
Down goes Hindenburg & another billionaire rocket launch
Loading summary
Amazon Sponsor
This episode is brought to you by Amazon. Sometimes the most painful part of getting sick is the getting better part. Waiting on hold for an appointment, sitting in crowded waiting rooms, standing in line at the pharmacy. That's painful. Amazon One Medical and Amazon Pharmacy remove those painful parts of getting better with things like 24. 7 virtual visits and prescriptions delivered to your door. Thanks to Amazon Pharmacy and Amazon One Medical Healthcare just got less painful.
Neal Freyman
Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
Neal Freyman
Today, more MBA grads are on the job hunt. Months after graduation. Has the degree permanently lost its luster?
Toby Howell
Then the founder behind the infamous short seller Hindenburg Research is shutting the firm down. It's Friday, January 17th.
Neal Freyman
Let's ride. We lost a couple of legends yesterday. Visionary director David lynch died at 78. He was beloved for his surrealist, eerie depictions of American life in works like Twin Peaks, Mulholland Drive and Blue Velvet. Many have tried to copy his style, but as our colleague Jen Walsh put it so eloquently, no one has matched his freak since. Lynch's family announced his death on Facebook, writing, there's a big hole in the world now that he is no longer with us. But as he would say, keep your eye on the donut and not on the hole. Toby. Last year I started watching Mulholland and Drive because it is considered one of, if not the best movie of the last 25 years of the 21st century. Twenty minutes in, I was spooked. I turned it off. Maybe it's because I was by myself. It was late at night. So maybe we can watch it together because I do hear amazing things about that movie.
Toby Howell
Either that or his version of a Dune, which is also iconic, albeit for different reasons. It's become a little bit of a cult classic because of just how weird and over the top it is. But yeah, David lynch, an absolute legend. We also lost Bob Euchre, the iconic announcer known as Mr. Baseball, who is the voice of the Milwaukee brewers for over 50 years. He was 90 years old. Even if you never tuned into a Brewers game, you likely know Euchre for his iconic cameos in sports cinema. His just a bit outside call from Major League is as quotable as they come. Norm MacDonald thought euchre was one of the funniest men he ever met. And I encourage you all to go look up his appearances on the Johnny Carson's Tonight show to corroborate Norm's claim, they will never quite be a Mr. Baseball like him. Now, a word from our sponsor, public.com. neil, you ever use any lambs or AI chat bots?
Neal Freyman
I'm kind of an AI Luddite for the most part, although I will pull one up to prove my brother wrong every once in a while.
Toby Howell
Well, maybe you just haven't found the right one yet. Public's AI assistant Alpha is just like your typical chat bot. Like Chat cbt, but specifically for investing.
Neal Freyman
So instead of just making my brother look bad, I could ask about market trends and get real insights.
Toby Howell
Exactly. You want to know why a specific stock is moving? Ask Alpha Curious about a company's most recent earnings?
Neal Freyman
Call Ask Alpha and Considering Public gives you access to stocks, bonds, crypto and options all on one platform. Sometimes you need a little help navigating all of those choices.
Toby Howell
Check out public.com/morning brew and get some Alpha from Alpha Paid for by Public Investing. Full Disclosures in Podcast Description Our first story goes out to all the short kings out there, and I'm not just talking about height. Nate Anderson, the man behind the famed short selling firm Hindenburg Research, tossed in the towel, saying he was closing his firm due to the stresses of the job. Hindenburg made a name for itself by going after the giants of the corporate world, including the Indian conglomerate Adani Group, the once high flying hydrogen truck startup Nikola, and household names like Carvana, Icahn Enterprises and Jack Dorsey owned Block. Between Block, Adani Group and Icahn Enterprises, Hindenburg's deeply researched reports knocked as much as $173 billion off their market value. It's not easy to destroy that much value amidst one of the best bull runs US equities have seen in decades. But Hindenburg's approach created a loyal following that allowed it to a punch its weight. Not all of its shots hit its target, though. Since publishing a report about roadblocks in October, the children's game platform has seen its stock rise 50% and shares of its most recent target, Carvana, have recovered and are up about 5% this month. Still, it's going to be weird living in a world without a Hindenburg report randomly dropping from the clouds and causing a ruckus. Neil and shows that activist short sellers are increasingly becoming a dying breed.
