Middle East Conflicts Upend Gas Prices & Meta AI Chats are Public?

Summary

Morning Brew Daily: Episode Summary Title: Middle East Conflicts Upend Gas Prices & Meta AI Chats are Public?
Hosts: Neal Freyman and Toby Howell
Release Date: June 16, 2025

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1. Middle East Conflicts and Their Impact on Global Oil Prices

Conflict Escalation Between Israel and Iran

Neal Freyman and Toby Howell delve into the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighting its significant repercussions on global oil prices and the broader economy.

• Neal Freyman ([03:22]): "The long simmering feud between the regional rivals entered a new register on Friday when Israel pummeled Iranian nuclear and military sites and what it said was a preemptive blow to prevent Iran from making a nuclear weapon."

• Toby Howell ([04:48]): Emphasizes Iran's crucial role in global oil production and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of the world's oil flows. "Even if they don't close it, vessels going through the Strait face this elevated risk of potential collateral damage, misidentification, a lot of safety issues."

Market Reactions and Economic Implications

The podcast discusses the immediate market responses, including a sharp 7% increase in oil prices and a flight to safe-haven assets like gold and the dollar. Despite the volatility, some analysts believe the market has become more resilient to such shocks compared to past decades.

• Neal Freyman ([05:31]): "Trade is going to become more efficient. And of course, security has a price. And that's why everyone is really focused on oil prices, because it's not just oil, it's the entire global economy at stake."

Stable Oil Prices and Consumer Impact

Despite fears of soaring oil prices, gasoline remains relatively affordable compared to the previous year.

• Toby Howell ([06:44]): Points out that "a gallon of regular gasoline costs on average $3.14 this past month, down from $3.45 the same time last year," providing some cushion for consumers.

Market Resilience and Investor Behavior

The hosts observe that oil prices have stabilized post the initial spike, with S&P 500 futures showing resilience.

• Neal Freyman ([07:12]): "Every time there's tariff announcement or a spark up in the Middle east, all these retail traders come in and buy the dip. And that's exactly what we're seeing this morning."

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2. The Evolution of Influencer Marketing and AI Influencers

Shift Towards User-Generated Content

Neal and Toby explore the dynamic changes in the advertising industry, where user-generated content is now surpassing professionally produced media in ad revenue.

• Toby Howell ([07:45]): "Ad revenue from user generated content is starting to surpass that of professionally produced media."

Growth of the Influencer Economy

The influencer marketing industry is projected to reach $33 billion by 2025, a 36% increase from the previous year, driven by brands recognizing the value of personal connections influencers have with their audiences.

• Neal Freyman ([09:04]): Discusses the integration of influencers into media plans as a core strategy rather than a supplementary tactic.

Advantages of Influencer Marketing

Influencers offer a cost-effective alternative to traditional celebrities and enable direct impact through platforms like TikTok, where content can lead to immediate sales.

• Toby Howell ([09:42]): "You know that they just drove those sales because someone bought it live."

Rise of AI Influencers

The conversation shifts to the emergence of AI influencers, which present no reputational risks and are becoming significant players in the marketing landscape.

• Neal Freyman ([10:34]): "AI influencers can't really get canceled. I'm sure there will be talk about how AI influencers can. It's crazy to even think about, but they're becoming a major force in the marketing industry as well."

Meta's AI Advertisements and Privacy Concerns

Meta's initiative to automate ad creation with AI includes the creation of AI influencers. However, this move raises privacy issues as users inadvertently share personal conversations.

• Toby Howell ([11:10]): "Users of the app have in some cases been unwittingly posting their private conversations for everyone to see."

• Neal Freyman ([12:44]): "Meta has come out with a statement saying that your interactions with our chatbot do not get automatically posted to this feed. You have to go through a four-step process."

Privacy Risks and User Behavior

Despite Meta's safeguards, many users are unaware of the privacy settings, leading to the public sharing of intimate and personal information.

• Toby Howell ([13:34]): "This is basically the modern version of that where you're seeing people's just intimate details of their life. So a little bit of a privacy nightmare but also extremely illuminating to see how people are developing these close relationships with AI."

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3. Winners of the Weekend

Neal and Toby introduce a lighter segment where they share personal wins from the weekend.

• Neal Freyman ([16:34]): Winner is stablecoins, discussing their potential to revolutionize payment systems by bypassing traditional payment rails, offering significant cost savings for retailers like Amazon and Walmart.

