Fed’s Latest Rate Cut Reveals Uncertainty & Workers Turned Off By RTO Policies

Summary

Morning Brew Daily: Fed’s Latest Rate Cut Reveals Uncertainty & Workers Turned Off By RTO Policies
Release Date: December 19, 2024

Hosts:

• Neal Freyman
• Toby Howell

---

1. Successful Eradication of Murder Hornets in Washington State

The episode opens with Neal Freyman discussing the eradication of giant murder hornets in Washington State. After years of concerted efforts, state officials have successfully eliminated the non-native pests, ensuring the protection of honeybees and other pollinators crucial to the ecosystem.

Neal Freyman (01:25):
"These things can be 2 inches long. Just think about a hornet that's 2 inches long in your head right now. They can wipe out an entire honeybee hive in less than 90 minutes by decapitating the bees there and then defending the hive as their own... It's a rare day when the humans actually get to win one against the insects."

Toby Howell (02:05):
"If I saw a 2 inch murder hornet I would say something as well. So congrats to Washington State playing your vacay there."

The hosts highlight the significant role the public played in reporting sightings, contributing to the successful eradication effort.

2. Federal Reserve’s Latest Rate Cut Sparks Market Uncertainty

Moving to economic news, Toby Howell and Neal Freyman delve into the Federal Reserve's latest decision to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Despite the anticipated rate cut, major stock indexes declined sharply due to the Fed's cautious outlook for 2025.

Toby Howell (03:14):
"The Fed is now projecting only two cuts next year, as opposed to the four that were anticipated back in September. The Fed also revised their forecast for inflation to 2.5%, up from the 2.1% it originally projected."

Neal Freyman (04:17):
"Jerome Powell's announcement led to a violent market reaction. Investors are uncertain about the future projections, especially regarding why rates were cut despite concerns over sticky inflation."

The discussion highlights Jerome Powell's attempts to frame the rate cuts as a sign of confidence in the economy, juxtaposed with the market's negative response to the revised economic forecasts.

3. Government Spending Bill Faces Opposition from Elon Musk and Others

The conversation shifts to the recent congressional efforts to pass a three-month stopgap spending bill aimed at averting a government shutdown. Initially deemed uncontroversial, the bill soon attracted criticism due to various inclusions, leading to unexpected opposition from influential figures like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.

Toby Howell (07:32):
"Elon Musk posted on X about the funding bill more than 100 times over the course of the last two days... House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters that the current iteration of the bill is now dead."

Neal Freyman (08:57):
"Elon has thrown Congress a curveball and it's a sign of things to come. Less flexibility for employees means lower headcount, as new research suggests."

The hosts elaborate on the ramifications of the bill's failure, including the potential for a government shutdown and the broader implications of influential non-elected individuals influencing legislative processes.

4. Research Reveals Negative Effects of Return to Office (RTO) Policies

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to discussing the impact of Return to Office (RTO) policies on company growth and employee morale. Recent studies by Revelio Labs and the University of Pittsburgh indicate that companies enforcing RTO policies experience slower workforce growth and higher turnover rates.

Neal Freyman (10:00):
"Companies requiring return to office grow their workforces more slowly than companies that allow hybrid work. This could be intentional, as RTO mandates might be a covert way to reduce headcount without formal layoffs."

Toby Howell (13:28):
"Some companies are rethinking their RTO plans because they haven't gone as smoothly as expected. Amazon's recent five-day in-office requirement faced logistical challenges, underscoring the difficulties of enforcing strict RTO policies."

The hosts discuss Amazon's struggles with implementing its RTO mandate, highlighting issues such as unprepared office spaces and the resulting delays in enforcing the policy. Additionally, they explore the qualitative effects of RTO, including decreased employee morale and perceived distrust from management.

5. Neil’s Numbers: Fascinating Statistics

In the "Neil’s Numbers" segment, Neal Freyman shares intriguing statistics on various topics:

a. Lower Alzheimer’s Rates Among Taxi Drivers

A study published in the British Medical Journal reveals that taxi drivers have a significantly lower rate of Alzheimer's disease compared to other professions. This suggests that the mental exercise involved in navigating and creating spatial maps may contribute to better cognitive health.

