US Economy is Regaining Ground & China’s Controversial $170B Mega-Dam

Summary

Morning Brew Daily Podcast Summary
Episode: US Economy is Regaining Ground & China’s Controversial $170B Mega-Dam
Release Date: July 22, 2025

Hosts: Neal Freyman and Toby Howell

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1. US Economy Regaining Ground

Overview:
The U.S. economy is demonstrating remarkable resilience amidst global uncertainties, featuring strong stock market performances and robust corporate earnings. Despite facing high tariffs, policy volatility, and technological disruptions, key economic indicators suggest a positive trajectory.

Key Highlights:

• Stock Market Surge:
  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new all-time highs, recovering swiftly after a significant dip of 19% between February and April. This bullish trend is bolstered by over 85% of companies surpassing earnings expectations in the latest reporting season.

  Neal Freyman (03:22): "Yesterday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit another all-time high mere months after stocks fell 19% between February and April."

• Corporate Earnings:
  Notable companies like Verizon reported strong earnings beats, fostering optimism for continued positive performances in upcoming weeks. Domino’s reported a 3.4% rise in U.S. same-store sales, surpassing analysts’ expectations of 2.2%.

  Neal Freyman (04:31): "Domino’s yesterday said US same store sales rose 3.4%, which was more than the 2.2% analysts estimated."

• Consumer Spending and Sentiment:
  June retail sales exceeded projections, indicating increased consumer spending. The Consumer Sentiment Index is on the rise, recovering from its lowest point in nearly three years.

  Neal Freyman (03:51): "People seem to be spending more with retail sales data handily beating projections in June."

• Economic Challenges:
  Despite the positive signs, challenges remain. Inflation remains slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target, and manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in June. Additionally, ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S., EU, and Brazil pose potential risks.

  Toby Howell (05:11): "Inflation has not materialized in the sense that a lot of people were expecting. It is a little bit above where the Federal Reserve wants it right now."

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2. China’s Controversial $170B Mega-Dam

Overview:
China has embarked on constructing the Muto Hydropower Station, poised to become the world’s largest hydropower dam. Valued at $167 billion, this infrastructure behemoth aims to significantly boost China’s renewable energy capacity but has sparked geopolitical and environmental controversies.

Key Highlights:

• Project Scale and Impact:
  The Muto Hydropower Station is set to triple the size of the Three Gorges Dam, with the potential to generate more power than Poland’s entire energy output. Citigroup projects that the dam will contribute an additional 0.1 percentage points to China’s GDP annually for the next decade, injecting nearly $17 billion each year.

  Neal Freyman (08:03): "Once operational, it will have the potential to generate more power than the entirety of Poland."

• Economic Stimulus:
  The dam is a cornerstone of China’s broader stimulus plan, targeting growth in construction-related industries such as cement and steel—sectors that have recently faced downturns.

  Neal Freyman (08:19): "It's going to be more expensive to build than the International Space Station. And the Three Gorges Dam... was built, completed in 2009 cost $37 billion."

• Geopolitical and Environmental Concerns:
  The dam is situated on the Yarlung Zangbo River, which flows through India and Bangladesh. Neighboring countries fear potential water control or diversion by China, which could exert significant influence over downstream economies. Additionally, environmental groups highlight the displacement of populations and the destruction of sacred sites.

  Toby Howell (10:31): "The river the dam sits on is called the Yarlung Zangbo which flows through India and Bangladesh as well... giving China immense leverage on downstream economies."

• Regional Tensions:
  India has formally expressed concerns over the dam, leading to ongoing discussions between the two nations. Water security remains a critical flashpoint in Sino-Indian relations.

  Toby Howell (10:59): "They don’t necessarily want China having all this influence on water that eventually flows into their country because water is a regional flashpoint."

