Morning Brew Daily – November 7, 2025
Episode: Musk Wins His $1 Trillion Pay Package & October Layoffs Hit 22-Yr High
Hosts: Neal Freyman (B), Toby Howell (C)
Episode Overview
This episode dives into three major business headlines of the week:
- Elon Musk's Trillion-Dollar Tesla Pay Package: Shareholders approve an unprecedented compensation deal with ambitious product and financial targets.
- Historic October Layoffs: The job market faces its highest October layoffs in 22 years, with over a million jobs cut in 2025 so far.
- Penn & ESPN’s Sports Betting Breakup: A high-profile business tie-up fails, illustrating the difficulties of media and betting partnerships.
The hosts also cover news from Snap, AI collaborations, and a roundup of “stock of the week” and “dog of the week” companies facing big swings, closing with bite-sized business headlines and a playful take on 2025’s Word of the Year.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The "Grumpy Museum Tour" Phenomenon (00:56–02:35)
- Highlight: A sold-out museum experience in Düsseldorf where patrons pay to be insulted for their lack of art knowledge.
- Insight: It works due to the intimacy of museums, perceived ignorance among visitors, and a break from traditional museum etiquette.
- Quote:
“There is a little bit of that perceived ignorance. I walk into museums and you look at something like, I don't really know what's going on there.” – Toby Howell (01:51)
2. Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Tesla Pay Package (03:25–07:37)
- Historic Vote: Tesla shareholders approve Musk’s new pay package, potentially worth up to $1 trillion in stock over ten years if aggressive performance targets are met.
- Background:
- Previous $56 billion package was overturned by a judge over board independence concerns.
- Musk warned he’d leave if not re-incentivized, leveraging his influence and vision as the core value driver behind Tesla.
- Why So Big?
- More about power than cash: Musk wants more control (increasing voting share from 13% to 25%) for ambitious projects (e.g., Optimus robot army, self-driving taxis).
- Comparison to Mark Zuckerberg’s tight Meta control.
- Skepticism:
- Studies suggest little link between excessive CEO pay and overall business performance.
- Stretch goals include 20M EVs delivered (current: 8.5M), 10M FSD subscriptions, 1M robo-taxis, and $400B EBITDA (Apple leads at $145B).
- Quote:
“If we build this robot army, which he wants to do at Tesla, do I have at least a strong influence over that robot army? … I don't feel comfortable building that robot army if I don't have at least a strong influence.” – Neal Freyman (06:40, paraphrasing Musk)
3. October Layoffs Hit 22-Year High (07:37–12:09)
- Statistics:
- 153,000 layoffs announced in October: Worst since 2003, highest Q4 since 2008.
- Over 1 million job cuts in 2025 so far (worst outside of the 2020 pandemic).
- Warehouses and tech as biggest hit sectors (Amazon, UPS, Paramount, Target included).
- AI, post-pandemic normalization, automation, tariffs, and government cuts cited as reasons.
- Seasonal Oddity:
- Companies typically avoid layoffs near holidays due to reputational risk; this year, cost-cutting urgency outweighed optics.
- Markets in a Fog:
- Federal government shutdown means no official jobs data since August, amplifying economic uncertainty.
- Quote:
“‘We’ve been in a low hire, low fire environment… That is all changing as we go into the fall. They’re calling it low hire, more fire.’” – Neal Freyman (10:07)
- Notable Reason:
- Largest layoff driver: Government cuts, namely from the Trump administration’s DOJ.
4. ESPN & Penn Abandon Sports Betting Partnership (12:22–16:30)
- The Split:
- ESPN and Penn Entertainment exit a scheduled decade-long deal after less than two years.
- ESPN Bet couldn’t rise above 7th place (~3% market share), dwarfed by FanDuel and DraftKings.
- ESPN swiftly pivots to a new, limited DraftKings partnership.
- Penn’s Struggles:
- Multiple failed high-profile bets (Barstool and ESPN deals) failed to convert audiences into gamblers, leading to investor scorn.
- Targeted a 20% market share but never exceeded 4%.
