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RIP Party City & FAA Gets a Starlink Makeover?
00:29:47
The Party (City) is over & maybe its time for an upgrade, FAA?
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- [00:01]
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- [00:32]
Toby Howell
Good morning Brew Daily Show. I'm Toby Howell.
- [00:35]
Ann Berry
And I'm Ann Berry.
- [00:36]
Toby Howell
Today, Ukraine and the US have hashed out a deal to jointly develop the country's mineral deposits and Party City.
- [00:43]
Ann Berry
The party's over. Why? All its stores are shutting down.
- [00:46]
Toby Howell
It's Wednesday, February 26th. Let's ride.
- [00:54]
Ann Berry
So, Toby, before we start, the asteroid that was supposed to hit Earth in 2032 is absolutely not a threat anymore. Astronomers have said do not be concerned about the quote City killer flying space rock that was spotted in December and previously projected to have a 3% chance of hitting us. But after further observation, experts say we are no longer at risk. Which basically means, Toby, we're going to have to sit through the release of yet another Fast and Furious movie. Are you so grateful that this has happened?
- [01:23]
Toby Howell
I'm so grateful. On the one hand it is great news for the planet, but on the other hand, you are right. We're probably getting another Fast and Furious sequel. We're probably getting another live action remake of, you know, the Lion King. Basically, scientists were like if this was an impact or we would keep seeing the probability rise. But instead the opposite started to happen. As they observed it more, the probability, probability got lower and lower. It was fun while it lasted. I mean, it was fun to consider the idea of a city killer asteroid. I mean, I don't know, fun.
- [01:53]
Ann Berry
But fun is not the word.
- [01:55]
Toby Howell
It was exciting, you know, it added a little excitement to our life. But you know what? Those icloud storage payments are still going to hit next year. You know, nothing is coming to end it all. Now a word from our sponsor, LinkedIn Ads. And LinkedIn is a platform known for its tools that help you target by industry, role and company. But if you really think about it, that means its real benefit is all the wasteful stuff it can help you avoid.
- [02:17]
Ann Berry
It's a lot like going on a road trip. Yes, your GPS tells you where to go, but it also saves you boatloads of time by helping you avoid wrong turns. Same with LinkedIn ads.
- [02:27]
Toby Howell
Inefficient and wasteful targeting is the bane of any company's existence. There's nothing worse than your ads showing up in front of the wrong people.
- [02:34]
Ann Berry
If I saw an ad for industrial equipment, for example, that wouldn't make much sense.
- [02:38]
Toby Howell
Oh come on. And you could totally whip around a forklift.
- [02:41]
Ann Berry
Luckily, LinkedIn ads make it so I'd actually never have to. Toby I would never get targeted with something that doesn't match my industry or role.
- [02:49]
Toby Howell
LinkedIn ads great for efficiency, bad for expanding your vehicular knowledge. If you're interested in testing out LinkedIn ads, LinkedIn will give you a 100 DOL credit on your next campaign. Just go to LinkedIn.com/MBD. That's LinkedIn.com/MBD. Terms and conditions apply only on LinkedIn ads. Ukraine and the US reportedly reached an agreement yesterday over access to the country's deposits of rare earth minerals as the two work towards a cease fire deal with Russia. The deal, which is expected to be signed Friday, will see Ukraine develop their mineral resources, including oil and gas, with the help from the US this framework replaces earlier US demands for a $500 billion payout, but is still seen as a way for the US to get a return on its investment in Ukraine while potentially opening up access to lucrative mineral deposits. Notably, though, this draft does not include the security guarantees that Ukraine had been pushing for, though US Officials have said that an economic agreement like this provides a de facto security shield against Russia. More details on the agreement, notably the size of the US Stake in the joint ownership fund, are still unclear, but Zelensky is expected to travel to the White House to sign the deal in the in a few days time. But and by removing some of the more excessive demands, like the request that Ukraine pay back the United States twice the amount on any future American aid, it appears that a deal did get across the finish line, one that gives the US a share of Ukraine's mineral wealth and boosts its reconstruction efforts.