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3. Figma’s Anticipated IPO

Overview:
Figma, a leading collaborative design platform, is gearing up for its Initial Public Offering (IPO), aiming for a valuation of $16 billion. The company has witnessed explosive growth, positioning itself as a formidable contender in the enterprise software market.

Key Highlights:

• Growth Metrics:
  In Q1, Figma reported a 46% increase in profitable sales, reaching $228 million. Net income surged to $45 million from $13.5 million the previous year. With 13 million monthly users and $1.5 billion in cash, Figma is set for a high-profile market debut.

  Neal Freyman (12:14): "Figma is growing fast and it's profitable sales in Q1 grew 46% to $228 million, and Figma scored net income of $45 million, up from $13.5 million a year before."

• Previous Acquisition Attempt:
  In 2022, Adobe attempted to acquire Figma for $20 billion, but regulatory challenges halted the merger. CEO Dylan Field remains optimistic about the company’s future, emphasizing ongoing innovation.

  Toby Howell (13:37): "Figma has been kind of a white whale for the IPO market for a long time... maybe the IPO waters will sail it away."

• Viral Marketing and User Growth:
  Figma’s collaborative nature has fueled its viral growth, allowing seamless sharing and real-time collaboration through its browser-based platform. This intrinsic virality has significantly contributed to its expansive user base.

  Toby Howell (13:29): "It's just this, you know, beneficial loop that the more people who you bring in... can live side by side on grocery shelves."

• IPO Market Climate:
  The anticipated IPO comes at a time when the IPO market is experiencing a resurgence, with companies like Circle and Core Weave seeing substantial gains. Figma’s debut will be a critical test for the current enterprise software IPO environment.

  Neal Freyman (13:53): "So this will be a big test for the IPO market. We're looking at you, Figma."

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4. Toby's Trends: Innovating Public Restrooms with Throne Labs

Overview:
Throne Labs is revolutionizing public sanitation by providing technologically advanced, prefabricated bathroom stalls. Addressing the significant shortage of public restrooms in the U.S., Throne Labs offers a sustainable and user-friendly solution.

Key Highlights:

• Product Features:
  Throne Labs’ stalls are self-sufficient, equipped with built-in water supplies and solar power. They utilize an app-based access system that assigns unique IDs to users, facilitating monitoring and maintenance.

  Toby Howell (17:21): "They can spin up a prefab bathroom stall overnight in the city center, then leverage technology to monitor, clean and secure those bathrooms."

• Community and Cleanliness:
  The system incorporates a peer-rating mechanism where users can rate cleanliness, promoting a community-driven effort to maintain high standards. Offenses like smoking or excessive use result in warnings or loss of access privileges.

  Toby Howell (18:09): "Community effect where people keep it cleaner than a normal public bathroom because of just that little added layer."

• Addressing Public Shortages:
  The U.S. has roughly eight public toilets per 100,000 people, significantly lower than countries like Iceland. Throne Labs aims to alleviate this deficit by providing scalable and manageable restroom solutions to cities struggling with public needs.

  Neal Freyman (17:55): "On average, the United States has about eight public toilets per 100,000 people... tied with Botswana."

• Environmental and Operational Efficiency:
  Each unit operates off-grid, reducing the need for extensive infrastructure. While the storage tanks require regular emptying, the overall maintenance is streamlined, benefiting both urban planners and users.

  Toby Howell (18:36): "Each prefabricated bathroom has a running supply from a built-in water supply, solar power on the roof, and then it flushes toilets into an empty storage tank."

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5. Final Headlines

Polymarket’s U.S. Market Re-entry:
Polymarket, a crypto betting platform, is making a comeback in the U.S. by acquiring QCX, a derivatives exchange approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This move follows the closure of federal investigations and aligns with a broader regulatory acceptance of crypto and prediction markets.

Opendoor’s Meme Stock Surge:
Opendoor experienced a meteoric rise in its stock price, soaring 312% over six days due to viral momentum reminiscent of the 2021 GameStop phenomenon. Despite a stagnant real estate market, investor enthusiasm, fueled by bullish forecasts, has propelled Opendoor into Meme stock territory.

