
An impressive new AI model out of China & Trump retaliates against Colombia
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Neal Freyman
Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
Neal Freyman
Today, a small Chinese lab may have upended the world of AI as we know it.
Toby Howell
Then Trump threatened the first trade war of his presidency, but not against the country you'd expect. It's Monday, January 27th. Let's ride.
Neal Freyman
Alrighty. The super bowl is set. My Philadelphia. The Eagles will take on the Kansas City Chiefs two Sundays from now in a rematch from 2023. The Chiefs won that game and then they won the title again last year. So this year they're seeking to become the first team in NFL history to pull off a Super Bowl 3 peat. And only the Eagles and Saquon Barkley can stop them.
Toby Howell
Neal, I am not afraid to say it. The Chiefs are the most unlikable team in NFL history. You got the refs blatantly stealing games for them. You got Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce flopping left and right. You know, the fact that they are so good and they won't stop winning games. So needless to say, I am going to start pronouncing it water, frequenting wawas and getting a saquon back tattoo because. Let's go, birds. You are our only hope.
Neal Freyman
I love what I hear, Toby. Go off.
Toby Howell
Go off and go, birds. Now, a word from our sponsor, Yahoo Finance. Neil, permission to tell everyone listening about my favorite Yahoo Finance feature.
Neal Freyman
Permission granted, Toby. Well, this is is an ad for Yahoo. Finance.
Toby Howell
Thank you, Neal. My favorite Yahoo. Finance feature is this subtle design decision where they show how a stock is trading if it is mentioned in a headline. For instance, take the headline wall street bets Tesla's 2025 sales will miss Elon Musk's Target. Just below that headline, you can see how Tesla is doing in premarket trading. It's down 1.4%.
Neal Freyman
I see why you like it. You get context from the headline and the reaction of the market all in one glance.
Toby Howell
And that's just a single headline. A full scan of Yahoo Finance's homepage and you'll learn all the storylines that are driving the market day Then if.
Neal Freyman
You want to go deeper, boom. Click the article and get the context you need to make informed investing decisions.
Toby Howell
If you want to check out my favorite feature, head to Yahoo. Finance.com and start perusing.
Neal Freyman
That's Yahoo.
Toby Howell
Finance.com American AI dominance is under serious threat after a Chinese company dropped a powerful new model that can go toe to toe with the very best OpenAI has to offer, but at a fraction of the cost. Deep Seq is a relatively unknown AI research lab from China that dropped an open source model last week that flipped the AI industry on its head. According to a paper from the company, its top of the line R1 model matches or beats competitors like Open Air's O1 on most math and reasoning benchmarks. But it's not just deep seeks performance that has the US spooked. It's the fact that it was able to develop such a model in the face of US Export controls that severely limit the amount of chips Chinese companies can buy. Given the restraints, Chinese research labs like Deep Seq have been forced to do more with less and thus found a way to train their models much more efficiently using limited compute they have available. But here's the real kicker. R1 is open source and free to use, which will seriously hurt subscriber only models like Open Air's $200 a month ChatGPT Pro subscription. Neil Scale AI CEO Alexander Wang, one of the more notable founders in the industry, put it best. He called the models coming out of Deep Seq earth shattering.
Neal Freyman
This is a literal earthquake and as of this morning it is toppling the stock market. As of 5am Nasdaq futures were down nearly 4% S&P 500 was down more than 2%. In video, stock is down 10%. There's a total tech wipeout. So I encourage you to maybe just hold off on looking at your stock portfolio today because it's, it is a massive collapse and it is all due to Deep Seq, which is so insane because this, this news has been percolating out over the past week. It has been all of the talk in Silicon Valley. You have huge AI players like Marc Andreessen, who leads a big venture capital firm that invests in AI, just absolutely gushing about it, saying this is the best thing I've seen since Slice Spread. So there's an app. There's a very huge impact that we're seeing from Deep Seek on the stock market right now. It upends, you said it upends the industry. It certainly upends the investment case for these large Tech companies. Yeah. The idea was that you have to spend hundreds of billions, tens of billions of dollars to build AI models. If you can just do it in five with $5.6 million like deep seq did, then maybe more people could get involved in these. Tech companies don't have the big moat that we thought they did.
