and fancy kind, have climbed more than 70% this year, while robusta beans, the cheaper kind you'd find in instant coffee, have nearly doubled so far in 2024. And whenever you see spikes like these in commodities, it usually comes down to one thing, supply concerns. There's been really bad growing weather in Brazil and Vietnam, the two largest coffee producers, which is expected to reduce output. And a cascade of other macroeconomic and geopolitical factors have sparked an all out bean grab by roasters that have pushed prices higher. Toby, what are you going to do without your morning cortado?
Toby Howell
Probably take up tea drinking at this rate because, yeah, it's been really bad weather in Brazil and Vietnam. Brazil suffered its worst drought in 70 years from August to September. And then ironically, they got these really heavy rains in October this year, which led to some more concerns that it will kind of reduce the flowering crop. Same thing in Vietnam. It had a drought, but then it also experienced too much rain at harvest time. So that's one aspect. It is just weather. It's hard to grow when there's no water and then it's hard to grow when there's too much water. And then also the other part of it is you, you mentioned another macro economic factor. There is this new EU law that is filtering down that aims to ban companies from growing crops on deforested land. That is a big question mark for these growers and these grocers who are buying the supply until they can figure out really the uncertainty around this new EU law. A lot of them are just ordering a bunch of beans right now because they are saying we want to have beans when eventually this does come to pass. So it is just putting a ton of pressure on supply right now.
Neal Freyman
And what does this mean for you, the consumer? Well, you should probably expect more, you know, pricier coffee. Nestle, which is the world's largest coffee seller, said it would raise prices earlier in November in response to the surge in coffee bean prices. And then another store to look at, obviously is Starbucks. Starbucks buys 3% of the world's Coffee supply to, you know, to send beans to. It's 40,000 cafes around the world. And Starbucks has done a lot less hedging against coffee price shocks this year. So it is more susceptible to volatility in the coffee bean market. And we're seeing, you know, hockey, hockey stick price growth in coffee beans. So I guess I don't have good news here. It looks like coffee is going to get more expensive.
Toby Howell
It's going to be a tea year. Finally, a little update on the crypto entrepreneur who brought the banana duct tape to a wall for $6.2 million last week. He ate it. Justin sun, the 34 year old crypto millionaire, called the art piece iconic and complimented the artist Maurizio Catalan. But then, standing before a room full of journalists and media, peeled the banana off the wall and ate it like any other piece of fruit. But that is not where this story ends. The banana at the center of the conceptual art piece was bought by Catalan for 25 cents from a street vendor outside the Sotheby auction house where the bidding took place. Once the vendor named Shah Alam heard how much it sold for, he was a little bit peeved, to say the least. Son, never one to let a headline opportunity slip away, decided to compensate alarm for his role in facilitating the sale by offering to buy 100,000 bananas from his fruit stand. Good for $25,000 worth of potassium product. So, Neal, should we go cash in our free banana?
Neal Freyman
Oh, my God. This story is downright Dickensian. I mean, it is so dramatic when you, they go to this street vendor who makes $12 an hour, 12 hour shifts, standing on his, you know, standing in the elements. Buy, buy a banana from him for 25 cents, move it across the street into an auction house, tape it against the wall, and that the value of that banana goes up from $0.25 to $6.2 million. I don't know, it's quite profound. It's maybe disturbing if you think of that. It might be thrilling if you, if you are obsessed with the concept of abstract art and then you have the dichotomy between the street vendor and Justin sun, who's this crypto entrepreneur who can just throw around $6.2 million on a duct tape banana and then eat it in front of everybody as, as you know, in some sort of symbolism that I don't quite understand. But that dichotomy has really, has really emerged since the, since this banana was sold. And I just don't think we've, we've heard the end of the story.
Toby Howell
Definitely not the the math doesn't really math. Even son's offer of buying 100,000 bananas, it doesn't give that much money to alarm kids. One he doesn't own the streetcar. Most of that money would go to the owner. The New York Times did contact the owner of the vendor and said the owner said that he would share profits with Alam and some of the other people who man the fruit stand. But the net profit from a purchase of 100000 bananas comes out to be around $6000 because again, there's no money in selling bananas. It's 25 cents a pop. So even though potentially the sentiment was their sun isn't giving them that much financial reward if the entire profit on 100,000 Milan comes out to six grand. There have been some other GoFundMe efforts to say, hey Alam, I know you participated in this history making moment. Let's raise some money for you. And those have raised around $20,000. So potentially if you do want to contribute to the alarm fund that There is some GoFundMes out there if you want to go pursue those. Up next, our winners of the long weekend. Cybersecurity isn't just a hot topic on the news. It's a real growing threat. Specifically encryption cracking cor quantum computers.