Pepsi’s Prebiotic Cola Launch:
In a strategic move towards health-conscious consumers, Pepsi announced the launch of Pepsi Prebiotic Cola. This product mirrors the composition of Poppy, a prebiotic soda brand Pepsi recently acquired, indicating a consolidated effort to dominate the functional beverage market.

Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Latte Return:
Starbucks has officially announced the return of its iconic Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL) and other fall menu items, scheduled for August 26th. This eagerly awaited release underscores the perennial popularity of PSL as a cornerstone of Starbucks’ seasonal offerings.

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Conclusion:
This episode of Morning Brew Daily provided a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape, highlighting the U.S. economy’s robust performance and China's ambitious infrastructural endeavors. Additionally, the discussion on Figma’s impending IPO and innovative solutions in public sanitation showcased the dynamic interplay between technology, business growth, and societal needs. The final headlines encapsulated significant movements in the crypto market, real estate sector, consumer goods, and iconic brands, offering listeners a well-rounded snapshot of contemporary business and economic trends.

Transcript

[Toby Howell]

Foreign.

[Neal Freyman]

Daily Show. I'm Neal Freyman.

[Toby Howell]

And I'm Toby Howell.

[Neal Freyman]

Today, the U.S. economy says you like that. To all its haters.

[Toby Howell]

Ben, China has started work on one of the biggest infrastructure projects in history. It's Tuesday, July 22nd. Let's ride.

[Neal Freyman]

Time sure is strange. Some days feel like they go by super quickly. Maybe your wedding day was a complete blow. Other days feel like they take absolutely forever, like the waiting game before the Super Bowl. If today happens to go by fast, though, you won't be imagining it. The Earth is said to have its second shortest day on record, completing its full rotation 1.34 milliseconds less than the standard 24 hours. It's part of a recent trend of our planet spinning faster that could eventually lead to a second being subtracted from atomic clocks by 2029 or. Or in other words, a negative leap second. Toby, there is so much I want to do today, so little time.

[Toby Howell]

I wish we could take this short day, bank it, and then bust it out whenever it's most needed. I'm talking the day before summer break, if you're a high scorer. The day before the super bowl, if you're an Eagles fan. Personally, I probably would have used it the day before I proposed because the nerves were nerving then. But since today is the second shortest day for. Make the most of it. All right. And now a word from our sponsor, Amazon Ads. We've all seen our fair share of brands whose advertising doesn't reach their target demos.

[Neal Freyman]

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[Toby Howell]

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[Neal Freyman]

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[Toby Howell]

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[Neal Freyman]

Gain the edge with Amazon ads by visiting advertising.Amazon.com/start. Now that's advertising.Amazon.com/start now. The US economy has entered what economists like to call beast mode. A world more uncertain than ever. Policy positions that change by the day, the highest tariff levels in a century, and technological disruption. The economy continues to stiff arm anyone in its path. Yesterday, the s and P500 and Nasdaq hit another all time high mere months after stocks fell 19% between February and April. Earnings season has been off to a roaring start with more than 85% of companies reporting so far topping expectation. Verizon was the MVP yesterday with a strong earnings beat, raising hopes that more companies will do the same in the next few weeks. The economic data that's been released recently has also been quality. People seem to be spending more with retail sales data handily beating projections in June. Meanwhile, morale has been improving. The Consumer Sentiment Index is on an upward trajectory after falling to its lowest reading in almost three years in April. TOBY the current moment may be best summed up by JP Morgan CFO last week. He said after the initial shock of tariff policy changes, everyone kind of went on hold. But at a certain moment you just have to move on with your life. And it does feel like some of that is happening because you just can't delay forever. Was in shock, can't keep delaying, have to move on. TOBY Sounds like the economy found a rebound.