  • Neal Freyman ([18:03]): "Retailers wouldn't have to pay an interchange fee and money would be dropped in their bank account quicker than it is now."

  • Toby Howell ([20:12]): Highlights the challenges for consumers adapting to stablecoins, such as the need to preload wallets and the current dependency on credit card systems.

• Toby Howell ([20:12]): Winner is live-action remakes, using the success of the latest "How to Train Your Dragon" live-action film to illustrate the trend's profitability despite criticism.

  • Neal Freyman ([21:26]): Discusses the director's initial skepticism and eventual commitment to creating a quality remake, resulting in high audience approval.

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4. Looking Ahead: Key Events of the Week

The hosts outline major events and their potential impacts on the economy and society.

G7 Summit in Kananaskis

Scheduled in the Canadian Rockies, the summit will address global economic issues, including trade agreements and sanctions on Russia.

• Neal Freyman ([23:12]): "With President Trump in attendance, the global economy and trade will be a focus, as well as Canadian wildfires and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East."

Upcoming Deadlines and Economic Reports

• Toby Howell ([23:45]): Highlights the expiration of Liberation Day tariffs on July 8 and the subsequent deadline for the US and EU to finalize a trade agreement to avoid hefty tariffs.

Federal Reserve Meeting

Scheduled for Wednesday, the Fed is expected to maintain current interest rates amidst economic uncertainties.

• Neal Freyman ([24:21]): "Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to once again hold interest rates steady."

• Toby Howell ([24:48]): Discusses the possibility of future rate cuts based on economic indicators like inflation and labor market strength.

New York City Democratic Primary for Mayor

The primary features 11 candidates, including former Governor Andrew Cuomo, with ranked-choice voting shaping the election outcomes.

• Neal Freyman ([25:09]): Explains the mechanics and strategic implications of ranked-choice voting in the election.

Sports Highlights

• Neal Freyman ([26:34]): Mentions Game Five of the NBA Finals and the ongoing FIFA Club World Cup, noting the demanding schedules for soccer players.

Juneteenth and Summer Solstice

• Neal Freyman ([27:00]): Notes the celebration of Juneteenth, the new federal holiday commemorating the end of slavery, and its impact on market operations.

• Toby Howell ([27:47]): Reflects on the seasonal shift post-summer solstice, marking shorter daylight days ahead.

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Conclusion

Neal Freyman and Toby Howell provide a comprehensive analysis of the current Middle East conflicts and their economic implications, the evolving landscape of influencer and AI marketing, and upcoming significant events. Their insightful discussion offers listeners a nuanced understanding of complex global issues, backed by relevant quotes and expert commentary.

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For more insights and updates, tune in to Morning Brew Daily available on all podcast platforms and YouTube.

Transcript

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[Neal Freyman]

Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.

[Toby Howell]

And I'm Toby Howell.

[Neal Freyman]

Today, war in the Middle east has put a spotlight on oil prices, but just how high will they go then?

[Toby Howell]

People are accidentally posting very intimate details from their lives on Meta's AI. Apparently it's Monday, June 16th. Let's ride.

[Neal Freyman]

Good morning and welcome back to the Week. Here is a question. How important is it for a brand to have a catchphrase? Shake Shack thinks it's pretty crucial. The burger chain, which does not currently have a slogan, has hired the team behind RB's we have the Meats to develop a catchphrase of its own. The CFO said last week they're looking for a slogan that succinctly communicates Shake Shack's brand and captures why people love it, believing that adding a tagline could actually supercharge growth. Toby, you've been known to frequent Shake Shack. Got any ideas to help them out?

[Toby Howell]

Well, first of all, I love that they went to the best in the business here. Straight to the we have the meets people from Arby's. What if those people came back three months later? Goes we have it, guys. We definitely have the slogan for you, Shake Shack. And they go, we also have the meats. If that doesn't work, then maybe another option is thin patties, full arteries, can't lose. Maybe that wouldn't sell so well. But honestly, it's got me thinking too. What would be a good catchphrase for Morning Brew Daily? I mean, we have let's ride, but beyond that, maybe weigh in in the YouTube comments or on Spotify and tell us what Morning Brew Daily's slogan should be. And now a word from our sponsor, Amazon Ads. Neil, you ever try to win an argument using just vibes?