Neal Freyman
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Toby Howell
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Neal Freyman
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Toby Howell
Learn about Scope and this investment opportunity at the investment journal.com/morning brew. That's the investment journal.com Morning Brew.
Neal Freyman
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Neal Freyman
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Toby Howell
Start converting your B2B audience into high quality leads today. LinkedIn ads will even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign. Go to LinkedIn.com/mbd to claim your credit. That's LinkedIn.com/mbd. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn the place to be, to be.
Neal Freyman
Welcome to winners of the weekend. The segment where Toby and I picked two things that went home with all the Thanksgiving leftovers. I defeated Toby in the Black Friday Mall scavenger hunt, so I get to go first. And my winner is the stock market, which just closed out its best month of the year. The New York Stock Exchange was only open for a half day on Friday, but even in that short time frame, the markets continued their rise. To make November truly one to remember, the Dow surged 7.5% last month and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each gained at least 5%. The small cap Russell 2000 did even better, jumping more than 10% in November. Crypto was also a big winner. With bitcoin spiking more than 40% over the month to its current price just below $100,000. It doesn't take Warren Buffett to figure out what's going on. The election happened in the first week of November, sparking what some call animal spirits in the market. Investors are excited about the prospect of pro business, anti regulation policies from the incoming Trump administration and they think stocks are going to benefit. Same goes for cryptocurrencies where Trump is assembling the most pro crypto government in US History. All the while, investors are essentially shrugging off the threat of tariffs, believing Trump won't actually pull the trigger. Toby, how is your portfolio looking?
Toby Howell
I mean it is frothy out there right now. The S&P 500 price to sales ratio is at almost a record high. If you zoom out the MSCI All Country World Index, which just is an index of all the stock exchanges out there in the world. America now makes up 66% of that, which is an all time high. So American dominance is is just absolutely through the roof right now. It was a crazy month if you look back. I mean one thing that I want to point to is MicroStrategy, which is the tech company that just started buying a lot of bitcoin, selling more stock to buy more bitcoin, becoming a bitcoin holding company essentially. It had more trading volume than peak GameStop mania. And remember how manic it felt during GameStop MicroStrategy? Absolutely top that. And that is just one stock here. So the word I like to use is frothy because we are sitting at all time highs, best months of the year so far and it looks like there's no slowdown in sight.
Neal Freyman
That's no, absolutely not. I mean, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns, obviously, but there's a lot to like about this the remaining part of the year for the market. December is historically the S&P 500's most consistent month of gains with the greatest frequency of advantage of advances. And then The S&P 500 is up more than 26% so far in 2020 four of the past 10 times, the S and P entered December up more than 20%. December itself recorded an average gain of 2.4%. So maybe that is past performance, guarantee of future returns. And then this stretch from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving until the second trading day of the next year has historically also been very bullish. The S&P 500 has been up 80% of the time during that stretch from right before Thanksgiving till right after the New Year. So all signs are pointing, you know, up, up.
Toby Howell
That is up and to the right and also a little bit green. You asked how my portfolio is doing. It is green, Neal. My winner of the weekend is Moana too, because for all the wicked and gladiator hype, it was Moana that had the best Thanksgiving weekend, pulling in $220 million in domestic ticket sales together, mo wiki8 or combined to make this five day Thanksgiving holiday period the biggest haul in cinematic history. As of yesterday, the box office had brought in about $420 million, not bad for a struggling movie industry. Moana 2 really blew people out of the water, though some estimates had it making just $100 million on its opening weekend. But it more than doubled. Double that and it now sits atop the pegging order of the highest Thanksgiving weekend performances ever, beating out another Disney sequel, Frozen. To Neil, it was a turducken of box office hauls.