Toby Howell
And I do just want to give some context on who is Deep Seek. Where did Deep Seek even come from? A very unconventional story. It actually started out as an AI model that was built for a Chinese quant hedge fund. They were literally building it as a side project. The CEO, the founder of the hedge fund was like, I was just curious about. I obviously was helping with the trading aspect, but they were taking the funds and the profits they were making from the hedge fund and putting it into this AI side research project. But because the AI are just. Because the US has these pretty strict export controls about the amount of high end Nvidia chips that can go over to China, they were working with basically a tenth of the compute power that someone like a Metta or someone like an OpenAI is working with. So those constraints, constraints kind of built or forced Deep Seek to come up with way more efficient methods to train its models. They didn't necessarily come up with a brand new method. They just combined a bunch of different ones together and it led to these greater efficiency gains. So now this is out in the open, it is open source. So other companies can start copying their approach, which will lead to efficiency gains which could, you know, topple in video from being one of the most valuable companies. Because if you need less of their chips, then maybe Nvidia is a little bit overvalued right now. So there's a lot of second order, third order effects that come from Deep Seq releasing this model.
Neal Freyman
What do you think the big CEOs of the tech companies are thinking right now? We just had Mark Zuckerberg, who leads Metta, come out on Friday with a big post on threads saying how they were going to invest so much money into AI. He pegged that this year at anywhere from like 55 billion to $60 billion. They're building huge data centers. So much money has been poured into AI infrastructure. We had SoftBank and OpenAI did do that big announcement of $100 billion that could go up to $500 billion. That is what they've put the price tag on building a world class AI model. And deepsea comes along and says, do it for a twentieth of that price. You know, this is insane. And that's why you see the market absolutely, you know, clobbering these, these tech giants right now is because maybe you don't need all this money to build a world class AI model.
Toby Howell
The one, I mean, you can call it cope. I'm going to use the word cope that I was seeing from around the industry is that they're in economics. There's this thing called J. Vaughn's paradox, which occurs when tech progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used. So think about maybe back this was coined back in 1865. It was about coal power plants becoming a lot more efficient. And the government thought like, oh, coal, power plants are much more efficient. That means we're going to need less coal. The exact opposite happens when efficiency gains are reached, actually more of that resource ends up being used. So that is what I've been kind of seeing from some tech leaders, like, hey, this is not Armageddon. What's actually going to happen is we're going to even see more demand for AI chips because of these efficiency gains. So there's a couple of ways to look at it. You can look at it that it is going to be a bloodbath that will wipe out Nvidia's dominance. Or Nvidia could just become more entrenched than ever due to these efficiencies.
Neal Freyman
And we have to mention the geopolitical angle too, because the US and China are locked in this huge arms race for AI supremacy. And we thought the US had the lead because we have OpenAI and Microsoft and Metta and, and these other tech giant, Nvidia. But now this Chinese company comes along and shows that it has parity with the us so it looks like whatever export controls we had to keep China from competing with the US have not been working.
Toby Howell
Let's stay on the topic of geopolitical tension. Trump issued a barrage of tariffs over the weekend, but not at a country you'd expect like Mexico or China. Instead, it was Colombia, a longtime US ally in Latin America, that was in Trump's crosshairs. On Sunday, President Trump said he would impose tariffs and sanctions against Colombia after its president, Gustavo Petro, refused to accept two US Flights carrying deported migrants. As a result, the president said he would slap a 25% tariff on all Colombian imports, which include commodities like crude oil and coffee, promising to raise them again to 50% in one week if the tariffs weren't enough. Trump also said he would fully impose financial sanctions against Colombia, tossing in a travel ban for good measure. By the end of the day, though, Colombia had given in to Trump's demands, averting a costly trade war. But the show of force was likely meant to dissuade other countries from getting similar ideas. Quote, it sends a powerful message to the world that not even old political allies are safe if they do not cooperate. Bloomberg wrote. Neil, this is the first, but certainly not the last time that we will see Trump using economic pressure to force a country to bend to an American first policy.