[Neal Freyman]

No I'm actually pretty logical and data driven. Now arguing with you, on the other hand, I hear a lot of I don't have the actual numbers, but I feel like I'm right.

[Toby Howell]

Well, usually because I am right. But you're correct. It's a bad habit of mine. But that's also how most small and medium businesses approach their marketing. You put an ad out there and just hope it lands in front of the right viewers. In reality, though, you want less vibes, more results. You want Amazon ads.

[Neal Freyman]

One of the great parts about Amazon ads is that it's not just for businesses that sell on Amazon. Local shops, car dealerships, even service providers can use Amazon streaming TV ads to help get in front of relevant audiences during shows they're already watching.

[Toby Howell]

Plus, you can actually measure what's working, adjust, optimize, repeat. That's how you make every dollar count. Gain the ads with Amazon ads by going to advertising.Amazon.com start now. That's advertising.Amazon.com start now.

[Neal Freyman]

Let's begin the show in the Middle east, where Israel and Iran continued to bombard each other with missile strikes over the weekend, raising fears of spiking oil prices and energy market upheaval. Should the conflict escalate from here. The long simmering feud between the regional rivals entered a new register on Friday when Israel pummeled Iranian nuclear and military sites and what it said was a preemptive blow to to prevent Iran from making a nuclear weapon. Iran has retaliated by sending volleys of ballistic missiles at Israel and the two have traded deadly missile attacks for the past four days. Now. Any conflict involving Iran has consequences for the entire global economy, given its key role in oil production and shipping lanes. Fearing supplies could be cut off, investors sent oil prices more than 7% higher on Friday, their biggest one day gain in years. Markets broadly went into the classic flight to safety mode. Stocks fell to their biggest loss and near a month, while gold and the dollar gained. But many analysts noted that the market moves were relatively muted compared to the mayhem that ensued during potential oil shocks 30, 40 years ago. Some speculated that Wall street has become sanguine to flare ups between Israel and Iran over the past couple of years, with plenty of investors swooping in to buy the dip and being proven right when tensions die back down. Still, who knows whether this time could be different? And at least one energy expert, Javier Blas of Bloomberg, says the threat of major oil Middle east shock is alarmingly high.

[Toby Howell]

It's not just Iran's role as a major oil producer, it's Also its proximity to the entire region as a whole, especially transit routes, it gives it a ton of leverage over global energy markets. One of that points of leverage is the Strait of Hormuz, which is we've talked about on the show before. A third of all the world's oil flows through that, and they've often made threats to potentially close that during times of tension, though they don't often follow through and actually carrying those out. But, but even if they don't close it, vessels going through the Strait face this elevated risk of potential collateral damage, misidentification, a lot of safety issues. So even if they don't shut it down, it will restrict the flow just because of how uncertain things are right now, Right?

[Neal Freyman]

I mean, on. On Friday, the world's largest publicly listed oil tanker company, it's called Frontline, said we're not taking any new orders going through the Strait of Hormuz. It may be open, and that is the key artery through which oil and natural gas flows from the Gulf to the rest of the world. So we're not taking any more orders because it's just too dangerous. He said trade is going to become more efficient. And of course, security has a price. And that's why everyone is really focused on oil prices, because it's not just oil, it's the entire global economy at stake, because oil flows through everything. It powers not just power, but it powers airlines and cars, and everything that sort of moves does still require oil. We haven't transitioned to renewables, and we're at a point in the global economy where things are just a bit more precarious and uncertain. We just had the World bank come out cutting its outlook for global growth by almost half a percentage point from 2.8% growth, which they had thought, to 2.3% growth. If oil prices rise, that creates more inflation everywhere, and that causes central bankers to maybe think twice about cutting interest rates, which just slows down economic growth overall. And that's why just oil markets are so important for the global economy, beyond just the fact that it's a barrel of oil.

[Toby Howell]

The good news here, if there is good news, is that oil and fuel prices had been relatively cheap leading up to these strikes. A gallon of regular gasoline costs on average, $3.14 this past month, down from $3.45 the same time last year, according to AAA. So maybe this will have a big effect on oil prices, but you still have a little bit of wiggle room, at least compared to last year. On if that will directly start affecting your wallet at the gas pump.

