
There’s rumblings of a recession & federal leases get axed
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Toby Howell
Hey, Fidelity. How can I remember to invest every month? With the Fidelity app, you can choose a schedule and set up recurring investments in stocks and ETFs. Huh, that sounds easier than I thought. You got this?
Neal Freyman
Yeah, I do.
Toby Howell
Now, where did I put my keys? You will find them where you left them. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.
Neal Freyman
Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC.
Toby Howell
Member nyse, SIPC.
Neal Freyman
Good morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
Neal Freyman
Today, the company trying to de extinct the woolly mammoth is making progress. They just created wooly mice.
Toby Howell
Then one day after automakers lives got flipped turned upside down by tariffs, Trump gave the industry a one month reprieve. It's Thursday, March 6th. Let's ride.
Neal Freyman
If you were on social media at all last year, you probably saw this viral picture of a flamin hot Cheeto that uncannily resembles the rare Pokemon Charizard. Well, that single Cheeto, dubbed Cheeto Zard, has now been sold at auction for $88,000 to an anonymous buyer who beat out 60 other offers for the prize. And what is the prize? According to the auction house, Cheeto Zard comes affixed to a customized Charizard card and encapsulated in a clear card storage box, presumably to keep this piece of processed cornmeal from decaying. Toby, I decided not to bid on this one. I'm waiting for the Pikachu shaped Cheez it.
Toby Howell
Oh, I thought you're going to say Pickle chew there. I think this card is underpriced. Neil. Didn't think that was going to be my take, but two factors here led me to that conclusion. One, Charizard is one of the most valuable Pokemon characters. Holographic Charizard cards sold for upwards of $500,000. Two, it's a flaming hot Cheeto. What are the chances that it's a flaming hot dragon shaped Cheeto? Plus, this is not the first time a uniquely shaped Cheeto has sold for a lot of money. In 2017, a Cheeto that looked like Harambe the gorilla Rip pulled in nearly $100,000 on eBay. So whoever bought this, I think you got a great deal. And I will certainly be looking at the shape of my snack foods more closely now. A word from our sponsor, Invesco Cucu. Neil, I had a weird dream last night.
Neal Freyman
How many times do I have to tell you? Toby, you don't have to tell me about your dreams while we're on air.
Toby Howell
So anyways, I was a world famous investor that had one of those limitless pills that expanded my brain capacity and I had a finger in every pie. Tec, Care, Industrials, you name it. Me and my big brain found a way to invest in every single one of them.
Neal Freyman
I hate to burst your big brain bubble, but it sounds like you were dreaming about the Invesco QQQ etf. You can get access to the most innovative companies across the country in every one of those industries you were dreaming about.
Toby Howell
Well, in my dream I could also fly.
Neal Freyman
I will say dream. Toby is a way better investor than Awake Toby.
Toby Howell
Probably a better podcaster too. With Invesco Cuckoo, you can rethink what's possible before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risk charges and expense. Visit Invesco.com for a prospectus with this information. Read it carefully before investing. Full Disclosure in podcast description US automakers heard the sweetest nine letter word in the dictionary yesterday, hodgepodge jk. The word was exemption. One day before Trump's 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico went into effect, Trump announced a one month exemption for auto companies. The administration made the decision after speaking with officials from 4Gm in Stellantis yesterday, where they warned that rising costs from the tariffs would cause auto prices to spike by thousands of dollars. The reprieve sent shares in all three companies sharply upwards, fighting against the overall gravity of a market that is flashing an increasing amount of warning lights showing that the US May be heading down a path towards an economic slowdown. Despite the brief reprieve for automakers, tariff anxiety has sent recession fears spiking. A recent model from JP Morgan puts the chances of a recession at 31%, up from 17% in November. Another model from Goldman Sachs is also seeing a recession risk creep up now at 23%, up from 14% at the start of the year. While a downturn isn't the most likely outcome by any stretch, some key indicators are flashing strong signs suggesting the economy is on the precipice of sliding in the wrong direction. Oil prices are at their lowest level since October, stocks are reeling across the world. US Factory activity is stagnating, and perhaps most important of all, consumer confidence is slumping. All of those factors are combining to raise fears of stagflation in the US Economy, where prices continue to rise but growth slows. Neal, let's start with this tariff reprieve first, but then transition to what these recession indicators might mean.
