
Elon Musk’s email causes confusion & Ozempic is back in the US
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Toby Howell
Good Morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Toby Howell.
Ann Barry
And I'm Ann Barry.
Toby Howell
Today federal employees are scrambling after an email over the weekend asked them to show their work.
Ann Barry
And the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett with Berkshire Hathaway's annual newsletter out letting us answer the question what would Warren do?
Toby Howell
It's Monday, February 24th. Let's ride. Happy Monday everyone and welcome to the show. Neil is still enjoying his much deserved break so and will be helping steer the ship for the upcoming week. And since we're going to be hanging out for the next few days, do you mind giving our listeners a quick bio? Who is Ann Barry and how did you end up in this chair across from me?
Ann Barry
Well, I'm breaking down the market news morning Brew at a franchise called Brew Markets. You'll find us on Instagram, on X, on YouTube right now and also we have a fabulous daily newsletter coming out at the end of day. Also hosting after earnings which is our conversations with CEOs and CFOs at your favorite public companies are keeping really busy.
Toby Howell
And hosts a lot of shows. She's very talented. I highly recommend checking out both of the franchises that you're a part of but thank you so much. You're a natural fill in from Neil. You look great over there. So I'm excited for our week ahead. Now a word from our sponsor LinkedIn Ads and have you ever been traveling abroad and seen a distinctly American restaurant?
Ann Barry
Of course. I was actually just in London back in my hometown and I did see a KFC which is delicious place but a long way from Kentucky.
Toby Howell
Toby, there's always this dissonance when you see things pop up in places that they shouldn't be. Same goes for ads.
Ann Barry
If you're not careful, your B2B ads can wind up in front of some truly bizarre people. And that means mistakes like accidentally serving ads for quote cloud servers to servers at Nando's.
Toby Howell
Which is what makes LinkedIn ads so helpful. Lets you target and filter your audience by industry, company and role so you can cut down on ad waste and avoid a KFC in London sort of scenario.
Ann Barry
No more spraying and praying and no more Americanized three piece tender combos near Piccadilly. If you're interested in testing out LinkedIn ads, LinkedIn will give you $100 credit on your next campaign. Just go to LinkedIn.commbd that's LinkedIn.combd Terms and conditions apply only on LinkedIn ads.
Toby Howell
If you thought you had a case of the Sunday scaries this weekend, federal workers almost certainly had it worse. 2.3 million government employees checking their email today will be staring down a message from the US Office of Personnel Management asking them to share five bullet points detailing what they accomplished in the last week. The effort was spearheaded by Elon Musk and came with a warning on X that any employee who fails to respond would be treated as having resigned, only adding to the uncertainty. For Elon and Doge, the email is meant to spot quote outright fraud from people on the government payroll who aren't actually working. But multiple agencies and unions have pushed back, instructing their workers to hold off on hitting that reply. But in new FBI Director Cash Patel told employees not to answer, saying the bureau would use its own procedures to review employee performance. NOAA and NSA employees were told the same. The State Department is also on the no reply train. The email told employees to respond by 11:59pm Eastern Time tonight. So as that deadline draws near, it set up a high stakes standoff pitting Musk and Trump's attempts to aggressively downsize the federal government against agency heads who aren't sure how to proceed. And a lot of weight contained in one tiny email.
Ann Barry
So much going on. This is straight out of the Elon playbook. He did this over at X. It was then called Twitter. He dropshipped in said this is now happening. He's done this at Tesla, he's done that at the rest of his companies. I don't think he knows any different. And it's really difficult because it's, it's been a successful strategy elsewhere.
Toby Howell
The issue people have had is that the federal government is not necessarily a tech company. You can't treat it in the same way. And also just logistically, some federal workers are on leave right now, whether it's, you know, sick leave, parental leave, so they can't access their emails. I mean, some of them work in far flung places that don't even have email access. So do they get automatically fired just because they can't actually load their email? Others like the cfpb, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, their workforce has recently been placed on leave and have been instructed not to work. So do they have any accomplishments to report? No. So there's just been all these edge cases where everyone's a little confused as to how you're supposed to approach this. If one, you can't look at your email, or two, you're already on leave right now. So definitely some logistical issues, not to mention maybe some of the legal issues along with this email as well.
