
Polymarket Fakes Creators Winning Bets & Fed Legend Alan Greenspan Dies at 100
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Neal Freyman
Good Morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
Neal Freyman
Today, Polymarket's been exposed for a very sketchy, perhaps illegal, viral marketing scheme.
Toby Howell
Then Instagram wants you to watch reels on your TV. It's Tuesday, June 23rd. Let's ride.
Neal Freyman
Everyone's got that loud friend. The guy or gal whose voice seems to pierce through the air, alerting everyone in a square mile of their presence. But they've got Nothing on Joseph McGrail beat up the Australian air conditioner cleaner and honorary town crier was crowned by Guinness World Records as the loudest person ever. He shouted the word now at 122.4 decibels, on par with the volume of a chainsaw airplane taking off or an ambulance siren blaring close to you. It's not necessarily a matter of practice because you can't for this kind of thing, McGrail Beta said. His cry of now destroyed his voice for the next several days.
Toby Howell
This is the type of dude who somehow ends up as your upstairs neighbor in New York City. His origin story is hilarious. He became competitively loud, the AP wrote, when he was appointed the official, not honorary, the official town crier of Canberra in 2017. He makes announcements at community events, school events, car shows. So he is, you know, gainfully employed as a town crier. And he's also now has a membership in the Ancient and Honorable Guild of Australian Town Criers. I'm glad that there is an honorable one and an ancient one, because these people need a place to show off their talents.
Neal Freyman
I'm just curious how he settled on the word now. Like, is that just the vowel structure you don't like? I was thinking if you started with a P, then maybe you're expending too much energy on the but you're expending too much energy on that particular syllable in that consonant. So now, like the end, you can burst off your tongue there and just go with the bit you stretch your your vocal cords as big as they can go with now.
Toby Howell
The previous record was ironically quiet, which seems a lot more difficult to say. So I think he settled on the right word.
Neal Freyman
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Neal Freyman
To put AI to work for people, visit ServiceNow.com that's ServiceNow.com Polymarket has been up to some very shady stuff the prediction market has been paying creators, mostly college age, to film themselves placing fake wagers on the platform in the hopes of going viral. That's according to the Wall Street Journal, which published a wild investigation into Polymarket's duplicitous scheme to become ubiquitous on the Internet. These reporters reviewed more than 1100 videos made by 10 creators paid by Polymarket, though there are more than 100 total. In these videos, 70% appeared to place a bet on a website that looked like Polymarket wasn't. Remember, this is all for show, and 10% of those videos included fake or outdated footage that suggested they won their bets. In those clips, traders were portrayed as winning $900,000, but in reality they would have lost more than 166,000. Not only were these creators filming themselves placing fake trades, but they didn't disclose in their post that polymarket was funding the whole thing. Only when the Journal reached out did the accounts add, quote polymarket partner to their bios. When asked about the whole thing, Polymarket said in a statement it was quot committed to maintaining accurate, fair and transparent markets. We are part of a rapidly growing industry and are constantly evaluating ways to improve how we're engaging and earning the trust of our audience. Instead would conduct an audit of all active promotional content.
Toby Howell
This is crazy, Neal, a crazy story. I'm just going to give an example of this happening on an individual creator level. So there's this college creator, George Makihara. He posted a video of himself winning $100,000 because Trump supposedly said the world McDonald's during a speech. But here's the issue. Trump never actually said McDonald's that month. And actually the reaction footage that he was supposedly watching happened two months prior. So it was a completely fabricated market that actually if you had bet on that, you would have lost. So that's when the red flags started to come up. As people said this, this is literally an alternate reality. What is going on? Wall Street Journal dove a little bit deeper and saw that this was not an accident. It was actually a conscious choice and marketing tactic by polymarket.