Neal Freyman (18:09):
"Taxi drivers had an Alzheimer's death rate of just 1%, compared to the overall 3.9%. The act of navigating without predefined routes could be enhancing brain health."

However, critics point out limitations such as the younger average age of taxi drivers and potential self-selection bias.

b. Decline in Teen Substance Use

Annual surveys indicate that substance use among American teens is at a historic low, with approximately two-thirds of 12th graders abstaining from alcohol, marijuana, cigarettes, and e-cigarettes in the past 30 days.

Toby Howell (21:43):
"The decline started during the pandemic when teens were home and has continued post-lockdown. Breaking the peer pressure cycle has led to sustained lower usage rates."

c. College Football and Wedding Dates

Data analysis suggests that couples in college football hotspots prefer wedding dates that do not conflict with local game days. This is especially notable in areas like Auburn, Alabama, where weddings on non-game Saturdays are significantly more popular.

Neal Freyman (22:30):
"In Auburn, 5.3% of weddings took place on a non-game day compared to the national average of 3.1%."

Toby Howell (24:26):
"College football weekends cause logistical nightmares with traffic and accommodation shortages, influencing couples to choose alternative dates."

6. Final Headlines

The episode concludes with brief updates on various news items:

a. TikTok’s Supreme Court Battle

TikTok is set to face the Supreme Court regarding a law that could ban the app in the U.S. unless its owner, ByteDance, sells the platform. TikTok argues that the law infringes upon First Amendment rights.

Neal Freyman (25:14):
"The Supreme Court agreeing to hear this case indicates critical questions about the balance between national security and free speech."

b. Bird Flu Cases in the U.S.

The first severe bird flu case was reported in Louisiana, with ongoing concerns about outbreaks affecting poultry and dairy herds, particularly in California.

Toby Howell (26:32):
"California has declared a state of emergency due to bird flu affecting 645 dairy cattle herds, making it the epicenter of this epidemic."

c. OpenAI’s ChatGPT Hotline

OpenAI has introduced a new feature allowing users to call ChatGPT via phone for assistance, offering 15 minutes of free chat per month.

Neal Freyman (27:34):
"This isn't a novel idea, reminiscent of Google's 411 service from 2007, which was eventually shut down amid privacy concerns."

Toby Howell (28:09):
"Technological advancements often revisit ideas from the past, emphasizing the importance of market timing alongside innovation."

---

Conclusion:

Neal Freyman and Toby Howell provide a comprehensive overview of significant events affecting the economy, government policy, corporate strategies, and societal trends. From the successful eradication of invasive species to the complexities of monetary policy and legislative battles, the episode offers insightful analysis complemented by compelling statistics and expert commentary.

For those who missed the episode, this summary highlights the key discussions and conclusions, ensuring you stay informed on the latest developments shaping our world.

Transcript

[Google Gemini]

This episode is brought to you by Google Gemini. With the Gemini app, you can talk live and have a real time conversation with an AI assistant. It's great for all kinds of things like if you want to practice for an upcoming interview, ask for advice on things to do in a new city, or brainstorm creative ideas. And by the way, this script was actually read by Gemini. Download the Gemini app for iOS and Android today. Must be 18 to use Gemini Live.

[Neal Freyman]

Good morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.

[Toby Howell]

And I'm Toby Howell.

[Neal Freyman]

Today, Congress thought it a deal to avoid a government shutdown this Saturday. Then Elon Musk entered the chat.

[Toby Howell]

Then the Fed issued its final rate cut of the year. So why did your stock portfolio tank? It's Thursday, December 19th. Let's ride. Good news Neal. You can finally plan that trip to Washington State you've been putting off. That's because officials announced yesterday that the so called giant Murder Hornets have been successfully eradicated from the state following a years long effort to find and eliminate the non native pest. Murder Hornets were first sighted in the area all the way back in 2019, but state officials quickly mobilized to try and contain their presence due to the threat the giant insects posed to their honeybee and other pollinators. Consider that threat contained too. No hornet has been cited in the last three years, thank goodness.