- [04:18]
Ann Berry
Yeah, this is, this is an interesting one, Toby and I, I thought about this. Basically it feels as though the US Is getting the Ukraine to set up what's essentially a sovereign wealth fund, except one in which the U.S. owns, quote, the maximum financial interest allowed under American law. We don't know how much that is actually going to be, but I was listening to you and one of the key things that struck me was the line that you had in there, which is there are no security guarantees. The US Is not saying we're going to come to the Ukraine's rescue if Something happens again. And I, I just wanted to flag something that happened on Monday, actually. The US Actually joined Russia to vote against the United Nations General assembly resolution condemning that would have condemned Russia's war against the Ukraine and said Russia is the aggressor. The US did not join that, which was a really, really pivotal moment the day before this deal got signed. So the security situation here still to me, remains in flux.
- [05:13]
Toby Howell
Yeah, all this is happening too, while Russia is trying to court American companies to return to the country as well. Before the US Actually final finalized this natural resources deal with Ukraine, Putin said on Monday that American companies could benefit from the critical minerals, mining and aluminum production projects in Russia. So they were doing a courtship as well. But one thing that we have to talk about here is, does Ukraine even have any valuable deposits of these minerals? The US Geological Survey doesn't actually list the country as holding any reserves of these rare ear minerals. Neither do databases commonly used by mining businesses. And also, if you just look at total rare earth production, you don't get anywhere close to that $500 billion number that, you know, Trump was originally throwing out. Rare earth production is closer to $15 billion a year, which is equal to the value of just two days of global oil output. So who knows how valuable these resources actually are. That being said, though, there is a very strategic reason why the US Is interested in rare earth deposits in Ukraine, because right now, who controls the majority of that market? It is China. And obviously that exposes us to our geopolitical rival. China is the main market for both mining them, but also refining those rare earth minerals. So you can see why there is interest from the US to, you know, tap into these potential. Who knows how big these deposits actually are in Ukraine.
- [06:38]
Ann Berry
Yeah, and let's talk about what those rare earth minerals actually are. We're talking about graphite and we're talking about lithium. Both of them really important for use in electric vehicle production. And we're also talking about titanium, which is the very lightweight metal used in the construction of things like planes and power stations. So when you bring it all together, you know, these are really highly sought after, particularly in the shift towards alternative technologies. So to your point, whether this is a play about China, whether it's a play about just meeting increasing demand, fascinating. For our next story, totally different note, Toby, Party City, the one stop celebration shop for everything from balloons to pinatas to Halloween costumes, is shutting its doors for good. Now, the company has filed for bankruptcy twice in the last two years, once in 2023, and then again this past December. And at the end of 2024, they finally made the call to close down all 800 of their locations for good, with their last day of operations being this Friday, February 28th. Now, as the party giant closes its doors, retailers like Five Below and Dollar Tree are eyeing up their real estate, looking to get major discounts. Party City isn't the only one. Joanne Fabrics is another company closing all of its doors after filing for bankruptcy again in January, the second time within a year, with the retailer citing slowing consumer demand and struggles with inventory. Now, Toby, some are calling it a retail apocalypse, a little bit like an asteroid, for example, hitting the retail sector with the losses of these storefronts. So, but what exactly is going on here? Why is this happening? Why is it happening now?
- [08:12]
Toby Howell
I mean, for Party City, it is just the usual suspect inflation sisting made it harder for, you know, their core customer base to go shop. Their E commerce obviously is the preferred shopping mechanism of the majority of people now. And just physical retail locations are expensive and it just isn't the business model that works in the modern world that well. That being said, I do want to talk about the people who are, you know, curiously looking at all of Party City's locations right now. You mentioned them, Five Below and Dollar Tree, these are essentially scavengers who are looking at a fellow struggling retailer and going, licking their chops and saying, wait, I want to get into your locations for cheap. And Party City is pretty desperate right now because they are telling the court they have this urgent need to close these transactions because they cannot provide and continue paying the rent on their existing locations. So they are saying, like, hey, we're not getting a great deal here. I mean, five below deals would include giving them 44 storefronts in exchange for $2 million in upfront payments plus an additional $70,000 for each lease agreement signed. So it's not like this big lucrative agreement. Those locations are probably worth more than, you know, 5 below is paying. But these other retailers are just saying this is our opportunity to get into these locations for cheap. And that's why we're kind of scavenging over the body of Party City right now.
