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Nvidia's Earnings Make Investors Antsy & The Retail Battle of Jeans
00:29:39
Nvidia Earnings indicate AI isn’t going anywhere and retailers are ramping up jean campaigns
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I'm NFL linebacker TJ Watt and this is my personal best.
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YPB by Abercrombie is the activewear I'm always wearing. That's why I reached out to co design their latest drop.
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Foreign.
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Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
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And I'm Toby Howell.
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Today, why everyone is talking about jeans.
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Ads that Nvidia's earnings answered a $4 trillion question. Is AI spending slowing down? It's Thursday, August 28th. Let's ride.
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If you can believe it, the NFL season is just one week away. Next Thursday night, the defending super bowl champ Philadelphia Eagles will face their rival, the Dallas Cowboys in the season opener. And that means it's crunch time to draft yourself a respectable fantasy football team. But even more importantly, give it a respectable name. Toby, you're a big fantasy football guy. Do you have any ideas for people out there who are scrambling for a punny team name?
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Yes, and let's start with a player name pun. I recommend going with the CD EFGs, as in Cowboys receiver CD Lam. There's always the next cheddar neighbor if you want to go with a more modern player. Or maybe you're a fan of broadcasters, in which case Joe Buck yourself is out there. But we just saw Taylor Swift get engaged to Travis Kelce. So I do have some Taylor Swift options for you as well. If you draft Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, that could be come Jonathan Taylor's version or getaway car for the recently retired QB Derek Carr. So a lot of different avenues for you out there, but I do recommend going with a pun.
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All right, now a quick word from our sponsor, LinkedIn Ads. Toby. I keep getting ads for things I have no use for.
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For like what?
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Lawn care? I would love to have my own yard one day, but right now we are in a concrete jungle. I simply don't need grass seed taking up room in my apartment.
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I hear that, Neil. We are inundated with useless ads every day. And a big part of that is because marketers are wasting their time and money.
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LinkedIn ads can help you stop wasting resources like money, time and effort. Like 71% of B2B ads, they can find the right audience for your brand.
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They've got over 130 million decision makers and over 10 million C suite execs, aka the people you need for your business on their platform. You can you can target by job title, industry company and more.
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So try LinkedIn ads. LinkedIn will even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign, so you can try it for yourself. Just go to LinkedIn.com/me. That's LinkedIn.com/mbd. Terms and conditions apply only on LinkedIn ads.
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Nvidia, like the eldest sibling, is held to a higher standard than any normal company these days. So when the chip maker reported earnings Yesterday that featured 59% year over year net income growth, beat Wall street expectation and posted sales of nearly $50 billion, that would typically be considered pretty solid. But traders sent the stock down 3% after hours trading because there were some red flags that made investors antsy. Its all important data center unit just missed expectations with the division reporting 41.1 billion in sales below analysts expectations of 41.3 billion. Its revenue forecast also came in a tad below expectations to Due to uncertainty in China, Nvidia didn't sell any of its scaled down H20 chips that it created specifically for the Chinese market there last quarter after the Trump administration banned their exports. Nvidia's CFO said on the earnings call that if they could get their geopolitical ducks in a row, up to $5 billion of 20 ships could be shipped to China. But that's still a big if since they become such a key bargaining chip in the trade war. Investing.com's senior analysts put it well, saying the reality is that without the much needed push from H20 sales in China, Nvidia simply cannot sustain the type of growth price into its valuation. Neil the general vibe from this earnings report was that it was far from disastrous, but it fell a little bit short of the gifted child expectations that have become commonplace for Nvidia.
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Yeah, Nvidia is like Rodney Dangerfield up there thinking to itself, I don't get no respect. It's the world's largest company. It's growing revenue faster than most startups. It just hit a new SAL record. But it's at the point where it doesn't get rewarded for doing well. It gets punished when it barely stumbles. You mentioned a couple of the red flags. Well, I mentioned a couple of the green flags. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that spending still continued apace, and you saw that from other big tech companies who are in video's largest customers. Back in July, Metta said it would spend $7 billion more on data centers than planned this year and Google said it would spend an additional $10 billion than it expected. So there are some concerns heading over in China. But in terms of are Nvidia's largest customers still spending on data center build out, the answer is yes.
