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Neal’s Numbers of 2024: Warren Buffet T-Bills, Digital Cameras, and More
00:28:50
Neal shares his favorite numbers from 2024
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- [00:01]
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This episode is brought to you by Google Gemini. With the Gemini app, you can talk live and have a real time conversation with an AI assistant. It's great for all kinds of things like if you want to practice for an upcoming interview, ask for advice on things to do in a new city, or brainstorm creative ideas. And by the way, this script was actually read by Gemini. Download the Gemini app for iOS and Android today. Must be 18 to use Gemini Live.
- [00:26]
Neal Freyman
Good morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
- [00:29]
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
- [00:30]
Neal Freyman
Today 5 44% 3 septillion oh my gosh.
- [00:36]
Toby Howell
It's a special Neil's Numbers episode. It's Friday, December 27th. Let's ride.
- [00:47]
Neal Freyman
Good morning and Happy Friday. Even though the days of the week feel a little made up during this stretch from Christmas to New Year's, we're back with another special episode, one that is near and dear to my heart because it's the best of Neil's Numbers. Each Thursday I bring you three of the most fascinating stats from the week's news, hopefully making you the most interesting person at your dinner party. In the process for this episode, our team pored over every number I discussed from 2024 and picked a bunch that stood out either for representing a bigger theme from the year or just because they were so wacky. Toby, are you ready? By the way, your commentary is a big reason why Neil's numbers is so popular.
- [01:26]
Toby Howell
Oh, you're flatter me too much, Neil. This is my favorite segment every week, not only because I learned a lot, but also you do most of the talking. So let's dive right.
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Neal Freyman
All right, I guess I will start talking then. One of my numbers from back in January was that we were entering the biggest election year In 2024, 76 countries with more than half the world's population, over 4 billion people voted in elections, including 8 of the 10 most populous countries in the world. What did we learn now that all those votes have been counted? What? One pattern that was clearly evident is that voters were fed up with inflation. The incumbents in every single one of 10 major countries with elections this year were handed losses by voters, including the Democrats in the us, Britain's Tories, Emmanuel's Emmanuel, Macron's coalition in France, and Japan's Liberal Democrats. It was the first time this has happened in 120 years of record keeping.
- [02:23]
Toby Howell
Yeah, I mean among democracies that held elections this year, 8, 80% saw their incumbent party lose some places. It was long time incumbents too. In Senegal, it's now president became the first opposition candidate to win a presidential election since the country became independent in 1960. So it really was a year of people saying we want change, we want something different. And you saw that in just the sheer amount of elections that were held, in the sheer amount of incumbents that did end up losing.
- [02:50]
Neal Freyman
And maybe a 1B number that I want to add over the US presidential election was the sheer amount of outside spending from corporations, individuals. That was a major theme in the election that happened in November. With two weeks to go before Election Day, outside groups poured in $1.1 billion into the presidential race, which was surpassing, which surpassed the record set in 2020.
- [03:15]
Toby Howell
And I remember you would talk about some Senate races just in specific states outspent even the entire election spending of countries like France or Canada or something like that. So it truly is a unique phenomenon to the US Just how much we spend on elections.
- [03:31]
Neal Freyman
Okay, moving on to a number from the summer. Berkshire Hathaway owns more treasury bills than the Federal Reserve, which is a sign of how Warren Buffett has been stockpiling cash and sparking debate over why he seems wary of the stock market. At the end of June, Berkshire owned $234 billion in treasury bills, compared to the Fed's 195 billion treasury war chest. Buffett's T bow pile is more than several countries, including Brazil, Mexico and Germany. And his overall cash pile of $325 billion would allow him to easily buy all but 25 of the most valuable public U.S. companies, including Goldman Sachs, Disney, Pfizer and AT&T. @ the same time, Buffett spent the year selling off holdings of his two most treasured investments, Apple and Bank of America. Toby what does Buffett see that we don't?