Neal Freyman
I don't think anyone woke up yesterday morning thinking that we would be in a full blown trade war with Colombia, which you mentioned is one of our top allies in Latin America. But that is exactly what happened. Looks like the Colombian president refused to accept these flights. Now, he has accepted many hundreds of migrant deportations coming from the United States over the past few years. He objected to the use of the military aircraft and we sent two military aircraft carrying migrants there. And he said, no, we don't want that. You have to treat them humanely and with dignity. And then he got into a war of words with Trump on social media. And then Trump said, you know what? Well, I've had it. We are going to do 25% tariffs that are going up to 50% next week. And as you mentioned, we have, we have a lot of leverage over Colombia's economy because they said we are their top trading partner. They send coffee and crude oil and all of these goods to the United States. Trump identified this as a point of leverage because if 25% tariffs go into effect, that makes, that makes those goods cost a lot more to ship into the United States. There goes the American consumer market. 50% is almost impossible to overcome. Colombian exporters get hurt. US consumers also get hurt. But the fact is that Colombia's economy is fragile. Trump identified the point of leverage and Colombia back down by the end of the day.
Toby Howell
And on the flip side, the U.S. imports about $16 billion of goods from Colombia in 2023. That ranked 26 on our list of, you know, import partners. So it's not like it's going to really affect too much in the US Economy if we lose Colombia, maybe coffee harder. Except for coffee. Coffee is one of those big commodities, makes up about a quarter of US Coffee imports. So Starbucks CEO Brian Nicholas probably looking at this going, are you kidding me right now? Colombia of all places. But I think it does show you are right that even though there is not a ton of policy overlap between immigration policy and economic and trade policies, Trump is planning to use them both in tandem to get what he wants. So I said it was the first time that we saw him doing this. We're only two weeks into his presidency, but it likely will not be the last.
Neal Freyman
And it's January 27th. Now we know there's a February 1st deadline that is Saturday for these big tariffs to go into effect on Mexico, Canada and China. And the Wall Street Journal reported just this morning that momentum is growing among Trump advisers that, you know, let's not that they're going to forgo the negotiation process and just slap Mexico and Canada with tariffs that would be on an economic impact of, of orders of magnitude bigger than what we'd see on Colombia. So the clock is ticking for the February 1st tariff deadline. If your claim to fame as a chef is making omelets, you might want to pick up a few new recipes. The prices of eggs have gone from wow, that's pretty expensive to that's almost a quarter of my rent in recent months. And they're not expected to go down anytime soon. Pricey eggs may be the new normal. The reasons are a noxious mix of record demand and constrained supply. On the supply side, the bird flu that's been devastating flocks for two has only intensified. About 10% of the US egg laying population, more than 30 million chickens have been killed in the last three months alone to prevent the spread of the disease. 10% of the supply, poof. Then, on the demand side, you're all eating way more eggs than you used to. Higher prices, be darned. The industry has seen more than 20 consecutive months, nearly two years worth of record high demand. Perhaps because eggs are increasingly seen as an affordable vehicle for protein. And as I said before, new normal, you get used to this. With the end of bird flu nowhere in sight, egg prices are projected to jump another 20% in 2025, far above the 2.2% inflation for food prices in general.
Toby Howell
I mean, eggs are the poster child of what people have been struggling with and hate about the elevated prices we've been seeing over the last few years. One of the reasons is you buy them very regularly, so you're actually pretty familiar with their price point. And you can tell when they go up or down their ingredients in a lot of food. I mean, bakers out there use them, breakfast lovers out there use them. They are just one of the more ubiquitous ingredients. And then you're right, there's been this kind of rise in healthier eating and protein kicks. And eggs are this supposedly affordable source of protein, except they're not so affordable anymore. The problem with this bird flu epidemic is that you have to call basically an entire flock, if one chicken, if one bird is infected because that's how infective this disease is that it can take down an entire flock. So you are seeing just these really large culling events where they're killing these, these birds because of single infections which is just devastating the supply side of the industry.
