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Nation’s Busiest Commuter Train Shuts Down & Where Do Spirit Planes Go to Die?
00:27:49
Nation’s Busiest Commuter Train Shuts Down & Where Do Spirit Planes Go to Die?
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Marketers tell us if this sounds familiar. You invest in something that seems incredible, like millions of views, but then don't see any revenue. Instead, invest in what looks good to your CFO. LinkedIn Ads generates the highest roas of all major ad networks. Spend $250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a $250 credit. Just go to LinkedIn.com mbd that's LinkedIn.com. mBD terms and conditions apply.
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Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
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And I'm Toby Howell.
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Today, what can get you booed as a graduation speaker? Talking about AI then Long island railroad
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workers are officially on strike. It's Monday, May 18th.
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B
Let's ride. Good morning and welcome back to the week. The casting call for James Bond is officially open. Late last week, Amazon MGM Studios said the search for the next James Bond has gotten underway and and they'll share more news with 007 fans when the time is right. In 2021, Daniel Craig wrapped up his five film run as the British spy with no time to die. And now the search is on to find a new Bond ahead of the upcoming film the 26 in the franchise directed by dunes Denis Villeneuve. Toby, you're seeing the board. Well right now, who do you think gets this part?
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A
Well, I immediately just went to prediction markets and right now Callum Turner is in the lead at 38%. He has to win because maybe we get Dua Lipa, his fiance as a love interest. Jacob Elordi is 18%. I watched Wuthering Heights this weekend. He's too tall. He's too tall to be James Bond. I just can't see him running and jumping across buildings and trains. Tom Holland at 5%. He's too short to be James Bond. So we need someone right there in the middle.
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See him jumping and running.
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A
Good. I say we give it to Aaron Rye who is English and just won the PGA Championship on over the weekend. That's my pick for the next James Bond.
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And now a word from our sponsor, LinkedIn Ads. Toby, have you ever invested in something that seemed incredible at first but didn't live up to the hype?
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Yeah, it turns out magic beans don't do anything. And now I'm down one perfectly good cow.
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A
The nation's busiest commuter rail system shut down over the weekend for the first time since 1994, disrupting commutes for hundreds of thousands of daily riders, leaving once busy transit hubs looking like a ghost town. The Long island Railroad shuttles 275,000 daily riders every weekday from hubs in Manhattan to JFK Airport, the Hamptons, and everywhere in between. But the unions, who represent the LIR workforce, walked off the job starting Saturday at midnight after months of negotiations broke down with the mta. The union is looking for pay raises and increase health care contributions after going roughly three years without a contract, saying raises are needed to keep up with soaring costs of living. The MTA says the union's demands would blow up the agency's budget, force fare hikes, and potentially lead to job cuts. With the train shut down, the agency is planning on using shuttle buses to ferry people around, which is set to cost the MTA roughly $550,000 per day. Riders are caught in the middle of the spat, with many staring down expensive Uber rides or trying to piece together subway and bus routes to make their daily commutes. Governor Kathy Hochul and the MTA are encouraging commuters to work from home if possible. Neil, this is actually the second PASSENG rail strike to hit New York City area in the last year as NJ Transit workers also walked out last spring. That one lasted three days. Even if this strike wraps up in a similar timeframe, it comes during peak tourist season ahead of Memorial Day, disrupting travel during one of the busiest periods and also really hurts our chances of getting out to Shinnecock before the US Open.
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B
First of all, this is a disaster this morning. You know, they, they walked off the job on Saturday at midnight, so there was no LR service over the weekend, which was tough for Mets and Yankees fans. They were playing each other. There's all types of graduations happening here in New York City. There's also a Bruce Springsteen concert. But anyway, this is going to be so much worse. This morning when 275,000 people tried to get to their workplaces, a bunch of companies said, work from home. Kathy Hochul, the governor says, we encourage you to work from home. But what about the essential workers? What about people who have to go to retail jobs that start at 7am and 8am they have this bus system, but it's only going to account for just a fraction of the total ridership. They're busing people to subway stations in Queens and Brooklyn, but they can only take 13,000 riders in the morning and another 13,000 in the evening. So imagine if you just have to get to a place of work at 8:00am you know, you're going to probably have to leave sometime around 4 or 5 right now to take a bus to the subway that'll inch you along to work. So this is gets really bad on Monday morning when there's commuting going on to work.