[Toby Howell]

I mean we started at the bottom post Liberation Day tariffs, the vibes were atrocious. Consumer sentiment collapse sp fell off a cliff as you mentioned. Everyone was kind of weird waiting for the economy to totally go off the rails and then it just never really happened. It looks like consumers and businesses are getting their swagger back. Inflation has not material materialized in the sense that a lot of people were expecting. It is a little bit above where the Federal Reserve wants it right now. But yeah, these strong earnings seasons has quelled a lot of fears from corporate America that they wouldn't be able to navigate kind of these elevated tariff environment. And yeah, the bank earnings that kicked things off were unexpectedly strong. Kind of set the tone. And every business that's come in afterwards has kind of reaffirmed that upbeat and buoyant attitude.

[Neal Freyman]

Let's go to those earnings Domino's yesterday said US same store sales rose 3.4%, which was more than the 2.2% analysts estimated. Delta said we're in a very different place than we were 90 years ago. United said there's a much less geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. And then to a T of those banks came out and said we're looking at how much you're swiping our cards and everything is up and to the right. JP Morgan said you're swiping your reserve or your preferred 7% more over last year. So consumers are still spending. There's that very strong report that came out for June. Things are certainly looking up on the corporate earnings side of things, there are.

[Toby Howell]

Signs of a weakness, though, as I'm sure a lot of people listening feel in just their everyday lives, because inflation, while down from those pandemic peaks, is still elevated. Manufacturing activity, which is an important measure of what, you know, Trump is trying to do in his second term, shrank for the fourth straight month in June. And then the tariff threat still looms. I mean, we're not out of the woods yet. We, the EU and the US Are still locked in a tariff debate negotiations right now, with Trump threatening a 30% levy across the bloc of our biggest, you know, reciprocal trading partner there. 50% tariff was threatened on Brazil as well. So even with some delays on these tariff threats, the overall tariff flat rate is still higher than it's been at any point in recent history. So the effects of tariffs could still be coming down the pipeline.

[Neal Freyman]

Yeah, we saw that yesterday also with Stellantis, which is the owner of Jeep. They said they're about to take a $350 million hit specifically due to tariffs. We are. How many days are in July? 38 days. Have September, 30 days, 31 days in July. So we are nine days out from the next, potentially the next round of tariffs seeping in. Those take a long time to filter through the economy. The tariffs that Trump announced in 2018 didn't hit capital spending until 2019. So we could eat our words, but as of now, economists, corporate leaders, consumers are spending more, and not economists are spending more, but consumers and businesses are spending more. The economy is in a much better spot than people had predicted at the beginning of the year.

[Toby Howell]

China is building a dam that will have you saying dang. China's announcement over the weekend that construction had begun on the world's biggest hydropower mega dam, called the Muto Hydropower Station. The country's premier said that it is the project of the century, and even that might be underselling it. It is slated to be three times the size of the Three Gorges dam, will cost $167 billion, more than four times what three Gorges did. And once operational, it will have the potential to generate more power than the entirety of Poland. China is the world's biggest carbon emitter, so it's been making a massive renewable energy push over the past decade, bringing tens of thousands of hydropower projects online, more than any other country. The goal is to reach net zero emissions by 2060. And this dam, located on a river that flows through the Tibetan Plateau, will play a big role in achieving that target. But a mega Dam also comes with mega controversies. The river the dam sits on is called the Yarlung Zangbo which flows through India and Bangladesh as well. The fear from those countries is that China will be empowered to control or divert the river, which some have noted could give China immense leverage on down river economies. But Neil, this thing is so, so dang big.