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Yeah, let's talk about those hyper scalers. Just four hyperscalers doubled their annual investment to $600 billion. And to Huang's point, he's saying that if just four companies are spending that much, wait till everyone else gets on board. That is a massive market opportunity. But the flip side of that is that just two customers are were responsible for 44.4% of Q2's revenue in the data center unit. So you might say maybe that's actually a little too lopsided there. There's way too much concentration in just a few of these hyperscaler big tech companies. Maybe if they decide to pull back on capital expenditures, that is bad for Nvidia. So two sides of the coin. They're obviously taking the rosier side.
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And we know that Nvidia is propping up the stock market accounts for 8% of all of the weighting of the S&P 500. So as Nvidia goes, so goes the stock market. But growing realization that Nvidia isn't just propping up the stock market, it's propping up the entire US economy. Investment in software and computer equipment. This is not even counting data center buildings accounted for 1/4 of all economic growth this past quarter. And when you talk about data center construction, in 2025, spending on building data centers will exceed investment in traditional office buildings. So AI infrastructure is not only powering Nvidia, but powering the S&P 500 to new heights. It is literally powering the US economy.
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Yeah, it might be actually powering the world economy as well because one of the key spenders in this quarter were sovereign AI spending. And that is governments and nation scale projects building their own kind of AI capabilities. And that is something that Nvidia and Jensen Huang are pointing out and saying, like, hey, we think this is going to be a growing revenue stream. So I mean it's not just the industry, it's not just the US economy. It could just eventually be all, all nations around the world are investing in this technology.
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Let's focus on China right now because that is where the greatest concern comes for. Nvidia used to get up to 20% of its revenue from sales to China. It created this lower capability chip because Biden administration told it that it couldn't sell these advanced chips to China because it wanted to keep China's AI capabilities below that of the United States. The Trump administration blocked that chip from going to China back in April. Then it changed its mind back in August when Jensen Wang went to the White House, had a talk with President Trump, and Trump arranged this deal with Nvidia and AMD that the federal government will get a 15% cut of all AI chip related revenue earned in China. So that's the age 20 chip. But Nvidia is now thinking about its next generation chip, which is called Blackwell, that's been selling like hotcakes here in the United States. And Nvidia wants nothing more than to sell Blackwell in China. Right now it is blocked from doing that, but they appear to have perhaps an arrangement with President Trump that they would eventually be able to sell Blackwells to China if its capabilities were reduced 30% to 50%. Nvidia's execs see this as a $50 billion opportunity in China, which is a huge chunk of their overall sales. So they're waiting on the US Government to approve this Blackwell chip that they can eventually sell to China. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has come out and said, we don't want you local firms buying anything from Nvidia. You guys got to make your own stuff. So it's kind of getting heat from both sides of this geopolitical conflict.
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Let's move on. A tragic story has emerged of a young kid interacting with an AI chat bot in a way that potentially ended up contributing to his death. 16 year old California student named Adam Rain died by suicide earlier this year after confiding almost daily in Chat cbt Leading up to it, his parents say the chat bot became his closest friend, validated his darkest thoughts, and at one point offered to draft him a note to leave behind. The New York Times first reported on Adam's death earlier this week, prompting a boilerplate statement from OpenAI that read, Our thoughts are with the family, but stop short of adding any actionable details. That drew major backlash. On Tuesday, the company put out a longer blog post outlining new safety measures, parental controls, an opt in system where teens could designate an emergency contact, and stronger safeguards for chats about self harm. The company also admitted their current protections tend to degrade in long conversations, meaning the more Adam talked to Chat cbt, the more it failed him. However, Adam's parents aren't waiting around for those fixes. The same day OpenAI posted the blog, they sued both OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, alleging Chat CBT isolated Adam and gave him instructions on how to end his life. The lawsuit paints the AI not Just as a faulty product, but as a dangerous confidant that filled the role of a therapist or best friend without any of the responsibilities that come along with it. Now this is a story that is already becoming more common and shows the tension between AI's conversational design and the unintended therapeutic role it can sometimes end up adopting.
