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What should you invest in and how often? Making investing decisions is easier with Fidelity. With their step by step experience, you can find investments based on your goals and comfort level. And if you'd like, you can decide how much and how often to invest with recurring investments that happen automatically. Ready to make your next investing decision? Head to fidelity.com trading Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member NYSE SIPC.
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Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
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And I'm Toby Howell.
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Today, would you let AI write your performance review?
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Then Qualcomm is getting into the AI chip game, much to the delight of its investors. It's Tuesday, October 28th. Let's ride.
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday. Today, October 28th is really quite special, and not just because it's Julia Roberts birthday. October 28th is the best day of the year for the S&P 500 on average, according to market strategist Ryan Dietrich. Going back to 1950, the index has gained an average of 0.5% on this day, making it the most bullish day on the calendar. Which is why Toby I am absolutely shocked to see stock futures flat right now. Do they not know they're supposed to go up?
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They do not know. They do not behave. First of all, this is replacing horoscopes in my mind. Going forward, I don't care if you're a Leo or or a Pisces. Give me the S and P average return on your birthday and I will know your personality. Neil Aug 21 I looked this up, a slight 0.4% loss. That means you're stable, reliable, nothing too flashy, and maybe a tad pessimistic myself. February 24th.11% gain Optimus great hair, impeccable sense of humor. And if your birthday is today, like Julia Roberts, happy birthday. You're the life of the party because you make everyone richer.
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And now a word from our sponsor, Disney Campaign Manager. Fandoms are everywhere. You name a show, movie or public figure and it probably has its own niche fan club.
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For instance, I am the founder of the hair and makeup search party.
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More on that later. What I'm getting at is if you're a marketer, you can get in on the perennial cultural conversation that fandoms run with Disney Campaign Manager.
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Tap into true cross platform storytelling and the ability to connect with diverse fandoms at scale.
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Learn more and get started at disney campaign manager.com that's disney campaign manager.com the.
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Government shutdown now on day 28 is taking a serious toll on people's daily lives in the economy. And it could get a lot worse by the end of the week. That's because Friday, November 1, is the deadline for a number of expiring programs that will cause significant pain to tens of millions of Americans should the government remain closed. All on that day, $9 billion of SNAP benefits or food stamps will not be sent to more than 40 million Americans, something that's never happened before in modern US history. American troops will also miss their next paychecks on Friday. And people looking for health care under the Affordable Care act will see major price increases in premiums. And it seems like things are hanging by a thread right now. More than 8,000 flights were delayed across the country on Sunday, joined by thousands more yesterday because absences by air traffic controllers who aren't being paid. Furloughed federal employees who haven't been paid in weeks are turning to the gig economy to work for Uber and DoorDash. And daredevils have taken over national parks that are open but understaffed. With a deal to reopen, the government nowhere in sight. And President Trump over in Asia with other priorities, some lawmakers are scrambling to find emergency funding sources for certain programs like SNAP that could cause major harm to Americans if suspended. But the clock is ticking.
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Yeah, let's start with the transportation crisis that's happening right now. I was looking at FlightAware yesterday afternoon. On Monday, Southwest had 15% of flights delayed, American 12%, Delta 9%. But the reasons behind those delays are becoming extremely apparent right now. U.S. department of Transportation officials said 44% of the weekend's delays stemmed from controller absences. The that is up from the usual 5%. So you are seeing a lot of people start to call in sick here. A lot of people say, I'm not getting paid. Why am I working while no one else in the government is working right now. And you know, the FAA is already dealing with a shortage crisis. They think they're 3,500 air traffic controllers short of targeted staffing levels right now. So again, if you are a normal everyday person, you're wondering how the government shutdown affects you. Flight delays are going to be one of the one things that are increasing in volume right now.
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Yeah. Right now there are 730,000 employees working without pay because of the government shutdown, air traffic controllers and TSA agents included. Another 670,000 federal workers are furloughed without pay. So they are not working. They are also not getting their paychecks. Let's move to SNAP. So about 1 in 8 U.S. residents get an average of $187 a month through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. That's called snap. It's the country's largest anti hunger program. It funding is going to lapse on November 1, on Friday, if the government doesn't get their act together and reopen. This is uncharted territory. This has never happened before where there's a funding lapse of snap. And there's a lot of bickering going on between hunger nonprofits and the usda, which runs the program. Hunger nonprofits say you can find there are emergency contingency funds that you can dip into in order to get this $9 billion out the door on November 1st onto these debit cards to replenish funds so people can go by food. The USDA has shot back saying, no, that is illegal. We are completely tapped out. So there's a lot of fight. Meanwhile, a hunger crisis is potentially brewing. Should these payments not go out? Food banks across the country are staffing up. They're seeing a lot longer lines from a lot of those furloughed workers who are not seeing a paycheck. And that could only, you know, grow into a, a much more damaging situation should these, these checks not go out on Friday.