Neal Freyman
Yeah, so for GM Stellantis, these executives got on the phone with Trump on Tuesday and said these these tariffs are going to raise costs for US and we're going to have to pass it on to consumers. Trump said. O I will grant you an exemption for one month and but you do have to qualify for a tariff free crossing across the border under USMICA, I guess it's called, which is the U.S. mexico, Canada Free Trade Agreement, which is essentially NAFTA 2.0 that Trump crafted with Canada in Mexico in 2020. You, any automaker covered under this agreement, you have a tariff free passage across the border. You need to, to qualify, you need to have a certain percentage of your parts sourced from North America. And the goal there was to source more parts from North America. All these automakers said they comply. So they get a one month reprieve. We still don't know what's going to happen at the end of this one month exemption. And the vast majority of tariffs, 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, an additional 10% on China that were introduced on Tuesday are still in effect. So when you look at companies like Target that said they were going to raise prices for produce coming across the Mexico border, Best Buy as well, those are still in place, which will only extend the stock market jitters and perhaps some of those, those economic warning signs that you mentioned.
Toby Howell
Yeah, let's run down some of those warning signs. Some of the data, Nominal personal spending fell 0.2% between December, January. That was the largest fall since all the way back in 2021. Adjusted for inflation, personal consumption was down 0.5%. It doesn't sound like a lot, but again, personal consumption is one of the big drivers of GDP in this country. US Retail fell, sales fell by about a percent between December and January. The consumer confidence survey that the conference board does, that slid this seven points in February. That was the steepest decline we saw since summer of 2021. So a lot of warning signs, a lot of cracks everywhere you look. Now we should take a step back though and say to be clear, sometimes financial markets aren't exactly Nostradamus when it comes to pricing in recessions. Recession bets were way off back in 2023. Bloomberg forecasted a 100% chance of recession. But the US consumer proved to be a lot more resilient than anyone expected in the face of those higher interest rates. So just take it with a grain of salt. Additionally, some of this bad economic news have come from reports based on surveys which is not, you know, first party data. It's really take them with a grain of salt. So we should say that despite all of these indicators flashing kind of yellow lights and red lights in some instances, you can't just say, oh yeah, we're definitely heading towards a recession.
Neal Freyman
Well, we'll find actually some hard data coming out tomorrow with the jobs report that will be very closely watched given the widespread cuts across the government, the government that DOGE is doing. And it's a really, you know, you talked about the soft data that we've been getting, these surveys. Well, this is hard data of how many jobs were added yesterday. There was a prior private survey of jobs that ADP does, which is essentially the, the preview of the government jobs report. And that also did not look very good. 77,000 jobs were added according to ADP, which is about half of expectations. So this jobs report is going to be so key tomorrow morning. Like your company's CEO during peak Covid, the federal government is trying to shed its vacant or underutilized office space in a DOGE led attempt to cut down on costs. On Tuesday, the real estate arm of the government, the General Services Administration, posted a list online of 443 properties it was considering selling, saying these properties were, quote, not core to government operations. The list was sweeping in scope, covering buildings in 47 states and including prominent structures in Washington D.C. such as the headquarters of the DOJ, Social Security Administration and Census Bureau. But then a plot twist. Before anyone could place a bid, the list was pared back by 100 properties later on Tuesday. And then by Wednesday morning, it vanished altogether. Instead, a message was posted on the GSA website reading non core property list coming soon, whatever buildings the final list contains. The prospect of the government ditching its vast real estate portfolio has received both support and criticism. But it certainly sent shockwaves through a commercial real estate sector that is still trying to recover after its worst downturn since World War II. Washington, D.C. which is especially vulnerable to a government real estate fire sale ended 2024 with an office vacancy rate at a near record 19.9%.
Toby Howell
Now, this isn't actually a new policy. It's just been happening faster than ever. The GSA has been reducing the government's office footprint since 2013. It's shrunk by over 43% over the last decade. Now it's just happening a lot quicker. And this has definitely been affecting the D.C. and the metro area. More than 98 leases covering 2 million square feet have already been canceled or restructured. In total, 63% of space cuts and 69% of cost savings have happened in the capital. So DC real estate market very much exposed to this initiative and it could deepen this commercial Real estate crisis that we've been seeing. The federal government just owns so much space in the capital. 174 million square feet of space. It pays $5.78 billion annually in rent. So by canceling leases, by selling buildings, the government risks leaving landlords with these big vacancies which would wor already pretty fragile office market.
