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Chip Stocks Are Skyrocketing & Lucky Strike Bowling a Monopoly?
00:28:44
Party like its 1999 & time to split up Lucky Strike?
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- [00:02]
A
Consider this comparison. PwC data found the percentage of CEOs who report revenue gains or cost reductions from AI is almost equal to the percentage who say they're still stuck. What separates these two groups? PwC points to a clarity issue. Even for CEOs, it's hard to tell what's AI hype, what's reality, and where this tech can make a tangible difference. Learn where AI can actually make an impact and what successful adoption looks like at pwc.com us brewai that's pwc.com/us/brew AI
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B
good morning, brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
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C
And I'm Toby Howell.
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Today, a bowling giant is being accused of destroying the sport.
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C
Then chip stocks are on a historic tear. It's Monday, May 11th. Let's ride.
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B
Good morning and welcome back to the week. Folks, there's an epidemic spreading across America and I'm not talking about the hantavirus. I'm talking about the uncontrolled spread of Olivia's and Liam's. For the seventh consecutive year, Olivia was the most popular name for newborn girls in the US And Liam for boys. According to the Social Security Administration's annual report. For girls, Olivia, Charlotte, Emma, Amelia and Sophia were the top five. While for boys, the top five were Liam, Noah, Oliver, Theodore and Henry. What happened to good old fashioned names like Neil and Toby?
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C
All it shows is that we are one of a kind. Neil. They also have data on the fastest rising baby names. This is courtesy of the New York Post. For boys, it was Kasai, meaning fire in Japanese and Swahili, which jumped 1108 spots to enter the top a thousand for the first time. For girls, it was the name Clarity, which is a misspelling of the word clarity. So it's Clarity with a K instead of Clarity with a C that led all risers. It was up 1396 spots into the top 1000 as well. In terms of the top male names that have decreased in popularity, there's Kareem, Kazakh, Kai and Landon. For girls, it's Aubrey, Catalya, JC and Zendaya declined the most in popularity. I thought Zendaya was having a pretty good year. I thought she'd be on the rise.
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B
Yeah, the drama wasn't that good.
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C
Oh, there you go.
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B
So people decided not to go with that. Okay, now a word from our sponsor, AT&T Business. Toby, I've always wanted to ask you this. As a small business owner, how do you troubleshoot problems? Because they must come up.
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C
That's easy.
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Total emotional breakdown and then.
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C
Oh, is there supposed to be a step two.
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B
Well what if you could spend less time fixing problems and more time focusing on customers and growth. That's the difference reliable connectivity from AT and T business can make and it
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C
means more time building the business you actually care about and not managing Internet issues, which often is the source of total emotional breakdowns.
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Explore connectivity solutions that can transform along with your growing business at att.com/small business
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C
AI companies are hungry, hungry for semiconductors, and it's turning the chip industry into the hottest sector of the stock market. The Wall Street Journal calls it the Great chip stock melt up of 2026. SanDisk, which provides memory to AI data centers, is up 558% this year. South Korea's stock market has nearly doubled, driven by huge run ups in Samsung and SK Hynix. And any ETF related to the industry is parting like it's 1999. Perhaps most emblematic of this insane run up is Intel. Yes, the same intel that has mostly fossilized into a dinosaur over the past decade is seeing its shares go parabolic, up 239% already this year, as its bet on fabricating its own chips is paying off in droves. What do I mean when I say chips? Because it's sort of a broad category at this point. For a While, chips meant GPUs, graphics processing units, the type of tech that Nvidia specializes in. GPUs are used to wrangle the vast amounts of data needed to train AI models. But now traditional CPUs computer processing units are back in demand too, after the rise of AI agents that can work on task 24. Seven require vast amounts of memory. GPUs, CPUs, Doritos lays companies are buying whatever chips they can get their hands on, and investors are piling in. The semiconductor sector of The S&P 500 added roughly $3.8 trillion to its market cap in the past six weeks. Neil, we haven't seen chips be this in demand since I brought two tubs of guac and no Tostitos to your super bowl party.