- [09:33]
Ann Berry
It's really interesting, Toby, as you talk about that, do you remember everyone was talking about what's going to happen with physical stores? Are they just going to go away? Is this why malls feel like they're on the decline? Right. So the fact that anyone is turning up and saying, I want to take over these locations, I found that sort of interesting.
- [09:49]
Toby Howell
Yeah, it's true. I think they're just seeing a really good deal out there for them. And then let's talk about Joanne's a little bit. It's really sad. Pour one out for the craft store. I think crafters out there just have a soft spot for Joanne's and it was actually they almost were they suffered from their own success because during the pandemic they had this huge boost in sales because everyone was just stuck at home, you know, knitting, crocheting. I'm sure I took up calligraphy.
- [10:12]
Ann Berry
I was going to ask we yeah.
- [10:13]
Toby Howell
I took up calligraphy. And so it just struggled to maintain that momentum. It struggled with its inventory management, just supply chain disruptions as well and just a shifting, you know, consumer taste. So pour one out for Party City. Pour one out for Joanne's. The one thing I will say is that franchisees that represent Party City are are saying that they still plan to run their stores. So for the foreseeable future you might see a few Party City locations hanging on because their franchise franchisees are like we can continue to operate these profit profitably. So it's not like Party said it will be wiped from the face of the earth. You still might see a couple locations dotting around the country.
- [10:52]
Ann Berry
Still need to keep looking out for this. Toby. It feels like Joanne stores and Party City is not where it's going to end. Bloomberg reported that Forever 21 is rumored to file for bankruptcy next month. We saw the Container store go under it since emerging. We know that True Value Hardware also filed for bankruptcy. Billabong and Quicksilver stores apparently now rumored to be thinking about disappearing. So one, we got to keep watching the graveyard of retail stores.
- [11:15]
Toby Howell
Remember when everyone feared that Elon Musk might use his position in the government to enrich his own businesses? Well, those conflicts of interest are conflicting. After the FAA came to an agreement to use Space X's Starlink Internet systems to upgrade the IT network it uses to manage US Airspace. The FA announced this week that it is testing out a few Starlink terminals. One in New Jersey at the FAA's Air Traffic Control Technology Lab and two in what it called a non safety critical location in Alaska. But the FAA's experimentation could quickly grow. According to Bloomberg, Musk approved a shipment of 4,000 Starlink terminals to the FAA last week for this initiative. And on the one hand, this is exactly what people are worried about when it comes to Elon's proximity to the White House. But on the other hand, Starlink could very well provide an improvement to the FAA's aging airspace network, something that has been a priority for years now.
- [12:10]
Ann Berry
It has been. But let's talk about this conflict of interest piece of it and how that could really influence how this issue is being solved. The FAA does, in fact have a contract, right, with Verizon that is designed to upgrade its information technology. So what's a little unclear to me at the moment is this Dalek swooping in and displacing Verizon. Is this a Unclear. But this is what everyone feared, Toby, that Elon would get under the hood, would poke around, would see perhaps what the margins, what the pricing is on these, and go and usurp some of these providers. Again, unclear that's happening here, but the optics of this, I think quite difficult.
- [12:47]
Toby Howell
For sure, you put it very well. I do think Verizon is a little bit nervous here because they were awarded this $2 billion contract just a few years ago in 2023 to support the FAA. A Verizon exec was asked about this and he said that he does think that their network could coexist with Starlink. Starlink could fill in some of the gaps that, you know, this deal doesn't. Who knows if that's just him posturing and saying, oh, no, I think we're fine here, or if he's actually a lot more nervous about that. But yes, obviously this extends Musk's reach into the faa, which is, you know, the body that regulates Space X rocket launches. That's another bit of the conflict of interest here. That being said, though, I mean, I mentioned it. No one is disputing that the FAA systems need an upgrade. They've been attempting to modernize their air traffic controller network for years now. If you go Back to a 2023 survey, the US Government Accountability Office found 76% of the systems that the FAA uses were either unsustainable or potentially unsustainable. It warned back in December that the agency needed to take urgent action to update them. And then obviously, the recent air incidents that have occurred this year, the one in D.C. have put an even bigger spotlight on these systems. So, on the one hand, yes, conflict of interest. But on the other hand, no one is saying that the FAA shouldn't try to make steps towards updating its IT infrastructure.