Neal Freyman
Now some D.C. officials might be happy to see the government shed office space and have a private sector employer move in because the federal government is tax exempt from paying property taxes. So they're taking up all this space in your downtown, which would really help your tax rolls if someone was actually paying taxes. So they are in support of generally moving the government out of these buildings if they are underutilized, if they are vacant and get a private sector employer to move in. The question is, say you're a private company and you see the Department of Agriculture give up their big office space. That is not a new building. And the data show that private sector employers don't really want to move into older buildings. They want to move into, you know, the Hudson yards of DC, if those exist. Trophy and Class A plus buildings account for just 23% of DC's inventory. But they've captured 59% of all private sector relocation volume since 2020. So if you're a private company that wants to move HQs, the chances are that you would want to move to a government building that is not new is is quite low.
Toby Howell
One thing that is true though, the government has been overpaying for office space. A report found that Federal agencies pay 50% more per square foot than comparable private sector office buildings. So if you do cut this low hanging fruit like expensive leases, like expiring leases, you could save billions of of dollars. But you know, critics say the speed of the cuts is this thing that could disable this, this pretty fragile real estate.
Neal Freyman
And we had the list go up 443 properties. We had the list go down and then we had a message saying we'll let you know what the properties are for sale in the future. So it is just a waiting game at this point.
Toby Howell
Let's move on to our next story. Scientists have been trying to bring back the woolly mammoth, but so far all they've got is a really hairy mouse. Researchers at Colossal Biosciences announced this week that they have successfully genetically modified a lab mice to have long woolly coats similar to mammoths, marking what they claim it is an important step towards reviving the extinct species and also an important step towards giving mice funny little Hairdos, the Dallas based company has raised $435 million in the pursuit of de extinction, with plans to introduce woolly mammoth like elephants back into the world by 2028. But a mouse is a far cry from a mammoth. Critics have pushed back, saying that the team's changes mainly involved tweaking mouse genes to produce changes in their coats, rather than introducing any mammoth genes. There's also the critique that, hey, maybe these millions of dollars should go towards protecting ecosystems that exist right now, rather than making fuzzy lab animals in the pursuit of resurrecting the dead. But Colossal is confident in their vision. It does not accelerate anything, but it's a massive validating point. Ben Lam, Colossal CEO, told the Guardian, I encourage everyone to go look up furry mammoth mice to Neil because they do have some luscious locks.
Neal Freyman
Is this marketing hype? Is this a technological breakthrough? The answer is yes, all the above. There might be a little, you know, this PR team on Colossal works over time. And any time they, you know, make some genetic tweaks to an animal that, you know, people can already, scientists can do nothing that's new before they can put out a press release and we'll all cover it because these mice are so adorable. But there appears to be truly a technological breakthrough here because what Colossal is trying to do is edit genes of animals simultaneously, multiple genes simultaneously. And that is a technique that hasn't really been done before. They're using these new techniques brought about by technologies like crispr. And some independent scientists are looking at what Colossal is doing and saying, hey, this is actually innovation here. So in their pursuit of the woolly mammoth, or we should really say this, it's not going to be a woolly mammoth. It's going to be a genetically engineered Asian elephant to resemble certain traits of a woolly mammoth, like being able to, you know, weather the cold weather, then that is pretty impressive and you are making some real progress along the way.
Toby Howell
And their long term vision for this mammoth project is to not only resurrect a species species and make these advancements in gene technology, but they also think that it could help the environment because to them there's real utility to bringing back mammoths. The idea is that these animals could help restore Arctic ecosystems by preventing permafrost thaw, which releases carbon to the atmosphere. They walk over the ground, which actually compresses the snow and grass that insulates the ground. So they're saying that long term, if we introduce this species back into the world, it could actually, you know, help the environment in a meaningful way. But who knows actually because they are saying that this really the money could be spent doing things that, you know, save animals on earth now rather than like this future Hail Mary dream of a project. But you are right that they do make these advancements, they do put out these marketing press releases and you have to pay attention to them because I mean they made these really crazy looking mice right here. So I do think that there are approach could be criticized. But it does seem like they are making progress in some direction.
