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- [00:00]
Podcast Producer
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- [00:40]
Neal Freyman
Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.
- [00:43]
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
- [00:44]
Neal Freyman
Today, Palantir CEO turned an earnings call into fight night.
- [00:48]
Toby Howell
Then Coca Cola thinks the best way to spread holiday cheer is through AI generated ads. It's Tuesday, November 4th. Let's ride.
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Neal Freyman
Good morning and happy election Day, which despite being on an off year, features high stakes races across the country. People around the world will be watching New York City's mayoral race where self described Democratic socialist Zoran Mamdani could become the next leader of the global hub of capitalism. There are also big gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. While Californians will vote on a measure that would allow Democrats to redraw the state's House map. If you need me later, I'm going to be locked in on the results coming out of Queens county, which has picked the mayor of New York every election since 1989.
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Toby Howell
First, impeccable use of the word gubernatorial. Always good when you can get that into a show. And then second, if early voting is any indication in New York City, there is going to be record turnout Today, New York City's Board of Elections said 735,000 voters cast ballots during the early voting period, which is more than five times the number of early voters in 2021. In total, turnout is predicted to reach about 2 million voters. If that number proves to be accurate, that would outpace any New York City mayoral election dating back to 1969, according to the newsletter 1440. So I guess get in line early and because there's probably going to be some crowds. And now a word from our sponsor, U.S. bank. Picture this, Neil. You're inviting all of your friends over for a movie night, myself included.
- [02:19]
Neal Freyman
You included? That's presumptuous.
- [02:21]
Toby Howell
Stay with me. You've got everything ready from snacks to surround sound. There's just one problem. Your couch. It's time to get a new one, man.
- [02:28]
Neal Freyman
Fine. Luckily, I don't have to pay out of pocket thanks to the US Bank Split World mastercard Introducing the US Bank.
- [02:34]
Toby Howell
Split World mastercard, a new type of card that lets you pay later on every purchase. With the Split Card, all purchases are automatically divided into three payments and place into a payment plan to be paid back over three months.
- [02:46]
Neal Freyman
If you're looking for additional flexibility, any purchase over $100 can be extended to 6 or 12 months with equal monthly payments for a low monthly fee. Whether you're paying for an unexpected bill or are buying a new sofa like me, pay later on every purchase with the US bank Split Card.
- [03:01]
Toby Howell
Learn more at usbank.com/splitcard that's usbank.com/split card.
- [03:08]
Neal Freyman
Consumer goods giant Kimberly Clark is reaching for the medicine cabinet and popping a couple Tylenol Yesterday, the company announced it agreed to buy Can View, the maker of Tylenol, in a nearly $50 billion deal that's one of the largest this year. When the acquisition closes, the combined company will be with you every step on life's journey. Kimberly Clark and Can view together have $10 billion brands that stock the nursery to the nursing home. They'll supply Huggies diapers before your potty trained, Listerine mouthwash you'll use before prom, Tylenol for your hangovers in college, Kleenex when you watch your first child get married, Band Aids when you realize you aren't as athletic as you used to be and depends when it all comes back. Full circle. Can View investors were also getting sentimental, sending the battered stock up 12% thanks to the lifeline Kimberly Clark just threw their way. Spun out of Johnson and Johnson in 2022, Can View has struggled as an independent consumer health care company despite a stable of iconic brands like Tylenol, Benadryl, Neutrogena, Sudafed and Neosporin. Shares are down nearly 35% since its IPO three years ago, and 2025 has brought even more headaches. In September, President Trump made unfounded claims linking the use of the active ingredient in Tylenol during pregnancy to higher risk of autism, causing a fresh sell off in Canvas stock. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton followed that up by suing Can View for alleged deceptive marketing to pregnant women. So, Toby, Kimberly Clark is making a $49 billion bet that the Tylenol legal clouds will blow over.