Neal Freyman
And my eighth grade teacher, Mrs. Roy would actually not be happy with me because I didn't provide any evidence to say that their egg prices were going up. So I don't want you to just believe me. I have the numbers. A dozen large grade a eggs was $4.15 in December. That's up from $3.65 in November just one month before. And then egg prices year over year have jumped 36% in December. So we are seeing some truly skyrocketing prices. The thing is, it's not totally filtering down to the retail level because wholesale prices have skyrocketed even more than what you'd find at the grocery store. They've gone from about $2.50 to above $7. But grocery stor restaurants use eggs as a loss leader. They say we're not going to make so much money on eggs. Maybe we're going to even lose money, but we're going to use it to get you in the door to buy more expensive items. So they're paying over $7 for a dozen eggs and they're discounting it for us. But who knows how much longer they're willing to absorb those price hikes.
Toby Howell
And you know what's coming around the corner? Easter, which is a quite egg heavy holiday. So it doesn't look like there's going to be a loss in demand any time soon. Up next, it is time for our winners of the weekend.
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Fund your account in 5 minutes or less and you could earn up to $10,000. Yes 10k when you transfer your old investment portfol portfolio, start at public.com/morning brew that's public.com/morning brew paid for by Public Investing Full Disclosures and Podcast Description welcome to Winners of the Weekend, the segment where Toby and I pick two things that just earned a place in the Morning Brew Daily Super Bowl. Toby, you won the pre show lip syncing Competition Toxic was a great choice, so you get to go first.
Toby Howell
My winner of the weekend is sports betting parlays. No, not because I hit on a big multi leg bet this weekend, but because they are fast becoming sportsbooks chief moneymaker. Parlays accounted for 27% of all sports betting in Illinois, New Jersey and Colorado last year, up from 22% in 2021. These types of bets are popular with sports fans because they represent the tantalizing opportunity to turn small wagers into big winnings thanks to long odds that arise when you link multiple bets together. And sportsbooks love them because they get a bigger cut from parlays than single bets. Parlays contributed about 56% of sports betting revenue after payouts in those same states during those same periods. Gambling companies are also relying on them to bring in more casual newcomers into the sports betting world. Instead of dropping $5 on a Chiefs super bowl win, customers who bet small are increasingly favoring parlays. FanDuel said that 90% of its same game parlay have bets of $30 or less, while over half are $5 or less. Neil Toss in a mass of influencers, big and small, putting their names and follower accounts behind pushing parlays and you have a potent moneymaking machine for gambling sites.
Neal Freyman
The economics of these are great for the gambling sites. As you mentioned, they accounted for 27% of the money wagered in those three states, but they delivered 56% of total revenue. And that's because parlays are really hard to win. But as the Wall Street Journal calls them, they're the new American lottery ticket, you can bet anywhere from 1 to $5 and stand to make hundreds of dollars. The odds are long, but you know that that big pot at the end of the rainbow does sound pretty tantalizing. And sportsbooks know this, so they are promoting the heck out of parlays. About 20% of all money spent by DraftKings on national TV ads hyped parlays. They're leveraging influencers like Bill Simmons and Charles Barkley. They're putting these parlays, they're packaging them up into particular themes. So for example, on Christmas Day, they had the chiefs were playing. They had a parlay called Merry Chiefsmiths. And they. You can bet on many different types of chiefs bets all linked together. And I should mention, you are likely to lose a parlay because the more you have to hit on every single one, they're all interconnected. So if you lose one leg, you lose all of your money. But the reason, you know, the reason why parlays are so exciting is because if that does, it's pretty good.
