B (3:39)

I just want to take a quick walk down memory lane here and go through the examples of policy whiplash that we've all been experiencing over the past few months. Liberation Day tariffs were announced with great fanfare. Then they were paused and they were revised. And they were revised again. By the estimation of one New York Times columnist, the effective tariffs rate has changed more than 60 times since Trump returned to office. So this is the culmination of a long and winding road that also represents a new road because we have the $170 billion question to answer. That being said, you mentioned that a new tariff rate was already slapped on much of the world. There are a lot of alternative legal pathways that the President is absolutely going to look at. There's section 122, which is what you were mentioning of the Trade act of 1974 that allows tariffs of up to 15% but of a duration of only 150 days. There's section 301 tariffs and section 232 tariffs. There will be a quiz on this after the show that that allow you to target unfair trade practices. Those are more legally sound but take longer to carry Out. The general vibe here though is this fight is not over and in some ways is just beginning.

A (4:53)

Yeah, you said culmination. I don't know if that's right true at all. Because section 122, yes, you can, you can impose up to 50% tariffs for 100 days, but that is probably going to face some core challenges as well because that is on some legal shaky footing. It's supposed to deal with a balance of payments deficits that the US has with, with the rest of the world, not a trade deficit. The US does not have any balance of payment deficits with the rest of the world because that's just a broader concept of, of trade. It deals with all economic activity the United States does with the rest of the world. So expect legal challenges there. Let's talk about refunds. Yes, the US has collected $170 billion through these tariffs that were just struck down. What happens? Well, the Supreme Court just punted the decision. They said we're not going to deal with this lower court. You figure out how this happens. Kavanaugh called it a mess. And even during oral arguments back in the fall when this was happening, they all the justices said, yes, if we strike this down, it's going to be complete chaos. That doesn't stop companies from trying to get to the front of the line to get tariffs if, or to get refunds if they do come down the pipe. Over 1500 companies, including Big names like Costco, have already sued to get to the front of the line to make sure they get the refunds when, if, how they should come. But yeah, that if there are, if there are refunds, we have no idea how they be handed out or when.

B (6:17)

One quirk of those lawsuits that you mentioned though. You mentioned Costco as a big retailer, but a lot of other major retailers kind of sat this one out. They were not leading the charge. I'm thinking of Amazon in a Walmart who essentially decided that it was in it was their best interest to not alienate the president by trying to get in line for these tariff refunds versus actually they're almost willing to eat it in order to stay in good graces. So that was a quirk that most of the cases that reached the Supreme Court level were brought by smaller companies, smaller importers. So that's just one thing to keep an eye on. The the fact though, that these companies may return some of this money to their balance sheet is what prompted Treasury Secretary Scott Bent to say that a corporate boondoggle may be on the horizon. Because if you know, all this money does go back to these companies. That's all gravy, baby. I mean, this is revenue that they did not think that they were going to have. This was money that they thought went out the door. If that does come back, you could see a nice, you know, bump in corporate earnings, especially around some major retailers.

A (7:19)

And then the final aspect of all this is what happens to all of the trade deals that the Trump administration inked as a result of these tariffs. Those are also thrown into uncertainty. The EU, already yesterday, after the Supreme Court struck down the tariff, said, well, we made a, we made a agreement with the United States, but right now we're not going to finalize that because we don't have any clarity on what's going on with the United States trade policy. The chairman of the EU's trade committee said pure customs chaos on the part of the US Government is just standard practice now. So they are not going to finalize this particular trade agreement. And also in India, officials said for similar reasons that they're postponing talks in the US on finalizing this trade agreement. So going forward, we have a whole new bout of uncertainty due to the Supreme Court rejecting tariffs. Trump's going to try to put 15% tariffs on the rest of the world. But all of these agreements and the refunds are still a huge question mark.