- [14:09]
Ann Berry
This news about Starlink in the FAA is coming hot off the back of news about the Delta plane flipping in Toronto, a near miss of a Southwest Airlines plane at Chicago Midway. Just this week, we had this terrible tragedy of the fatal crash of a military helicopter and a regional jet. As you mentioned at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. Nobody wants conflict of interest. Nobody wants an unelected institution sort of going around and looking at what's happening in terms of government spend. But nobody wants these tragedies happening either. And this to me is the essence of the conundrum that is Elon Musk and what's going on right now. And it's just really difficult to talk about.
- [14:48]
Toby Howell
Up next, we're talking Venmo so Neil, how'd you do on the Morning Market Trivia quiz?
- [14:56]
Neil
I got 3432, which put me at number 14 on the leaderboard. Last time I checked, that's pretty good.
- [15:03]
Toby Howell
I ended up getting 3133. I wonder how the rest of our listener scores compared to ours?
- [15:08]
Neil
Well, they can find out when they take the quiz. Head over to morning brew.commorning-market trivia to put your trading knowledge to the test and see how you stack up. It takes only a few minutes to complete, but be mindful of the time because speed contributes to your overall score.
- [15:24]
Toby Howell
And if you land at the top, you'll win bragging rights, a $200Amex gift card, a newsletter feature, and a special prize. It's a win win.
- [15:32]
Neil
Have fun and good luck. We'll see you on the leaderboard.
- [15:35]
Toby Howell
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- [16:34]
Ann Berry
Toby Something happened yesterday for the first time in four years. Can you guess what it was?
- [16:39]
Toby Howell
I touched my toes for the first time.
- [16:41]
Ann Berry
Did you really?
- [16:42]
Toby Howell
Yeah.
- [16:42]
Ann Berry
I still can't do That I still can't. That's really big news and you completely overshadowed. What I was going to say was no. PayPal had an investor day, which I know was going to be your, your second guess. It was a pretty big deal, Toby. The company is in the midst of a turnaround with new leadership and it shared a vision to get Venmo on track to $2 billion in revenue by 2027. Which by the way, the last time PayPal shared a rev number for Venmo was in 2021 and that was 900 million. Now, PayPal has struggled to define itself in recent years and saw their market cap dwindle by 80% while it faced competition from the likes of Zelle, Apple Pay and. But now the company is saying that Venmo will move forward from peer to peer transactions to quote, becoming the Go to Money movement app with features like gig economy pay deposited into accounts, marketing a debit card for in store purchases, and encouraging stores to use pay with Venmo. Now, Toby, I mean, this was a lot to take in, but what were your biggest takeaways from these PayPal announcements?
- [17:41]
Toby Howell
I think PayPal just wants Venmo to grow up a little bit. Venmo is big, don't get me wrong. I mean, 90 million US users, it's a verb. You say, I'll Venmo you. It's been a cultural statement staple for years, but monetization has always been a challenge because most transactions that happen on Venmo generate very little revenue from the company. They do think they can get to that $2 billion number. But you're right, PayPal has been absolutely going through it recently like its market cap has just taken a massive hit. Even though Venmo is a verb, it's not unimpeachable. You're right. Cash app, Sell, Apple Pay, these have all been gaining ground on it through just, you know, sometimes things as simple as bank integrations. But also they have maybe a wider range of financial services than Venmo has. So that yesterday PayPal was trying to outline its strategies to position Venmo as not just a default app for these peer to peer transaction, not just sending your buddy $5 after, you know, split a pizza together, but for spending, for saving, for becoming what the company described as the Go to Money movement app.