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Toby Howell
Yeah, activists have been circulating this company for a long time now, pushing for something to change in this business, and Kimberly Clark said, all right, we'll Step in and be that change agent. But you are right. The big story here is all the legal scrutiny that is surrounding the Tylenol maker. A lot of analysts say that Kimberly Clark might be entering a Bayer Monsanto situation which is basically when you acquire a company with so much legal liabilities that it just offsets any profits you are hoping to gain. So if you can figure out those legal liabilities, if maybe the political undercurrents change and the wind starts blowing away from all the scrutiny on Tylenol that maybe you did just get a household brand name for a pretty solid discount. If those things don't blow over, then you just overpaid for a brand that is going to have more headaches than profits.
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Neal Freyman
Wall street sure seems skeptical that this deal will go through. So can be stock did go up 12% yesterday but it's sitting at just $16 now complete. Clark agreed to pay $21 a share for this company so they're going to buy it at $21 a share. It's right now at $16 after the deal with was announced. That gap indicates that investors don't aren't really sure that this deal will get regulatory approval or they won't back out. But Kimberly Clark CEO got up to the MIC yesterday and said you know we looked at we met with all the medical regulatory and legal experts and ultimately concluded that this deal is a quote generational value creation opportunity for both companies can view. CEO has also come out and said like we stand behind the science of our products. These things have been studied by for decades. So RFK Jr. That the top health official in the United States has already backed off the claims around Tylenol and autism. President Trump hasn't really done that. So maybe RFK move back has was one of the reasons that spurred this deal to be made on Monday.
- [06:24]
Toby Howell
And then just from a business perspective to cpg companies in general are trying to move away from some of these lower margin categories like tissues or diapers that have been increasingly coming under tariff pressure as well. Just facing margin pressure in in general and trying to move into the health in a wellness space where margins are a little bit better. So maybe this pivot towards premium products will just work out for Kimberly Clark. So maybe that's what the conversation that's going on in the boardroom right now saying all right you can only sell so many tissues. There's only so much margin in that business. Let's try to snap up this business that has a more premium product line. It has those over the counter drugs and so this acquisition potentially accelerates that shift. Moving on, Palantir reported earnings yesterday, and according to its CEO, it's in the nosebleed zone, reporting growth so rarefied you need to bring a tissue to even set eyes upon it. Its revenue grew 63% compared to last year. It raised its annual outlook for the rest of the year to $4.4 billion, and it extended its streak to 21 consecutive quarters, beating analysts estimates the stock is now up 175% this year, though it's currently down about 7% in premarket trading. Now, what does Palantir do other than have a stock that seemingly only goes up? The work is both mysterious and important. It sells AI software to governments with controversial contracts with the US's immigration enforcement arm and large companies like Ferrari and Airbus to help organize data and make better decisions. Alex Karp, its outspoken CEO, said that the company's climb to a $490 billion valuation with a forward price to earnings ratio of almost 280 has, quote, confounded most financial analysts and the chattering class whose frames of reference did not quite anticipate a company of this size and scale growing at such a ferocious and unrelenting rate. So, yes, Neil Carp thinks it's bursting blood vessels with its growth, and he isn't afraid to rub it in the faces of any who dare doubt this company.
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Neal Freyman
We haven't seen this kind of trash talking since Kevin Garnett. I mean, you look at this earnings call and he was absolutely rubbing it in the face of these analysts who are skeptical of Palantir. He said, by any normal or even reasonable standard, these are not normal results. They are not even strong results. These are arguably the best results that any software company has ever delivered. He added, we were right, you were wrong, and we are going to be very, very deep in our rightness. Please turn on the conventional television and see how unhappy those that didn't invest in us are. Enjoy. Get some popcorn. They're crying. And the people he's addressing are analysts who are looking at how expensive this stock is. It has a price to sales ratio 85. It's the most expensive stock in the S&P 500. And they're saying, we don't quite understand how this stock is so high. Revenue growth of 63% is nice, but it's not what in video is doing for the past couple of years. So, yeah, DA Davidson's Gil Laurier saying all these numbers are completely disengaged from fundamentals. RBC Capital Markets wrote, we cannot rationalize why Palantir is the most expensive name in our software coverage. So all of the analysts on Wall street are saying we don't quite understand it. And, and then Alex Karp, on the other hand, said we are riding a wave of retail enthusiasm because they're getting a lot of, a lot of power from those, the individual investors who believe in it. And you know, their results keep going up, except this stock is down a little bit like pretty much everything else this morning.