B (8:22)

Moving on. Hope you were wearing easy to slip on and off shoes if you were traveling this weekend because TSA was flip flopping all over the place. The DHS threw travelers for a loop by announcing it would pause TSA Precheck and Global entry starting Sunday morning, citing a lapse in funding and the need to refocus personnel on the majority of travelers. But before you could remove your laptop in 3.4 ounce liquids, the decision was reversed, with a spokesperson saying at this time, TSA Precheck remains operational with the organization monitoring certain airports to see if staffing constraints arise. This, of course, was happening right as a once in a generation winter storm was hitting the East Coast. The ingredients for the worst travel weekend in recent memory were downstream of a partial government shutdown that began on Valentine's Day. Congress was unable to reach a deal on legislation to fund the Department of Homeland and Security, which oversees the tsa, which dragged the agency into an unwanted political kerfuffle. Airlines for America, a trade group representing major carriers, said it's deeply concerned that the traveling public will be once again used as a political football amid another government shutdown. Neil, I'm currently stuck in St. Louis, Missouri, and I feel a bit like a football right now. Such a messy weekend.

A (9:38)

Okay, On a practical level, this makes no sense if you're trying to get the most bang out of your buck. For TSA agents, shutting down Precheck is essentially the complete opposite of what, what you want to do because it allows for fewer staff to make it work. It disperses the lines where it's just easier to check in people and get them through security. And then we talk about global entry. It's almost all fully automated. So observers looking at this, from Democrats to Republicans to the airline industry to the travel industry, are we're looking at the TSA decision, especially because it came down at such a last minute, didn't give anybody time to prepare, and saying this, this makes no sense. And once again, the, the travel industry feels like, yes, it is a political football. Anytime there is a government shutdown, it feels like TSA agents, who we should mention are not being paid right now. They're, they're expected to get their first paycheck a week from Friday or miss their first paycheck a week from Friday. They're not being paid. So the travel industry is sort of complaining and saying, why are we always on the front lines of these political wranglings? And especially when you do something like threaten to sh. Precheck and send airports back into chaos. You know, they are, they are pretty tired of it.

B (10:50)

They're right. It is definitely a political play because it does make no sense to, you know, expedite travel by canceling. The thing that did expedite travel that did was more efficient. I mean, we've been through TSA PreCheck lines. It's pretty good. So both sides are trying to pin this travel pain on the other. In this instance, it is a big deal to shut down TSA PreCheck, though. Remember, this is the program. It costs about 75 to $85 a year. It has more than 20 million active members. And according to research, pre check members accounted for 34% of passengers screened at airport checkpoints. So this is a wide ranging program. It used to be kind of like a fun thing a couple of years ago where you felt like you were beating the system. Now it's very much a de facto part of traveling. So to shut that down even briefly affected a lot of people.

A (11:41)

Well, maybe we didn't tell you, teach you anything in the last story, but in this story, maybe you learned that the government is partially shut down, because I don't think a lot of. Of people know that. At least DHS is not being funded. It's not very clear when, you know, Congress, the two sides are, are very far apart on this, you know, ICE spending issue. And hopefully. And what may happen ultimately is that TSA workers, whether PreCheck is open or not, will start calling out of work like they have done during the last couple of shutdowns that's led to a faster resolution. And the travel industry is saying, please, can we resolve this as fast as possible? Because the shutdown last fall, which was the longest in history, caused losses of $6.1 billion across the travel industry and related sectors. So they are saying, congress, get your butt back to D.C. which might be a little difficult today, but eventually do that and figure out a compromise so we can start paying our workers again.

B (12:37)

Yeah, you're right. This shutdown is a lot narrower, though, because it only is impacting an estimated 13% of the civilian federal workforce. And again, a lot of those visible effects have been limited because, you know, 90% of DHS employees are deemed essential. So they're going to work anyway. So this is not the government shutdown of, you know, months pass, but still it is a partial shutdown.

A (12:59)

Welcome to Winners of the Weekend, the segment where we pick two things that watched Miracle and got really fired up. I won the pre show pillow fight, so I got to go first. And my winner is the Olympics. After more than a decade of dwindling relevance, the global sports extravaganza has gotten its mojo back. After an epic two weeks in northern Italy, which for a brief moment brought the world and our country together during a tumultuous time, the Games wrapped up yesterday with an instantly legendary wrist shot off of Jack Hughes's stick. The American men's hockey team defeated Canada in overtime for their first gold medal since the Miracle on ice in 1980, and only two days before, the USA women's team also clinched the gold with an OT win over Canada. Canada. The Olympics renaissance truly started in Paris two years ago, where the joyful Summer Games posted an 82% viewership increase over the prior Summer Olympics in Tokyo. And the momentum continued in Milan Cortina, which was on pace to nearly double the TV audience from Beijing four years ago. In Italy, everything seemed to align for the Olympics and NBC, which spent $1 billion to broadcast the Games. The scandals were petty and captivating as anything you'd see on Bravo. The star power undeniable, the drama at a fever pitch, and NBC's production innovative and nearly flawless. All this despite the Winter Games, featuring obscure, quirky sports that few people watch. Or participate in outside of the Olympics. Toby, when the full viewership data rolls in, we're going to see some massive numbers. It is full steam ahead for Los Angeles in 2028.

