
Meta’s new policies has brand safety concerns & Delta is pushing the boundaries
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Good morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
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And I'm Toby Howell.
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Today could Meta's fact checking pivot cost it precious advertising dollars?
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Then midtown Sweetgreen restaurants rejoice. JP Morgan has called every one of its 300,000 plus employees back to the office. It's Monday, January 13th. Let's ride.
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Kicking things off with an update on the wildfires in Los Angeles, which California Governor Gavin Newsom said would be the costlies disaster in US History. Over the weekend, firefighters took advantage of calmer winds to make some progress battling the blazes, slowing the progress of the Eaton fire near Pasadena and corralling more of the Palisades fire near the coast. About 13% contained as of this morning. The death toll increased to 24 and is expected to rise. Authorities said the weather is not looking good for firefighting earlier this week with at least two heavy blasts of Santa Ana winds expected. But later in the week the winds are projected to calm down and remain low for the week end.
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Also, if you've been on social media, you've no doubt seen some of the aerial firefighting efforts going on, both from the smaller Nibbler helicopters and the bigger so called Super Scooper planes that are swooping into douse parts of the blaze. Those iconic water bomber planes are actually here on loan from Canada as part of a longstanding agreement between the Canadian and U.S. governments to kind of share aid when fighting wildfighters. Right now there are two planes in L A being flown by rotation of eight Canadian pilots. Two more are getting folded into the rotation this week, which is good too because the FBI is currently investigating incident where one of the super scoopers hit a civilian drone damaging it. So hopefully that can get back up in the air soon because seeing these super scoopers in action, it is pretty remarkable to see just how nimble the pilots can be and how accurate they can be when trying to fight these fires. Now a word from our sponsor, public.com Neal Change is hard.
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Podcast Description Mark Zuckerberg's makeover of Metta for the Trump era took a surprise and dramatic turn last week when the CEO said his company would end its use of third party factory checkers in favor of the crowdsourced community node system employed by Elon Musk's X. Could that cost it business? Potentially. Some marketers are now saying that the change could limit their ad spend on the platform if it were to lead to the unchecked spread of fake news, harmful content and hate speech. Several advertising bosses told the Financial Times that brands are beginning to reassess their plans to advertise on Meta's platforms over brand safety concerns. For Metta, advertising is not just an important source of revenue, it's the only source source of revenue. In the third quarter, advertising accounted for 98% of Meta's total sales of $40 billion. Its 21% share of the US digital ad market is only second to Google Met. His ability to keep advertising dollars flowing not only keeps the lights on now, but it's also crucial for subsidizing those futuristic money sucking bets such as the Metaverse and AI. So the stakes are enormous. Toby, do you think Zuck's gamble on Community Notes will lead to an advertiser exodus?
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I mean, just look at X to see the answer to that question. Because when X has been kind of the opposite of Metta when it comes to brand safety, if you want return on investment, if you want this close relationship with these brands, you don't necessarily look at X as the poster child of that. Because with Elon Musk kind of more laissez faire this third party without fact checkers to keep the platform pretty buttoned up, you have seen advertisers kind of flee the platform and Metta has long been seen as more of a safe haven where you will find more brand safe content to place your ads next to. So even though Metta is kind of copying X's fact checking approach, you do see how it can unsettle advertisers if you do not have some of these safeguards in place. So yeah, there is definitely a little bit of fear out there that Metta could start to turn more into a platform that resembles X.
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Now the rebuttal to this is that Metta's ad tools are second to none Maybe second to Google, but along with Google, it has built this duopoly in digital advertising. It has incredible targeting tools. Brands often see just incredible performance when you place an ad in on Meta's platforms like Instagram or Facebook proper. So the pushback to that is if brands continue to see that performance on their money, that roi, then they're not going to go anywhere and that really is all they care about. Metta did a full court press to advertisers on LinkedIn and other places saying, look like we still have these brand safety tools in place. Those are not going anywhere. We want to make sure your ad dollars aren't, your advertisements aren't appearing next to harmful content. But still these quotes given to the Financial Times from the ad leaders said, yeah, people are going to start reassessing their advertising spend, so we'll see whether Metta takes a hit. On the other hand, you can say that this, this story goes in a million different directions, but you could also say that maybe it is a self defeating move in the advertising space, but it is a plan to future proof Meta's business in the next administration because there is a huge antitrust trial looming in April and a lot of these changes that Mark Zuckerberg has been making to Metta is, is, are to get in the good graces of the Trump administration. So a lot of moving parts here.
