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US-UK Reach Major Trade Deal & Bill Gates Giving Away $200B Fortune
00:27:58
The first trade deal in Trump tariff era & Bill Gates gives up his fortune
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- [00:01]
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Neal Freyman
Brew Daily Show I'm Neal Freyman.
- [00:38]
Toby Howell
And I'm Toby Howell.
- [00:39]
Neal Freyman
Today AI is resurrecting dead people to give testimony in court and teach writing classes. Innovative or creepy?
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Toby Howell
Then Trump announced a framework for a trade deal with the uk. We're sending them Guy Fieri and we're getting back David beckham. It's Friday, May 9th. Let's ride.
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Neal Freyman
As white smoke billowed from the Sistine Chapel Chapel's chimney yesterday, signaling the election of a new pope, the screech of a bald eagle could be heard in the distance. Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, a Chicago born Villanova University math major, was elected as the first American Pope in history, taking the name Leo the 14th. As the new pope made his first appearance on the balcony overlooking St. Peter's Square. The crowd went wild, and so did people in his native United States who were delirious that a Chicago boy known to his friends as Bob was now the leader of the world's1.4 billion Catholics. Many questions remain about what direction he'll take the church in, but at least one mystery has been solved. According to the new Pope's brother, he is a White Sox fan, not a Cubs guy.
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Toby Howell
First of all, everyone who bet on the Pope yesterday was totally wrong. Prevost was at 0.3% on polymarket right before the announcement, so whoever backed an American Pope made a pretty penny. But yesterday was an all time day on the Internet. I'm just going to run through some of the best jokes I saw. First, a Chicago Pope Rome will finally have some good pizza. Followed by a lot of jokes about Chicago Deep dish being the new body of Christ. Then lots of tariff content. The tariffs worked. We're even making Popes in America now. And then finally, lots of Chicago sports jokes. Prevost is a Chicago White Sox fan. The Chicago Sun Times found a picture of him back at the 2005 White World Series, which means a fan in the stands became the Pope before the White Sox made it back to the World Series. Also, Chicago produced a Pope before a QB who is throwing for over 4,000 yards. So American Pope really, really great for lots of good jokes. And now a word from our sponsor, Planet O Neal. You know what? I love a great duo.
- [02:51]
Neal Freyman
Batman and Robin, peanut butter and jelly. Toby and Neil, iconic combos.
- [02:56]
Toby Howell
And I'm going to add one more to the list. Planet out and Breakfast.
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Neal Freyman
Instant hall of Famer right there. Blends like dairy, milk, frosts like a dream and somehow makes your morning cup feel twice as good.
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Toby Howell
It's rich, creamy and smooth enough to go toe to toe with any fancy cafe creation, but it's right in your fridge.
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Neal Freyman
And if you go for the barista lovers version, only 3 grams of sugar, but still feels indulgent or unsweetened if.
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Toby Howell
You want zero sugar without giving up that velvety texture.
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Neal Freyman
Planet Oat and Coffee the duo you didn't know your mornings were missing.
- [03:26]
Toby Howell
Or as I like to think of it, the Toby and Neil of breakfast. Get your hands on the oat milk that has it all. Visit planeto.com for more. Like ice cubes in the summer, some trade tensions with key US Partners are beginning to melt President Trump announced a still to be finalized trade agreement with Britain yesterday that lowers tariffs on British steel, aluminum and cars in exchange for the UK buying more US goods like beef, ethanol and aircrafts. The blanket 10% tariff that Trump applied to all US trade partners was will remain in place. While details are still murky, we know that the UK got the green light to ship 10000 cars to the US at a 10% rate, down from an original 27 and a half percent. That's a win for luxury brands like Range Rover and Aston Martin, who now have a slightly smoother road into American garages. Rolls Royce engines in planes will also fly into the US tariff free, and an unnamed UK airline just agreed to buy $10 billion worth of Boeing aircrafts. This deal framework is probably not going to make a major impact on trade figures, though. The US imported just 96,000 UK made vehicles last year, compared to 3 million from Mexico, our number one auto supplier. And Britain was only the United States ninth biggest trading partner last year, behind Vietnam and ahead of India, while trade in the first quarter totaled just 2.9% of all U.S. imports and exports. As for the rest of Europe, the European Union unveiled a plan to pressure the U.S. into trade talks by proposing tariffs on $107 billion worth of American goods and launching a WTO dispute, it might already be working. Trump said yesterday that we intend to make a deal with Europe soon. As for China, top US And Chinese trade officials are set to meet this weekend in Switzerland to work on de escalating their trade war, even though a deal remains unlikely for now. So trade talks, Neal, they are happening.