- [18:45]
Ann Berry
It's actually really interesting that there was a much bigger strategy that extended beyond Venmo. I, I actually went and I downloaded the 224 page investor presentation last night and I went through it. And the thing that was so captivating to me was the sheer size of opportunity that PayPal has completely failed to tap until now. So let me give you some of these numbers. I'm a data nerd. The offline payments market still, right, is apparently a 200 billion dollar opportunity of which PayPal in total has less than 1% share. The ads and commerce and credit revenue market is an 800 billion dollar opportunity of which it has less than 1% share. So this investor presentation talked a huge amount about. For example, I've got both a PayPal account and a Venmo account. I don't know if you've got both, Toby.
- [19:32]
Toby Howell
I got both.
- [19:33]
Ann Berry
They want you to be able to see both in the same place and then you can customize and personalize and they'll push a bunch of ads to you and they'll tell you what subscriptions you've got. So this vision for a one stop shop was bigger and I actually thought pretty interesting.
- [19:45]
Toby Howell
Yeah. And I do think one critical element too is getting more merchants to sign up for the platform as well. Because how many places do you go to and you see pay with Venmo, it's not like the first option that a lot of people choose, but they get greater business by having more merchants on their platform because higher transaction volume means more profit. And then also they want to increase the likelihood that you know, people will carry a balance in their Venmo account because the company does earn interest on users account balances. So these are all things that they just want to grow the transaction pie here beyond again just sending money back and forth between your friend group. They want you to show up to a store and you know, buy something with Venmo. They want you to use your Venmo debit card. They want you to use this product in ways beyond the way that most people are currently using it.
- [20:35]
Ann Berry
Including by the way going deeper into buy now, pay later. If you think about it and to your point, the business opportunities big, they're in about 20 million small and medium sized businesses right now. A total of 430 million consumer and merchant accounts. Number one, the amount of data, can you imagine the amount of data that these guys have had? They've been around for a long time.
- [20:56]
Toby Howell
I mean, you say you're a data nerd. PayPal as well, you're absolutely right on that front.
- [21:01]
Ann Berry
Even more so. Just one last note on that. Interestingly, the share price ticked down a little bit after it popped up and then came back down. So we're not sure if the market's buying it we'll have to keep watching that share price price.
- [21:11]
Toby Howell
Now let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines you may have missed. Up first, President Trump announced a new gold card program yesterday offering wealthy foreigners a path to citizenship for the low price of $5 million. This initiative is set to replace the existing EB Dash 5 visa program and aims to attract high net worth individuals from around the world who could provide a boost to the US Economy. Trump also speculated about how much revenue the sales themselves could generate if 1 million people decided they wanted a gold card. That is $5 trillion in revenue right there. 10 million people and suddenly the national debt is gone. Obviously those numbers are speculation at this point, but the idea is to attract job creators and high level global talent while generating revenue for the United States in the process.
- [21:58]
Ann Berry
You know, the thing that sprung to mind as you were speaking, Toby, was taxes, which seems a bit of a non sequitur, but I'll explain what I mean by that. The kinds of people who can afford to drop 5 million bucks on a Visa are typically the kinds of people who want to go live in Monaco and not pay any taxes. So I do wonder a little bit about what this means for the overall package to try and attract these folks. I'm not completely sold that the national debt is going to be wiped out.
- [22:22]
Toby Howell
I mean, I guess the idea is one, you generate revenue from people buying, you know, $5 million path to citizenship. But then also those people are taxpayers when they come in and, you know, come live in the United States. This also is just kind of a continuation or just like a reformulation of this EB5 program that I spoke about. That program was founded all the way back in 1992. It grants green cards to immigrants in the United States who make a minimum investment of $1 million or $800,000 if they're in these economically distressed zones. So this is kind of like a rebranding of that program. It's just like this direct cash payment instead of, you know, that million dollar investment jacks up the dollar amount a little bit, but it is semi a continuation of that EB5 or a replacement of that program.
- [23:08]
Ann Berry
Moving on, Toby, let's talk about Home Depot, which is back on the winning side as it snaps its losing streak of eight straight quarters of declines with a 0.8%, just a little bit of growth last quarter. Now, many look at Home Depot as an indicator of how consumers feel about spending on housing more broadly and on financing big ticket purchases. High interest rates, of course, have dampered folks ability to buy new homes. And homeowners are reluctant to move when they've got a nice low mortgage that they locked in during the height of the pandemic. But this is a welcome positive sign for the home improvement industry. So, Toby, given how upbeat Home Depot was in its forecast for 2025, are we going to see you now running on out there doing a little bit of a birthday purchase of a new apartment?