Neal Freyman
And how are they going to make money is the question. And they already have spun out two health care companies from this progress. So maybe that's the way it's they're going to create these new, new technological innovations as they're trying to create woolly mammoths that will lead to commercialization opportunities because you know they're worth $10 billion. They raised over $400 million. Those investors are going to be expecting some sort of return and that return may not exactly be so satisfying if it's just 10,000, you know, quasi woolly mammoths romping around the tundra.
Toby Howell
Up next. He was gone last week, but he's back now. It's time for Neil's numbers. He's about to break it down. This message. It's a paid partnership with Apple Card. Did you know you can earn up to 3% daily cash back on every purchase when you have an Apple Card? I said what? I said up to 3% on every purchase. You can even take that daily cash back and save it automatically when you open a high yield savings account through Apple Card. Whether you're embarking on an overseas trip or just grabbing a bite around the corner, Apple Card is built to be your smart spending sidekick wherever you are. It also helps that there are absolutely zero fees. To get started, head to the Wallet app on your iPhone where you can apply in minutes and start using your Apple Card right away to watch that daily cash roll in. Let's ride. Subject to credit approval, savings is available to Apple Card owners subject to eligibility. Apple Card and Savings by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch Variable APRs for Apple Card range from 18.24% to 28.49% based on creditworthiness rates as of January 1, 2025. Member FDIC terms and more@applecard.com Neil, you've had the chance to work with plenty of leaders in your career. What traits do you think are most important?
Neal Freyman
In my experience, a few things stand out, like leading by example, taking risks and being passionate.
Toby Howell
And for all those influential leaders out there. There's the Range Rover Sport.
Neal Freyman
That's definitely a match made in heaven.
Toby Howell
Absolutely. Each model strikes an ideal balance between on road performance and world renowned off road capability, sophisticated refinement and visceral power.
Neal Freyman
Explore the Range Rover Sport at range Rover.com US/Sport that's range Rover.com US/Sport welcome to Neil's Numbers, the segment where I share three stats from the week's news that will send you to a higher plane of consciousness. My first number is a warning to everyone planning to see your favorite musical artist this summer. Start saving now. Because the Pink Pony Club flies first class tickets for concerts have exploded in recent years, far outpacing inflation and transforming concert going into a luxury good few can reasonably afford. Since this is Neil's numbers, here are some numbers. Per the New York Times in 1996 the average ticket price for the top 100 tours was around $26, or $52 adjusted for inflation. By last year, that had surged to almost $136. When Bruce Springsteen went on his Born to run tour about 50 years ago, you could see him for as little as $44 adjusted for inflation. Tickets for Taylor Swift's Eras tour, which began in 2023, averaged $1,088 in all. Concert ticket prices increased by nearly 400% from 1981 to 2012 compared to inflation's 150% rise. And that was way before the end of COVID brought a spike in demand among people looking to get out of the house and experience life again. Toby In a recent survey of 1,000 members of Gen Z, 86% said they overspent on live events.
Toby Howell
FOMO is a hell of a drug. That was my big takeaway from this, is that they know that they shouldn't be spending this much on concert tickets. But you see all your friends go, you see them all going to the ERAS tour and you just can't help but shell out cast for guilty. Guilty. I know we we both went as well. FOMO is a heck of a thing. But I do think too that we are also seeing just these unintended consequences where some fans are going into debt for these, these concerts, taking on credit card debt. They see it as a luxury good that they're overspending on. And coincidentally, scams are also growing in tandem with concert prices. You've maybe seen like an Instagram ad for like cheap chapel roan tickets and then you click on that and you pay $400 to someone that isn't actually going to give you a ticket. So there is a lot of unintended consequences of this massive, massive upturn in ticket prices. Imagine, $44 to go, see, you know, Taylor Swift. It's just unfathomable these days.
Neal Freyman
For my next number, the number of marriages in China plunged 20% last year to a record low of 6.1 million, which is less than half the number registered in 2013. And some companies think they can help solve the depopulation crisis, taking we're a family here to the next level. One Chinese chemical manufacturer sent a message to unmarried employees recently giving them an ultimatum to start popping out babies by September 30th or else get fired. Quoted in the New York Times, the memo read, if you cannot get married and start a family within three quarters, the company will terminate your labor contract. The memo went viral on social media and not in a good way. People criticize the order as tone deaf and representative of the reasons China's millennials are shying away from parenthood to begin with. They want people to stop telling them what to do, their lives and bodies. In response to the backlash, the company withdrew the memo and the local government ordered it to undergo, quote, rectification. Toby, this feels like something Lumen would try to pull off in severance.
