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DoorDash Ups Delivery Reign with $5B Deals & Tariffs Hurt Weddings?
00:31:20
DoorDash makes some big buys & the wedding biz feels tariffs
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- [00:01]
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- [00:36]
Neal Freyman
Brew Daily Show I'm Neal Freyman.
- [00:38]
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
- [00:39]
Neal Freyman
Today, Canadian leader Mark Carney visited the White House as tensions heat up ahead of the Dallas Winnipeg series. Oh, and the trade war too.
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Toby Howell
Then a terrifying flesh eating fly species is coming for America's cattle. It's Wednesday, May 7th. Let's ride.
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Neal Freyman
Flying within the United States is about to get Today is the deadline for US Adults to present a real ID at airports to fly domestically, the culmination of a process that began all the way back in 2005 but was delayed numerous times. If you don't have a real ID yet, don't cancel your plans. Homeland Security says you'll still be able to fly just after a few additional identity checks. Plus a passport or another TSA approved form of ID will also get you through to your gate. Still, posing as a 25 year old Hawaiian organ donor probably isn't going to cut it anymore.
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Toby Howell
Hey, I've been getting away with using my Costco card at the airport for the last few years, so I really got to get on it. Hopefully it doesn't add to the craziness that is already happening at airports like Newark due to the air traffic controller issues. The Department of Homeland Security did say that 81% of travelers already have real IDs or are compliant with real ideas, so hopefully things don't get too crazy. But if I were you guys, maybe show up an extra hour or two early for your flights.
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Neal Freyman
You have your real id?
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Toby Howell
I do have my real id. I didn't even notice that. I didn't know it until I googled. How do you know? Got that little star in the upper right corner. So we're all good here. And now a word from our sponsor, Planet O Neal. You know, sometimes the best part of the day is the smallest thing.
- [02:19]
Neal Freyman
Totally. For instance, Yesterday I found $100 bill on the sidewalk on the way to work. It's the small things.
- [02:25]
Toby Howell
Exactly tiny wins. Wait, you found 100 bucks? I found a penny. Anyways, for me, lately it's been planted out in my morning coffee.
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Neal Freyman
It's such a small swap, but it really changes everything. Makes your cup richer, creamier, smoother. Speaking of richer, did I mention I found 100 bucks?
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Toby Howell
You did. But did I mention Planet out is not just for coffee? It also hits in cereal smoothies, even straight from the glass. It's like the utility player of your fridge.
- [02:51]
Neal Freyman
Unsweetened, has zero grams of sugar and still tastes like it's cheating. And barista lovers leg cafe level tastes like 100 bucks.
- [02:58]
Toby Howell
Okay, you are definitely buying lunch today. Get your hands on the oat milk that has it all. Visit planetoat.com for more.
- [03:05]
Neal Freyman
One of the last times the US met Canada, there were three fights in the first nine seconds. Their most recent meeting was a little more cordial and also not a hockey game. Yesterday, newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made a highly anticipated visit to the White House for a chat with President Trump at a time when the economic ties between the two North American neighbors are fraying like never before. Trump has repeatedly accused Canada, and did so again before yesterday's meeting of leaching off the US's economy, posting on social media there's no reason for us to be subsidizing Canada. Since entering office, he's instituted 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, excluding products covered by a free trade agreement, as well as tariffs on steel, aluminum and cars, which Canada ships in droves to the US. Trump has also insisted that Canada become the 51st state, angering the people who live there. Carney, meanwhile, is a former central banker who's promoted economic nationalism, and his defiance of Trump helped him get elected last week in a massive come from behind victory. So awkward might be a good word to describe the lead up to their meeting yesterday. But in the end, it was far from a Zelensky level blow up and pretty much chummy with Trump saying he respected Carney and Carney calling Trump a transformational president. However, making Canada the 51st state did come up, and Carney replied to a reporter, it's not for sale. It won't be for sale. Ever. Trump quipped. Never say never. Okay, Toby, we had this big meeting. Things seem to go okay, but still no progress on a trade deal is made. And with these heavy tariffs on the books, the Canadian and U.S. economies are increasingly splintering in profound ways.