[Neal Freyman]

Neil, Giant Murder Hornet is probably the most appropriate name ever given to an animal. These things can be 2 inches long. Just think about a hornet that's 2 inches long in your head right now. They can wipe out an entire honeybee hive in less than 90 minutes by decapitating the bees there and then defending the hive as their own, all while using the brood to feed their baby hornets. They can also sting through beekeeper suits, deliver almost seven times the amount of venom as a honeybee, and sting multiple times. That's why an entomologist in the Washington State Department of Agriculture said, I've been doing this for over 25 years now. It is a rare day when the humans actually get to win one against the insects.

[Toby Howell]

I'm not going to lie. I remember the peak of murder Hornet panic back in 2019. 2020. We are all in lockdown and we're like now the murder hornets are coming for us as well. So thank goodness they said the public played a huge role as well, taking pictures and reporting sightings because of course the public played a role. If I saw a 2 inch murder hornet I would say something as well. So congrats to Washington State playing your vacay there Now a word from our sponsor, the Range Rover Sport. Neil, pardon the pun so early in the morning, but one of the best things about the Range Rover Sport is its range. It's the kind of car you can roll up to a black tie gala and then take it to the mountains for a hike the next day.

[Neal Freyman]

It's the mullet of cars. Business in the front and party in the back. But also party in the front because this baby purse and the Venn diagram.

[Toby Howell]

Where one circle reads sophisticated luxury and the other reads pure power. Guess what's sitting right in the middle?

[Neal Freyman]

Dwayne the Rock Johnson.

[Toby Howell]

No. Although he is a classy and powerful guy, it's the Range Rover Sport. It truly brings a new dimension to sporting luxury.

[Neal Freyman]

Build your Range Rover Sport today at land rover USA.com that's land RoverUSA.com to.

[Toby Howell]

No one's surprise, the Fed announced its third and final rate cut of 2024 yesterday, reducing the Benchma rate by 25 basis points down to a range of 4.25 to 4.5%. So why did all three major indexes finish deep in the red? While the rate cut itself was all but guaranteed, it was the Fed's cautious outlook for 2025 that had investors a little spooked. The Fed is now projecting only two cuts next year, as opposed to the four that were anticipated back in September. The Fed also revised their forecast for inflation to 2 1/2 percent, up from the 2.1% it originally projected. In Jerome Powell's press conference after the announcement, he tried to frame fewer rate cuts as a vote of confidence in the economy. But he also said that the cuts announced at this meeting were a closer call than expected due to just how sticky inflation has been. So, Neal, as We close out 2024 with a pretty strong economy, slowly fading inflation in a stable job market, the question becomes what comes next?

[Neal Freyman]

And Powell said two rate cuts next year that was not welcomed by investors. The dow had its 10th straight day in the red. The S and P had its worst day since August. Yields jumped, which shows that borrowing costs are rising. The mortgage rate jumped above 7% for the first time. This was a very violent reaction. I think investors who had believed Powell knew know what he was doing for the past couple of years saw a little uncertainty in what Powell was projecting for the future. And I think an even bigger question was why do we have the rate cut now? A lot of the press conference Powell spent talking about how inflation was sticky and he's worried about inflation. Well, the last thing you want to do when you're worried about inflation is cut rates, which is what he did. So I think those two factors, lower, less, fewer rate cuts next year, and then failure to explain why they cut rates this time led to an extremely violent market reaction.