Neal Freyman
Yeah, I mean this thing goes levels deep. First of all, like I said, they made these, not only were they simulated trades but they made them on simulated sites. They created these dupes of polymarket.com one of them was polymarket.com well actually the L in the middle of the poly was actually an uppercase I. So they, this went, this goes down layers so they could make these fake trades. And the other thing that they, that is key to this in entire scheme is paying a third party vendor, another marketing company to make these videos go viral because on their own they necessarily wouldn't have gone viral. But they're getting these lower wage people overseas to just clip these, clip these videos and then send them nuclear across the Internet so that people, so that people see them. And it worked because these were huge
Toby Howell
videos by the way. This is modern marketing whether you like it or hate it. Because again we've spoken about this on the show before but a streamer discusses a polymarket trade. Live creators then make videos of themselves doing it. There's this underground network of clippers that boost it to the algorithm virally. Some people can do this legitimately. Others like polymarket were doing it illegitimately. But I do think that is a peek into how these Internet native companies are getting their product out there. We have spoke about the fact that it seems like every viral market moment suddenly has like a Polymarket or a Kalsi logo on the bottom of it. This is just how the world operates right now. Wall Street Journal peeled back some of the layers to show that it's not operating legitimacy. The biggest one is that you have to disclose a paid partnership when you are receiving money for promoting a product. But I do think it's an unfortunate window into where the marketing world is heading.
Neal Freyman
Yeah, I mean for Polymarket to see the founder Shane Copeland has said that they want to be impossible to ignore. Online virality is everything and you have to look at the context of its rivalry with Kalshi. So these are two of the probably the two biggest prediction markets. Polymarker is not actually available to US users. When this industry really got going a few years ago, Polymarket had a huge lead over Kalshi but Kalshi is making up a ton of ground. Last month Kalshi had about double polymarkets trading volume. And so if viral, virality is the currency for both of these companies and they're fighting for market share, then both of them are trying to go viral online. Polymarket is cutting a few corners. Do that.
Toby Howell
It just seems a little shortsighted because if you want to be viewed as a serious financial, a part of the serious financial infrastructure, but then simultaneously you are doing this on the background, you are kind of shooting yourself in the foot a little bit. Like why would you, in your fight with Kalshi, in your argument that it needs to have a bigger role in finance, would you do something where it kind of undermines all of that progress that you're trying to make? So feels like a short sighted versus a long term goal. Those are a little mismatched right now.
Neal Freyman
And we'll see whether regulators like the CFTC begin an investigation because this is also a gray area that could possibly be violating some marketing laws. Moving on. Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan, the most influential central banker of modern times, has died at 100. Often described as a maestro, Greenspan orchestrated the economy through boom times of low inflation and low unemployment. Celebrated widely for his policy instincts and mastery of data, he was also just a larger than life figure, earning the type of celebrity status and name recognition you wouldn't normally associate with a central bank official. Needless to say, if Morning Brew Daily had been around in the 90s, you'd hear Greenspan mentioned as much as we say I now. One of the reasons Greenspan was so prominent in public life was his longevity. He served as fed chair for 18 and a half years, the second longest tenure ever. He was first appointed by Reagan in 1987, then reappointed another four times by four different presidents of both parties, including both Bush's and Clinton. To sum up just how popular Greenspan was, when John McCain was running for president in 2000, he was asked whether he would keep Greenspan on as Fed Chair. He replied, quote, not only would I reappoint him, but if he died, we'd prop him up and put sunglasses on him as they did in the movie Weekend at Bernie's. But since Greenspan left the position in 2006, his star has dimmed a little because of what happened two years later. The financial crisis, America's worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Critics say Greenspan's hands off approach contributed to the disaster by enabling Wall street to take riskier bets. That eventually blew up the housing market and the rest of the economy with it. Either way, Toby, this guy leaves behind a monumental legacy. BBC called him the architect of the modern American economy.
