
Reciprocal tariffs shock the world & Robinhood warms up to Crypto
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Neal Freyman
Good morning, Brew Daily Show I'm Neal Freyman.
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
Neal Freyman
Today, Trump goes full Hammurabi's code, pledging an eye for an eye with reciprocal tariffs on the countries of the world.
Toby Howell
Then RFK Jr was confirmed as the nation's top health official. While everyone from cereal makers to drug makers are bracing for change, it's Friday, February 14th. Happy Valentine's Day and let's ride.
Neal Freyman
Love is in the air this morning. Valentine's Day. And whether you're headed on a third day or going strong 20 years with your partner, here's a little tip that could add a lot of intimacy to your relationship. Kiss for six seconds each day Kissing for six seconds, a method pioneered by clinical psychologists John and Julie Gottman, is the threshold at which your body will release oxytocin, the hormone that calms the fear center of the brain, builds trust in a relationship and is the same one believed to be responsible for a baby bonding with its mother. They developed this intentional intimate intimacy concept after studying more than 3,000 couples over 30 years. Don't want to smooch each day? Maybe your lips are a little cracked. Another scientist found that a 20 second hug is pretty much the equivalent.
Toby Howell
Okay, lots of thoughts here, Neal. First, are there compounding returns? If six seconds of kiss and 20 seconds of hugs release X amount of oxytocin that would a 60 second kiss at a 200 second hug release 10 times that amount. If I kiss someone for six hours, am I going to be the happiest person on earth? That was my first question.
Neal Freyman
Be a little hungry.
Toby Howell
You would probably get a little hungry by the end. But also, what other activities derive a similar amount of chemical satisfaction? I was thinking a maybe a 45 second firm handshake might get it done. Or, you know, two hours worth of high fives. Just little bursts of oxytocin here and there. But thank you for sharing these intimacy plans on this day dedicated to love. I think I might try it out later this evening with my girlfriend. Now a word from our sponsor, Wise Business. Sometimes running an international business just feels like being stuck in a giant maze.
Neal Freyman
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Toby Howell
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Toby Howell
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Neal Freyman
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Toby Howell
Remember all of those other tariffs the Trump administration has talked about? Small potatoes. Yesterday, the President unveiled what he deemed the big one, a set of reciprocal duties meant to even out trade deficits America has with other countries. Federal agencies are taking it slow, initially conducting studies on how to update tariffs before implementing them in April. But nearly every country that conducts international trade will likely be affected, especially the likes of India, Japan and the eu. It's time to be reciprocal. You'll be hearing that word a lot, Trump said earlier this week. If they charge us, we charge them. This reciprocal approach extends the US Trade wars to to far more countries outside of just China. But we'll have to wait and see if the strategy is to try and extract concessions as Trump has been known to do, or a legitimate attempt to raise import barriers and non tax revenue in the process. Either way, implementing a new tariff code is a massive undertaking that will require reevaluating hundreds of countries current policies in less than two months. Neal, the big one is here and.
Neal Freyman
The big spreadsheet is coming. I mean, if you think you're good with xl, the Trump admin administration probably wants to hire you because this is about to be the most gnarly spreadsheet ever. Imagine going to a tailor and getting a custom suit for every single country. That's exactly what is about to happen. And it's not just tariffs because say Toby, I'm trading with you and you have 10% tariffs and I have 2% tariffs. So I say, okay, reciprocal, I will bump my tariffs up to 10%. No, there was a huge Clayton Kershaw level curveball here, which is that it applies to more, you know, trade barriers than just tariffs. They want to go after subsidies, regulations, value added taxes, exchange rates and other factors all that amount to trade barriers on the United States. And that will go into their calculation that what is deemed reciprocal. So yeah, this is not going to happen within weeks or months. That. So they're hidden. They're hitting the books and figuring out what reciprocal relationship actually looks like.
