
Why TikTok could actually be banned and Taylor Swift's World Tour ends
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Toby Howell
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Neal Freyman
Yeah, I do.
Toby Howell
Now, where did I put my keys? You will find them where you left them. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, llc. Member NYSE SIPC.
Neal Freyman
Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
Neal Freyman
Today, President Elect Trump said he can't guarantee that tariffs won't lead to inflation.
Toby Howell
Then it's the end of an era, literally. As Taylor Swift wrapped up her two year mega tour. It's Monday, December 9th. Let's ride.
Neal Freyman
Oh, my God. Can you believe what happened in baseball last night? Superstar Juan Soto has reportedly signed a 15 year, $765 million deal with the New York Mets, the richest contract in professional sports history. It surpasses the 10 year, $700 million contract Shohei Ohtani received from the Los Angeles Dodgers last year. And unlike Ohtani, who deferred 97% of that money for a decade, Soto is deferring none of it. Toby, the best part about this for Soto is he won't have to spend any of this money on movers. He's coming to the Mets from the crosstown Yankees.
Toby Howell
I mean, the Mets topped the Yankees. This really does not happen if you look at the general power dynamics between the two teams in New York. But Steve Cohen, the hedge fund billionaire, ever since he took control of the franchise in 2020, has just operated at a different level. He wasn't going to let money be the thing that made him miss out on this generational star. When Steve Cohen took control of the Mets in 2020, he said he'd be surprised and disappointed if they didn't win a world series within three to five years. This is year number five, so he's clearly going.
Neal Freyman
All is taking, Mr. Cohen. You can't beat the Phillies.
Toby Howell
Can't beat the Phillies. Now a word from our sponsor, Sage. Sage is back. So this one goes out to all the finance pros that listen to Morning Brew daily.
Neal Freyman
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Well, wait till you hear my sick beats, Neil.
Neal Freyman
Okay, you keep working on that, Toby, but for the rest of y'all, visit sage.com for more info.
Toby Howell
Let's dive into some headlines from the weekend that you may have missed. Up first, get your last scrolls in on TikTok, because it's looking like your favorite time wasting app might indeed be heading for a ban. On Friday, a U.S. appeals court upheld the law passed by Congress earlier this year that could lead to the ban of the app by mid January. The motivation behind that initial law was national security concerns. Lawmakers claim that TikTok could fork over its data on its 170 million US users to the Chinese government. TikTok's lawyers have pushed back, saying that the law violates the First Amendment, an argument that the three judge appeals court rejected. While this does increase the likelihood that TikTok is going to get banned, TikTok has said it plans to appeal the ruling and send the case to the Supreme Court. So Neal, it's not over yet, but it's looking a little dicey.
Neal Freyman
Time is absolutely ticking. It looks like there's going to be three potential avenues here. Trump could Trump has said that he wants to keep Tick Tock going, but there are limited ways he can do that because this law banning it was passed by Congress back in April. So Congress when he to pass a law, another law to remove the ban and it was passed in bipartisan fashion. So there is a lot of support among lawmakers. So one thing Trump could do is tell Apple and Google through their app stores that he won't enforce the ban. And it would be this handshake agreement where he would just be like, guys, I'm not going to send the DOJ after. You can keep Tick Tock in your app stores. We can keep this thing going even with the ban, ostensibly from Congress. But that doesn't, that would probably spook Apple and Google. The second option here is that Tick Tock appeals to the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court files an injunction blocking the ban from going into effect before January 19th. And then the final option is for TikTok to sell it to a US company or a US investor group. That does not seem likely, even though people like Steve Mnuchin, the former Treasury Treasury Secretary, have started to, you know, to make bids. But, you know, China will likely block the sale of this app from, from bytedance. So Three not great options for Tik Tok, and we're only a little over a month away from this being banned.
