Morning Brew Daily: Postal Services Stop US Shipping & Keurig Dr Pepper Spends $18B on Coffee

Date: August 26, 2025
Hosts: Neal Freyman and Toby Howell

Episode Overview

This episode dives into several major developments across business, economy, and lifestyle trends, with the Morning Brew Daily hosts breaking down:

• President Trump's move to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook and its potential impact on the central bank and inflation,
• Global postal services suspending U.S. business shipping due to new tariffs,
• Keurig Dr Pepper's $18 billion coffee megadeal,
• Elon Musk's antitrust lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI,
• The slow disappearance of dining rooms in American homes,
• Quick takes on new tariffs, airline policies, collectible markets, and more.

Neal and Toby keep the tone witty yet informative, blending detailed analysis with memorable banter.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. President Trump Attempts to Fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook (03:24)

• What Happened:

  • Trump sent Fed Governor Lisa Cook a letter claiming “sufficient cause” to remove her, citing allegations of mortgage fraud.
  • Cook replied that Trump lacks legal authority, stating, “you can't fire me. I'm not quitting.” (04:04)

• Why It Matters:

  • Unprecedented challenge to the Federal Reserve’s independence.
  • Legal murkiness: Since 1913, presidents can only remove Fed officials “for cause,” typically extreme misconduct or incompetence.
  • If Trump succeeds and appoints loyalists, he could shift the Fed’s balance, boost chances of aggressive rate cuts, and risk higher inflation.

• Historical Context & International Comparison:

  • Neal draws parallels to Turkey’s 2021 surge to 86% inflation after President Erdogan installed a loyalist central bank chief.
  • Markets react negatively, with U.S. dollar falling and all major indexes down.

• Notable Quote:

  • “This sets up a massive legal showdown that could change the course of the economy and impact the wallet of everyone listening.” — Neal (04:29)

2. International Postal Services Halt U.S. Business Shipping (09:00)

• What Happened:
  • Over a dozen foreign postal services have suspended business shipments to the U.S. due to a new tariff regime ending the de minimis exemption (which allowed imports under $800 to enter duty-free).
  • New tariffs are especially disruptive to small global sellers, Etsy shops, and niche e-commerce brands.
• Impact and Details:
  • Over 1.36 billion shipments annually were under de minimis—impacting 90% of incoming packages.
  • Tariffs now apply to business shipments from all countries, with rates like 15% for the EU and 20% for Vietnam.
  • The gigantic influx of paperwork—not just cost—inhibits many postal services and businesses.
• Winners & Losers:
  • Big retailers may adapt by building U.S. fulfillment centers; small shops often can't.
  • Low- and middle-income U.S. consumers, reliant on affordable imports, are hit hardest.
• Personal Gifts Still Allowed:
  • Letters and small gifts under $100 sent person-to-person are exempt.
• Notable Quote:
  • “[These] tariffs are going to fall the hardest on the people less likely to be able to absorb higher costs. So that’s just from the consumer perspective, another reason why this is going to be very impactful.” — Toby (11:56)

3. Keurig Dr Pepper’s $18 Billion Coffee Deal (12:01)

• The Deal:
  • Keurig Dr Pepper acquires Amsterdam-based JD Peet’s (including nearly 50 major brands, such as Peet’s Coffee) for over $18 billion.
  • Company to split into two: one focused on soda/refreshment; one exclusively on coffee—becoming the world's largest pure-play coffee business.
• Industry Context:
  • Coffee: huge, relatively stable demand (over 516 million U.S. cups/day), but short-term volatility due to tariffs and climate pressures.
  • Soda: Dr Pepper's beverage business has outpaced its K-Cup/coffee side, with U.S. beverage sales up 11% and coffee sales flat last quarter.
  • Food sector “slice and dice”: The hosts note many food giants are merging, splitting, and selling off units in response to changing demand, Ozempic/GLP-1 drugs, and volatile input costs.
• Notable Quote:
  • “This just gives a little bit of clarity to investors. Either you want to bet on coffee or you want to bet on soda. It got a little murky when you tried to bet on both.” — Toby (13:48)