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Neal Freyman
And stocks, they are going up. The S and P surged yesterday. It has risen 11 of the past 13 days. So stocks are going back up after plunging post April 2nd. And that is probably not because of this particular trade framework with the UK as you mentioned, it covers a very small piece of, you know, global trade and US Trade with the UK but it appears to be that Trump is willing to engage with, with these trade partners and work out, you know, arrangements like exporting beef and ethanol products into the UK Market. You know, applied more broadly, that could lead to, you know, a little softening in all of these trade wars happening all around the world.
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Toby Howell
And maybe why you saw stocks react so positively, even though that the deal is relatively small, it did signal that Trump is very willing to, you know, get over these trade conflicts and make a deal. The anecdote that kind of showed that was that Trump called Keir Starmer late on Wednesday to finalize the detail. The Prime Minister was actually watching the the Arsenal Champions League game and took the call. Arsenal ended up losing, by the way. Starmer said that they hadn't planned to announce a trade deal on Thursday. So this was definitely kind of a last minute thing. But it shows that Trump is open to negotiating and maybe this is more of a deal, a win for Britain than anything else. Given lots of post Brexit governments have been chasing a broader trade deal with the United States. This agreement falls short of that deal, but it is kind of the first deal that, you know, they have gotten that they've been waiting for for many years. But Ryan Peterson from the logistics company Flexport tweeted out, as one of the only countries with a trade surplus with the United States, the UK was still only able to negotiate a 10% tariff rate that does not bode well for the rest of the world. So that's one interpretation of this deal.
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Neal Freyman
I think one of the big takeaways is that 10% tariff on the rest of the world that Trump implemented is not going away. It's never going to get below 10% which economists say would drag on economic growth. I thought this was probably the most illuminating part of this press conference that Keir Starmer and Trump had. So Starmer was asked by a reporter if Britain would still face higher tariffs under the deal than it faced before Trump was elected. Starmer replied. The question you should be asking is is it better than it was yesterday? And maybe that is true, but it certainly is not true than before Trump elected and put 10% tariffs. So if you're looking at the global trade infrastructure right now, there's just going to be 10% tariffs as a baseline throughout. Obviously the biggest cheese here is US China trade talks. Scott Bessen and another trade representative are going to Switzerland to meet with Chinese representatives this weekend. That will be more consequential than anything that was announced here between the United states and the UK. But yes, I think the biggest winners are probably McLaren, Aston Martin and Jaguar Land Rover because they're only going to face 10% tariffs instead of 25. The Bill Gates foundation is marking its 25th year anniversary and how do you celebrate 25 years of being the most influential philanthropy in the world? You announce your retirement, at least not for a while. Microsoft co founder Bill Gates said that the Gates foundation would close its doors in 20 years. That's 2045 if you're counting, while ramping up its giving to deplete Gates his personal wealth by 99% before he dies. So far in 25 years, the Gates foundation has given $100 billion to causes like global health, anti poverty efforts and education around the world. It aims to double that spending to $200 billion before it calls time in 2045. That's because Gates said the foundation's ultra ambitious goals can be accomplished in that timespan with all this additional cash. They have three key targets in mind. That no mom, child or baby dies of a preventable cause. That the next generation grows up in a world without deadly infectious diseases. And that hundreds of millions of people break free from poverty, putting more countries on a pat to prosperity. Gates noted the awkwardness of the timing for winding down the phone foundation mentioning Elon Musk's sweeping doge cuts of foreign aid. Still, he believes now is the time to act for his philanthropy to make the biggest impact in the shortest period of time.
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Toby Howell
I mean, he already has made a gigantic impact. This pledge probably puts him into the largest philanthropic gifts ever. Far bigger than John D. Rockefeller and Andrew Carnegie, even when you adjust for inflation. Only Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett could potentially nip him at the end because he has a larger fortune than Bill Gates does right now. But yeah, if you go through the Bill gates his history $100 billion since its founding. By the way, speaking of Warren Buffett, 41% of the foundation's money so far has come from Warren Buffett. So they have kind of been the number one and number two biggest philanthropic donors over the last, you know, quarter century right now. And now Gates just says, I want to accelerate the timeline. Like, this has been my second calling, my second career. I want to make this impact while I'm still alive here. Which is why you saw this pledge basically just speed up the timetable for his giving.