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B
I know, and then we had to scoop it out with our hands. All nasty. No? Lots of comparisons here to the dot com bubble in 1999, which didn't exactly end well. In fact, the top stocks now are doing better than in 1999. The top 10 performers in the NASDAQ 100 over the past year are up an average of 784%, according to BTIG the in the March 2020 peak, the rise was of the top 10 tech stocks was just 622% on average. So right now we're seeing a melt up, a chip stock melt up that's even greater than in 1999.
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C
One of the big distinctions though is that there is revenue underpinning this stock run up as well. Just look at Micron. Micron is another company that deals with memory chips. Their 2023 revenue was $15.5 billion. Pretty big company right there. 2026 expected revenue is $107 billion mainly because memory is just so constrained at this point. Every single company is buying whatever chips they can get their hands on. So if you want to look at the biggest difference between 1999 and now is that profits are underpinning these stock run ups and that is a major differentiation because you don't want the stocks going parabolic without any, you know, real business case. Underneath there is the business case.
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B
That's what happened.com bubble One of the huge winners here, and you mentioned it briefly, is South Korea's stock market is dominated by Samsung and SK Hynix which make memory chip. Samsung recently became a $1 trillion company and South Korea's stock market is now in the world's top seven. It leapfrogged Canada to be in that top seven. It's up almost more than 71% this year. So if you're looking for just vertical charts everywhere, but especially in South Korea, things are going just. It's a banana chart.
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C
I think one of the tickers that is most emblematic of this run up is something called Soxel. That is a chip focus ETF but it's not a normal chip focus ETF. It's a 3x daily performance ETF which basically is exactly what it sounds like. You get 300% of the daily returns or the daily drawdowns. That is one of the top traded tickers on interactive brokers right now. That's emblematic of what retail traders are piling into. So people want exposure to the chip industry in such great demand that they're willing to triple their losses and their gains by investing in the soxel. Maybe a sign of a frothy bubble because that is something that is not a wise, you know, what do you leverage? I don't think Warren Buffett is levering up to invest in soxel. But yeah, I think that shows the moment that we're currently operating in now.
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B
The memory crunch giveth and the memory crunch take it away. And one, one of the companies that is not doing well because of the memory crunch is Nintendo and other consumer electronics companies because now they're going to have to pay more for memory that goes inside their products. Nintendo stock is down more than 50% in the past six months and on Friday announced it would have to hike the price of the Switch 2 by $50 to $500 beginning it's in September. It also forecast forecast a 17% drop in SW sales this year because of those price hikes and other headwinds facing the consumer electronics industry. So these chip stocks that are actually making the chips, the CPUs that are so integral to agents, all the memory, Micron, Intel, Sandisk, they're crushing it. But then if you actually make the products, I mean we saw this on Apple's, Apple's earnings call recently that they're going to have to pay more for memory and then they might have to raise prices for consumers as a result. Either way, this chip stock melt up is doing wonders for the actual stock market, for the broader stock market. So your portfolio is doing well. On Friday, both the S and P and Nasdaq posted their sixth straight winnings week which was the longest streak since 2024. Moving on, we haven't had this kind of bowling controversy since Walter said he doesn't roll on the Chavez. A group of passionate bowlers has sued Lucky Strike Entertainment, accusing the bowling giant of using its monopoly level control to jack up prices, promote drinking and gambling and destroy what had been an affordable, wholesome hobby for America's middle class. The 11 plaintiffs seeking class action status claim Lucky Strike is responsible for, quote unquote, the veritable destruction of the decades old pastime of bowling in America. They say Lucky Strike has a plan to be the Starbucks of bowling. Using private equity money to buy up competitors all over the country, then running a predatory business model that alienated, quote, virtually every customer except those who have no interest in bowling. Lucky Strike called the lawsuit meriless and intended solely to generate headlines. Quote, at the expense of a company that has spent more than three decades expanding opportunities for the sport of bowling in the communities we serve. Lucky Strike is big. It's the world's largest owner and operator of bowling centers, according to the suit, accounting for about 35% of the industry's revenue in the U.S. it'll now be up to the court system to determine whether that Pete Weber level dominance is an illegal monopoly.