[Toby Howell]

Right. A lot of the reporters there asked some variations of that same question is if inflation is proving to be stickier and you're projecting it to be stickier, then why did you even cut rates on this meeting whatsoever? And it wasn't guaranteed, even though, remember, the market was pricing a 99% chance or a 90 plus percent chance that the Fed would cut rates. This meeting, there was actually a dissenting vote of the, you know, Fed officials that do vote on these rate cuts. So it wasn't. It was a lively discussion, I think, at that table of like, should we cut rates this time around? Powell's response was, in effect, that future rate cuts aren't guaranteed. So, like, let's do it while the economy is still strong and inflation isn't too high. So rather like to a bird in the hand is worth two in the Bush type approach. But you're right, the market definitely did not like that, especially because, you know, the projections got so much darker. Essentially, we were looking at four rate cuts. Now it's down to two, and that could shift even lower if this inflation proves to be as sticky as, you know, Powell is saying it is.

[Neal Freyman]

Yeah. I think the general interpretation of what Powell was saying was that this was a pause, not a skip. So the next Fed meeting is in January. If Powell signaled that they would just skip a rate cut then and then continuing the rate cuts going forward, I don't think the market would have reacted like it did. But this was a signal that they're kind of pausing this for now. And one thing I also want to talk about is that, you know, Powell was asked about Trump's policies and how that would, in fact, impact inflation and rate cuts. And, you know, economists do widely view Trump's policies of tax cuts, mass deportations, tariffs as being inflationary. So, you know, Powell is going to get pelted with questions about how that would shape the inflation and rate cut outlook. He demurred. He said that, you know, it's too early to tell. It's very premature to try to make any kind of conclusion. You know, Powell and Trump were both in the same positions in 2018 and 2019 when Trump enacted a bunch of tariffs on China. Powell said, we can't really learn that many lessons from those tariffs about what might happen in 2025. If there are more tariffs. So we are entering a state of uncertainty that we haven't seen in a few years. Powell compared it to, to driving on a foggy night or walking in a dark room full of furniture. You just slow down. So the word I think is caution.

[Toby Howell]

Let's get on the pod because that's actually a very nice analogy. Congressional leaders released the text of a three month spending bill on Tuesday that was supposed to prevent a government shutdown. But the stopgap spending bill has a lot of people big mad. Inside the over 1500 page bill were a few head scratching inclusions. There's $100 billion earmarked for disaster relief in the wake of a devastating hurricane season, economic aid for farmers, and a commitment to fully fund a rebuild of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge. But there's also a cost of living pay increase for members of Congress, reforms for pharmacy benefit managers, and a measure that clears the way for the Washington Commanders football stadium to be moved from Landover, Maryland back to D.C. two of the most vocal opponents of the bill were none other than Elon Musk and his Doge co head Vivek Ramaswamy. The two wasted no time in flexing their budding political power railing against this stopgap bill. Elon alone posted on X about the funding bill more than 100 times over the course of the last two days and it worked. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters that the current iteration of the bill is now dead, while Trump himself voiced his opposition to it as well. Now this was supposed to be a pretty uncontroversial bill so Congress could regroup and figure out what their priorities were in the new year. But it's proven to be just the opposite.

[Neal Freyman]

This is what they call an end of year Christmas tree bill, which is where all of the lawmakers see this bill that needs to get passed to avoid a government shutdown, which will happen if they don't pass this at 12:01am Eastern on Saturday and they just start decorating it with their own pet projects. You see something like the RFK Stadium getting, you know, moved to D.C. so that the commanders could get back to the District and these other small pet projects. And you know, it wasn't loved by a lot of right wing conservatives when it was released, but it seemed like it could potentially pass with helps from Democrats. Then all of a sudden I wake up yesterday morning, I see Elon Musk feed going absolutely off. She's showing himself to be an absolute force even though he, he's not an elected representative, he has no official position in government, but he is using his bully pulpit on X to move the needle. And then later in the day, President Elect Trump came out and said, this bill is a disaster and it looks like they will have to go back to the drawing board. Even though we are less than 36 hours away from a government shutdown.