[Neal Freyman]

This is a big dam. There's no question this is a big dam. It is going to be more expensive to build than the International Space Station. And the Three Gorges Dam which was built, completed in 2009 cost $37 billion. That is the biggest power plant on earth today. This one is going to dwarf that $167 billion in costs. It's also expected to juice the economy and is part of a bigger stimulus plan that China's government is rolling out. It's expected by Citigroup projected that this dam by itself will add 0.1 percentage points to China's GDP every year for a decade. That's nearly $17 billion being juiced into the economy for the next decade every single year. It's also in a critical position with the sectors that it's hitting. What you need to build a dam, construction, cement, steel, things like that. The China property sector has been in a huge collapse over the past few decades. So the fact that we are there's going to be immense demand for steel, cement, other construction equipment, tunneling equipment that has, you know, really been heartening to investors in the Chinese stock market because those are the particular industries that have been hit so hard recently.

[Toby Howell]

I think it's wild that we're talking about a single project juicing the second biggest economy in the world. This is one single dam on one river and yet we are talking about it affecting gdp. That is wild. But it's also going to draw serious criticism from the those countries. Like I mentioned, India and Bangladesh as well as environmentalists. Tibetan groups have said there's sacred sites along the river and then there's population displacement that will happen. I mean the Three Gorges Dam has estimated to have displaced about 1 1/2 million people. This dam will likely do something similar and then it is just a source of tension between India and China. Specifically India registered its concerns with China last December. They've, it's been featured in talks between the two countries for months now. They don't necessarily want China having all this influence on water that eventually flows into their country because you know, water is a regional flashpoint. It is something that both generates power but also, you know, powers agricultural and it has sacred implications for residents of India as well. So water is definitely the source of tension between the two nations right now.

[Neal Freyman]

But if you're, if you're China, you're looking at this particular section of the revenue saying, this has the most hydropower potential that I've ever seen. This section that they're building the dam on, they're going to build five different dam structures. It falls 6,500ft in elevation, over 31 miles. So the amount of flow, if you're thinking from this river, is going to be immense. So the stand won't be completed anytime soon, but we will be keeping track of its progress. Huge news for people who say graphic design is my passion. The software company Figma kicked off its IPO roadshow with an aim to go public before the end of the month. If it pulls that off, it'll be the finance equivalent of a summer blockbuster at the box Office. Founded in 2012, Figma allows designers and developers to seamlessly collab on projects, crafting spiffy apps and websites in true group project fashion. It is a mammoth startup eyeing a $16 billion val in its IPO. And the numbers back it up because you won't believe what you're about to hear. Figma is growing fast and it's Profitable sales in Q1 grew 46% to $228 million, and Figma scored net income of 45 million, up from 13.5 million a year before. It has 13 million monthly users and $1.5 billion in cash. If you're not one of those 13 million users, but seem to have a recollection of the name Figma, that might be because it was embroiled in major merger drama just a few years ago. In 2022, it agreed to be bought by Adobe for $20 billion. But regulatory scrutiny proved to be too harsh and the two called off their marriage in December 2023. In a blog post that day, CEO Dylan Field wrote, figma's best, most innovative days are still ahead. And maybe he was right.

[Toby Howell]

He definitely seems to be right. Figma has been kind of a white whale for the IPO market for a long time. After this merger fell through, all eyes turned towards when is this thing going to go public, when is it finally going to provide the liquidity that these venture capital backers have been looking for? And it looks like we're right on the precipice of that. Let's go back to 2018. The company was just recently started by Dylan Fields, who actually went to Brown. Go Bruno. It was valued privately at $115 million. Fast forward four years later, it almost sold to Adobe for $20 billion. So the rise has just been exponential. And one of the reasons why it has just seen such explosive growth is its marketing engine. By its very nature as a product, it's collaborative. So if I'm working on something, I send a link over to Neil, who is an awesome designer. Obviously Neil plays around with Figma and goes, holy moly, this is so fun, I need to get in on this. So then suddenly your organization has Figma as well. And so you can see how it is just this, you know, beneficial loop that the more people who you bring in. And also the fact that it's browser based is a big thing too. So you can literally just go on your Chrome browser, open up Figma and start editing immediately rather than downloading some app or you know, what Adobe used to do, which is you have to download Photoshop and do this whole big rigmarole so that it has this viral marketing growth built into the very product itself.