[Neal Freyman]

And meanwhile, we just have to talk about dip buying because this has been the feature of the market this year. Every time there's tariff announcement or a spark up in the Middle east, all these retail traders come in and buy the dip. And that's exactly what we're seeing this morning. Oil prices have stopped spiking. That was on Friday. Now they seem flat as we go into the morning trading. And S&P 500 futures are up. Stocks are up across the board here in futures trading. The S&P 500 just fell 0.4% last week. Right now it's less than 3% from an all time high. So this market is extremely, extremely resilient.

[Toby Howell]

While the real economy might be shakier than Adam Scott's iron play down the stretch, the influencer economy is doing just fine. As much of the ad industry descended upon Cannes this weekend for its annual advertising festival, execs grappled with a turning point in their industry. Ad revenue from user generated content is starting to surpass that of professionally produced media, according to wpp, president of Business Intelligence. In other words, brands are shelling out more money to get Ashton hall to dunk his face in water rather than run an ad on tv. With ad budgets shrinking, content creators are seen as better value given their more personal relationships with their audiences. The influencer marketing industry is projected to hit three $33 billion in 2025, according to Statista, a 36% jump from last year. It's not just your typical fashion and beauty brands that are hiring influencers either. More and more boring consumer goods giants are tapping influencers like Unilever, whose CEO recently said he plans to hire 20 times more influencers as consumers grow suspicious of corporate branding. Neil it's not like influencer marketing is new at this point, but you're finally seeing agencies and buyers looping creators to their media plans from the beginning rather than just slap them on haphazardly as they go. So there's certainly a shift underway in the industry.

[Neal Freyman]

Kai Sanat, Amelia de Moldenberg, Keith Lee, Alex Earle. These are the new power brokers of the advertising industry. And maybe a few years ago you're right. I mean, influencer marketing has been around for a while, but it was more like you had to convince bigger brands like Unilever about why they should spend money on influencers. And now that is not even a question anymore. That is clear. It's a clear strategy that most companies are using. So it's not necessarily why we should use you for our marketing campaign. It's how and what are the best ways to deploy influencer marketing in this new paradigm. Just one of the many disruptions that the advertising industry is facing.

[Toby Howell]

They have a lot of advantages to one, they are still cheaper than quote, unquote, celebrities. They also drive a much more direct impact. I'm looking at the rise of TikTok shop and the rise of direct, you know, social commerce, which is really big over in China, but it's still kind of gaining its footing here in the US where you can have someone you know talk about your product on TikTok and immediately lead to sales. That is a very appealing thing for a lot of brands because if you run a big TV ad or you run a flashy billboard, it's hard to see the direct line of sales from that advertising moment to a buyer actually purchasing your product. When someone's talking on TikTok, you know that they just drove those sales because someone bought it live. So it is interesting to see how the IT is remaking the ad industry structurally, where people are saying, like, we want to create content that can lead to purchases very easily, and creators are the best way to do that.

[Neal Freyman]

And one wrinkle to add to that is, I mean, we're talking about human influencers here, but you have to also think about the prospect of AI influencers because those are already quite popular on certain platforms. AI influencers don't come with any particular reputation baggage or risk because that is one of the main risks of working with an influencer. What if they do something super weird and they get canceled? But AI influencers can't really get canceled. I'm sure there will be talk about how AI influencers can. It's crazy to even think about, but they're becoming a major force in the marketing industry as well. Alongside human. Alongside human content creators.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah, absolutely. Meta just said that they aim to fully automate ad creation with AI down the line. And I'm sure the next iteration of that is creating. Creating fake influencers who don't have that reputational risk that you're describing. What happens between you and your favorite AI chat bot stays between you and your favorite AI chatbot. That is, unless you downloaded Meta's new AI focused standalone app. Users of the app have in some cases been unwittingly posting their private conversations for everyone to see. When you ask Meta's AI a question, there's an option to tap a share button that brings up a preview screen before publishing your posts. But many users seem unaware that by doing so they're Sharing their conversations, audio clips and images with the entire world. That has led to a rash of embarrassing, heart wrenching and ultimately illuminating conversations revealing how people are interacting with AI. Some exchanges that became public showed people asking about medical issues, marital problems, legal advice, or even coaching a friend about coming out of the closet. The public chats reveal that people are sharing deeply personal information with the AI, highlighting both the immense amount of trust users place in the technology and the risks associated with Meta's decision to to combine social media features with an AI chat bot that people are confiding in. Neil, Some of these posts were innocuous like hey Metta, why do some farts stink more than other farts? Seriously, that I want to run it was not you but many more revealed way more intimate details and in the process some of the perils of combining social with AI.