- “A series of historically awful business moves.” – Neal Freyman (13:42)
- ESPN’s Relief:
- Difficult optics in blending journalism and betting; recent scandals (Terry Rozier, Chauncey Billups) highlighted tension.
- “A little relieved” to step back from sportsbook operations and stick with content/advertising.
- DraftKings now a prominent partner, bringing higher returns and fewer conflicts of interest.
5. Stocks of the Week & "20% Club" Dogs (17:24–23:59)
Stock of the Week: Snapchat (17:24–18:48)
- Deal:
- Snap gains 10% after striking a $400M (cash + equity) deal with AI startup Perplexity.
- Perplexity gains access to 400M+ Snap users via embedded AI answering in chats (rollout in 2026).
- Perplexity faces lawsuits for copyright (NY Post, Dow Jones, Reddit).
- Quote:
“Perplexity is going to pay Snap $400 million in cash and equity for prominent real estate in the app, something investors see as boosting user growth…” – Neal Freyman (17:24)
Dogs of the Week: The “20% Club” (18:48–23:59)
- Duolingo (-25%): Shift in focus from profits to user growth spooks investors despite 41% revenue growth.
- Celsius (-26%): Distribution changes lead to short-term panic, despite robust energy drink demand and Pepsi’s 11% stake.
- Elf Beauty (-34%): Tariff-related headwinds and tepid guidance; acquisition of Hailey Bieber’s “Rhode” may bolster long term.
- Insight: Each is sacrificing short-term stability for (potential) long-term gain, but investors are rattled by uncertainty.
6. Final Headlines (24:09–28:37)
- Travel disruptions: Government shutdown forces FAA to cut air traffic. Up to 1800 flights impacted at major US airports; longer shutdown worsens.
- Words of the Year:
- Collins Dictionary: “Vibe coding” — using AI with natural language prompts to code (28:00).
- Shortlist includes “clinker” (AI derogatory slang), “biohacking,” “aura farming" (building personal charisma), etc.
- Hosts jokingly debate what word truly defined 2025.
- “The words of the year always are driven by people under 25. People over 35 have absolutely no say…” – Neal Freyman (28:09)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On Musk’s Motivations:
“It's not about the money, it's about power and control. Like we've seen him go into DC earlier this year. It's about exerting his influence on the highest echelons of society.” – Neal (06:40)
- On Layoff Trends:
“For months we’ve been in what economists have called a low hire, low fire environment... That is all changing as we go into fall.” – Neal (10:07)
- On ESPN Bet’s failure:
“On the surface, these kinds of tie ups make sense. ESPN and Barstool have large audiences... but in reality, the marriages never quite drove enough customer acquisitions to justify the financial outlays.” – Toby (13:42)
- On Snap & Perplexity:
“Perplexity is the logical name that you land on. … For Perplexity you get access to a 400 million person user base. … good wins for both companies it seems. On the surface, we'll see how it actually … plays out in reality…” – Toby (18:48)
- On the “20% Club”:
“The 20% club is more like a sticky frat basement actually, aka not a place you want to find yourself.” – Toby (18:48)
- Word of the Year banter:
“My pick is slop.” – Neal (28:37)
Timestamps for Major Segments
- Grumpy Museum Tour – 00:56–02:35
- Musk’s Trillion-Dollar Pay Package – 03:25–07:37
- October Layoffs & Job Market Analysis – 07:37–12:09
- ESPN & Penn Sports Betting Breakup – 12:22–16:30
- Stock/Dog of the Week – 17:24–23:59
- Final Headlines (Travel, Word of the Year) – 24:09–28:37
Tone and Style
The hosts maintain a witty, informative, conversational tone with pop-culture flair—mixing deep insight and sharp data with light, accessible commentary.
For New Listeners
This episode is a robust, fast-paced rundown of the latest business news, tuned for listeners who want early market context, thoughtful analysis of industry shakeouts (like Tesla’s governance and Penn’s sports betting missteps), and some smart laughs about the quirks of 2025’s economic and cultural landscape.