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I don't think you will see advertisers care as long as the platform continues to perform. They don't really care what their ads are appearing next to if they are still getting the same ROI that they've been enjoying. So that's probably maybe the cold hard truth that a lot of these advertising execs did say like, hey, as long as it still makes sense to put our ad dollars there, we will do that regardless of the new fact checking strategy. But I do think that last part that you mentioned is very important. Zuck has kind of looked at the playing field here, seen some of the antitrust action that is being levied against big Tech and saying, wait a second, whoever's currently in office has a lot of say and usually does end up influencing who or what the, you know, antitrust apparatus of the United States ends up operating like. And so saying trying to cozy up a little bit to the Trump administration might just be a long term bet on the future of matter. He's positioning himself. People are calling Zuckerberg a little bit of a chameleon in this sense that he is going where the winds are blowing. So part of it is potentially Something that he has to consider when it comes to impacting his business, his bottom line. But also he is looking ahead and saying I need to position myself well for these next four years. Workers at America's largest bank are donning their Patagonia vests and lacing up their dress shoes once again as they prepare for the end of the work from home era. Hybrid employees at JP Morgan got hit with a memo last week saying they will be asked to return to in person work five days a week starting in March. Most of the bank's workers were already back clocking in, including senior managers in client facing roles. This latest move affects mostly back office roles like call center workers who had still been rocking two days a week from home. But so far the bank's 300,000 plus employees aren't taking it very well. JP Morgan ended up shutting off comments on the internal memo after employees criticized the move, with some even suggesting unionizing. Neil on the one hand, about 70% of the bank's employees were already back in the office five days a week. But also this is certainly the end of an era.
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It is the end of an era, as we like to say a lot. And some of these quotes of that people were putting on the message which I think are quite revealing. One person said that someone who was driven around in bio chauffeur must have made the return to office decision. Another said they were bullish on Rolex prices as you mentioned. One comment I think that raised a lot of attention was that maybe workers should unionize. Another finally said this ain't it. So whenever we've seen this over the last few months, Amazon, Starbucks, Dell, AT&T have all are all large corporations that have said, you know what, this hybrid working experiment that we've implemented since COVID is not working for us for whatever reason. You can read between the lines. Maybe it's quote unquote a soft layoff or something like that and they're starting to bring workers back to the office. But the thing is, as we've seen from these companies bringing workers back to the office, you need to have your office ready. And that hasn't gone totally well. And I think that's why JP Morgan says we're going to give you a 30 day heads up so we can actually get our stuff in order at our New York offices or wherever they have offices to make sure that we're ready for when you come back in. Because that hasn't been always the case.
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Yeah. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan has made it very clear in multiple interviews over the last few years that he is a workplace traditionalist. He does think that face to face interpersonal communication and collaboration is the way to run a business. That is really what he is saying here is like we think that the best way to run a company is like this is in person. That is the rationale behind this. But I do think what you are seeing too is that we are seeing some of a bifurcation in terms of return to office. Is it about productivity or is it about saving some of the money that these businesses are wasting on these empty desk chairs? I do think that Resume Dawg, they did this survey where they talked to business leaders. One in three business leaders want workers back in the office due to existing lease agreements. So what is the motivation here? Is it just that jp, Jamie, Jamie Dimon is looking at all these empty office chairs and going, wow, this is a lot of money I'm wasting. Let's get people back in the office. Or is it really about increasing productivity?