[Neal Freyman]

Totally. And we just have to say that Metta has come out with a statement saying that look, this is not automatic. Your, your interactions with our chat bot do not get automatically posted to this feed. You have to go through a four step process that includes a pre post preview where it's like are you sure you want to share this to the feed? Still it seems like people do not think it will be shared publicly at least based on some of the type of content that you're seeing on this feed because it is extremely personal and some of it kind of opens up people to legal liabilities saying that they're in close contact with people who have committed white collar crimes and they're talking about pending court cases. But yes, so Meta saying look, this is not, you know, automatically, automatically public. But still it shows. Yeah, you're right, it just shows like what people are using these chat bots for and it's to really give them emotional support in many cases.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah, I mean Metta is a social media company. Obviously they were going to add a social layer to, to AI. But a lot of people said there is a reason why Google for instance has never tried to turn its search engine data into a social media feed. Because again, your relationship with something like Google or a chatbot is personal. You're asking it and prompting it about things very, you know, unique to your own life. So I mean AOL tried to do this anonymously back in 2006. Publish Internet's Internet users search history went so badly back then. This is basically the modern version of that where you're seeing people's just intimate details of their life. So a little bit of a privacy nightmare but also extremely illuminating to see how people are developing these close relationships with AI. They are their closest confidant in many cases.

[Neal Freyman]

I am curious about whether people listening to this, if you do prompt a chat bot about a personal topic, whether you would say I am going through this situation or whether you would say something like I have a friend who is going through this particular situation. Just kind of like push it off to another person just in case because we're seeing what's happening here.

[Toby Howell]

I mean, most likely people are developing one to one relationships with them. So I would imagine in most cases they are just saying it's me because you feel like this is your friend. It's in a very, you know, enclosed relationship. You don't expect it to get out. So yeah, just be careful that you're not accidentally sharing. A lot of them are like almost butt dials where people are just having random conversations and your phone just goes through a couple of steps. But yeah, definitely a interesting feed to look through if you want to go check that out. Up next, we are going to give you our winners of the Weekend. If you're taking your business abroad, make sure your finances are ready to go global with Wise Business. Wise Business is the account for doing business in other currencies.

[Neal Freyman]

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[Toby Howell]

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[Neal Freyman]

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[Toby Howell]

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[Neal Freyman]

More@Apple car.com let's hit our Winners of the Weekend. The segment where Toby and I picked two things that treated themselves to the biggest lox bagels you've ever seen. Sunday morning, I won the pre show planking competition. Toby started shaking 3.30seconds in. So I get to go first. And my winner is stablecoins, because at some point down the road, you might be using them to buy toilet paper on Amazon. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon, Walmart and other major companies, including airlines, are evaluating whether to issue stablecoins that bypass the traditional payment system that cost them billions of dollars each year. Stablecoins are digital assets intended to have a one to one exchange ratio with fiat currencies like the dollar and are backed by cash or Treasuries. They promise quicker and financial transactions. And for retailers in particular, they offer the holy grail, the opportunity to sidestep the payment. Rails, run by Visa and MasterCard. Every time you use a credit card at a merchant, they're on the hook for a fee known as an interchange fee. For the biggest players like Amazon and Walmart, those fees add up to billions of dollars per year and are a major drag on profits. So you can imagine why the prospect of stablecoins is so compelling. Retailers wouldn't have to pay an interchange fee and money would be dropped in their bank account quicker than it is now. Walmart launching Walmart Coin is probably still a long ways off, But Visa and MasterCard shareholders did get a little spooked over what could amount to substantial lost revenue. Both those companies stocks dropped more than 5% on Friday after this news came out.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah, in 2021, the Fed found that about $32 billion were paid in total interchange fees on prepaid and debit card transactions alone. So that just gives you a snippet on how big this interchange fee market is for Visa and MasterCard, but also how much it's costing retailers. So it would save a lot of money if it can sidestep those interchange fees, but it would also make a lot of money because if those transactions are settled in seconds, that is money that they can hold in the bank and earn interest on. So they're also losing out on billions of dollars in interest payments because of the way the system is currently set up as well for a consumer now, that's where things might take a little bit of convincing because one, a lot of people are very used to just swiping their credit card. And also you pay off your balance at the end of the month, so you don't have to know before the month starts how much you're going to Pay. It's like a very nice system where you're like, all right, I've spent this much. This is how much I have to pay. Stablecoins are basically like holding cash, which you would have to, you know, preload your credit card with how much? Or your stablecoin wallet with how much money you think you're going to spend for the month. And that is just not as good of a system as paying at the end of the month. So obviously it's great for retailers, but the consumer side of things might take a little bit of convincing, right?

