
Recapping Powell’s Turbulent Legacy & Fans Go Crazy Over Swatch Collab
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good morning brew Daily Show I'm Neal Freyman.
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And I'm Toby Howell.
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Today Jerome Powell leaves the Federal Reserve after a turbulent eight years.
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Then Honda just reported its first loss in 70 years. It's Friday, May 15th. Let's ride.
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Good morning and Happy Friday. Last night the NFL dropped its full schedule for the upcoming season, which has somehow ballooned into a major social media holiday. Each team tries to outdo one another with comedic videos revealing their 2026 slates, tapping celebrities for cameos, and borrowing styles from other types of media. The Chargers, often regarded as the creme de la creme of scheduled release videos, once again impressed by using the Halo video game series as inspiration, the Raiders parodied stepbrothers. The Panthers set off controlled explosions to unveil their opponents, and the jets lean into ASMR painting to reveal all the teams they'll lose to this season. The of course, the NFL has turned a schedule release into a must watch event.
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It's not just the scheduled release, it's also the schedule itself is just slowly spreading its tentacles across the rest of the week. So Lev Acopos on X noted that the NFL has been moving from Sundays into the rest of the week. The percentage of NFL games that occur on non Sundays has risen from less than 7% in the 1960s to nearly 19% so far in the 2020. So if you feel like your partner is somehow always watching a game in which their fantasy football team is underperforming, you're not wrong. NFL schedule creep is real. And now a word from our sponsor, AT&T Business. Neil, check it out. I'm totally high tech. I built a Toby AI for my business.
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So far? Eat up a lot of my bandwidth.
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At the Federal Reserve today, Kevin Walsh is officially taking over as chairman of the central bank, becoming the most powerful economic policymaker in the world. With Wash stepping into the role. Jerome Powell's watch has ended after eight years. Eight years that probably felt like a lifetime. Powell's run as Fed chair will go down as one of the most consequential in history. He led the bank's response to historic economic shocks, Covid soaring inflation, Russia's war in Ukraine, the current crisis in the Middle East. At the same time he was dealing with those issues, he was forced to defend the Fed's independence after he came under withering criticism from President Trump, the same man who nominated Powell back in 2017 and clearly regretted that Powell's tenure won him legions of fans as well as a number of detractors. He was praised for the Fed's creative response to the pandemic, unleashing a bazooka of stimulus to keep the economy from collapsing. And many others admired his backbone standing up to Trump. But Powell also had his share of stumbles, most notably allowing inflation to skyrocket to a 40 year high in 2022. And it remains above target four years later. But with Powell, it's not goodbye, it's see you later. Citing Trump's pressure on the central bank, he'll continue working in his role as Fed governor, the first former Fed chair to not dip out completely in more than 75 years. Kevin Marsh. You've got some big shoes to fill.
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You really do. It feels like my life as a business news consumer corresponded exactly when Powell came into, you know, the Fed chair. So it's going to be weird not referencing him when we're talking about all these different, you know, financial comings and goings that happen in the economy. I did just take a trip down memory lane. And probably the thing that most people are going to remember Powell for is just how he handled the COVID pandemic and a lot of praise that he got for stabilizing markets. Powell even called him, or, sorry, Trump even called Powell and jokingly called him my most improved player for, you know, handling a pandemic so well. And then what happened after that was a little bit of a rougher patch because that transitory inflation line is another thing that will just always be associated with Powell because the Fed was just a little bit slow to react to that inflation going up. They had been a little bit nervous after the recovery in 2008. So that is one notch in his calm, one notch against him, and Then they did pull off a soft landing. That was the other thing that you and I said a lot of times on this podcast is will the Fed be able to bring back down inflation, keep the job market alive, do the vaunted soft landing where you control both those things at the same time. And he kind of delivered it, which is another check in his column. So for every detractor, for every, you know, person who praises Powell, you can find a data point corresponding to whatever camp you fall in.