- [09:43]
Toby Howell
Meanwhile, Palantir is also making waves in the education space, which is not something you would normally associate with the company. It wants to start this fellowship that it's calling a meritocracy fellowship where it's inviting to 22 high school students from a ton of applications to participate in this four month intensive program where they will teach them about, you know, Western civilization, US history, political movements, as well as, you know, teaching them technical skills to eventually become forward deployed engineers within the company. So they're making this bet that traditional education system is born. You'd be better off, you know, skipping that, going on a fast track to working at palantir. And apparently 22 people agree with that. And I want to participate in this program. So it kind of mirrors a similar thing from Peter Thiel, the Thiel fellowship, which is you pay someone $100,000 to skip college altogether and start building a program. So it's no matter what it does, it almost wants to spur controversy. And this is just another instance of it kind of pushing the envelope here.
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Neal Freyman
Tomorrow, Chinese online retailer Sheehan will open its first physical store in the heart of Paris, a move that's generated outrage in the fashion capital of the world. What happened yesterday didn't exactly endear the anymore to the French public. On Monday, the French government threatened to ban Sheehan from operating in the country after an investigation by the consumer fraud agency found sex dolls resembling children on its platform in France. This has crossed a line, said France economy minister and pledged to boot Sheehan from France if it didn't remove these products. In response, Sheehan put its tail between its legs and announced a complete ban on sex dolls on its platform. A spokesperson said we are taking immediate corrective action and strengthening our internal mechanisms to prevent such a situation from happening again. This incident only poured gasoline on the fire already raging against Sheehan in France, whose politicians, unions and fashion leaders have railed against ultra cheap Chinese goods pouring into the market. An online petition against Shein's store opening on Wednesday has been signed by over 10000 people. Fashion workers have Staged protests and many brands have pulled their items from the department store set to house Sheehan's new boutique. Toby. France's war against Sheehan has hit a new register, but it seems like plans to open the store are still on.
- [11:56]
Toby Howell
Yeah, BHV is this department store. It's, you know, a department store for Parisians. It's not necessarily one that invites a lot of tourists. So it's a symbol of, you know, local pride, of Parisian craftsmanship. This is, you know, the home of, of haute couture fashion right here. So to have a someone like Sheehan come into that place is just kind of a cultural inflection point for a lot of people. It's a pressure point for a lot of people. But the owner of BHV is not backing down whatsoever. He wants to open this store on Wednesday. And as five more Shein shopping shops planned at different locations as well. The owner of SGM said on Instagram, business is real life. So he's basically betting that tons of people order from Shein and he thinks that it is going to outweigh the potential cons of, you know, just the cultural backlash by saying it's going to be good for business because a lot of people are going to come in and shop at this store.
- [12:53]
Neal Freyman
Kind of reminds me of the cracker barrel thing a little bit because this department store is, you know, it's been around for so long, but it's struggling. There aren't, it's not getting as many visitors. So these owners are looking to shake things up. They want to get more young people into this store. So what are they doing? They're opening a Shein, which has been super popular. It's one of the fastest growing retailers and anywhere in the world. So they're opening it up inside this department store to get new traffic. Obviously that's been, there's, that's generated a huge backlash among French politicians and even large swaths of the public. But they did open this pop up store, this Shein pop up store, during Paris Fashion Week back in September. And you know, it was mobbed. Like there were so many people, so many young people, there were influencers there. So there might, this Shein store opening might expose this generational divide over. Also in France, where you have a lot of folks who are saying this goes against everything we stand for in terms of environmentalism and craftsmanship and things like that. And then you have the other side where it's saying actually you are just social, you're just a very vocal minority. There are a ton of people who are getting priced out of a lot of goods and clothing and they actually want to shop at Shein. So it's a very high risk bet that they're making.
- [14:01]
Toby Howell
Yeah. And they're not exactly shying away from the controversy either. There is a giant billboard kind of hanging over the the department store of the president of sgm, the real estate group who owns bhv, and the executive chairman of Sheehan, Donald Tang, standing next to each other and posing together. So it's not something that they're trying to just secretly or quietly put into this department store. It's definitely something where they're almost inviting controversy and saying like, hey, we are doing this. Come shop. If you don't like it, don't come shop. So there's so much cultural symbolism tied up into this move, as well as just the business case of saying it will probably increase foot traffic. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with Toby's Trends. Marketing your brand these days probably feels harder than finding a good avocado at the grocery store at 5pm so why.