[Neal Freyman]

And convincing might be incentives or like kind of what Starbucks does with its loyalty program. It says, okay, if you load up your stablecoin wallet for Walmart, you know, you'll get, etc. Like all of these deals. And that will certainly cost these companies some money. So you're right, they have to think about incentives to lure consumers to come over from credit cards, the traditional finance system. And they're also. So that's one reason why the stable Walmart coin is going to to be a long way off. And another is that these companies are waiting for the passage of stablecoin regulation. It's called the Genius Act. It's got through a few procedural hurdles in Congress. It's one of the biggest, you know, crypto regulations that has come through Congress thus far and they're waiting on that to get passed by the House and Senate. Still a big question mark. And only once that gets passed the Genius act, that's when they'll sort of pursue these stablecoin plans more aggressively. But yeah, warning, warning shots for Visa and MasterCard for sure.

[Toby Howell]

My winner of the weekend is live action remakes because despite appearing to be money grabbing retreads of beloved movies, boy, do audiences love them. The most recent remake to convert animated IP into box office gold was how to Train youn Dragon, which opened to over $80 million domestically. The fourth largest debut of the year. The Dragon franchise, as we'll call it, has turned into a smashing success over the past decade and a half. Despite the original Dragon finishing as the fifth most popular animated movie of 2010. In total, the trilogy has now pulled in over $1.6 billion globally. The latest live action installment now has the highest grossing opening of all of the films in the franchise. Despite costing less than the original to make. It's also brought in enough to knock off another remake from the top spot in the box Office as the $800 million juggernaut that is Lilo and Stitch finally dropped to second place. Neil. Live action remakes have borne a lot of criticism for feeling like soulless. High tech cash grabs. But the latest dragon movie has a 98% audience score. On Rotten Tomatoes, brings in Gerard Butler to play the chief he voices in the original and leans on Northern Ireland's rugged landscape to give this one a little bit more soul than other previous attempts.

[Neal Freyman]

And you know who is one of the main critics of live action remakes was the director of this particular movie. Dean de Blah in 2020. Called them lazy studio endeavors and a missed opportunity to put something original into the world. So he bashed them just five years ago. And then when he was contacted by Universal to do this movie, he thought about it and said, okay, well, you're going to do it anyway, so maybe I'll just do it and try to make it actually good. Seems like he did that.

[Toby Howell]

He did do that. And one of the big issues with doing a live action remake of how to Train youn Dragon is how to, you know, recreate Toothless, which is this very unique looking creature. For those of you who haven't seen the movie, it's a black dragon that is a cross between a salamander and almost a black panther that has these unnaturally large eyes. And so animators are like, we want to make it feel real. We want to have scale, texture. But they kept trying to make the eyes smaller because, like, no animal in, you know, the animal kingdom has eyes this big. But every time they try to do it, they say, we just totally lost the character. And people look at and go, that thing is hideous, what we just made. So they tried to be faithful and, you know, make sure the dragon seemed grounded in reality. But there's only so much you can do when we're talking about animated characters with giant eyes now.

[Neal Freyman]

I mean, studios are seeing a lot of success with these live action remakes. There's going to be Moana too next year. And the question is, what's coming next? What's interesting is that Universal chose how to train your dragon over something like Shrek or Despicable Me. So maybe down the pipe we might get a live action.

[Toby Howell]

Please.

[Neal Freyman]

I'm just saying it might happen because they're making a lot of money on it and that's what drives the movie industry. And then on the Disney side, they scrapped Tangled live action remake after Snow White flopped. But they also have seen more success recently after that. So we could see Frozen live action remake.

[Toby Howell]

Let's do it.