Toby Howell
Let's take a step back and think about what the current system is and why Trump wants to remake it. Remember, we are currently in a global trade environment. Following World War II, a lot of the most powerful economies and countries in the world signed this thing called the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trades, gatt that ushered in this era of, you know, scratching each other's back. The agreement was eventually turned into and absorbed by the world trade trade organizations. So for a long time, this word tariff has been kind of this ugly word because you wanted to supercharge global trade. You wanted to open up a lot of these pathways. But now the Trump administration thinks that higher tariffs is this pathway towards bringing manufacturing back to the United States and also potentially boosting revenue that you're going to lose if he implements these tax cuts. So there's been a lot of criticism of these plans, obviously, but this is kind of what Trump has been pushing for. He wants to, you know, even the playing field on the global level, which really does upend what the system we've been operating under for, you know, since Post World War II.
Neal Freyman
Yeah. And economists would push back on Trump's reciprocal pushes and say, look, the reason that tariff rates differ is because different, different countries are really good at making different things. And we trade each other, trade with each other, so that, you know, one plus one equals three. And a good example of this is coffee. Brazil is great at making coffee beans. They are the largest exporter in the world. The United States, not so good at making coffee beans. Our climate is just not acclimated to that. So Brazil has a tariff on green coffee beans of 9% because they have a big domestic industry there. They want to protect it. So they are putting tariffs on coffee beans coming into their country. The United States, we don't make any coffee beans, so we have zero percent tariffs, and that is to have cheaper coffee. Because if we put tariffs on coffee, we import all of them, essentially. So it'll just raise prices for consumers. And then on the converse of that, let's look at an industry like pickup trucks. The United States is really good at making pickup trucks, if you haven't noticed. Just go to your local mall and look at all the cars in the parking lot. Japan makes good cars, but they aren't good at making pickup trucks. So Japan has a 0.0% tariff on pickup trucks coming from the United States because they want their consumers to have as cheap pickup trucks as possible. The US has a tariff of 25% on pickup trucks from Japan because we have a local big industry here that we want to protect. So that's sort of how it's shaken out over the past few decades. This is the reason why we have differing trade and tariff rates. And now it looks like that is going to be shaken up.
Toby Howell
And one of the other final critiques here is that if you insist that we are going to match your tariff rate, we're going to be reciprocal with ever. Whatever you're charging us, we charge you, then you basically are handing over your entire trade strategy to other nations because they say, oh, you're going to match us. We're going to jack imports up to the tariff rate up to 20%. Now you have to jack it up to 20%. So you're like almost taking your agency away when dictating how you want to deal with other countries. So, yeah, there is just widely varying tariff rates depending on which country you're even talking about. I mean, India has tariffs of 60% on automobiles and flowers, 50% on apples, coin apples, corn and motorcycles. These are domestic industries that they want to protect. So you, let's go back to this spreadsheet. It is going to be quite this undertaking because there's just so many different industries, so many different countries that you have to sort through and, you know, come up with a cohesive plan.
Neal Freyman
And it could also be a negotiating tactic. The EU has already said that they would lower tariffs on US Exports in order to head off this trade war. They have 10% tariffs on US cars right now. They said they would lower that to 2.5% to get ahead of this. And that may be what Trump is ultimately after anyway. The United States has a new top health official. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. A longtime environmental lawyer and former presidential candidate, was confirmed by the Senate yesterday to become the Secretary of Health and Human Services. His anti establishment agenda to make America healthy again could shake up the $4 trillion health care industry and the food sector areas that are now under his expansive purview. All Democrats voted no on Kennedy, while all Republicans voted yes, except for One, Senator Mitch McConnell. McConnell, who survived polio when he was a child, said he couldn't endorse Kennedy over his previous criticisms of vaccines. In my lifetime, McConnell said, I've watched vaccines save millions of lives from devastating diseases across America and around the world. I will not condone the relitigation of proven cures. And neither will millions of Americans who credit their Survival and quality of life to scientific miracles. So now that RFK is in charge, despite McConnell's no vote of the nation's vast health and food apparatus, including the FDA and the cdc, what is he going to do? We don't know quite yet, but the business world is bracing for impact. In the past, he's railed against Big Pharma for over overmedicating Americans, Big Food for creating an obesity crisis, and Big Ag for putting pesticides and seed oils in diets.