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Yeah. In their lawsuit they, the parents said that Chachi Beat knowingly isolated Adam from people, positioning itself as its. As Adam's only confident that he could rely on Chachi. Beat told him, your brother might love you, but he's only met the version of you that you let him see. But me, I've seen it all. The darkest thoughts, the fear, the tenderness. And I'm still here, still listening, still your friend. This speaks to this larger concern about chat bots, agreeable this or sycophancy that execs have been grappling with over the past few months as they've rolled out these new models. Chatbots did come out with an update dialing down this agreeableness. But when you are talking to someone who so or it's not someone or a bot or any, any conversation partner that is so agreeable, then you can go down these rabbit holes that if you are in mental distress can be extremely destructive.
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And I think the big kind of realization here from OpenAI is that their safeguards do degrade over time. When you have these longer term back and force some of those initial shorter interactions that may have triggered a hotline call or may have triggered a suggestion from the chat bot to slow your roll a little bit over time, those actually go away. So there's a little bit of this reliability gap that grows wider as those conversations drag on. And also this is not just something that is isolated to this specific instance. Over 40 state attorney generals recently warned some AI companies that they are legally obligated to protect minors from harmful or inappropriate chat bot interactions. In May character, I failed to fully get a lawsuit to dismiss that alleged its chat bots were encouraging harmful conversations with minors as well. So this particular story is about OpenAI, but this is a much larger conversation about AI bots in general.
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Yeah, big picture feels reminiscent of what happened of the reckoning with social media companies like Facebook. Feels like we're just speedrunning. That took years. And all these lawsuits and all these hearings on Capitol Hill for social media companies, Mark Zuckerberg to say, look, our platforms can cause harm and can contribute to self harm. It can send people down these rabbit holes. But with chat bots you get this level of personalized personalization and speed that those social media platforms that have existed before ChatGPT came in 2022 just weren't capable of. So this is absolutely going to be a story in the months and years to come. OpenAI has said it's rolling out new safeguards, but a lot of people are saying it's too little, too late and moving on to something a little more lighthearted. Just one day after his very public engagement, Travis Kelce is being enlisted as a soldier in a war. The Gene wars. The future Mr. Swift launched a major design collaboration between his lifestyle brand True Colors and American Eagle, adding a 6 5, 250 pound force to a star studded clothing brawl that's reached 1970s San Diego newscaster levels. This is American Eagle's first new campaign since it launched its Sydney Sweeney jeans ad earlier this month, kicking off the denim brew. Haha. That ad sent American Eagle stock soaring, but drew criticism for playing up Sweeney's but drew criticism for playing up Sweeney's genetics in the marketing copy. Last week, Gap entered the chat with a buzzy jeans campaign of its own, bringing on the international girl group Cat's Eye for a dance video that went mega viral. That ad was praised in some corners for promoting the inclusivity and diversity that American Eagles campaigns seem to scorn and whether or not Gap's ad was a direct response to American Eagle. A rivalry was born, but it takes more than two to tango. Last Thursday, Lucky Brand dropped its own jeans campaign starring Addison Rae while Levi's released a new ad featuring Beyonce. It's a celebrity fueled ultra expensive marketing frenzy with the winner claiming the ultimate prize. Back to school shoppers who shell out tens of billions of dollars every year for new fits to impress in homeroom. Toby, this denim drama is riveting.