Toby Howell
Yeah, that. I think that's the big point here is that they're very aspirational. I mean, you can call them lottery tickets because what happens when you kind of piece this parlay together? You see the odds just go up and you see the potential winnings, and in your mind you're like, oh, that's what I'm stand to win. But it's really what you're standing to lose here. Because these are pretty small odds. The more bets you link together, the higher those odds become. So you can see why DraftKings, why FanDuel, are kind of putting a ton of marketing spend behind it. DraftKings is actually also testing a subscription service out that would give customers access to better parlay. So they're just figuring out different ways to, you know, come up with narratives that push parlays, different ways to offer customers better odds with those parlays. Because all it is is just this big attention grabber in the sports betting industry and a big moneymaker.
Neal Freyman
The storytelling you can do with them, I think is a big part. So as the super bowl comes up over these next few weeks, expect to see a lot of parlays packaged together in punny ways. My winner of the weekend is Coca Cola, because they just signed a lease for the best real estate around the Costco food court. During Costco's earnings call last week, the CEO confirmed rumors that the retailer would be switching from Pepsi products to Coke products in its food court, ending A partnership that had been in place since 2013. It is a big win for Coke over its rival and will allow it to extend its market share dominance. Coke Classic had an estimated 19.2% share of the US carbonated soft drink market last year, more than double Pepsi's 8.3%. So what prompted the change? It is all about the $1.50 hot dog and a soda combo. Of course, during the last switchover in 2013, Costco opted for Pepsi because it offered a better deal that would allow Costco to preserve the most sacrosanct promotion in business. So it's possible that Coke agreed to lower its price for Costco to win the new contract because as one exec said, it's our job to preserve the integrity of the price point. Toby, there is a lot of chatter online about this move. People are very passionate about it. I would say most people welcome the welcome the change. Others were sad to see Pepsi Go.
Toby Howell
This $1.50 hot dog price is holy. It is the important marketing tool Costco has. It's just become very synonymous with the Costco brand. I mean, you already introduced the concept of a loss leader earlier in the section of our show. Costco loses money on this deal. Let's be honest here. They cannot actually sell a hot dog in a and a Coke for a dollar and 50 cents. But because it brings people through the door, it gets them shopping on other things where they do make a profit on. They do continue to offer this deal. And yeah, so part of me thinks that this announcement is just to get that, that hot dog deal back in the news again. Costco has been facing some backlash on its D policy. So announcing that Coke is coming in instead of Pepsi, it's just another way to get that headline reading about the dollar and 50 cent deal. But I think people are excited because Coke Classic is a larger share of the market. Pepsi's market share has been slowly falling since its peak in 1995. It used to be 15% of the US carbonated soft drink market. It's now right around 8%. So maybe it is something that is saving money. Maybe it is just something that they're like, are more people like Coke, let's go back to Coke. But I think people are happy in general.
Neal Freyman
Yeah. I mean if you go down the line though, for fast food companies, whether they use Coke or Pepsi, Coke definitely has the bigger hitters as McDonald's and Burger King, but it doesn't have everyone. Taco Bell uses Pepsi. Buffalo Wild Wings uses Pepsi. Panera uses Pepsi. And then Subway last year announced it was switching from Coke Coke to Pepsi. So I would say Coke has the bigger power players, but Pepsi has, you know, a few. Taco Bell is a big, is a big contract.
Toby Howell
Where do you land on the Coke versus Pepsi? This is such a tired debate.
Neal Freyman
I can't believe it is a very tired debate. Toby, I don't even want to indulge you, but I, I haven't had Pepsi in many years. I haven't had Coke in many.
Toby Howell
Yeah, you're not a big, I'm not.
Neal Freyman
A big soda guy, but I mean, actually when I do drink a Coke like once a year. So good Pepsi I don't know about. If last week's head spinning news felt like devouring a massive lunch at 2:00pm, then try to regain your appetite. We've got a 5:30pm dinner reservation. Here's what you need to know about the busy week ahead. The Fed is going to meet on Wednesday for the first time this year and for the first time of the Trump presidency. The actual interest rate announcement won't be so exciting because the Fed is pretty much guaranteed to hold rates steady. But chair Jerome Powell's press conference should be must see tv. We're all going to be keen to learn how many rate hikes he thinks will be on the table this year and how he'll respond to Trump's recent threat at Davos that he demand rates come down.