Neal Freyman
I mean, best Thanksgiving ever at the North American box office. And Moana too has a pretty interesting story about how it got to theaters, because the first one opened in 2016. It opened to $82 million over that Thanksgiving weekend, which is certainly okay. But nothing, nothing pathbreaking, nothing that would, would signify what just happened this weekend. But it's got this amazing second life on streaming. Last year it was the most streamed movie on any streaming platform anywhere in the United States. It's on probably Disney plus, obviously, but it's, you know, people have rediscovered this movie and turned it into really a phenomenon to the point where it can have, you know, over $200 million in ticket sales over a single weekend. It was a five day weekend. So Moana, the original Moana 2 was optioned for Disney plus originally, but they, Disney thought they had some gold on their hands and they were absolutely right. So that was a very smart decision to put it in the box office rather than than put it on streaming.
Toby Howell
Yeah. It comes down to actually Bob Icar, when he returned as chief executive, he wanted to, you know, recalibrate the balance between streaming releases and theatrical releases. So even though Monitor was originally slated for streaming, he said, or I don't know who said it, but under his watch, Moana 2 did make it to theaters. And some analysts said whoever made that call, that was one of the best calls that Disney has made. And now we zoom out to Disney, Disney's year in the box office. They've low key crushed it because Moana 2 is on pace to become their third $1 billion movie this year in 2024. Inside out to gross over $1 billion worldwide. Deadpool, Wolverine, over $1 billion. And now Moana 2 could be that next billion dollar check in Disney's column.
Neal Freyman
Have you seen any of these movies? I saw Deadpool and we'll the ones from this weekend.
Toby Howell
Oh, no. I see that evolve so far.
Neal Freyman
Don't got to get on that before. Next we're going to I'm going to ask you again on Friday and you better have seen two out of three.
Toby Howell
We're busy, Neal.
Neal Freyman
I know. All right. It's Monday and as always, we close out the show with a preview of the major events coming your way this week. If you haven't already, you'll definitely memorize the security code on the back of your credit card by this evening because today is Cyber Monday, the biggest shopping day of the year, save for a tiny blip in 2021. Spending on the E. Commerce blowout has increased every year since 2019 and is projected to rise again this year to a record $13.2 billion.
Toby Howell
Black Friday Cyber Monday giving Tuesday is tomorrow. Venmo Toby $20 Wednesday. I love all these holidays, Neil. I think I will do some shopping this year.
Neal Freyman
The holiday season really kicks into gear on Wednesday when the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree is going to be lit. The 74 foot Norway spruce will be topped with a star that has 3 million sparkling crystals and decorated with 50,000 LED lights on 5 miles of wires. And here's a fun fact. For the first time since 1959, the country's most famous Christmas tree came from Massachusetts.
Toby Howell
I love the facts. The stat sheet that comes with every Rockefeller Center Christmas tree. This tree is 70 years old. It weighs 11 tons. The star alone on the top of it weighs 900 pounds. It's got 70 spikes. So I do love that there is just like the stat sheet that goes down the Christmas tree every year. This isn't the world record tree though. 1999 they did bring in 100 foot tall Rockefeller at Christmas tree. Usually though it is limited by the fact that you can't maneuver a tree through you know the space that of the New York City street. So it's literally they try to push it to the limit but about 100ft is the tallest we can go both.
Neal Freyman
Me and the Christmas tree grown in Western Massachusetts. I'm so proud. The jobs report for November is dropping on Friday. Strong hiring data could dampen expectations for future rate cuts by the Fed when it meets later this month.
Toby Howell
After a couple of weird jobs reports with some data influenced by Boeing striking workers, Helene Milton the hurricanes November data should be a little bit cleaner.
Neal Freyman
All right. And finally, if history is any indication, Spotify Wrapped is coming this week. Toby, you feeling confident?
Toby Howell
I'm feeling confident. I am hammering some chapel run right now.
Neal Freyman
So my number one artist already closed window has closed.
Toby Howell
I hope I'm not because right now I think like box fan White Noise is going to be my number one because I sleep to White Noise so that always messes up my Spotify rap. So hopefully I get a, you know, a more reflective version this year.
Neal Freyman
That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for spending your morning with us and hope you have an easy transition back into the workweek. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at Morning Broadcom. And it's the season of giving, so please share Morning Brew Daily with everyone you know. It doesn't matter whether they've been naughty or nice this year. For more specific sharing inspiration, Toby is here with an idea.
Toby Howell
Speaking of Spotify wrapped, I want you to share the podcast with someone you think is in the top 5% to 10% of listeners but you think can make the leap into that 1% club. I know you think the windows already closed according to Neil, but still, it's an exclusive place, that 1% club. So start binging.
