Morning Brew Daily — January 6, 2026

Hosts: Neal Freyman & Toby Howell

Episode Overview

In this episode, Neal and Toby dive into NYC’s congestion pricing policy after its first full year, analyze a shift in company recruiting strategies back toward elite colleges, track evolving American fitness trends from cardio to weightlifting, and ask if America has hit “peak pizza.” The discussion closes with headline rundowns on Venezuela’s geopolitical shakeup, prediction market drama, and public domain milestones.

Key Topics and Insights

1. NYC Congestion Pricing: One Year In

• Main Point: After a tumultuous rollout and initial backlash, New York City's congestion pricing is working — with fewer cars, better traffic, increased public transit ridership, and no observable hit to local business.
• Policy Recap: Since Jan 2025, vehicles entering Manhattan below 60th street are charged $9 between 5am and 9pm.
• Results (03:27):
  • 11% drop in vehicles entering Manhattan—“That’s 27 million fewer cars in total, or 73,000 a day.” (Neal, 03:05)
  • Faster Lincoln Tunnel commutes (51% up), Queens Midtown Tunnel (24%), Manhattan Bridge (29%). (Toby, 04:25)
  • Central business district visits up 3.4% yoy, compared to a 1.4% rise across Manhattan. (Neal, 05:27)
  • Restaurant reservations in the zone are steady or up.
• Business Fears Allayed: Tom Harris, president of Times Square Alliance, reports "no negative impacts" on local businesses. (Neal, 05:11)
• Caveats:
  • Some individuals feel priced out: “Some people are saying, like, hey, I am doing fewer things because of this policy. And sometimes that doesn’t show up necessarily in the data that everyone is celebrating.” (Toby, 06:30)
  • Timing behaviors have shifted; spikes in traffic just before and after toll hours.
  • Not all commuters find traffic resolved: “I'm paying $9... and I'm still waiting in traffic.” (Neal, 07:28)
• Wider Impact: Other cities (including LA) are considering similar models. (Neal, 07:51)

2. The Return of Elite College Recruiting

• Main Point: After years of pandemic-inspired open recruiting, companies are narrowing their hiring to elite or regional universities.
• Data: 26% of surveyed companies now recruit exclusively from a shortlist of schools, up from 17% in 2022. (Toby, 08:02)
• Reasons:
  • In-person work surges; firms focus on schools close to their headquarters.
  • AI-generated resumés increase—employers use school as a screening shortcut.
  • Declining commitment to diversity-driven recruiting (employers citing diversity fell 60% → 31% since 2022).
• Quote: William Chester III (ex-Target and Peloton recruiting): “If you fall outside of those two categories, God help you.” (Neal, 09:27)
• McKinsey’s Pivot: Removed “We hire people, not degrees” from their site despite data showing non-core grads perform better. (Neal, 10:37)
• Tough Market: Unemployment for recent grads rising: “In September 2025 it is up to 5.8%.” (Neal, 11:34)
• Wider Effects:
  • Vibrant mid-sized college towns and non-elite schools are struggling: “Now we are seeing almost power laws in effect where the biggest public schools are doing very well, the elite institutions are doing very well, but these kind of middle tier colleges... are suffering right now.” (Toby, 11:34)

3. Weightlifting: In, Cardio: Out

• Main Point: Americans are flocking to weights instead of cardio, forcing gyms to pivot equipment and strategy.
• Cultural Shift: “The squat rack has a line out the door while the treadmills are collecting dust.” (Neal, 12:34)
• Business Response: Planet Fitness now devotes half its floor to strength, and their revenue is up 13%; stock up 30% in five years. (Toby, 13:48)
• Influence: Social media influencers push muscle mass and protein; Google searches for "cardio" drop 3% per month as "strength" rises 6%. (Neal, 13:19)
• Why the Shift?
  • GLP-1 drugs (like Ozempic) drive focus on building muscle while losing weight. (Neal, 14:33)
  • Multigenerational fitness normalization: “Gen Z grew up as probably the first generation that saw their parents going to the gym pretty regularly.” (Toby, 14:47)
• Adapt or Die: Peloton now offers as many strength classes as cycling; Bowflex, stuck in the cardio era, filed for bankruptcy after sales plunged 25%. (Neal, 15:24)
• Memorable Banter: “Looks like you’re on the right side of history right now. I love seeing you hit the strength training.” (Toby, 15:59)

