Morning Brew Daily – Episode Summary

Date: November 12, 2025
Hosts: Toby Howell & Kyle Hagie
Title: SoftBank Dumps Nvidia for OpenAI & Reward Cards No Longer Accepted?

Overview

In this lively, information-packed episode, Toby and Kyle break down SoftBank’s headline-making decision to dump its lucrative Nvidia holdings in favor of a massive OpenAI commitment, dissect the latest twist in credit card payment regulations that could see premium reward cards rejected at stores, and cover a grab bag of other business trends and oddities—from the resurgence of buses and trains amid a government-induced air travel meltdown, to Netflix’s splashy foray into physical “house” attractions, Airbnb competitor Sonder’s abrupt collapse, and even the “McRib Effect” on stock markets. The conversation blends deep dives, snappy banter, and big-picture business context, keeping listeners both informed and entertained.

Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. SoftBank Sells Nvidia, Bets Big on OpenAI

Timestamps: 02:31 - 07:19

• SoftBank's Big Move:

  • SoftBank, led by Masayoshi Son, sold its $5.8 billion Nvidia stake to invest even more heavily in OpenAI, with $30 billion committed and $7.5 billion already deployed.
  • The move evokes nostalgia and regret—SoftBank once owned 5% of Nvidia in 2016, which would now be worth over $210 billion had they held on.
  • Quote (Toby, 03:30): “Selling Nvidia once, okay; selling it twice, takes a lot of nerve to do that.”

• Rationale & Risks:

  • SoftBank is bulking up its commitment as OpenAI prepares to transition into a for-profit entity.
  • Nvidia is likened to "picks and shovels" in the AI gold rush, while OpenAI is on the frontier, burning cash to chase massive scale.
  • Contrasted with competitor Anthropic, which is playing a more measured, profit-focused game.
  • Quote (Kyle, 04:33): “Anthropic expects to break even by 2028… OpenAI expects operating losses to its $78 billion in that same year. So you’re seeing two very different strategies played out by two of these large AI companies.”

• Market Impact & Skepticism:

  • SoftBank shares dropped over 10% after the Nvidia exit—seen by some as a sign of the market top.
  • Michael Burry claims AI companies are inflating profits by understating chip depreciation, stoking further market jitters.
  • Quote (Toby, 05:57): “Potentially a symbol of the top…a lot of these major players in the AI space [are] engaging in bubblicious activities.”

2. Credit Card Landscape: Premium Rewards Cards at Risk

Timestamps: 07:19 - 11:36

• Settlement Overview:

  • A new settlement allows U.S. stores to pick which Visa/Mastercard products to accept, potentially rejecting costly premium reward cards.
  • Merchants will also be able to price based on the card used, to reflect backbreaking interchange fees—$83 billion in 2024, up 71% from 2019.
  • 0.1 percentage point cut in swipe fees will be phased in over five years.
  • Will require court approval and likely face pushback from merchant groups.

• Retailer Dilemma:

  • The flexibility to reject cards could harm customer satisfaction, since most transactions are now cashless and premium cards are popular.
  • Quote (Toby, 09:24): “It makes sense for them to save money on these interchange fees, but in practice, it’s very difficult to actually wean people off their premium credit cards.”
  • Quote (Kyle, 10:36): “The customer is not going…to write to Visa, ‘hey, it’s your fault I got charged more.’ They’re going to be mad at the cashier.”
  • Examples like Costco already limiting card types, but most small businesses can’t make such unilateral moves.

3. Travel Trends: Buses & Trains Surge Amid Flight Chaos

Timestamps: 11:37 - 15:16

• Holiday Travel Shift:

  • Ongoing U.S. government shutdown has crippled air travel—over 6,000 cancellations and 20,000 delays with bookings swinging over to buses (Megabus, Greyhound up 12-30%), trains (Amtrak record bookings), and even one-way rental cars (Turo up 30%).
  • Quote (Toby, 13:37): “Planes, trains, and automobiles is turning into buses, rental cars and…still trains.”
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene’s surprise endorsement of Amtrak after a forced trip.