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Toby Howell
Yeah, despite this relatively chummy meeting, you are right that the US and Canada are not jumping back into bed with each Other to do business. Because think about business owners. They want things like stability. They banks want stability. If they're lending money, private equity firms want stability. And what do we not have right now between the US And Canada when it comes to trade relations? Stability. So Canada is looking at kind of their dependence on the US and re evaluating here because right now Canada depends on the US for 75% of its exports. That is a huge number. Obviously, their manufacturing sector ships 42% of its output to the US as well. So now you're seeing companies kind of reevaluate and say, hey, where are other customers? Can we look to the Asian markets potentially to replace the U.S. can we focus on distributing, not exclusively to this one market that's typically made up most of our sales? Can we reduce the amount of sales coming in for the US So you are just seeing this kind of reevaluation when it comes to who we're relying on for trade partners, if you are a Canadian business.
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Neal Freyman
And it's worth remembering amid all the talk between the U.S. and China, that the U.S. and Canada are each other's largest trading partners. The two exchanged $916 billion in goods and services last year. Yes, Canada sent 75% of its exports to the United States. But the United states also sends $350 billion worth of goods to Canada. And now Canada has retaliated with $44 billion with tariffs on $44 billion worth of goods like alcohol and things like that. So there is an economic pain happening in the other direction too. And you're already seeing trade levels plummet between these two countries. In March, Canadian exports to the US fell 6.6%. That doesn't sound like a ton, but it is the biggest drop since the COVID 19 pandemic. And then imports from United States to Canada fell 3%.
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Toby Howell
And if we look even smaller at just tiny border towns in Washington that rely on a lot of Canadian tourists to survive, they're seeing a lot of pain there as well. One grocery store said that we've seen sales drop 30% because no one's coming into the US anymore. And then this was a very funny detail from a Bloomberg report. There is a rubber duck museum that used to be located in the US and again, most of its customers came from Canada, but they relocated over the border because they could dodge some of the tariffs on Chinese goods because a lot of the rubber ducks were sourced from China. So again, that's a very small scale example, but it just shows you how this decoupling is affected. Everyone from very large businesses to, you know, rubber duck museums, the travel industry.
- [07:21]
Neal Freyman
Really has been the poster child of this economic fraying. Just recently, WestJet, which is Canada's second largest airline, canceled a planned flight from Vancouver to Austin. It was the first nonstop flight between these two cities. And they just said, well, the demand wasn't there. And you just go down the line from the earnings reports this year, you see Airbnb saying, we see Canada's Canadians are traveling at a much lower rate to the United States. Hyatt called it a flyover where Canadians are still traveling, but they're just flying over the United States to Mexico. Booking holdings, another travel giant. Canadians are traveling less to the US but we see them traveling to Mexico more at the moment. Delta Airlines, a significant drop off in bookings from Canada. United Airlines said Canadian passenger volumes to the US were down 9% year over year. So I mean, they're just really. There's a quite a precipitous plunge in Canadians coming to the United States. That is a fact that every single company who deals with this is saying.
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Toby Howell
Maybe they just don't have real ideas. No, they have their passwords. DoorDash reported earnings yesterday that exceeded expectations and did what any of us would do when we're feeling ourselves a little go shopping. The US Delivery company announced two major acquisitions yesterday, showing it's got more global ambitions than shuttling a burrito in a private chariot to your doorstep. The first announcement was an agreement to buy the London based delivery company Deliveroo for just under $4 billion. Then hours later, it snapped up the hospitality tech company Seven Rooms for $1.2 billion. DoorDash's vision is to break out of a US market that it has essentially taken over, having already won about two thirds of the domestic food delivery space. With Deliveroo in the fold, DoorDash's reach expands to over 40 countries in a combined 50 million monthly active users, establishing it as the biggest player in the global as well. Speaking of the global market, a main DoorDash competitor also did a little shopping of its own yesterday with Uber buying a controlling stake in the Turkish delivery app trendy old Go. It all adds up to an industry that is in its consolidation era after a slowdown from pandemic era highs, clearing the way for a heavyweight like DoorDash to expand their lead.