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Well, have you seen what they're building in Midtown? They're building a huge skyscraper, 60 stories. 14,000 workers are supposed to fill it. So yeah, maybe there are some considerations there. It also comes at a time we got this new report out on Friday. 20.4% of office space in the country's top 50 cities were empty. That is a new record for office vacancies. So whatever the return to office mood is, the offices are still more empty than they've ever been in the United States. The US economy said goodbye to 2024 with the most spectacular fireworks display of them all. No offense, Sydney Opera House. According to the monthly jobs report out Friday, employers added 256,000 jobs in December, smashing expectations of 155,000. And for the cherry on top, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, which was also better than estimates. All signs point to a healthy labor market. With December's numbers in the books, we now have the ability to do jobs wrapped. And look at the hiring picture across the entire year. Bottom line, it was historically good. The US economy created 2.2 million jobs in 2024, more than the 2 million added the year before the pandemic in 2019. Hiring was positive for every month of 2024. In fact, December marked the 48th consecutive month of net job creation, tied for the second longest streak on record. The last time the economy lost jobs was in December 2020. You don't think this would be cause for a celebration on Wall Street? But no. Stocks had their worst day in weeks Friday after the report came out. Toby, why the discrepancy between the great job numbers and the really bad stock market day?
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Unfortunately, this probably puts future Fed rate cuts a little bit more in doubt because of this absolutely amazing report. You called it the greatest fireworks show since Sydney Opera House. It looks like interest rate cuts are probably a little bit more distant. Part of the reason is, is that if the labor market is so strong, if the economy is humming along so well, do we really need to cut rates going forward? So if you look at some analysts from the biggest banks in the country, Goldman Sachs now expects just two rate cuts from the Fed in June, in December, as opposed to a previously anticipated three. And then economists at bank of America actually believe the Fed is done cutting rates. They see a possibility actually that the central bank may be looking at raising rates. I'm just saying what bank of America economists are saying right now. So that is why you saw a little bit of this red day to close out the week. Because all of a sudden this possibility that, wait a second, these rate cuts are not as guaranteed as we thought they were because of just how good these jobs numbers were.
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And you know, we do have to talk about the bond market as well. Now that's something that we, we discussed last week. Bond yields are surging, which indicates that bonds are selling off. The 10 year yield right now is at 4.8%. It's really bumping up against 5%. That 5% yield on the 10 year is, is very rare. It last happened in 2023 in the year and the time before that was not until 2007. Now rising brawn prices indicate that traders think that there's going to be higher inflation going forward, which means the Fed is not going to cut rates at all. And that puts pressure on stocks because when bond yields are this high, it makes them more attractive relative to, to stocks, especially tech stocks, especially growth stocks, especially small cap. So if it hits 5%, some analysts are warning of a pretty steep correction in the stock market. So we will be paying attention to what happens with those bond prices. It's not just a US issue either. It's all around the globe bond prices are rising. That's the biggest story going on in financial markets right now.
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And then the final thing to keep an eye out for this week is Wednesday. The CPI report comes out. And if that comes in higher than expected, if inflation is a little bit more persistent, a little hotter than expected, that is when you might see the Fed put its already cooling plans for a rate cut completely on ice. And just say, hey, we are done going forward because we need to tame inflation. Sorry about your stock portfolio.
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I'm putting you on the spot. We're going to get GTA 6 or a rate cut first.
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Oh gosh. What's GTA 6?
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October. October.
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Okay. I hope we get a rate cut before that. That's I'm on record. Rate cut before GTA 6 up next. Do not go anywhere. We have our winners of the weekend coming right up.
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Pop quiz Toby. What do brands like Aloe, Allbirds and Skims have in common?
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For one thing, they're all top notch brands that sell directly to consumers.
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Bingo. But achieving big name success comes down to more than having a cool brand and brilliant marketing. Who's behind the scenes powering each and every one of their sales?
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Shopify of course, nobody does selling better than Shopify. They're home to the number one checkout on the planet.
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And we've got to mention they're not so secret. Secret Shop Pay Shop pay boost conversions up 50%. That means fewer abandoned carts and higher rev numbers.
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Shopify should be every business's one stop shop to growth.
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Level up your biz and sign up for your $1 per month trial period at shopify.com/morning brew all lowercase that's shopify.com/morning brew All Lowercase CFO is kind of have it tough when it comes to getting legit visibility into company wide financial health. They're working with too small tech that can't really keep up with the big time.