- [04:22]
Toby Howell
It's always a little scary because Buffett, he's called the Oracle of Omaha for a reason. So he's sitting on a record cash positions as the market is sitting at record high. So something's got to give here. How about this? I'll out Neil number you. I could never do that. But here's a number for you. Berkshire Hathaway's cash alone now exceeds Berkshire Hathaway's total market value just 10 years ago. So it is literally holding more cash now than what it was worth just a decade ago. So truly one of the biggest cash piles, I was thinking. Neal and so we are recording this before the end of the year, before maybe there's been more developments in this story, but one company that Berkshire Hathaway could buy is TikTok. Because remember, one thing that we keep saying is there's not enough suitors out there who could afford TikTok. Berkshire Hathaway could buy TikTok. Again, not Warren Buffett's typical business. But I was just thinking, like, wait a second, he could. This is one company that he maybe would see value in.
- [05:17]
Neal Freyman
This is one company that could afford TikTok. And there aren't that many. I like that idea, Toby. It would sit nicely in the portfolio next to the railroads, insurance companies and Fruit of the Loom. I could see that happening. I'm sure Buffett would have a lot of expertise to give to the tech. TikTok CEO. Okay. Sports gambling was in the headlines a ton this year. It's only grown since it was basically legalized by the Supreme Court in 2018. But the findings of two studies over the summer revealed some of its negative consequences for Americans personal finances. One study showed how Americans were taking money out of their stock accounts to fund their online betting. It found that for every dollar spent on sports gambling, net investments in stocks and other financial assets dropped by a little over $2. And then in another study, the average credit score in a state was found to have fallen 0.3% after the state legalized sports gambling. And that triples to 1% if the state allowed online sports betting. Toby, sports gambling has become a massive industry here. Should we expect more of a reckoning now that we've data on its harmful effects?
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Toby Howell
Yeah, because it's not just data about the amount of money you lose by putting them into your account. Losing it is the opportunity cost of what that money could have been doing in the stock market. So it's even bigger than you probably imagine. We also read some of these horror stories this year where professional gamblers, people who do this for a living, figured out that if they tried to reverse engineer the behavior of gambling addicts, they would get fed better boosts, better deals from the gambling site. So they would do stuff like check their phones in the middle of the night, log on to the app at 2am and those behaviors signify to those, the sports gambling websites that, hey, this is someone who probably has an addiction to this. Let's feed them a deal. And they were doing that just so they would get a better edge on things. So there really was a little bit of this was the year where sports gambling really was widespread, rolled out to a lot of different states. And now we are seeing just the second order and third order effects of it.
- [07:16]
Neal Freyman
Yeah, it'll be curious to see whether in the next administration or Congress, there will be some regulatory crackdown on sports gambling because it really is the Wild West. But you're going to see more studies like this come out and lawmakers might be, you know, like DraftKings and FanDuel. You know, maybe you shouldn't be able to do those, you know, predatory marketing practices that you just talked about, Toby. So we'll see what happens with that. But yeah, I just have a few more numbers about the size of sports gambling now. In the United States, Americans were on track for, for 24 to wager $150 billion on sports. That's up from just $7 billion in 2018 when the Supreme Court legalized or paved the way for legal sports gambling. And earlier this year, Flutter, which is the company that owns Fanduel, overtook the biggest physical casino, Las Vegas Sands, in market cap. So you're starting to see a changing of the guard there. Let's turn to the always fascinating automobile industry for this next number. In September, Norway became the first country in the world with more electric vehicles on its roads than gas powered cars. The country is the world leader in EV adoption, thanks to government incentives such as allowing EV drivers to use bus lanes and exempting EVs from certain taxes. For other countries. Though the EV transition has been rocky. This year in the U.S. j.D. Power lowered its projections for EV sales from 12% of new cars to 9%. President elect Trump is expected to blunt growth even more by pulling a 70$500 EV tax credit when he comes into office. Over in Europe, growth is slowing for countries not named Norway. European EV sales rose just 0.8% in October from the year earlier. So the question remains, is Norway a sign of things to come for everyone else or just an extreme outlier?
- [09:02]
Toby Howell
If any country was going to do this, it was going to be Norway. Because you're right, there are these generative generous government incentives, but also it's one of the wealthiest countries in the world. So they can, the residents there can offset some of that upfront cost of buying an electric vehicle. It is funny too though, because a lot of the incentives that the government does offer for electric vehicle buyers, they are funded in large part by the money the country makes by selling its oil and gas reserves to other countries. So they hope to end all diesel and gas vehicle sales by next year. Again, if one country is going to do it, it is Norway. But I would say that they are a bit of an outlier and not indicative of, or maybe not not indicative, but definitely one of the people Higher up or the countries higher up the adoption curve on, oh, yeah, they're by far y.