Ann Barry
The big body of folks I'm waiting to hear from, Toby, I'd love to know what you think about. This is actually the unions, right? If you think about this, this is a complete, completely different shift in anything that the federal government has ever seen before. And the unions, who are, in theory, supposed to be representing, you know, this body of workers, it'll be very interesting to see what they have to say, not just in terms of legal advice, not just terms of the interpretation of what's going on, not in terms of what the. Not just in terms of what the agencies are saying, but what the unions actually advise people to do. I think is going to be really critical here.
Toby Howell
According to most federal employment lawyers, Elon Musk can't force federal employees to resign. Attempting to do so would amount to, you know, an involuntary termination. So workers who are affected by an involuntary termination could file a claim, a legal claim, challenging that action. So that looks to be a pathway that they could obviously take. But then also, let's just take the viewpoint of what, you know, Elon and Doge and Trump are trying to accomplish with this, is that from their viewpoint, this is a very easy test you should be able to pass. If you are actually working, you should be able to in five minutes, you know, write down five bullet points of what you've been working on. He said on exit, there was a low bar to meet it. It should take less than five minutes to write. And that was the same energy that he's brought to a lot of his companies that he brought to, to Twitter. So, yes, you can see his supporters saying, yeah, this should be something that every private sector employee has probably faced in their tenure. Why shouldn't public sector employees be faced and held to the same standards?
Ann Barry
It's interesting. Did you see that tweet go out? I guess it's X go out last week, which was looking at Social Security payments, and Doge released a list of the dollar amounts of payments made according to recipients and their ages. And some of the ages of those recipients were like 200 years old or something. And their point was that we're just trying to go after ways in which to identify fraud really, really quickly. It feels as though this kind of goes in the bucket of we're trying to figure out if no one responds from an email address, does that mean that worker doesn't exist? But the way they're going about it, to your point, Toby just feels like he's not just going to break glass. Right. Run fast and break things. It feels like there's more at play.
Toby Howell
Here at the moment that that is the one thing that we'll kind of end this story with is that the unanswered question here is if you get, you know, 2 million responses to an email, what do you do with that? That is millions of emails flowing in with millions of, you know, bullet points. So just again, I go back to the logistics. It might be tough to actually deal with this flood of emails that do come in after, you know, cc the entire federal government on one single email.
Ann Barry
I want to see if they will get together. And no one replies. Right. What happens if everyone just cabals?
Toby Howell
It's like a prisoner's dilemma.
Ann Barry
Exactly. No one responds. Let's talk about about Berkshire Hathaway. So for our next story, Warren Buffett shared his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaw investors on Saturday and shared that the holding company's earnings saw an incredible 71% surge in Q4 and that their cash stockpile grew to a record breaking $334 billion. The reason? Well, it was the insurance part of their portfolio, mostly Geico, that saw a large rebound. Insurance underwriting had a 302% jump from the year earlier to $3.4 billion. Berkshire also did warn that the Southern California wildfires will lead to an estimated pre tax loss of about $1.3 billion. That's hitting 2025 numbers Berkshire Hathaway. Toby is known to hold on to large amounts of cash for flexibility and future investments. But that current number of 334 billion is raising some eyebrows. In his letter, Warren Buffett said, despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities. Buffett went on to say shareholders can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities. Buffett also touted Berkshire's record $26.8 billion tax payment and told the government to, quote, spend it wisely. The surge in earnings reflects the strength of Berkshire's core businesses rebounding. While the cash pulse certainly gives them that flexibility for a big move, Toby There was a lot in that. Oracle of Omaha's annual letter. I've got it printed out in front of me, actually, because there was so much to go through.
Toby Howell
Yeah, I mean, everybody loves reading, you know, the annual shareholder letter from Warren Buffett. It is a tradition in finance circles unlike any other. The cash pile is always something that, that grabs headlines because it just continues to grow bigger. Remember, his cash and treasury bills is sitting at 330 billion plus dollars right now. But I do like that he was like, chill out with all this cash pile talk. I know you guys love writing headlines about this, but again, the vast majority of our company is tied up in equities. He still, you know, very much believes in equities, as you know, the path to growing Berkshire Hathaway. And the fact remains that the stock market is trading at record, at near record highs. Valuations are elevated compared to historical averages. So it's very hard to find a deal for a value investor like Warren Buffett. So everyone tends to, you know, get in a tizzy about this cash pile. But Warren's like, hey, just chill out. We're looking for deals. You know how we operate here. We, we look for, for good deals. We're not just going to splash out this cash on something willy nilly write your headlines. But you know what, we're still fine with, you know, the cash position that we're sitting in right now.