Neal Freyman
So our first thought when this news hit the wires on Wednesday was that financial regulators are knocking at his door because short selling is not for the weak stomach. He launched this firm in 2017 and immediately was sued by three of the firms that he was targeting. There are legal challenges facing other short sellers as well. Andrew Left, who's a very prominent short seller, is now was indicted for manipulating stock. So I don't, I'm not speculating at all. It's just this is the first thing that came to everyone's mind here at Morning Brew because short sellers are operating in a legal gray area and many of them have just hung up the cleats in recent years because they say it's not worth it. Hindenburg guy says it's because he just has a terrible work life balance.
Toby Howell
Yeah, I mean, as. For a long time, short sellers have been advised by their lawyers that as long as your reports that you issue contain no material inaccuracies and are not based on inside information, you're pretty much in the clear. But again, they are these destructive forces in the financial world. So of course, some of the companies that are the targets of short sellers do start to push back, do sue, do try to pursue legal action against them. So they aren't loved, nor are they very well understood. But Hindenburg kind of bucked that trend a little bit. I think it's because its big break was taking on Nikola Motors, which this was just kind of emblematic of that time is that 2020, 2021 era where these spacs, where these high flying companies. Hindenburg looked under the curtain of it, looked under the hood of Nikola Motors and found that in a lot of their videos, they weren't even powering their trucks via the ways that they were supposed to be powered. They were rolling them downhills. And those sort of revelations kind of endeared people to Hindenburg because then they were seen as this small upstart firm going after these potentially fraudulent companies, which is why it created sort of this cult following. Just emblematic of that cult following. Nate Anderson signed off by sending his team this link to a deep house set by this British DJ in Bali. It's this very nice video, but if you go and look at those top comments, most of them are mentioning Hindenburg saying, rip Hindenburg, like, we loved you. So that sort of, kind of love for a short seller is not something you see very often. It was unique to Hindenburg.
Neal Freyman
No, especially in 2021 with a GameStop fiasco. If you remember what that was all about. You had these Redditors trying to push up the stock of GameStop because it was being shorted by a hedge fund, Melvin Capital, and they wanted to put the quote, unquote squeeze on the short seller, Melvin Capital. Melvin is no longer with us. It is defunct after that. That Gamestop rise in share price. But a number of short sellers in recent years have just said this is not worth it. Bill ackman had that very, very prominent short on herbalife, and he lost billions of dollars on that. So he's like, I'm not doing that anymore. Citron is another guy. Like, he had a $6 billion short fund, and he's like, I'm just not doing this anymore. So we may see a decline in short sellers. They may be going extinct after hindenburg is gone now. And, you know, some would celebrate that. They think that short selling is illegal, and it causes all sorts of chaos in the market. And people can manipulate stocks that way because they are making money on this. They're. They're betting that the stocks will go down after they issue these reports. And then others say, no, actually, short sellers are an important part of our markets ecosystem. It's important to have a check on market euphoria. So, you know, I just. The future for short sellers does look extremely cloudy. The billionaire space race is officially on. Jeff bezos. His space company, blue origin, Successfully launched its new glenn rocket into orbit for the first time early Thursday. It's a huge step for the world's second richest man to begin competing in space against the world's first richest man, Elon musk, whose space x holds a near monopoly on rocket launches. This launch has been a long time coming. Bezos founded Blue Origin 25 years ago, only six years after he launched Amazon, with the goal of enabling millions of people to work and live in space. But in the years since, blue origin has only managed to send people up to the edge of space. Certainly not orbit. And a small rocket named new shepard. And the launch of this big rocket, the towering 322 foot tall New Glenn, was initially slated for 2020, before delays pushed it back five years. Meanwhile, Space X launched rockets 134 times. Last year alone, is valued at $350 billion, and has built out a starlink satellite Internet service that's set to rake in nearly $2012 billion in revenue this year. So, as it stands now, musk has built a commanding lead over bezos. Let's call it 28 to 3. Toby. Can Bezos pull off a patriots level comeback and present the first real challenge to space x?