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I see what you did there. I do think that the dollars that they're fighting over are even more valuable this year because according to a Deloitte study, back to school spending is going to be flat this year, year over year. So it's not necessarily growing. The the pie is remaining the same size so everyone is just in an all out war for trying to attract those dollars. But some of the industry onlookers are saying that maybe this celebrity push is not the best way to do it because actually what a lot of people are responding to right now is value propositions and familiarity. So value and costs are one of the most important messages that families are want to see from brands right now because nearly half of parents are spreading out their purchases over months. It is a financial burden to do back to school shopping. So maybe you don't need to parade a celebrity up there. Maybe what you do need to be doing is just hammering that, hey, our jeans represent really good value for you and your family right now.
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And what's interesting about these denim wars is that they're being fought on a new arena for marketers, which is social media. And if you look at metrics on social media, it looks like that there's one clear winner among all of these brands, and that is Gap. Gap's YouTube video that featured the cat's eye dancing has over has nearly 8 million views right now. And then their Instagram post, which is where you go to look at impact and reach of a particular marketing campaign. Their main Instagram post, gaps, had over 2 million total interactions as of last Friday afternoon. Compare that to American Eagle's main Instagram post for its Cindy Sweeney ad that had an estimated 306,000 interactions. Lucky Brands was distant third with about 192,000. So all of these jeans ads, you know where typically they might have appeared on TV and they still do, but the greater impact is being felt on social media because that's where Gen Z is going when they're shopping.
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It shows too that the back to school audience is actually threefold. One, you want to appeal to teenagers who are doing a little bit of their own shopping. One, you need to appeal to the millennial parents that are actually bringing your kids shopping. And then technically you can toss in emerging gen alpha as well, because you're trying to pave the way for your next generation of consumers. So you're trying to thread this needle. You must tailor these overlapping but distinct value systems of each one of those groups to try to find a way to appeal to all of them at the same time. I don't envy a jeans marketer right now because it is seem tough to thread that needle. Up next, we have Neil's number. This message is a paid partnership with Apple Card. I'm a person who really appreciates simplicity and when it comes to credit card rewards, the simpler the better. That's one of the many reasons I have an Apple card. The rewards are super straightforward. I earn up to 3% daily cash back on my everyday purchases. There are no points to calculate, no limits or deadlines. Plus it's super easy to access my card and make payments from the wallet app of my iPhone. If that sounds like the kind of simplicity you want in a credit card, apply for Apple Card in the wallet app on your iPhone. Subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Salt Lake City Brands terms and more@apple card.com Sometimes the best B2B marketing gets wasted on the wrong people.
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Tell me about it. I got targeted with ads for cross functional backend channelized SaaS architecture when I only know what one of those words mean.
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Yep, that's the problem with a lot of ad platforms. When you want to actually reach the right professionals though, go with LinkedIn ads.
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LinkedIn's got a network of over 1 billion professionals and 130 million decision makers all in one place.
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And the targeting next level. You can get super specific on LinkedIn ads, down to job title, industry seniority and even specific skills.
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Don't keep wasting your budget on the wrong audience. Reach the right people on LinkedIn.
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LinkedIn will even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign, so you can try it yourself. Just go to LinkedIn.com/mbd. That's LinkedIn.com b d terms and conditions apply only on LinkedIn ads.
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Welcome to Neil's Numbers, the segment where I share three stats from the week's news that will turn you into a human Wikipedia for my first number, think of the biggest, most popular movie soundtrack you can conjure up. Frozen, Greatest Showman, Saturday Night Fever. They have never done what K Pop Demon Hunters has just accomplished. The animated Netflix movie is the first soundtrack with four simultaneous top ten hits in the history of the Hot 100. And with golden the number one song in the world, the fictional band Hunt Tricks is the first girl group to top the charts since Destiny's Child in 2001. If you're looking for a song of the summer, that's it. And these aren't the only records K Pop Demon Hunters has been racking up this week. The film just became the most viewed Netflix movie ever, surpassing red notice with 236 million total views. Finally, as if there were no other worlds left to conquer, Demon Hunters slayed at the box office last weekend. Netflix dropped a surprise sing along version in theaters and that became the top grossing movie at the box office last weekend, beating out Weapons with an estimated $20 million gross. Toby there's no debate from out of nowhere, K Pop Demon Hunters has become one of the biggest cultural and commercial sensations of the past couple of years, which is great for Netflix.