Ann Barry
And he actually said, look, we've got less cash than we've got public equities. And don't forget the other thing about Berkshire Hathaway is they own 100% of businesses too. Those are basically privately held businesses. You can't go buy in the stock market. Some couple of things that really struck me here. Toby, did you see that line in the, in the shareholder letter saying 53% of our investments, our companies had earnings down. And actually I went back and looked at exactly how they broke it out, but for their insurance investments and frankly, the energy, they would have been down.
Toby Howell
It is, it is remarkable. It speaks to the fact that, you know, they have a piece of 189 businesses. So that diversification, I mean, it kind of is emblematic of the US Economy at this point. It's like a proxy for the US Economy that diversification allows them to have the majority of their business or the over half their businesses actually report negative earnings that fell and still on the year report a pretty solid year overall. We do need to talk about this tax bill too. In 2024, Berkshire paid $26.8 billion that's the most of any US company in history and actually amounts to 5% of the total American corporate income taxes paid in 2024. Berkshire Warren Buffett said the company now has paid in aggregate more than $101 billion of income tax directly to the U.S. treasury. And he's not mad about it. That was the, the kind of sentiment you got reflected in this letter is that he's like, spend it wisely, you know, spend it on maybe the less fortunate. But I'm not mad about paying this tax bill, which kind of goes against what a lot of other corporations would probably tell if they had a $26 billion tax bill. So he was kind of trying to position himself as saying, like, hey, not all of these mega one trillion dollar corporations hate taxes. We actually like paying them as long as, you know, Uncle Sam uses the money appropriately.
Ann Barry
The other warning he gave to Uncle Sam is we need a stable currency. He specifically called out, just make sure that there is a sort of steady Eddy temperament in government and we need a stable currency to be able to succeed. And I thought that was so interesting, Toby, in the context of one of the biggest takeaways for me from this letter, Warren Buffett went out of his way to say we are investing in Japan.
Toby Howell
Yes, that he loves Japanese trading houses. He, he thinks they're undervalued compared to kind of Western counterparts. He loves them because they kind of check all the boxes that Berkshire Hathaway wants to check. Their cash generating businesses, they have this very strong global presence. They have steady dividends, they're very conservatively managed. And so that is just something that Berkshire loves. That's music to their ears. And they have been down a little bit in recent months. These Japanese trading houses which just backing up a send a minute. These are these massive conglomerates that handle everything from global trade, resource procurement, logistics, investments across multiple industries. They're very diversified. And he says that these Japanese positions are ones that they'll hold for decades. So again, all of the positions that Berkshire usually takes are, you know, held over a long time frame. So these Japanese trading house positions are no different. After two years of insane demand for the active ingredient in injectable weight loss drugs, Semaglutide, the FDA has declared the shortage over. Ozempic, Wegovy and other drugs in the blockbuster category have been in short supply around the world as their popularity has skyrocketed. When certain medicines face shortages, the FDA can make it possible for other companies to make their own off brand copycat versions of brand name drugs. That proved to be a boon for digital health companies like Hims and Hertz who have been prescribing compounded semaglutide. In the midst of the shortage, patients flocked to the non FDA approved medications because of the cost difference. Hims and hers sells their medicine for a few hundred dollars compared to brand drugs from Novo Nordisk which clock in at around $1,000 per month without insurance. But now that gravy train looks to be ending. The FDA said compounding drug makers have 60 to 90 days to close up shop, which sent Hims and her stock plunging 26% just before the weekend. A big shake up in the GLP1 drug industry here and huge shake up.
Ann Barry
And I got to tell everyone I speak to at the moment, Toby seems to be using a GLP1 from every age group, from every demographic. And I just, I think I've almost not really realized the ubiquity of this. So the fact that the affordable version, the accessible version is likely is actually going to go away. I think it's got enormous repercussions, not just for the people using it, but also let's take, take a little bit of a look at what's been going on with other businesses impacted like the snack industry. Everyone was talking about how the snack industry is going to be changed by GLP1. Don't know how that's going to change.