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Yeah, I remember at Jackson Hole, which is the central bank conference in August 2022, Powell gave an eight minute speech that sent shockwaves across the global economy because he said that bring inflation down from 9%. And again he said this, this, this inflation would be quote, transitory, which is a quote that will haunt him for a long time because he thought when supply chains fix themselves after Covid, that inflation would come down. But, but it turned out to be a much stickier issue. So he warned of pain for the economy as the Fed jacked up interest rates at the fastest pace in 40 years to bring down inflation from 9%. He Pretty much every economist said there would be 100% chance of a recession as the Fed jacked up interest rates to bring inflation down. But that didn't happen.
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It didn't happen. And the other thing that did happen though is that when you jack up interest rates that much, things got a little wonky in the banking industry. And you can't just overlook the banking mini banking crisis that happened where Silicon Valley bank collapsed because these rapid rate hikes, rate hikes kind of blew up all these low yield bonds that were still on bank's balance sheets from a previous era of the Fed. So it was such a consequential term that like you could just go down the list. It feels like every single month he was dealing with something else. But maybe his defining legacy, I've already said he's been defined by multiple things, is Fed independence because he very strongly and very robustly bossly stood up against President Trump. Remember he released a video decrying this investigation into him. How many times do you see Fed, you know, governors and Fed chairs go direct to the American public and start to stand up for the institution that they represent. That is not something that happens normally, but I think that's what a lot of people will associate Powell with going forward is just that he took this stand and stood up for the thing that is most important to the Fed.
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Yeah, that video, I mean, was just absolutely shocking where he just stood up in that room, couple minute video saying that he's under investigation. It's directly because he wasn't lowering interest rates like President Trump wanted. Just a huge historic moment in the Federal Reserve's history. Let's talk Kevin Wash. So Kevin Marsh is coming in today. He was confirmed earlier this week and maybe this is a sign of how the Fed has been politicized. The vote to confirm Kevin Marsh was 54 to 45. That was the slimmest confirmation margin ever. Just one Democrat, John Fetterman, voted for Wash. There's concern that he will be a lot more acquiescent to President Trump's demands to lower interest rates than Jerome Powell was. Meanwhile, he comes into a very sticky situation. Jerome Powell didn't leave him with the most, you know, the most serene economy because we are seeing inflation rise again. Inflation is moving higher at its fastest pace in three years, 3.8%. We got that consumer price index report earlier this week. And then just a few days ago we got the producer price index as well, which set off more inflation alarm bells. This is wholesale prices. This is what companies pay to bring in goods to make other goods. And the producer price index for April rose 6% from a year ago, which blew away all expectations.
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Jay Powell era is over. The washing machine era begins and I couldn't be more excited. Moving on. It's a big week for horologists. One of the most exclusive watchmakers has teamed up with one of the most prolific watchmakers on a collab that had people camp stamping out for five days in advance. Audemars Piguet, AKA ap, worked with the budget watchmaker Swatch on an eight piece collection dubbed Royal Pop. The royal part references the iconic Royal Oak from AP which can run you north of $50,000, while the pop refers to the bold colored budget Swatch line from the 80s. Smush them together and you get the royal Pop that will go on sale for over $400 this Saturday. Even if you're not a watch person, you likely got sucked into the hype cycle around this Collab and AI generated versions flooded Instagram as people speculated what the high low team up would look like. And the lines to buy are outrageous. CNN spoke to some people who had been camped out since Tuesday for their chance to buy one this weekend. However, one group that wasn't a fan was Swatch shareholders, who sent the stock down about 7% on Wednesday after it was revealed that the collaboration with AP was a pocket watch. One analyst called it quite odd and questioned whether the concept will have legs beyond the initial hype. Neil, I don't know the difference between a lapine and a savinet, but I think I might be the target audience. A younger watch curious person is exactly who AP is trying to attract with his team up.