Toby Howell
Who knows? There was a lot of reasons to doubt blue origin before this, because they literally had not gotten anything up into orbit in 25 years. It is kind of wild to think about how much kind of airtime we've thought about blue origin, but how little they'd actually accomplished. So this did silence a lot of those initial doubters, Because Even though Blue Origin has been lagging behind, NASA is counting on New Glenn to actually deliver two spacecraft into orbit around Mars. So it has a contract with them. The US military also has a few contracts with Blue Origin as well. Blue Origin has also poured a ton of money into getting its ambitions off the ground. They've put $1 billion into New Glenn's launch site. It's near historic Cape Canaveral. So there's a lot on the line here. They needed to get something into orbit and they finally got it off. The ground mission didn't go perfectly. They weren't able to land the booster like Space X has done in the past. But they did have a successful orbital mission, which is really the main purpose of this latest launch.
Neal Freyman
And Bezos has been entranced by space since a young age. He appeared at the Dealbook Summit last year and he said, I think it's going to be this. He's talking about space Blue Origin. It's going to be the best business that I've ever been involved in, but it's going to take a while. Might I remind you that, that he's been involved in another big company, Amazon, So he's pretty bullish on space. And I just kind of want to take a step back here. We used to talk about the space race in terms of US versus Russia versus China. And now we have the new space race here in 2025 is between the two richest people on Earth, Elon Musk and Space X against Blue Origin and Jeff Bezos. It's just an entirely different thing that's going on. And NASA is relying on these private companies to deliver payloads into orbit and take it, take into its new frontier. And maybe that's another way of America establishing its, its soft power.
Toby Howell
And we did have a little bit of a frenemy moment or just a friendly moment between Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk. Elon Musk did congratulate Blue Origin that he wrote congratulations on reaching orbit on the first attempt. And then we had some nice parallelism as well because SpaceX launched its Starship yesterday. It was a little bit of a mixed bag. They actually lost communication with starship which led to it breaking up in orbit, which also led to some really cool pictures. It looked like a full on meteor shower as this starship broke up. But they did end up catching their heavy booster with the chopsticks again, which is just always a very cool thing to watch. So it was almost the perfect, you know, antithesis to the New Glenn launch, which successfully completed, completed their orbital mission but wasn't able to catch their booster. SpaceX did the exact opposite. So maybe if you're NASA, you're like, well, in aggregate, we had a pretty good day here.
Neal Freyman
There was a time when a Harvard MBA was a first class ticket to, well, a first class ticket. But. But times are changing in this rough market for white collar workers. According to the Wall Street Journal, nearly a quarter of job seeking Harvard MBAs who graduated last spring are still on the hunt for work three months after leaving school. That's up from 20% the year before and way up from 10% in 2022. And I'm not just going to pick on Harvard. This MBA recession has impacted all of the top B schools. Wharton at Penn, Stanford's Grad school of Business, nyu, Stern, they all saw lower job placements last year than at any point in the Journal wrote. I'll give you one more number to put a point on it. The share of 2024 MBAs still on the job market months after they graduated has more than doubled at most elite business schools over 2022. The big picture Even though the economy continues to add jobs at a rapid clip, demand is just not strong for white collar high wage employees who come out of places like hbs. The Big four consulting firms are slimming down. Tech has adopted Mark Zuckerberg's year of Efficiency model. And of course AI replacing human jobs is always in the back of your mind. Toby, the thorny question here. Is this a blip or more of a permanent trend of MBAs declining in status?