• System Stabilizing (for Now):

  • Flight cancellations briefly at lowest levels since restrictions—878 cancelled as of 4am Wednesday—but with overall flight volumes lower and disruptions expected to rise again.

4. Experiential Retail: Netflix House Debuts

Timestamps: 17:20 - 21:25

• Netflix Enters Disney Territory:

  • Netflix unveils its first “Netflix House” in Philadelphia, a 100,000-square-foot, IP-packed attraction (including a “Tudum Theater,” Netflix Bites restaurant, Wednesday Addams’ dorm room, etc.).
  • Free entry; paid experiences inside start at $15, aiming for family-friendly pricing ($160 for a family of four).
  • Plans to rapidly expand—Dallas opening in a month, Las Vegas in 2027, targets 60+ global locations.
  • Quote (Kyle, 17:20): “The company that started by mailing DVDs to your house is now inviting you to theirs.”
  • The strategy mirrors Disney’s 'create affinity and monetize' playbook, letting Netflix diversify beyond subscriptions and deepen brand loyalty.

• Challenges & Skeptics:

  • Will consumers make special trips just for Netflix experiences, vs. the “full day out” of a theme park?
  • Quote (Toby, 21:25): “You can see where their heads are at here, like, let’s drive some affinity. Let’s try to make a little revenue along the way.”

5. Quick Hits & Oddities

Timestamps: 21:26 - 26:08

• Sonder Shuts Down Abruptly:

  • Once a $1B Airbnb competitor, Sonder filed for bankruptcy, leaving guests stranded and hotels locked overnight after Marriott swiftly pulled support.
  • Quote (Toby, 23:40): “What if I get there and my hotel doesn’t actually exist? That started happening.”

• The McRib Effect on Markets:

  • McDonald’s brings back the McRib in select cities. “McRib Effect” study found S&P 500 returns were 0.07% higher when McRib was available (2010-2017)—likely just spurious correlation.
  • Quote (Toby, 25:05): “When the McRib is back, you are making more money than when it is not back.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Selling Nvidia once, okay; selling it twice, takes a lot of nerve to do that.”
  — Toby, 03:30

• “Anthropic expects to break even by 2028… OpenAI expects operating losses to its $78 billion in that same year.”
  — Kyle, 04:33

• “Potentially a symbol of the top… these major players engaging in bubblicious activities.”
  — Toby, 05:57

• “It makes sense for them to save money on these interchange fees, but in practice, it’s very difficult…”
  — Toby, 09:24

• “The customer…going to be mad at the cashier and then never come back to the store.”
  — Kyle, 10:36

• “Planes, trains and automobiles is turning into buses, rental cars and…I guess still trains.”
  — Toby, 13:37

• “The company that started by mailing DVDs to your house is now inviting you to theirs.”
  — Kyle, 17:20

• “What if I get there and my hotel doesn’t actually exist? That started happening.”
  — Toby, 23:40

• “When the McRib is back, you are making more money than when it is not back.”
  — Toby, 25:05

Episode Flow & Tone

The hosts maintain their signature wit and chemistry throughout, moving seamlessly between big business headlines and quirky trends, mixing relatable anecdotes (“Still using my cousin’s ex-girlfriend’s Netflix password”) with sharp analysis, always in a conversational, slightly irreverent tone.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• SoftBank’s Nvidia Sell-Off & AI Bets: 02:31 – 07:19
• Credit Card Settlement & Premium Card Concerns: 07:19 – 11:36
• Buses & Trains Boom Amid Flight Chaos: 11:37 – 15:16
• Netflix House Expansion: 17:20 – 21:25
• Sonder Collapse & McRib Effect: 21:26 – 26:08

Perfect for listeners wanting a nuanced, energetic digest of the day’s biggest business stories and how they connect to all of us—delivered with both skepticism and a smile.