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Neal Freyman
And there was certain number of metrics that they like to point to to show that their impact on global health is working. Their most prized metric is probably that there's been a drop in childhood deaths from preventable causes by almost half between 2020, according to Take, you know, full credit for that. But they say they their money was a huge catalyst in making this happen. The share of the world's population living in extreme poverty also has fallen by almost 75% between 1990 and 2014. But since 2014, that's pretty much stagnated. So I think that's why you see Gates really accelerating the timeline here, saying, these are things that we can accomplish if we just kind of overload the system with $200 billion in cash. I don't want this to be a perpetual thing that gives out, you know, a few billion dollars here and there. Let's give out $10 billion a year and make this thing go from 75% to 100% in terms of alleviating poverty. And he also made headlines, we have to mention, for, you know, absolutely bashing Elon Musk. He said in an interview to the Financial Times, the picture of the world's richest man killing the world's poorest children is not a pretty one. This is an extension of a feud that Gates and Musk have had for years. And, you know, Gates really is very much against what Doge has done, cutting usa, USAID budgets and foreign aid around the world.
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Toby Howell
Air usage has reached a new frontier after a family used the tech to resurrect their dead brother to give an impact statement during a trial in an Arizona courtroom this week. An uncanny representation of Christopher Pelkey, who died from a gunshot wound four years ago, played in front of a courtroom of his now convicted killer's trial. The video was created by Pelkey's sister, who set off on a mission to humanize her brother using the technology. She collected A total of 48 victim impact statements and relied on her husband and friend to cobble together the simulation using a variety of different AI tools. In another life, we probably could have been friends, the video version of Palke said. Towards the end of the hearing, the judge said, I loved that. I thank you for that. Experts say that this is likely the first time in the US that an AI generated rendering of a deceased victim has been used to deliver an impact statement. But it's far from the only attempts companies are making to bring people back from the dead. Case in point, BBC Maestro, a service kind of like Masterclass, launched a writing course last week taught by an AI version of the mystery writer Agatha Christie, in cooperation with her estate, trained on her writing in interviews. Neal. The courtroom resurrection was well received, and both Christie and Pelkey were resurrected by members of their families. But still, creating digital clones of dead relatives is always going to be a controversial capability of AI, but one that companies are increasingly exploring for sure.
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Neal Freyman
My first question was, is this legal in Arizona? It is. Victims can give impact statements in any digital format. So this family, this sister, you know, really catalyzed this particular AI rendering of Pelke to give the impact statement. It was well received. Some critics have come out saying, well, this is a slippery slope here. If you're bringing AI into the courtroom, we could have deep fake evidence and other shenanigans. And there was an instance last year of a man without a lawyer using an AI generated avatar to argue his case in a video. And that video started playing, and the judge was like, wait, what was that? Okay, that's an AI, like, we cannot allow this to proceed. So there is, you know, some concerns around, you know, how far I will, you know, influence a courtroom's proceedings. At least in this case. They consider this, you know, one of the least unobjectionable versions because it is an impact statement endorsed by the family. But you can see how I will certainly impact legal proceedings going forward.
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Toby Howell
And digital ghosts in general are certainly a thing that are coming down the pipeline. Companies are trying to train algorithms on people's digital data to seize people's digital data so they can offer, you know, comfort for friends or family. They think that these ghosts can give people a sense of agency when it comes to, you know, confronting deaths. But then you go on the downsides in the risk, which are numerous as well, because one, they. A lot of data privacy laws are probably not well equipped to, you know, deal with companies that are mining through a dead person's data and then recreating a sim, a simulation of them. But then also, healthy grieving experts are saying that you're disrupting the grieving process by giving people access to their loved ones once they have a pass. So digital ghosts are certainly a controversial sector of the market, not even when you consider the fact that they could be introduced to legal proceedings as well.
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Neal Freyman
I mean, but I will say, if you're not concerned by that and you want to live an AI afterlife, what you should do is go into a room and video yourself talking for a half hour. Because you need to give the people who will create the AI avatar of you a lot of material and data to build, you know, your future AI dead self on. So this is what the sister of Pel Helke did, actually. She said, now I'm confronting my own mortality. She went and recorded a video of herself in for 10 minutes and Agatha Christie was recreated because there's a lot of footage of her. So that was the only way that they were able to do that. So I will say, if you want to live a digital afterlife, go into a room, video, keep yourself laughing. Yeah, speaking, laughing and speaking. If you are a person who laughs and that will, you know, be the key to help you live after your physical body is gone.