Toby Howell
He created something that was called the Greenspan put as well, which became a very central concept to modern finance. Basically, investors came to believe that the Fed would step in with interest rate cuts or a liquidity injection whenever markets crashed. And markets did crash under Greenspan. But the result is investors basically believe that the Fed would come in and socialize any losses that would happen. And some people said that that led to overexuberance and excessive risk taking. Greenspan had this very central belief that markets would do well, you know, they would cleanse themselves, they would operate well under less, you know, oversight. But if you look back on his tenure, maybe he did get over in front of his skis a little bit. It did lead to the exact fomenting of the conditions that led to the financial crisis. But the Greenspan put is something that without him, you know, who knows what the market would look like now because it was just so central to that key moment in time when he was managing the Fed.
Neal Freyman
Yeah, we saw that maybe after Covid, when Jerome Powell was leading the Fed at the time, kind of took out the bazooka and did everything they could by injecting liquidity and lowering interest rates to near zero to keep the economy afloat. And that worked. One of my favorite things about Greenspan is that he was also central to developing offbeat economic indicators. We've talked about the Lipstick Index and these other ways of looking at the economy because maybe unemployment or job growth or GDP isn't the way, isn't the best way of seeing what's actually going on in the economy. So he developed a couple of these. One of the most famous ones is the Men's Underwear Index, where if you're trying to see what's going on in the economy, whether people are getting a little anxious, it's you look at men's underwear sales because if you're a little stressed financially just going to keep wearing the same pair, but if you're feeling good, you might shell out for for a new one. And the other one is the cardboard box indicator. He really was clued in on the prices of liner board, which is the raw material for cardboard, to see whether how the economy was doing because maybe high demand for shipping boxes was an early indication that manufacturing retail activity was going up.
Toby Howell
I thought it was fascinating that he had a deep friendship with Ayn Rand, which by the way I thought they existed in different moments in history, but no, they hung out a lot. They were part of each other's inner circles. In her philosophies on markets absolutely influence how Greenspan saw the world. She believed that free market was a moral social system, that if you leave markets alone, trade aligns with human nature and rational self interest. That was Ayn Rand's thought process. You can see it in Greenspan's policies as well. He truly believed financial institutions would regulate themselves, which again sounds naive at this point, but he thought that banks wouldn't want to destroy shareholder value, they would want to protect their reputations. Markets would become these self correcting entities. But as a result, you know, that led to the again the conditions that had Bear Stearns blow up and eventually the, the housing market blow up as well. So his, his legacy and his kind of central thought on the market is absolutely something that was challenged later on in his life. But at the time, again, I can't stress enough how he was viewed as this maestro who just guided the economy through multiple periods of massive boom times that we'd never seen before. Moving on A24 the studio behind basically every movie that is in a sequel or a superhero saga is taking an investment from Google. Google is forking over $75 million for its first ever ownership stake in a movie studio to develop AI tools alongside the minds that brought you Moonlight, Marty Supreme, Uncut Gems and backrooms. At first glance, the two appear to be odd bedfellows. The movie industry doesn't exactly love AI and its job threatening potential. So the A&A24 stands for artificial. One pessimistic Redditor commented on the deal. But A24 and Google's DeepMind AI unit framed the tie up as more of a research partners designed to come up with new workflows and techniques for filmmaking, not replacing creatives. The news comes at a time where Hollywood is on a bit of a hot streak. Toy Story 5 just had the biggest domestic opening since a Minecraft movie, which means the domestic box office is sneakily off to its best start since before the pandemic. A24 contributed to that total with the surprise smash horror hit backrooms, which brought in $300 million worldwide. Which is why, Neil, I think we're seeing some trepidation about this investment. A24 is the most successful independent film studio of the last decade, so to hear their name in conjunction with AI tools was disappointing to some.