Toby Howell
And what does this mean for you though, as someone who maybe has TikTok on their phone or something like that? If the ban goes into effect, then it is the app stores that would face fines for continue to host it, but they're not going to go in and delete it off your phone. So you will still have it. Reminds me of Flappy Bird back in the day when the developer took it off the app store. You could still play it, but what starts to happen is that TikTok no longer can ship updates to the app, so eventually it starts to get a little buggy, a little laggy. So if you have TikTok on your phone, it won't be going anywhere. It just might start to degrade in performance if this ban goes into effect. But yeah, and the final thing that you mentioned, that a sale would probably be blocked by Beijing. Part of the issue too is just Tik Tok is an extremely valuable company, likely worth over $200 billion. So the a group of companies in the US that could feasibly buy it is basically big tech and there will be a lot of antitrust concerns if someone like Mehta goes and tries to buy TikTok. So it is very unlikely that a sale will actually go down.
Neal Freyman
They're literally going to have to throw a Hail Mary to either the Supreme Court or Trump. And so we'll see what happens. I mean, January 19th is just around the corner. Let's move on to the major developments in Syria. On Sunday, Syrian rebels seize the capital city of Damascus, capping off a surprise offensive that has toppled the authoritarian Assad family dynasty that had ruled Syria for more than 50 oppressive years. As the rebels were taking Damascus, President Bashar al Assad resigned and fled to Moscow, where he was granted asylum. Russian state media said Syrians in the country and many others in the diaspora celebrated the end of Assad's brutal dictatorship. It's a seismic turn of events that could shake up the geopolitical order in the Middle east and beyond. In particular, Assad's fall is a stinging blow to Russia and Iran, which had both backed his regime and poured tons of financial resources into keeping him in power. But when he needed them the most, Russia and Iran weren't there to save him, bogged down by other conflic conflicts, such as Russia's war in Ukraine. Among Western leaders, the feeling now is relief, but also apprehension about a power vacuum. President Biden Called it a moment of historic opportunity for the long suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their country, but added it was also a moment of risk and uncertainty. Toby markets didn't really have a strong reaction to this. Syria doesn't produce much oil and its economy has shrunk mightily from sanctions and civil war. But the long term global ramifications of this are big. Given all of the power players involved.
Toby Howell
It is a major shake up in the region for sure. Let's go back and look at just Assad's. The younger Assad's time in power when he was first came in and succeeded his father, there was a little bit of optimism because he was younger, he was kind of, he was tech forward, he was an ophthalmologist. He didn't really reflect the kind of brutal regime that his father did. But then he and he actually slowly started to lift some economic restrictions in the country, let in foreign banks, unshackled the private sector a little bit. So Damascus started flourishing a little bit. You saw tourism swelling. But then he started to follow in the footsteps of his father, began cracking down on dissident political ideology and the economy started to suffer in result. According to the World Bank, Syria's GDP has shrank 54% from 2010 to 2021. As of 2022, 69% of the population was in poverty, with almost a quarter of Syrians affected by extreme poverty. So it really has been a tough time for Syria, especially economically because you're right, it used to be a little bit more of an oil powerhouse. Used to produce around 400,000 barrels of oil a day in the 2008-2010 range. As of 2015, that reached just 25,000 barrels per day. So it has kind of shrunk away from the global economic scene. The jobs market did its best Dennis Rodman impression and rebounded impressively in November. Remember, we were coming off some pretty distorted October data due to the hurricanes in striking workers. But the pendulum swung back towards stability with the US adding 227,000 jobs last month, beating expectations of 200,000. Those solid numbers confirm that the 12,000 jobs added in October, which were eventually revised up to a 36,000 gain, were in fact tied to the natural disasters and strikes and not indicative of a broader trend. However, the unemployment rate did tick up slightly to 4.2%, reflecting a slight pullback in hiring, while the duration people are staying unemployed hit more than five months, the highest since April 2022. So the general takeaway from this report Neal, is that the labor market is healthy, albeit with a few warning signs.