[Toby Howell]

Right. It put Musk out a little bit on a limb in the early days because despite some of that opposition from Congressional Republicans, like no one had really come out because again, it is one of those end of year bills, it is just a tide over to keep the government running for the next three months. But Musk said absolutely no. He weighed in and said, like, this bill shall not pass. He loved that meme. He posted that multiple times. He literally posted over 100 times about this, really flexing his weight. Some people started to say though that this is a interesting strategy from Elon because right now he's spending some political capital. Getting in on a day to day skirmish like this is not in the grand scheme of things, the biggest thing that Congress is going to be facing over the next four years. But here he was tweeting 100 times about it even before Trump gets into office. So is he spending that political capital too early and too frequently? That was some of the kind of analysis of this. Even though technically his, you know, bullying Congress is working in this particular instance.

[Neal Freyman]

So what would a shutdown mean if it were to happen for people who are, I guess, five years old? You have lived through a government shutdown before. From December 2018 to January 2019, essentially all non essential federal employees stop working. So three, at that time, 350,000 were furloughed. But then you have the essential federal employees like TSA and air traffic controllers who still will work but without pay, and then they get back pay at that last, as that previous government shut down, 420,000 federal employees were working without pay. So we have this big busy holiday travel season coming up and you're probably going to encounter TSA agents and air traffic controllers who are not being paid. So that is a very interesting conundrum. So we have until tomorrow to get this, this bill passed and we'll see if they go back, streamline it and take a, take out all of the pork that had been criticized and pass a new one. But certainly Elon has thrown, thrown Congress a curveball and it's, it's certainly a sign of things to come. Less flexibility for employees means lower headcount. That's the conclusion of New research from Revelio Labs, which found that companies requiring return to office grow their workforces more slowly than companies that allow hybrid work. Since June 2022, companies with hybrid work policies have increased their headcount by 1.6% for businesses mandating that employees commute to the office. That growth rate is 1%. Now. This could be intentional. Remember, workers have long suspected that return to office mandates were a sneaky way for companies to lay off employees without laying off employees. And one executive seemed to confirm as much after Amazon announced a five day in office requirement starting in January. The CEO said if, if employees don't want to comply, that's okay. There are other companies around. But hiring fewer people means you're also hiring fewer all star people. A separate study from the University of Pittsburgh noted brain drain as a significant cost of RTO mandates. The research found companies requiring in office work took significantly longer to fill job openings and suffered abnormally high turnover, which is consistent with the other study showing slower growth. Toby, do you think corporate bosses are going to look at this and think, hmm, maybe we should be more flexible? Seems like the downsides of an in person requirement outweigh the advantages potentially.

[Toby Howell]

But like you said, a lot of these companies that did implement RTO policies were hoping that they would see some turnover. That was kind of the hidden thing that a lot of these companies were going for. They wanted to trim down their workforce without actually conducting layoffs. Where I do think you will see some of these companies taking pause though, is that if you're skilled employees and if your more senior employees are more likely to leave, that is something that you do not want. You mentioned a brain drain, but yeah, some of these high position or higher, you know, pay grade positions are more difficult to feel and you don't do not want that to, to experience a lot of turnover. So I do think you potentially will see some pause, which we've already started to see some companies kind of rethink some of their RTO plans because they haven't gone as smoothly as they expect.

[Neal Freyman]

Well, I think you're talking about Amazon. So Amazon, the announcement that they were going to go five days a week beginning in January kind of shocked the HR world. They are the biggest company that ever in the world that would require five days to work in office. And it, and it spurred a cascade of other companies like Dell and AT&T to announce return to office requirements. But reports in the past few days showed that Amazon has told certain employees it could be in the thousands in certain cities like Dallas and New York that their offices are not ready to get people back five days a week. They just don't have enough office space. They didn't prepare. So they told them that they would have to come back into the office, but not until April or May. So there have been a lot of logistical challenges. It's one thing to say, yeah, we want you back in the offices, another thing to, you know, get the office ready and have the Keurig pods all ready and make sure there's enough desk so people aren't huddled all over each other. So Amazon's return to office drama just took another swerve.