[Neal Freyman]

So the IPO waters away and if it does go public by the end of the month, month, which it aims to be a huge shot in the arm to an EY IPO market that's having also a much better than expected. 2025 Circle went public in June. That's the stablecoin issue where it's already up sixfold from its IPO price. Core Weave, which is that a data center renter company. That's massive. It's up, it's quadrupled since its IPO in June. So the IPO market is pretty hot right now. It hasn't been for software companies. There's only been a dozen enterprise software companies that have gone public since 2020. So this will be a big test for the IPO market. We're looking at you, Figma.

[Toby Howell]

Up next, we're looking at Toby's trends.

[Neal Freyman]

Toby, what makes you feel your best?

[Toby Howell]

A nice bubble bath, some smooth jazz.

[Neal Freyman]

And when modern performance wear meets classic style.

[Toby Howell]

I was going to say chocolate covered pretzels, but that too sounds like you're talking about Mizzen and Maine.

[Neal Freyman]

That's because I am Toby. Their leeward dress shirt is the original performance fabric dress shirt with those moisture wicking, wrinkle resistant, four way stretch and machine washable shirts. It's easier than ever to feel your best while looking tres chic.

[Toby Howell]

I'm partial to the Helzman pant. It's just like a classic tailored pant with all the benefits of the shirt and an elastic waistband and stretch pockets.

[Neal Freyman]

Head to mizzenandmain.com and get 20% off your first purchase with code brew20. That's mizzen and me.com and code brew20. Toby, what if I told you there was one tool with the power of nine tools?

[Toby Howell]

You mean like some sort of nuclear power powered super hammer?

[Neal Freyman]

No Toby, not a super hammer gem. With gem you can replace up to nine recruiting tools like ATS, CRM, sourcing, scheduling and analytics. Its unique AI first recruiting platform comes with over 650 million candidate profiles, so you can reduce reliance on expensive talent sources and eliminate redundant tools.

[Toby Howell]

Gems customers love that they can consolidate completely or enhance their current setup. Most teams save 30 to 50% of while boosting productivity up to five times.

[Neal Freyman]

With gems AI agents embedded into every workflow, recruiters can spend less time system switching, more time relationship building.

[Toby Howell]

Plus you can use GEMS ROI calculator to estimate potential savings and productivity gains. To get started, check out gem.com/roi. That's gm.com/roi. We've all been there A summer day with some oysters and rose goes awry when your stomach turns against you. Suddenly you're in a race against time. A battle of brain versus Bowels. Desperately looking for a bathroom, but there's no Starbucks nearby. McDonald's is closed. You decide to brave a public restroom, which upon entering, is somehow grosser than what's currently going down in your stomach. I don't wish this experience on my worst enemy, but it's an experience that some toilet startups are trying to fix. On today's edition of Toby's Trends, we're going to look into those companies who are peddling toilets as a service. Throne Labs is one company the Wall Street Journal profiled who is taking a tech forward approach to taking number twos. They can spin up a prefab bathroom stall overnight in the city center, then leverage technology to monitor, clean and secure those bathrooms. To access a Throne stall, you have to check in using an app that assigns you a unique id. Throne monitors that unique ID and if you smoke in a stall, bring in multiple people, take too long, or even just blow that thing up, you are given a warning. Repeat offenders quote lose their potty privileges. As the Wall Street Journal put it, though your actual identity is safe behind your Throne identifier. Neil the benefits of Throne are numerous. From its lower construction costs to a peer rating system that asks everyone upon entry to rate the cleanliness of the bathroom. It could be a way to alleviate some of America's public toilet problems and make those emergency visits a little more smooth.