- [09:50]
Neal Freyman
They're by far and away the highest adoption for EVs. The question is, how long will it take the rest of the world to catch them? Two years ago, it seemed like EV adoption would be super fast. I mean, rates were going at 40% here in the United States, even faster in China. But due to a variety of factors like the high costs of cars and the lack of stations here in the United States, growth has almost slowed to a trickle. They're just going to grow less than 10% in the single digits here in the United States. Adoption is much faster. Investor in China, they're growing at 50%. And the question I think this will be something that we talk about a lot on the podcast next year is what are we going to do about the Chinese EVs that are quote unquote, invading Europe and the United States? The United States has put a tariff of 100% on them. Europe has also placed some tariffs, but, you know, Western carmakers just can't compete with these Chinese EV companies. Okay, this next number stems from possibly the best article I read this year, which was Katie Weaver writing in the New York Times about why we should abolish the penny. There were some astonishing stats about how many pennies exist. In a conservative estimate, 240 billion pennies are lying around the United States, about 724 per person. It's enough pennies to hand out two to every human who has ever been born. The US cent is the most produced coin in the history of civilization, making Lincoln's portrait on it the most reproduced piece of art in the world. In the piece, Weaver argues that the penny has no purpose anymore, and all it's doing is taking up space and money. Consider it costs 3 cents for the mint to produce a 1 cent coin. Toby, you on board with abolishing the penny?
- [11:32]
Toby Howell
Yeah, this was something that I wrote about all the way back in high school. People have been talking about abolishing the penny for a long time. The sheer amount of pennies out there is staggering. Since the US first began issuing the penny in 1793, they produce half a trillion of them, which is more than the number of stars in the entire Milky Way galaxy. So one of the parts of this article which was fantastic, as you mentioned, is that if some of the pennies that were to be lying around were to be found and cashed in at banks, it would just overwhelm all the storage we have in the entire United States. So it is completely impractical to try to, you know, return these pennies to circulation. It is almost better that they are laying under our couches, in between our seat cushions, stuff like that. There were so many just oxymorons that come with being a penny. The fact that it costs more to make a penny than it does to actually spend a penny never made sense. So I don't know if we will see any movement on this front. Because you do need an act of Congress to banish the penny. Do you think we will see no, any, any movement on this front?
- [12:34]
Neal Freyman
What I understand there's been a lot of fits and starts to try to abolish the penny, but there's just always something more important going on that you can't get lawmakers to say, like, okay, let's actually vote on abolishing the penny. And then you, then you mentioned all of the logistics that require, you know, going into that. Canada abolished the penny a few years ago, but they kept the concept of the scent. So you have, you know, competing things going on here. And I don't know if Americans will be amenable to that change. Maybe we should just take all of the pennies, melt them down into a, you know, copper liquid, and then create a statue in front of the Fed as a testament to capitalism. There you go.
- [13:14]
Toby Howell
Track them down and you get on that. Up next, more numbers coming your way.
- [13:22]
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- [13:51]
Toby Howell
Let's check in on future you. What action are you taking today to set up your finances and well being for success?
- [13:59]
Neal Freyman
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- [14:08]
Toby Howell
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- [14:12]
Neal Freyman
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- [14:38]
Toby Howell
Neal, as always, thank you for those numbers. Sometimes throughout the year, though, when there are a few extra numbers to go around, you can't choose just three. I get to jump in with some Toby's tally, and I'm going to do that on today's episode as well. The first tally I picked up this year was $2047, which is the price per square foot on the most expensive street in the world, Milan's Via Monte Napoleoni. Now, this was a fun story. Milan's luxury fashion scene propelled Via Monte Napoleoni into the top spot, surpassing New York's Fifth Avenue. But that is not why I picked it. I picked it because we got a few emails and texts from people who said that this number in particular helped them win some of their trivia competitions. Now, I don't know if one of the writers of bar trivia around the country heard this Neil's numbers and got inspired or if it was just a coincidence, but still, this one will hold a special place in the Neil's number pantheon for being helpful enough to win trivia for a few people.