Neal Freyman
Yeah, A24 seemed to want to get ahead of the potential criticism. Scott Belsky who's an A24 partner, said that the new tools that they might develop with Google DeepMind, quote, won't look anything like the prompted generation type of AI that people feel uncomfortable with. They're framing this as just a way to make movies cheaper and more efficient. Very similar to the line that Ben Affleck was taking because he developed this AI company that they eventually sold to Netflix a few months ago. And they're just saying, look, we have these tools available and there's a lot of busy work that goes into just actually making the movie. It's not. We're not going to use it for the creative process at all. But we might as well use these tools and bring it to Hollywood in a way that makes all of our lives easier. And we can make more. We can make movies at a lower price.
Toby Howell
It's interesting from A24, though, because they have this reputation as being this great place for emerging filmmakers to make their debuts. They resonate heavily with us young audiences. It's one of the only studio brands that audiences seek out because of the brand name itself. And yet here they are kind of engaging with AI, which is clearly something that their audiences tend to dislike. Kane Parsons, who directed Backrooms, which is the studio's highest grossing film by a long way, called AI, genuinely harmful and a signifier of cultural and economic rotation. So even though they're trying to, you know, hedge their bets and saying, we're not going to use it to replace creatives, it feels like a weird deal for them to strike, for sure.
Neal Freyman
Yeah. Let's do back to the box office, though, because you mentioned that I do want to emphasize just how much people are going to the movies this year. It's a truly great movie year. AMC just reported that had its busiest weekend of 2026 after Toy Story 5. So that opened to $160 million, the biggest opening week's weekend box office performance of the year. They also said that was the sixth movie title in the past three months to open to more than 75 million. You had back rooms, Mandalorian and Grogu, Devil Wears Prada to Michael, Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary. So we're on pace potentially for $10 billion in box office revenue this year. We haven't got there, not even close since COVID I mean, regularly before, before the pandemic we were seeing with all these superhero movies coming out, we were regularly getting over $10 billion in box office revenue. Right now, near the midway of the year, we're at 4.46 so for the first time in a while, movie theater owners are saying, wow, you know, thank you, a 24. Thank you all these studios for giving us some good product. People, young people want to actually go to the movies.
Toby Howell
It's crazy because that is multiple genres that are working like Michael and Devil Wears Prada too in the backrooms. Those are all very, very different audience right there, which is why you're seeing this robust box office. Also looking ahead, the pipeline looks very strong. There is a big superhero movie coming. Spider man, brand new day that will make a lot of money. The Odyssey as well, Supergirl. And then Moana has another. I don't actually don't even know if it's an animated or.
Neal Freyman
I think it's a live action.
Toby Howell
It's a live action Moana coming. So there. This is going to be a very good year for movies and continue to be a very good year for movies. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with Toby's trends right after this. Neil, I want to tell you about something I personally love very much.
Neal Freyman
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Neal Freyman
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Toby Howell
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Neal Freyman
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Toby Howell
Description so after a long day at work, you might find yourself plopping down on the couch making some popcorn, turning on the TV to watch Instagram content that is the photo sharing apps Vision A vision I want to talk about on today's edition of Toby's Trends. Pull out your phone right now and give Instagram a scroll. Chances are you'll come across a horizontal video amidst the more common vertical videos. That's exactly Instagram's intention, and it's why yesterday it announced it's testing out horizontal content on its preexisting Instagram for TV app. Instagram VP Tess alliance has called TV the next frontier for the platform, and it's actively encouraging creators to make content that looks a lot like normal tv. That means nudging people towards longer form videos, episodic content, and serialized storytelling. By testing horizontal video formats specifically designed for larger screens, it runs directly against the vertical video trend that has dominated social media since the rise of TikTok. But Neil Instagram on TV feels definitely a little weird. Scrolling IG feels like a distinctly small screen activity. But when you realize that Instagram is competing for the same eyeballs Netflix and YouTube and HBO are, the vision becomes a little more clear.