Neal Freyman
Yeah, this is just another ho hum, very solid jobs report. Just think Juan Soto hitting a gap or, you know, taking a double. So the job market is perfectly fine. It is expected to slow a little bit next year. JP Morgan expects that the US will add 113,000 jobs a month next year, which is down from about 180,000 this year. So we are mellowing out in the job market. But the unemployment rate, even at 4.2% where it's now, that is considered, you know, historically low, you want it in the low 4% range. That's basically everyone who wants a job can get a job in the economy. Markets reacted perfectly well. You know, the S and P shot up to its 57th high of the year. It is now up 28% this year. So markets were absolutely not disturbed at all. This was just another, you know, dinger to left.
Toby Howell
I think the one thing though that had some economists a little bit concerned was that people are staying unemployed for longer. And I think it does reflect the general sense out there that if you have a job, the job market is obviously good for you, but if you don't have a job, it's one of the tougher. It's a weird conundrum because again, we are adding jobs, unemployment is low, but people who are out of a job are just finding it harder to get back into work, showing some of the apprehension these companies have from for hiring. So that's just potentially the one warning sign in what was otherwise a pretty solid report.
Neal Freyman
That is a good point. Jerome Powell won't be needing to put up an open to work banner on LinkedIn come January 20th. In an interview with NBC News yesterday, President Elect Trump said he wouldn't seek to boot Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve despite his hostility toward Powell during his first term in the White House. I don't see it, Trump told Meet the Press in his first sit down broadcast interview since winning the election. In regards to firing Powell, Trump said, I think if I told him to, he would, but if I asked him to, he probably wouldn't. Trump allowing Powell to continue on as the US's top economic policymaker should alleviate some concerns about the Fed's independence under a second Trump administration concentration. During his campaign, Trump wondered aloud whether he should have influence over the Fed's interest rate decisions, spooking investors who consider the Fed's independence from short term political matters fundamental to stable markets. So, Toby, looks like we're going to be hearing a lot more from Jay Powell for at least another couple of years. His term ends May 2026.
Toby Howell
Right. Remember, Trump was the person who originally elevated Powell into the role, and then it's been kind of a rocky relationship ever since with Trump not happy with how that the fact that Powell didn't lower interest rates more quickly during his first term, the toying with potentially firing Powell has always been something that has spooked a lot of people on Wall Street. And I think if you zoom out, Trump does not want to spook people on Wall street, which is why he's kind of backed away from some of that rhetoric. But, yeah, I do think that these two are going to make an entertaining duo, at least over this next term, given how they've clashed heads in the past.
Neal Freyman
And then another major takeaway from that inter on Meet the Press yesterday was that Trump was posed by the interviewer. The interview brought up that, you know, the broad consensus among economists is that his tariffs, you know, he's pledged 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and China, 10% additional tariffs on China, that those will raise prices. And, and the interview asks, like, what do you think of that? And he's like, I can't guarantee that, that they won't raise prices. I can't even guarantee tomorrow, he said. So that's sort of an admission that, you know, the broadcast economic view that tariffs will lead to higher prices has, has sort. He's sort of acknowledging that. So we'll see. You know, he continued to pledge that he will slap tariffs on. Those are major tariffs on those countries come his first day in office. So I think we should all pretty much brace for that. It is the end of an Eras after Taylor Swift played her final show on the Eras tour last night in Vancouver. Spanning nearly two years and 152 shows across five continents, it'll be remembered as a cultural phenomenon on par with Beetle Mania or Woodstock. It was also a economic juggernaut. Even when the first leg ended in 2023, the Eras tour was already the highest grossing tour of all time, earning more than $1 billion across 66 shows. Tack on an additional 86 shows this year, and the final haul is estimated to be $2.2 billion. Meanwhile, the eras tour drove a surge in consumer spending that helped global economies recover from the pandemic. The 2023 leg contributed $4.3 billion to US GDP, while other countries cited Swift shows for boosting inflation in their official government data. Toby the ERAS tour had this grip on culture and Commerce that we may not see again for a long time. What do you think its main legacy will be?