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That's why so many CFOs turning to the right AI powered finance software to unlock the next stage of their biz. In fact, I saw somewhere that 78% of finance leaders emphasize AI's importance in gaining a competitive edge.
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The go to player in this space is sage. They help CFOs automate manual processes and give them a real time view of their numbers so the finance pros can spend more time on doing the big stuff that matters.
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Sage can slash build processing time by two to three times. That's huge. Plus, their AI powered tools empower CFOs by allowing them to review thousands of transactions in minutes and combine all their entities in seconds. Yep, CFOs can finally see best practices across their whole organization.
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Sage is long trusted and well established. They've been in business for over 40 years and were ranked number one in customer satisfaction by G2 for mid market accounting software.
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Oh geez. For sure. To level up your biz, head to www.sage.com/morning brew that's www.sage.com Morning Brew welcome to Winners of the Weekend, the segment where Neil and I picked two stories who had a better weekend than Philadelphia Eagles fans. Since Neil refused to pick anyone other than the Philadelphia Eagles as his winner of the weekend, I'm taking full control of this segment and doing two winners back to back for you all. Plus I won the pre show bridge competition so I was up first. Anyways, my first winner is cooking up a parlay in seat 14A. Delta recently announced a partnership with the sportsbook DraftKings so you can get your heart rate elevated 10,000ft in the air. The announcement, which came at CES, was a little light on details, but you can be assured that it won't be anything too crazy, seeing as gambling on commercial flights has been illegal in the US since 1962. More than likely the partnership will end up being some less flashy in flight game or SkyMiles sports betting deal. Still, the prospect of actual gambling in the air is tantalizing for an airline the size of Delta. A Department of transportation study from 1996 found airlines could make more than $1 million per aircraft if they offered gambling, which for Delta would come out to $1.3 billion annually. Neal Given those figures, it's no surprise that there have been some attempts to get gambling into the skies over the years, this one being the latest.
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It started in 1981. Singapore Airlines installed actual thing about this physical slot machines on Boeing 747. You could actually walk up from your seat. There probably weren't seatbelts or seatbelt signs at the time and go play the slots. That was discontinued, not surprisingly, after people started crowding the back area and the machines started breaking. And over the years there have been other attempts to put gambling in flights. Ryanair also like right? Currently that Irish airline does allow scratch off. They sell scratch off tickets. So there has been lobbying in the past to the US Government to allow gambling on flights and maybe the the Delta drafting partnerships. Yeah, you said there's not a lot of details, but it's possible that they'll start with this and then maybe cite the study that was done in 1996 and put a little pressure, maybe get its other US airlines on board and say Trump administration, maybe you want to reconsider putting gambling on board. You can gamble literally anywhere else in most states right now, so why not 30,000ft up in the air?
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I do just want to paint the vision that Ryanair CEO had. This was all the way back in 2005 that they were saying that potentially we should offer in flight gambling. The vision was that potentially giving the money that you make off of these games, you could offer people the chance to fly for free. Because if you just change the business model to we are now a gambling business, that is where most of our revenue come. We just want people to gamble on board our planes. We don't actually need them to pay for a ticket. So that was the vision floated back in 2005. It hasn't exactly come to fruition because of various laws, but it just paints a different picture of like, what if you're flying was subsidized by gambling in the air. Obviously, there's a lot of other ethical and maybe potentially moral issues you could have with gambling up in the air. But yeah, this is definitely something that you see a headline like Delta Inc. Partnership with DraftKings and you start to think, oh my gosh, am I really going to be cooking up parlays while I'm fastening in for a long haul flight?
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But one other, one other problem with this is what they call it's gambling is a mood modifier and losers if you are, you know, Toby, I mean, actually you're on a winning streak right now, but if you start losing and you are on a plane, you could, you know, not you personally, but like some people could throw a temper tantrum. And we know that, you know, in flight incidents have picked up in the post Covid era. So just, you know, it adds more pressure to flight attendants and people working on the plane to have someone, you know, have a big swing in moods that are associated with gambling. So if I was pushing against this, I would, I would certainly point this be like, we don't need any more sort of variables in the air. Let's just take off and land without any incidents.
