Morning Brew Daily – Episode Summary
Episode Title: Trump Threatens EU Tariffs Over Greenland & ChatGPT Adds Ads
Date: January 20, 2026
Hosts: Neal Freyman (A) & Toby Howell (B)
Recorded at: World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland
Episode Overview
This episode dives into a whirlwind of global business news, led by President Trump’s dramatic trade threats involving Greenland and the cascading reaction from both EU governments and financial markets. The hosts also break down OpenAI’s surprising move to start placing ads within ChatGPT, and analyze the economic and cultural implications. Additional segments spotlight Sphere Entertainment's ambitious expansion and the latest pop culture and economic trends, all informed by on-the-ground perspective from Davos.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Davos Impressions: Business and Chaos in the Swiss Alps
[00:22 – 01:51]
- Both hosts share first impressions of Davos. Neal marvels at the scenery and local cuisine, while Toby describes the distributed, chaotic energy in town, with brands and national delegations occupying repurposed retail locations for the week.
- Quote: “It’s all got this sort of chaos energy running beneath the surface that you get when you cram so many businesses and nations together into a tiny Swiss mountain town.” — Toby [00:54]
2. Trump’s Tariff Threats Over Greenland: Potential Trade War with Europe
[02:41 – 07:45]
What Happened?
- President Trump threatens a 10% tariff (rising to 25% in June) on eight European countries unless a “deal” is made for the purchase of Greenland from Denmark.
- The targeted countries: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, UK, Netherlands, Finland.
- Tensions rise as the EU prepares possible retaliatory tariffs on over $100 billion of US goods and considers aggressive economic countermeasures.
- Trump’s motivation reportedly includes not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, awarded by a Norwegian committee.
Economic Fallout
- Markets, closed for the MLK holiday, dropped sharply as investors reacted.
- Safe havens like gold and silver hit new records.
- Major European automakers (Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari, Porsche) and luxury firms (LVMH, Kering) see sharp stock declines.
- Pharma firms with US exposure (Novo Nordisk and Switzerland’s Roche) also hit.
EU Leverage & Options
- Immediate suspension of a favorable US-EU trade deal from July 2025 is likely.
- The deal had reduced tariffs on American goods but gave the US more favorable terms, so scrapping it is an easy first response.
- “Nuclear option”: Europe could threaten to sell off large holdings of US Treasuries (Europe holds 40% of foreign-owned US bonds), potentially destabilizing US markets—but this is considered a last resort.
- Quote: “That is, as you mentioned, probably a nuclear option because it is a weaponization of capital.” — Toby [06:09]
Who Pays for Tariffs?
- New research (Kiel Institute): US importers & consumers absorb 96% of tariff costs, not the foreign exporters.
- Quote: “Foreign exporters absorbed about 4% of the burden of last year's tariff increases compared to American consumers and importers who absorbed 96%.” — Neal [06:55]
- A critical, high-stakes meeting between the US and European leaders is anticipated at Davos in the coming days.
3. OpenAI’s ChatGPT Adds Ads: Monetization Meets User Experience
[07:45 – 11:45]
Ad Insertion Details
- ChatGPT will begin showing ads—clearly labeled and in tinted boxes—above or below answers for free or low-tier users.
- Contextual ad matching: ads tailored to the current conversation topic, allowing follow-up questions.
- Promise: No user data is sold and ads don’t influence AI responses.
Changing Tune on Ads
- Hosts revisit Sam Altman’s past aversion to ads.
- Quote: “I kind of hate ads just as an aesthetic choice.” — Toby, quoting Altman [07:45]
- Quote: “Sam Altman, he called people previously... he called ads a last resort. Well, looks like we're at the last resort.” — Neal [09:09]
- Financial motivation is at the core: OpenAI must boost annual revenue tenfold (to $200 billion by 2030) to reach profitability.
- Quote: “OpenAI needs to get to $200 billion in annual revenue in order to turn a profit in 2030. Right now it's making 20, so it needs to increase its revenue tenfold...” — Neal [09:09]
Wider Trend: The Insertification of Everything
- Comparison to other platforms (Netflix, Uber, Walmart) now embracing ads.
- Notable Quote: “On a long enough timeline, every company sells ads.” — Toby [10:38]
- Hosts warn of insertification: platforms worsening user experience in pursuit of monetization.
- Quote: “This could be that slippery slope towards people losing trust in their chat bots.” — Toby [11:17]
4. Sphere Entertainment’s ‘Mini Sphere’ Plans for D.C.
[11:45 – 15:41]
- Sphere to build a smaller (6,000-seat, $1B) version of its Vegas domed venue at National Harbor, Maryland, outside D.C.
- Supported by $200M in government and private funding, aiming to boost local tourism.