Toby Howell
Yeah, I think there are a lot of phones ringing off the hook in Washington right now who are trying to figure out what to do under this new kind of purview that RFK Jr has. Let's start with vaccine makers because, you know, that's been a very hot button topic under Kennedy's ideas. There have been, you know, pretty controversial. He remember he called the COVID 19 shot that Pfizer produced one of the deadliest vaccines ever made. He's walked back some of those comments since. But a lot of these companies that still derive a lot of revenue from vaccines are nervous right now. I mean, Merck has an HBV shot that's the company's second best selling product. Moderna's entire business is wrapped up in forming various vaccines. And it's not just manufacturers that are potentially at risk here to CVS said in a recent annual report that regulatory changes or consumer sentiment shift for immunizations may hurt demand at some of its shores. So if you are a health care company that does rely on vaccines as one of your mainstreams of revenue, then you are definitely a little nervous that RFK Jr. Is now in charge and.
Neal Freyman
The cost of public health. I mean, just as we're talking right now, there is a measles outbreak in West Texas. 24 people have been infected, some have been hospitalized, and all of them were not, were not vaccinated with mmr, the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine. And then another interesting angle here for the pharmaceutical company, some a agenda item of RFK that has won support across the political spectrum, which we should add, many of his ideas have gained bipartisan partisan support. You know, going after Big Food, saying that they put profits over the health of Americans. Bernie Sanders was like, yeah, dude, I 100% agree with you. One of them, interestingly for the pharmaceutical industry is that he wants to ban TV advertising for pharmaceutical companies. Elon Musk is on board with this. And this would shake up TV and pharma, the pharma industry. You know, anyone who's watched TV recently knows that they spend a ton of money on advertising. They are on track to spend over $5 billion alone on national televising national television as advertisements this year. Of five popular nightly news shows on major networks last week, advertisements from the maker of prescription and over the counter drugs accounted for half of ad spending. So this is going to run up against a lot of opposition from industry, but it's just another, you know, big idea that RFK has.
Toby Howell
And then finally, one other idea that we should speak about is that RFK is not a fan of weight loss drugs. You know, Wegovy, Ozempic, the GLP1 class of drugs that has absolutely taken the world by storm. He said when I'm working the next administration, I will address our sick food system. Instead, he wants to address, you know, the root cause rather than something papering over it. And that could set up a fight with one of Trump's other top advisers, Elon Musk. Elon Musk has been extremely supportive of these weight loss drugs. He went as far as to say nothing would do more to improve the health, lifespan and quality of life for Americans than making GLP1 drugs super low cost to the public. So that is a potential point of friction that we could see develop between two of Trump's top lieutenants. Robinhood, the trading platform best known for the meme stock boom, is growing up. It reported earnings earlier this week and it was all highlights. The company posted its first ever annual profit and revenue more than doubled. It's been quite the turnaround. After it went public, Robinhood withered away, losing 80% of its IPO market cap. But it staged a huge comeback since with its shares more than quadrupling over the past year. How did it right the ship? Firstly, by attracting more serious investors away from competitors like Fidelity and Charles Schwab. CEO Vlad Tenev said his company finished the fourth quarter with $1.3 billion in net transfers, more than any other brokerage. It also wrote a crypto trading tsunami. Its crypto based revenue jumped in insane 700% year over year to reach $358 million. Neil shares finished up another 14% yesterday. Robinhood and its merry band of crypto degens is cooking.
Neal Freyman
Robinhood has certainly benefited from the hype around crypto. When people are trading crypto, when people are trading stocks, when there's volatility, Robinhood and its peers will do well. And it hasn't just been at Robinhood. Coinbase reported A1, which is the largest crypto trading platform, reported a 130% rise in revenue just yesterday, Fidelity, Schwab are all raking it in. So this. When bitcoin goes over $100,000, these companies are going to benefit. But you could say that Robinhood has made certain tactful changes that puts it in a really good position to benefit now to the point where its market cap is over $50 billion. It's been releasing a number of financial products, crypto and other, to, you know, make its platform more sticky, get more people coming over from other platforms, get more money on on. Robinhood itself rolled out a subscription offering called Gold, which it said has 2.6 million people right now signed up paying every single month for advanced subscription features. It also rolled out a credit card that has a very long wait list. So it's been pedal to the metal for Robinhood, and they're not even close to done right.