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C
I mean, the price tags that are cited in this lawsuit are genuinely shocking. Go to a bowl at Lucky tight strike Times Square, which I don't recommend doing, but for four guests for two hours on a Friday, that's $156. If that is after 4pm that jumps to $270. One California family was quoted $400 to bowl over the holidays. I don't know how big that family was, but it's just emblematic of what Lucky Strike does or what the lawsuit is alleging electricity strike does, which is you come into a market, you buy up all of the lanes nearby and now you can charge whatever you want. They are trying to foist more alcohol on participants. They've de emphasized league play. So that used to be an affordable way to arrive to the alley. You know, share a picture for 10 bucks, share the the lanes for a couple of hours and both your friends. Now it's all about getting families in, getting people drunk, making them spend more money. And it's just not a pure bowling experience anymore.
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B
Right. Seems like the plaintiffs here are kind of intense bowlers and they are bemoaning how Lucky Strike has allegedly turned bowling centers, it's not lanes as bowling centers into basically a nightclub atmosphere. And they have this app that they are saying promotes gambling and they basically get you in and then upcharge you for food and drink. And that is their main business model. Now a really interesting wrinkle in this particular suit is is the lawyers who are representing the plaintiffs. It's a firm called Simonson Sussman and they are formed from former FTC commission officials who worked under the antitrust crusader Lina Khan. Now Lina Khan was during the Biden administration, remember she brought tons of suits against tech companies and other companies for being monopolies. And it seems like they are sort of taking that and moving into the private sector and now lodging first big suit against Lucky Strike. And now when, remember when Lucky Strike in their statement said this was solely intended to generate headlines. Well, they're saying that this is a marketing tactic by this new firm to get generate headlines. So to get their name out there, it is working.
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C
I mean we're certainly talk about them. But you are right, it is showing how, you know, these private class actions is taking the place of what the FTC used to do. I just am mad at Lucky Strike for changing its name to Lucky Strike because it was Bowlero. They had the stock ticker bull, which is amazing. Then they acquired Lucky Strike and now stock ticker is luck. And I feel like that's everything that's wrong with this company at this point. They deemphasize bull. They are emphasizing luck instead as a pure bull or myself, you know, bring back the bull. Ticker.
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B
Now, if you're in the mood to just learn more about bowling, well, there's a new HBO documentary on. On about bowling, and it aims to put some respect on Bolling's name because for decades we've seen, we've heard how bowling is dying, and that actually is representative of the decay of American social life. And basically this. This documentary suggests that bowling is way more popular than anyone gives it credit for. More than 67 million people in the US bowl at least once a year. That's according to the Bowling Proprietors association of America. That is way more than pickleball, of course. That's 24 million. Basketball, 36 million. Tennis, 27 million. Golf, 48 million. So all of these other sports that we think are really popular, actually bowling crushes them.
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C
I joined the league recently. It's incredible. Everyone shows up in their matching shirts. Some people are busting out their own balls. There seems to be a reverse correlation between the person who brings their ball and how well they actually bowl. But no more bowling alone. Join the ball.
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B
What is your. What's your top score?
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C
I have broken 200 a couple of times. I've actually bowled 234 before, so pretty good. I'm a spinner, you know, I would like to.
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B
I would like to have you on my team. Okay. Welcome to Winners of the Weekend, the segment where Toby and I pick two things. Things that opened up the beach house for the season. I won the pre show bowling league, so I get to go first. My winner is anyone who shouts go blue. At the top of their lungs on Saturdays. In the fall, the University of Michigan has hit the jackpot by being revealed as one of the earliest investors into Open AI. And we only know this because of the Elon Musk for Sam Altman trial underway in the Bay Area. As part of that trial, documents were released showing that investors running Michigan's endowments invested $20 million into a very early fundraising round in OpenAI, well before most people have heard of the small AI lab and Microsoft plowing billions into it beginning in 2019. Speaking of billions, that's how much the University of Michigan stands to benefit from its prescient bet on OpenAI. With the company now valued at over $850 billion, the endowment expects to earn 2 billion on its investment, which would be a tidy 9,900% return. There are implications beyond a stronger balance sheet and bragging rights over Ohio State. Many sports fans were quick to point out that because of its OpenAI windfall, Michigan could now have the upper hand in the nil market because remember, colleges pay their top players now and Michigan is rolling in the dough. Not to mention they just won the men's college basketball championship. Toby, it appears I went to the wrong U of M. You were right
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C
where you needed to be, Neal, because now you are here doing a podcast with me. The early Investor cluster of OpenAI is very funny because there's Khosla Ventures $50 million, Reid Hoffman's fund put in $50 million, a Y Combinator fund put in $10 million. These are the who's who of Silicon Valley. And then you just have the University of Michigan in there as well. They are ahead of Microsoft, like in terms of the payout structure. They get paid before even Microsoft does. So just an incredibly bold bet for an endowment like this to, you know, be on the forefront of a new tech wave in Silicon Valley.