B (14:27)

I think two things sum up this Olympics. Great vibes and just so, so messy. First, we'll start with the vibes. I think it was encapsulated by the fact that NBC decided not to air commercials during yesterday's USA Canada hockey final. That was a crazy decision because if you go back to 2002 and the two countries face off for gold in Salt Lake City, 17.1 million viewers, eight years later in Vancouver, 27.6 million viewers. So that was a lot of revenue that they were potentially sacrificing in order to, you know, bring the best broadcast viewing experience possible. And thank God they did, because that game was very fun. But then I also have to talk about the messiness, because it was the fun type of messiness. The type, right. That very casual sports fan. Love it. Getting into it. I mean, you likened it to Bravo. And I think that is a perfect analogy. By the way, everyone from the Olympics scandals did great at the Olympics. This comes courtesy of Roger Sherman on X. He pointed this out. He said the Canada, Canada curling won gold after boop gate where they were touching, you know, the stone, the cheating confession biathlete won five medals. That's an underrated storyline. The credit card fraud biathlete, which we didn't even really touch on, but man, the biathletes are doing something crazy. She won three goals and then Norwegian crotch parachute ski jumper, one bronze. So Milan Cortina was messy, but thriving.

A (15:54)

Right. So let's talk about NBC's strategy because over the past few Olympics, they have have got this thing down really well to how they're going to broadcast the Games. First of all, I just want to say that we're looking at 82% viewership increase for the Summer Games in Paris, probably 100% for the winter Games in Italy over the previous Olympics. And I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that there's no Covid anymore. And the time zone is much better in for American viewership, at least in Europe, than in Asia. So there were some structural factors going into this Olympic viewership increase. But also NBC has just figured out how to put this thing on Peacock. They put all of the live events, every single one of them you can watch either on Peacock or Linear tv. So if you are free during the day, you're not working, you can put that up on your second monitor. And at the same time they have this beautifully produced program that starts at 8pm in prime time where they do the narrative storylines. They you learn about stars like Alyssa Liu and all the scandals that you mentioned, which were extremely petty and fun. So they've just kind of figured out how to do this Olympic thing in the streaming era and they're paying over $1 billion for this. But they're probably saying this is an incredible investment that we just made.

B (17:11)

And by the way, Team USA did well too, which brings in more eyeballs. They finished second in the medal table to the powerhouse that is Norway. I did find another interpretation of gold medals at the Olympics though, that I want to share with you. What if you counted every individual medal given out the Olympics? That means one for each member of a relay or each member of an ice hockey team. This is from an X account called Sickos Community. They did the math and wouldn't you know it, the United States actually won under this method with 93 total medals. Norway is in second with 58. So when you factor in every single medal hung on every single neck when it comes to winning hockey, obviously hockey is a massive, you know, contributor to that. So if you want to, you know, squint, maybe the United States won the medal count. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with my winner of the weekend.

A (18:06)

So good, so good, so good. New spring arrivals are at Nordstrom Rack stores. Now get ready to save big with up to 60% off rag and bone, Marc Jacobs, Free people and more.

B (18:18)

How did I not know Rack has Adidas?

A (18:20)

Because there's always something new. Join the Nordic Club to unlock exclusive discounts. Shop new arrivals first and more. Plus buy online and pick up at your favorite Rack store for free.

B (18:30)

Great brands, great prices.

A (18:32)

That's why you rack.

B (18:36)

Neil, I know you don't take investing seriously.

A (18:39)

You're right. I keep all my money inside my mattress.

B (18:42)

Don't be like Neil, whose door is almost always unlocked. Be like public.com users who take investing seriously. You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and more while accessing industry leading yields with a suite of fixed income products.

A (18:58)

And now with their new generated assets, you can turn any idea into an investable index with AI.