Neal Freyman
Last year the writer Derek Thompson wrote an essay called quote, Everything is television and that seemed to be very prescient. He said it a couple data points here. More than 80% of the time spent on Facebook, more than 90% of the time spent on Instagram is spent watching videos and not actually doing social media. Most of that time is actually spent watching videos from creators that you have never met and you don't even know. Meanwhile, podcasts are also moving in the, quote, television direction. Consumption of video podcasts is growing 20 times faster than audio only ones. If you want to know the biggest podcast platform on the planet, it's not Spotify or Apple, it's actually YouTube. So it's very interesting to see these social media companies move to their maybe Logical end point, which is USA channel.
Toby Howell
Everyone is moving into everyone else's territory. That's another way of framing it because YouTube already dominates t viewing. It just passed Netflix and in US television viewership, which is crazy. Netflix just added a vertical video clips feed where you can watch short form video content. And they're also making a big push into video podcasts. TikTok has its own micro drama business where it's creating its original content. Instagram obviously is moving into TVs as well. So the distinction between the social media company and just traditional media company has completely blurred a long time ago because everyone, as I said, is fighting over those same eyeballs. So you got to be everywhere, everywhere, all at once. Little A24 everything, everywhere, all at once.
Neal Freyman
You got it. But what do you think? Like you're the Toby's trends whisperer. Like do you think eventually, maybe not now, but in a year or two, it won't be crazy to go sit on your couch and then fire up the Instagram app and see what's going on?
Toby Howell
I think right now part of the reason why horizontal video is so in is because one, it interrupts your pattern scrolling on social media. Because if you're seeing a lot of vertical videos, when you come across a horizontal one, you just pause for a little bit and say, oh, this is something different. Also horizontal feels more premium right now. It feels more associated with things like TV or movies. We are currently in this age of cinematic social where people are putting much more time into their videos. They're longer, they have like these narrative arcs. Like you come back to these accounts week after week to watch the same thing. So. So right now it is definitely the trend du jour on social media. Will that ever actually translate into plopping down your couch? Maybe. I don't know. It's pretty easy to watch on my phone right now. But clearly people like unwinding with, you know, content on their tv. I never thought that podcasts would be a popular thing on tv, but now they are. So all this to say, I definitely think it is something that is happening on your phones. I it remains to be seen if it will Translate to your TVs. Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Remember when Space X was a bigger company than Amazon and Microsoft? Well, it's not anymore. Shares plunged 16% yesterday for their worst trading day since going public. After falling another 8% combined over the previous two trading sessions. The three day sell off has erased more than $600 billion in market value after the company's blockbuster IPO 11 days ago. Remember, SpaceX priced shares at 135, opened at 150, then roared to 225, briefly becoming the world's fourth most valuable public company. Now the stock is back near 155, barely hanging above its opening price. Why the drawdown? Investors seem rattled by SpaceX's first ever bond offering, where it's looking to raise $20 billion to fund its AI ambitions, which raises questions about future debt costs. There's also growing concern that upcoming lockup expirations could unleash a wave of insider selling and pump up the stock's tradable share count, which is still small right now. Deal. Whatever the reason, Space X has returned to Earth.
Neal Freyman
Yeah, and it's not the only big tech stock getting bruised up. Google parent Alphabet tumbled 5% yesterday for its worst day on the stock market in more than a year. Wall street is getting spooked after two leading AI researchers left for rivals. Noam Shazier, the co lead of gemini, is joining OpenAI, and John Jumper, a Nobel Prize winner and VP of DeepMind, absconded for anthropic. Investors are worried that Google is losing the war for top AI talent, especially after it raised $141 billion in debt and equity to fuel investments.
Toby Howell
One other reason why Google may have had a little bit of a rough go of it is not their 824 investment. Over the weekend, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella told the Wall Street Journal that the AI market is becoming increasingly commoditized. His argument is that AI models are becoming interchangeable. You can use Cloud, you can use OpenAI, you can use Gemini. They're all basically the same, so that makes it harder for anyone to build a lasting moat. This has obviously been something a lot of industry watchers have warned about for a while now. To hear it come out of Satya Nadella's mouth, that made it just bruised the entire AI industry as a whole. Couple that with the fact that Alphabet has raised $141 billion in debt in equity since last October to fund its AI buildout. And that's part of the reason why we saw its stock fall yesterday.