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A
So the workers, the LR workforce is saying that, hey, inflation has eaten into our paychecks over the last few years. We need a raise to keep up with just the soaring cost of living. But a lot of people on the MTA side is like, hey, guys, you are extremely well paid already. The MTA says the average li r salary is about $136,000. 168 of hourly workers got paid more than Governor Kathy Hochul's $250,000 a year salary. 25 made over $300,000. So that is why, along with frustrated commuters, a lot of people are saying, LIR workers, you are the highest paid, you know, transportation workforce in the world. Why do you need another raise? Whereas they turn around and say, hey, everything's gotten more expensive. That's why we need this little bump.
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B
Yeah. Here are the specific numbers. They're seeking a retroactive 9% percent, 9% wage increase for the past three years when they didn't get a raise. And they're also looking for a 5% raise in the current year. The MTA has countered with a raise of nearly 4.5% this year. But they apparently that 0.5% is, is a big enough gap where they're going on strike. And my. Why, why doesn't Congress step in? Right. This is a huge issue. We have 300,000 people not being able to get to work. Shouldn't Congress or lawmakers say, you know, we can't, we have to go to mediation. We have to figure this out. Because we can't just have rail workers going on strike when people need to get to work. Well, Congress could intervene, but it probably won't. Remember you talked about the NJ Transit strike last, last year that Congress said, no, you guys figure it out. We're not dealing with this. And it seems like the only time that Congress does step in or the president steps in and says, look, this is, this is too critical for the economy. A freight rail strike happens because that's, you know, that may have national economic implications. While this is mostly regional, while the New York City is the, you know, the richest, the most economically robust region in the country doesn't rise to the level where lawmakers step in. So when there were, when there was a rail strike impending in 2022, Congress did step in and say this can't happen. But when it comes to commuter rail, apparently they're just like you guys figured out.
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A
How are talks going? There is a marathon day of negotiations that fell from Sunday into Monday night that failed to actually end the strike. But the two sides said that talks were going well enough that negotiators agreed to come back into their work early Monday morning. So maybe we'll see some progress on this as we come into Monday and Tuesday.
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Now there are a few winners from the, from the rail strike. One is Blade, which is that helicopter commuting Service. They're offering $95 one way helicopter rides between Long island and, and Manhattan. Usually that's for the bougiest people, but if I'm looking at taking an Uber from, you know, mid Mid island to Manhattan, I'm seeing blade offering $95 one way helicopter rides. That is not particularly bad. It's probably cheaper than an Uber is this morning. And the other winner is probably New York City's congestion pricing program because remember, they're charging $9 during peak hours for drivers to come into the city. Well, think about how many more drivers are going to come into the city as long as this strike goes on. So New York City's coffers may get a little more full. You know, when you're enjoying a sunny summer beach day and you take a peek at the horizon, see dark clouds gathering in the distance and think, oh crap, it's going to storm. That's what's happening in global markets right now. And those dark clouds are government bonds. On Friday, bonds across the world sold off in historic fashion, signaling an arriving thunderclap coming for markets. When investors dump bonds, yields soar. And they're absolutely mooning right now. In the US the 30 year treasury yield spiked to 5.1%, its highest level since 2007. And the 10 year note jumped to its highest point since February 2025. This phenomenon is rippling through all high income economies like Japan, where the 30 year yield reached 4% for the first time since it was introduced in 1999. Meanwhile, in the UK 30 year bond yields have notched a 28 year high. So what's causing the sell off? In a word, inflation. Investors are concerned that with little progress to open the Strait of Hormuz, higher oil prices will remain a problem for some time, forcing central banks to jack up interest rates to keep inflation from spiraling out of control. It's no coincidence that the bond tantrum escalated on Friday when President Trump ended his trip to China without forward momentum on ending the war in Iran. Bond prices may feel like a niche corner of finance, but they're incredibly powerful. When yields shoot higher, they raise borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. It's a huge drag on the economy, like trying to drive a car with the E brake on, not to mention a bad sign for stocks. So it feels like whenever the bond market makes headlines, it's not good news.