[Neal Freyman]

This is an area in which U.S. local governments have completely failed their citizens. On average, the United states has about eight public toilets per 100,000 people. That's a long line. That's according to the public toilet index. That is way behind Iceland. Country that has the highest density of public bathrooms, 56 per 100,000 people. In New York City, there's four public restrooms per 100,000 people. Madison is the number one US city with 35 per 100,000 people. But the US just doesn't do well on this metric. Another analysis suggests that the US is about 30th in the world, tied with Botswana. And you're starting to see the private, private market come in with these really interesting, innovative tech forward solutions. And local governments like D.C. and Los Angeles are absolutely champing at the bit to pay them and get these public toilets to make their people, you know, make their people a little bit happier.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah. And one of the advantages Throne also has is that these bathrooms are entirely off grids. A lot of people look at them and say, oh, so they're kind of just high end Porta Potty. So it's. The founders of Throne actually rejected that framing. But each prefabricated bathroom has a running supply from a built in water supply, solar power on the roof, and then it flushes toilets into an empty storage tank. The downsides to that is that you have to go and empty the tank fairly frequently. But the upsides are that it is completely self sufficient, which is good. It needs to be serviced less than a conventional bathroom, which is huge for these overstretched, you know, city officials. And then, yeah, the tech is a big aspect of this. The fact that you have some sort of friction to get in. The fact that you have to rate the cleanliness of it. It almost has this community effect where people keep it cleaner than a normal public bathroom because of just that little added layer of knowing if your identifier. The founders kind of liken it to an Uber rating. If your Throne rating gets too low, if you are doing some sort of shenanigans in the bathroom, then you just won't be able to access the stall anymore. So a fascinating concept here and one that I would love to see come to New York City because I have been in that. Oh no, oh no, oh no moment.

[Neal Freyman]

Was that based on a personal.

[Toby Howell]

Oh, absolutely. It was actually a long run that just went totally awry. All right, let's spin to the finish with some final headlines. Polymarket is Busting out its corsage as it looks to make a homecoming. The crypto betting platform, previously forced offshore by US regulators is re entering the US market after acquiring qcx, a little known derivatives exchange. QCX is Polymarket's meal ticket home after the exchange recently gained approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees prediction markets. The $112 million deal follows the closure of two federal investigations into Polymarket and marks a broader regulatory shift under the Trump administration toward embracing crypto and prediction markets. Now the Polymarket will look to cut into rivals Kalsh lead who has been operating in the US since 2021.

[Neal Freyman]

These prediction markets have never been more popular in the fact that Polymarket will now have access to the American user base will likely only supercharge growth. I mean just look at what happened with that astronomer controversy Coldplay situation. What went down on the prediction markets for that? It triggered $2.4 million in total trading volumes on Kalshi and 5.3 million on polymarket. People were betting on when he would resign. So that's $7 million total being wagered on this particular viral moment. Another popular contract that's been going around is whether Jerome Powell will see out 2025 or they'll be gone before then. That is over $2 million in wagers. People betters wagers are going to these prediction markets and mass following their big glow up during the 2024 presidential election. So the fact that Polymarket is coming home will only boost its standing and hopefully close the gap for it with Kalshee. As Kristen Bell once saying, love is an open door share price that's gone absolutely bananas. Now in Meme stock territory, opendoor stock gained 42% yesterday after skyrocketing 188% last week on tremendous volume. It's quite a glow up for a company that was threatened to be delisted by the Nasdaq for holding a share price of under $1 for 30 days earlier this summer. But in classic Meme stock fashion, this company doesn't have a whole lot going for it. Its main business is to use algorithms to buy houses from owners with cash, then flip them for a profit. But the real estate market is frozen over, with existing home sales plummeting 50% since Opendoor went public in 2020. At least one investor sees a comeback story. Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital, who predicted Carvana's rise from the dead, posted a bull case for Opendoor on social media last week, sparking at least some of this frenzy.