Toby Howell
There's kind of two angles you can look at here. One, it rode this animal spirits wave really well. Customers traded $14 billion in crypto in the third quarter on its platform. Sounds like a lot. You go to the fourth quarter, that number jumps to $71 billion. So just a massive uptick in crypto trading. But you're right, a lot of the reason why analysts are a little bit more bullish on it is that Robinhood is maturing as a company. It has these very sober offerings, like it offers retirement accounts now. It has that credit card that it launched and also those funded accounts that are subscribing to its Gold service. That is a very stable form of revenue. That does it, you know, wildly fluctuate alongside the crypto market. So that's why analysts are like, all of a sudden, Robinhood is kind of looking like a very well positioned company. It does have a long way to go to reach the big boys that have trillions of dollars in assets on their platform. But right now, Robinhood is certainly, you know, aging gracefully into, into its teenage years.
Neal Freyman
And we'll see whether in those teenage years it rolls into events contracts, which is those prediction markets that have become so big recently with Polymarket and Kalshi, Robinhood did roll them out ahead of the presidential election. They tried to do it for the super bowl, but the regulator stepped in and said, no, please take that off. So they did. But, you know, a name like Robinhood getting into events contracts, which is those things where you can just bet on an event to happen outside of sports, like sports gambling, but but for just like things happening. And the world will see if they are able to take these prediction markets.
Toby Howell
Mainstream it sounds like the event contracts are pricing in a 100% chance of us going to break right now. Do you ever feel like you can feel yourself getting older?
Neal Freyman
Literally all the time. Just ask my lower back.
Toby Howell
Yeah, my knee is saying the exact same thing.
Neal Freyman
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Toby Howell
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Neal Freyman
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Toby Howell
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Neal Freyman
With over 7,000 positive reviews and counting from actual Delta drinkers, you can get 20% off your first order at drink delta.com/mbd that's drinkdelta.com/mbd welcome to Stock of the Week Dog of the Week, the segment where Toby and I pick one stock that won Best in Show and another that needs to work harder for its treat. I won the pre show harmonizing contest. Toby, you were just a little flat on that high G. So I get to go first. And my stock of the week is Doordash. And not just because it came up clutch during my super bowl party. The stock is up 5% this week after the delivery giant reported its first full year of profitability ever. Revenue grew 25% during DoorDash's fourth quarter while it posted net income of $141 million compared to a loss of 150 million a year ago There was a time that DoorDash being profitable seemed as remote as Toby. Shooting under par, it racked up hundreds of millions of losses, spending gobs on marketing, discounts, operations. And there were plenty of haters saying the economics of food delivery, a savagely competitive sector, would never work out. But Jordache has managed to build a healthy business and become the dominant player in the US Restaurant delivery space, commanding two thirds of the market and distancing itself from Uber Eats and grubhub. Oh, and the super bowl was pretty good for it, too. DoorDash said its delivery drivers earned more than $50 million during the game this year, up from 43 million last year. From all you chicken wing ordering freaks.
Toby Howell
People like having personal chauffeurs for their burritos. Total orders are now up 735% over the past five years. It's not just that DoorDash executing, which it has been very well for a long time now. It's also that there is just a lot of demand for food delivery in general. Just look at the results from Uber's delivery segment last week. It also beat expectations. DoorDash is a much larger player, though. It controls two thirds of the US Meal delivery market. That is triple the share that Uber Eats has. So I am curious to see how it does going forward because these two companies have been kind of avoiding each other for most of their early lifetime. DoorDash initially went very hard, focused on suburbs. Uber Eats, meanwhile, went very hard and focused on urban areas. So now the two are mixing a little bit more. They're stepping into each other's territory. So I do think we might see another, you know, sort of food delivery war start to cook up. But DoorDash is cooking, and I think.