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Neal Freyman
It is bulking season in the delivery industry. You mentioned Uber bought this Turkish delivery app process and also in Europe agreed to buy Amsterdam's Just Eat Takeaway, which is a big delivery competitor in Europe. Wonder Group, which Is this delivery startup founded by Jet.com's Marc Lore bought Grubhub earlier this year. That is that company is now worth $7 billion. So you are seeing a lot of consolidation in this industry, which really has weathered the post pandemic slump, I think a lot better than anyone expected. DoorDash became profitable in the last year, reported really strong earnings. And if you go down the line from these earnings reports from these delivery companies, they're saying we're, we're fine. Like I don't know what McDonald's and these other, you know, Starbucks and these other companies are talking about a nervous consumer who's pulling back. I mean, DoorDash CEO Tony Xu said we haven't seen any changes in consumer behavior, even if there are changes in consumer sentiment. Instacart CFO got up there and said, no, I haven't seen any signs of a weaker consumer. Uber CEO Dara Khosrow Sahi called his company recession, recession resistant. So to a T, these companies are saying we're doing perfectly fine. I don't know what everyone else is.
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Toby Howell
And some companies that you mentioned are even expanding, launching into new markets. Instacart was one that you mentioned. They just launched a new drinks and snack delivery app called Fizz. This is a alcohol and snack delivery specific app that allows you to actually split the cost amongst your friends if you're hosting a party. So instead of just having one person buy all the alcohol and then venmoing them later, they think that they should, you should do that within their app called Fizz because they said young people love doing this. It used to be in the olden days, like the hosts would determine the menu, determine what people are drinking and bear a lot of the costs. Now millennials and Gen Z, they want to spread it across their friends. Everyone wants a say in what they're actually going to be eating and drinking. So they launched a standalone app there. So you're right, it's another data point that some of these delivery companies are saying we are seeing not only that we're doing fine right now, but opportunities for expansion into new market.
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Neal Freyman
They want to go after the frat party market. Yeah, we'll see how that works out. Okay, moving on. A vicious flesh eating fly has broken a biological barrier in Central America. And officials warned hordes of them are on their way to wreak economic havoc and do other really gross stuff in the United States. It's not the plot of a new Stephen King novel. This is actually happening. The screw worm whose larvae eat their Host from the Inside out has marched up into Mexico this year and is freaking out American agriculture officials who warn we're not prepared for all the flesh eating that's about to come. If you were born in the 1920s and lived in Texas, you are very familiar with the old screw worm. It devastated livestock in the south for decades, costing the US Economy hundreds of millions of dollars each year. I mean, this thing can kill a full grown steer in just 10 days. But after the US government, working in tandem with Mexican and Central American partners, poured tons of resources into monitoring and eradicating these flesh eaters, screw worms have been virtually absent from the country, saving the American consumer more than $1 billion every year on BE by 1974 or $6.5 billion today. Now the screw worm is back on the move while our defenses are down. More than 950 cases have been reported in Mexico so far this year, with the potential to infest American livestock and also decimate wildlife like deer, hogs, squirrels, and raccoons. As one USDA inspection leader said, I'm now very nervous almost to the point of being scared. Toby, are we screwed?
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Toby Howell
I am nervous to the point of being scared, Neal. These things are called flying piranhas because they descend upon livestock, they lay their larvae, and their larvae literally eat their way out from the inside. Do not Google this. Do not Google image search this, because it is as gross as it sounds. But yeah, back in the 1930s, scientists did have this major breakthrough. We're like, wait, we can sterilize these flies? It can really keep down populations and hurt the ability of them to reproduce. And by 1950s, they were using literal airplanes to drop millions upon millions of these sterilized flies per week over infected areas, which obviously did wonders to, you know, keeping these in check. And we actually did set up a factory to produce these things alongside the Panama government in the narrowest part of Central America. That's been the most fascinating thing is that these flies cannot travel over water. So we literally went to the narrowest landmass we could find, set up a production factory that can, that can pump out millions upon millions of these sterilized screw worms every single week and use that to kind of control outbreaks as they happen. But as with most things in life, as you get further and further away from that initial fear which was decimating the cattle industry, you know, all those years ago, people kind of forgot about it. A lot of veterinarians don't even know how to identify screws anymore, which is why it's creeping back into like the lexicon and into the agricultural industry. We just forgot that it was a problem because these sterilization efforts were so successful. But, yeah, I am with the USDA official. I am a little bit nervous myself.