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B
Right. It is not rare for endowments to invest alongside Silicon Valley venture capitalists. So I could put money into Khosa Ventures or Reid Hoffman, who's the founder of LinkedIn's fund. That is something that is common for endowments do. It is much rare for them to do a direct stake like this because venture capital early stage companies can go bust much more often than they can turn into whatever open air is now. But there have been a few fun examples of endowments or schools making these bold bets early on in in companies and then profiting wildly. When there is an IPO in 2017, there's a a Catholic high school also in the Bay Area. They put a little money into Snap when they were an early company. When SNAP IPO in 2017, this high school made $24 million.
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Not bad. Good for their football budget as well as for the trial that you mentioned because that's still going on between OpenAI and Elon Musk. It looks like the star witness so far has been the diary entries of the Open Air co founder Greg Brockman that's being read aloud in court. One of those quotes from his diary is can't see us turning this into a for profit without a very nasty fight. It'd be wrong to steal the nonprofit from him being Elon Musk. That'd be pretty morally bankrupt. So again this is kind of litigating. Did open I kind of pull the wool over Elon's eyes. Pull a fast one and turn it for a nonprofit into a for profit entity by while using his funding. And these diary entries are saying at least when it comes to the moral case, they were well aware of what they were doing here. As for the actual case itself, neither side is looking all that good because Elon Musk has been trying to say that, hey, I'm the altruist. I'm being played for a fool right now. I'm just fighting to save humanity. And the judge, Gonzalez Rogers says, warned him to knock off the theatrics about human extinction because he's not, you know, a little old, poor me. He was aware of potentially the profitable outcome of this as well. So that case is still ongoing right now, with a lot more juicy kind of diary entries potentially to be read.
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And Sam Altman is going to have to testify this week. There's also been a very popular meme coming from the trial, which is the text between Miramurati and Sam Altman. As member 2022, Sam Altman was booted from his position and then brought back by the board just a few days later. It was so much leadership drama. So as those discussions were taking place, Mirati, who is an executive at OpenAI at the time, was texting Sam Altman. And Sam Altman asked her, can you indicate directionally good or bad? And she replies, directionally, very bad. And then Sam Almond goes, okay, so that that sort of sentiment can be applied to a wide variety of contexts. Directionally, very bad.
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All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with my Winner of the Weekend right after this.
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If you're not using AI correctly, you're almost certainly falling behind your competitors. That's why there's netsuite. It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR and CRM into a single source of truth.
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C
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B
If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, get our free business guide demystifying AI at netsuite.com/brew that's netsuite.com/brew hey Toby, here's a bill for you. It's my fee.
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C
What? How am I supposed to pay this on short notice or at all?
- [18:09]
B
That's a question countless employees ask themselves when they're saddled with an unexpected expected medical bill not covered by health insurance. And understandably, financial stress can cause lost productivity.
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C
This missed work can really cost employers annually. That's why Aflac works to pay claims quickly and accurately to help foster employee peace of mind.
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B
And offering Aflac plans comes at no direct cost to businesses. Toby, I take cash or card?
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C
Learn more at aflac.com/morning brew daily that's affleck.com/morning brew daily
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B
Toby what are you doing to build your wealth?
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C
I joined this pyramid thing or whatever and now if I convince all my friends to join, I'll make bank.