[Toby Howell]

Yeah, it was absolutely to A t classic meme stock because you did get this hedge fund guy laying out the bulls case. It was then the most actively traded stock on StockTwits on Monday morning. And then obviously you go to Reddit's WallStreetBets, it's all over that specific forum. So it's very reminiscent of the 2021 GameStop era. 312% jump in six days is just classic Meme stock. Nothing really changed about the underlying financials of the business. But somehow roughly 1.9 billion Opendoor shares exchanged hands on Monday's trading alone. That is over 1700% of the three month average. So just that massive amount of volume is what you see when a Meme stock just kind of hits the mainstream.

[Neal Freyman]

It accounted for 15% of Nasdaq's total volume yesterday. That's what people are zeroing in on. Just how many shares of this stock were changed hands over the course of yesterday. And we'll see what happens today.

[Toby Howell]

Pepsi is going after your gut. Yesterday the soda company announced it is launching a prebiotic cola under the Pepsi brand just months after acquiring one of the biggest players in the space, Poppy. Originally Pepsi had plans to launch a functional soda under a sub brand called Soul Boost, but scrapped those plans in favor of leveraging its namesake. The decision was no doubt driven by the fact that regular old Pepsi is one of the only bright spots for the company right now. Overall demand for its drinks continued to fall in Q2 with domestic beverage volumes shrinking by 2%. Only its namesake brand, fueled by the success of Pepsi Zero, was able to buck the trend line. Now Pepsi is doubling down on health conscious consumers rolling out Pepsi Prebiotic Cola starting in the fall. Neil still think they should have called it Popsi.

[Neal Freyman]

I don't quite understand. Maybe somebody smarter than me can understand this, but they acquired Poppy, this prebiotic soda brand and then also released a prebiotic soda brand under Pepsi. So I'm not exactly sure what is going on there. And this drink is very similar to Poppy in terms of its composition, has no artificial sweeteners, the same exact amount of sugar, which is 5 grams of cane sugar, not corn syrup, and about the same number of calories, 30 and 3 grams of prebiotic fibers. So they spent over $1 billion on poppy and then released a very similar product under a different name. I guess they're betting on the Pepsi brand carrying over and that these two, these two things can live side by side on grocery shelves. I know this is probably the last thing you want to hear today, a sparkling July Tuesday, but The PSL is coming back in just over a month. Yesterday, Starbucks announced that its famed Pumpkin Spice Latte along with the rest of its fall menu will return on August 26th. That sounds way too early for pumpkin spice anything. It's actually not. Relatively speaking. The PSL launch is four days later than last year's and Starbucks latest release since 2022. Still, you've been warned. Fall is coming.

[Toby Howell]

Fall is coming and so is the pumpkin cream. Cold brew, the ice pumpkin cream chai, the pecan crunch, oat milk latte. I would love to be able to fly on the wall of like what can we cram pumpkin in this time? So this is just the time of the year that Starbucks looks forward to every time because this is their best selling holiday drink. I do love the backstory of it. It almost was called the Fall Harvest Latte. And you just have to imagine that 20 years later we wouldn't still be talking about the Fall Harvest Latte. There is just something about PSL that speaks to the very core of what fall is. So I'm excited for it. I actually tried it for the first time last year. I'd never had it before. It is a little rich, but it is pretty dang delicious.

[Neal Freyman]

It's day two of our week long game of Password where you try to guess a secret word from a series of clues. Yesterday's clue was the password is an anagram. Major city. That's it. And over 200 people had the guts to send in an answer. Toby, what is today's clue?

[Toby Howell]

Today's clue is the password ends with a number that's spelled out. The password ends with a number that's spelled out. If you think you have the answer, you can submit it at the link in the show description or head to our Instagram where we'll also post it there.

[Neal Freyman]

Good luck everyone. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Lu is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup says, will you look at the time. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.

[Toby Howell]

Great show today, Neal. Let's run it back tomorrow.

[Neal Freyman]

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[Toby Howell]

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[Neal Freyman]

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[Toby Howell]

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