- [14:52]
Neal Freyman
Not let Instacart handle both? They can be there for you when you place your grocery order and your grocery ads.
- [14:58]
Toby Howell
Instacart built a one stop shop for grocery retail media across more than 1800 retail banners to help you reach all sorts of high intent consumers.
- [15:07]
Neal Freyman
You can catch people right as they're scrolling through the aisles, which is exactly when they're ready to buy.
- [15:11]
Toby Howell
Instacart's ad platform covers the entire shopping journey and it's all backed by real time optimization and closed loop reporting.
- [15:19]
Neal Freyman
Keep your brand top of mind and top of the grocery list with Instacart. Hit the checkout with instacart@ads.instacart.com that's ads.instacart.com what's the key to tapping into your ideal audience?
- [15:34]
Toby Howell
First, it's knowing that with Disney Campaign Manager, your audience isn't just a segment, it's a fandom. Then it's about sending that fandom the right message at the right time.
- [15:44]
Neal Freyman
Actually, yes, that's exactly it. Reaching high value audiences at scale.
- [15:49]
Toby Howell
And if you want to couple that with a massive reach, Disney Campaign Manager delivers advanced multilayered audience reach by leveraging Disney select segments to reach fans and markets by geography, device interest, content, genres and more. The platform blends automation with proactive human assistance. And yep, a real person will be helping you on the platform because human touch is important.
- [16:11]
Neal Freyman
With over 106 million monthly passionate and engaged viewers. This balance of huge reach and digital level precision is uniquely ownable. Brands don't just reach more people, they reach the right people at the right moments.
- [16:24]
Toby Howell
Catch the early risers with content like Good Morning America or the Crime Sleuths with content like Only Murders in the Building and combine your reach with iconic content. Whatever you choose, the fandom world is your oyster.
- [16:36]
Neal Freyman
Get started at Disney Campaign Manager.com that's Disney CampaignManager.com welcome to Toby's Trends, the.
- [16:45]
Toby Howell
Segment where I poke around the business world for a trend you should keep in your back pocket to impress a date. And today's trend is about companies trying again when it comes to AI ads. Coca Cola is going back to the AI well to remake its iconic the Holidays Are Coming campaign that features a caravan of red trucks streaming through the snow. Last year it employed AI to create something that got slammed for being more Uncanny Valley than compelling content. Think truck wheels that don't spin, and less holiday charm than your dentist's waiting room. But this year they decided to run it back, hoping improvements in image generating technology would lead to a better received ad. Last year, people criticized the craftsmanship, the company's head of generative AI told the Hollywood Reporter. But this year the craftsmanship is ten times better, and they sort of pulled it off. This year's ad features a menagerie of critters, from polar bears to pandas that replace any humans, and the truck's wheels do appear to actually be spinning. But there is still lots of industry backlash, with one writer from the Verge calling it sloppy eyesore that feels dated compared to videos from OpenAI Sora 2 or Google's VO3. However, the opinions of normal people do appear to be shifting, if only slightly, with just 46% of customers saying they're not okay with AI in ads, down from 49% last year. Neal it feels like this Coca Cola ad is turning into an annual temperature check, both on the technology's ability to actually pull off an ad for a major company and the public's attitude towards AI.
- [18:16]
Neal Freyman
This is not a small scale experiment either for a smaller company. This is Coke we're talking about. This is one of the biggest global advertisers anywhere, and Coke is synonymous with the holidays. Coke essentially invented our perception of what Santa Claus is, of what modern Santa Claus is. So this is a huge swing that they're taking for the second straight year. Obviously they looked at their own data and said that. Well, again, maybe like going back to the last story with Sheehan saying There's a large vocal minority of critics online, but the actual numbers tell the tale that we are resonating with consumers. They looked at their benchmarks and said, hey, this was good. This, you know, people receive this well and you know, the animation was quite terrible. So if we can improve this, then I think we can only create a better ad. And There were also third parties that looked at that scored 20, 24 holidays ads. System One is a UK based company. They looked at the effectiveness of this particular ad and they said, yeah, it actually did resonate with consumers. So Coke is looking at all of the data and saying, this is a calculated bet that we took last year. You know, we got a lot of criticism, but actually it surpassed our expectations and now we're going to go even bigger next time.