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Preach. Neal. My second winner of the weekend is Robo Vacuums. Because the days of your Roomba rolling over a dirty stock and knocking itself out of commission appear to be over. Two companies, Roborock and Dream unveiled commercial robot vacuums at CES this year that come with extendable arms that can pick up clutter in its path with grasping pincers, then deposit them in a bin to clear the way for vacuuming. But Roborock or Dream won't be winning any arm wrestling competitions anytime soon. Roborock's max capacity is 300 grams, which is a little bit more than half a pound. While Dream says its arm can lift up to 500 grams, which means it can pick up something as heavy as A shoe as long as you're less than A Men's Size 9. Neal, it's not just robo arms either. Dreams machine has quote unquote legs that can propel itself up 2 inches in the air. Not exactly stair climbing height yet, but perfect for small elevation changes between rooms. But the main takeaway here, Neal, is that these things, these robot vacuum cleaners are evolving into almost full on little butlers.
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They are. And you know, this was introduced at CES last week in Las Vegas. There was thousands, maybe tens of thousands of products unveiled. The robo vacuums were the talk of the town. CNET's editors, which looked at all of these products, are ranked the Roborock one as unanimously the best of CBS award. It's the first mass market robot vacuum with a mechanical arm that can pick up socks. And this had been, you know, a huge sticking point for robot vacuums that they would get caught in socks and other places around your room and just not. Or avoid them and not clean those parts of the fact that they can pick up debris in the way and, you know, place it in a designated spot. It's one of the capabilities as well. Seems, you know, we laugh, but it's a pretty big innovation in the space and could lead to more adoption.
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And then another innovation that got people talking was Samsung released this AI robot vacuum cleaner that can actually detect intruders if it sees suspicious activity. During the time that it's out puttering.
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Around cleaning your little Macaulay Culkin.
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Yeah, your house, it will send you a push notification. But it also kind of conjured up these odd dreams of if these robots can eventually start, you know, climbing stairs, can see the environment around it. What if you wake up in the middle of the night and the robot has climbed in your room and is looking at you? So it did open up a little bit of dystopian ideals here. But I do think that as the smarter you can make these robots, the more hurdles you can get them to overcome, the more effective that they actually are. The home is this very complex, it's very dynamic environment for a robot to operate in. So seeing these innovations, it did get a lot of people fired up. And I, I've always wanted a, I had a Roomba vacuum cleaner right when they first came out, but they would just always end up under the couch or end up getting caught in the curtain like that. So the better that they can untangle themselves, the better that these products are going to be.
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As per Monday tradition, let's close out the show with a preview of the events you should know about this upcoming week. It could be the final week that TikTok exists as a functioning app in the United States. On Friday, the government and TikTok battled it out in front of the Supreme Court, and the justices indicated they were more sympathetic to the government's case that Tik Tok presents a national security threat which overrides free speech concerns. In other words, it appears they won't overturn a ban. SCOTUS is going to speedrun a decision since the ban would go into effect on Sunday, so expect a final ruling on TikTok's fate later this week.
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I'm getting my last scrolls and I think I might just delete it today to rip the band aid off because it will just be a long, slow Remember, they are not going to delete it off of your phone. What will happen is that they won't be able to ship updates anymore, so the app will just continue to get more buggy, more laggy. So might as well just rip the band aid off now and delete it while you still, you know, have the chance.
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Yeah, this is an absolute huge story and will affect the social media information landscape. So we'll definitely talk about it more later week Confirmation hearings begin for Trump's Cabinet picks, so get ready for some fireworks on Capitol Hill. On Tuesday, former Fox News host Pete Hegseth will go in front of a Senate committee to make his pitch to lead the Department of Defense. Pam Bondi, the former Attorney General of Florida, is up on Wednesday for AG of the United States. And on Thursday, billionaire hedge fund manager Scott Ascent will make his case for Treasury Secretary. C SPAN is going to have its highest ratings in years.
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This was a little trip down memory lane for us too, because we spoke about when all of these people were not nominated. Now we'll see if the confirmation process goes a little bit more smoothly than maybe the nomination process.