Neal Freyman
With its first profitable year, it is a signal of the maturation of the gig economy, which I mentioned. Few thought that the economics would ultimately work out for these type of companies. But Lyft also reported its first profitable year ever in 2024. Airbnb and Uber also reported their first profitable years in 2023. Next up is Instacart, which is reporting later in this month and it could report its first profitable year ever. So these companies that rely on independent contractors that have been embroiled in labor negotiations and criticized for not paying drivers enough, but also just not being profitable enterprises, are really turning a corner here. You know, when were these companies started? 15 years after they started in the.
Toby Howell
ZURP area with those 00% interest rates definitely help start them. So a lot of people are saying they have these enduring moats because, well, we're not going to see an era like that to raise capital again.
Neal Freyman
So, yeah, you miss the discounts.
Toby Howell
The discounts are incredible. The millennial subsidized lifestyle. My dog of the week is Reddit. On the surface, Reddit's earnings this week were pretty solid. 101 million daily active users in Q4, up 39% year over year, and a solid beat on revenue expectations should have made investors happy, but instead shares fell more than 15% on Wednesday. The culprit, according to CEO Steve Huffman, Google tweaked its algorithm, which led to fewer Reddit posts hitting that SEO sweet spot to get a boost in search results. That means when you search for something like Severance Dead Seal explained, Reddit posts might come up a little lower in Google's pecking order. Hoffman tried to assuage investors fear during the earnings call, explaining that Google's algorithm changes take place two times a year and that this one is not the first and not the last. Still an annoying development for a company whose shares had been up 23% so far in 2025.
Neal Freyman
The Reddit Google relationship is pretty interesting. You could call them frenemies, you call it symbiotic. But Reddit relies on Google for so much of its traffic. 55% of all of its users are what they call logged out users, which are essentially people who come in from a Google search and they aren't logged in to the platform. Those are most of the people that, you know, travel that, that scroll through Reddit every single day. At the same time, Google needs Reddit as well. It's paying its $60 million for it to help train its AI large language models. So you have this very interesting relationship between Google and Reddit. At the same time, they are also competing against each other. Google Reddit is also has released this AI search tool that, you know, ostensibly would be what Google is for. So it looks like Google's little algorithm Reddit relies so much on Google that Google's tiny algorithm tweaks, which it does a couple of times each year, you know, threw a hammer in its earnings and send its stock tumbling.
Toby Howell
Yeah. Steve Huffman, the CEO of Reddit, said that this one was particularly interesting because they saw this immediate swing downwards, but then right after they saw recovery towards the end of the quarter. So it is sometimes you live and die by these algorithmic changes, but they are pretty adept at navigating them at this point. And it is definitely a symbiotic relationship because most people just treat Google as almost like a wrapper to get to Reddit. Search results are like this is the only place I'm finding real verifiable results, especially in the age of AI. So very interesting to see the two kind of dance around each other. They both need each other, but also one changes affects the other pretty more intensely than you'd expect. Now let's sprint to the finish with some more headlines you may have missed. I hope you are productive from January 19th until now because TikTok is back and available to download in both the Apple and Google app stores as of yesterday. Remember, after a law was passed by Congress and upheld by the Supreme Court, the tech giants took the app down back in January so as not to run afoul of the legislation and rack up huge fines in the process. But yesterday, just about a month after it was banned, US Attorney General Pam Bondi sent a letter to Apple and Google Pinky promising that they won't be punished for hosting the app. Taking the Trump administration at their word, the two decided to bring the app back. And now we can all swipe away again as Trump tries to work out a deal by early April to address the national security concerns around the app's Chinese ownership.
Neal Freyman
I wonder what this letter said because previously the DOJ said they wouldn't prosecute Tik Tok, Apple or Google for, you know, for allowing TikTok on their stores. But they said, yeah, I don't think it's worth it because you have this law passed by Congress which said don't do that or we will find you a bazillion dollars, $5,000 per user. And then you have the Trump administration that says don't listen to them. So I don't know what this letter said, but apparently it was convincing. TikTok is back on these app stores, which is huge for its continued relevance and growth in the United states.