Toby Howell
Yeah, no, it has been an absolute phenomenon. We've talked about it a lot on this show over the year. But I also just want to dig into this practice of compounding drugs. So typically compounding drugs is a very normalized and very commonplace practice to, you know, make these custom versions of brand name drugs. Usually they're personalized for patients, which means if someone is allergic to a specific ingredient in a drug, a pharmacist can tweak the formula a little bit without getting hit with IP claims from the drug maker. But compounding is also allowed when you are facing shortages like has been happening with semaglutide, that key ingredient. And so these, you know, digital pharmacies like Hims and hers jump in and say like, hey guys, like we can make the same drug for a much cheaper price, which has sent their share price skyrocketing. Ironically, on our Friday show we named Hims and Hers our stock of the week because of its, you know, great performance over the last week. Literally after this episode published, this news came out and him and her stock absolutely tanked. So sorry for, you know, the morning brew daily curse right there. But I do think it just shows how important it is to have access to this fast growing market. Like you said, that has just taken over. You know, so many of your friends and so many people you know are on this class of drugs right now.
Ann Barry
I think it's a bit of a cautionary tale too. By the way, Hims and hers are out. I think their earnings are out today. So we're really going to find out what their plan B is and sort of on that point. The big learning for me is there are actually a lot of companies and industry subsectors that have hitched their wagon to GLP1s. And the question I ask is have they taken the lesson from Berkshire Hathaway and diversified, what else they got going on? So I just think this one is really going to shake up this sector.
Toby Howell
Up next, it's our Winners of the Weekend.
Neil
Have you taken our Morning Market Trivia quiz yet?
Toby Howell
Top scorers will receive a custom prize, a 200Amex gift card, a newsletter feature and bragging rights for life.
Neil
If you want a sneak peek, here's one of the questions right from the quiz. Which of the following are not members of Magnificent Seven stocks? Is it A, Tesla and Coca Cola, B Meta and Alphabet, C, Microsoft and Nvidia or D Apple and Tesla?
Toby Howell
If you're itching to shout out the answer, just do the next best thing and go to morning brew.com/morning-market-trivia to test your stuff with a morning market trivia quiz. Like I said, top scorers will receive prizes and a feature in the Morning Brew newsletter. I scored 12 out of 15.
Neil
I got you by one. 13 out of 15.
Toby Howell
Head on over to Morning Broadcom/morning-market-trivia to see if you can beat us. Neal, you've had the chance to work with plenty of leaders in your career. What traits do you think are most important?
Neil
In my experience, a few things stand out like leading by example, taking risks and being passionate.
Toby Howell
And for all those influential leaders out there, there's the Range Rover Sport.
Neil
That's definitely a match made in heaven.
Toby Howell
Absolutely. Each model strikes an ideal balance between on road performance and world renowned off road capability, sophisticated refinement and visceral power.
Neil
Explore the Range Rover Sport at range rover.com/us/sport. That's range rover.com/us/south.
Ann Barry
Welcome to Winners of the Weekend, the segment where Toby and I share two stories highlighting people or companies that had almost as good of a weekend as Neil, hopefully while on vacation. But before we do that, there's a winner of the day, and that is Toby. Hey, Toby, it's your birthday. Happy, happy birthday.
Toby Howell
I knew something like this was coming. The control room puts you up to this, but thank you. And, you know, 28 years young, it feels like right now, but thank you for the birthday wishes.
Ann Barry
What are you going to do to celebrate?
Toby Howell
Oh, you know, probably play a little golf, go out to dinner with my girlfriend. The usual, Keep it low key.
Ann Barry
All right. We're going to bring a cake for you every week because it's going to be the week of Toby's birthday. For our first winner, though, let's, let's talk now about the winner of Germany's election. That's Friedrich Merz, the center right conservative candidate. His alliance, one that was expected and they did clock in with about 29% of the vote. In second place was the far right alternative for Germany with about 20%. Now, this election is going to have a large impact potentially on Germany's economy, which has been struggling for the last few years. Soaring energy prices have impacted manufacturing since Russia invaded the Ukraine back in 2022. And that coupled with the rising cost of living, increasing migration and green energy regulations have caused public and businesses to pause, leading to the call for reforms in the policies that Friedrich Mertz and his party have run on. Now, one of the first items the new government will address is the country's debt break, which is a rule enacted in 2009 that actually limits government borrowing by controlling the budget deficit to cap it at 0.35 of the country's gross GDP, massively below other places like the US for example. Now, the winner, Friedrich Mertz, prefers to retain the debt break and wants to instead reduce social benefits and downsize government employment, also supporting tax cuts and social spending. So, Toby, Germany's economy is certainly in a precarious situation right now. As reading over the weekend, it's technically been in recession for the last two years. So we're going to have to see how these new policies will impact their standing as a country and on the global stage. But when you saw this news hit, what was your first reaction?