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B
Okay, well for those of you who are actually serious about investing and building wealth, there's public.com with their modern investing
- [18:56]
C
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- [19:03]
B
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C
of the weekend is some fun IPOs coming down the pipeline. Dunkin Donuts is set to make its public debut after its parent company, Inspire Brands filed to go public on Friday. It's more of a reappearance than a debut. Dunkin first went public decades ago, then was taken private, only to reemerge in 2011 before being taken private again in 2020. Now it's riding a hot streak to come back to your brokerage account, along with a bunch of other chains under the Inspire brand, including Baskin Robbins, Sonic, Jimmy John's, Arby's and Buffalo Wild Wings. The other fun IPO we have is the scooter company Lime. Lime has also taken a topsy turvy ride to the public markets. It raised money at a $2.4 billion valuation in 2019. Then it took a massive haircut raising at a $510 million valuation a year later after the pandemic made micro mobility companies less attractive. And now it too is targeting a comeback at a $2 billion valuation. Lime has recorded losses every year since its founding, but a partnership with Uber has kickstarted revenue growth again to nearly 30% last year. And now the public markets are calling Neil Dunkin and Lime a pretty gross drink combination. But a fun IPO combination Would you buy Duncan stock?
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B
Is a great question to ask yourself, and it probably depends on whether you do it before you drink a massive iced coffee loaded up with cream and sugar the way I like it, or after. Let's go back to the last time Dunkin was public, 2011 to 2020. It did pretty well. It rose more than more than 460% from its IPO price until it was taken private, which is more than double the S and P gain over those years. So excited to see Duncan kind of divulge its financials because we we don't know how Dunkin is doing or Buffalo Wild Wings or Arby's or any of these other companies because it's been under private management. So the way we dissect Starbucks earnings and Dutch Bros. And all of these other companies, all these rivals of Dunkin Donuts, because they do these quarterly reporting, you know, we just don't know about Dunkin. So it'll be interesting to see what those executives have to say about its business. Looks like they're aiming for a valuation of $20 billion, which is much bigger than the other, a really big consumer food IPO that's coming down the pipeline, which is Jersey Mike's said it would go public this year at about a $12 billion valuation.
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C
And then as for Lime, Lime is a funny company because it was sort of emblematic of the micro mobility era. That alongside Bird was a pretty big, you know, Silicon Valley era where, like, we're going to get around cities this way on these scooters and these bikes and whatnot. They have a very funny tidbit in their S1, which is the document you submit when you're considering going public. Road quality of the cities that they operate in is cited as a risk factor. Specifically, they list out the word potholes because potholes are not kind to scooters. So when you're trying to forecast, you know, the lifetime value of one of their scooters, potholes does make a very big difference. So imagine you're pouring through, you know, Pittsburgh's road data and how much they actually cities invest in the road quality. That has a major impact on Lime's ability to turn a profit. So fix your potholes if you want to invest in Lime.
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B
And this industry has had a lot of potholes because, yeah, back in 2017, it was a kind of Bird, which was. Which was Lime's rival, was the fastest startup to ever achieve a $1 billion valuation. Venture capitalists are throwing tons of money behind micro mobility, and this was expected to be a huge industry. But Bird went public in 2021 via SPAC and it actually went bankrupt. So it's a tough industry to make the economics work. And right now, Lime is not profitable, but it seems like it. It has this really cozy relationship with Uber, which is a major investor and stakeholder, and that's helped it. A chunk like 14% of Lime's revenue came through its partnership with Uber, according to that S1. Because if you go to the Uber app and you want to book a E bike or a scooter, then you'll do that through lime. And you know I'm all for micro mobility. I remember this was, you know, we all debated this back in 2017 and 2018. This was the thing that got everybody's, you know, hair in a bunch was what what to do about the scooter problem. So it'll be fun to see it go public.
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C
My favorite recent lime fact too is that they just came to London and they've had a very successful debut in London. But the lime scooter's top speed is less than the top speed of Sebastian Saway who runs they sub two hour marathon at the London so imagine you're on a lime scooter and you're losing ground to the runners over 26.2 miles.