Toby Howell
Yeah, I mean there's definitely cycles when it comes to hiring. I mean after the big tech bubble popped, you saw the share of MBA grads going into tech drop precipitously. So it is a cyclical industry in a cyclical business. And also, just because you have a fancy MBA and a fancy degree next to your name, it doesn't mean you're completely immune to the difficulties experienced in this job market right now. It still is a pretty Even though we have had great jobs data coming out, it is not necessarily the most gangbusters job market that we've seen. So of course they're going to feel a little bit of pressure. Just like every other person trying to get a job is feeling. It's a two sided marketplace too. If Amazon, if Google, if the McKinsey's, if the Bains of the world don't want to hire people, if they are cutting back on, of course you're going to see people lagging on the job market as well, so I don't know if it's an existential threat or if it's just a cyclical thing, but whatever is happening, less MBAs are getting hired.
Neal Freyman
That was the big conversation on social media. Paul Graham, the venture capitalist, said this is a secular trend when quoting this article. And he said, and by that he is implying that this is more of a permanent downward trend in the fact that the demand for NBA specifically is just going down. And I do want to talk about, I think that is maybe the chat bot elephant in the room here. Google said it's already writing 25% of its code using AI. A new report from Bloomberg found that global banks are going to shed 200,000 jobs in the next three to five years due to AI. And I don't know how much of this NBA downturn people can't find jobs is is companies already using AI to replace workers. But you know, it's certainly something that, you know, we'll have to watch because when you're talking about this kind of AI, we've talked about automation for centuries replacing human jobs. But in the past it's been blue collar work manufacturers. Let's get a robot to build this widget instead of a human. It's a lot safer and more efficient. This kind of AI that we've seen, this AI revolution over the past few years is really going after white collar work knowledge workers. So that's where this, you know, white collar recession could come from. And MBAs are perhaps on the front line of that because they're very expensive. Meanwhile chatbots, mostly free. So I think I will, if it's not a part of this story now, will be will be one in the coming years.
Toby Howell
Let's take a quick break after it. We're going to stock the week dog the week. If you love iPhone, you'll love Apple Card. It comes with the privacy and security you expect from Apple. Plus you earn up to 3% daily cash back on every purchase which can automatically earn interest when you open a high yield savings account through Apple Card. Apply for Apple Card in the wallet app app subject to credit approval. Savings is available to Apple Card owners subject to eligibility. Apple Card and Savings by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch Member FDIC terms and more@applecard.com Neil, you've had the chance to work with plenty of strong leaders in your career. What traits do you think are the most important?
Neal Freyman
In my experience, a few things do stand out like leading by example, taking risks and being passionate.
Toby Howell
And for all those influential leaders out there there's the Range Rover Sport that's.
Neal Freyman
Definitely a match made in heaven.
Toby Howell
Each model strikes ideal balance between on road performance and world renowned off road capability of sophisticated refinement and visceral power. And you can build a Range Rover Sport that matches your leadership style at Range Rover Sport. @Land RoverUSA.com that's Land Rover USA.com It's Friday, which means it is stock of the week dog of the week time where Neil and I pick one stock that is struggling with prolonged flu like symptoms and one stock that has had a clean bill of health. Neil, you fought hard but I won the pre show chess boxing match so I'm up first and my stock of the week is Nintendo. Because the Japanese video game maker finally has a new console coming out after eight long years, Nintendo unveiled the successor to its popular switch console, the Switch 2. Set to launch later this year, the hybrid console will feature a 7 inch screen and redesigned controllers that attach to side ports magnetically instead of sliding in mechanically like the original model. The Switch 2 is a big deal for Nintendo, but also the wider gaming industry. The first edition of the Device is the second best selling console of all time, behind just the PlayStation 2. It propelled Nintendo to its most profitable era ever, but it's been out since 2017 and momentum in sales are lagging, causing Nintendo's profits to hit a banana peel. So analysts are hoping that the Switch 2 can power a comeback both in the hardware and in the game sales divisions.
Neal Freyman
The Switch will be looked at as a remarkable console. It's a hybrid of a home console and a held handheld one. And it was home to some legendary games that Nintendo put out. Legend of Zelda, Breath of the Wild, Legend of Zelda, Tears of the Kingdom, Super Mario odyssey, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. Some very legendary games here all came out on the Switch and people who are looking to get the new Switch should know that these will be compatible on the new device as well. So I mean, yeah, you're right, like the Switch sold like gangbusters for its first four to five years, but actually over the past few years, I mean it has been showing its age. Nintendo's profits have declined for five straight quarters. So it really needs this new Switch to gin up sales.