Toby Howell
Well, I actually just first want to give a shout out to the sheer ability of Taylor Swift to continue this for over 2 years. I crunched the numbers so this detour spanned 2 years. She went to 5 continents, 50 cities, 152 shows. If she performed at each one for about 3 hours each, that means she was singing and dancing out there for 456 hours, which means 18.6 days of nonstop performing. It truly was just this absolute juggernaut in terms of the legacy. Just think about all of the subplots that it spun off. I mean, there was the friendship bracelets that actually ended up being the way that Travis Kelce and her got in touch. There was this revolt against Ticketmaster for these higher ticket prices and their site breaking down. There was the concert film that it was the book that she released. There was the booming economies in every single city that she reacted to. I mean, it is still so funny that Sweden mentioned it in their official government data because she brought in higher than expected inflation when she brought her, you know, tour there. So just I think all the absolute subplots that it spun off is going to be its big legacy.
Neal Freyman
Yeah, there was this new term that was coined which was Swift economics. And it was just the, the insane secondary impacts of her tour and all of her various business lines. You know, over the course of this tour, Taylor Swift was named time person of the year. She became a billionaire, the first person who became a billionaire just because of her music. And she wrote this book, which we didn't even talk about, but she wrote this book selling it directly through Target. It sold 814,000 print copies over Thanksgiving weekend. It's the biggest nonfiction book release of the year. It is the second biggest nonfiction book book release of all time. Even if it was riddled with grammars and typos, it seemed nobody cared. She put out this movie, the eras tour movie which would shattered all records for a for concert films. Her merch sold like crazy. She sold a half $1 billion in merch. So she is an economy unto herself.
Toby Howell
What is next for her though? It's probably a rerecording of reputation. A lot of people are as excited for that. She's been teasing it at all these shows. So the Taylor Swift train just continue.
Neal Freyman
A little, you know.
Toby Howell
A little. Yeah. Potentially. Up next, our winners of the weekend.
Neal Freyman
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Start converting your B2B audience into high quality leads today. LinkedIn ads will even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign. Go to LinkedIn.commbd to claim your credit. That's LinkedIn.commbd terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn the place to be to be. You've heard us talk about the Fed and falling interest rates in the past, so here's a refresher on what comes next. The Fed announced a rate cut and the plan is for more rate cuts later this year and in 2025, which means it's a great time to lock in a 6% or higher yield with a bond account at public.com public.com's bond.
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Toby Howell
But your yield isn't locked in until the time of purchase, so you've got to act fast. Luckily, signing up takes just a few minutes.
Neal Freyman
Get started at public.com/morning brew that's public.com/morning brew brought to you by Public Investing member FINRA and sip. See the yield is the average annualized yield to worst across all 10 bonds in the bond account before fees as of October 3, 2024. Your yield to worst is not locked in until the time of purchase. A bond's yield to worst is not guaranteed. You can earn less if you do not hold the bonds to maturity or the issuer defaults. Not an investment recommendation. All investing involves risk. Visit public.com disclosure/bond account for more info. Welcome to Winners of the Weekend, the segment where Toby and I picked two things that picked up the tab at brunch. I won the pre show Taylor Swift Karaoke competition so I get to go first. And my winner is Southern Methodist University football team who earned the final spot in the first ever 12 team College football playoff which was revealed yesterday. And sneaking into the 12 slot. SMU's addition meant the the perennial juggernaut Alabama was on the outside looking in. SM Youth Rise highlights the influence of outside money in college football. A one time powerhouse in the 80s, SMU has been rebuilding its program and during all the conference realignment in recent years, decided it wanted to join the Atlantic Coast Conference. To gain entrance, the small private school in Texas made a unique offer to the SEC. It would forego the conference's TV revenue, an average of $45 million per year, and would instead raise the money itself. Luckily, SMU had an ace in the hole, David B. Miller. Miller is a billionaire oil and gas mogul who helped the school's athletic department raise a record $159 million ahead of its move to the SEC. It's a couple hundred billion dollars, miller told Yahoo Sports. I'm not losing sleep over it. Meanwhile, everyone is entering uncharted territory here. The NCAA expanded its College football playoff from four teams to 12 teams this year, offering more games, more attention and more TV revenue. The schools are all competing for a $150 million prize pool with the finalists collecting 20 million apiece.