- [19:23]
Toby Howell
Yeah. The bet is something that you often hear from companies that employ AI is that people don't care how the ad is actually made as well, as long as it emotionally resonates. As long as people feel that holiday warmth spreading through their chest, they don't actually care who is behind the keyboard that was making the ad. Again, whether that's true or not maybe remains to be seen because it does look like there is significant backlash to companies that employ AI. But at least from an economics perspective, you can see why Coke is going down this particular rabbit hole. They say that the production time for a month for a ad generated with AI is one month versus the usual 12 months that it takes to put together a Coca Cola campaign of this size. They said still around 100 people worked on the ad. I think this is them trying to say, like, hey, we're not actually replacing jobs here. The same amount of people worked on the ad as they would have in the past, but now they have five AI specialists that generated and refined 70,000 of video clips for one single ad. So I think they're trying to have their cake and eat it too here, saying like, hey, we did it faster and cheaper, but we still actually use the same amount of people. But also we have five people who did most of the work here. So it's a little, it's growing pains, obviously, as they're trying to navigate this PR campaign side of it as well.
- [20:38]
Neal Freyman
And I don't want to steal Toby's trends, but if I had to say a trend, it would be that more advertisers are going to be using AI in their commercials. This year, 30% of connected TV commercials, social videos and online videos were built or enhanced using generative AI tools, according to the Interactive Advertising bureau. That's up from 22% in 2024, and next year that figure is expected to rise to 39% in 2026.
- [21:03]
Toby Howell
Just anecdotally speaking, I'm on YouTube a lot, but so, like, ads are just being fed to me. I have seen a noticeable uptick of just smaller things, like 15 second ones. I just saw one for a handwarmer ad where it's clear AI generated content. But again, what you're seeing is this, this product makes your hand warmer. So I think you're about to see maybe a flood of these types of ads start to populate your feeds as they just become easier to produce and cheaper to produce as well.
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Neal Freyman
Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. It was a day of the week that ends in y, which meant OpenAI inked another major deal to satisfy its insatiable hunger for computing power. This time the beneficiary was Amazon, the first time the two companies have done cloud business together. OpenAI pledged to spend $38 billion on cloud computing services from Amazon to help run its AI systems such as Chat GPT. Amazon stock shot up 4% on the day, a pattern we've seen with any company signing a partnership with OpenAI. But come on, Sam Altman, what is this? A deal for ants? 38 billion seems paltry compared to other recent open air commitments, including spending 300 billion with Oracle and 250 billion with Microsoft. Still, the agreement with Amazon will spark even more debate about whether OpenAI's hugely expensive bet will pay off, given it's slated to bring in just $13 billion in revenue this year.
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Toby Howell
$13 billion in revenue, and yet it has literally trillions of dollars in outlays. The thing that came to mind immediately upon seeing this deal was this exchange that Sam Altman had with an investor in OpenAI, Brad Gerstner, on a podcast that he was with with Satya Nadella, and basically Brad Gerstner asked the question that everyone's been asking is how can a company with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments? And everyone started to nitpick Sam Altman's response to this because it was weirdly confrontational and defensive, saying, like, hey, Brad, if you don't want your shares, like, there's plenty of buyers out there where you kind of like, change the subject. So it is an awkward kind of undercurrent here. What if OpenAI doesn't scale the revenue that it expects going forward? What happens to all these contracts? Is it just this circular economy that will collapse if one of the main players can't make good on all these contracts. So every time you start to see one of these announcements, you start to think in the back of your mind, all right, these bills are adding up what's actually going to happen when they come due. So, good, announce it. Stocks go up, everybody's happy. But maybe eventually we'll be talking a year later saying this probably was a little bit of a frothy period in the market in general. All right, moving on. If you're rolling down the Las Vegas strip in a pink limo for your bachelorette party, keep a vigilant eye out for any cybertrucks in your rearview mirror, because Las Vegas just secured 10 of the Tesla behemoths to usher in, quote, the future of policing. According to a Clark county sheriff, investor Ben Horowitz, who co founded Andreessen. Horowitz and his wife Felicia donated 10 black and white cyber patrol vehicles to the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department at the same press conference where the sheriff called the trucks the future of policing. He also said 400 officers had been trained to operate the vehicles, which have been updated with extended battery capacity, ladders, shields, and shotguns. The cybertrucks also have added benefits, like a shorter turn radius, he said. The optics, though, have raised some concerns about how private interest donations from billionaires affect the public sphere. Neil, each one of these things is valued somewhere between 80 and $115,000. It's a very conspicuous donation.