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Right. You mentioned that. These contingency funds right now, they're saying they're not legally available because they said that they're earma for emergency situations. And a government shutdown doesn't classify as an emergency situation. That leaves a about a $4 billion shortfall. Right now, the SNAP program needs about $9 billion monthly to stay solvent. So obviously the program is a little short to stay solvent. As of right now, there are some bills that are being floated right now. Senator Josh Hawley introduced a bill to temporarily fund SNAP through the shutdown, but it hasn't necessarily advanced. We are seeing some stopgap bills starting to come both to address, you know, the air traffic controller situation. Ted Cruz is trying to get one pass that would pay air traffic controllers specifically during the shutdown, while this one is trying to fund a snap through the shutdown. But those bills haven't garnered a lot of attention, as you know. Still, the broader shutdown is the main focus here.
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And meanwhile, the shutdown is having some bizarre secondary impacts in ways you might not expect, such as BASE jumpers taking over Yosemite National Park. Typically, it's been rare to see People hurling themselves off El Copy time with nothing but a parachute because that risks a $5,000 fine and up to six months in jail. But half of all workers at Yosemite have been furloughed and enforcement of illegal base jumping is down. So since the shutdown started on October 1, visitors to the park have noted with amazement that they're seeing BASE jumpers fly over them in broad daylight with little fear of getting caught and little fear of much else. Apparently. As one climber said, when the cat's away, the mice will play.
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I learned two things when I saw this story. When one, BASE jumping is an acronym, I always just thought it meant jumping off something big. It means buildings, antennas, spans, and earth, which is a great trivia fact. And two, I didn't realize that so many people just love this sport and that the only thing holding them back was one, you know, the fear of fines, the, the fear of jail time. I guess that all kind of goes into making the entire experience something thrill seeking. But yeah, fascinating to see how people react in times of shutdowns. This is not something that you necessarily think about at the top of your list of what happens during government shutdown. But you know, all the power to the people jumping off Hellcap I've seen Free Solo. I do not want to mess with that wall. At least they have something attached to their back. Vs Alex Arnold with nothing at all.
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I'm moving on. It's almost performance review season. Everyone's favorite annual tradition when you have to make up a bunch of things you accomplished at work this year to present to your uninterested boss. Or here's another idea. I could do that for you. Which is more along the lines of what JP Morgan is thinking. According to the Financial Times, JP Morgan is giving workers the option to use its in house AI system to help them write end of year performance reviews. The goal is to make the process more efficient. JPMorgan Chase has more than 300,000 employees around the world, and that's a lot of shareholder value going down the drain when each one of them has to set aside time to explain whether they hit their 2025 goals. It could work. Boston Consulting Group has already instructed employees to use AI for performance reviews, which cut down writing time by 40%. Toby, we're seeing AI creep more into the workplace and it's no surprise it's disrupting the lowest hanging fruit performance reviews. Something no one likes doing.
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Yeah, when I first read this headline, I thought it's just the worst idea ever because performance reviews hypothetically should be something that you are spending time thinking about, because this does have to do with both reviewers and reviewees. It should be something that you do spend time thinking about. But if you are a bank and you're thinking about time equals money, then cutting down the time people are putting into these performance reviews, maybe they weren't putting their entire effort into it in the first place. That does lead to freeing up more time to work. Also, some standardized feedback could be good in this scenario right now, instead of playing favorites, if you just have an LLM, that kind of level sets everything, that it won't lead to a manager saying like, oh, I like this employee better than this employee. It was just kind of standardize everything. So those are some potential benefits. Even though on the service it does feel a little inauthentic and a little icky to have AI creeping into this more personalized aspect of the work experience.