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Yeah. First of all, this was completely unexpected and surprising. One one watch analyst wrote. It was so spectacularly unexpected that less than a week ago, absolutely no one, myself included, could have possibly believed such a collab would ever happen. It's like Erewhon teaming up doing a pop up store with Walmart. But the goal here is to drive from people like you in mechanical watches because mechanical watches are seeing just less demand. They're getting eaten into by, by smart watches and other things. So these two companies are pulling off, are trying to pull off the completely unexpected to get younger people, to get people back interested in mechanical watches. And the one thing where you do that is with collabs like these that has people waiting out, waiting outside of stores for five days. But also just bring down the price point from where, where someone can maybe own an AP watch. They can never. But you can do it at $400 now.
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Yeah. People in the pro collab camp say that this is very fun. It doesn't do damage to the core brand of AP and it also just makes horology feel a little less stiff because it's a fun little collab. It comes with a, you know, a lanyard you can hang on your bag or something like that. The anti collab camp says that this cheapens the royal oak. This is an iconic silhouette. It's way too gimmicky. It's not a real ap. Those are kind of the two thoughts that have diverged in the woods. I think it's going to become more like a labo boo type thing because it feels like they have these charms and these accessories and I do think that you'll start to see them on, you know, red carpets or on people's like athletes as they walk out to games and stuff like that. So I really do think that it's about expanding watch culture. Again, I am talking about it as someone who doesn't really understand watches because it is just this fascinating thing. Whenever you have some very, very luxury brand go down the pecking order it's going to get people talking.
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Yeah. I mean this definitely broke containment from the watch industry into the wider public. And so that's why people outside of horology, which you just dropped that word without. I know, without kind of.
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I love it.
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Tax. It's a Good word are talking about it. And the demand seems there, at least in the build up to the release, which is tomorrow. Moving on. Welcome to Stock of the Week, Dog of the Week, our Friday segment where we pick one stock that floated like a butterfly and another that stung like a bee. I won the pre show game of Mario Kart, so I get to go first. And my stock of the week is the tobacco industry because their main nemesis just got vanquished. On Tuesday, FDA Commissioner Marty Makary resigned after a bumpy 13 months overseeing America's drug regulation, food safety, cosmetics and medical devices. Makary's tenure was marked by all kinds of controversy, but the final straw was his opposition to flavored vapes, which put him at odds with his boss, President Trump. And that's why Big Tobacco is glad to see him gone. Tobacco companies like Marlboro maker Altria and Reynolds have been in Trump's ear for months, urging him to make good on his campaign promise to save vaping by approving fruit flavored E cigarettes. But they grew frustrated by McCary slow walking the issue, presumably because McCrery was against it and decided to take their grievances directly to the president. Early in May, tobacco executives and lobbyists complained to Trump about Makary. According to the New York Times, Trump was sympathetic to their concerns and interrupted that conversation to call it Makary right that second. He didn't pick up then very angry. At this point, Trump called up the health higher ups RFK Jr and Dr. Oz to make life easier for the tobacco industry. And the gears were set in motion. Last Friday, the FDA paved the way for U.S. tobacco companies to start selling flavored vapes while a defeated Makary began packing up his things. There couldn't have been a better outcome for this industry.
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I guess the lesson is always answer your phone because you never know when your boss might be calling. Dr. Celine Gounder went through and tracked how the tobacco industry donated to the Trump campaign in the lead up to his second presidency on her subject because they invested very heavily in him. RIA Services, which is part of British American Tobacco, gave $10 million to the Make America Great Again super PAC. Altria gave 1 million to the same PAC and 1 million to his inauguration fund. Both of them chipped in for the President's White House ballroom renovation as well. So her contention was basically just the money here. If you want to see how the tobacco industry has suddenly regained a foothold and is looking on much more stable footing, it's because they donate a lot of money to The Trump presidency campaign.