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Neal Freyman
Right. They've broken through for a number of reasons. I mean, the big overarching one is that we just don't care as much anymore. We haven't invested so many resources into this problem. Staffing for inspectors of cattle crossing the border has been reduced. And then when you talk about sterile fly production, they produce these infertile males that they bomb on populations to render their populations zero. They've been struggling with supply chain issues around Covid. At the same time, illegal transport of cattle across borders has increased. And then also there's just been more migration of humans coming from the Darien gap in Panama, where this biological barrier had been formed over a very narrow area of land. So all of these factors are swirling to create this northernward march of screw worms. And officials are clearly freaked out.
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Toby Howell
And not to make you even more freaked out, but the parasite does thrive in warmer weather. What else is coming up? Summer. So if that doesn't make you more nervous, the hot weather could lead to an infestation that kind of runs unchecked. And by the way, this would impact American consumers because again, cattle supplies, they've been tight for a while now. So any damages to, you know, American cattle herds would drive up the cost of beef. And it is one of those situations that we saw with the avian flu and affecting egg prices. A similar things could happen with screw worms and beef prices.
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Neal Freyman
And one fun fact is that Texas was famous for producing the country's top rodeo champions in the 50s. And that's because the ranch hands were so good at roping and cutting cattle out of herds to check for screw room. So if you go through the rodeo leaderboards in the 50s, which I often do, you will just see Texas, Texas people just consistently near the top. And that's a direct link to the screw room infestation. They just had to get so good at inspecting them.
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Toby Howell
Thanks for leaving us on a positive note there, Neil. Up next, we're going to talk about weddings. Neil, you know that one friend who holds the group together, like when you're on a trip abroad, they've checked the weather, done the research, and know the currency conversion.
- [16:47]
Neal Freyman
Without them, we'd be lost, literally and figuratively.
- [16:50]
Toby Howell
And here's the good news. Wise business can be that friend for.
- [16:53]
Neal Freyman
Your global business wise makes it easy for you to process payments, get paid and manage your money internationally, Wise helps.
- [17:00]
Toby Howell
You manage your business's finances in 40 plus currencies, all with no hidden fees, no markups on the exchange rate, and no ongoing subscription costs. It's fast too.
- [17:09]
Neal Freyman
Sounds like a business's best friend.
- [17:11]
Toby Howell
To learn more about how you can use Wise Business to save time, money and stress, visit visit wise.combusiness that's wise.com business.
- [17:23]
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- [17:52]
Toby Howell
Wedding planning is stressful enough as is, but tariffs are making everything about 145% more stressful for brides to be despite a 90 day pause on most tariffs, most vendors have jacked up prices on everything from dresses to flowers in response to the expected import fees. One Reddit user shared how her custom made wedding dress now costs fifteen hundred dollars more than when she ordered it due to tariff related charges. Other brides are trying to get ahead of any price rises by stocking up on candles and flower vases, even if their nuptials aren't until 2026 and beyond. Weddings really are ground zero for price hikes. Not only are they running families on average $33,000 according to the Knot, but also most of what makes a wedding feel like a wedding comes from foreign countries. About 90% of wedding dresses are manufactured in China, according to a VP of the National Bridal Retailers Association. Even mundane things like tablecloths and chairs are going up in price as vendors who order from overseas pass those fees on to customers. Neil getting hitched who is it expensive and getting even more so?
- [19:01]
Neal Freyman
I know. And you're starting to see these couples start to do things like trade down. Because when you're doing a wedding like it's so expensive you were going to pinch pennies at every step along the way. So if something's going up in price, say flowers, you are probably going to get cheaper flowers. So you hear stories of couples going for getting flowers from like Trader Joe's or Costco. And some are warning that weddings will go back to what was known as the millennial garbage core of 2014, when you saw mason jars, milk crates and spray painted wine bottles with twine everywhere at weddings. So you are Seeing these, these tariffs really impact the wedding industry, which relies on a constellation of small businesses to supply things for your big day.