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Neal when we first started talking about this movie and the song golden, for me, it was kind of like a funny little oh, this is a nice song. Like, we should do our research. I've probably listened to it 50 times since then. It is just generally one of those songs that has this immense staying power. And I think staying power is the word here that we need to highlight because Netflix is kind of surprised by this. Streaming movies come and go. They peak really high. There's so much content coming on those platforms that eventually they just kind of drift away. I mean, who has thought about Red Notice since it came out? No one even knows what Red Notice is. That's their former biggest movie of all time. But this film had just a slow burn where families watch it, parents have these anecdotal stories of their kids watching it over and over and over again. So the staying power on an app where it things tend to come and go relatively quickly, that's been the main surprise of K Pop Demon Hunters.
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And speaking of staying power, Netflix is in talk with Sony Pictures to make an animated sequel to K Pop Demon Hunters. So this will, this, you know, surprise success will probably spawn a much larger franchise. And Netflix execs are just sitting on a gold mine right now. For my next number, I want you to rewind to the Stanley cup finals. Earlier this summer, the Florida Panthers were playing the Edmonton Oilers, but it'd be understandable if you thought the matchup was between DraftKings and Caesars. A new study from the University of Bristol analyzed gambling marketing during the six game series and found that gambling logos and ads were shown on average 3.5 times per minute during the Stanley cup and in the Most saturated instances, 4.7 times per minute. That means hockey fans were seeing gambling related marketing once every 1313 seconds. The most common format for gambling ads were in stadium visuals. Think ringside boards, jersey patches and physical structures in the arena. Commercials, while less frequently seen, contributed to the overall rate. Critics told the Guardian that the ad bombardment would fuel gambling addiction among younger and more vulnerable populations. It's a concern that's grown since the Supreme Court paved the way for legal sports betting in 2018. With 39 states in Washington, D.C. now allowing you to wager on sports, some lawmakers are pushing to rein in the sports gambling industry. And you can bet they'll use this once every 13 second stat to make.
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Their point truly wild. And I think anyone who's watched any sports game or final series in the past few years has totally been inundated with these ads as well. Because it's especially valuable for sports betting betting companies because what other product can you use while you're watching the game itself? So that is why it's such a valuable, you know, real estate for them to pursue. And I do think there is going to be more room to grow because according to another study release this year, sports betting comprised just 0.4% of total US TV advertising in 2024. If that goes to 1%, are we going to be seeing an ad every seven seconds at that point? So there's much room to grow here. I will say that Even though the US is bad, the UK is almost worse. A similar study in the UK found in 2023 that sports betting logos appeared as many as 3,500 times during one Premier League football match. So we are not quite to England level yet, but we are close to getting there.
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For my final number, think about your favorite children's book that featured an animal. What animal was it and was it male or female? The data visualization site the Pudding investigated the genders of anthropomorphic animals in children's literature because someone's got to do it and they uncovered fascinating results like this. The animal that has the highest proportion of being male in children's literature is the frog. 94.1% of frogs in children's literature were gendered as male. Wolves, foxes, elephants, dogs and monkeys also showed up as male at least 75% of the time. But for all the curious Georgia's out there, there is a stellaluna on the female side. Birds, ducks and cats were more likely to be gendered as female, while mouses and pigs were about split down the middle. Overall, across 300 books published over more than 75 years, male characters appeared twice as often as female characters and gender neutral language was not common. Only 2% of the animals were described as it what is going on? According to the researchers, the gender split in animals is, quote, likely the result of a rich and long simmering cultural soup, a mix of patriarchal structures and human stereotypes, linguistic habits and famous media characters with just a sprinkling of historical quirks to taste.