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And, you know, when I first read this news, I was like, wait. Tobacco industry is probably against vaping because they sell cigarettes and they think that vaping is taking away their market. Well, all these tobacco companies have seen the writing on the wall for years and decades now. They're moving away from actual cigarettes and towards e cigarettes and nicotine pouches, which is where the real growth is in the industry. I just went to Altria's website this morning. Now, this is the company that makes Marlboro. They're, they're like big slogan, that's the headline of their entire website is moving beyond smoking. So that's why these companies are all in on vaping and nicotine pouches. And the market there is huge. It's about 30 million people in the United States, which is basically the same with the number of cigarette smokers. We've seen Zinn be huge for Philip Morris. And that's why these companies are trying to push for flavored E cigarettes, because they think that is a way forward for this entire industry.
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And you mentioned that there's 30 million vape users. 60% of that market is going towards illegal flavored Chinese vapes that just flood the country. And so the argument from the industry is, listen, kids are smoking vapes regardless because they are getting them at gas stations are coming in from China. If you want to regulate this industry, let us play in the ballpark, then we actually have some oversight. Do not let it be dominated by these illegal Chinese vapes. That's the, that's the argument that they're saying. Obviously, it benefits them as well, but specifically, they want to try to recapture what the future of nicotine looks like. And looks like it's going to be vapes and pouches. So they want to play in that ballpark. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with our dog of the week right after this.
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ends June 30th terms at aka Ms. College PC my dog of the week is Honda, who just lost money for the first time in 70 years. Honda reported an operating loss of $2.7 billion for the fiscal year ending in March. That's the first loss it's had on its books since becoming a publicly traded company back in 1957. The source of their woes is the aggressive pivot to EVs. It invested billions of dollars in battery plants and partnerships to try and chase down rivals like Tesla and byd. But like a Tinder profile with only fish picks, demand never quite materialized. It had plans to go fully EV and hydrogen powered by 2040, but buyers remain skeptical, forcing Honda to cancel future EV models, which means billions went into designing cars that never saw the road. The lofty goals are now officially shelved. Of course, the policy environment did them no favors. Trump eliminated the $7,500 tax credit back in September and imposed tariffs on imported cars, a double whammy that led to $10 billion in restructuring charges and write downs. It's now u turning into more profitable directions and has shifted its attention towards releasing 15 new hybrid models by 2030. Neil Back when Honda announced the bold prediction of ditching combustion engines, they were praised for it. Now the rug has been pulled out from underneath them and it's making history in all the wrong ways.
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Yeah, Honda was building for Biden. They were building for an EV future where electric vehicles make made up more and more and more sales of the United States, which is its largest, largest market, according to Honda executives. Their internal targets. They expected EV'S to account for about 15% of new vehicle sales in the United States. But today that figure is around 6%. And EV sales actually decreased last year. So this is an industry that has gone into reverse and EV industry and Honda was building for a future that just never materialized. I'm just thinking about all the times that people have made decks for their managers that kind of got scrapped. Well, imagine building plants and building, putting all of these, all this, billions of dollars in time and money into, into these cars that just never materialized.
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But Honda is not alone. And honestly, when you compare it to the rest of the auto industry, they're not looking that bad. Because Ford recently took a $17.4 billion EV related charge in 2025. Stellantis took a $29 billion write down as well. General Motors a $7.2 billion charge. So if you look at the 10 billion hit that Honda took, it actually is kind of middle of the road. Also, one thing Honda has that other car companies do not is a very healthy motorcycle business. Their motorcycle business has captured almost a third of the global market and it accounted for roughly half of the company's profits because sales are still going there. They grew 11% last year. So they are actually expanding their electric two wheel offerings even though people hate their electric four wheel offer.
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Yeah, I mean Honda has been known for decades for just making sick engines. And when. So when they announced that they were moving away from engines and towards batteries in 2021, everyone was like, wow, this is not really your bread and butter. So that was a little bit of a headache when they announced this. And it was a bet that went extremely wrong. And you can't ignore what's happening in China, which is what every non Chinese carmaker is dealing with, which is cutthroat, cutthroat competition, price wars, just all of these companies moving into that particular market. It is losing a lot of ground in China. Like so many other automakers, Honda sales have been cut in more than half in recent years in China. And so this is, you hear this from Ford, gm, Tesla, every single company is saying it's just impossible to compete in China. And we're seeing that on Honda's books right now.