Toby Howell
I mean, the big winners here were the political fringes in Germany. I mean, the far right AfD party doubled its vote share from the last election in 2021, received about 20% of the vote. But also, you know, Merge is the big winner as well. Let's talk about who he is. He's actually a corporate lawyer that is a multimillionaire far richer than most of the other, you know, chancellors that Germans are used to. He's held pretty big positions at numerous corporate, on numerous corporate boards. Most notably he is actually chairman of their, or has been the chairman of the German arm of BlackRock, you know, the big U.S. investment firm. So he was seen as the more economically literate candidate, which is what Germany wants right now. They have been teetering on the edge of a third recession in as many years. Germans are extremely pessimistic about the economy right now. In a recent survey, only a quarter of people judge the economic situation to be good. So the vibes are incredibly dour and bad in Germany right now. And Merz has said the business model of this country is gone. You know, the manufacturing powerhouse that it used to be is being threatened by China, being threatened by these low cost, you know, automakers too. So there is a lot on his plate and he wants to attack it by, you know, reduction of taxes, the reduction of bureaucracy and you know, cutting down on the welfare spending as well.
Ann Barry
It's, it's a very similar policy to what we're hearing in other places. And you know, when I was looking at these results come in, one thing that really struck me is I wonder if there is another winner here. And is that other winner Elon Musk? Do you remember this election? He was going all in on afd which, which came in at number two. Is this just another example of where the omnipresent Elon can really move mountains?
Toby Howell
Yeah, I mean he's, if you look through his Twitter feed, he is or X feed. He has absolutely been pushing the AfD party as well. So absolutely you could consider this a winner. Although Mercer's government has said that they don't see themselves working with the AfD going forward. They are going to try to build a coalition without the AfD party there. So still some questions to hammer out. They're still trying to, you know, form a government here that can attack some of these big economic issues that Germany has been facing. My winner of the weekend is facial hair. Not because I suddenly gained the ability to actually grow a beard in my 28th year, but because the New York Yankees are finally reversing a nearly 50 year old policy allowing and allowing its players to grow some facial furniture. Now, the Yankees have long had the most famous grooming reel in professional sports. The team requires players to be clean shaven and only allows mustaches. No beards, no long hair past the collar. The tradition dates back to 1973 when its owner, George Steinbetter implemented the rule as part of his vision for a disciplined corporate style, team identity. But George's son Hal, who now runs the team, made the shocking announcement to end the tradition, calling it outdated and one that has serious consequences for the organization. What are some of those serious consequences, beyond nicking your Adam's apple while shaving? The dogmatic rule could potentially hurt the club's chances of retaining or signing players. Some players really like their beards and. And things like that can factor into the calculus that goes along with deciding where to play.
Ann Barry
I feel like this is a reaction to the NFL where everyone seems to have a beard right now. It's just.
Toby Howell
Right now. Yeah, like, beards are trendy right now. I mean, actually, George Steinbrenner said, or Hal Steinbrenner said, Look at J.D. vance right now. Like, he's the vice president, United States. He has a beard. So you are absolutely right. Like, beards are the. In fashion right now.
Ann Barry
I know. And Taylor Swift, right? Taylor Swift's boyfriend is all about the.
Toby Howell
I mean, I thought you could say Taylor Swift has a beard.
Ann Barry
I was like, I wasn't going to.
Toby Howell
Say that is news to me. This announcement, you could read two ways. Like, one, probably it was an outdated rule that did deserve to, you know, be updated because it is a little draconian and, like, you shouldn't be able to control what people are, you know, growing on their faces. But the other side of the rule is that it did have, you know, real impact on the team's fortunes and the team's ability to sign free agents. Because you know what the saying is like, look good, feel good, play good. If some players think that they look their best with the beard, that means they're feeling the best. And that means if you're feeling good and you're playing better, that could lead to, you know, more success and millions of dollars of revenue. So depending on how serious you want to take the rule, like, potentially, this does shift the calculus and get them over. Potentially get the Yankees over the hump. Or you can just say it was a dumb rule to begin with. Why are we even talking about it in the first place?
Ann Barry
It's all about the mojo. Whatever gets people.
Toby Howell
Exactly.
Ann Barry
On and off the field.