[Toby Howell]

The last swerve of this study that I want to speak about is not just the quantitative effect of RTO policy, but also the qualitative effect. A lot of employees cited why they hated rto. One of it was just the drama that follows it. The Amazon. So much drama followed this announcement and a lot of employees just want to work. They do not want to be constantly mired in this debate. So that was one thing. And then another thing they talked about is that when you institute rto, you're communicating a culture of distrust, saying that you're tracking our badge sign ins like you are making sure we're coming in. Dell was doing VPN tracking to see if people were trying to pretend they're working from one location when they weren't. So it's not just the quantitative factors and effects, it is also just the qualitative employee morale effects that you know you have to take into account. Speaking of taking into account, there's one more left in the year. It's the last Neil's numbers coming your way.

[Neal Freyman]

Ready to book your next vacation? Leave the kids at home and hit the high seas with Virgin Voyages.

[Toby Howell]

Virgin Voyages is the adults only destination for anyone seeking a restorative, luxurious and award winning vacation at sea. All food, entertainment and activities are catered to adult tastes and their sailors love it.

[Neal Freyman]

And who doesn't love a little luxury? Over $1,000 in value is included in every sailing everything Virgin Voyages offers, from menus created by Michelin star chefs to expertly design cabins is award winning.

[Toby Howell]

There's never a dull moment from well being a month to kick off the new year to end of the year holiday voyages. There's a new adventure around every corner all year long. There are theme sailings, onboard music, entertainment, parties and more to make sure you're sailing in style.

[Neal Freyman]

Book now@virgin voyages.com or contact your travel advisor. CFOs kind of have it tough when it comes to getting legit visibility into company wide financial health, they're working with too small tech that can't really keep up with the big time.

[Toby Howell]

That's why so many CFOs are turning to the right AI powered finance software to unlock the next stage of their business. In fact, I saw somewhere that 78% of finance leaders emphasize AI's importance in gaining a competitive edge.

[Neal Freyman]

The go to player in this space is Sage. They help CFOs automate manual processes and give them a real time view of their numbers so the finance pros can spend more time on doing the big stuff that matters.

[Toby Howell]

Sage can slash bill processing time by two to three times. That's huge. Plus their AI powered tools empower CFOs by allowing them to review thousands of transactions in minutes and combine all their entities in seconds. Yep, CFOs can finally see best practices across their whole organization.

[Neal Freyman]

Sage is long trusted and well established. They've been in business for over 40 years and were ranked number one in customer satisfaction by G2 for mid market accounting software.

[Toby Howell]

Oh geez for sure. To level up your biz, head to www.sage.com/morning brew. That's www.sage.com/noon brew.

[Neal Freyman]

Welcome to Neil's Numbers, the segment where I share three stats from the week's news that will make you feel like you just finished a really good book. My first number will have you thinking twice about using your gps. A new study released in the British Medical Journal found that taxi drivers die at lower rates from Alzheimer's than people in other professions, which maybe suggests that using your brain to navigate the world could ward off the disease. After examining 9 million adult death certificates, researchers found that around 3.9% of everyone in the data set died of Alzheimer's. But for taxi drivers, the rate was just 1%. That is not to say that driving a taxi is healthy. In general, they had lower life expectancies compared to the average. But as far as Alzheimer's is concerned, it got the scientists thinking that creating spatial maps in your mind all day could mean a bigger hippocampus, which is the part of the brain responsible for learning memory and navigating.

[Toby Howell]

These implications are actually really big because what it's implying is that there are things you can do during your lifetime that could potentially reduce your risk for dying of Alzheimer's, which is something that of course, researchers want to dig into. Some other interesting things from this finding too is that people who had jobs that involved navigating to a predetermined route. Think bus drivers, airplane pilots, ship captains. They did not have a lower rate of Alzheimer's. So there is something about the fact that you do have to spatially reckon you do have to memorize these routes that did contribute to lower Alzheimer's rates. So that was just a fascinating thing, that it's not just using navigational abilities. It is the fact that you cannot be riding a predetermined route.