Toby Howell
And they are taking a safer approach than Nintendo has in the past because they are using a familiar silhouette. They're kind of just updating the Switch one instead of redesigning a whole new form factor, which in the past the company has definitely done. It has had some big swings and some big misses. What comes to mind is the Wii U following up the WWII, the Nintendo GameCube as well. Both were flopped compared to their predecessors. So maybe in an effort to just say we need to revive sales a little bit, let's go with what we know worked instead of trying to redesign an entirely new gaming system like they have in the past.
Neal Freyman
Okay, what's your favorite Nintendo console?
Toby Howell
Well, the Wii, that was the only console I had growing up. I didn't have an Xbox. We didn't have anything. My parents weren't big video games people, so they fell for the propaganda of, oh, they're going to be moving while they play it. So I'm a huge we guy.
Neal Freyman
My dog of the week is United Health Care Group, the owner of the health insurance company whose CEO Brian Thompson, was fatally shot in December, sparking a national debate around the industry. UnitedHealth stock fell 6% yesterday after dropping its first earnings report since that assassination, notching record revenues of $400 billion for the full year but missing profit estimates, which sent the stock tumbling. Net income for 2024 plunged 35% from 2023 as the company took a big hit from a massive cyber attack, one of the worst ever on one of its subsidiaries last February. Its costs have also jumped from greater demand for health care under Medicare plans for older adults, lowering profit margins. Financials aside, everyone on the earnings call wanted to hear what CEO Andrew Witty would say after the shooting of his direct report shined a spotlight on his company's tactics and put the entire health insurance business on the defense. Witty praised Thompson as a leader who dove into projects passionately and also acknowledged that the health system needs to function better and lower costs for everyone.
Toby Howell
Yeah, there was definitely a magnifying glass on this latest earnings call for the reasons that you just described, but also because there is right now a lot of pressure on the health care industry as a whole. UnitedHealth's annual medical cost ratio, which is actually the percent of premiums it pays out for medical care care, that hit 85% this quarter. It's usually the industry average is around 80% historically. So that highlights the problem that a lot of these health care companies are beginning to face, and that is higher medical costs due to more demand from aging Americans, more Americans utilizing these Medicare plans. So there's definitely some nervousness around the industry right now as these, you know, medical cost ratio continue to creep upwards.
Neal Freyman
Let's bring to the finish with some final headlines. Donald Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, had his confirmation hearing before the Senate Yesterday, the billionaire hedge fund manager defended Trump's plans to enact sweeping tariffs and extend deep tax cuts from 2017, which is important because as treasury secretary, he'll be in charge of carrying out those policies. Democrats are less enthused than Republicans over Bessant's nomination, expressing concern that the tariffs will lead to inflation and the tax cuts will benefit rich people and companies more than the middle class. Still, he's expected to sail through the nomination process and replace Janet Yellen as the president's top fiscal policy adviser and manager of the national debt.
Toby Howell
Yet, yeah, be sent stuck pretty closely to the preferred talking points. Trump's preferred policies, his big, you know, kind of things that he spoke about were the 2017 tax cuts. He, he called extending those the single most important economic issue of the day. And he warned that failing to extend them would represent a huge tax increase on a lot of Americans. That he says, he called it the largest tax increase in history on Americans. So definitely tariffs is going to be a talking point, but then these tax cuts are probably going to be some of the storylines that will be swirling around Bessant as he kind of eases in, assuming he gets approved, the nomination gets approved. As we ease into these first hundred days of the Trump administration, Zinn lovers, rejoice. Your favorite lip pillows aren't in danger of getting taken off the shelves anytime soon. The FDA formally authorized the nicotine pouches yesterday after conceding they were safe through testing. The big finding that went in Zinn's favor is that they posed a lower risk of cancer and other health conditions when compared to cigarettes and smokeless tobacco products. Not only are they better, but the evidence also showed that Zins could help smokers quit the habit as well. Neal, this was a big win for Zinn and a big win for everyone who loves a cheeky little Upper Decky from time to time.