Neal Freyman
And finally, Lionel Messi made World cup history, scoring the most goals of any player in the tournament ever. Messi added two more goals in Argentina's win over Austria, bringing his total to 18 across six World Cups. But he probably can't help but look in the rearview mirror because another superstar is fast approaching. France's Killian Mbappe also scored two goals yesterday, bringing his World cup total to 16, just two off of Messi's record. And Norway's Erling Hollande, a Viking who decided to play soccer, has already notched four in his first World Cup. In fact, these three goal scoring machines are putting on a dazzling display every time they step on the pitch. Yesterday was the second straight group of games where Messi, Mbappe and Hollande scored at least two goals. Ronaldo must feel left out.
Toby Howell
When we were putting the show together yesterday, we're like, we should probably do something on the World Cup. What do you think will happen? And we were like, well, Messi is probably going to break the all time scoring record. And he did so to put his longevity into perspective, Messi's first World cup goal came in 2006 when he scored against Serbia and Montenegro. Serbia and Montenegro is no longer a country. They are two different sovereign nations now. That's how long he's been at it, I do think. I mean, you mentioned the rearview mirror. Mbappe is hard to ignore. He has 16 goals in 16 games. It took Messi 28 games to score 18 goals. So he is coming and then Holland is also coming.
Neal Freyman
Yeah, I mean, the race for the. It's becoming a tournament within the tournament, the race for the Golden Boot, which is who can score the most goals in any given World Cup. And right now we have Messi with five because he scored a hat trick in his first game, and then two last again yesterday. And then we have Mbappe with four because he went two and two, and Holland with with four as well. So, I mean, people are locked in on the World cup, but also we are very locked in on the Golden Boot. And finally, I have to know, if you want to see Messi play again in the knockout stages, it's potentially that he could line up against Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal. There's a quarterfinal game in Kansas City and prices are going haywire. The get in price right now for a potential Messi, Ronaldo, Portugal versus Argentina, both of them in their last World Cups. This is over $4,000, but we do need to see see that happen. I'll probably be watching on tv. That is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful Tuesday. To share your thoughts on the episode or anything else, send an email to Morning Bird Daily at Morning Broadcom or DM us on Instagram @MB Daily Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our supervising producer. Raymond Lu is our senior producer. Our producer is Olivia Graham. And our associate producer is Olivia Lake. Technical direction by Nina Miller. Hair and makeup is Chasing the Golden Boot. Devin Emery is our president, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
Toby Howell
Great show, Daniel. Let's run it back tomorrow.
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Morning Brew Daily - Episode Summary
Episode: Polymarket Fakes Creators Winning Bets & Fed Legend Alan Greenspan Dies at 100
Date: June 23, 2026
Hosts: Neal Freyman & Toby Howell
This episode covers a wide-ranging slate of business, tech, and cultural headlines, led by an exposé on Polymarket's viral and dubious marketing schemes, reflections on the legacy of the late Alan Greenspan, a landmark AI investment by Google into A24, and discussions of Instagram's push onto the TV screen. The hosts—a blend of witty and incisive—unpack each story with memorable banter, sharp analysis, and notable quotes.
[03:15–08:22]
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[12:54–16:10]
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[16:10–17:39]
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[20:02–23:02]
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[23:39–27:46]
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On Polymarket’s Scheme:
On Greenspan’s Popularity:
On A24 and AI:
On the State of Streaming and Social Media:
Witty and conversational, the hosts balance skepticism and fascination as they unpack the week's biggest business stories. Listeners come away engaged, informed, and better equipped to spot the business and cultural trends shaping the day.