[Neal Freyman]

Now, some critics of the study, and there were many, noted some limitations. First of all, the age of death of taxi and ambulance drivers. Ambulance drivers were the number two lowest risk after taxi drivers was around 64 to 67 years of age. And Alzheimer's doesn't really set in until 65. So they noted that criticism. And then there's the potential that there's a self selection going on, the fact that, hey, people who have bigger hippo camp, I just naturally gravitate to being a taxi driver. So the cause causation correlation effect doesn't really work because maybe it's not the fact that I'm driving a taxi gives my brain a workout, it's that I really like navigating and going through cities. That's why I'm gravitating to be a taxi driver. So those are just two of the limitations pointed out. This is not a definitive study, but it certainly raises really interesting questions about how creating spatial maps in your mind can give your brain a good workout. For my next number. America's youth are more straight edge than they've been in decades. An annual national survey of teens showed that substance use is hitting new lows while abstaining from drugs is hitting new highs. For example, about 2/3 of 12th graders said they hadn't used alcohol, marijuana cigarettes or e cigarettes in the last 30 days, the largest share since measuring began in 2017. These findings have shocked public health officials in the best way. Drug and alcohol use among teens fell the most in history during the pandemic, when kids were at home with their parents instead of playing beer pong with their friends. But researchers fully expected the toking and drinking to pick back up when Covid was over. That hasn't happened. Instead of rebounding, drug use has continued to fall years after stay at home rules were lifted.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah, I think it's because a lot of teens who do end up experimenting with drugs or alcohol, they usually start in the ninth grade, your first year of high school, because you see a lot of your older peers doing it. But if you break that cycle in the incoming 9th graders never saw anyone, you know, drinking or smoking, never experimented with their friends. Then as you filter through upwards through the generations, every class after that class, the COVID class is not going to have that experience either. So it is almost a self fulfilling cycle where you start to see lower and lower usage rates. So I think that was interesting because a lot of people's experimentation doesn't happen in your own room under the supervision of your parents. It happens when you're surrounded by friends, when there's peer pressure involved. So these were it is a really fascinating, you know, downstream effect of those COVID lockdown periods.

[Neal Freyman]

For my final number A question for everyone planning your wedding, would you pick a date to avoid a conflict with a football game for lovebirds in college football hotspots? The answer seems to be yes. The Washington Post dove into data from the NOT to find that for the majority of areas with powerhouse college football programs, Saturdays where the local team isn't playing are more popular wedding dates than game day Saturdays. Here's some actual numbers in and around Auburn, Alabama, 3.8% of the year's weddings took place on each of the team's idol fall Saturdays since 2022. That's compared to home game Saturdays excluding Thanksgiving weekend, when an average of 2.1% of the year's weddings were held. Let's look at one specific date to October 22, 2022. Tover you remember this date. All right, so the Auburn Tigers had a bye week in that market. In the Auburn market, 5.3% of the year's weddings took place that day, compared to 3.1% nationally. The Washington Post interviewed wedding planners in the Southeast to see if this data was backed up by their own experiences and they said absolutely. People do try to plan their weddings for days when the team isn't playing, and this makes a lot of sense to me. There's nothing worse than having to split your attention between the fourth quarter on your phone and the beautiful couple exchanging their vows.

[Toby Howell]

I get that too because I've been at weddings where people are watching college football games and it is a little bit of knowing but but also just the logistics side of it I think is under talked about because college football weekends are a zoo in these towns. So like traffic's a nightmare, hotel rooms are hard to come by, they're very expensive as well. So I totally understand from that perspective. They also talked to some couples though that just gave up and said, hey, if there's going to be a game on, let's embrace it. Let's. One couple created a game lounge at the reception venue where people could go watch the game. If it is such a big part of your family that people would not be paying attention to your wedding, might as well set up a screen and have everyone watch it together. I can't.

[Neal Freyman]

I mean, we're sports fans, but that's pretty hard.

[Toby Howell]

That is pretty hardcore. I cannot relate to it because we don't have, I mean, I'm an Indiana fan now this year, but I never had that, you know, crazy love for college football. So, I mean, shout out to all the Southern couples out there. I know it's, it's bigger. It just means more down there.