Toby Howell
It is just a massive overstep. But officials have been trying these soft pressure tactics for a long time now. Those include visiting women at home to ask about their pregnancy plans, promoting, you know, this propaganda that pregnancy makes women smarter. Their goal, they say, is to create this fertility friendly social atmosphere, especially in workplaces. And this is not the only company that is pushing initiatives like this. There's this other big supermarket chain in China. The chain's founder posted on social media last year that he would forbid employees to exchange bride prices, which are these payments that can go upwards of tens of thousands of dollars that a man traditionally gives to a future wife's family. He also said that employees would not be allowed to invite more than five tables of guests to their wedding. Which, honestly, maybe not a bad strategy. Constraints, you know, breed creativity there. You really figure out who your, who your good friends are in that case. But, yeah, this is just something that's been going on in China for a long time now. The government and private employers may be overstepping their boundaries to try to increase the fertility rate.
Neal Freyman
For my final number, the NBA's Dallas Mavericks are raising season ticket prices by more than 8%. And talk about not reading the room. The price hike comes as Mavericks fans are suffering through one of the most miserable months in sports history. The MAV said that prices were going up due to, quote, ongoing investments in the team and fan engagement, and explained that full season ticket holders will save up to 23% compared to projected secondary market prices. But for fans, it was rich to mention ongoing investments in the team when general manager Nico Harrison traded away generational superstar Luka Doncic to the Lakers in February in one of the most flabbergasting, inexplicable trades seen in sports reports anywhere. Since that trade, Mavericks diehards have staged protests against management around their home arena and watched as more of their stars, such as Kyrie Irving, get injured and have to sit out the rest of what was once a promising season. Toby1 fans post on social media pretty much sums up the state of despair. The audacity of this ownership group to come in and destroy the soul of the fan base and then price gouge. It is disgusting.
Toby Howell
However bad a day you think you are having, Mavericks fans are having a worse one. It's honestly just staggering at this point. This isn't pouring salt in the wound, this is making a spicy margarita in the wood left by the Luka Doncic trade. And they are saying that yeah, their season ticket increase actually represents savings of 15 to 23% when you compare it to the secondary market for next season. But that doesn't even make sense because if demand goes down, then it stands to reason that the price on the secondary market will go down as well. So this is just pretty much unjustified. I mean, maybe this was always planned. This was obviously something in the works for a while, but the fact that you roll it out now in the wake of everything that's happened, disaster when it comes to PR for the team. Now let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Apple just refreshed the MacBook Air with its new AI Focus M4 processor, a slightly upgraded webcam, and most importantly, a lower price. The 13 inch model now starts at just $999, making this the cheapest MacBook Air since Apple's transition to making its own silicon. While the updates aren't groundbreaking other than the fact that it also comes in a beautiful sky blue hue. Now the price cut is strategic as Apple faces pressure from slowing Mac sales and increasing tariffs on imported electronics. Now at this point, Apple is running up against the boundary of what you can do with a laptop. How much thinner and more powerful can they make this thing?
Neal Freyman
Well, the Mac has actually been one of the few bright spots for Apple as iPhone sales have stagnated The Mac line in Q4 grew 16%, which is way more than expectations. And Tim Cook said that the MacBook Air was one of the reasons. And now he gives it $100 price shave, even in the face of tariffs on China. And you could see that that might even spur more demand, which has already been pretty strong for these computers. Moving on. The world's largest iceberg has ran aground in the shallow waters near South Georgia in the South Atlantic, where it'll spend its final days gazing at macaroni penguins and elephant seals before melting and breaking up into a bunch of smaller bergs. This iceberg, named A23A, is almost unimaginably big. It weighs nearly 1 trillion tons, is larger than the state of Rhode island, and has cliffs that tower over 1300ft. Scientists have been watching its moves with great curiosity ever since it broke off the continental antarctic shelf in 1986 and later got stuck literally treading water in the Weddell Sea for about three decades. Toby, is the Titanic finally getting a sequel?