- [09:49]
A
No, I'm not going to lie. I thought we're going to talk about the market for who's the next James Bond? So I did not care to talk. I had, I had even more to say about Callum Turner, though. So you said that inflation expectations are the reason why, you know, the bond market is blowing up. But why does that happen? A bond pays you fixed interest over time, you know, it's 4%, 5%. But if inflation eats away at the purchasing power of those future payments, then the bond becomes less value. Also, if you expect governments to raise, you know, the baseline interest rates, you expect bonds to pay more over time as well. To compensate, buyers want more yield, which means they'll only buy the bonds at a lower price because as you said, bond yields and prices move inversely. So existing bondholders are kind of watching this unfold. If they see Neil is getting a bond that pays, you know, 5%, I have one that pays 4 and a half percent. They rush to sell before the price starts to drop even further, which accelerates the cycle, so on and so forth. So whenever you see that inflation expectations are making the bond market royal, that's basically the base case for why it's happening.
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And I want to stress how powerful the bond market is because we don't really pay attention to it until it vomits like it is now. But many of policy moves are influenced by the bond market because that's just the force that governs everything. So remember what caused President Trump to roll back Liberation Day tariffs? It was because of the bond market. The similar thing that happened now and then. Remember when Liz Trussed, the UK Prime Minister, unveiled this budget that would increase government spending? Well, we had these bond Vigilantes, which are these investors that essentially protest government, fiscal or policy decisions by saying we're going to sell off a ton of bonds, raise your borrowing costs, increase the cost of what it takes for you to borrow money. So you basically can't get your policy across the finish line. So this is their huge protest that causes huge policy changes. And Liz Truss did not make it past a lettuce in terms of her tenure as Prime Minister. So the longer this, this bond tantrum happens and yield climb higher, they're saying that the 30 year yield, if that stays above 5%, that really causes Congress to take some sort of action, really drives outcomes in the highest level of government because this is just a disaster. Raises, raises borrowing cost for consumers and especially businesses. I mean, how much are these companies borrowing to build data centers? And this data center buildout is underpinning the entire economy right now. If you're Microsoft or Meta and you have to borrow at 5, 6, 7% to build your data center, then maybe it doesn't become financially feasible.
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A
What is make it pass a lettuce mean?
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B
Remember when they had Liz Truss was the UK Prime Minister a few years ago and they said who is going to survive longer this, this head of iceberg lettuce or Liz Truss? And they just had this iceberg lettuce on YouTube decaying over time and rotting and she did not take it past the lettuce. She got booted from office before then.
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A
There you go, everyone. There's a new thing to add into your lexicon. Didn't even make it past a lettuce.
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B
All right, welcome to Winners of the Weekend. The segment where Toby and I picked two things that executed a flawless park day. I won the pre show game of horse, so I get to go first. And my winner is the repo men of aviation. Because when an airline abruptly shuts down, it's their time to shine. Steve Giordano and Bob Allen are the two guys who run Nomadic Aviation Group, a company that ferries planes all over the world. Or as the Wall Street Journal put it, they're the doordash for jets. It's an obscure corner of aviation whose business only booms when things go haywire. And that they did earlier this month when Spirit Airlines suddenly liquidated, stranding not only passengers, but those bright yellow planes at airports across the country. In the hours after the liquidation announcement, Stephen Bob's phones lit up with aircraft leasing companies wanting their Spirit planes returned. And these dudes are among the few who can actually make that happen. They sprung into action to Execute one of the most logistically complex repo operations you can imagine. Stephen Bob created a WhatsApp group of 40 pilots, many of them who had been working for Spirit, who could step in to fly these empty planes. One unprepared fellow replied, can I fly in shorts? No issue there, considering Steve told the Journal, we're guys that fly around in jeans and T shirts, which in itself looks bizarre. Rallying pilots to repatriate the planes is just one aspect of the process, which also includes finding mechanics to inspect the planes and filling out mountains of paperwork to comply with airport regulations. The repo operation has been a success so far, with about two dozen empty Spirit jets flown to the Arizona desert, where they await their next assignment.