Toby Howell
Yeah, I think that's going to be the exciting part. How is he going to navigate this relationship that he once again has with President Trump if this is the first meeting, which it likely will be, that they don't raise interest rates, I don't think Donald Trump is going to like that. So it's going to be a little bit of drama coming out, even though this is just a kind of standard Fed meeting.
Neal Freyman
If all that weren't enough to keep Wall street busy, we're about to enter what Jim Cramer calls a sheer hell week due to a blast of earnings. And this is one of those rare times you should probably listen to him. More than 100 of the S&P 500 companies will release their Q4 financials this week, highlighted by big tech players like Microsoft, Tesla and Metta. And I feel like what happened with Deep Seek today is going to throw every narrative out of the window and you're going to see these CEOs have to respond to what happened over there.
Toby Howell
My hot take is I'm looking at Starbucks is earnings reports to figure out how its turnaround is going under new CEO Brian Nicholl. They just released their first kind of national ad campaign that showed baristas writing names in Sharpies on customers cups. They've been really trying to focus on this return to that coffee house feel. So it's, I'm curious to see how that focus is translating into results.
Neal Freyman
Trump's cabinet confirmations here and continue with the most important of them all, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. On Wednesday, Trump tapped RFK Jr. To lead the Department of Health and Human Services, which would grant him major control over 18 agencies that oversee health care and food policy. RFK Jr's nomination has been very controversial over his previous conspiracy theorizing, such as debunked claims linking vaccines to autism. So there should be serious fireworks over his past comments and views and major implications for Big Pharma and Big Food should he be confirmed and major implications.
Toby Howell
Of related to another story we talked about today. Remember, Kennedy would oversee the cdc, which would be in charge of kind of managing the bird flu and make sure it doesn't translate to humans. So that's just another thing that would be under his purvey and control should he be confirmed.
Neal Freyman
Today, memorials and ceremonies are taking place all over the world for International Holocaust Remembrance Day. This year's commemoration is special. It marks the 80th anniversary of when Soviet troops liberated Auschwitz. And finally on Wednesday is Lunar New Year. With it comes the year of the snake. The wood snake, to be specific. Every year, the lead up to this holiday sets off an epic travel rush, which analysts call the biggest migration of humans ever in China. More than 510 million train trips and 90 million flights are expected to be taken during a 40 day period around Lunar New Year as people head home to celebrate with their families.
Toby Howell
Yeah, so it's the Chinese zodiac calendar you give. It's a 12 year cycle represented by 12 days, different animals. So year of 2025 will be snakes. In Chinese culture, snakes are considered symbols of harvest, procreation, spirituality and good fortune. But they're also considered symbols of cunning, evil, threat in terror, terror and then again, Chinese cosmology. Each year is also associated with one of five elements, gold, wood, water, fire and earth, which create this six year cycle. So this is the year of the wood snake. So what specifically is the wood snake? That is a charming, intelligent and creative, but also secretive, cunning, sometimes ruthless. So 20, 25 babies, I don't know if you can trust them, but I think they, they do have some of that je ne sais quoi.
Neal Freyman
That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful start to the week. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning brew daily@morning brew.com and if you're enjoying the show, do your best Paul Revere impression and gallop through the countryside telling everyone you see about it. If that doesn't quite appeal to you or your horsemanship skills are a little bit lacking, just take Toby Sharing advice instead.
Toby Howell
That was pretty good, Neil. But I want you to share the pod with all these snakes in your life. All those creative and charming but also cunning and ruthless friends. We all have them. It's their year. So send them this show.
Neal Freyman
Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Eugenio Ogu is our our technical director. Garrett Peck is on audio, hair and makeup. Lost a 12 leg parlay last night. Devin Emery is our Chief Content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
Toby Howell
Great show day, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.