Neal Freyman
Yeah, this was, this is huge. You have to balance two things. To get the FDA's green light for this nicotine product, you have to show that your products will reduce disease among adult tobacco users. So you have to show that they will come over to use your products and that it won't lead to an uptick in bad health outcomes. At the same time, you can't be attracting teens and adolescents. And this is what Chuck Schumer last year went after Zinn for marketing towards youth with Zinn, with a lot of, a lot of Zinn influencers online, the company says that it does not pay these influencers to target the youth. And the FDA said, sure, I believe you. So right now, Zinn did fulfill those two check marks. And it does have data to back up the fact that kids, you know, like actual kids are not using this. Fewer than 2% of American high school and middle school students used nicotine pouches last year. If you are a cord cutter but still want to watch the super bowl next month, you'll be able to stream it for free for the first time ever. Fox, which is broadcasting the super bowl, said it's going to stream the game live on Tubi, its ad supporting streaming service. To be As a history with the super bowl fewer Remember that viral ad two years ago where it seemed like someone had hijacked your remote and interrupted the announcers? That was to be. Now it's preparing for its time in the spotlight. And you know what? I think it's ready. Fox bought Tubi for $400 million in 2020. Now it's bringing in $1 billion in revenue. Monthly active users have spiked 25% over the past year to 97 million. By getting the big game, it's hoping to juice those numbers even more.
Toby Howell
To be is way bigger than I thought. Nearly 100 million monthly active users is a sizable figure. And yes, this is the super bowl coming to the streaming era. The one caveat that needs to be mentioned here is that you do need to make an account if you want to stream the Super Bowl. So you won't be able to just tune in online or tune in on your tv. You have to have a to get.
Neal Freyman
That, get that fake email ready or yeah, whatever you're.
Toby Howell
I think I just have the throwaway email that you know, you sign up for all the accounts with. But yeah, this is no longer just a linear TV story. Streaming era has definitely come to the Super Bowl. And yeah, if people are having flashbacks to that one ad, everyone's like is my TV broken? What's going on here? So Tubi is kind of occupies some some headspace in a lot of sports fans minds for our final headline. Remember when we talked this week about the rise of the Chinese TikTok like app red Note? Users flocked to it as this semi ironic protest of TikTok's potential ban, running willingly into the embrace of the Chinese owned platform. But they also ran right into an app interface that is entirely in Mandarin, which has proved to be a boon for Duolingo. The language learning app has experienced a 216% surge in new Mandarin learners in the US driven by rednotes rise. Duolingo isn't complaining though. It also saw a 36% rise in US download and has cashed in with some seriously viral posts on X2 with Ron Reading. Oh, so now you're learning Mandarin, getting 15 million impressions. Neil, what is TikTok's loss is Duolingo's gain.
Neal Freyman
How good is Duolingo's social media team just capitalizing on this, unleashing a series of extremely viral posts, building on the momentum they're so good at taking, you know, something that just happened to them, right, and they got lucky, but then they built on that to maybe establish a more direct relationship with these new users that are coming in to learn Mandarin. So, you know, hats off to you that, that you did a great job and now it's rising up the top apps. It's not, you know, at the level of Red Note, which is number one, lemonade number two, but it was in the 40 top 40s for, for the top app store. Now it's 22, number 20. So it has seen a climb. I've never used Duolingo either, have I?
Toby Howell
But those, my brother and his girlfriend use it and those like thing it's a very, you know, recognizable tone I hear on the subways too. So. So it's one of those things that once you start using it, it's a very viral and a sticky app because you want to keep your streak going. So once you kind of make the plunge learning language, I do think it kind of captures you.