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A
This is a part of the airline industry that you never think about, but underpins a lot of, know, the planes that you see in the air and on the ground today, they literally function as smaller airlines with none of the resources. You know, they don't have all the accompanying, like, you know, routing information. So it is just going through WhatsApp group chats a lot of the time, say, hey, can you come here and fly? This business model also works very well in good times and in bad times, because when things are bad, they're extremely busy. When companies are going out of business, there's a lot of planes that need to be moved around. When things are going very well right now, they are also extremely busy because they planes need to be in different airports. They need people to shuttle them back and forth. There's also just a weird kind of Twilight Zone aspect to doing this job, because a lot of the planes that they picked up from Spirit still had fully loaded galley carts. They still had Biscoff cookies, you know, sitting in the back of the plane. The WI fi still worked, but you had to pay for the WI fi on some of these planes. And it's just completely eerie that there's no passengers back there. It's just you in jeans and a T shirt. Sometimes flying a plane, it's like commuting in your car by yourself, but it's a massive jet.
- [15:16]
B
Now, these guys are kind of celebrities in the aviation world because they run a very popular channel on YouTube called Cockpit Casual, where they document a lot of things about their business, which is extremely niche, faring airplanes across the world. Like, they got a call saying, hey, I need you to bring this plane from China to Wales. And so 24 hours later, Steve is on a plane to China to pick up this plane to bring it to Wales. With all these stops in Egypt along the way. So if you are curious about how this operation works and it is fascinating, head to their YouTube channel, Cockpit Casual because there is a 47 minute video just on this spirit repatriation which is really fascinating. Another question I had is why are they moving it to the Arizona desert? Why do all these planes get moved there to these boneyards? And we saw this in Covid as well. Remember there are pictures of planes outside Tucson, outside Phoenix, of all these planes that just weren't being used. And the thing is they store them in the desert. Desert because there's no moisture. Moisture is bad for planes. So when you're just having them park there, it's best to have them in the desert where you know, they can stay relatively safe.
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A
It's the same reason that people, humans move to Arizona. You know, good weather, not a lot of moisture. Yeah, it's a dry heat. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with my winner of the weekend right after this. Neal, let me tell you something about bond markets.
- [16:31]
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I'm all ears. They are confusing, insightful as ever. But yes, capturing value in fixed income is not easy. Thankfully, Vanguard bonds are institutional quality. That means top grade products across the board.
- [16:42]
A
Vanguard is able to invest across all kinds of sectors, maturities and geographies. Which means they can spot and act on opportunities that others might miss.
- [16:50]
B
So check out vanguard.com/audio. That's vanguard.com/audio. All investing is subject to risk. Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributed here. Toby, what if I told you you had to pay me $1,000 right now?
- [17:02]
A
I'd be in deep trouble.
- [17:04]
B
Well, you would be in the same boat as a lot of employees in the US and that can lead to decreased productivity and distractions. Thankfully, Aflac can help.
- [17:11]
A
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- [17:23]
B
To learn more, just head to aflac.com/morning brew daily. That's a flash.com Morning Brew Daily.
- [17:30]
A
Neil, I'm ready to make an announcement.
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B
Toby, we all know it's okay that you're afraid of horses.
- [17:36]
A
No, and I am not afraid. I just don't trust them. I'm announcing my personal endorsement for Spectrum Business. I've seen firsthand how they keep businesses of all sizes connected seamlessly with fast, reliable Internet, advanced wi, fi, phone, tv and mobile services, all backed by 100 US based support.
- [17:52]
B
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- [18:01]
A
So whether your business is big or small, visit spectrum.com business to learn more that spectrum.com/business restrictions apply. Services not available in all areas My winner of the weekend is Grad Speakers who Opted for Authenticity over AI it's graduation season for a lot of schools, so if you're donning the cap and gown, first of all, congrats. Second of all, how have your commencement speakers been so far? It seems like speeches have fallen into two camps. One has praised AI and received boos in response, while others have emphasized humanity and basked in cheers. One person who threaded the needle to perfection was Eric Church, whose UNC commencement speech is being heralded as the best of the season. Instead of hyping up technology, he talked about craftsmanship and human connection through the metaphor of guitar strings and clips that have since gone viral. One person who did not take the right tact was Gloria Caulfield, a real estate exec who called the next industrial revolution. That understandably did not go over well with the students of University of Central Florida's College of Arts and Humanities. Google co founder Eric Schmidt made the same mistake, getting booed for speaking about AI in a way University of Arizona students didn't like. Zooming out. These speeches and the reactions encapsulate a lot of young grads views on a technology that mostly inspires anxiety instead of hope when it comes to their jobs and futures. Neil who knew that the dude who wrote Drink in My Hand was going to be the voice this moment of rapid technological chain needed most?