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And right. Like, what's the point of doing a performance review if you have a bot do it for you? That said, if it is a part of the workplace and I still need to do it, then sure, I'd have a bot do it. Because I honestly, I hate doing them. And I'm sure a lot of people listening feel the same way. And then speaking of AI infiltrating the workplace, here's another consequence of that your accounting department is probably dealing with right now. Fake expense receipts. Expense software platforms are warning of a surge in fraudulent expense receipts created by employees using new AI image generation tools from companies like OpenAI and Google. According to the Financial Times, the fintech company Ramp said that it flagged more than $1 million in false invoices in 90 days, while AppZen said that about 30% of the fraudulent receipts it catches are generated by AI. And it makes sense if you're trying to cheat your company out of money. Why burn your retinas trying to Photoshop a fake receipt when you can just type in a prompt? Write me a receipt. For a dinner I had with clients at the Capitol Grill, we ordered six Wagyu Tomahawks and nine bottles of wine. Thank you. Of course I joke, but this is actually happening. Appzen said it flagged a bunch of aigenerated receipts for hotels and airfares to Bangkok by an employee who did not go to Bangkok.
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Yeah, obviously I tried this. First thing I did when I read this story is type in generate me a receipt, I said, of a Starbucks receipt at Boston Logan Airport. And the first thing it gave me wasn't actually that good. You have to prompt it a little bit. It didn't. It gave me a European total too, with a comma instead of a decimal. So then I asked it one more time, like, hey, make this a little more crinkly, a little more lifelike. And what it did do is say, stop, what will this receipt be used for it? And actually said it's not okay if it's for reimbursement or trying to deceive anyone financially. But then I just said it's for an art project. And then it allowed me to continue down this path of making receipts. So clearly the safeguards in place around generic LMS this was using Chachi Beatty isn't necessarily up to snuff right now. So if you are someone who works at your company and you are trying to get ahead of this corporate fraud, a new frontier or something like that, I do feel for you because of the barrier entry. Like back in my day you had to Photoshop it manually. Now it's a lot easier to just type in a sentence and have it generated for you.
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And of course the only way to fight AI is with AI. So these companies, these expense software platforms, are going to be beefing up their AI flagging systems because that's the only way that you can possibly tell that something is fake. The naked eye just won't do it. There are, there is metadata included in, there is metadata included in these images. OpenAI and Google, they say like if you, if you dig into the data that says this was created by an AI image generator, but all you have to do is take a picture of that and then the metadata goes away. So there's going to be an ARM race here between the companies and these scammers over fake receipts.
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Moving on, if anyone grew up playing Super Smash Brothers Brawl, there's this moment when you unlock a new character where the screen flashes red and the text appears. A new challenger approaches. FLASHES ON SCREEN well, the real life version of that just happened in the AI chip race. With Qualcomm entering the arena, Qualcomm announced two new AI accelerator chips yesterday, the AI 200 and the AI 250, designed to speed up AI processing encroaching on the territory currently dominated by Nvidia. You may not have heard of Qualcomm, but you've almost certainly benefited from its products before. It's the dominant chip maker for mobile phones, including supplying cellular modems to Apple for decades. But with Apple building their own modems in house going forward, Qualcomm needed to find a new business in the AI world beckoned. The niche it's targeting with its foray into AI is high memory chips that are good at running AI models, a process called inference. Rather than training models which other companies specialize in, Qualcomm will sell whole racks of chips or individual components, letting big hyperscalers from the big tech world mix and match should they choose. A win for companies like OpenAI who want to diversify away from relying solely on Nvidia. Clearly the market liked its positioning too, with the stock jumping as much as 20% yesterday on the news before settling up 11%. Neil Qualcomm has been sort of the forgotten chip maker amidst the AI rush, but better late than never.
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Qualcomm is like Billy Joel playing a set and not including Piano Man. You got to give the people what they want. You got to play the hits. And if you're not in the data center game as a chip maker, then you're missing out on a whole lot of revenue. $6.7 trillion is estimated to be spent on data centers through 2030. $6.7 trillion. So any little slice of that is a ton of money and a lot of incremental revenue. Nvidia is the dominant company in this space right now. It's going to generate $180 billion from its data center unit this year alone. That is more than any other chip maker including Qualcomm will rake in in revenue in total across their entire business. So Qualcomm is looking at this saying, yeah, we've phones for a long time. Let's adapt what we know. We do well in smartphones, which is low power use and high memory, and move that into the data center market where this entire industry is going.