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Toby Howell
Up next, let's talk about stock of the week. Dog of the week. This message is a paid partnership with Apple Card. I'm a person who really appreciates simplicity. And when it comes to credit card rewards, the simpler the better. That's one of the many reasons I have an Apple card. The rewards are super straightforward. I earn up to 3% daily cash back on my everyday purchases. There are no points to calculate, no limits or deadlines. Plus it's super easy to access my card and make payments from the wallet app of my iPhone. If that sounds like the kind of simplicity you want in a credit card, apply for Apple Card in the Wallet app on your iPhone. Subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Salt Lake City Brands terms and more@applecard.com Neil, you know that one friend who holds the group together. Like when you're on a trip abroad, they've checked the weather, done the research and know the currency conversion.
- [16:56]
Neal Freyman
Without them, we'd be lost, literally and figuratively.
- [16:59]
Toby Howell
And here's the good news. Wise Business can be that friend for your global business.
- [17:04]
Neal Freyman
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- [17:08]
Toby Howell
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- [17:18]
Neal Freyman
Sounds like a business's best friend.
- [17:20]
Toby Howell
To learn more about how you can use Wise Business to save time, money and stress. Visit wise.com/business that's wise.com/business let's hit our.
- [17:32]
Neal Freyman
Stock of the Week Dog of the Week, the segment where Toby and I pick one stock that's planned an elaborate gift for Mother's Day and another that's scrambling at the last minute. I won the pre show packing a car trunk before a road trip contest, so I get to go first. And my stock is Shark Ninja. The appliance maker soared 13% yesterday after pulverizing earnings even more than its blenders pulverize your fruit. And not only did its sales outperform expectations last quarter, it's cranking up the setting too high by investing in new areas of growth. The company is expanding from vacuums, blenders and other home products into lucrative markets like beauty and skin care. Analysts found patent filings for new products like light therapy devices, power operated brushes for exfoliating skin shavers and oral care products. And they're super amped about this move because of the higher margins they offer. Getting into skin care would come on top of existing beauty investments by Shark Ninja, which has already dipped a toe into the sector with hair dryers and stylers. Of course, developing new product lines also means you go up against more stiff competition and many companies have failed miserably in trying to take the one thing they do well and replicating it elsewhere. But Shark Ninja is undeterred and seeing solid results so far. For instance, it directly took on Yeti, a beloved brand, by recently launching its first cooler product, which it says is completely sold out.
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Toby Howell
Shark Ninja is kind of crushing it and they are running the Dyson playbook here. If that sounded like a lot of products that Dyson makes, you are correct. Shark Ninja started with, you know, vacuums and blenders and then Dyson started with vacuums. Then they expanded into hair care. I am especially bullish if you are Shark Ninja on this electric styling iron because the Dyson air brush has become the de facto way that, you know, you get ready with. And it is, I've seen it in action. It is a remarkable piece of machinery. So the fact that Shark Ninja has identified this as well definitely looks like it's a growth opportunity. And then I will say that Shark Ninja is pretty well insulated from tariffs as well. They said that they've had this pretty multipronged approach to where they're sourcing their materials from. And so they think that they will have virtually no exposure to China by the end of the fiscal year. You know, most, most companies say that maybe two Three, five years down the line, they can move out of China. They have seen the writing on the wall here and have diversified their supplier base, their manufacturing base, to really remove a dependency on China. Which is another reason why I think the market is especially bullish on this Massachusetts based company. My dog of the week is Krispy Kreme, who reported earnings yesterday that were neither hot nor ready, is reassessing its big rollout with McDonald's and pulled its full year guidance due to economic conditions. Softer than a dozen fresh doughnuts, Krispy Kreme's big partnership with the Golden Arches was supposed to be a big national opportunity. But after rolling out to 2400 of McDonald's 13,500 domestic locations, the companies hit pause to reassess. We are shocked by the speed at which the story fell apart, truist analyst Bill Chappell wrote in a note. Especially since a year ago Krispy Kreme announced their donuts would be sold in all McDonald's US locations by the end of 2026. While initially promising, customers didn't bite on the prospect of pairing their quarter pounder with even more calories. And sales have fallen below projections. Krispy Kreme had also been quickly expanding their capacity in order to serve McDonald's sprawling restaurant footprint, which weighed on the company's overall profits. So now, Neal, Krispy Kreme is a shell of its former self. Its stock fell 24% yesterday and is now down 70% over the last year.