- [19:45]
Toby Howell
Yeah. Some other ways that brides and grooms are pinching pennies is instead of French or Italian wines, you go to American wines. Instead of, you know, using roses, you opt for carnations instead. Professional video videographers, very expensive. Just give your cousin an iPhone and let, let them cook. So people are being creative to solve these problems. And I do think, I mean, I went to a wedding where a lot of the tableware, at least the candlesticks were thrifted and it gave a very interesting and cool vibe to it as well. So it doesn't necessarily mean these things are worse if they are thrifted or secondhand like that. But I do think when you are seeing so many price is being passed on to consumers, I think we're going to see a rise in elopements. First of all, like, why even bother with all the expenses? And then the second thing that you can do is just pare down your guest list a lot, which, you know, no one really wants to do. But look for smaller weddings.
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Neal Freyman
They probably do.
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Toby Howell
Yeah.
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Neal Freyman
Actually now they have an excuse to.
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Toby Howell
That is a very good point. You get to know who your true friends are when the tariffs, you know, influence cost so much that, you know, you know what? We don't need my sorority sisters from college.
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Neal Freyman
Yeah. I mean, the economy does really have a big impact on weddings because it is such a discretionary purchase. I mean, in the aftermath of the financial Crisis More than 15 years ago, the average spend on weddings fell 8% over a two year period. That's according to the not so when people are looking at things that they can cut out of their life. When economic times get a little uncertain, I mean, the weddings are one of the first to go or at least like the fancy stuff at weddings. And really this is a consequence that will really have a big impact on small businesses. Over the course of the past weeks and months and days, we've talked a lot about how major companies have gotten up on earnings calls and said, we're going to take a $500 million hit off of our profits because of tariffs. We're going to have to raise prices. Things might get a little hairy for us, but they can weather the storm. And when you're talking about weddings and the wedding industry, it's photographers, it's florists, it's people who sell bridal gowns, people sell tuxedos. Those are a lot of the small businesses that make up your community. I'm sure everyone listening to this knows about that place where they got there, prom Tuxedo. So these are the people really feeling the impact and they're wondering, you know, what do we do? How do we work out with our customers when we have to, when we are facing price increases, we have to also hike prices on you or, you know, we can't stay in business.
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Toby Howell
Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Mattel CEO is not bullish on toy manufacturing returning to the US despite the massive tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, the head of the Barbie maker went on CNBC yesterday and threw cold water on the idea that toys can ever be made in usa. We don't see that happening, he said a day after applying his company's annual financial targets. He emphasized that while critical functions like design and engineering do take place and will remain in the US Manufacturing will continue to be outsourced because one it enables Mattel to offer their products at an affordable price. And by the end of 2025, less than 40% of Mattel's products will be sourced from China, with a goal to reduce that to below 25% within two years. But the company will still not shift that production to the US the end result is not exactly a Barbie dream house for American consumers, who should expect higher toy prices from one of the world's biggest toy makers.
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Neal Freyman
And the Toy Association, a US industry group representing 850 toy manufacturers, didn't warn just of price hikes for toys but also shortages. In its survey of 410 small businesses that make toys that populate our shelves every holiday season, the majority said they had canceled orders, and half said they risked going out of business within weeks or months. This this is an industry that relies a lot on China, and right now there are 145% tariffs on China. And so they are watching negotiations very closely because they are hanging on a thread in the cutthroat world of weight loss. If you don't adapt, you die. And Weight Watchers is the latest victim of the industry's transformation. The company wants a household name, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy last night to shed a heavy debt load and restructure as a healthier enterprise. Weight Watchers has watched weight loss trends pass it by, and it's been too slow to pivot. It did start offering drugs like Ozempic as part of its clinical business, but that hasn't been enough to offset a decline in its core programs of providing food consumption and exercise plans. Meanwhile, social media influencers and other Free fitness apps have stolen a lot of the health spotlight in recent years. Once Oprah left the board two years ago, the writing was on the wall.