4. Have We Hit Peak Pizza?

• Main Point: Pizza is losing its spot as America’s go-to food—pushed aside by rising prices and more delivery options.
• Surprising Stat: “Pizza is now ranked sixth amongst different cuisines by US chain sales, down from its usual second place spot it held throughout the 90s.” (Toby, 17:23)
• Chains Struggling: Pizza Hut, Papa John’s explored sales and are closing locations; only Domino’s is thriving (thanks to value “insane deals”).
• Key Quote: “Actually, Toby, I’m shook right now… Pizza Hut has had eight consecutive quarters of sales declines.” (Neal, 18:42)
• Affordable No More: Average cheese pizza now nearly $17; in NYC as high as $30–$40 for large pies. (Neal, 20:24)
• Youth Trends: Kids now demanding sushi—not pizza—at birthday parties: “…we got little tyrants, you know, wanting sushi for every single weeknight meal and every single birthday.” (Toby, 20:44)
• Underlying Drivers:
  • Expanded delivery competition.
  • Soaring prices amidst tightening budgets.

5. Rapid Headlines:

a. Venezuela Geopolitics & Insider Betting (21:14–23:00)

• President Nicolás Maduro and wife plead not guilty in Manhattan after US military raid; Wall Street shrugs, oil stocks rise.
• A Polymarket bettor wins $437K with a suspicious timing on Maduro’s ouster—sparking Congressional calls to ban government officials from betting on prediction markets.

b. Public Domain 2026 (23:00–25:36)

• 1930s IP now free to use: “Betty Boop joined the public domain as well as the first four Nancy books, The Little Engine that Could, Georgia On My Mind, and a bunch of George and Ira Gershwin songs.” (Neal, 23:47)
• Lawyers excited; Hays Code–era shifts allow for “spicy” old movies (pre-ban on “lustful kissing”).
• Hosts muse over which modern IP (e.g., “Fortnite”, “Stranger Things”) will eventually go public.
• Quote: “I can finally release my Nancy Drew rock opera to the world.” (Neal, 23:47)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On congestion pricing:

  • “The first and most important is the cars. There are a lot less of them in Manhattan. About 11% of the vehicles that had been entering... have evaporated since the toll launched, equivalent to 27 million fewer cars in total, or 73,000 a day.”
    – Neal Freyman, 03:05

• On recruiting:

  • “If you fall outside of those two categories, God help you. So that is a little scary…”
    – William Chester III (quoted by Neal), 09:27

• On fitness trends:

  • “The squat rack has a line out the door while the treadmills are collecting dust.”
    – Neal Freyman, 12:34
  • “Gyms do have data on this... it was just overwhelmingly clear that, you know, people want to get swole these days.”
    – Toby Howell, 13:48

• On pizza’s decline:

  • “Pizza is now ranked sixth amongst different cuisines by US chain sales, down from its usual second place spot it held throughout the 90s.”
    – Toby Howell, 17:23
  • “Actually, Toby, I’m shook right now.”
    – Neal Freyman, 18:42

• On public domain changes:

  • “This is kind of a spicy year. Like we have people kissing on screen in some of these movies.”
    – Toby Howell, 23:47

Important Timestamps

• [02:54] NYC Congestion Pricing, Year One Results & Discussion
• [07:59] Companies Shifting Recruiting to Ivy-League & Elite/Regional Schools
• [12:34] America’s Fitness Shift: Cardio Out, Weightlifting In
• [17:23] Is America Over Pizza? Sales Decline & Chain Woes
• [21:14] Venezuela Shocker — US Captures Maduro
• [23:00] Betting Scandal Tied to Venezuela Event
• [23:47] What’s Entering the Public Domain in 2026?

Tone & Style

Neal and Toby keep things witty, conversational, and practical—blending hard stats with everyday observations, cultural references, and tongue-in-cheek asides.

For Listeners Who Missed It…

This episode delivers a wide-ranging, insightful, and genuinely entertaining sweep of U.S. infrastructure policy wins, changing hiring norms, evolving social and health trends, shifts in American dining, world news, and intellectual property. It’s an episode packed with useful data, memorable anecdotes, and a healthy dose of humor—perfect for the daily news, business, and culture enthusiast.