4. Musk Sues Apple & OpenAI for Alleged Antitrust Violation (17:57)

• What Happened:
  • Elon Musk files a lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI, alleging illegal collusion to block his company XAI’s chatbot from iPhones, following Apple’s ChatGPT integration deal.
• Industry Perspective:
  • Musk draws parallels to Google’s DOJ antitrust case (Google pays Apple >$20B to be Safari’s default search).
  • Apple pushes back, saying its App Store is unbiased, pointing out other rival AI chatbots have reached #1.
  • The Justice Department has an ongoing case with Apple, which lost a motion to dismiss.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Elon’s lawyers have been doing their homework because this lawsuit…is very similar to the DOJ's successful antitrust case against Google.” — Neal (19:31)
  • “Neil, I hope we all find something we love as much as Elon loves suing his rivals.” — Toby (19:24)

5. Trends: Disappearing Dining Rooms (21:18)

• Trend Highlight:
  • Formal dining rooms are vanishing from U.S. homes; only 25% of recent listings mention them.
  • Homeowners, especially younger and first-time buyers, prefer adaptable “flex rooms” (offices, guest rooms, hobby spaces).
  • In the Southeast, some evidence of a dining room revival, but most regions see kitchens as the new central gathering space.
• Why the Shift?
  • Modern priorities: maximizing living space amidst high housing costs.
  • Kitchens serve as both eating/meeting areas and status symbols (think large islands, gourmet ranges).
  • Generational and regional influences; more solo households mean less demand for large entertaining rooms.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Formal dining rooms have almost been eliminated from our design vocabulary.” — Toby (22:11)
  • “I say good riddance to the dining room…when you can’t afford a huge house, every square inch counts.” — Neal (22:51)

6. Quick Headlines Roundup (24:53)

Furniture Tariffs Incoming (24:53)

• Trump announces new tariffs on foreign-made furniture.
• Restoration Hardware, Wayfair stocks drop; U.S.-made furniture makers like La-Z-Boy unaffected.
• Experts warn against big new investments due to tariff uncertainty; prices already rising.

Southwest Airlines Policy Change (26:54)

• Southwest moves to assigned seating and requires larger travelers to buy extra seats upfront (refunds no longer guaranteed).
• Ends “bags fly free” and shifts more toward mainstream airline model, angering loyalists.

Cracker Barrel Branding Backlash (27:38)

• After logo change and removal of mascot, customers revolt; company reassures fans: “Uncle Herschel…will stick around.”

Kevin O’Leary’s Trading Card Record-Breaker (29:04)

• “Mr. Wonderful” and partners buy a Kobe Bryant/Michael Jordan sports card for $12.9M—the priciest trading card ever.

• Hosts note collectibles market boom: Target, Walmart, and eBay report huge surges in trading card sales.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “I can’t think of one person who would want to rush out and invest in making generic furniture in the USA when those investments would be rendered worthless by a change in tariff policy.” — Jason Miller, quoted by Toby (25:57)
  • “Knock Mr. Wonderful all you want, but he definitely is looking at this as an asset class and saying holy moly. It’s no different from something like real estate or my bitcoin holdings.” — Toby (30:01)

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• On Tariffs Hurting Small Businesses:
  “Small retailers are kind of just throwing their hands up...saying hey, we cannot figure out how to add duties directly at checkout…so that's going to affect a lot of sellers on these smaller sites like Etsy.” — Toby (09:59)

• On Fed Independence:
  “Unprecedented…this hasn’t happened in the United States…you see a vertical line the next year going to 86% inflation.” — Neal (06:16)

• On Home Design Trends:
  “Supersized kitchens are both a meeting place and an eating place, but also a status symbol.” — Toby (23:51)

• Elon Musk’s Litigious Fervor:
  “I hope we all find something we love as much as Elon loves suing his rivals.” — Toby (19:24)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [03:24] — President Trump Moves to Remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook
• [09:00] — Global Postal Services Suspend US Shipping (De Minimis Tariff Changes)
• [12:01] — Keurig Dr Pepper's $18 Billion Coffee Acquisition
• [17:57] — Elon Musk Sues Apple & OpenAI (AI Antitrust)
• [21:18] — Toby's Trends: The Disappearance of Dining Rooms
• [24:53] — Headlines: Furniture Tariffs, Airline Changes, Cracker Barrel, Trading Cards

Final Thoughts

From seismic policy shifts at the Fed and the White House to rippling global trade effects and iconic food and beverage mergers, this episode underscores how intertwined business, politics, and consumer trends are right now. Neal and Toby offer a breezy yet highly informed take, perfect for listeners who want to keep their finger on the pulse of fast-moving business news.