Morning Brew Daily – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Gen X-ers Snubbed on Black Friday & US Poverty Line is $140K?
Hosts: Neal Freyman & Toby Howell
Date: December 1, 2025

Episode Overview

In this lively and witty episode, Neal and Toby dive into Americans' record-setting Black Friday spending, examine debates around the true poverty line in the U.S., and spotlight the growing influence of AI—from retail shopping to hurricane forecasting. They also touch on upcoming events and quirky holiday trends, all with their signature banter.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Black Friday Shopping Trends

(03:07–08:17)

• Record Spending Despite Economic Gloom:

  • Americans spent more than ever on Black Friday. Retail sales excluding cars rose 4.1% (Mastercard), and online shopping hit $11.8 billion, up 9.1% year-over-year (Adobe Analytics).
  • "Despite plunging consumer confidence, sticky inflation, and a weakening jobs environment, Americans are still feeling flush enough to spend big on the holidays." – Neal [03:54]

• Youth Movement in Black Friday Participation:

  • Gen Z and Millennials lead the charge, with 40% of Gen Z and 32% of Millennials saying they’d do most of their shopping on or around Black Friday (AT&T Business report).
  • Social media drives their participation—deals are found on TikTok and Instagram.
  • However, despite high participation, Gen Z plans to spend less, with reports citing a 23–34% projected drop. "It's almost a high participation but low spend environment." – Toby [05:46]

• Gen X Snubbed by Retailers:

  • Gen X plans to spend more but is largely ignored in influencer and brand marketing (just 5% of spend targets them, despite high social media usage).
  • Neal notes the missed opportunity: "They are a very lucrative cohort, and it seems like retailers, for whatever reason, are deciding not to court them." [07:00]

• Role of AI in Shopping:

  • AI-driven traffic to retail sites is up 805% year-over-year, but most people still use AI to check prices, not for gift inspiration.
  • "They're using [AI] more as a fact-checking tool rather than an inspiration tool. Which I guess makes sense... It kind of takes the fun out of gift-giving." – Toby [07:51]

2. Debating the True U.S. Poverty Line

(08:17–12:40)

• Viral Claim: Poverty Line Should Be Over $136,000

  • Portfolio manager Michael Green’s Substack post claims a family of four needs $136,000 a year to cover basic necessities—over 4x the official poverty line ($32,000).
  • He uses Caldwell, NJ as a cost benchmark and includes essentials: food, housing, healthcare, childcare. "A huge chunk of the middle class is caught in what he calls the valley of death." – Toby [08:51]

• Big Rebuttals:

  • Economists largely dismiss Green’s analysis as flawed:
    • He used average, not minimum, costs (ignoring cheaper alternatives).
    • Childcare’s significant inclusion is time-limited for family budgets.
    • He emphasizes comfort over survival—the prevailing definition of poverty is about minimum sufficiency to avoid deprivation.
  • "Bottom line: economists are saying that it was a faulty premise to begin with... But this certainly sparked a discussion around how we should define poverty, affordability, things like that in our economy." – Neal [12:40]

• Relevant Insight:

  • The current (1963) poverty measure is outdated, but simply raising it to reflect comfort is misleading.
  • The unaffordability of housing, healthcare, and childcare remains a top concern for many Americans.

3. Market Rally & Winners of the Weekend

(13:12–17:01)

• Stock Market Rebound:

  • Despite recent bearishness, Thanksgiving week saw a 3.7% S&P 500 rally—the best week in 6 months.
  • This comes as big tech (Nvidia, Oracle, Palantir) underperformed, suggesting a broadening market rally.
  • "The bottom line, according to Barclays strategist Emmanuel Kao: Don’t fight the Fed and don’t fight AI remains the market mantra. Toby, buy the MF dip—strategy that has never failed this year." – Neal [14:51]

• Crypto Volatility:

  • Bitcoin surged above $90,000 before quickly falling 6% to $86,000, showcasing the continued unpredictability in crypto.

4. AI Revolution in Hurricane Forecasting

(18:53–22:25)

• Google’s DeepMind Weather Model Outperforms:

  • Google’s AI-powered hurricane prediction model, released in July, was best-in-class during the 2025 season, accurately predicting paths and intensities of major storms.
  • Neal explains: "This isn't generative AI... This uses machine learning to look at historical weather patterns and tease out patterns in this massive data." [20:39]
  • The AI model beat out traditional supercomputer-based physics models, doubling their accuracy at 5-day forecasts.

• Why AI Works:

  • Relies on spotting historical patterns, not physics equations.
  • Toby notes: "The major difference... is that AI models know nothing about physics... Models actually ignore all of that and just look deep into these massive data sets to see what storms have done in the past." [21:24]

5. Upcoming Events & Pop Culture

(22:25–25:43)

• Cyber Monday & Giving Tuesday lead a 'holiday' week: Retailers and the travel industry push for extended shopping events.
• Court case update: The Luigi Mangione trial draws attention for its anti-health care system sentiment.
• College Football Playoff & World Cup draw: Sports fans, take note of key events this week.
• Morning Brew Daily’s Live Holiday Show (Dec 4 in Brooklyn): "Met Gala of Audio," as Neal calls it [25:15]. Not a traditional show—full of audience participation and fun.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Gen Z’s Black Friday Shopping:
  "It’s almost a high participation but low spend environment that we currently find ourselves in when it comes to young people." – Toby [05:46]

• On Gen X neglect by brands:
  "Only 5% of brand influencer spending is targeted to Gen X, even though 92% of Gen Xers use social media daily." – Neal [06:30]

• Summing up the viral poverty line debate:
  "Economists generally agree that this was a really bad poverty analysis." – Neal [09:58]

• On market optimism:
  "JP Morgan put [the 2026 S&P 500 target] at 7,500. For the S&P 500, it's right now at about 6,900 points. So that's a nearly 10% rally." – Neal [16:20]

• On Google’s hurricane AI model:
  "Google performed by far the best out of all of those 11 and they just released it in July... Absolutely just crushed the competition." – Neal [20:14]

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Start | |-------------------------------------------------|----------| | Black Friday Numbers & Retailer Focus | 03:07 | | Gen Z Shopping Habits & Gen X Snub | 04:35 | | AI's Role in Retail | 07:13 | | Poverty Line Debate | 08:17 | | Economist Pushback on Poverty Line | 09:53 | | Market Rally Winners | 13:12 | | Crypto Volatility | 17:01 | | Google’s AI Hurricane Model | 18:53 | | Upcoming Events & Pop Culture | 22:25 | | Morning Brew Holiday Live Show Plug | 25:15 |

Tone & Style

True to form, Neal and Toby keep things light, brisk, and humorous—balancing hard economic data and big debates with playful banter and cultural asides (e.g., Whamageddon, fantasy football, and theatrical Thursdays). Their knack for connecting business news to relatable, everyday experiences shines in this episode.

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