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It was really funny. I would Google Honda problems to research for this story and all I got was Formula one news because they make engines for a lot of Formula one cars. So apparently Aston Martin is having some safety issues with their Honda engines there as well. So good luck in Formula 1 and good luck in EVs going forward. Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Cerebras went public yesterday and one of the hottest debutantes of the era did not disappoint. Shares jumped 100% at one point after opening on the Nasdaq, powering it to a valuation that briefly eclipsed $100 billion. Good for the biggest IPO for a US tech company. Since Uber went public back in 2019, Cerebras has built its business around making really big chips home to 4 trillion transistors designed for AI inference and counts OpenAI in Amazon major customers. The debut also shows the Joey Chestnut level appetite for anything tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, especially companies that are positioning themselves as challengers to Nvidia in the race to power AI models. Neal, a nice appetizer for the main course of AI iPod potentially coming later this year like OpenAI. Anthropic in Space X yeah, an incredible debut.
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The one red flag for Cerebras is customer concentration. This was not the first time that Cerebrus tried to go public. It tried to do it it back in 2024, but you have to fill out paperwork to show your customer base. And when they did that, it was revealed that in 2024, 85% of their entire company's revenue came from just one customer, which is G42. It's a Microsoft backed company in the UAE. Now it's been working to diversify its customer base. Now G42 accounts for just 24% of its revenue last year, but the other 76% of that is still made up of just a few other companies like OpenAI. We're talking about these circular deals in the AI industry and just companies like CoreWeave or Cerebras relying on just a few companies, companies, just a few hyperscalers for their particular revenue, then this is something that concerns investors. It didn't concern them on day one.
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It's certainly a company though that has interest in the AI space because back in December, Nvidia paid $20 billion for a startup called Grok, not Elon Musk. Grok. It's Groq. Their chips very closely resemble Cerebras. And again, I said they're big chips. This is kind of a area where the industry is curious about. It's like what if we just made everything a lot bigger? Does that increase inference speeds? Does it make things more efficient? So $100 billion versus $20 billion. Clearly there's a lot of money and a lot of interest in this big old chip chip game.
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And by chips we mean, wait for that's about the size of a picture book.
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Yeah. So that's not that big.
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I mean, that's what's considered a big chip in this industry. Four trillion transistors, though I can't even.
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That's.
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That boggles the mind.
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Moving on. Instagram famously copied Snapchat stories back in the day. Now it's coming for the rest of the app's functionality to Metta unveiled Instance this week, which lets you send unedited disappearing photos to your friends. As the name would suggest, this promotes ephemeral photo sharing, giving users a chance to break from the polished IG esthetic to share more raw moments. Close Friends has also been a big success on Instagram, and Instance lets you lean into the shrinking of your social graph from everyone who's ever follows you to. To just the people you want to see your stuff. Neal. I'll also read what Wired had to say in their article, and I quote, it's probably where your horny friends will post spicy pics. So there's that too.
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Couldn't be me. Yeah. One thing that people may want to know is that when you go to Instance and you tap the shutter button, that photo is automatically captured and sent to your friends. So there's no lag time between like, okay, I want to tap this button and then I will pose for a photo. It literally is. It instantly takes it and then sends it to your friends list. So just be aware that if you want to do send and send an instant horny or otherwise, you should just be careful. And that's led a lot of people to look up, hey, how do I delete this? Or how do I remove this from Instagram? And you can do that by just going to Settings and under your Settings and Content preferences tabs, you can just toggle it off. But yes, this is a bet by Instagram, which has certainly moved towards influencers and people that you don't know showing you content and a lot of of ads moving towards the bereal Snapchat side of things, which is more authentic and ephemeral content. And Instagram has just been copying snaps playbook to great success for many years now. Finally, I want to introduce you to the most hated man in America, a tourist on vacation in Hawaii. Igor Litvinchuk has been arrested after he was caught on video hurling a rock from a beach toward an endangered Hawaiian monk seal named Lonnie. The video went viral on social media and sparked deep anger across Hawaii and especially in Maui, where Lonnie was viewed as a symbol of rebirth. Following the devastating Lahaina fires a few years ago, Livinchuk is taken into custody near Seattle and charged with harassing a protected animal. It seems he's not particularly worried about the consequences. According to the complaint, when a witness confronted the man after he threw the rock at Lonnie, he said, quote, he did not care and was rich enough to pay any fines.