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And I should say defeat of a nominee by a vote in the Senate is virtually unheard of. The last time it happened was in 1989 during the incoming presidency of George H.W. bush. So you basically do all this vetting beforehand and you hope to sail through the Senate, which is now controlled by Republicans after the election they were sworn in earlier this year. Speaking of tv, the highly anticipated second season of Apple's Severance is out on Friday, three years after its debut season. Everyone must watch this now. It's an incredible show and the second season has received glowing reviews. Over in movies, Oscar nominations were originally scheduled for Friday, but that's been pushed to Sunday due to the wildfires in Los Angeles.
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Neal, you have been telling me to watch Severance nearly every single day over the past week, so I think I just got to rip the band aid off and do it. It looks incredible.
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Also disrupted by the fires is playoff football. The wild card game between the Vikings and Rams has been moved from L A to Arizona tonight. Other winners from the weekend's playoff action were the Texans, Ravens, Eagles and Commanders.
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Congratulations to your Eagles once more.
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Thank you, Toby. Let's wrap it up there. Thanks for starting your morning with us and have a productive start to the week. Almost as productive as AJ Brown on the sidelines reading a book. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. And we'd be so grateful if you shared the podcast with your friends or family. Don't wait, just drop a link in the group chat as soon as this episode ends in 30 seconds they already listen. Toby's got another sharing idea for you.
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I want you to share the podcast with someone who is already tired of winter. Just stay strong. A few more dark and cold days to go and then we hit some slightly less dark and slightly less cold days.
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You got a few more as in two months. Three months. Let's scroll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive Executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Uchenawa Ogu is our Technical director. Billy Menino is on audio hair makeup. Just lost their life savings from the middle seat. Devin Emery is our Chief Content Officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
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Great show, Danielle. Let's run it back tomorrow.
Morning Brew Daily: Detailed Episode Summary
Episode Title: Meta’s Fact-Check Overhaul Scares Advertisers & Delta Teases Gambling Mid-Flight?
Release Date: January 13, 2025
Hosts: Neal Freyman and Toby Howell
Timestamp: 00:24 - 02:02
Neal Freyman opens the episode with an update on the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles. California Governor Gavin Newsom has labeled these fires as the costliest disaster in U.S. history. Over the weekend, firefighters made significant strides by utilizing calmer winds to combat the Eaton fire near Pasadena and the Palisades fire along the coast, achieving approximately 13% containment by morning. Tragically, the death toll has risen to 24 and is expected to climb further due to unfavorable weather conditions, including two heavy Santa Ana wind blasts anticipated later in the week, before a forecasted calming trend by the weekend.
Toby Howell adds context by discussing the aerial firefighting efforts showcased on social media, highlighting the use of both nimble Nibbler helicopters and larger Super Scooper planes, which are currently operated by Canadian pilots under a bilateral aid agreement. He notes, “seeing these super scoopers in action... it is pretty remarkable” (02:08).
Timestamp: 03:56 - 06:18
The conversation shifts to Meta's recent strategic pivot in fact-checking. Mark Zuckerberg announced the discontinuation of third-party fact checkers, transitioning to a crowdsourced community node system similar to Elon Musk's X (formerly Twitter). This move has ignited concerns among advertisers regarding potential increases in fake news, harmful content, and hate speech, which could jeopardize brand safety.
Neal explains the gravity of the situation: “For Metta, advertising is not just an important source of revenue, it's the only source of revenue” (04:53). Meta’s ad revenue constitutes 98% of its $40 billion sales in the third quarter, holding a 21% share of the U.S. digital ad market, second only to Google. The overhaul threatens to destabilize Meta's ad ecosystem, which is crucial for funding ambitious projects like the Metaverse and AI initiatives.
Toby weighs in, drawing parallels with X’s reputation for poor brand safety: “you have seen advertisers kind of flee the platform” (06:18). He suggests that Meta’s shift might erode advertiser confidence, potentially leading to a significant exodus if brand safety is compromised.