Toby Howell
A lot of money on the line. SMU is interesting because they are one of the only teams. They actually are the only team in college football history to be handed down the death penalty by the ncaa. And it's not as bad as that actually sounds. But basically they were banned from competing in the sport for two years back in the 80s as a result of these recruiting violations where they were ironically paying players. So if only those boosters from the 80s could have. Fast forward to today's college football landscape. It is a completely different world where paying players is the norm now and you actually have to in order to compete. So I do think it is fascinating how this school that has such a checkered history is now raised a ton of money, has these oil boosters who are willing to put the money in to let the team compete on the national stage.
Neal Freyman
All right, so I just want to give everyone the schedule here, what they can expect from the College Football Playoff. There are four teams that are getting a buy. Oregon, Georgia, Boise State and Arizona State. A real motley crew there.
Toby Howell
I love Boise State's blue field, so I'm opting for them in that group.
Neal Freyman
And then the teams that are playing in the first round game will be hosting hosting them at home fields for the first time. Most of the time existing. In the existing playoff structure there had been neutral sites, but now they're hosting it at home fields, which should be a lot of fun, a lot more energy. Texas is hosting Clemson, Penn State is hosting smu, Notre Dame is hosting Indiana, and Tennessee travels to Ohio State. There's going to be a month of college football before the championship game on January 20th.
Toby Howell
Just shout out to my Hoosiers. I was recently asked to crown a football team that I wanted to root for. A lot of you guys are listeners sent in teams to root for. I did pick Indiana, so I'm rooting for them. The only person that I want in my corner though is Timothy Chalamet. He jumped on college game day this past weekend. The man knows ball absolutely blew up the Internet with his with his picks. Picked some correct matching games as well. So I hope Lisa Al Ghaib is on the side of the Hoosiers because the man knows how to pick them. Dating back to the 90s, the government has required companies to offer great parental leave policies, subsidized daycares, and even offered cash payments to parents at one point. Earlier this year, the government launched a dating app. But this experiment moving to a four day workweek could try and change Japan's work heavy culture and hopefully free up time, especially for women to have more balance in their lives.
Neal Freyman
That time is the critical point of this because the gap between men and women when it comes to housework is one of the biggest among all developed countries. Women in Japan engage in five times more unpaid work than men. That's like childcare and elder care. That's according to the imf. So the Japanese government, the Tokyo government is seeing these stats and saying a lot of women are not having kids probably because they have. They just don't want to take the burden of more work because they're already working so much. So maybe a four day workweek could free up time. You know, we've talked a lot about the four day workweek. I've never heard of it in the, in the same breath as, you know, improving fertility. So this is a new way of, of trying that out. Like you said, Tokyo government has tried everything for decades to, to kickstart more, more population, but it just hasn't worked. So we'll see whether this thing coming down in April will boost, boost the population a bit.
Toby Howell
So maybe there is this organization called four Day Day Week Global which obviously advocates for a four day work week across multiple countries. And they have found through multiple trials that men reported spending 22% more time on child care, 23% more time on housework during a four day workweek. So there is data to support the fact that they can, you know, alleviate this burden on their spouses, on their partners. So the upside is definitely there. This four day workweek organization is very interesting as well, because what they do is they actually help companies figure out how to manage this. Because it's not just something where you're like, everyone gets Fridays off because people, you still need the company to function on Friday. So what they do is they help create these flexible work arrangements, ensure that people have coverage throughout the week. They basically just help companies pilot this program of trying to take one day off. Some opted for like every other week. There is more nuance to it than.
Neal Freyman
Just saying, hey, Monday through Friday through Monday through Thursday.
Toby Howell
Yeah, there is more to it than that.