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Toby Howell
Yeah, there is this big turnaround plan from a new CEO that tried to lean into telehealth coming out of the pandemic. That just didn't really work. It was too big of a change from, you know, the in person meetings and the portion control that Weight Watchers was known for. And then obviously Ozempic was a big hit to the business as well, even though they tried to jump on that train just a little too little, little too late. But yeah, I do think Oprah, who, you know, was Weight Watchers for a lot of people, in a lot of people's minds going on and saying that, hey, not only am I leaving the board, but also that she had used an unnamed weight loss drug to augment some of her weight loss. That was probably the beginning of the end for, you know, this once iconic company. For over a decade, travelers to the Wellington airport in New Zealand look to the sky to be greeted by a fantastical sight. Two giant eagles straight from Lord of the Rings hanging from the terminal ceiling, with one even carrying Gandalf on its back. These things are huge, with wingspans reaching over 50ft and weighing in at a ton each. Travelers have passed under their watchful gaze for 13 years now. But this month, the giant eagles will depart the terminal for good, with the airport CEO saying, it's been quite a Lord of the Rings heavy storytelling theme here. Now we're looking to change that to something new. It breaks my heart, one traveler responded, but it's not like the citizens of Middle Earth. I mean, New Zealand will be totally without their Lord of the Rings imagery. A giant sculpture of smog will still watch menacingly over the check encounters.
- [25:45]
Neal Freyman
Neal, I understand what they're going for here. I mean, the Lord of the Rings filmed there and it's been a part of that region for decades now. And millions of people pass through Wellington Airport to go see the sets and all, you know, how they, how they made those movies. And so I understand, like, you don't want that to be a yoke around your neck as a place and you're like, we have other stuff to trust us then Lord of the Rings when Peter Jackson came in and filmed all these movies, like, check out all our other stuff. We don't want to be so known for Lord of the Rings, just this one thing at the same time. It is so iconic and people loved it. So, you know, it is a Tough. It is a tough decision to make.
- [26:23]
Toby Howell
Counterpoint. Giant eagles are always going to be awesome. They're never going to go out of style. Although they did fall from the ceiling during an earthquake. And again, these things weigh a ton each. So I could see maybe the safety concerns being a bigger.
- [26:36]
Neal Freyman
That's not why I know. This afternoon In Vatican City, 133 cardinals will say a mid morning prayer and then enter the Sistine Chapel, where they will be sequestered and given no contact with the outside world until they choose a new pope to succeed the late Pope Francis. That's right. The Conclave starts now. This ancient, ultra secretive process to select a new leader for the world's 1.4 billion Catholics will be undertaken by the most geographically diverse group of cardinals ever, hailing from 71 different countries, including two dozen from countries that have never even produced one cardinal, such as Myanmar and East Timor. So all bets are off. The cardinals will remain in the Sistine Chapel until one cardinal secures two thirds of the votes from his peers. It could be tomorrow, it could be next week. We just don't know.
- [27:23]
Toby Howell
One very interesting detail that Politico Europe reported is that cardinals have been watching Conclave the Movie for guidance on how to actually carry out a conclave in real life. That's because the vast majority of the cardinals were actually appointed by Pope Francis. So they haven't been really around long enough to know how this whole process works. So that is just fascinating that just like us, they too were sitting down and watching Conclave. As for the contenders, how can you not root for Pierre Batista Pizza Balla? The Internet has a rally behind him simply because they want to say his name. I mean, come on, Pope Hope Pizza Ballet is funny.
- [28:01]
Neal Freyman
He'll change it.
- [28:03]
Toby Howell
I know. But no, his last name will still be Pizza Baller, though, so he'll change his first name. But Pizza Ball, it will still be there. But if I just think if the universe bends towards, you know, having the most funny outcome, then of course, Pope Pizza Balla is a lock.
- [28:16]
Neal Freyman
And according to Kalshee, the prediction market, there's a 50% chance that they choose a pope before May 9, which is Friday, and a 97% chance they choose one before May 16, which is the Friday after that. So the people with the money on this are expecting a conclave that lasts a few days into a week and a half. And we'll just have to wait for that white smoke. Okay, that is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Wednesday. Oh, we're halfway there. If you have any thoughts on the show, do not hesitate to reach out. Send an email with any questions, comments, or feedback to Morning Brew daily at Morning Bukom. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Scoop Sardaris is on audio, hair and makeup. Wants to go back to a world where they don't know the existence of the screw worm. Devin Emery is our president, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
- [29:12]
Toby Howell
Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.