[Neal Freyman]

All right, it's Monday. So here are the big events you need to know about in the week ahead. Ever heard of Kananaskis? It's a beautiful resort in the Canadian Rockies of Alberta and home to this year's annual meeting of The Group of Seven nations, the G7. The seven major economies, plus the EU. They gather each year to discuss the world's problems and maybe take some action on it, like putting joint sanctions on Russia, as they did for the last two summits this year. With President Trump in attendance, the global economy and trade will be a focus, as well as Canadian wildfires and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

[Toby Howell]

Yet two dates that are definitely circled on the G7 calendar is July 8. That's when the upcoming Liberation Day tariffs, the pause on those are set to expire. The following day is the deadline for all us, for the US and the European Union to reach a trade agreement to avoid a potential 50% tariff on EU imports. So Trump definitely wants to come in a G7 and use it to show progress on those trade deals. But right now, the situation in the Middle east might overshadow those trade talks talks. So you might not get the news headlines that maybe Trump and other, you know, leaders of other countries were expecting another date.

[Neal Freyman]

We've been circling on the calendar is the Fed meeting this Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to once again hold interest rates steady, continuing that wait and see approach due to the fog of uncertainty hanging over the economy. That could provoke more angry responses from Trump, who recently called Powell a numbskull for not lowering rates already. However, a growing number of analysts say the Fed could start thinking about dropping rates soon, given that inflation has stayed cool and the labor market is showing signs of weakness.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah, it's like a framework for a handshake agreement they could start thinking about. It still looks like we're in wait and see mode. September is probably the earliest we will see a rate cut, but right now, a lot of the factors that the Fed wants to see heading in specific directions are heading in those directions. So potentially there is, you know, the framework for the handshake of maybe a thought of lowering interest rates.

[Neal Freyman]

And the only curveball that's happened recently is that war in the Middle east could spike oil prices, which could cause central bank could cause inflation across the economy and cause central bankers to kind of slow those rate cuts that they've been doing for the past few months. Early voting is now open in New York City's Democratic primary for mayor ahead of primary day itself on June 24th. North it's been an ultra expensive, contentious and closely watched race for the next leader of the country's biggest city with issues like affordability and public safety front and center. Leading the pack are former governor Andrew Cuomo, a moderate and Democratic socialist, Zoran Mamdani. But there are 11 candidates in total. Current Mayor Eric Adams is not joining the primary and will run as an independent in the November general election.

[Toby Howell]

Another wrinkle to this is that the primary races, including the race for mayor, will use ranked choice of voting, which is now in its second citywide run. Rcv, as it it's known as let's let's voters rank up to five candidates and then actually triggers this thing called an instant runoff process if no one gets over 50%. So in each round, the candidate with the fewest amount of votes is eliminated. Those votes are reallocated upwards to their next choice on the ballot. And so that process continues until only two candidates are left and then the candidate with the most votes. When the concept is to set up a system, allows voters to have more say over who wins beyond just choosing one or the other or just choosing one person. So that's kind of another thing to look at is RCV in this election.

[Neal Freyman]

In sports, game five of the NBA finals is tonight with the Pacers and Thunder tied at two games apiece. Ratings are lower between these two small market teams, but if you are tuning in, you're getting a treat. It's turning into a classic finals in hockey. The Panthers can close out the oilers in Game 6, scheduled for Tuesday. And finally, footy is on the telly as the FIFA Club World cup has kicked off with games held across the United States to determine the best soccer club team in the world.

[Toby Howell]

I feel bad for these players, man. Usually they get these summer months offs, but now a new another major tournament has been added to the schedule. So far it hasn't produced that many compelling matches. Again, there was only one day of competition so far, but Bayern Munich beat Auckland City From New Zealand, 10 nothing in their first match. Auckland City's goalkeeper works in a warehouse for a pharma company, so he's going up against Harry Kane. So of course there's going to be.

[Neal Freyman]

A little lopsided Olympic vibes. And On Thursday, the U.S. will celebrate its newest federal holiday, Juneteenth, which commemorates the end of slavery following the Civil War. Markets will be closed and many companies will give their employees the day off of work. And then finally on Friday is the official first day of summer, the summer solstice, and the longest day of the year in terms of daylight.

[Toby Howell]

That also means after Friday days will start to get shorter. Kind of a glass half empty approach. But there are still plenty of long days left. But still kind of sad.

[Neal Freyman]

It's sad. All right. That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for joining your morning with us and have a wonderful start to the week. If you have any thoughts on today's episode, send an email with questions, comments or feedback to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup is praying for one weekend, just one, where it doesn't rain. Devin Emery is our president and our shows are production of Morning Brewing.

[Toby Howell]

Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.