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Neal Freyman
Neal, that is all I'm going for.
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Toby Howell
That it really is all you're going.
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Neal Freyman
For in the fact you win trivia with Neil's numbers. I also think you chose this Toby so you could say Via Monte Napoleoni.
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Toby Howell
It does roll off the tongue pretty well. And remember, do you remember some of the reasons why?
- [15:49]
Neal Freyman
Well, yes, the reason why this. Yeah, reason why this street is the most expensive. Yes, there are luxury goods companies going in there, but it's also just tiny. So it's a matter of supply and demand. Fifth Avenue is much longer. And these Bond street in London, all these other ones are just bigger. So they can't charge as many rents to be on the actual street itself. If you extended the street in Milan or, you know, took in another street to normalize the length with Fifth Avenue, then I'm not sure Milan would would still win. But I've been there. It's super fancy.
- [16:21]
Toby Howell
It is super fancy. But all that matters is somebody won some bar tab in some far off bar in the United States because of this Neil's number. Okay. The second tally I remember from the year is that digital camera sales grew in 2023 for the first time in the 13 years. And the reason I picked this one is because it feels like a lot like a Toby's trend, honestly, after shrinking every year since 2010 due to its powerful smartphone Cameras replacing single purpose cameras. There has been an uptick in interest in these vintage shooters of late. Part of the rise is also because sales absolutely hit rock bottom. There are 1.2 million last year compared to 10.4 million in 2010. But also people are nostalgic. They want that vibe that only digital cameras can impart to photos rather than relying on their smartphone. So I like this one because it speaks to the broader trends that we've touched on in Toby's trends this year as well.
- [17:14]
Neal Freyman
Yeah, and I think people probably are nodding their heads when they're listening to this because maybe you've been to a party or a gathering of young people and somebody without a digital camera and you're like, what is that? So I mean, that's happened to me a few times. So I've actually saw this Neil's number come to life in reality, which was kind of cool. It also speaks, I think, to some. We could probably could have done a Neil's number on any sort of vintage product like records or, or, you know, vinyl, things like that, that have. Have gained a second life in 2024.
- [17:44]
Toby Howell
Yeah. Some of the other stories that come to mind are Hot Wheels being the most popular selling toy in the world, partly driven by these nostalgic collectors. Also, vintage shopping, that was a Toby's trend as well, is just so hot right now. Nostalgia is very much in the one aspect that we haven't discussed too is that travel made a big comeback post the pandemic. And so that led to another increase in camera sales as well. But yeah, that was a quasi Toby's trend slash Neil's number right there.
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Neal Freyman
I see what you did there.
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Toby Howell
Yeah, I know. Okay, my final tally is just a banger. And that is everyone in Japan will be called Sato by 2531 unless some changes are made to marriage laws in the country. So in Japan, married couples are not permitted to use separate surnames. So that means Sato, which already tops the list of most popular last names in the country, will see its share exponentially increase throughout the years until in 500 years times, everyone in Japan will be named Sato. Now this study was also published on April 1st of this year. So people at first thought it was a joke, but it was real. And the author said it was to drive awareness of this outdated marriage rule.
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Neal Freyman
All my first thought is this is going to be a nightmare for sports announcers. I mean, we're doing the game. Sato passes the Sato passes the Sato. Sato shoots. And I'm not, if I'm listening on the Radio, I don't know what's going on. So I go out my, you know, my thoughts are with all the sports announcers that have to deal with all the Satos.
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Toby Howell
When I think of Neil's numbers, this is the one that comes to mind though, just because it's so out there, you would never think about it, you would never come across it unless you unearth it. So that is just in my top three of Neal's numbers of all time. Okay, Neil, to close out the show, I have a quiz for you to see just how well you know your own numbers. This quiz picks out some themes that emerged over your year of numerology. Let's see if you can recognize your own tendencies. All right, so question one is, you did 11 numbers related to America this year. Stuff like why does America suddenly have a record number of Bs, why Americans stopped moving and Americans saying they needed a one and a half million dollars to comfortably retire. But what do you think was the second most popular country you talked about this year in your Neil's numbers?