B (19:04)

Learn more at public.com/morning brew and you can earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com/morning brew paid for by Public Investing. Full Disclosure in Podcast Description Movement's not about numbers. It's about intention.

A (19:22)

Been reading those inspirational sports quotes again?

B (19:24)

Oh, every day. But I'm talking about things like our Davos trip or early call times. Basically daily essential movements that we could be more thoughtful about. Whoops.

A (19:33)

Wearable tech helps with that. With it, you can understand what's going on in your body and make better decisions. Whoop helps build awareness and highlights patterns so you can show up with more presence and intention.

B (19:42)

Turn data into meaningful everyday impact. Learn more at join.loop. that's join.whoop.com brew daily my winner of the weekend is people with good neck mobility because that neck mobility leads to better reversing while driving. That reversing leads to backing into parking spots. And according to new data, backing into sparking parking spots is on the rise. Long the stalwart parking method of dudes with lifted Tacomas, all demographics are seeing an uptick thanks to updated AAA guidelines. In 2020, the organization began promoting the backend method via a curriculum distributed to public and private driving schools nationwide. They framed it as a good idea from a safety perspective because the alternative method, pulling in then backing out, carries a higher crash risk. Ford Xs provide better visibility of cross traffic and pedestrians compared to whipping it out of a parking spot in reverse. The New York Times put forth another theory for why backing that thing up and in is popular right now. Anxiety. Given an overall rise in ambient social anxiety around things like gun violence, a Times reporter posits positioning for a quick exit may offer psychological comfort. One Texas based security training company recommends tactical parking, which encourages drivers to war game scenarios like what if I was being chased? Neil? This is a polarizing issue up there with pineapple on pizza because everyone has to reverse at some point. But when you do, it quickly devolves into a much larger debate on immediate ease versus later efficiency. The American public needs to know where you stand.

A (21:22)

What did you want to know? I'm not going to give it away yet. I want to do our due diligence and talk about the pros and cons of either backing in or pulling in forward. Okay, so the arguments for backing into a parking space, which is what AAA now recommends, it's essentially that it's safer when leaving, so you have full visibility when you're driving forward and leaving a parking spot. You're probably not going to hit as many people as you would if you back up. And also which is faster if you want to leave a place and you can understand that in an industrial place, a lot industrial site like a factory or any kind of place like that, they Actually do have rules that say if you drive here, you do have to back in because this plan could maybe explode at some point. So you need to be able to leave quickly. So I guess faster exit and safer exit are the arguments for backing in in the first place. And then the arguments against backing into a parking space is essentially it takes a lot longer and you are disrupting the track traffic flow because someone's coming behind you in a parking lot, then they have to wait till you do your whole thing to back into the parking spot. And it is not easy. Right. So parking spaces are much more narrower than highway lanes. They're about 7.5 to 8.5ft compared to highway lanes which are 12ft. So you're maybe, unless you're a really good backer inner, you're going to take your time doing that and that disrupts the whole flow. So that those are the main arguments. I won't tell you where I stand, but I think we should talk about the stereotype of the backer inner. And critics of the backer inner say that this is just a performance. This is a dominance ritual. Like I want everyone to here to think about the people who do back into parking spaces and see if there is a particular type of personality. Because I would say there is. I'm thinking about the people that I know who back in and I'm not going to call them out by name, but I would say it's absolutely some sort of performance or dominance ritual not

B (23:21)

to throw cold water on, you know, your dominance ritual here. Since 2018, all new vehicles sold in the US are federally required to have backup cameras, which actually narrows the delta on both those methods. You know, it is easier to back in. So maybe it's you're not blocking traffic as much as, you know, previous backer enters would. And then also when you're backing out, you're not running into as many cars and pedestrians because you also have a backup camera. So basically the safety difference between backing in and backing out gets narrower when you have better technology. So maybe this whole debate is moot thanks to the rise of backup cameras. But I do love the fact that some people told the New York Times in this article that the reason why I back in is because I hate my job and I just want to get out of there as soon as I can. You write there is this industrial exception as well. My method, because everyone is wondering what Toby Howell does, the man who doesn't own a car in New York City. I like the pull through method, which

A (24:21)

is the pull through is the best.