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Yeah, I think that is the big selling point of Qualcomm right now is their memory capacity. They actually have more memory, more RAM per card than Nvidia or AMD equivalent. So if you are looking to run these models, which again, there are two main things that you do with these AI chips. Either you train models or you run them called inference. Inference. Very costly, not very efficient. So any efficiency gains that you can be made is something that these big hyperscalers are obviously interested in. And Qualcomm is like, hey, listen, we've been making chips that fit in your smartphone for years right now. If there's one thing we do know is efficiency and energy efficiency specifically. So maybe that is its niche, maybe edge case here that some of the other companies haven't necessarily been able to crack so far. And then finally the other thing that is really good at too is this plug and play mentality where again, if you are OpenAI and you're relying so heavily on Nvidia but you want to scale up another data center somewhere else and some of the chips aren't right or some of the racks aren't right, you want someone that you can just slide right into your existing system. And Qualcomm says, hey, we're down for that as well. So we are flexible, we are efficient. Give us a try is basically the pitch here for Qualcomm. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with Toby's Trends.
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You know that saying more money, more problems?
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Toby, of course. Why do you think my life is so chaotic?
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Sure. Well with startups it's more like more money, more security. Big enterprise deals usually come with even bigger security and compliance requirements.
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Yeah, the right kind of security posture doesn't just protect you, it can actually make or break a deal. Thankfully, Banta's AI and automation makes it easy for you to get Big Deal ready in days.
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They automate your compliance and continuously monitor your programs so future deals never get blocked. Plus, Vanta scales with your company so you'll always have the support you need no matter what growth phase you're in.
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Morning Brew Daily listeners can get $1,000 off at vanta.com/morning brew. That's vanta.com/morning brew. This message is a paid partnership with Apple Card I'm a person who really appreciates simplicity and when it comes to credit card rewards, the simpler the better. That's one of the many reasons I have an Apple Card. The rewards are super straightforward. I earn up to 3% daily cash back on my everyday purchases. There are no points to calculate, no limits or deadlines. Plus it's super easy to access my card and make payments from the Wallet app of my iPhone. If that sounds like the kind of simplicity you want in a credit card, apply for Apple Card in the Wallet app on your iPhone. Subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Brands terms and more@applecard.com welcome back to another edition of Toby's Trends, the segment where I take a deep dive in the business world to emerge with a trend that will give your brain a sugar high. And speaking of sugar, today's trend is a deep dive into the recesses of your jack o lanterns because it's all about what's hot in the Halloween candy market. This year, the New York Times did a write up and found that the overarching theme for 2025 is that kids just want to feel something. Flavor, maximalism and extreme sensory stimulation are in. That means when you steal some of your kids candy, you'll be confronted with extreme sour flavors, freeze dried takes on classic candies, and enough goo filled nerds clusters to last you a lifetime. If you are doing some grazing, beware of Skittles Gummy Fuegos, which are Skittles gummies coated in chili powder. You'll notice that I haven't mentioned any candy bars yet, and that's because these are dark times and deeds for chocolate. Cacao prices have more than doubled since 2023, sending chocolate candy prices up nearly 30% year over year, stretching inflation wary shoppers thin. A surprising comeback story this year is none other than candy corn, which has thrived in the social media era as creators make ASMR candy salads that rack up millions of views of what I can only assume to be hate watches. Neil, what do you think? Would you rather be a kid now with their current candy lineup or are you sticking to your era?
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What has Halloween come to? I mean, back in my era we were going after the big guys, Snickers, Reese's, Twix and Hershey's. It was physical, it was defense oriented, it was hand to hand combat. It was a pure time. Now that we've done to these gummies and sour things, I just don't recognize Halloween anymore.
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Yeah, it definitely is. Gummies is probably the name of the game at this point. The New York Times kind of tried to frame it as in this age of social media where kids are just mindlessly scrolling all the time, they just want something new and different, which is why you're seeing these hot candies, these extreme flavors. And it probably is true the candy market is shifting away from just normal Hershey's bars from your era into something more exciting. Another thing that they mentioned as a trend is that there's this unpredictability element that candy companies are putting in, which is Jolly Rancher Trick Gummies where the colors don't match the flavors, or Sour Punch Ghost Pepper Roulette, which has hidden ultra spicy pieces. Again, one of the themes that we keep seeing pop up here is spiciness was again we were saying back in my we just stick to the classics. Where's the spiciness coming from? I don't want spicy, I want sweet on Halloween. But yeah, that's another thing is like trying to inject a little bit of fun, a little bit of unpredictability into your candy purchases.