- [19:57]
Neal Freyman
Who? Well, he just did one on Japan, so that's top of mind. You know, we talked a lot about Germany this year. We talked a lot about Argentina. I'm going to go with Argentina. No, I'm not. You're shaking your head. I. That's not my final answer. Oh, God, I don't know. I will say Japan.
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Toby Howell
Japan. Yeah, it was in a two way tie with Russia. Actually there was the number that we just discussed about everyone being Club Sato. But also there's a number about how Japanese diaper makers are shifting their production from babies to adults given the increasing amount of elderly people in the country. On the Russian front, some stories included how Russia is spending so much on their war with Ukraine that is actually boosting the economy now, which was not the case when they first started. And of course there is the 2 una decillion ruble fine that a Russian court handed down to Google for restricting state media channels. That is a 2 followed by 36 zeros, which is more than the entire world's GDP of $110 trillion. That also probably is up there as the highest number on the Neil's number pantheon.
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Neal Freyman
I think it might be.
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Toby Howell
Yeah. Two una decade, una decillion. All right, do you know what your most popular animal you talked about this year? You low key do a lot of animal themed Neil's numbers. Do you know what your most popular animal was?
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Neal Freyman
Let's just go base rates here. Dogs.
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Toby Howell
It was. No, it was not dog. Well, that's actually think about what are some of the most popular animals in the world.
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Neal Freyman
I mean the one I think humans most talk about is the dog.
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Toby Howell
Yeah, that's true. I thought you're going to say humans.
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Neal Freyman
I think birds.
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Toby Howell
You're thinking to chimps, land based whales. You talked about fish and whales the most. I kind of lumped them into the same category. You did two stories on fish and whales. One was about the school of code that were estimated to have eaten around 10 million anchovy like fish in just four hours. And what was the largest mass predation event ever recorded? That was a fun one. And then the other marine themed story you did was about a really down bad whale who recorded the longest migration in history, over 8,000 miles across three oceans in search of a mate. And then the final aqua themed one was about cocaine sharks. Do you remember this one?
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Neal Freyman
No.
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Toby Howell
I know, I couldn't believe it going back through either. There was a study of 13 sharks off the coast of Rio de Janeiro and they all were found to have cocaine in their liver and muscles. The level of cocaine in these sharks were reported to be as much as 100 times higher than any other previously observed in marine life. Do you remember why they had cocaine in their system?
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Neal Freyman
I think this happens when, you know, smugglers dump cocaine off their boats.
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Toby Howell
Yeah, but just the headline of cocaine sharks. Yeah. So you do love a nice marine theme.
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Neal Freyman
Well, I think the ocean is so vast and mysterious to us that it certainly lends itself to eye popping stats like a humpback whale, you know, sojourning 8,000 miles for sex or the largest predation event ever ever recorded. You know that thing. You know those things just don't really happen on land. Unless it's the insect kingdom that you just don't get that sheer quantity. So the ocean is, is a remarkable thing.
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Toby Howell
It's a. It lends itself to Neal's numbers. Do you know who the most talked about person in Neil's numbers were this year?
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Neal Freyman
I'll say. Well, Warren Buffett was definitely one. I don't know if I talked about or Jerome Powell or Warren Buffett. One of those.
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Toby Howell
You're thinking in the wrong realm. It's not a business related realm. It is entertainment. And it was Taylor Swift.
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Neal Freyman
Oh no. So predictable.
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Toby Howell
She edged out Caitlin Clark. Actually Caitlin Clark appeared multiple times as well. Some of the Taylor Swift numbers were she drove more luxury travelers to Paris than even the Olympics. Five times as many US travelers to be exact. Also the tortured poets department broke the record for weekly vinyl Sales, which is another thing we've talked about. She sold 700,000 in just a weekend. And then there was also this one I had totally forgot about. There was this Monmouth poll that found nearly one in five U.S. residents believe Taylor Swift was conspiring with Joe Biden to steal the election. So that was 20% of the electorate thought that Taylor Swift was part of this grand conspiracy theory. So can't escape.
- [24:11]
Neal Freyman
She is inescapable. I guess my goal is to have fewer Taylor Swift stats next year. I don't have a goal. It's whatever happens, you know, whatever is the most interesting.