Toby Howell
It's all about the mojo. Now let's see what the week ahead has to offer, other than hopefully some warmer weather here in New York after a weekend where investors took a step back lick their wounds following the market's worst day of 2025. On Friday, we have In Video's Q4 earnings on deck. This Wednesday, the world's second most valuable company lost $600 billion in value after Deep Seek's inexpensive AI model debuted last month. But CEO Jensen Huang sounds unfazed by it. The chip maker is expected to show a 72% rise in revenue year over year and offer guidance for the supply and demand of its chips that could swing the market in either direction.
Ann Barry
This is going to be a big one. Have you got your Nvidia watch party attendance lined up?
Toby Howell
That's what I was thinking. I feel like we missed peak Nvidia earnings. It was like a few months ago the watch parties are in, but now, you know, we're not seeing like triple digit growth anymore. Still, I do think that whatever guidance it gives about how it sees, you know, demand for ships going forward, that does influence the market. We saw when Deep Seek went out, it led to a huge market wipeout. So I think that we still, it still has the power to, you know, shake the market, even if we're not, you know, lining up at bars to do a watch party these days.
Ann Barry
Well before Deep Seat, remember, everyone was talking about Nvidia sort of going all in on quantum computing. I'm really curious to see this go around. Do they double down on that narrative and say, look, don't worry about what's going on with the regular chips, let's see what's going on Quantum, because everyone bought that. So we'll see how that changes.
Toby Howell
The Fed's favored measure of inflation, the PC price index, is out on Friday. Consumers are currently walking on eggshells when it comes to inflation. Americans expectations for inflation over the next five years is the highest it's been since 1995 due to the looming threat of tariffs against key trade partners. That lack of confidence coupled with a hot inflation report may present a dangerous concoction for investors and consumers alike.
Ann Barry
I thought the treading on eggshells thing was a reference to avian flu in the egg shortage. Was that intentional?
Toby Howell
That was intentional. Everything we do here is in.
Ann Barry
I caught it. Are you impressed?
Toby Howell
Like I'm impressed and I hope the listeners caught it. Well, finally, what feels like the longest and most problematic Academy Awards season will come to a conclusion on Sunday night. ABC is giving everyone an early start time of 7pm Eastern for a second year in a row. So no one has to lose sleep over conclave. Absolutely sweeping the field. Conan O'Brien is charged with manning the ship for three hours in his role as a first time host for Hollywood's biggest night. And any early Oscars predictions?
Ann Barry
Oh, you know, I think it's an open field. I don't But I think Conan's gonna do great. Jimmy Kimmel's not hosting this year, which I was sad to see. He's done a good job.
Toby Howell
Usually in the past, he's done a good job. I'm excited for Conan as well. We were talking about Conclave beforehand that I think was both of our favorite Best fix. That's the only one I saw, so I think that is by default my favorite. But did you see any of the other ones or just.
Ann Barry
I didn't see any of the other nominees, but it's one of these things where I'm really curious to see how the streamers do right. That they have absolutely swept the board. The other one I'm watching is a 24, which seems to have won, like every award for every movie it's done over the last couple of the year. So sort of looking at those two.
Toby Howell
There you have it. That is all the time we have for today. And thanks again for jumping on and excited for a great week of shows ahead. Let's roll these credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Ushana Noogu is our technical director. Scoops Dard is on audio, hair and makeup. Forgot the password to their work email, so it's been so long since they've logged in. Devin Emery is our chief content officer, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
Ann Barry
Great show today, Toby, and we'll see each other tomorrow.
Morning Brew Daily Summary
Episode: Federal Staffers Must Justify Jobs or Be Fired? & Ozempic Shortage is Over
Release Date: February 24, 2025
Hosts: Toby Howell and Ann Barry
Overview:
The episode opens with a significant development affecting 2.3 million federal employees. Over the weekend, an email from the US Office of Personnel Management (OPM), spearheaded by Elon Musk, demanded that federal workers submit five bullet points detailing their weekly accomplishments. Failure to comply would result in termination, a move intended to root out fraud but sparking widespread confusion and resistance.
Key Points:
Elon Musk's Initiative: The directive from Musk aims to streamline federal operations by ensuring every employee actively contributes. However, this approach, reminiscent of his strategies at companies like Twitter and Tesla, clashes with the traditional structure of federal employment.
Ann Barry comments at [04:05]:
“This is straight out of the Elon playbook... he dropshipped in said this is now happening.”
Challenges Faced by Federal Workers: Many employees are on leave or lack reliable email access, raising questions about the feasibility and fairness of the mandate. For instance, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) workforce has been recently placed on leave, leaving them without active responsibilities to report.