Timestamp: 06:18 - 09:33
The hosts discuss JP Morgan’s recent decision to mandate that over 300,000 employees return to the office full-time by March. While approximately 70% were already onsite, this move primarily affects back-office roles previously enjoying hybrid work arrangements.
Neal reflects on the broader trend: “Whenever we've seen this over the last few months... you need to have your office ready” (08:24). He notes the logistical challenges, including preparing office spaces for a full return, which JP Morgan is addressing by providing a 30-day notice to employees.
Toby explores the motivations behind this shift, questioning whether it’s driven by a desire to enhance productivity or to cut costs associated with underutilized office space: “is it just that jp, Jamie Dimon is looking at all these empty office chairs and going, wow, this is a lot of money I'm wasting” (09:33).
Timestamp: 10:35 - 13:23
Neal presents striking job market data: December saw the addition of 256,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. This robust performance marks the 48th consecutive month of net job creation, a milestone tied for the second-longest streak on record.
However, the stock market reacted negatively to these numbers. Neal asks, “why the discrepancy between the great job numbers and the really bad stock market day?” (11:05).
Toby explains that the strong job numbers reduce the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, as a bustling economy diminishes the need for monetary easing. He cites Goldman Sachs' revised prediction of two rate cuts and Bank of America economists forecasting potential rate increases: “interest rate cuts are probably a little bit more distant” (12:21).
Timestamp: 13:23 - 14:48
Neal delves into the bond market, noting that bond yields are nearing 5%, a level not seen since 2007. Rising bond yields indicate trader expectations of persistent inflation, suggesting the Fed may maintain or even raise rates. This scenario pressures the stock market, particularly affecting tech and growth stocks, as high bond yields make bonds more attractive by comparison.
Toby adds that the global bond market is experiencing similar trends, emphasizing the widespread impact on financial markets: “that's the biggest story going on in financial markets right now” (14:25).
Timestamp: 15:08 - 24:14
Toby highlights Delta’s recent announcement of a partnership with DraftKings, introducing in-flight gambling options. While details are sparse, the collaboration aims to explore possibilities beyond traditional in-flight entertainment. Neal reminisces about past attempts by airlines like Singapore Airlines and Ryanair to incorporate gambling, noting legal and logistical challenges: “perhaps get its other US airlines on board and say... why not 30,000ft up in the air?” (18:32).
However, concerns are raised about the potential for in-flight gambling to lead to passenger disturbances: “some people could throw a temper tantrum” (21:15).
The duo also discusses innovations in robot vacuum technology introduced by Roborock and Dream at CES. These new models feature extendable arms capable of picking up clutter and depositing it into bins, addressing common issues like getting stuck in socks or scattered debris. Neal cites CNET’s accolades for Roborock, describing it as “unanimously the best of CBS award” (23:09).
Toby adds that Samsung's AI-powered vacuums can detect intruders, enhancing home security: “it did open up a little bit of dystopian ideals here” (23:20). The hosts agree that these advancements are transforming robot vacuums into more versatile home assistants.
Timestamp: 24:14 - 28:00
Neal previews significant events for the upcoming week, starting with the critical Supreme Court decision on TikTok’s fate. The Court appears poised to uphold the ban based on national security concerns, potentially ending TikTok’s operations in the U.S.: “expect a final ruling on TikTok's fate later this week” (24:25).
Other notable events include confirmation hearings for Trump’s Cabinet nominees:
Neal underscores the historical rarity of Senate vote defeats for nominees, hinting at smooth confirmations despite partisan tensions: “defeat of a nominee by a vote in the Senate is virtually unheard of” (25:10).
Additionally, the hosts mention entertainment highlights:
Finally, Neal and Toby touch on the relocation of a playoff football game from LA to Arizona, celebrating the weekend's sports outcomes, particularly the Philadelphia Eagles' victories: “Congratulations to your Eagles once more” (26:57).
Neal and Toby conclude the episode by encouraging listeners to stay engaged and share the podcast, offering a blend of business insights, current events analysis, and engaging discussions on technology and entertainment. They wrap up with a lighthearted nod to enduring winter challenges and tease future episodes.
Notable Quotes:
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