Neal Freyman
Let's wrap it up there. Thanks for starting your morning with us. Have an amazing Friday and an even better weekend. Eagles. Do not let me down this Sunday. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. And if you're enjoying the show, don't keep it to yourself. Share it with friends, family, coworkers, anyone who's looking for a quick, fun news roundup in the morning. And don't worry if you're drawing a blank. Toby, as always, has a sharing suggestion for you.
Toby Howell
I want you to share today's podcast with someone who wants some long weekend listening as well. Monday is MLK Jr. Day, and we recorded a special holiday interview episode with Phil Andrews from Max and Nomics. We talked about everything from from autonomous vehicles to tariffs to why Chipotle could overtake McDonald's soon. So share this episode with your friends so they get to listen to that wonderful episode as well.
Neal Freyman
All right, let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Uchenova Ogu is our technical director. And for the final time. This is so sad. Billy Menino is on audio. This is Billy's last day working on the pod. Thank you for everything, Billy. Best of luck on your new adventures and I'm so excited for you to be able to sleep in.
Toby Howell
Thanks for making us sound good. Billy.
Neal Freyman
Hair and makeup is learning Mandarin. Zao Sheng. How that means Good morning Zao Shanghao Brew Daily Show. Devin Emery is our Chief Content Officer and our shows are production of Morning Brew.
Toby Howell
Great show today, Neil. I wish you all well.
Morning Brew Daily: Episode Summary
Episode Title: Short Seller Hindenburg Closes Up Shop & Bezos Enters the Space Race
Release Date: January 17, 2025
Hosts: Neal Freyman and Toby Howell
In this episode, Neal Freyman and Toby Howell delve into the recent closure of Hindenburg Research, a prominent short selling firm known for its aggressive takedowns of corporate giants.
Key Highlights:
Closure Announcement: Nate Anderson, founder of Hindenburg Research, announced the shutdown of his firm, attributing the decision to the immense stress and poor work-life balance associated with short selling. (04:50)
Impact on the Market: Hindenburg had a significant influence on the market, having targeted companies like the Adani Group, Nikola, Carvana, Icahn Enterprises, and Block (formerly known as Jack Dorsey’s company). Their meticulous reports cumulatively reduced these companies' market values by approximately $173 billion. Despite facing occasional misses, such as the recent growth in Carvana's stock post-report, Hindenburg maintained a loyal following. Neal reflects, “It's not easy to destroy that much value amidst one of the best bull runs US equities have seen in decades.” (04:50)
The Decline of Short Selling: The hosts discuss a broader trend of short sellers exiting the market, citing legal challenges and increasing regulatory scrutiny. High-profile short sellers like Andrew Left and Bill Ackman have faced legal issues and significant financial losses, leading to skepticism about the sustainability of short selling as a viable strategy. Toby notes, “The future for short sellers does look extremely cloudy.” (07:11)
Community Reaction: The closure of Hindenburg has left a void in the financial landscape, with many lamenting the end of a firm that dared to challenge corporate giants. The sentiment among Hindenburg’s followers was palpable, as evidenced by the heartfelt comments on Nate Anderson’s farewell gesture—a link to a deep house set by a British DJ in Bali. (04:50)
Neal and Toby shift their focus to the aerospace industry, highlighting Jeff Bezos’ ambitious strides with Blue Origin as it launches its New Glenn rocket into orbit, challenging Elon Musk’s SpaceX dominance.
Key Highlights:
New Glenn Success: Blue Origin successfully launched the New Glenn rocket, a 322-foot-tall behemoth designed to deliver payloads into orbit. This marks a significant milestone for Bezos, whose space company has struggled to achieve orbital launches since its inception 25 years ago. Neal emphasizes, “The billionaire space race is officially on.” (09:48)
Comparative Analysis with SpaceX: The hosts compare Blue Origin’s latest achievements with SpaceX’s recent activities. While Blue Origin managed a successful orbital mission, SpaceX experienced mixed results with its Starship launch—losing communication and breaking up in orbit but successfully recovering its heavy booster. Toby remarks, “Maybe if you're NASA, you're like, well, in aggregate, we had a pretty good day here.” (11:45)
Strategic Partnerships and Future Prospects: Blue Origin has secured contracts with NASA for missions to Mars and has secured military contracts, signaling strong future prospects. The substantial investment of $1 billion into the New Glenn launch site near Cape Canaveral underscores the company's commitment. Neal reflects on Bezos' long-term vision, “It's going to be the best business that I've ever been involved in, but it's going to take a while.” (10:51)
Elon Musk’s Response: In a display of sportsmanship, Elon Musk congratulated Blue Origin on their successful orbital launch, highlighting a respectful rivalry. Neal observes, “It's just an entirely different thing that's going on.” (11:45)
The conversation shifts to the struggles faced by recent MBA graduates, with Neal presenting concerning statistics and Toby providing expert analysis on the potential factors driving this trend.