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Toby Howell
You let the numbers come to you. All right, the last part of this quiz. Do you know what the most popular fruit you talked about this year was?
- [24:26]
Neal Freyman
Tomato, apple.
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Toby Howell
It was the humble banana. And the two stories were one, the duct tape banana that sold for how much?
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Neal Freyman
$6 million.
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Toby Howell
Over $6 million at the Sotheby's election or auction. It was this avant garde art piece that was supposed to be commentary on art itself. And then finally the other one was Trader Joe's hiked the price of their bananas for the first time in decades. Do you remember what they hiked it from? And to.
- [24:55]
Neal Freyman
Let's go 19 cents to 23 cents.
- [24:58]
Toby Howell
That is completely right. They hiked it 4 cents, which is actually a 20% increase for the first time since early 2000. That got a lot of people up in arms because, you know, Trader Joe's is supposed to represent, you know, bargain brand prices. And seeing the banana price jump up even 4 cents was enough to get people a little mad.
- [25:15]
Neal Freyman
Well, I didn't mention in Neil's numbers was Costco because they're their soda hot dog combo stayed at A$50 cents. So Costco, if you want to stay out of Neil's numbers, you keep that 150.
- [25:27]
Toby Howell
I was going through the food ones you did, and I was like, did he do any other hot dogs? One, because I think we did talk about that $1 and 50 dog, but no bananas was the most mentioned fruit in Neal's numbers this year. All right, finally, to close out the show, I think the only proper way to cap off a Neil's Numbers episode is to do a Neil's numbers of Neil's numbers. Basically, I just sat down and calculated how much information you shared with us this year. You did a Neil's numbers segment. 50 out of 52 weeks this year, the only weeks you missed were one Thanksgiving. We were off. And then there is one week in October where Kyle and I did Kyle's calculations. And I did Toby's tallies.
- [26:07]
Neal Freyman
And since batting.960, you're batting really high.
- [26:10]
Toby Howell
Good. Good number right there. Since you've given us three numbers per segment for 50 weeks, that's 50 times three. That is 150 different numbers this year. That is a lot of numbers. Also, I just went a little deeper too. If each one of your intros ended up being about 250 words, that means you have written 37,500 words just dedicated to Neil's numbers alone. And I did Google it. The average young adult novel is about 50,000 words, Neal. So you've written a young adult novella of sorts, all dedicated to your numbers.
- [26:43]
Neal Freyman
I need a vacation.
- [26:44]
Toby Howell
There you go. And on that note, honestly, let's wrap this thing up.
- [26:48]
Neal Freyman
Let's wrap it up. Thank you so much for spending your morning with us, Toby. Thank you for calculating the Neil's numbers of Neil's numbers and giving me that quiz. We hope you all have a great Friday and we'll see you back here on Monday. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Bukom. Especially if a Neil's numbers over the course of the year helped you win. Trivia. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. And I got one more number. 30. Because Emily's birthday is today and she's turning the big three. Zero.
- [27:20]
Toby Howell
Happy birthday.
- [27:21]
Neal Freyman
Raymond Lu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Uchenawa Og is our technical director. Billy Menino is on audio. Hair and makeup's brain is swirling with numbers. Devin Emery is our chief content officer. And our show is a production of Morning Brew.
- [27:36]
Toby Howell
Great show, Danielle. I wish you all well. Wait, wait, wait. Before you go, Neal has one more thing to tell you.
- [27:49]
Neal Freyman
It's time to come clean. Hosting Morning Brew daily isn't my only job.
- [27:54]
Toby Howell
Wait, are you Batman?
- [27:55]
Neal Freyman
No. When I'm not here sitting next to Toby. I'm also the executive editor of Morning Brews free daily newsletter. If you love the pod, you'll love the newsletter. Not only does it give you your daily dose of news, but it also has crosswords and trivia and jokes written by people way funnier than me and Toby.
- [28:11]
Toby Howell
I hate to admit it, but it's true. I read it every day and I think you all will love adding it to your routine as well.
- [28:17]
Neal Freyman
Subscribe now at Morning Broadcom or head to the link in the show notes.