Toby Howell
Donald Trump Jr. Wants to see just how fast roided up athletes can run and is putting his money up to find out. Yesterday, the President's son announced a investment in the Enhance Games through his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital. The enhanced games, best described as the Steroid Olympics, are a multi sport event that will allow athletes to compete while using performance enhancing drugs. Trump Jr. Views the enhanced Games not as a sideshow project, but a disruptive force in sports, challenging established norms and offering up what he calls real competition, real freedom and real records being smashed. This is about excellence, innovation and American dominance on the world stage, something the MAGA movement is all about.
Neal Freyman
I just have to say there's only one athlete that has signed up so far for the Enhanced Games and that's an Australian, former Olympic team member James Magnussen. There's no date, there's no location. I. They seem to have enough capital. This is tens of millions of dollars. And another investor is Peter Thiel, which shows you sort of the political person who is a longtime Trump supporter and shows you the political persuasion of the Enhanced Games. I'm just curious whether this thing is going to happen at all.
Toby Howell
I think the logic too is that if you can experiment and try to make these athletes superhuman, potentially you could pass down some of those findings to overall public health. Bali gservicenon is another big investor. He said that technology will make athletes superhuman. That will make everyone superhuman. That's why I was the first investor in Enhanced Game to improve human health for all of us. So that's potentially another thread that you can trace back through these investments that they do want to pass on these findings to, you know, the broader public.
Neal Freyman
Health sector and the International Olympic Committee, the Biden administration, some other organizations have come out and said this is not a good idea.
Toby Howell
Not a good idea.
Neal Freyman
Okay. If you get frustrated with your Gen Z employees, you can commiserate with Giancarlo Romano. The alleged Mafia don of the Sicilian crime syndicate Casa Nostradamus was heard on wiretaps complaining about the sorry state of new recruits. He grumbled that these days the caliber of the youngins was, quote, miserable. And reminisced about Vito Corleone and the power he wielded in the Godfather, which was based on the Casa Nostra. Romano was heard saying, if you watch the Godfather, the connections he had, he was very influential because of the power that he built at a political level. But us? What can we do, Toby? These kids and their obsession with work life balance.
Toby Howell
This organization is not in a great spot right now. But I think I know how to fix the Mafia. Step one, call everyone back to in person work. None of this remote work stuff. Step two, layoffs of the bottom 5% of employees. Yeah, that's right. Institute performance based layoffs. Step three, Mafia I improve efficiency with internal AI tools. Step four, movie night. Everyone watches Godfather every single Friday. Step five, profit. I guess. I think that's how you reform the Mafia from top to bottom.
Neal Freyman
Okay, let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonder quick programming note. Since Monday is President's Day, we will be off the daily news grind. But we taped a special holiday episode and It's a fun one, so be sure to tune in that is Monday Morning. For any questions, comments or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at Morning Broadcom. And if you're enjoying the show, share it with a friend, family member or coworker. Toby who should everyone listening share it with Today.
Toby Howell
Forgot to get a Valentine's Day card. I got you kings and queens. Simply send your boo this episode and write roses are red, violets are blue. This episode of Morning Brew Daily is best listened to with you.
Neal Freyman
Let's roll the credits. Emily Miligan is our Executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our Associate producer. Lonnie Fiskus is our Technical director. Garrett Peck is on Audio, Hair and makeup is down at the Eagles Parade today. Keep it classy. Devin Emery is our Chief Content Office Officer and our Shows of Production of Morning Brew.
Toby Howell
Great show today Neil. I wish you all well.
Morning Brew Daily Podcast Summary
Episode: Trump Doubles Down on Tariffs & Robinhood Cashes In On Crypto
Release Date: February 14, 2025
Hosts: Neal Freyman and Toby Howell
In this episode of Morning Brew Daily, hosts Neal Freyman and Toby Howell delve into significant developments in U.S. trade policies, healthcare leadership, and the booming cryptocurrency market. Released on Valentine's Day, the episode kicks off with a brief romantic interlude before transitioning into robust discussions on economic and technological shifts impacting businesses and consumers alike.