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B
It's Monday, so here's what you need to know to stay ahead in the week. Ahead in a meeting that could not have been an email, President Trump will head to Beijing on Thursday for a two day in person summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two most powerful men in the world will discuss the war in Iran first and foremost, but also trade, Taiwan, AI and other thorny issues betwixt the rival superpowers. A small group of corporate executives will join Trump in China, hoping to secure deals including the CEOs of Boeing and Citi.
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C
Yeah, some of the expected wins are these Boeing plane purchases working out a deal around them. Maybe some American agriculture in energy buys, possibly extending the rare earths deal that was struck back in last autumn. Very similar stuff that was on the table back in that meeting in October. Also though, there are the wars that are going on right now. So Trump is leaning on G to push Iran into a deal to end the conflict. Same thing goes too for Russia because China provides both those regimes with weapons exports. So in addition to the trade deals that will be on the table, it's so in addition to the trade meeting, this is also a test on whether the economic leverage Trump can put on Beijing can move them on those two conflicts as well.
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On Wall street, the fireworks arrive tomorrow morning with a Consumer Price Index inflation report. Last month's report showed inflation surging 0.9% in March, the biggest jump in almost four years, driven primarily by higher gas prices from the war in Iran. With a strait of Hormuz still blocked, April's reading is expected to show another sizable jump in inflation, 0.6%.
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C
And I tell you what, inflation will be someone else's problem besides Jerome Powell is because Kevin Walsh is officially replacing him as Fed Chair this Friday the 15th. Jerome Powell is going to be on a beach, sipping a Corona, not caring about gas prices or beef supply shocks or anything. Just vibing, but also just kidding. He's staying on as a fed governor and we'll still very much be thinking about inflation.
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B
Well, maybe we'll have some time, a little more time to watch sports because there is lots going on this week. The WNBA season has tipped off the first since the players and the league agreed to a historic labor deal that resulted in a huge pay boost for the women ballers. The men are playing basketball and hockey, too, with the NBA and NHL playoffs wrapping up their second rounds. And in golf, the second major of the season, the PGA Championship, tees off at a Rhonda Mink Golf Club outside of Philly on Thursday.
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C
Wait, I missed the Sixers game? What? What happened there? Neal, I think your best hope is to wait for the Philadelphia WNBA expansion team to arrive in 2030. Then you might advance past the second round. Speaking of Philly, though, I am locked in on Iron Mick. I've played it multiple times on the indoor golf simulator. And I tell you what, I could win a major indoors with no wind on. Very even lies. Iron Mick is going to be a fun time.
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B
I'm just glad you don't know anything about hockey because you can't teach me about the Flyers, who also got swept.
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C
I'm not. Okay, shoot. I should. Let's run this back. Let me. Let me make fun of the Flyers, too.
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B
Okay. Finally, in movies, the hoity toity Cannes Film Festival begins in France on Tuesday, where top indie filmmakers and auteurs will vie for the vaunted top prize, the Palme d'. Or. But more importantly, a movie near and dear to all our hearts is coming back to theaters this weekend to celebrate its 25th anniversary. Shrek 25 years since Shrek. I'm guessing it aged like an onion.
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C
It it aged like a fine onion wine. That'll do, Donkey. The soundtrack specifically has aged impeccably. I'm like, hey, now you're a rock star. Shrek is up there specifically. I feel like for my generation, it is like the canon movie of our youths. So I would go see it in the theater once more. It really is one of them. I would put it top five.
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B
Everyone would be just like saying though, every single line, you know, every theater. So it would be a good time. Did you know it was the first movie to win the Academy Award for best animated film? That was their first year. Shrek1. Great trivia tidbit.
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C
I literally thought you're going to say best picture as well. I was like, it's your best picture.
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B
That is all right. That is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful start to your week. If you'd like to reach us, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom or DM us on Instagram at Daily Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our supervisor. Producer Raymond Liu is our senior producer. Our producer is Olivia Graham and our associate producer is Olivia Lake. Be more original Girls Technical direction by Nina Miller. Hair and makeup is Bowling Alone. Devin Emery is our president, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
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C
Great show, Danielle. Let's run it back tomorrow.