- Debate: Can “residency” entertainment work outside tourist hubs like Vegas?
- Quote: “My big question is, can this work? Not in Vegas.” — Toby [13:11]
- The project is a major local economic development push after setbacks (lost FBI HQ, sports franchises).
Sphere’s Profitability
- Las Vegas Sphere now profitable ($150M net income in a recent quarter); Wizard of Oz attraction generating $2M/day.
- 7% of Vegas tourists visit the Sphere; company aims for 10%+.
5. Davos Interview: Ravi Mattra of Lightspeed
[16:13 – 17:05]
- Ravi Mattra, co-founder and partner at Lightspeed, discusses creating a unique, inviting lounge for founders at Davos, filled with symbols representing Lightspeed-backed companies' transformational ideas.
- Quote: “We’ve tried to create a space where we had something representative of what was transformational about their idea along with the name of the company.” — Ravi Mattra [16:19]
- Neal plugs special founder interviews on their YouTube channel.
6. Toby’s Trends: The Rise of ‘Netflix Speak’
[18:10 – 21:43]
- Matt Damon, on Joe Rogan’s podcast, reveals Netflix encourages repeated verbal plot exposition to help viewers keep up amid distractions at home.
- Quote: “According to Damon, filmmakers now get explicit guidance that it wouldn’t be terrible if you reiterated the plot three or four times in the dialog.” — Toby [18:10]
- Discussion of “second screen viewing” and its impact on streaming content’s scripting.
- Neal: This isn’t entirely new (see old action movies), but massive Netflix data now codifies the practice.
- Quote: “Netflix has is armed with more data than we know of. So they know exactly how people are consuming their content, when they're turning it on, when they're turning it off. So, you know, maybe they know something that we don't. Not maybe—they definitely know something that we don't.” — Neal [19:30]
- Damon’s artistic “double life”: starring in both “slop” (Netflix) and highbrow (upcoming Nolan film Odyssey).
7. Quick Headlines & Final Notes
[21:43 – end]
China’s Population Decline
- China faces a fourth year of population shrinkage; efforts to stimulate birth rates (cash, housing, “child-bearing culture,” condom taxes) failing.
- Quote: “There were fewer births in China in 2025 than in 1776.” — Economist, as cited by Toby [22:22]
- If trends persist, China’s population could halve over generations.
Hedge Fund Records
- Chris Hohn’s TCI pulls in $18.9B profit in 2025—the best year ever for a hedge fund. Top performer: General Electric stock.
- Quote: “No other hedge fund has surpassed the $18.9 billion it brought in in 2025, eclipsing the previous record set by Ken Griffin, citadel, back in 2022.” — Toby [22:22]
- “It was a great year for hedge funds… pretty straightforward.” — Rick Sofer, quoted by Neal [24:09]
Sports Cinderella: Indiana University Football
- IU wins National Championship; coach Signetti delivers dramatic turnaround after years as the NCAA’s losingest team.
- Quote: “It’s pretty simple. I win. Google me—just two years later, no one needs to anymore.” — Signetti, retold by Neal [25:27]
- Toby humorously credits himself for picking Indiana on the podcast two years ago.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “It’s all got this sort of chaos energy running beneath the surface that you get when you cram so many businesses and nations together into a tiny Swiss mountain town.” — Toby [00:54]
- “Markets are violently throwing up right now.” — Neal [04:01]
- “If you flicked it on, you’d make $1 billion instantly... Are you going to turn it on? I’m pressing the switch, absolutely.” — Neal [09:09]
- “On a long enough timeline, every company sells ads.” — Toby [10:38]
- “This could be that slippery slope towards people losing trust in their chat bots.” — Toby [11:17]
- “According to Damon, filmmakers now get explicit guidance that it wouldn’t be terrible if you reiterated the plot three or four times in the dialog.” — Toby [18:10]
- “There were fewer births in China in 2025 than in 1776.” — Economist, as cited by Toby [22:22]
- “It’s pretty simple. I win. Google me—just two years later, no one needs to anymore.” — Signetti, retold by Neal [25:27]
Timestamps for Important Segments
- Davos Impressions: 00:22–01:51
- Trump Tariffs & EU Reactions: 02:41–07:45
- ChatGPT Adds Ads: 07:45–11:45
- Sphere in D.C.: 11:45–15:41
- Lightspeed Interview: 16:13–17:05
- Netflix’s Plot Repetition (Toby’s Trends): 18:10–21:43
- China’s Demographics & Hedge Fund Records: 21:43–24:53
- Indiana Football Cinderella Story: 24:53–26:47
Tone & Style
The hosts blend business news and analysis with light, witty banter, often poking fun at themselves, world leaders, and pop culture. The tone remains fast-paced, conversational, and engaging throughout—making complex economic and technological topics accessible.