- [19:33]
B
Let's dive into some of these speeches and why they might not have landed before maybe talking about Eric Church and why his was so good. I've been an Eric Church fan for a while, to be clear. So Eric Schmidt, who's the former CEO of Google, when in front of University of Arizona graduates and acknowledged that, quote, there is a fear in your generation that the future has already been written, that the machines are coming, that the jobs are evaporating, the climate is breaking, the politics are fractured, that you're inheriting a mess that you did not create. So he's acknowledging these fears. He called them rational, but said, look, you got to adapt to this technology. You got to be involved in shaping how this technology will be rippling through society. Said, quote, the question is not whether I will shape the world, it will. The question is whether you will have shaped artificial intelligence. And perhaps his didn't land because people he talks about all of These things about the machines are coming, the jobs are evaporating. Well, he was the former CEO of Google. You know, he was perhaps the person that set in motion these chain of events that are causing them so much anxiety. So I'm not exactly sure what he could have said because him and self as a messenger was already. He was already an uphill climb.
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A
It is funny too that kids are kind of sort of in on this meta theme that is spreading across these speeches, because I was just scrolling on Instagram and Carnegie Mellon students whose, you know, commencement speaker was Jensen Huang, who's CEO of nvid, they were placing bets on how many times he would mention AI. So they're literally like, how many times you think he's going to say AI? And everyone's like 4,047 times. So they know going in that this is going to be a talking point. And then I want to go back to University of Central Florida in Gloria Caulfield. She was getting booed and cheered in like equal measure based off of whatever she was saying in that moment about AI. And at one point she stopped and says what. What happened to the crowd because she didn't understand why she was getting booed and cheered. But literally, depending on how you are framing AI, that is how the crowd is reacting to you right now. So speakers, if you are, you know, listening to this, you got to figure out how to get the crowd on your side. It's not by saying AI is going to take all of your jobs.
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B
Here's one tack. Delta Airlines CEO Ed Bastian was addressing Emory University. And this is what he said. He said in composing these remarks, out of curiosity, I asked, asked AI to prepare the address. I was amazed at how quick and easy was generated. But then he also said he noticed the lack of soul nor warmth that it conveyed. It was not my personal voice. It was not a genuine appreciation of the opportunity to impart my insights to thousands of you. You want to hear from me, not some algorithm of me. So perhaps this is a little performative because he didn't necessarily need to say this, but he took a sideswipe at AI by saying it, wrote a speech for me, but actually it's sucked. And now I'm addressing you as a human.
- [22:15]
A
I think that was really smart, honestly, because you address the elephant in the room. You know, he got his cheer. So again, that is what I'm saying, you know, play to the crowd in front of you. Right now, the crowd is reacting very negatively to.
- [22:26]
B
And back to Eric Church. I think people should watch this I mean, he did a really beautiful metaphor of how the six strings of the guitar reflected different aspects of your life. And I'll. I'll just mention one of them was the B string. He said stands for community. And he said your Generation faces the 10 temptation no generation before has faced. Temptation to perform for anyone, belong to no one, to be globally visible and locally invisible. So he urged people to plant yourself somewhere, put down roots with the full intention of growing there. Learn the actual names, not usernames, of the people around you. Volunteer, coach a team, build the thing your community needs, even if the Internet will never see it. So that's really the antithesis to AI and that's why he's your winner of the weekend.
- [23:04]
A
Thank you, Eric Church.
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B
It's Monday, so here's what you need to know to stay ahead in the week. Ahead, happy Nvidia earnings week. The world's most valuable company will report on Wednesday, coming off a cheeky little run with shares climbing 14% in the past two weeks. As always, what Nvidia says about AI demand will set the tone for the entire stock market. But it won't be the only highlight. Big retailers like Walmart and Home Depot will also drop their earnings for a crucial look at consumer spending amid surging gas prices.
