Morning Brew Daily – December 19, 2025

Episode Summary: Inflation Unexpectedly Cools & What is Going on with Oracle Stock?

Hosts: Neal Freyman and Toby Howell
Theme: Today’s episode tackles the surprising inflation report, dives into the odd Trump Media–nuclear fusion merger, reviews Medline’s major IPO, unpacks Oracle’s recent woes, and covers TikTok’s US spinoff deal and even Chipotle’s newest menu item.

Main Theme Overview

The episode provides listeners with a witty, market-savvy breakdown of the latest US inflation data and the skepticism clouding its accuracy, followed by deep dives into an unprecedented Trump Media–fusion energy tie-up, key stock stories (Medline’s IPO, Oracle’s troubles), and some fun headlines including the TikTok US spinoff, Chipotle’s “meat in a cup,” and LinkedIn’s new year-end review.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Inflation Report: Too Good to Be True?

(Start ~02:48)

• Headline: November annual CPI dropped to 2.7% (vs. 3% previously, 3.1% expected), marking the lowest inflation print in months.
• Broad Skepticism: Economists and Wall Street analysts doubt the report’s validity due to government shutdown disruptions:
  • 43-day shutdown hampered BLS in-person price data collection
  • October CPI report was cancelled, leaving no recent comparable baseline
  • November’s data likely skewed by late-in-the-month holiday discounts

Memorable Quotes:

• "Hold those horses, cowboys and cowgirls. Broad skepticism emerged across Wall Street and amongst economists who think that this isn’t the slam dunk report it initially appears." — Toby Howell [03:04]
• "Take this whole report with a pretty big grain of salt." — Toby Howell [04:03]
• "Lost in translation," "delayed and patchy Swiss cheese CPI report," and "take it with the entire salt shake," summarize analyst reactions. — Neal Freyman [04:07]

Why All the Skepticism?

(05:00)

• The lack of October data makes month-to-month readings unreliable.
• Data collection happened during Black Friday-heavy discount periods.
• Shelter costs, a massive component of CPI (3/4 of the index), were recorded as flat which artificially suppressed overall inflation.
  • "That shelter data was what economists did pinpoint as the biggest red flag here." — Neal Freyman [06:03]

What Now for the Fed and the Markets?

• The general trend is probably that inflation is slowing, but the numbers need confirmation from December’s (untainted) data.
• Fed likely to wait for clearer evidence before considering further rate cuts.

2. Trump Media’s Wild Fusion Bet

(07:14)

• Surprise Headline: Trump Media (parent of Truth Social) announces $6B merger with TAE, a leading nuclear fusion startup.
  • TAE is Google-backed, plus investors like Chevron and Goldman Sachs.
  • Trump Media brings not tech expertise, but fundraising firepower.
  • Despite doing just $4M in revenue, Trump Media has a $4B+ valuation—“people are happy to throw money at this company.”
  • "If Trump Media is good at one thing, it’s attracting capital." — Neal Freyman [08:23]

What is Fusion?

• Fusion = smashing atoms together (vs. fission = splitting atoms).
• Promises more energy, less risk, safer, no radioactive waste—basically the “holy grail” of clean energy.
• No one has yet achieved commercial-grade fusion on Earth.

Why the Partnership?

• AI infrastructure is massively energy-hungry. The winners need new, infinite sources of clean energy.
• TAE stands to benefit from Trump Media’s unprecedented ability to raise money if the “meme stock” magic holds.

Notable Quote:

• "At least we have a social media company on the case though." — Toby Howell [11:03, sarcasm]

3. Stocks of the Week: Medline’s IPO & Oracle’s Trouble

Medline’s Blockbuster IPO: A Win for Hidden Giants

(11:03)

• Medline, US medical supply leader, goes public in the year’s largest IPO.
• Stock jumped over 41% on debut day, closing at a $54B valuation.
• Not well-known outside the industry but giant: $24.5B in sales, 43,000 employees.
• Private equity (PE) win: Blackstone, Carlyle, and others pulled off one of history's biggest buyouts, now showing a successful exit.
  • "I have not heard of [Medline]. And I want everyone right now to take out the smallest violin that they have because this is a huge win for the private equity industry." — Neal Freyman [12:34]

Risks:

• Tariff and supply chain exposure (most products made in Asia).
• Demand considered “insulated”—people will always need medical supplies.

Oracle’s Sinking Stock: A Canary for AI?

(15:57)

• Oracle stock dropped 8% this week, extending a multi-month slump, flagged for risky levels of debt and unclear AI returns.
• Recent problems:
  • Overspending on data centers ($100B+ in debt).
  • Major backer Blue Owl Capital rumored to have withdrawn from a $10B data center project.
• Since September high, Oracle’s market cap has halved.
• Broader implication: Oracle as a “canary in the coal mine." If their AI infrastructure spending doesn’t pay off, the whole market’s AI optimism is under question.
• CoreWeave, another much-hyped firm, is down more than 60% since IPO.
• Some bright spots: Micron, a memory supplier, reports literally can't keep up with AI-driven demand.