Neal Freyman
Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. You Chenowa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Menino is on audio hair and makeup is disappointed I moved away from Android to iPhone and you're right. I'm so sorry. Devin Emery is our chief content officer, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
Toby Howell
Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.
Morning Brew Daily: Black Friday Hits $11B in Sales & Australia Bans Social Media for Kids Under 16
Released on December 2, 2024
Introduction
In today’s episode of Morning Brew Daily, hosts Neal Freyman and Toby Howell delve into significant developments shaping the business and economic landscape. From record-breaking Black Friday sales to groundbreaking legislation in Australia, and geopolitical tensions affecting the global economy, the duo provides insightful analysis and engaging discussions to kickstart your day.
1. Black Friday Sales Surge to $11 Billion
Timestamp: [03:19]
Neal and Toby kicked off their discussion with a comprehensive overview of this year’s Black Friday shopping statistics. According to Adobe Analytics, online shopping on Black Friday reached an unprecedented nearly $11 billion, supplementing the $6 billion spent on Thanksgiving Day itself.
Key Highlights:
Top-Selling Categories: Jewelry sales skyrocketed by 651%, appliances saw a 476% increase, while apparel and electronics each rose over 330%. Toys were a surprising standout, with sales up by 622%, driven by popular items like Harry Potter sets and Lego.
Shift to Online Shopping: Online retail experienced a significant boost with a 15% increase, starkly contrasting the modest 0.7% rise in in-store sales as reported by MasterCard. This shift underscores the growing consumer preference for digital shopping platforms.
Notable Quote: Neal remarked, “There was some interesting marketing this year. Some retailers decided to promote their sales ahead of tariffs, calling it a pre-tariff sale” ([04:54]). This strategy aimed to lock in consumer spending before potential price hikes due to looming tariffs, reflecting retailers' adaptive marketing tactics amidst economic uncertainties.
Additional Insights:
2. Australia Bans Social Media for Children Under 16
Timestamp: [06:44] – [09:51]
One of the most groundbreaking stories discussed was Australia’s unprecedented move to ban social media access for children under 16. This legislation aims to protect young users from online harms, placing the onus of enforcement on social media platforms.
Key Highlights:
Legislative Details: The Australian Parliament passed the law with overwhelming support, mandating that social media companies implement measures to identify and block underage users. Failure to comply could result in fines up to $32 million.
Industry Pushback: Toby noted significant resistance from social media giants, citing the rushed nature of the legislation's introduction and concerns over practical enforcement methods, such as the effectiveness of VPNs in circumventing age restrictions.
Notable Quotes: Toby commented, “The core focus of the legislation is pretty simple... the devil is going to be in the details here” ([07:40]). This emphasizes the straightforward objective of the law juxtaposed with the complex challenges of its implementation.
Neal added, “Some analysts said whoever made that call, that was one of the best calls that Disney has made” ([25:26]), drawing parallels to how strategic decisions can significantly impact market outcomes.
Additional Insights:
Global Implications: Comparing to U.S. states like Utah and Florida, where similar laws faced legal challenges, Neal highlighted Australia's law as more stringent and potentially setting a global precedent.
Mental Health Considerations: Critics argue that the ban overlooks the positive aspects of social media, such as providing community and mental health support to marginalized youth.
3. Trump Threatens BRICS Over US Dollar Dominance
Timestamp: [09:51] – [12:20]
The episode also examined the escalating tensions between the United States and the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) concerning the global financial system.
Key Highlights:
Tariff Threats: President-elect Donald Trump issued a stern warning, threatening 100% tariffs on BRICS countries should they proceed with initiatives to establish an alternative to the US Dollar.
De-Dollarization Efforts: Russian President Vladimir Putin has advocated for reducing reliance on the US Dollar to shield his nation from economic sanctions, particularly after the invasion of Ukraine led to the US leveraging the Dollar’s global dominance as a political tool.
Notable Quote: Neal observed, “It has been very difficult to move away from that ever since World War II” ([10:35]), highlighting the entrenched position of the US Dollar in the global economy and the challenges BRICS faces in altering this dynamic.
Additional Insights:
4. Coffee Prices Reach 47-Year Highs
Timestamp: [12:20] – [15:03]
Neal and Toby discussed the alarming surge in coffee prices, driven by a combination of adverse weather conditions and macroeconomic factors.