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A
I was looking at it. It's pretty crazy that Nvidia's revenue is still growing. At the clip that it is, analysts project its first quarter revenue come in at $78 billion, up about 80% year over year. I did not know Nvidia was still growing at an 80% clip for Walmart. Same sort of story, actually. Last quarter, its E Commerce business grew 27%. That was the eighth consecutive quarter with growth of over 20%. So we'll look to see if that can continue.
- [23:57]
B
This marks the final week of Stephen Colbert's the Late show after it was controversially canceled by CBS last year. Colbert is bringing out the big guns on his way out. Confirmed guests include Jon Stewart and Steven Spielberg, as well as musicians like David Byrne and Bruce Springsteen. But we don't know who will make an appearance on his last show on Thursday.
- [24:14]
A
Do you have any ideas? No.
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B
I mean, Obama maybe?
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A
I've heard the Pope being floated as well. So I don't know who it could possibly be that you know to sign it off. But if you have any ideas, maybe write in and tell us.
- [24:25]
B
Yeah, got to be like the former president or the Pope. The Pope would be a huge poll. That would be crazy. Okay. In sports, the NBA's conference finals are set With a ticket to the actual finals on the line, the Knicks are playing the Cavaliers in the east while OKC takes on Wemby and the spurs in the West. And in the tennis world, the French Open starts today on the red clay of Roland Garros. Maybe there's an opening for someone else to win a men's major besides Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik center because Alcaraz is not playing in the tournament due to an injury. One of those two guys has won the last nine majors dating back to 2024.
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A
All right, for the French Open, I'm taking Wembanyama to win the French Open. And then I think Sinner joins the Knicks and they beat the Cavs and go to the final.
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B
Tall is Sinner.
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A
He's not as tall as Victor Wembanyama, but he is very tall for the world of tennis.
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B
He's six' three, six' three. He could play one guard.
- [25:13]
A
You can play point guard.
- [25:14]
B
All right, finally, can Baby Yoda save Star Wars? The Mandalorian and Grogu, based off the Mandalorian series on Disney plus will hit theaters on Friday as the first Star wars film in seven years and the first to be adapted from a streaming series. The latest Star wars movies haven't exactly lit up the box office. And there's concern that oversaturation from Star Wars TV shows. There have been 10 on Disney plus have diluted the once invincible franchise. It's a galaxy sized test for Disney coming Memorial Day weekend.
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A
All right, if we're in the trust tree right now, I don't know the difference between Grogu and Baby Yoda. Is it the same thing?
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B
I'm not the person to ask. Maybe Baby Yoda is part of the species of Grogu, right? Can you tell me?
- [25:53]
A
I know someone needs to chime it. We easily could have looked this up before the show, but I figured I just think it out on purpose. It used to be everyone called him Baby Yoda. Now he's being referred to as Grogu. I do think that Grogu is of the same species as Yoda, but is not Yoda.
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B
Okay, so Grogu is his name.
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A
Grogu.
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B
Grogu is not the species. See, I get we figured out just by talking.
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A
Confused though.
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B
Either way, will people see this movie?
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A
I don't know. Like I'm so far removed from the Star wars universe at this point that maybe a lot of people feel the same way. I haven't come up. I haven't stayed up to date on the 10 plus TV shows, but a lot of people have maybe so I'm a little confused as to where this fits into the whole storyline, but I don't know.
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B
I have watched one of those 10 TV shows and it's and or and that was the best Star wars that was the best Star wars series and perhaps piece of content of Star wars since the first three films. So good. That is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful start to the week. If you'd like to send us a note, shoot an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom or DM us on Instagram. Instagram at me Daily show let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our supervising producer. Raymond Lu is our senior producer. Our producer is Olivia Graham and our associate producer is Olivia Lake. Technical direction by Nina Miller. Hair and makeup is counting down the days till the long weekend. Devin Emery is our president and our shows are production of Morning Brew.
- [27:09]
A
Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.
- [27:20]
B
Your next chapter in healthcare starts at Carrington College's School of Nursing in Portland. Join us for our open house on Tuesday, January 13th from 4 to 7pm you'll tour our campus, see live demos,
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