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This video just sparked rage across the Internet because it taps into the resentment towards. There's wealthy people kind of treating beautiful places like Hawaii like their personal playground. It's also just not a random animal to locals. It was named, it represents a lot to them. And then also it kind of speaks to the modern viral accountability machine, which sometimes has very negative consequences. The fact that there's an iPhone that could film you at any moment and then post you online sometimes, you know, gets people in trouble, but also sometimes brings, you know, justice because 50 years ago, we never would have known what this guy did. So just the perfect modern encapsulation of so many different things in one, you know, 10 second video that went very viral and sparked a lot of negative reactions.
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Yeah. As we were talking about this at the office yesterday, one of our coworkers said if you were trying to become the most hated man in America, you would take these exact steps that he did to, to do that. And, you know, that's what he accomplished.
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It was also the thing where I brought up the SEAL video and all these heads started turning towards us and like, o my gosh, did you see that? So it certainly is something that's making its way through the water cooler.
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That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful Friday and an even better weekend. But this isn't the last you might see of us today. If you find yourself twiddling your thumbs near the end of the workday or want a good pod for your evening commute, head to our YouTube channel for an awesome interview with tech reviewer Joanna Stern. It comes out this afternoon and contains so many good nuggets around consumer technology. If you'd like to send us a note, shoot an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom or DM us on Instagram @MB. Daily Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our supervising producer. Raymond Liu is our senior producer. Our producer is Olivia Graham, and our associate producer is Olivia Lake. Technical direction by Nita Miller. Hair and makeup is waiting in line at the Swatch store. Devin Emery is our president, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
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Great show. Today, Neil. I wish you all well. Sam.
Episode: Recapping Powell’s Turbulent Legacy & Fans Go Crazy Over Swatch Collab
Date: May 15, 2026
Hosts: Neal Freyman & Toby Howell
This Friday episode dives into major recent developments in business and economics, featuring the end of Jerome Powell’s historic tenure as Federal Reserve Chair and the surprising Swatch x Audemars Piguet watch collaboration causing a frenzy in the fashion world. Other segments include analysis of tobacco industry wins, Honda’s first fiscal loss in 70 years, the massive public debut of chipmaker Cerebras, fresh Instagram features, and the strange saga of a tourist who became America’s "most hated man" after harming a beloved Hawaiian monk seal.
[02:40 – 08:27]
[08:27 – 12:01]
[12:01 – 16:03]
[17:36 – 21:20]
[21:20 – 27:43]
“For every detractor, for every… person who praises Powell, you can find a data point corresponding to whatever camp you fall in.”
— Toby [05:15]
“That video... was just absolutely shocking where he just stood up in that room, couple minute video saying that he's under investigation. It's directly because he wasn't lowering interest rates like President Trump wanted.”
— Neal [07:12]
“It was so spectacularly unexpected that less than a week ago, absolutely no one... could have possibly believed such a collab would ever happen. It's like Erewhon teaming up doing a pop up store with Walmart.”
— Quoting a watch analyst, Neal [09:53]
“It invested billions of dollars in battery plants... But like a Tinder profile with only fish pics, demand never quite materialized.”
— Toby [17:36]
“It's probably where your horny friends will post spicy pics. So there's that too.”
— Wired quoted by Toby [24:44]
This episode deftly balances wit and insight, offering a brisk yet comprehensive rundown of the week’s top stories across business, policy, and culture. It’s a must-listen for anyone seeking clarity and context on news affecting markets and beyond.