Neal Freyman
It's Monday. So per tradition, here's your preview of the major events in the week ahead. We've got a big inflation report coming up on Wednesday. The consumer price index is expected to show prices rose 2.7% in the past year, which is still above typical levels and part of that bumpy slowdown in inflation we've been seeing for over a year. If it comes in on target, then you can absolutely lock in a rate cut for the Fed's final meeting of the year next week. If it comes in hot, then this is when it gets a little interesting. It could cause the Fed to signal a slowdown in its rate cuts for 2025 and perhaps put this stock market rally on ice.
Toby Howell
There is this delicate dance between the jobs report and the inflation report, with each one ebbing and flowing in terms of importance to the Fed. For a while all eyes were on the inflation numbers, but then as those started to ease downwards, we started to turn our attention to the jobs report. Now we're back to paying a little bit more attention to the inflation report because as we mentioned at the top of the show, Jobs look pretty solid right now. So now we're just in that last mile trying to get down to that fed goal of 2% inflation.
Neal Freyman
And then Apple's latest software update, iOS 18.2 is supposed to drop today. It includes improvements to Apple intelligence, such as integrating Siri with Chat GPT, allowing you to create Gen Mojis with text prompts, and having AI analyze objects in photos. Which one are you looking forward to the most?
Toby Howell
I was going to flip the question right back on you, Neil, as a recent iPhone purchaser. These matter to you.
Neal Freyman
It's bizarre. I've always talked about iOS updates and I've just been like, okay, that seems interesting. I'm sure a lot of people will like those and play with the new features. But yeah, this is the first time where I'm like, huh, all right, this is actually going to impact my life a lot.
Toby Howell
I'm pretty excited by the upgraded Siri though, because again, this is a pain that you haven't known, but Siri has just been like painfully obtuse for the majority of its history. Now that the fact that you can go into a prompt powered by OpenAI and continue a conversation with Siri to actually get relevant information, hopefully this upgraded Siri is actually upgraded.
Neal Freyman
And then finally Disney will begin selling tickets on Tuesday to its first Asia based cruise ship, a Marvel themed voyage that will depart from Singapore a year from now.
Toby Howell
Toby Boarding I love cruises and I have been consistently trying to get my friends to do a cruise but everyone says no. But this seems like something fun for me. I do love Marvel as well. So you might make the invite list. Or would you? Would you?
Neal Freyman
It's part of this big push into Asia that Disney is doing. But what kind of cruises are you talking about? Like the big mega cruise?
Toby Howell
Yeah, I just, I had an experience when I was like 10 years old where they had free ice cream stations around and ever since then I've thought cruises are the greatest thing on earth. So I want to get back on one.
Neal Freyman
All right, that is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your mornings with us and have a wonderful start to the week. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew daily at Morning Bukom. And if you're enjoying the podcast, share it with a friend, family member, or co worker who always gives you a blank stare when you start talking about current events. Help those people out. And for an even more specific sharing rec, here's Toby.
Toby Howell
I want you to share the pod with someone who is sad their college football team didn't make the playoffs. As a recent Hoosiers fan, I don't know your pain, but I'm sure some of those smaller programs out there, like Alabama, are feeling a little sad right now.
Neal Freyman
Okay, let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our ASSOCI Associate producer. Uchenowa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Menino is on audio, hair and makeup is on that no day workweek grind. Devin Emery is our Chief Content Officer, and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
Toby Howell
Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.
Morning Brew Daily: Episode Summary
Title: TikTok Ban One Step Closer to Happening & Taylor Swift's End of An Era
Release Date: December 9, 2024
Hosts: Neal Freyman and Toby Howell
In this episode of Morning Brew Daily, hosts Neal Freyman and Toby Howell dive into some of the most pressing news in business, the economy, and pop culture. From the looming TikTok ban to the monumental conclusion of Taylor Swift's "Eras Tour," the discussion is both wide-ranging and in-depth, offering listeners a comprehensive overview of current events.