Morning Brew Daily – Episode Summary: "The Chinese AI Startup Rivaling OpenAI & Trump Fires Tariffs at Colombia?"
Release Date: January 27, 2025
Hosts: Neal Freyman and Toby Howell
Overview:
Neal Freyman and Toby Howell delve into the groundbreaking developments in the AI sector, focusing on Deep Seq, a Chinese AI research lab that has recently launched an open-source model named R1. This model not only matches but in some benchmarks outperforms OpenAI's offerings, posing a significant threat to American AI dominance.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Neal Freyman [02:17]:
"I see why you like it. You get context from the headline and the reaction of the market all in one glance."
Toby Howell [03:57]:
"Neil, permission to tell everyone listening about my favorite Yahoo Finance feature."
Neal Freyman [05:14]:
"The idea was that you have to spend hundreds of billions, tens of billions of dollars to build AI models. If you can just do it in five with $5.6 million like Deep Seq did, then maybe more people could get involved in these."
Overview:
The hosts discuss former President Donald Trump's aggressive stance on trade, specifically his recent imposition of tariffs on Colombia. This unexpected move targeted a long-standing US ally, signaling a new era of economic coercion.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Toby Howell [08:54]:
"Trump identified this as a point of leverage because if 25% tariffs go into effect, that makes those goods cost a lot more to ship into the United States."
Neal Freyman [10:08]:
"Looks like the Colombian president refused to accept these flights. Now, he has accepted many hundreds of migrant deportations coming from the United States."
Toby Howell [11:32]:
"So it doesn't look like it's going to really affect too much in the US Economy if we lose Colombia, maybe coffee harder."
Overview:
Egg prices in the US have surged dramatically due to a combination of supply constraints from bird flu outbreaks and unprecedented demand from consumers.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Neal Freyman [14:01]:
"A dozen large grade A eggs was $4.15 in December. That's up from $3.65 in November just one month before."
Toby Howell [15:01]:
"The problem with this bird flu epidemic is that you have to call basically an entire flock if one chicken, if one bird is infected because that's how infective this disease is."
Neal Freyman [16:03]:
"They're paying over $7 for a dozen eggs and they're discounting it for us."
Overview:
Neal and Toby highlight two significant "winners" in the weekend's news: the rise of sports betting parlays and Coca-Cola securing a prime deal with Costco.
Key Points:
Sports Betting Parlays:
Coca-Cola's Costco Deal:
Notable Quotes:
Toby Howell [18:13]:
"These types of bets are popular with sports fans because they represent the tantalizing opportunity to turn small wagers into big winnings."
Neal Freyman [19:27]:
"They accounted for 27% of the money wagered in those three states, but they delivered 56% of total revenue."
Toby Howell [22:55]:
"This $1.50 hot dog price is holy. It is the important marketing tool Costco has."
Overview:
The hosts touch upon several key events and developments to watch in the coming weeks, including federal meetings, corporate earnings, and significant cultural observances.
Key Points:
Federal Reserve Meeting:
Earnings Season:
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Nomination:
Cultural Observances:
Notable Quotes:
Neal Freyman [25:29]:
"If your claim to fame as a chef is making omelets, you might want to pick up a few new recipes."
Toby Howell [26:16]:
"I'm looking at Starbucks is earnings reports to figure out how its turnaround is going under new CEO Brian Nicholl."
Neal Freyman [27:12]:
"RFK Jr's nomination has been very controversial over his previous conspiracy theorizing, such as debunked claims linking vaccines to autism."
Neal Freyman and Toby Howell provide a comprehensive overview of the major events shaping the business and economic landscape. From disruptive advancements in AI by Deep Seq challenging American tech supremacy, aggressive trade tactics by Trump against Colombia, soaring egg prices due to supply and demand imbalances, to significant corporate moves and upcoming political and cultural events, the episode offers listeners valuable insights to start their day informed and engaged.
For More Information:
Listen to the full episode of "Morning Brew Daily" on your preferred podcast platform or YouTube. For feedback or questions, email morningbrew.daily@morningbrew.com.