- [23:54]
Toby Howell
I mean, I don't know if I have the diy, you know, ability to upgrade an apartment purchase like that. I do think that this is a interesting indicator for the economy because if you just go back to last week, Walmart actually warned that 2025 would be this pretty rocky year ahead, expected sales to slow down. But then here is Home Depot coming in and saying, actually we're seeing some, you know, cracks in this kind of long, dark night. And the housing market that we've been seeing for a while now. So you're seeing a little bit of differing opinions on the year ahead because Home Depot is that bellwether of the US Housing market and the economy writ large. So I do think it's interesting to see both these bellwethers. We talked about Wal Mart as a bellwether. Home Depot's this other bellwether. We'll see whether the one bellwether is, you know, a better indicator than the other.
- [24:45]
Ann Berry
You know, historically, people would spend money when they were moving. I wonder if this is like people are saying rates are going to be stay, saying high forever. We're not moving. I may as well renovate what I got.
- [24:53]
Toby Howell
It's true. I mean, I got nothing right now, so I got nothing to renovate. But I think you're absolutely right on that point. Apple isn't hopping on the anti D I bandwagon. Shareholders have overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to end the company's diversity, equity and inclusion efforts during their annual meeting yesterday. The proposal was submitted by the national center for Public Policy Research, a conservative think tank, and aimed to pressure Apple into joining other major companies in scaling back their DEI programs due to litigation, reputational and financial risks. But Apple's board of directors had recommended shareholders vote against the request, calling it unnecessary. And Apple is zigging when a lot of the corporate world is zagging when it comes to dei.
- [25:36]
Ann Berry
That's right, Toby. What a lot of them are pointing to is they're just not really clear what the legal landscape is. They're trying. They're trying whether they should or not. They're trying to stand, stay away from the sort of ethical debate around this. And they're saying the. The legal landscape is what we're trying to figure out. Costco, by the way, also shareholders rejected has voted against a proposal to to water down its DE&I initiative. So look, I think this is going to continue to be mixed. We'll have to see again what this legal language turns out to be.
- [26:01]
Toby Howell
Finally, more than 60,000 DoorDash workers may be eligible for a nice little payday after an investigation found the company who shuttles your burritos around was using customer tips to subsidize worker wages. Between 2017 and 2019, if a worker was supposed to be compensated $10 on a delivery, but a customer tipped $3, DoorDash would only sell over $7, using the tip to cover the difference. That shady practice was eventually uncovered and stopped, but only after 11 million orders were placed. Now, thanks to a settlement from the New York attorney general's office, DoorDash is shelling out $17 million to New York based workers, meaning the payout could be up to $14,000 per person. And do you remember when this news broke back in 2019 that DoorDash was doing this?
- [26:47]
Ann Berry
Yeah. And I think people were really upset about it. And you know, this feels like a good outcome. Do you remember it also actually paved. Paved the way for a whole different debate around, like Uber drivers. Like the whole gig economy feels like it's still in flux. So this is one data point. I'm sure it'll keep changing.
- [27:01]
Toby Howell
Yeah, I remember in 2019, CEO of DoorDash said, we thought we were doing the right thing by making dashers whole when a customer left no tip. What we miss was that some customers who did tip would feel like their tip did not matter. So DoorDash said that their heart was in the right place. But I remember when this came out, everyone's like, wait, you're using my tip to subsidize worker wages? This is what you're supposed to be paying the company. My tip is supposed to be a tip. It's supposed to be gravy on the top of it. So this is a settlement that, you know, tracks back to that time period, 2017 to 2019. But it is DoorDash making, you know, their workers whole in this regard. That is all the time we have for today. And thanks again for joining me. It is always a pleasure. Let's roll these credits. Emily Miller and is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Eugeniogu is our technical director. Scoops Dardus is on audio hair and makeup is buying all the balloons from Party City and inhaling the helium out of them. It's always fun. Devin Every is our chief copy content officer in our show's production of Morning Brew.
- [28:04]
Ann Berry
Great show today, Toby. See you all tomorrow.