Timestamp: [02:45 – 05:54]
The hosts begin by discussing a significant development regarding TikTok. A U.S. appeals court has upheld a law passed by Congress earlier this year, intensifying the likelihood of TikTok being banned in the United States by mid-January. The primary concern revolves around national security, with lawmakers fearing that TikTok might share data from its 170 million U.S. users with the Chinese government.
Notable Quotes:
Key Points:
Legal Standpoint: TikTok plans to appeal the court ruling and potentially take the case to the Supreme Court. The appeals court rejected TikTok's contention that the law violates the First Amendment.
Possible Outcomes:
Impact on Users: If the ban proceeds, TikTok won’t be removed from users' devices immediately, but the lack of updates could render the app buggy over time.
Timestamp: [05:54 – 07:23]
Neal and Toby shift focus to a seismic political shift in the Middle East. Syrian rebels have seized Damascus, leading to the resignation and flight of President Bashar al-Assad to Moscow, where he has been granted asylum. This marks the end of Assad's over 50-year rule, a dynasty characterized by oppression and conflict.
Notable Quotes:
Neal Freyman [06:14]: "It's a seismic turn of events that could shake up the geopolitical order in the Middle East and beyond."
Toby Howell [07:23]: "It is a major shake up in the region for sure."
Key Points:
Geopolitical Ramifications: Assad's ousting is a significant blow to both Russia and Iran, who had financially and militarily supported his regime. Russia's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine left it unable to assist Assad when needed.
Economic Context: Syria's economy has been devastated by sanctions and civil war, with its GDP shrinking by 54% from 2010 to 2021. Oil production has plummeted from 400,000 barrels per day in 2010 to just 25,000 barrels per day by 2015.
Future Uncertainty: While Western leaders express relief, there is apprehension about the resulting power vacuum and the potential for further instability in the region.
Timestamp: [07:23 – 12:31]
The discussion moves to the latest U.S. jobs report, which showed robust job growth with 227,000 jobs added in November, surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate nudged up slightly to 4.2%, and the duration of unemployment has increased, signaling that those without jobs are finding it harder to re-enter the workforce.
Notable Quotes:
Neal Freyman [09:37]: "The job market is perfectly fine. It is expected to slow a little bit next year."
Toby Howell [10:58]: "People who are out of a job are just finding it harder to get back into work, showing some of the apprehension these companies have from for hiring."
Key Points:
Labor Market Health: Despite slight increases in unemployment and the duration of joblessness, the overall labor market remains strong. The S&P 500 reached its 57th high of the year, up 28%.
Federal Reserve Leadership: President Elect Trump has stated he won't seek to remove Jerome Powell from his role as Fed Chair, maintaining Powell's independence. This move is expected to reassure investors about the Fed's continued autonomy in economic policymaking.
Tariffs and Inflation: Trump acknowledged that the 25% tariffs on products from Mexico and China could lead to higher prices, signaling potential inflationary pressures. This admission aligns with the broader economic consensus that tariffs are likely to increase consumer prices.
Timestamp: [12:31 – 16:26]
One of the episode's highlights is the concluding of Taylor Swift's two-year "Eras Tour," which has been a cultural and economic phenomenon. Spanning 152 shows across five continents, the tour has generated an estimated $2.2 billion in revenue and significantly boosted consumer spending, aiding global economic recovery post-pandemic.
Notable Quotes:
Neal Freyman [14:20]: "Taylor Swift was named Time Person of the Year. She became a billionaire, the first person who became a billionaire just because of her music."
Toby Howell [15:23]: "All of the subplots that it spun off is going to be its big legacy."
Key Points:
Economic Impact: The tour alone contributed $4.3 billion to the U.S. GDP in 2023. Merchandise sales reached half a billion dollars, and her concert film shattered records for concert films.
Cultural Significance: The Eras Tour is being hailed as a cultural milestone, comparable to events like Woodstock. It has created numerous subplots, including controversies with Ticketmaster, a bestselling book, and a record-breaking concert film.