B (24:22)

The pull through is the best. When you have two parking spaces open, you know, nose to nose you just ease through the first one so you're technically have the pull out capabilities at the end without having to do the back end whatsoever.

A (24:34)

And I I love a pull through. I also am not a backer inner that I think that's crazy to hold up traffic to back in so you can leave five seconds earlier from the grocery store. I do think it is a show off method. I'm fully not a backer inner and I think those people are kind of crazy personally. And I'm sorry I waited to the entire segment to say that. Okay, finally it's Monday so here is what you need to know to stay ahead and the week ahead. Mexico is on knife's edge after government forces launched a raid that killed Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, the country's most powerful drug lord, leading to a flare up in violence in major Mexican cities and tourist hotspots. Known as the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Oseguera's gang is the top cocaine smuggler to the United states, and the US had a $15 million bounty on his head after Oseguero was killed. Armed groups set fire to buildings and cars blocking roads as the violence escalated. U.S. and Canadian airlines canceled or diverted flights to Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, and American tourists were told to shelter in place. Right.

B (25:36)

You mentioned the 15% bounty. According to the White House, US intelligence provided support in this mission that killed the drug lord that went by the name of El Mencho. So the US Was involved in some capacity, but really just hoping for the best for Mexican citizens caught up in this violence, as well as any tourists who are going to be affected as well.

A (25:55)

Tomorrow, President Trump will deliver his annual State of the Union address to the nation, where he's expected to focus on economic policies that aim to bring down prices. TBD on how much of the evening will resemble last year's address, which was chaotic. Trump spoke for 100 minutes, a Democratic representative got kicked out of the chamber, and a bunch of progressive lawmakers held up paddles that said things like musk steals and false, which were widely seen as cringe.

B (26:20)

This is also going to be an awkward say of the union. Fourth quarter GDP came in below expectations, so Trump won't be able to quite point to the economic growth he wants to. It's going to be happening amongst a partial government shutdown and of course the Supreme Court decision is not going to sit well with Trump at all. How about this for some Olympic level messiness. Supreme Court justices are likely to be in attendance and might sit in the front row. So what was already a high stakes State of the Union ahead of midterm elections will also have the haze of this Supreme Court tariff rebuke around it and maybe even some like WWE style call outs, you know, face to face.

A (26:56)

All right. It is a big week for earnings. It always is when Nvidia steps up to the plate and gives its quarterly state of AI update. Also reporting this week are Salesforce, which has been smacked like other software stocks and retailers, Home Depot, TJX and Lowe's who will discuss the impact of the tariff decision on their outlooks.

B (27:16)

I'm just going to try to predict the future here. Nvidia is going to beat earnings because it always does. But then Salesforce is also going to beat earnings and everyone's going to be confused because they thought that I was going to kill software companies. So who knows? I don't know what's going to happen. I can't predict the future.

A (27:31)

Knows. You were just like, here is exactly what's going on. I immediately. But who knows?

B (27:35)

I hedged my bets there. But that would be a funny, you know, one, two punch of saying maybe Salesforce is actually a very widely used software product and isn't going to be killed by some vibe coder in their basement. And software is going to be all right, or maybe it won't happen.

A (27:49)

We'll see.

B (27:50)

So both options, both options are on the table.

A (27:53)

Okay. Finally this week on TV Survivor 50, the 50th season of CBS's beloved reality show arrives on Wednesday and they have gone all out assembling an Avengers level cast of past stars who've appeared on the show, including White Lotus creator Mike White, Savannah Louie and Riz God. Survivors also put the season quote in the hands of the fans and has let viewers vote on key elements of the game like immunity idols.

B (28:19)

I think you would do very, very well because you have the baseline athleticism to, you know, do well in the immunity challenges. And I just think you would, you would play it a little bit more low key than I would. So.

A (28:31)

Right. You would give away the game too easily. You would, you would overthink it. You would be foaming at the mouth to win and everyone would recognize that and kick you off pretty early. But if you strain that impulse of yours, I think you could do well because you're just very tactical about it and in a way that I would not be. But yeah, maybe my low key chill vibes would just kind of simmer under the radar and I would, I would get to the end. Who knows? That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful start to your week. If you want to get in touch, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom or DM us on Instagram @MB. Daily show so let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair Makeup was not needed today, thankfully. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.

B (29:20)

Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.