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Neal Freyman
It seems like a little bit of an overkill for police Cruiser, but LVMPD is quite happy about it because they are going to turn it into the best recruiting tool they've ever gotten. In their introductory expost on this, they say, hey, we've got 10 cybertrucks now. Want to drive one? Join the team. You can drive this $80,000 vehicle that you never probably would be able to afford otherwise, because very few people can. And now, if you join our force, you get a cruise around Vegas, you get a cruise around the Strip and elsewhere around here on a cybertruck looking pretty badass and cool. It's also been extremely divisive for this donation, but also just for the look of the cybertruck and what it means for policing. Critics have said that these cybertrucks are designed for intimidation and not safety. And even Elon Musk himself said that the cybertruck was designed with what Harrison Ford's character would have driven on patrol in Blade Runner. And that doesn't necessarily engender warm Feelings of a cohesive society. So extremely decisive, divisive thing that LVMPD just did. But yet now they're going to be cybertrucks, police cruisers cruising around Las Vegas. Oh, one other note that is interesting and why they thought that this would be a good car for police is that a lot of police cars idle all the time. And cybertruck electric vehicle doesn't burn any fuel while it does that. All right, finally, Martha Stewart is releasing a book today that aims to attract a new generation to her lifestyle business empire. But it's not a new book. It's a reissue of her first one ever, Entertaining, which first came out 43 years ago and had been out of print for years. Is getting a second life as Stewart tries to capitalize on nostalgia and the perennial desire to host the perfect dinner party, whether it's a Hawaiian luau for 20 or a midnight omelette party for 30. Even at 84, Stewart says Gen Z can relate to her as they would any other influencer. In a recent interview, she described herself as the original trad wife and said the youth love her quote, because I'm cool. Not only can I cook, I hang out with Snoop Dogg and I and I have gone to jail. I have been through the wringer and come out alive. Now a new group of readers will be able to learn where it all began.
- [26:33]
Toby Howell
Yeah, she's kind of the proto creator economy mogul here way before any of these terms existed. I mean, she was almost the original influencer in a lot of ways. So of course a lot of young people are just attracted to her story. I mean, it's Martha Stewart. Like, you can read all into all the influence she had, or you can just say she's an extremely compelling figure across generations right now. So it is absolutely no surprise whatsoever that young people are gleaming on to her current book right now, even though she's written literally 101 book. So it is interesting now that Martha is just as powerful. She's still at the peak of her powers. There's been plenty of documentaries that have come out as well that kind of added to her mythos as well. So even though that we saw this headline and like, oh, of course Martha Stewart's book is selling well. She really is just one of those people that seem to engender so much attention because she is just such a.
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Neal Freyman
Compelling and she makes smart, strategic moves all along the way. This book had been out of print for a long time. And if you go online to ebay or any other secondhand sites, I mean it cost 35 originally, but you see these books going for upwards of $1,000 and there's tons of tiktoks about this book and other aspects of Martha Stewart's life. So truly the OG influencer and she' still going strong. All right. That is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful Tuesday. For any feedback on the show or you just want to say hi, send a note to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom or DM us on Instagram @MB. Daily show, let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair makeup is taking off to work their local polling place, which can't be mad about Devin Emery is our president.
- [28:13]
Toby Howell
President.
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Neal Freyman
And our show is a production of Morning Brew.
- [28:16]
Toby Howell
Great show day, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.