Toby Howell explains at [04:22]:
“Federal workers are not necessarily a tech company... some have logistical issues... legal issues as well.”
Union and Agency Pushback: Multiple agencies and unions have advised employees not to respond to the email. FBI Director Cash Patel explicitly instructed FBI employees to disregard the request, highlighting a potential legal and procedural conflict.
Ann Barry posits at [05:11]:
“It's a complete, completely different shift... the unions... what the unions actually advise people to do... is going to be really critical.”
Potential Legal Implications: Federal employment lawyers assert that forcing employees to justify their jobs in this manner could be deemed involuntary termination, exposing the administration to legal challenges.
Toby Howell states at [05:42]:
“Elon Musk can't force federal employees to resign. Attempting to do so would amount to... involuntary termination.”
Conclusion:
The situation presents a high-stakes standoff between Musk and traditional federal leadership, with significant uncertainty looming over the future of federal employment practices.
Overview:
Warren Buffett, known as the Oracle of Omaha, released Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder letter, revealing impressive financial metrics and strategic insights into the company's future directions.
Key Points:
Earnings Surge and Cash Reserves: Berkshire Hathaway reported a 71% surge in Q4 earnings, primarily driven by the insurance sector, especially Geico. The company's cash reserves reached a record $334 billion, raising eyebrows among analysts.
Ann Barry highlights at [07:29]:
“Berkshire's cash pile is always something that... grabs headlines because it just continues to grow bigger.”
Investment Strategy: Despite the large cash holdings, Buffett emphasizes that the majority of Berkshire's assets remain invested in equities. He reassures shareholders that the cash reserves are meant for flexibility and future investments, not idle.
Toby Howell elaborates at [09:19]:
“The vast majority of our company is tied up in equities... we are looking for deals... not going to splash out this cash on something willy nilly.”
Tax Contributions: Berkshire Hathaway paid a record $26.8 billion in taxes, the highest ever by a US company. Buffett expressed a positive stance on tax contributions, urging the government to "spend it wisely."
Toby Howell notes at [10:25]:
“In his letter, Warren Buffett said... spend it wisely... not all of these mega one trillion dollar corporations hate taxes.”
Global Investments: Buffett announced investments in Japanese trading houses, recognizing their undervaluation and strong global presence. These conglomerates offer steady dividends and conservative management, aligning with Berkshire's long-term investment philosophy.
Ann Barry remarks at [12:12]:
“Warren Buffett went out of his way to say we are investing in Japan.”
Conclusion:
Berkshire Hathaway remains a powerhouse with robust earnings and strategic investments, maintaining a balanced approach between holding cash reserves and active equity investments.
Overview:
After two years of high demand, the FDA has declared the shortage of Semaglutide, the active ingredient in popular weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy, officially over. This decision has significant ramifications for the pharmaceutical and digital health industries.
Key Points:
FDA's Declaration: The FDA's announcement allows other companies to produce generic versions of Semaglutide, aiming to alleviate the global shortage.
Impact on Digital Health Companies: Companies like Hims and Hers, which thrived by offering compounded Semaglutide at lower prices, face challenges as the FDA mandates compounding drug makers to cease operations within 60 to 90 days.
Toby Howell explains at [14:29]:
“The FDA said compounding drug makers have 60 to 90 days to close up shop, which sent Hims and Hers stock plunging 26% just before the weekend.”
Consumer Implications: With the end of the shortage, patients may no longer have access to more affordable compounded versions, potentially increasing their medical expenses as they revert to pricier brand-name drugs.
Ann Barry observes at [14:29]:
“I think I've almost not really realized the ubiquity of this... the affordable version is likely is actually going to go away.”
Market Reactions: Hims and Hers, previously highlighted as Morning Brew's "Stock of the Week," saw their valuations take a significant hit, illustrating the volatile nature of the pharmaceutical sector amid regulatory changes.
Toby Howell reflects at [16:15]:
“It just shows how important it is to have access to this fast-growing market... but now... this one is really going to shake up this sector.”
Conclusion:
The resolution of the Semaglutide shortage marks a pivotal shift in the weight loss drug market, with broader implications for pricing, accessibility, and the competitive landscape among pharmaceutical and digital health companies.
A. German Election Outcomes
Overview:
Friedrich Merz, the center-right conservative candidate, emerged victorious in Germany's recent election, securing approximately 29% of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party closely followed with around 20%.