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The one thing we can't have on Halloween, though, is healthy. And that seems to be coming to Overall sales of gummies were up less than 2% this year, but sales of better for you versions that have less sugar and don't have artificial colors surged 54%. And that just doesn't sit well.
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I got to get your take though on the candy corn salad ASMR trend here. First of all, are you a candy corn guy? I feel like you might I do.
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Not like okay good.
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But it is crazy. They still the branch, the company that makes Candy Corn sells 22 million pounds of candy corn per year. Is it ironic or Please leave us a DM on Instagram if you love candy corn because I know you're out there. I don't know if you enjoy it ironically or if it's something that you're like delicious candy corn, but that trend is never something I can get behind.
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All right, let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Hurricane Melissa is expected to make landfall on Jamaica later today, setting all kinds of records. The Category 5 is the world's strongest storm this year and it'll likely be the strongest to ever hit the island in recorded history with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph. Officials are warning of life threatening conditions from a storm surge of up to 13ft and torrential rain that could reach 40 inches in some places. Jamaica's Prime Minister Andrew Holness said they've done all they could to prepare, but there's no infrastructure in the region to withstand a Cat 5. Now the only question is speed of recovery, right?
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The Jamaica hasn't had a direct hit from a hurricane in over a decade, let alone from a Category five. It's so it is expected to be the strongest storm to have hit the island since record keeping began all the way back in 1851. I was looking this morning. Meteorologists said that minimum central pressure of the storm decrease from 909 to 901 millibars early on Tuesday. Again, lower the pressure equals stronger the storm. To put that into comparison, Hurricane Katrina's lowest pressure ever was 902 millibars. So this is already a stronger storm than Katrina ever was. Moving on, Amazon is looking to get leaner and meaner with the E Comm giant expected to cut as many as 30,000 corporate jobs across departments. The announcement is slated for today and follows CEO Andy Jassy's push to streamline operations and reduce costs after Amazon's pandemic era hiring spree. It also reflects Jassy's growing emphasis on using AI to automate tasks once handled by humans, something we've talked about at the factory level, but also a shift he's warned will shrink the corporate workforce over time. Even though the figure represents a small percentage of Amazon's one and a half million total employees, it does come out to nearly 10% of its roughly 350,000 corporate employees. Now, we often talk about Amazon's warehouse workers as a litmus test for the broader job market, but now this is a shot across the brow of the white collar market. Even for Amazon, 30,000 jobs is a lot of jobs.
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It's going to be the biggest layoffs in Amazon's history. And this was signaled in June by Andy Jassy. You sent this memo that sent shockwaves around the corporate world, he said he told employees, in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company to send off a panic within Amazon and across anybody who works at a desk job. Because if Amazon, which employs 1.5 million people, the second largest employer in the United States, is thinking about reducing their workforce instead of increasing their workforce going forward, then what does that mean for the rest of us? So we'll be paying attention to the details of these layoffs today and bringing more tomorrow. It's not easy to make Donald Trump and Joe Biden seem young, but Cameroon is doing its best. Yesterday, President Paul Bio was announced as the winner of the recent election, extending his reign as the world's oldest serving head of State. He's 92 years old, and if he saw out his new term, his eighth, he'd be running the country at nearly 100 years old by the time it was over. Most Cameroonians have never known anyone else as president. It's a very young country with more than 70% of the population below age 35. And this election, which was criticized as manipulated by the opposition, revealed the heightened tensions between the country's youth and its geriatric leadership.
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Yeah, he is a non Nigerian. He's ruled Cameroon for 43 years. And I was looking under the Constitution, if the president cannot fulfill its term, either through his death or something else, the interim leader becomes the top Senate post, whoever holds that. And the guy who holds the top Senate post is 91 years old and also in poor health. So for a country where, you know, very young median age, the median age is 19 years old. To have two people in their 90s, as you know the, the two top candidates to lead the country going forward. It is a little bit of a wake up call. There were protests around because they did not think that this election was fair. So fascinating, though, that, you know, this country of 30 million people, of a lot of young people just has such a, an old ruling class right now.
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I wonder if he's bragging about his golf handicap in debates. He looks good, though. I mean, he looks good. We look, we looked at pictures like he look, he looks fine. All right. That is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your morning with us. Have a great Tuesday. For any feedback on the show or you just want to get in contact, send a note to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom or slide into our DMs on Instagram at me Daily Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup is learning how to base jump in Yosemite. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
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C
Great show, Daniel. Let's run it back tomorrow.