Key Highlights:
Alarming Job Hunt Statistics: According to the Wall Street Journal, nearly 25% of MBA graduates from top schools like Harvard, Wharton, Stanford, NYU Stern, and others are still unemployed months after graduation. This marks a significant increase from previous years, indicating a potential MBA recession. Neal states, “Even though the economy continues to add jobs at a rapid clip, demand is just not strong for white collar high wage employees.” (12:37)
Cyclical Nature vs. Permanent Decline: Toby explores whether this downturn is a temporary cycle or a more sustained decline. He acknowledges historical patterns where MBA recruitment fluctuates with market conditions but remains uncertain about the long-term outlook. “I don't know if it's an existential threat or if it's just a cyclical thing,” Toby concludes. (13:56)
Impact of AI on White Collar Jobs: Neal introduces the notion that advancements in AI are significantly impacting white collar jobs, including those typically pursued by MBA graduates. With AI tools replacing tasks traditionally performed by human employees, the demand for high-cost MBA talent may be diminishing. He remarks, “Chatbots, mostly free. So I think I will, if it's not a part of this story now, will be one in the coming years.” (14:50)
Expert Insights: Paul Graham, a prominent venture capitalist, is quoted suggesting that this trend is secular, implying a long-term decrease in MBA demand. Toby adds that the integration of AI into business operations is accelerating, further reducing the need for human intermediaries in roles often filled by MBA graduates. (14:50)
In their recurring segment, Neal and Toby analyze one struggling stock and one that has shown resilience.
Product Launch Delays: Nintendo faces challenges as it prepares to launch the Switch 2, its highly anticipated successor to the Switch console. Despite the original Switch being a massive success, sales have plateaued since 2017, leading to declining profits. Neal highlights, “Nintendo's profits have declined for five straight quarters.” (17:04)
Market Strategy: The new console features a redesigned controller with magnetic attachments, aiming to rejuvenate sales without overhauling the established form factor. Toby points out, “They are taking a safer approach than Nintendo has in the past,” hoping to avoid the failures of previous consoles like the Wii U and GameCube. (19:32)
Recent Setbacks: UnitedHealth experienced a 6% drop in stock value following a troubling earnings report. The company’s net income plummeted by 35% due to a significant cyberattack and increased costs from higher demand under Medicare plans. Neal notes, “UnitedHealth stock fell 6% yesterday after dropping its first earnings report since that assassination.” (20:23)
Leadership and Industry Challenges: CEO Andrew Witty faced intense scrutiny following the tragic shooting of his predecessor, Brian Thompson. The incident sparked discussions on the company’s practices and the broader challenges within the health insurance industry, such as rising medical costs. Toby explains, “UnitedHealth's annual medical cost ratio... hit 85% this quarter, highlighting the problem.” (21:26)
The episode concludes with a roundup of significant news items:
Neal Freyman and Toby Howell provide a comprehensive overview of significant events impacting the business and economic landscapes. From the closure of a major short selling firm and the intensifying space race between tech moguls to the evolving challenges faced by MBA graduates and notable movements in the stock market, the episode offers valuable insights for listeners. Additionally, the final headlines keep the audience informed on crucial regulatory, health, and technological developments shaping today's world.
Notable Quotes:
For more detailed discussions and a deeper dive into these topics, tune into the full episode of Morning Brew Daily available on all podcasting platforms and YouTube.