Timestamp: 00:35 - 05:23
Neal Freyman opens the discussion by highlighting President Trump's aggressive stance on international trade: "Trump goes full Hammurabi's code, pledging an eye for an eye with reciprocal tariffs on the countries of the world." This policy signals a substantial shift from previous trade agreements, aiming to balance trade deficits through reciprocal duties.
Key Points:
Reciprocal Tariffs: Trump's administration plans to implement reciprocal tariffs, meaning the U.S. will match tariff rates imposed by other countries. This extends the trade war beyond China to include nations like India, Japan, and members of the EU.
Economic Implications: The move is expected to disrupt existing trade relationships and necessitate extensive reevaluation of hundreds of countries' trade policies within a tight two-month window. Neal remarks, "Imagine going to a tailor and getting a custom suit for every single country."
Economic Critique: Economists argue that differing tariffs exist because countries excel in producing specific goods, creating a synergistic global trade environment. Neal uses the example of Brazil’s coffee tariffs versus the U.S.’s tariffs on Japanese pickup trucks to illustrate the complexity and potential drawbacks of Trump's reciprocal approach.
Negotiation Tactics: There is speculation that the tariff strategy may serve as a negotiation tactic to extract concessions from trade partners. The EU’s preemptive reduction of tariffs on U.S. exports from 10% to 2.5% is seen as a move to mitigate the impending trade conflict.
Timestamp: 05:23 - 11:46
Neal Freyman announces the Senate’s confirmation of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the Secretary of Health and Human Services, a move that has stirred significant anticipation and concern across various industries.
Key Points:
Controversial Appointment: Kennedy, known for his anti-establishment views, faces a divided Senate—with all Democrats opposing and nearly all Republicans supporting, except for Senator Mitch McConnell, who stated, “I will not condone the relitigation of proven cures.”
Potential Impact on Industries:
Pharmaceuticals: Kennedy's history of criticizing vaccine efficacy and Big Pharma raises concerns among vaccine manufacturers like Merck and Moderna, potentially leading to regulatory changes or diminished demand.
Big Food and Agriculture: His focus on combating overmedication and unhealthy food practices suggests significant policy shifts that could affect food producers and agribusinesses.
Health Care Sector: With Kennedy advocating for systemic changes, the $4 trillion healthcare industry anticipates major reforms that could redefine operational standards and regulatory frameworks.
Industry Reactions: Companies reliant on vaccines and other health products are bracing for possible disruptions, with Neal noting, “If you are a health care company that does rely on vaccines as one of your mainstreams of revenue, then you are definitely a little nervous.”
Timestamp: 11:46 - 17:12
Robinhood, the popular trading platform, has reported its first annual profit and a significant surge in cryptocurrency trading revenues. Neal Freyman and Toby Howell explore the factors contributing to Robinhood’s remarkable turnaround.
Key Points:
Profitable Turnaround: Robinhood’s revenue more than doubled, with crypto-based revenue jumping an impressive 700% year-over-year to $358 million. The company’s shares have quadrupled over the past year, surpassing initial post-IPO setbacks.
Strategic Shifts:
Attracting Serious Investors: By drawing in more significant investors away from competitors like Fidelity and Charles Schwab, Robinhood has solidified its market position.
Subscription Models: The introduction of "Robinhood Gold," with 2.6 million subscribers, provides advanced features and stable revenue streams beyond volatile crypto trading.
Innovative Financial Products: Launching a credit card with a long waitlist and exploring prediction markets (event contracts) indicate Robinhood’s commitment to diversifying its offerings.
Market Positioning: Toby Howell remarks, “Robinhood is maturing as a company. It has these very sober offerings… that are a very stable form of revenue.”
