Morning Brew Daily: The Fed Cuts Rates Again & Can Oracle Deliver for Investors on AI?
Episode Date: December 11, 2025
Hosts: Neal Freyman & Toby Howell

Episode Overview

This episode of Morning Brew Daily dives into three big topics:

1. The Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate cut amid internal dissent and complicated economic signals.
2. Oracle’s mixed fortunes as it tries to stake its claim in the AI revolution, raising questions about tech investing.
3. Lighthearted but notable policy proposals—like gyms in airports—and rapid-fire stats on consumer self-checkout theft, workplace dynamics, and why you might still be a teenager at 32.

Neal and Toby bring their usual wit and clarity, breaking down what these moves mean for your wallet, the business world, and a few cultural quirks.

Main Segment 1: The Fed’s Rate Cut and Its Deep Divisions

[03:02 – 08:35]

Key Points:

• Fed Cuts Again: The Federal Reserve dropped rates by 25 basis points, marking three consecutive cuts and the lowest rates since 2022.
• Unusual Discord: For the first time since 2019, there was a rare triple dissent among policymakers—one wanted a bigger cut to boost jobs, two wanted no change to fight inflation.
  • “A house divided cannot stand, but a Fed divided, it can still cut rates…” – Toby [03:02]
• Jerome Powell’s Last Act: With his term ending soon and political pressure mounting (especially from Trump), Powell acknowledges mixed data and aims for a 'soft landing' before leaving office.
• Jobs Data Recalibration: Powell revealed recent U.S. payroll data may have been overstated by about 60,000 jobs a month, signaling weaker employment than previously thought.
  • Quote: “Powell’s quote from yesterday…a very large number of participants agree that risks [exist] to the upside for unemployment and the upside for inflation. So what do you do? You’ve got one tool. You can't do two things at once.” – Toby [05:47]
• Impact for Listeners:
  • Savings account yields are falling with lower Fed rates.
  • Mortgage rates remain high despite cuts, because they respond more to long-term bond yields than the Fed’s short-term moves.
  • “If you are in a high-yield savings account or any savings account, it’s likely that your interest rate is going down.” – Neal [06:33]
• Powell’s Farewell?: He’s determined to hand off a healthy economy but faces daunting cross-pressures—and a possible early exit if Trump gets his way.

Main Segment 2: Oracle’s Sweeping (and Risky) Bet on AI

[08:35 – 11:49]

Key Points:

• Earnings Rollercoaster: Oracle’s last quarter disappointed investors after prior AI-fueled surges. Revenue growth (14% YoY) missed projections, and heavy spending sparked concern.
  • “The company’s stock fell more than 11% after its latest earnings…Capital expenditures…came in at $12 billion for the quarter, nearly $4 billion more than the street anticipated.” – Neal [08:35]
• Debt and Dependence: Oracle’s titanic investment in data center infrastructure is funded by debt—raising alarm given much of its revenue surge hinges on one customer: OpenAI.
• Investor Skepticism: “I always thought it was dangerous for the company to take on significant leverage while tying its future to a startup. Looks like more investors are joining in.” – Michael O’Rourke (quoted by Neal) [09:45]
• Future Plans:
  • Oracle’s execs were vague but floated a “bring your own chips” (BYOC) model—the new “BYOB”—to ease capex burdens.
  • “BYOB is out, BYOC is in.” – Toby [11:49]
• Wider Stakes:
  • Oracle is now a central AI bellwether, alongside Nvidia, despite its more mundane roots in database software.
  • Its fate is deeply intertwined with OpenAI’s, amplifying volatility for tech investors.

Main Segment 3: Gyms in Airports—The DOT’s New Vision

[11:49 – 15:02]

Key Points:

• Policy Proposal: The Department of Transportation wants to fund gyms, family security lanes, and healthier food at airports (“Make Travel Family Friendly Again”) using Biden-era infrastructure money.
  • “Running to your gate…isn’t the only exercise you’ll be doing at the airport…” — Toby [11:49]
• Notable Moment: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and Health Secretary RFK Jr. demonstrated with literal pull-ups at Reagan National’s Terminal 2.
  • “RFK did 20 pull ups in this press conference, which is more than I can certainly do.” – Toby [15:02]
• Criticism: Critics note most travelers just want:
  • Lower fares and fewer fees (68% per Ipsos, 2025)
  • More comfortable seats
  • Faster security lines
• Neal’s Quip: “If you do put a gym in an airport, then you also need a locker room as well.” [13:32]
• Public Reception: The plan is viewed as well-intended but off-target given the real passenger priorities.