[Neal Freyman]

Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Tik Tok will fight for its life at the Supreme Court, which said yesterday it will hear arguments on a law that would ban the app on January 10, nine days before it goes into effect. TikTok is arguing that the law, which compels its owner, ByteDance, to sell it or else face a ban in the US Violates the First Amendment. Congress passed the measure earlier this year citing national security concerns posed by this immensely popular Chinese owned app. But for TikTok, there is hope the Supreme Court agreed to hear this case.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah, just the fact that the Supreme Court is setting aside time for oral arguments shows that the justices do see at least some critical questions about the First Amendment here. I know we've talked a lot about this Tik Tok saga, but this is probably the time where we are going to finally get a decision one way or the other. So if you've been kind of tuning out, this is the time to, you know, tune back in.

[Neal Freyman]

I want your prediction. Ban or no ban, I think is the Supreme Court going to stay it or let it go?

[Toby Howell]

See, it's hard. I don't know what the Supreme Court will actually argue on the grounds of First Amendment, but I think overall, eventually the app will not be banned just because there's so many logistical issues to it. So I'm going to say no ban that Toby says.

[Neal Freyman]

Let it ride. The first severe bird flu case was reported in the U.S. the CDC said that a patient in Louisiana has been hospitalized with bird flu, which is the first confirmed severe case of the H5N1 illness in the US more than 60 mild human cases of bird flu have been reported this year following an outbreak that has killed 123 million poultry since 2022 and infected more than 860 dairy herds. As for the severe case, the person had been in contact with birds both sick and dead in backyard flocks the CDC said. Health officials stress the risk to the human population remains low, but many critics say the US Response has not been sufficient.

[Toby Howell]

It's not been sufficient, but also, there is not just this one case in Louisiana that people are worried about. Also in California, Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency over the outbreak of bird flu specifically related to the state's dairy cattle. They've discovered the virus in 645 herds of dairy cattle. That's more than any other in the state. They do are saying the same thing. Public remains low, but there's definitely some threats to these cattle herds. It originally started in Texas, but now California has become kind of the epicenter of this bird flu cattle epidemic. Yesterday, OpenAI unveiled a new feature that lets you call Chat CBT directly from the phone number 1-800-Chat GPT. It's part marketing stunt and part useful feature edition. If your hands are full in the kitchen and you really want a classic, delicious lasagna recipe but your mom isn't picking up, dial up Chat CBT and ask it for an answer. But don't chat for too long. Callers will get 15 minutes of free chats per month. Neal, is this a good idea?

[Neal Freyman]

It's not a new idea. That's what I'll say. Back in 2007, Google launched a phone hotline called Goog411, which offered free directory assistance by voice. They shut it down three years later without an official explanation, but there was speculation that they use the voice data from you calling Google to train voice recognition software. And Google VP Marissa Meyer was later the CEO of Yahoo, basically acknowledged this was the case. So even as far back as 2007 there was controversies around training data.

[Toby Howell]

I think it is so funny too that every technological advancement we've had this year is something that Google tried 10, 15 years ago. I mean think about Google Glass. They were early to that. Now we're seeing all this range about meta ray bans, obviously all the artificial intelligence stuff. They were very early too as well. So it truly does say like sometimes just timing the market is as important as actually the features that you are releasing.

[Neal Freyman]

Let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for spending your morning with us and have a wonderful Thursday. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. And if you're enjoying the show, please share it with a friend, family member, or a coworker who needs a 25 minute news blast in the morning. For a more specific sharing idea, here's.

[Toby Howell]

Toby I want you to share it with the college football fans in your life. This is going to be a very stressful weekend for a lot of you. I hope none of you are getting married either, but send them this pod. Send them a little bit. Neil and Toby. Hopefully we can calm their nerves.

[Neal Freyman]

Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Chenowa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Menino is on audio. Call 1-800-HAIR-HUPUP up for a free wardrobe consultation. Devin Emery is our chief content officer. And our show is a production of Morning Brew.

[Toby Howell]

Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.