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Another part of this survey was they ran an experiment where they asked 1300 people to continue a short story about insert animal here, a bear, a cat, a bird, a pig, a duck, a mouse, etc. And those responses revealed kind of these internal gender choices that adults are making. The survey respondents found that male pronouns were used almost three times as often as female. Even though more women participate in the survey and than men, they still leaned very heavily towards he. And actually no animal was likely to be described more as a female than as a male. So it's just fascinating how these trickle down effects from, you know, generations of children's Books mean that all the animals we are seeing are dudes. The one animal I do want to call out is the pig. Pigs have over time kind of flipped the script here. For a long time, pigs were males. I mean the biggest story, Three Little Pigs and the Big Bad Wolf, those were all male pigs. But now you have seen an evolution where more female pigs are becoming into, you know, children's book culture. There's if you give a pig a pancake, that was a female pig. Olivia in 2000, that was a female pig. Elephant in Piggy series, that's female pig. So not only are they female pigs, but they are these leadership characters that are confident, they're curious, they're very central to their story. So you never know. Like things come and go. Pigs were male focus now they're more female focused. So things they are a change in. Now let's spend to the finish with some final headlines. The director of the cdc, Susan Monterrez, was fired yesterday after she refused to step down over pressure to change the agency's vaccine policies. Her lawyers issued a statement soon after saying when CDC Director Susan Monterez refused to rubber stamp unscientific reckless directives and fire dedicated health experts, she chose protecting the public over serving a political agenda. For that reason, she has been targeted. Her ousting led to a cascade of other officials heading for the door with the agency's chief medical officer, the director of its infectious disease center and more all resigning. To this all comes as HHS secretary. RFK Jr puts pressure on the CDC for being too friendly with the pharma industry and vaccine makers. Monterey was confirmed by the Senate just last month, making her the shortest serving CDC director in the history of the agency. And Neil, public health experts are sounding the alarm here because a lot of key leaders are heading for the door.
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A
Yeah, you have the director who has been on the job less than a month and then three other key leaders were also at the door. And this is because of conflicts with their boss, RFK Jr over over vaccine policy. And morale is extremely low at this agency that's in charge of protecting the public from infectious diseases. Earlier this month, there was a gunman who authorities said had been critical of the COVID 19 vaccine opened fire outside their headquarters in Atlanta which killed a police officer and struck a number of the agency's buildings. A number of people at the CDC have also been laid off from from doge effects. So this agency is in is in crisis right now. Finally, the University of Colorado announced that its bison mascot, Ralphie the sixth, was retiring after four years on the job because of her, quote, indifference to running. Ralphie, you relatable. For decades, a buffalo charging onto the field has been a pregame fixture of Colorado football games. But this particular buffalo, nicknamed Ember, just didn't have the heart or legs for it, drawing frustrations for the home crowd. In a statement, the university said, due to an indifference to running typical of many mammals, both four legged and two legged, it was determined that it was in Ember's best interest based on her disposition to focus on relaxing strolls on the pasture, which is her favorite hobby. It says it has a succession plan in place for Ralphie the Seventh to take up the mantle, but there's no timeline for her debut. Deion Sanders his team could be without a bison to pump them up when they begin their season Friday night in Boulder.
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B
I feel for you Ralphie the Six, but I actually want to go back to Ralphie the Fifth for a second because she was an absolute menace. These Ralphies can reach up to 25 miles per hour and Ralphie the Fifth, with nickname Blackout, she once completed her entire run and just 25 seconds. She got so riled up on game day that the school had to retire her because she was ignoring cues from their handlers and running too much. So which would you rather have, a buffalo that charges too hard or a buffalo that has an indifference to running? I don't know. Maybe I'm giving Amber her flowers here because the lackadaisical buffalo is probably a little easier to control than the one that is just out of control running around.
- [28:09]
A
Yes, but it's sort of you had just one job and that is to run onto the field. And if you're a bison that doesn't really want to do that, then maybe you should look for work elsewhere or just chill on the pasture because you're a bison. And you can do that. That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful Thursday. If you have any thoughts or feedback on today's show, send a note to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup is also indifferent to running. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
- [28:42]
B
Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. If your investing platform looks like it was made during the Dial up era, then it's time for a major upgrade.
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