Toby Howell
Well, the Titanic looks puny in comparison because the Titanic, the iceberg that sank the Titanic, was maybe a quarter mile long, which is just laughably tiny. In the face of this 1500 or 1300 square mile behemoth. A lot of scientists are saying, what is an iceberg like that look like? It just looks like a landmass at this point. You can't see the edge of it. So it just literally looks like land in the middle of the ocean. Also, I was looking into what happens when something of this size melts. It can sometimes be a good thing for an ocean ecosystem because because icebergs contain nutrients that it could stimulate ocean productivity. The area it's in right now has lots of seals, local predators as well. So it could actually be a boon to the particular spot in the ocean where it's kind of met its final resting place.
Neal Freyman
But also you mentioned that the Titanic berg was much smaller and that really is the danger for commercial fishing and shipping operations. When it's so big like this, you can easily avoid it when it breaks up into a million small pieces. That's where it gets a little more dangerous. So look out. For the first time ever, the World cup is getting a halftime show. Yesterday, FIFA announced that the final match of the 2026 tournament, held at MetLife Stadium in our backyard of New Jersey, will feature a Super bowl style halftime show. And here's the catch. The lineup will include a list of artists curated by Coldplay. It's going to be electric when Ed Sheeran performs his diss track for Benson Boone.
Toby Howell
It's not quite Kendrick vs Drake, but I'm just nervous that soccer fans are crazy because they've started to roll out performances before games like the Champions League final. Last year Lenny Kravitz played at Wembley Stadium, but then two years ago or three years ago, Camila Cabello was absolutely drowned out by Liverpool and Real Madrid fans ahead of the Champions League final. If this is a tense final, you're telling me that Ed Sheeran is going to come out between, you know, Argentina versus Brazil or something like that. The fans are just going to be going ballistic. So who knows how? I can't imagine that, you know, the Imagine Dragons would be received very well. Finally, a Florida man just took the phrase eat the rich to a whole new level. Please say 32 year old Jason Gilder walked into a Tiffany and Co jewelry shop, claimed to represent a pro athlete and convince employees to show him high value items before snatching over $750,000 worth of earrings and making a run for it. When officers caught up with him later that day, they saw him, quote, swallowing several objects believed to be the stolen earrings, which turned the heist into the world's worst waiting game for authorities. I encourage you all to go look up this X ray which police released showing a foreign object inside of his abdomen. All I can say is only in.
Neal Freyman
Florida, Neil, what is the resale value of this when it comes out the other end?
Toby Howell
Just, I don't even want to think about that. Just pop it in some cleaning solution. I'm sure Tiffany, you know, put it back on shelves soon after.
Neal Freyman
Let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Thursday. This week is moving right along. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. And if you're enjoying the show, share it with a friend, family member or co worker. Toby who should everyone listening share it.
Toby Howell
With Today I want you to share the podcast with someone who should probably go look through their old Pokemon cards again. Or share it with someone who should go look through their snack foods a little more closely. You never know what you might find.
Neal Freyman
Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Eugenio Ogu is our technical director. Scoop Stardaris is on audio Hair Makeup is taking out a loan to see the Gracie Abrams Show. Devin Emery is our chief Content officer and our shows are production of Morning Brew.
Toby Howell
Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.
Morning Brew Daily: Markets Fear Recession is Near & Scientists Create Woolly Mammoth... Mice?
Release Date: March 6, 2025
Hosted by Neal Freyman and Toby Howell, the "Morning Brew Daily" podcast delivers insightful and witty commentary on the latest developments in business, the economy, and beyond. In this episode, titled "Markets Fear Recession is Near & Scientists Create Woolly Mammoth... Mice?", released on March 6, 2025, Freyman and Howell delve into a range of intriguing topics, from economic indicators signaling potential recession fears to groundbreaking advancements in genetic engineering. Below is a detailed summary capturing all key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.
Overview: The episode opens with a discussion about the recent one-month tariff exemption granted to U.S. automakers by President Trump, following industry concerns about soaring costs due to new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. This temporary relief caused a spike in automaker stocks but also intensified broader recession anxieties.
Key Points:
Tariff Exemption Details: Trump’s decision to grant a one-month reprieve was in response to warnings from executives at companies like GM and Stellantis. The exemption applies to automakers qualifying under the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), which mandates a certain percentage of parts to be sourced from North America.