Key Points:
Economic Context: Germany's economy has been under strain due to soaring energy prices, manufacturing challenges post the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and rising living costs. Merz's victory is seen as a mandate for economic reforms.
Toby Howell discusses at [20:22]:
“Merz has said the business model of this country is gone... reduction of taxes, reduction of bureaucracy... cutting down on welfare spending.”
Policy Implications: The new government plans to address Germany's strict debt brake rule from 2009 by retaining it while reducing social benefits and downsizing government employment. Additionally, Merz advocates for tax cuts and increased social spending to stimulate the economy.
Union and Political Fringes Influence: The AfD's significant vote share indicates growing support for political fringes in Germany. Elon Musk's influence via social media has been suggested as a contributing factor to the AfD's performance, although the new government seeks to distance itself from the party in future coalitions.
Ann Barry speculates at [21:42]:
“Is this just another example of where the omnipresent Elon Musk can really move mountains?”
Conclusion:
Friedrich Merz's leadership ushers in a potential era of economic reform in Germany, addressing longstanding fiscal policies and navigating complex political dynamics influenced by external factors like social media.
B. Yankees' Grooming Policy Shift
Overview:
In a cultural shift, the New York Yankees have decided to lift their nearly 50-year-old policy banning beards, allowing players to grow facial hair beyond mustaches.
Key Points:
Historical Context: Since 1973, the Yankees enforced a strict grooming code requiring players to be clean-shaven, a policy rooted in maintaining a disciplined and corporate team image.
Policy Change Rationale: Hal Steinbrenner, team owner, cited the outdated nature of the grooming rules and their negative impact on player retention and recruitment.
Toby Howell notes at [23:40]:
“Beards are trendy right now... enable players to feel and perform better.”
Cultural and Market Influence: The move aligns with broader trends in sports and popular culture, where beards have become fashionable and symbolize personal freedom and individuality.
Ann Barry remarks at [23:35]:
“I feel like this is a reaction to the NFL where everyone seems to have a beard right now.”
Conclusion:
The Yankees' decision to relax grooming standards reflects evolving cultural norms and highlights the importance of player satisfaction and modern branding in professional sports.
A. Nvidia Earnings and Market Impact
Earnings Report: Nvidia is set to release its Q4 earnings, with expectations of a 72% year-over-year revenue increase. The company is also expected to provide guidance on chip supply and demand, which could significantly influence market trajectories.
Ann Barry anticipates at [25:34]:
“Have you got your Nvidia watch party attendance lined up?”
Market Volatility: Following the debut of DeepSeek's AI model, which caused Nvidia's valuation to drop by $600 billion, the upcoming earnings report is critical in assessing the company's resilience and future prospects.
B. Federal Reserve's PCE Price Index
Inflation Metrics: The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, is due for release. Current consumer sentiment shows heightened anxiety over inflation, the highest since 1995, influenced by potential tariffs and economic uncertainties.
Toby Howell humorously notes at [26:49]:
“I thought the treading on eggshells thing was a reference to avian flu in the egg shortage... everything we do here is in.”
C. Academy Awards Season Conclusion
Hosting Changes: Conan O’Brien will host this year's Academy Awards for the first time, taking over from Jimmy Kimmel. The event promises to conclude a challenging season with high expectations.
Ann Barry muses at [27:28]:
“Have Conan's gonna do great... Jimmy Kimmel's not hosting this year, which I was sad to see.”
Predictions: While anticipation builds around Conan's performance, attention is also on the success of films like "Conclave" and "24," which are expected to dominate the awards.
Ann Barry at [04:05]:
"This is straight out of the Elon playbook... he dropshipped in said this is now happening."
Toby Howell at [05:42]:
“Elon Musk can't force federal employees to resign. Attempting to do so would amount to... involuntary termination.”
Toby Howell at [09:19]:
“The vast majority of our company is tied up in equities... we are looking for deals... not going to splash out this cash on something willy nilly.”
Ann Barry at [14:29]:
“I think I've almost not really realized the ubiquity of this... the affordable version is likely is actually going to go away.”
Conclusion:
This episode of Morning Brew Daily delves into pressing issues ranging from federal employment reforms and Berkshire Hathaway's financial strategies to pivotal changes in the pharmaceutical industry and significant cultural shifts in sports. Additionally, it highlights key events shaping the upcoming week, providing listeners with a comprehensive overview of current affairs to start their day informed and engaged.