Key Highlights:
Price Increases: Coffee futures for Arabica beans surged over 70% in 2024, while Robusta beans nearly doubled, marking the highest levels since 1977.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Severe droughts followed by heavy rains in major coffee-producing regions like Brazil and Vietnam have drastically reduced output. Additionally, new EU regulations banning crop cultivation on deforested land have added uncertainty to the supply chain.
Notable Quote: Toby explained, “It is just putting a ton of pressure on supply right now” ([13:14]), emphasizing how multiple factors are converging to constrain coffee supply and drive prices upward.
Consumer Impact: Neal advised consumers to anticipate higher coffee prices, noting that industry giants like Nestlé and Starbucks are likely to pass on increased costs to customers due to less hedging against price volatility this year.
5. The $6.2 Million Duct-Taped Banana Incident
Timestamp: [15:03] – [16:58]
In a lighter yet thought-provoking segment, the hosts recounted the bizarre incident where a crypto entrepreneur purchased a banana duct-taped to a wall for $6.2 million before consuming it.
Key Highlights:
Event Overview: Justin Sun, a prominent crypto figure, bought the art piece for $6.2 million after artist Maurizio Catalan taped a banana, originally purchased for 25 cents, to a wall.
Vendor Reaction: The street vendor, Shah Alam, who sold the original banana, expressed discontent over the disproportionate sale price. In response, Sun offered to buy 100,000 bananas from Alam’s stand, though the actual financial benefit to Alam remains minimal.
Notable Quotes: Neal described the event as “downright Dickensian” ([16:00]), reflecting on the stark contrast between the street vendor’s modest earnings and the extravagant art sale.
Toby added, “It's going to be a tea year” ([13:14]), humorously suggesting a shift in consumer preferences due to soaring coffee prices.
Broader Implications: The incident underscores the volatile intersection of art, cryptocurrency, and social media influence, highlighting how perceived value can be artificially inflated in contemporary digital economies.
6. Winners of the Weekend: Stock Market and Moana 2
Timestamp: [16:58] – [25:26]
The hosts concluded their episode by celebrating two major successes: the stock market’s impressive performance and the phenomenal box office success of Moana 2.
Stock Market Surge:
Performance Metrics: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 7.5% in November, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each gained over 5%. The Russell 2000 outperformed with a more than 10% increase.
Cryptocurrency Boom: Bitcoin surged over 40% in the month, nearing the $100,000 mark, buoyed by investor optimism surrounding the incoming Trump administration’s pro-business policies.
Moana 2’s Box Office Triumph:
Record-Breaking Sales: Moana 2 grossed $220 million domestically in its opening weekend, surpassing initial projections of $100 million and becoming Disney’s highest-grossing film during the Thanksgiving period.
Strategic Release Decision: Neal praised Disney’s choice to release Moana 2 theatrically rather than on streaming platforms, a decision credited with revitalizing the film’s success.
Notable Quotes: Neal affirmed, “December is historically the S&P 500's most consistent month of gains” ([21:54]), highlighting the seasonal strength of the stock market.
Toby enthused about Moana 2, stating, “It was one of the best calls that Disney has made” ([25:26]), emphasizing the strategic brilliance behind the film’s release strategy.
7. Upcoming Events and Final Thoughts
Timestamp: [26:06] – [28:42]
As the episode wrapped up, Neal and Toby previewed major events on the horizon:
Cyber Monday: Projected to reach a record $13.2 billion in e-commerce sales, surpassing previous years’ figures.
Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree Lighting: Featuring a 74-foot Norway spruce adorned with 3 million crystals and 50,000 LED lights, marking a festive milestone.
November Jobs Report: Anticipated to reveal strong hiring data, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s decisions on rate cuts.
Spotify Wrapped: Expected to be released, providing insights into listeners' most-played tracks and artists of the year.
Notable Quote: Toby encouraged listeners to share the podcast, especially targeting those aspiring to join the “top 5% to 10% of listeners” ([28:26]), fostering community engagement.
Conclusion
This episode of Morning Brew Daily provided a thorough exploration of pivotal economic trends, legislative changes, and cultural phenomena influencing the current market and societal behaviors. Neal Freyman and Toby Howell adeptly dissected complex topics, offering listeners valuable insights and foresight into the evolving business landscape. Whether you’re a seasoned investor, a consumer navigating holiday sales, or simply curious about global events, this episode delivers a wealth of information to keep you informed and engaged.
For more detailed discussions and insights, tune into the full episode of Morning Brew Daily on your preferred podcasting platform or YouTube.