Future Endeavors: Fans and the hosts speculate on Taylor Swift's next moves, including potential re-recordings of previous albums and continued influence in both music and business.
Timestamp: [16:34 – 21:42]
The hosts explore the recent expansion of the College Football Playoff from four to twelve teams. Southern Methodist University (SMU) has secured a spot, signaling significant shifts in college football dynamics.
Notable Quotes:
Neal Freyman [20:12]: "There is a couple hundred billion dollars, Miller told Yahoo Sports. I'm not losing sleep over it."
Toby Howell [20:57]: "It's fascinating how this school that has such a checkered history is now raising a ton of money..."
Key Points:
SMU's Resurgence: SMU, once marred by NCAA sanctions in the 1980s, has rebuilt its football program with substantial financial backing, notably from billionaire David B. Miller. This funding facilitated SMU's move to the Southeastern Conference (SEC) by raising $159 million independently.
Economic Stakes: The expanded playoff structure offers a $150 million prize pool, with finalists receiving $20 million each. This increase aims to distribute revenue more broadly and generate additional excitement and economic activity.
Future Implications: The inclusion of teams like SMU could democratize college football, allowing programs with strong financial backing to compete at higher levels, potentially altering traditional power structures within the sport.
Timestamp: [21:42 – 24:33]
Neal and Toby discuss Japan's innovative approach to addressing its notoriously demanding work culture. The Tokyo government has launched an initiative to implement a four-day workweek, aiming to improve work-life balance and support increased workforce participation among women.
Notable Quotes:
Neal Freyman [22:32]: "Women in Japan engage in five times more unpaid work than men. That's like childcare and elder care."
Toby Howell [24:28]: "There is data to support the fact that they can alleviate this burden on their spouses, on their partners."
Key Points:
Gender Equality: The initiative responds to significant gender disparities in unpaid labor, with women bearing a disproportionate share of household responsibilities. By reducing workdays, the policy seeks to free up time for personal and family life.
Economic Goals: Beyond social benefits, the four-day workweek aims to stimulate productivity and economic participation, particularly among women who have been deterred from the workforce due to excessive demands.
Implementation Challenges: Organizations like Four Day Week Global are assisting companies in transitioning to this model, ensuring that operational needs are met through flexible work arrangements and phased implementations.
Timestamp: [24:33 – 27:12]
As the episode wraps up, the hosts preview key events for the upcoming week:
Inflation Report: Expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) to release on Wednesday, anticipated at a 2.7% increase over the past year. The outcome will influence the Federal Reserve's policies on rate cuts.
Apple's iOS 18.2 Update: Scheduled for release, featuring enhanced AI capabilities, including Siri integration with ChatGPT, Gen Mojis creation, and AI-driven photo analysis.
Disney's First Asia-Based Cruise Ship: Marvel-themed cruises departing from Singapore are set to launch a year from the episode's release, marking Disney's expansion into the Asian cruise market.
Notable Quotes:
Neal Freyman [25:54]: "This is the first time where I'm like, huh, all right, this is actually going to impact my life a lot."
Toby Howell [26:56]: "I want to get back on one."
Neal Freyman and Toby Howell deliver a rich and engaging summary of current events, blending business insights with cultural phenomena. From the potential ban of a globally popular app to the end of a record-breaking music tour, the episode offers listeners a comprehensive understanding of the forces shaping today's world.
Notable Takeaways:
Economic Intersections: The interplay between political decisions (like tariffs and app bans) and economic outcomes is a recurring theme, highlighting the delicate balance policymakers must maintain.
Cultural Impact on Economics: Events in the entertainment industry, such as Taylor Swift's tour, demonstrate the profound economic ripple effects cultural phenomena can generate.
Global Shifts: Political changes in countries like Syria and policy experiments in Japan underline the interconnectedness of global economies and societies.
Listeners are encouraged to stay informed and engaged as these stories continue to evolve, shaping the economic and cultural landscape in significant ways.
End of Summary