Recession Indicators: The hosts highlight increasing recession probabilities, citing JP Morgan's model forecasting a 31% chance of recession (up from 17% in November) and Goldman Sachs' model estimating a 23% risk (up from 14%). Key economic indicators such as falling oil prices, stagnant factory activity, and declining consumer confidence are contributing to these fears.
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: Freyman and Howell explore the precarious balance in the market, noting that while the tariff reprieve offers short-term relief for automakers, it does little to alleviate the overarching economic concerns. The decline in personal spending and consumer confidence, coupled with potential government actions like reducing office space, suggest that the U.S. economy is teetering on the brink of a slowdown.
Overview: The discussion transitions to the U.S. government's initiative to reduce its vast real estate portfolio, particularly in Washington, D.C., and the broader implications for the commercial real estate market.
Key Points:
Real Estate Reduction: The General Services Administration (GSA) initially listed 443 properties for sale but later pared down the list and eventually removed it, indicating uncertainty in the selling process.
Impact on D.C. Market: Washington, D.C., faces significant challenges with a near-record office vacancy rate of 19.9%. The government's efforts to cut costs by selling or canceling leases exacerbate the fragile state of the commercial real estate sector.
Private Sector Reluctance: Private companies prefer modern, Class A office spaces over older government buildings, limiting potential buyers and worsening vacancy issues. Additionally, federal agencies have been paying up to 50% more per square foot compared to private sector rates.
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: The hosts highlight the complexity of the government's real estate strategy, noting both financial motivations and potential unintended consequences. While cost savings are clear, the reduction in government occupancy may lead to increased vacancies and financial strain for landlords, further destabilizing an already struggling market.
Overview: A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to Colossal Biosciences' ambitious project to de-extinct the woolly mammoth, currently making headlines with the creation of genetically modified woolly mice.
Key Points:
Scientific Progress: Colossal Biosciences successfully engineered lab mice with long, woolly coats, marking a preliminary step toward their goal of reviving the woolly mammoth by 2028.
Criticism and Support: While critics argue that the project focuses more on aesthetic changes rather than true genetic resurrection, supporters recognize the technological advancements, particularly in editing multiple genes simultaneously using CRISPR technology.
Environmental Implications: Colossal posits that reintroduced mammoth-like elephants could aid Arctic ecosystems by preventing permafrost thaw, thereby mitigating carbon release.
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: Freyman and Howell weigh the scientific achievements against ethical and practical concerns. While acknowledging the breakthrough in genetic engineering, they question the allocation of substantial financial resources toward de-extinction efforts over current conservation needs. The potential environmental benefits present a compelling argument, yet skepticism remains about the project's broader implications and commercial viability.
Overview: In "Neil's Numbers," Freyman addresses the unprecedented rise in concert ticket prices, transforming live events into luxury commodities and affecting consumer behavior, particularly among Gen Z.
Key Points:
Price Inflation: Concert tickets have seen a nearly 400% increase in prices from 1981 to 2012, outpacing inflation rates.
Consumer Behavior: A survey revealed that 86% of Gen Z members have overspent on live events, driven by Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and escalating ticket costs.
Secondary Market and Scams: The surge in prices has led to increased scams, with fraudulent vendors selling overpriced or fake tickets, exacerbating financial strain on fans.
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: The hosts discuss the economic ramifications of inflated concert prices, highlighting how they exclude a significant portion of fans from attending live events. The intersection of high demand and limited supply creates a luxury market, leading to financial distress and fraudulent activities. Freyman and Howell suggest that both consumers and the industry need to address these unsustainable pricing practices to ensure accessibility and fairness.
Overview: Freyman brings attention to China's plummeting marriage rates, which have significant implications for population growth and economic stability. He examines how companies are responding to this demographic shift with controversial policies.
Key Points:
Marriage Decline: Last year, marriage registrations in China fell by 20% to a record low of 6.1 million, signaling a potential depopulation crisis.
Corporate Ultimatums: Some companies, like a prominent chemical manufacturer, issued ultimatums to unmarried employees to marry and have children by a set deadline or face termination.
Public Backlash: These intrusive policies have been met with widespread criticism and backlash on social media, prompting companies to retract their demands and undergo "rectification" as ordered by local governments.
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: The conversation underscores the tension between government and corporate efforts to address demographic challenges and individual rights. The aggressive strategies employed by some employers reflect the urgency felt by organizations but also highlight cultural and ethical dilemmas. Freyman and Howell question the effectiveness and appropriateness of such measures, suggesting that they may exacerbate the very problems they intend to solve.