Neil’s Numbers – News by the Digits

[17:15 – 24:09]

1. Self-Checkout Theft Soars [17:15]

• 27% of self-checkout users admit to intentional theft (up from 15% in 2023).
• Millennials, Gen Z, high earners, and men are most likely culprits.
• 31% feel no remorse; 35% see theft as "compensation" for unpaid self-checkout labor.
  • “The average richer people...saying it’s because of the cost of living...maybe it’s more a sign of a moral shift.” – Toby [18:30]
• Neal jokes about retailers locking up basics while self-checkout is the true loss leader.

2. Political Disagreement Hurts Sports (and Work) Performance [19:11]

• Golfers perform worse and earn less when paired with someone of opposite political affiliation (an average 0.2 strokes per round; $13k-23k less per tournament).
  • “Anxiety not even related to politics…makes golfing harder.” – Toby [20:56]
• The effect is strongest in direct proximity (putting, driving), and researchers say the findings likely apply to workplaces as well.
• Neal riffs: “I’m just imagining Scottie Scheffler sitting over a putt being like, I can’t believe what this guy thinks about Obama.” [22:04]

3. You’re a Teenager ‘til 32 (Neurologically) [22:10]

• New study: adolescence, in brain terms, extends from age 9 to 32.
• Early brain efficiency peaks then prunes back connections; adulthood doesn’t start until 32.
  • “It is a great justification: any time you have a bonehead mistake, say, ‘I’m still developing!’” – Toby [23:11]
• Neal jokes this explains adult festival antics (e.g. SantaCon).

Quick Headlines & Quips

[24:09 – 27:51]

• US to Require 5-Year Social Media History for Tourists [24:09]
  • Policy proposal would make US the only major economy to see a decline in international tourist spending this year.
  • “Five years of social media is a long time…so much information into your lives.” – Toby [25:01]
• Philip Rivers: Grandpa QB Returns to the NFL [25:40]
  • Rivers, retired NFL quarterback and grandfather, called up by the Colts due to injuries for a possible playoff run.
  • He’d reset his Hall of Fame eligibility if he takes the field again.
  • Neal: “He’s been running the same offense at his son’s high school in Alabama as the Colts are running.” [26:38]

Memorable Quotes & Light Moments

• On Fed Discord:
  • “Get Streisand and Voldemort in the same room. That is a dinner party I want to go to.” – Toby [02:15]
• On Oracle’s Shift:
  • “BYOB is out, BYOC is in.” – Toby [11:49]
• On Airport Gyms:
  • “Most Americans want to pull up to the bar, not a pull-up bar.” – Neal [13:32]
• On Political Golfing:
  • “I’m just imagining Scottie Scheffler sitting over a putt being like, I can’t believe what this guy thinks about Obama.” – Neal [22:04]
• On Adulthood:
  • “You are technically a teenager until age 32, at least your brain is.” – Neal [22:10]

Timestamps for Core Segments

• [03:02] – Fed Rate Cut and Discord
• [08:35] – Oracle’s AI Gamble and Investor Worries
• [11:49] – Gyms in Airports Proposal
• [17:15] – Neil’s Numbers (Self-Checkout Theft, Golf Study, Adolescent Brain)
• [24:09] – Quick Headlines: US Tourism Hurdles & NFL Grandpa
• [27:51+] – Outro banter

Conclusion & Takeaway

Neal and Toby unpack critical economic and business news—making sense of the Fed’s infighting, the AI arms race’s impact on stocks like Oracle, and quirky policy ideas—all with a blend of sharp analysis and signature humor. Whether you care about your wallet, emerging tech, or just want to feel in-the-know (and entertained), this episode delivers.

For the full experience, listen on your favorite podcast app and catch the duo’s trademark banter throughout the show.