Broader Crypto Market Impact: Robinhood is part of a broader trend where crypto trading platforms like Coinbase and traditional brokers are capitalizing on the increasing interest in cryptocurrencies, positioning themselves for future growth as crypto valuations rise.
Timestamp: 19:05 - 22:33
Neal Freyman highlights DoorDash as the episode's "Stock of the Week," celebrating its first full year of profitability and substantial revenue growth.
Key Points:
Profit Milestone: DoorDash achieved net income of $141 million in the fourth quarter, a stark contrast to the $150 million loss the previous year.
Market Dominance: Holding two-thirds of the U.S. restaurant delivery market, DoorDash has outpaced competitors like Uber Eats and Grubhub, benefiting from sustained demand for food delivery services.
Growth Drivers:
Increased Orders: Total orders have surged by 735% over the past five years, reflecting growing consumer reliance on delivery services.
Strategic Focus: Initially targeting suburban areas while competitors concentrated on urban markets has allowed DoorDash to capture a broader customer base.
Industry Trend: The profitability of gig economy companies is on the rise, with peers like Lyft, Airbnb, and Uber also reporting their first profitable years, signaling maturation in the sector.
Neal concludes, “These companies that rely on independent contractors… are really turning a corner here.”
Timestamp: 22:33 - 24:47
Reddit comes under the spotlight as the "Dog of the Week," despite reporting solid user growth and revenue.
Key Points:
User Growth: Reddit boasts 101 million daily active users in Q4, a 39% year-over-year increase, and exceeded revenue expectations.
Stock Reaction: Contrary to expectations, Reddit’s shares fell over 15% due to Google's algorithm changes, which reduced the visibility of Reddit posts in search results.
Symbiotic Relationship with Google: Approximately 55% of Reddit’s traffic comes from users accessing the platform via Google searches. Neal explains, “Google needs Reddit as well. It's paying its $60 million to help train its AI large language models.”
Competitive Tensions: While Reddit benefits from Google’s search traffic, it also competes with Google through its own AI search tools, creating a "frenemy" dynamic.
CEO’s Response: Steve Huffman acknowledged the impact of Google's algorithm tweaks, reassuring investors that such changes are routine and part of an ongoing relationship.
Toby Howell notes, “It is sometimes you live and die by these algorithmic changes, but they are pretty adept at navigating them at this point.”
Timestamp: 24:47 - 26:17
Morning Brew Daily reports the return of TikTok to the Apple and Google app stores after a legal battle. This reinstatement follows a letter from U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi assuring tech giants that hosting TikTok would not result in penalties, despite ongoing national security concerns over its Chinese ownership. The app's availability is set to help maintain its relevance and growth in the U.S. market as Trump aims to negotiate a resolution by early April.
Timestamp: 26:17 - 28:35
Donald Trump Jr. has invested in the Enhanced Games—a multi-sport event allowing athletes to use performance-enhancing drugs. Through his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, Trump Jr. envisions these games as a disruptive force in sports, promoting "real competition, real freedom, and real records being smashed." The initiative has attracted investors like Peter Thiel, highlighting its alignment with Trump’s MAGA movement. However, skepticism remains due to the lack of confirmed dates and participants, with only one athlete, Australian James Magnussen, currently signed up.
Timestamp: 28:35 - 29:52
In a humorous segment, Neal and Toby joke about the alleged Mafia don Giancarlo Romano’s frustrations with younger recruits. They propose satirical solutions for modernizing the Mafia, including mandatory in-person work, performance-based layoffs, AI efficiency tools, and weekly Godfather movie nights, blending comedic relief with topical discussions.
Neal and Toby wrap up the episode by teasing a special holiday broadcast for President’s Day and encouraging listeners to share the podcast. Neal humorously suggests sending the episode as a Valentine’s Day card, emphasizing the show's blend of informative content and engaging banter.
Notable Quotes:
This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and analyses presented by Neal Freyman and Toby Howell in the February 14, 2025 episode of Morning Brew Daily. From transformative trade policies and significant leadership changes to the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency and gig economy companies, listeners are provided with a thorough overview of the pressing issues shaping today’s business and economic environment.