Overview: In another segment of "Neil's Numbers," the podcast examines the Dallas Mavericks' decision to raise season ticket prices by over 8%, juxtaposed against the team's recent poor performance and controversial management decisions.
Key Points:
Price Increase Justification: The Mavericks cited "ongoing investments in the team and fan engagement" as reasons for the hike, claiming that season ticket holders would save up to 23% compared to secondary market prices.
Fan Backlash: The timing of the price increase, following the trade of superstar Luka Doncic and the team's subsequent struggles, has led to widespread fan dissatisfaction and protests.
Market Logic: Toby Howell points out the flawed logic in the price hike, arguing that declining team performance should correlate with lower, not higher, ticket prices due to decreased demand.
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: Freyman and Howell critique the Dallas Mavericks' strategy, highlighting a disconnect between management decisions and fan sentiment. The price increase, perceived as insensitive and ill-timed, risks alienating the fan base further and may not yield the intended financial benefits. The hosts suggest that the team’s leadership needs to realign its priorities to rebuild trust and support among its supporters.
Overview: The podcast covers the recent event of the world's largest iceberg, A23A, grounding near South Georgia in the South Atlantic, and explores its environmental and navigational implications.
Key Points:
Iceberg Specifications: Weighing nearly 1 trillion tons and larger than Rhode Island, A23A has been observed for decades since breaking off the Antarctic shelf in 1986.
Environmental Impact: As it melts, the iceberg could benefit local ocean ecosystems by releasing nutrients that enhance marine productivity in the area, which is home to populations of macaroni penguins and elephant seals.
Navigational Concerns: Compared to smaller icebergs like those that sank the Titanic, A23A poses a different set of challenges for shipping and fishing operations once it breaks into smaller fragments.
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: Freyman and Howell discuss the dual nature of such massive icebergs, recognizing both their ecological benefits and the potential hazards they pose to maritime activities. The melting of A23A serves as a reminder of the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of Earth's climate systems, posing both opportunities and threats that require careful monitoring and management.
Overview: The podcast highlights FIFA's decision to introduce a Super Bowl-style halftime show for the final match of the 2026 World Cup, set to feature a lineup curated by Coldplay, including performances by artists like Ed Sheeran.
Key Points:
Halftime Show Introduction: For the first time, the World Cup final will include a high-profile entertainment segment, aiming to enhance the global event's appeal.
Potential Fan Reactions: Freyman and Howell express concerns about the feasibility and reception of such performances, citing past instances where entertainment acts were overshadowed by passionate soccer fans during major events.
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: The hosts view the introduction of halftime shows as a bold attempt by FIFA to emulate the commercial success of the Super Bowl. However, they caution that the unique dynamics of soccer fandom, characterized by intense passion and loyalty, may present challenges in integrating mainstream entertainment seamlessly into the sporting spectacle. The potential for disruptions or fan disinterest remains a point of uncertainty.
Overview: Concluding the episode, the hosts recount the peculiar case of Jason Gilder, a Florida man who attempted to steal over $750,000 worth of earrings by swallowing them during a Tiffany & Co. heist.
Key Points:
Heist Details: Gilder posed as a pro athlete to access high-value items, ultimately ingesting several earrings to prevent their recovery by authorities.
Police Response: An X-ray released by police revealed foreign objects in his abdomen, highlighting the unusual and extreme measures he took during the robbery.
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: Freyman and Howell find the incident both absurd and indicative of the lengths to which individuals might go for high-value thefts. The bizarre nature of ingesting stolen jewelry adds a layer of dark humor to the story, underscoring the unpredictability of criminal behavior.
In wrapping up, Neal Freyman and Toby Howell encourage listeners to engage with the podcast and share it with friends who might appreciate the blend of insightful analysis and entertaining commentary. The episode skillfully navigates complex economic issues, cutting-edge scientific endeavors, and quirky news stories, providing a comprehensive overview of current events with both depth and levity.
Final Thoughts: The "Morning Brew Daily" episode effectively balances serious economic discourse with lighter, more whimsical topics, ensuring that listeners receive a well-rounded perspective on the day's news. Through clear sections and engaging dialogue, Freyman and Howell deliver a summary that is both informative and entertaining, catering to a broad audience seeking to stay informed and entertained.