Notable Quotes:

• "Oracle, which is setting off more red flags than a guy who follows a bunch of Instagram models." — Neal Freyman [15:57]
• "Maybe this is what's going on with Oracle right now, where they have all these, you know, commitments ... putting all this money into building out this infrastructure that we don't even know if we need yet." — Toby Howell [17:14]

4. Quick Hit Headlines & Lighthearted Moments

TikTok’s US Spinoff Gets the Go-Ahead

(20:22)

• TikTok to spin off US operations in a joint venture with US investors (incl. Oracle, Silver Lake).
• ByteDance retains <20%, bypassing US law triggers.
• The deal mainly aims to satisfy US politicians—US user data and moderation will be handled domestically.
• Valuation is a head-scratcher: TikTok US valued at $14B (it did $16B in 2023 revenue), likely under its real market value for political reasons.
  • "This is just not really a business deal, it is a political deal." — Neal Freyman [21:42]

Chipotle Launches “Meat in a Cup”

(22:59)

• Chipotle will offer cups of just seasoned chicken or steak as a high-protein snack.
• Attempt to tap high-protein diet trends and capture off-peak snack traffic; also a nod to smaller portion demands of Ozempic/GLP-1 weight loss users.
• Hosts riff on the innovation:
  • "Mo Sloff is out. Cup slop is so in at this point." — Toby Howell [23:42]
  • "Maybe if they just called it 'Meat in a Cup' it would actually go super viral because that’s what anybody is going to say anyway." — Neal Freyman [24:36]
  • "I'm not using a fork. I'm just tossing it straight back like this. Meat down the gullet in a cup." — Toby Howell [24:53]

LinkedIn Debuts “Year in Review”

(25:08)

• LinkedIn jumps on the ‘Wrapped’ bandwagon, now showing users their networking stats for the year.
• Mixed reviews: given the tough job market, it makes some users feel worse about job struggles.
  • "Someone had to say it. I mean, I got so many wraps this year...now I have a LinkedIn wrapped. A lot of people on social media said, read the room LinkedIn." — Toby Howell [25:52]

Community Game Winner

(26:36)

• Ladder game answer from Monday: characters were ordered by rainbow color (Mario, Garfield, SpongeBob, Hulk, Cookie Monster).
• Honorable mention for the most creative (incorrect) entry: “how much they love Italian food.”

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On Inflation:
  • "Hold those horses... Broad skepticism emerged..." — Toby Howell [03:04]
  • "Take this whole report with a pretty big grain of salt." — Toby Howell [04:03]
  • "That shelter data was the biggest red flag." — Neal Freyman [06:03]
• On Trump Media’s Fusion Merger:
  • "If Trump Media is good at one thing, it’s attracting capital." — Neal Freyman [08:23]
  • "At least we have a social media company on the case though." — Toby Howell [11:03]
• On Medline IPO:
  • "I have not heard of it. And I want everyone right now to take out the smallest violin...this is a huge win for private equity." — Neal Freyman [12:34]
• On Oracle Troubles:
  • "Oracle, which is setting off more red flags than a guy who follows a bunch of Instagram models." — Neal Freyman [15:57]
  • "Maybe this is what's going on with Oracle right now...we don't even know if we need [it] yet." — Toby Howell [17:14]
• On Chipotle’s “Meat in a Cup”:
  • "Cup slop is so in at this point." — Toby Howell [23:42]
  • "Meat down the gullet in a cup." — Toby Howell [24:53]
• On LinkedIn Wrapped:
  • "Someone had to say it. ... Read the room, LinkedIn." — Toby Howell [25:52]

Timestamps for Segments

• Inflation Report — 02:48–07:07
• Trump Media & Nuclear Fusion — 07:07–11:03
• Stock of the Week (Medline IPO) — 11:03–14:35
• Dog of the Week (Oracle) — 15:57–19:43
• Micron’s Bright Spot in AI — 19:43–20:22
• TikTok US Deal — 20:22–22:59
• Chipotle “Meat in a Cup” — 22:59–25:08
• LinkedIn Year in Review — 25:08–26:36
• Community Game & Sign Off — 26:36–end

Tone & Style

Neal and Toby maintain a light, conversational tone throughout, balancing serious economic analysis with signature irreverent humor (“meat down the gullet,” “smallest violin,” “red flags like an Insta model follower”). They’re quick with analogies, industry insights, and relatable asides that make business news snackable.

Takeaways for Listeners

• Recent inflation news, though positive on its face, must be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism due to data collection issues.
• Trump Media’s foray into nuclear fusion says much about the “capital-chasing” dynamics of speculative tech investments—and the ever-growing nexus between social media and energy for AI.
• Medline’s successful IPO is a big deal for PE, while Oracle’s stock stumble serves as a warning for over-leveraged AI bets.
• TikTok’s US spinout may settle some political dust, but leaves questions about value and control.
• “Meat in a cup” and LinkedIn’s Wrapped show corporations’ obsessions with trends and trying to meet (or miss) customer moods.

If you missed the episode, this summary gives you essential coverage, the best lines, clear context, and a sense of what’s next in markets, tech, and culture.