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Neal Freyman
The combination McDonald's and Krispy Kreme hasn't worked out as well as the combination Pizza Hut and Taco Bell may be more of a McDonald's story than a Krispy Kreme story. McDonald's is coming off its worst quarter since peak Covid. Sales are falling, traffic is falling across the fast food sector. It's been hit really hard by inflation, really hard by souring economic sentiment. So perhaps Krispy Kreme just inked a deal with the sector at the worst possible time. And you know, it is pain on top of more pain because they were increasing their capacity to fulfill all of these new McDonald's locations. And it partnership has really hit the skids.
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Toby Howell
Yeah, and they also had a big cybersecurity instance back in November too, which hurt its online ordering systems. Online makes up 15.5% of the company's donut shop sales, so it is a rather digital first company as well, which you wouldn't really expect from Krispy Kreme. So yeah, the hits just keep coming, which is tough because they're good donuts. I mean, come on, the product is there. So good luck, Krispy Kreme. Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. New Zealand has long been home to more sheep than humans. But like the Matrix, humans are staging a comeback. According to latest government figures, there are just four and a half sheep for every one person on the ovine dominated island. That is down from a ratio of 22 to 1 back in 1982. While nearly five sheep to a man is still a lot of sheep. A shifting agricultural landscape has led to a drop off in the amount of woolly creatures roaming New Zealand's green fields. Back in the 80s, farming sheep for wool and meat was the nation's primary economic driver. But the rise of synthetic fibers has a kneecap to the industry, leading many farmers to remake their fields to pursue dairy farming or pine forestry in order to sell carbon offsets which both make more money. Neal New Zealand has always been the butt of a lot of sheep related jokes. So make them now because humans are staging that comeback.
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Neal Freyman
I mean, in the 80s those were very appropriate because in 1982 more than 70 million sheep were in New Zealand compared to 3.2 million people. So that is a great ratio if you're a person. And you're right, Australia, and Australia had been making a lot of jokes at New Zealand's expense about the amount of sheep that they had. But now the gap is narrowing and it's possible that Australia will have more sheep per person than New Zealand in the coming years. There are about three sheep per person per Australian currently. And you said there's four and a half sheep per person in New Zealand, so we'll see when they reach parity. Finally, a Soviet spacecraft from the 1970s could crash your Saturday barbecue, or more like crash into at some point in the next day. Cosmos 482, which failed to land on Venus when it was launched 53 years ago, is expected to hurtle uncontrolled back to Earth. Unfortunately, scientists have no idea where this half ton hunk of metal is going to land. But they project it could fall anywhere from 52 degrees north to 52 degrees south, where virtually all of you are listening to this from. But you probably don't need to strain your neck looking up all weekend. The creaky spacecraft could burn up upon reentry. And more importantly, most of the Earth is water. So the likelihood that it startles a few fish in the ocean is far more likely than it plunking down on your head.
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Toby Howell
Yeah, the Cosmos 42 is only about a meter wide but weighs 1190 pounds. So it is short but it is stout and modeling suggests that it will hit the ground at around 150 miles an hour, which honestly doesn't sound crazy fast because right now it's currently traveling at. You should try it now. That's not going to feel good if that hits you. But it is not expected to break up into that big, you know, meteor esque shower that happens when objects typically burn up in the in the earth's atmosphere because it is meant it was designed to reenter in one piece. So you got to be really, really unluckily if the 1 meter wide object, first of all hits land in general, not in the ocean, and second of all, if it somehow found its way into someone's personal property, that would just be deeply, deeply unlucky.
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Neal Freyman
But it's going to hit somewhere. Yeah, it's got, it's going to hit somewhere. We hope it's the ocean. Okay, that's it. That's our shows for the week. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful Friday and an even better weekend. If you have any thoughts on the show, send an email with your questions, comments or feedback to Morning Brew daily at Morning Broadcom. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milian is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and the birthday girl, Olivia Lake. Happy Birthday, Olivia. Scoop Stardaris is on all the audio, hair and makeup wishes all the MBD moms a happy Mother's Day. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
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Toby Howell
Great show today, Neil. I wish you all well.